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1. Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6

Author

Roach, Lettie A, Dörr, Jakob, Holmes, Caroline R, Massonnet, François, Blockley, Edward W, Notz, Dirk, Rackow, Thomas, Raphael, Marilyn N, O'Farrell, Siobhan P, Bailey, David A, and Bitz, Cecilia M

Subjects
Climate Action, sea ice, CMIP6, Antarctica, climate models, Southern Ocean, model evaluation, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract

Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979–2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger-than-observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios.

Published
2020

2. Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Author

Notz, Dirk, Dörr, Jakob, Bailey, David A, Blockley, Ed, Bushuk, Mitchell, Boldingh Debernard, Jens, Dekker, Evelien, DeRepentigny, Patricia, Docquier, David, Fučkar, Neven S., Fyfe, John C., Jahn, Alexandra, Holland, Marika, Hunke, Elizabeth, Iovino, Doroteaciro, Khosravi, Narges, Gurvan, Madec, Massonnet, François, O'Farrell, Siobhan, Petty, Alek, Rana, Arun, Roach, Lettie, Rosenblum, Erica, Rousset, Clement, Semmler, Tido, Stroeve, Julienne, Toyoda, Takahiro, Tremblay, Bruno, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, Vancoppenolle, Martin, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Computational Research Division [LBNL Berkeley] (CRD), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado [Boulder], Oceanography Section [Boulder], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)

Subjects
model evaluation, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, sea ice, CMIP6, Arctic, climate models, model evaluation, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 551.41, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, Arctic, climate models, Sea ice, 14. Life underwater, CMIP6, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Global warming, Ensemble average, Arctic ice pack, sea ice, The arctic, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Internal variability, Climatology, Environmental science, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Climate model
Abstract

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area, Plain Language Summary: We examine simulations of Arctic sea ice from the latest generation of global climate models. We find that the observed evolution of Arctic sea‐ice area lies within the spread of model simulations. In particular, the latest generation of models performs better than models from previous generations at simulating the sea‐ice loss for a given amount of CO2 emissions and for a given amount of global warming. In most simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area, Key Points: CMIP6 model simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area capture the observational record in the multimodel ensemble spread. The sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to changes in the forcing is better captured by CMIP6 models than by CMIP5 and CMIP3 models. The majority of available CMIP6 simulations lose most September sea ice for the first time before 2050 in all scenarios., National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Center for Atmospheric Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005323, NSF http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, CSIRO http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000943, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program, European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, 727862 APPLICATE, Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, Research Concile of Norway, Arctic Across Scales Project, Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038, Fond de recherche du Qubec‐Nature et Technologies, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002789, EU Horizon 2020 OSeaIce project, German Ministry for Education and Research, H2020 MSCA IF, Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis program, NSF‐OPP, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000192, Canada C150 Chair Program, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011693, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, EC | H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions (MSCA) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011102, F.R.S. ‐ FNRS | Fonds pour la Formation la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA), Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse (Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004063, Max Planck Society http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004189, Research Council of Norway http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005416, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000015

Published
2020
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3. Mechanisms of Regional Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic.

Author

Dörr, Jakob, Årthun, Marius, Eldevik, Tor, and Madonna, Erica

Subjects
*SEA ice, *ATMOSPHERIC circulation, *HUMIDITY, *WINTER, *GLOBAL warming, *FRESH water
Abstract

The Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to sea ice are driven by exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within and between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a combination of observations and output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we analyze and contrast present and future drivers of the regional winter sea ice cover. Consistent with observations and previous studies, we find that for the recent decades ocean heat transport though the Barents Sea and Bering Strait is a major source of sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic, respectively. Future projections show a gradually expanding footprint of Pacific and Atlantic inflows highlighting the importance of future Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean. While the dominant hemispheric modes of winter atmospheric circulation are only weakly connected to the sea ice, we find distinct local atmospheric circulation patterns associated with present and future regional sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, consistent with heat and moisture transport from lower latitudes. Even if the total freshwater input from rivers is projected to increase substantially, its influence on simulated sea ice is small in the context of internal variability. Significance Statement: The winter sea ice cover in the Arctic is declining due to global warming, but the decline is quite variable because of the chaotic nature of the climate system. We want to understand what causes this variability, both for the present and the next decades, and for different regions of the Arctic. We find that now and in the future, variability in the winter sea ice is influenced by transport of oceanic heat and atmospheric heat and moisture from the Pacific and Atlantic side of the Arctic. These findings improve our understanding of what influences changes in the winter sea ice cover, and could help to improve predictions of sea ice in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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