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An intraseasonal genesis potential index (ISGPI) for Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer is proposed to quantify the anomalous tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) frequency induced by boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). The most important factor controlling NH summer TCG is found as 500-hPa vertical motion (ω500) caused by the prominent northward shift of large-scale circulation anomalies during BSISO evolution. The ω500 with two secondary factors (850-hPa relative vorticity weighted by the Coriolis parameter and vertical shear of zonal winds) played an effective role globally and for each individual basin in the northern oceans. The relative contributions of these factors to TCG have minor differences by basins except for the western North Atlantic (NAT), where low-level vorticity becomes the most significant contributor. In the eastern NAT, the BSISO has little control of TCG because weak convective BSISO and dominant 10–30-day circulation signal did not match the overall BSISO life cycle. The ISGPI is shown to reproduce realistic intraseasonal variability of TCG, but the performance is phase-dependent. The ISGPI shows the highest fidelity when BSISO convective anomalies have the largest amplitude in the western North Pacific and the lowest when they are located over the north Indian Ocean and eastern North Pacific. Along the NH major TCG zone, the TCG probability changes from a dry to a wet phase by a large factor ranging from 3 to 12 depending on the basins. The new ISGPI for NH summer can simulate more realistic impact of BSISO on TC genesis compared to canonical GPI derived by climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of NCEP-NCAR I reanalysis data of 1948-2009 and ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis data of 1958-2001 reveals several significant interdecadal changes in the storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction in the extratropics of Northern Hemisphere. First, the most remarkable transition in the North Pacific storm track (PST) and the North Atlantic storm track (AST) activities during the boreal cold season (from November to March) occurred around early-to-mid 1970s with the characteristics of global intensification that has been noticed in previous studies. Second, the PST activity in midwinter underwent decadal change from a weak regime in the early 1980s to a strong regime in the late 1980s. Third, during recent decade, the PST intensity has been enhanced in early spring whereas the AST intensity has been weakened in midwinter. Finally, interdecadal change has been also noted in the relationship between the PST and AST activities and between the storm track activity and climate indices. The variability of storm track activity is well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation prior to the early 1980s, but this relationship has disappeared afterward and a significant linkage between the PST and AST activity has also been decoupled. For a better understanding of the mid-1970s' shift in storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction, further investigation is made by analyzing local barotropic and baroclinic energetics. The intensification of global storm track activity after the mid-1970s is mainly associated with the enhancement of mean meridional temperature gradient resulting in favorable condition for baroclinic eddy growth. Consistent with the change in storm track activity, the baroclinic energy conversion is significantly increased in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The intensification of the PST and AST activity, in turn, helps to reinforce the changes in the middle-to-upper tropospheric circulation but acts to interfere with the changes in the low-tropospheric temperature field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents reviews of recent research on the structure and the multiscale variability in the East Asian monsoon. The boreal summer and winter seasons in the East Asian monsoon region exhibit significant intraseasonal, interannual and interdecadal variabilities. The interannual intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is mainly associated with the position of the centre of the Bonin High, which may be distinguished from the North Pacific anticyclone. The frequencies of heavy rainfall events and associated rainfall amounts increase, and extreme heavy rainfall is higher in August than in July, due to changes that occurred in the August rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship around the mid-1970s. This intraseasonal variability in EASM plays a more important role in the explanations of the interannual variability and climate change than does the annual mean. The interannual variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) depends on the behaviour of the Siberian High (SH), Aleutian Low and the subtropical westerly jet stream. An EAWM index that takes into account the meridional shear of a 300 hPa zonal wind is a good indicator to represent the intensity of the EAWM. The Arctic Oscillation has a close relationship with the EAWM intensity on the decadal time scale. Distinct sub-seasonal variability is characterized with northward propagation and is observed in the interdecadal change in the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation (ISO)-ENSO relationship. The preceding winter ENSO influenced the early summer northward propagating ISO (NPISO) activity before the late 1970s, whereas a strong NPISO-ENSO relationship appeared during the later summer after the late 1970s. The NPISO-ENSO relationship is robust owing to a tropical atmospheric bridge process involving the Walker Circulation and Rossby Wave propagation. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distinct differences of the storm track-jet relationship over the North Pacific and North Atlantic are investigated in terms of barotropic and baroclinic energetics using NCEP-2 reanalysis data for the period of 1979-2008. From fall to midwinter the Pacific storm track (PST) activity weakens following the southward shift of the Pacific jet, whereas the Atlantic storm track (AST) activity remains steady in position and intensifies regardless of the slight southward shift of the Atlantic jet. This study is devoted to seeking for the factors that can contribute to this conspicuous difference between the two storm tracks on climatological subseasonal variation by analyzing eddy properties and local energetics. Different eddy properties over the two oceans lead to different contribution of barotropic energy conversion to the initiation of storm tracks. In the North Atlantic, meridionally elongated eddies gain kinetic energy efficiently from stretching deformation of the mean flow in the jet entrance. On the other hand, the term associated with shearing deformation is important for the initiation of PST. Analysis of baroclinic energetics reveals that the intensification of the AST activity in midwinter is mainly attributed to coincidence between location of maximum poleward and upward eddy heat fluxes and that of the largest meridional temperature gradient over slight upstream of the AST. The relatively large amount of precipitable water and meridional eddy moisture flux along baroclinic energy conversion axis likely provides a more favorable environment for baroclinic eddy growth over the North Atlantic than over the North Pacific. In the meantime, the midwinter minimum of the PST activity is attributable to the southward shift of the Pacific jet stream that leads to discrepancy between core region of poleward and upward heat fluxes and that of meridional thermal gradient. Weakening of eddy-mean flow interaction due to eddy shape and reduction of moist effect are also responsible for the weakening of storm track activities in midwinter when the strongest baroclinicity exists over the North Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]