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Ecological niche models (ENMs) have classically operated under the simplifying assumptions that there are no barriers to gene flow, species are genetically homogeneous (i.e., no population-specific local adaptation), and all individuals share the same niche. Yet, these assumptions are violated for most broadly distributed species. Here, we incorporate genetic data from the widespread riparian tree species narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) to examine whether including intraspecific genetic variation can alter model performance and predictions of climate change impacts. We found that (1) P. angustifolia is differentiated into six genetic groups across its range from México to Canada and (2) different populations occupy distinct climate niches representing unique ecotypes. Comparing model discriminatory power, (3) all genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) outperformed the standard species-level ENM (3-14% increase in AUC; 1-23% increase in pROC). Furthermore, (4) gENMs predicted large differences among ecotypes in both the direction and magnitude of responses to climate change and (5) revealed evidence of niche divergence, particularly for the Eastern Rocky Mountain ecotype. (6) Models also predicted progressively increasing fragmentation and decreasing overlap between ecotypes. Contact zones are often hotspots of diversity that are critical for supporting species' capacity to respond to present and future climate change, thus predicted reductions in connectivity among ecotypes is of conservation concern. We further examined the generality of our findings by comparing our model developed for a higher elevation Rocky Mountain species with a related desert riparian cottonwood, P. fremontii. Together our results suggest that incorporating intraspecific genetic information can improve model performance by addressing this important source of variance. gENMs bring an evolutionary perspective to niche modeling and provide a truly "adaptive management" approach to support conservation genetic management of species facing global change., (© 2020 by the Ecological Society of America.)

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species' niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12-fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aim: Species are largely thought to maintain broadly static niches over time, an assumption underpinning much theoretical ecology including the implementation of ecological models to project species' current and future distributions. Here, we assess niche conservatism in odonates in Great Britain over the past six decades by simultaneously quantifying changes in species geographic distribution and evaluating temporal trends in species realised climatic niche. Location: Great Britain. Methods: Distributional changes were assessed by calculating changes in species distribution centres and deriving occupancy trends. Changes in climatic niches were assessed using a principal component analysis to quantify niche overlap, using information on both climate averages and extremes. Results: We show that dragonflies and damselflies displayed distinct responses to changing climatic conditions. Dragonflies shifting to higher latitudes maintained, on average, greater consistency in their climatic niches, providing evidence for climate tracking. Greater climate niche flexibility and increased occupancy over time, on the other hand, were more common in damselflies. Main Conclusions: We unveil evidence for climatic niche divergence in damselflies on a national scale, casting doubt on the relevance of species distribution models for predicting the impacts of climate change on this, and potentially other, groups of species. More broadly, our results call for more multi‐species temporal comparisons of spatial distributions and climate niches during recent periods of changes in climatic conditions to improve our ability to contrast species' vulnerability risk to the ongoing climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical geological events and Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have played important roles in shaping distribution and population differentiation across taxa. The buff-bellied hummingbird (Amazilia yucatanensis) is widely distributed along the Gulf of Mexico slope and the Yucatan Peninsula. Here, we obtained measurements and sequenced two mitochondrial DNA fragments from currently recognized subspecies: Amazilia yucatanensis yucatanensis (YUC), Amazilia yucatanensis cerviniventris (CER) and Amazilia yucatanensis chalconota (CHA). Additionally, we tested for their genetic and morphological differentiation, demographic expansion, palaeoclimatic distribution and niche overlap. Our results reveal genetic differentiation between two groups of populations: (1) from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz (YUC+CER); and (2) from Veracruz to Tamaulipas (CHA). Neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots suggest past demographic expansion without changes in the effective population size over time. The potential distribution was fragmented at the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and expanded northwards during the Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene to current conditions. Niche overlap was higher between YUC and CER. The environmental space occupied by subspecies was more similar to each other than expected by chance but significantly non-equivalent. Our results provide new insight on the distribution of this widespread hummingbird species and suggest that fragmentation during glaciations and differences in habitat have played a role in the recent diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the high degrees of adaptation to specific microhabitats and restricted-range endemism, Goniurosaurus (Tiger geckos) serves as a unique model to study the complex evolution in lizards. Using phylogenetic analyses, we estimated the first divergence date of Goniurosaurus to the Eocene (~ 45.3 mya). The diversification within four monophyletic species groups began in the mid-Miocene between ~ 13.4 and 7.7 mya and continued to at least the early Pleistocene (~ 2 mya). Their ancestor was predicted to originate somewhere in contiguous continental Eastern Asia, whereas the current regions in which each monophyletic Goniurosaurus species group radiated are respectively their own ancestral regions. Together with factors of altitudinal gradient and climate conditions, we reconstructed relevant niche models of Goniurosaurus including ancestral reconstructions. Consequently, low elevations were predicted to be the most probable ancestral state for Goniurosaurus and all its groups as well. Both climatic niche conservatism and divergence have shaped the extraordinary species richness of allopatric Chinese and Vietnamese tiger geckos. In terms of endangerment, Goniurosaurus has been considered one of the most susceptible lizard groups under severe human impacts, especially climate change. The assessments of their niche evolution can provide a science-based pre-signal of vulnerability, thereby improving the efficacy of conservation measures to safeguard species of Goniurosaurus in the future. Accordingly, almost all closely related species of Goniurosaurus in China and Vietnam were identified with a high rate of niche conservatism, which should be included in conservation priorities under potential impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here, we explored how variations in the allopatric speciation scenario, specifically ecological vs. vicariant allopatry, relate to climatic niche change in sister species. We selected two sister species pairs of North American hummingbirds (Calypte anna, C. costae , Basilinna leucotis, B. xantusii) that diverged 2.5 and 3.6 million years ago, under ecological (arid climate tendency during Pliocene) and vicariant (Baja California peninsula separation) allopatric processes, respectively. We constructed the climatic niche of each species using occurrence records and estimated the distance, similarity, and unique fraction of climatic niche between sister species. Calypte species showed moderate niche divergence (Euclidean distance between centroids = 1.94, Sørensen index of similarity = 0.080, unique fraction of hypervolume in C. costae = 0.57, and C. anna = 0.95). However, contrary to expectations, Basilinna species, which diverged under a vicariant scenario, displayed clear niche divergence (Euclidean distance between centroids = 3.78, Sørensen index of similarity = 0.0001, and unique fraction of hypervolume in B. xantusii = 0.98, and B. leucotis = 0.99). We explained dissimilarity in climatic niches between Basilinna species by the ecological divergence between habitats of disjunct populations, which would have also been associated with increased aridity during the Pliocene. [Display omitted] • Type of allopatry affects the degree of niche conservatism in the speciation process. • We tested it in hummingbirds speciation under geographical and ecological allopatry. • Soft ecological allopatry in Calypte species led to expected niche divergence. • Hard geographical allopatry in Basilinna species led to unexpected niche divergence. • Environmental changes in the Pliocene and niche truncation may explain these patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Combining genetic data with ecological niche models is an effective approach for exploring climatic and nonclimatic environmental variables affecting spatial patterns of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we adopted this combined approach to evaluate genetic structure and ecological niche of the Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran, as the most western part of the species range. Using mtDNA, we confirmed the presence of two highly differentiated clades. Then, we incorporated ensemble of small models (ESMs) using climatic and nonclimatic variables with genetic data to assess whether genetic differentiation among clades was coupled with their ecological niche. Climate niche divergence was also examined based on a principal component analysis on climatic factors only. The relative habitat suitability values predicted by the ESMs for both clades revealed their niche separation. Between‐clade climate only niche comparison revealed that climate space occupied by clades is similar to some extent, but the niches that they utilize differ between the distribution ranges of clades. We found that in the absence of evidence for recent genetic exchanges, distribution models suggest the species occurs in different niches and that there are apparent areas of disconnection across the species range. The estimated divergence time between the two Iranian clades (4.9 Mya) coincides with the uplifting of the Zagros Mountains during the Early Pliocene. The Zagros mountain‐building event seems to have prevented the distribution of U. edwardsii populations between the western and eastern parts of the mountains as a result of vicariance events. Our findings indicated that the two U. edwardsii genetic clades in Iran can be considered as two conservation units and can be utilized to develop habitat‐specific and climate change‐integrated management strategies.

Different groups of taxa exhibit varying degree of climatic niche conservatism or divergence due to evolutionary constraints imposed on taxa and distributional relationships among them. Herein, we explore to what extent regional environmental conditions that taxa occupy affect climatic niche overlap between pairs of congeneric species of Peromyscus mice exhibiting allopatric, parapatric, or sympatric distributions. We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to identify environmental variables that best explain differences in climatic niche overlap between species. Our results suggest that regional environmental conditions explain 13–44% of variation in climatic niche overlap. Specifically, allopatric and parapatric species pairs are more likely to occupy similar climatic niches in areas that are topographically less complex but with more complex habitats. Sympatric species are more likely to occupy similar climatic niches in areas that promote local niche partitioning (topographically less complex, warmer winter temperatures, higher precipitation, and higher habitat complexity on a local scale). By understanding the relationship between regional environmental conditions and niche overlap, we highlight how differences in geography can contribute to shaping niches of congeneric species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining genetic data with ecological niche models is an effective approach for exploring climatic and nonclimatic environmental variables affecting spatial patterns of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we adopted this combined approach to evaluate genetic structure and ecological niche of the Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran, as the most western part of the species range. Using mtDNA, we confirmed the presence of two highly differentiated clades. Then, we incorporated ensemble of small models (ESMs) using climatic and nonclimatic variables with genetic data to assess whether genetic differentiation among clades was coupled with their ecological niche. Climate niche divergence was also examined based on a principal component analysis on climatic factors only. The relative habitat suitability values predicted by the ESMs for both clades revealed their niche separation. Between‐clade climate only niche comparison revealed that climate space occupied by clades is similar to some extent, but the niches that they utilize differ between the distribution ranges of clades. We found that in the absence of evidence for recent genetic exchanges, distribution models suggest the species occurs in different niches and that there are apparent areas of disconnection across the species range. The estimated divergence time between the two Iranian clades (4.9 Mya) coincides with the uplifting of the Zagros Mountains during the Early Pliocene. The Zagros mountain‐building event seems to have prevented the distribution of U. edwardsii populations between the western and eastern parts of the mountains as a result of vicariance events. Our findings indicated that the two U. edwardsii genetic clades in Iran can be considered as two conservation units and can be utilized to develop habitat‐specific and climate change‐integrated management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Termite mounds have intrigued humans for millennia. Despite great interest in their beautiful and often complex structures, the question of why termites acquired mound-building behaviour has received little attention. Here, we focus on two Australian lineages of the Nasutitermitinae (composed primarily of Nasutitermes and Tumulitermes spp.), which have evolved mound-building behaviour in parallel from arboreal and soil/wood-nesting ancestors, respectively. We used environmental niche modelling and ancestral niche reconstructions to investigate whether abiotic factors, including precipitation, temperature and soil composition, were associated with the repeated acquisition of mound building. Although we found strong evidence for ecological speciation leading to niche divergence in the nasutes, ultimately no abiotic variable was consistently correlated with mound-building behaviour. We also observed no trend in the variables limiting the environmental tolerances of mound builders. This suggests a more complex evolutionary history of mound building that cannot be explained by the abiotic factors we examined. Instead, biotic factors not considered here, e.g. colony expansion and protection, might have played a key role in the acquisition of this trait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: The ways in which abiotic factors contribute to parallel evolution—the evolution of similar, derived phenotypes in independent, closely related lineages—remain understudied. Australian cockroaches of the subfamilies Panesthiinae (“wood feeders”) and Geoscapheinae (“soil burrowers”) are two closely related groups that provide a striking example of parallel evolution of burrowing behaviour. The ancestral wood‐feeding panesthiines migrated from Asia ~20 million years ago before soil burrowing was independently acquired multiple times in the derived geoscapheines. Here, we investigate whether specific abiotic factors were associated with the parallel evolution of soil burrowing behaviour, and whether divergence events of geoscapheines from panesthiine ancestors are consistent with niche conservatism or divergence. Location: The Australian mainland, including the areas in which selected Australian Panesthiinae and Geoscapheinae cockroach species are distributed. Methods: We generated environmental niche models for members of the Australian Geoscapheinae and Panesthiinae using presence‐only data and abiotic variables related to temperature, precipitation, and soil composition from BioClim and the Australian Soil Resource Information System. We used an existing phylogenetic framework to compare environmental niche models and tested for niche conservatism versus divergence. Morphological convergence was assessed by a regression analysis and principal components analysis of leg segment and body dimensions in soil burrowers and wood feeders. Results: We found no relationship between niche similarity and time since divergence, and only limited evidence for phylogenetic signal with respect to the environmental variables examined. We found that soil burrowing behaviour is consistently correlated with thirteen abiotic factors associated with aridity, including a wider range of temperatures and lower precipitation levels. Evidence for convergence in leg morphology and body dimensions across soil burrowers was found. Main conclusions: Our results are consistent with soil burrowing behaviour evolving in response to ancient aridification events following the arrival of the Panesthiinae in Australia. Our results suggest a scenario of niche divergence between soil burrowers and each of their wood feeding sister taxa. There is evidence for morphological convergence on a “shovel‐like” protibiotarsus in the Geoscapheinae that would aid in burrowing into soil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. The extent to which ecologically divergent selection acts to maintain species boundaries in the presence of hybridisation and gene flow is not well understood. Two parapatric taxa, Carbula humerigera (Uhler) and Carbula putoni (Jakovlev), were used to test the extent to which niche differentiation might sustain divergence of related taxa despite ongoing gene flow. 2. Mitochondrial [cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI), cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (COII) and cytochrome b (Cytb)] and nuclear [elongation factor 1‐alpha (EF‐1α)] markers were sequenced from 383 individuals. Clusters of morphological variations were estimated and visualised using principal component analysis (PCA). Haplotype networks were constructed using median‐joining and neighbour‐net algorithm methods. Gene flows were estimated using migrate‐n analyses. Suitable habitats for each species and their sympatric distribution were predicted with ecological niche modelling (ENM). Niche comparisons were conducted using Schoener's D and Warren's I. In addition, PCA, multivariate analysis of variance ( manova) and discriminant function analysis were used to test ecological differentiation. 3. Morphological clusters and network analysis indicated that samples were generally divided into three groups (C. humerigera, C. putoni and hybrids). Ongoing gene flow was detected among the three groups, with abundant magnitudes in the sympatric region. Niche comparison and statistical analysis showed ecological differentiation between C. humerigera and C. putoni. Two potential hybrid zones were predicted in the ENM reconstruction, located along the Yanshan‐Taihang‐Qinling and Taishan mountains. 4. These results reveal a geographically delineated hybrid zone between C. humerigera and C. putoni. These two closely related Carbula species still live in different ecological niches despite hybridisation and ongoing gene flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To analyse the underpinnings of historical drivers of diversity and their contributions to current distributions and future roles in a changing climate, we studied the relationship between ecological niche divergence and phylogenetic signal in tropical carnivorous pitcher plants. Location Southeast Asia. Methods Estimates of realized ecological niches were reconstructed and plotted along a newly created multilocus molecular phylogeny. Phylogenetic signal was analysed by comparisons of calculated phylogenetic relatedness with ecological niche divergence. Current and projected future potentially suitable habitats were mapped for several species of plants with variable evolutionary histories and distributions. Results Highland and lowland species had distinct phylogenetic signals. Higher altitude species had significantly lower molecular divergence as compared with the lowland species, yet ecological niches with less overlap. When projected onto a future climate scenario, highland species lose a greater amount of potentially suitable habitat compared to lower altitude species, and the majority of studied higher altitude species will face an overall loss of future suitable habitat. Main conclusion We conclude that distinct phylogenetic signals not only unravel differing evolutionary histories but also show that the implications of species' tolerances to future changing climate vary. Over the past million years, historical climate change shaped the differing evolution and ecological niches of highland and lowland tropical pitcher plant species. Rapid, recent radiations of the higher altitude species are reflected in limited molecular divergence, which is in sharp contrast with the more gradually evolved and genetically distinct lower altitude species in our study. Our projections for future potentially suitable habitats show that on-going climate shifts will have detrimental effects on especially the higher altitude species due to a narrower niche tolerance and dramatic loss of potentially suitable habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Diversification rates are critically important for understanding patterns of species richness, both among clades and among regions. However, the ecological correlates of variation in diversification rates remain poorly explored. Here, we test several hypotheses relating diversification rate and niche width across amphibian families (frogs and salamanders). Location Global. Methods We characterized climatic niches for 5784 amphibian species using databases for species distributions and climate. We estimated the niche width of each family using the range of values for climatic variables across all sampled species, and using the mean of species niche widths. We estimated diversification rates for families given their total number of described species and a time-calibrated phylogeny. We estimated relationships between variables using phylogenetic comparative methods. Results We found a significant positive relationship between family niche width and diversification rate, but a weak relationship between mean species niche width and diversification rate, despite both niche width variables being correlated. In fact, the deviation from this relationship (i.e. residuals of family niche width versus mean species niche width) was the best predictor of diversification rate. The observed relationship between niche width and diversification was independent of clade range size and niche position (e.g. whether clades occurred in tropical or temperate climates) and significantly different from null patterns derived from random sampling effects. Main conclusions Our results identify climatic niche width, and especially the relationship between family and species-level niche widths, as a major correlate of diversification rates among amphibian families. These results suggest that climatic niche divergence among species within clades can be important in explaining large-scale diversity patterns, possibly even more so than a clade's geographic area or whether it is primarily temperate or tropical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]