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Under accelerating threats from climate-change impacts, marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as climate-adaptation tools to enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems. Yet, debate persists as to whether and how MPAs may promote resilience to climate shocks. Here, we use 38 years of satellite-derived kelp cover to empirically test whether a network of 58 temperate coastal MPAs in Central and Southern California enhances the resistance of kelp forest ecosystems to, and their recovery from, the unprecedented 2014-2016 marine heatwave regime that occurred in the region. We also leverage a 22-year time series of subtidal community surveys to mechanistically understand whether trophic cascades explain emergent patterns in kelp forest resilience within MPAs. We find that fully protected MPAs significantly enhance kelp forests' resistance to and recovery from marine heatwaves in Southern California, but not in Central California. Differences in regional responses to the heatwaves are partly explained by three-level trophic interactions comprising kelp, urchins, and predators of urchins. Urchin densities in Southern California MPAs are lower within fully protected MPAs during and after the heatwave, while the abundances of their main predators-lobster and sheephead-are higher. In Central California, a region without lobster or sheephead, there is no significant difference in urchin or kelp densities within MPAs as the current urchin predator, the sea otter, is protected statewide. Our analyses show that fully protected MPAs can be effective climate-adaptation tools, but their ability to enhance resilience to extreme climate events depends upon region-specific environmental and trophic interactions. As nations progress to protect 30% of the oceans by 2030, scientists and managers should consider whether protection will increase resilience to climate-change impacts given their local ecological contexts, and what additional measures may be needed., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Rising ocean temperatures, a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, are increasing the frequency, intensity, and magnitude of extreme marine heatwaves (MHWs). These persistent anomalous warming events can have severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts, threatening ecologically and economically vital organisms such as bivalves and the ecosystems they support. Developing robust environmental and social frameworks to enhance the resilience and adaptability of bivalve aquaculture is critical to ensuring the sustainability of this crucial food source. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the physiological and ecological impacts of MHWs on commercially important bivalve species farmed globally. We propose an integrated risk assessment framework that encompasses environmental monitoring, farm-level preparedness planning, and community-level social support systems to safeguard bivalve aquaculture. Specifically, we examine heatwave prediction models, local mitigation strategies, and social programs that could mitigate the impacts on bivalve farms and vulnerable coastal communities economically dependent on this fishery. At the farm level, adaptation strategies such as selective breeding for heat-tolerant strains, optimized site selection, and adjustments to culture practices can improve survival outcomes during MHWs. Robust disease surveillance and management programs are essential for early detection and rapid response. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of stakeholder engagement, knowledge exchange, and collaborative governance in developing context-specific, inclusive, and equitable safeguard systems. Proactive measures, such as advanced forecasting tools like the California Current Marine Heat Wave Tracker developed by NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center, enable preemptive action before losses occur. Coordinated preparation and response, underpinned by continuous monitoring and adaptive management, promise to protect these climate-vulnerable food systems and coastal communities. However, sustained research, innovation, and cross-sector collaboration are imperative to navigate the challenges posed by our rapidly changing oceans., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The effect of climate change on species distribution has been the focus of much recent research, but the community-level approach remains poorly studied. Our investigation applies a present assemblage-environment relationship model for the first time to the predict changes in subtidal macroalgal assemblages in the northern Iberian Peninsula under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios by 2100. Water temperature is the most relevant factor in shaping assemblage distribution, whilst nutrient availability plays a secondary role. The results partially support our hypothesis that there may well be a potential meridionalisation of northern Iberian assemblages in the future. Under the most pessimistic scenario, the model projects that the north-western assemblages will remain distinct from the rest, whereas the central and eastern assemblages of the north coast of the Iberian Peninsula will come to resemble those of the Mediterranean region more closely than those of the northwest coast. This research may help predict how the biodiversity of the coastal ecosystem will respond to new environmental conditions. This is essential information for developing proper management and conservation policies., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

The successful protection and management of marine ecosystems depend on understanding the capability of biota for recovering after stressor mitigation actions are taken. Here we present long-term changes (1984-2012) in degraded subtidal assemblages following the implementation of the sewerage scheme for the metropolitan area of Bilbao (1 million inhabitants). Qualitative and quantitative species composition of disturbed vegetation shifted over time, making it more similar to that of the reference assemblages considered. Species density in the disturbed habitats increased, which is also a positive sign of recovery. However, eleven years after the clean-up was completed, canopy-forming macrophytes showed no signs of recovery. We argue that the ecological resilience of the ecosystem may have been eroded after a long-standing pollution perturbation and that underlying climate change could be influencing the recovery trajectory of the degraded assemblages. The implications of these conclusions for the implementation of European marine environmental legislation are discussed., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Agroforestry is a widely proposed solution for climate change adaptation and resilience in agriculture due to the multiplicity of socio-ecological benefits. However, agroforestry as a practice exists on a dynamic scale of ecological complexity, which may cause different management regimes to respond distinctively to climate change. Due to the limited literature on climate change impacts on agroforestry in the temperate region, this paper reviews disturbance regimes and the observed and predicted responses of forests and farms using the US Northeast as an example. We also reference scholarship from tropical regions, where agroforestry adoption/study is more advanced, to enhance understanding of the growing field of agroforestry in temperate systems. We view transitions to and from agroforestry from a complex systems lens by identifying the disturbance, complexity, resilience, and adaptive capacity of systems to drive and respond to rapid change via human management, focusing on invasive species, phenological changes and range shifts in plants, pests, and pathogens of agroforestry systems. Management considerations including structural diversity, species selection and the intentional/non-intentional incorporation of introduced species can promote community ecological resilience to build systems that have adaptive capacity to withstand changing conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest biome is warming four times faster than the global average. Changes so far are moderate, but time lags in responses may transiently maintain forest states which are no longer supported by current environmental conditions. Here, we explore whether tree cover dynamics hint at the state to which the biome may be shifting. Our results suggest that global boreal tree cover is heading for a unimodal state of open forest (30 to 50%), contrasting starkly to the bimodal distribution of dense forests (>60%) and sparse woodlands (5 to 15%) found today. A future open forest in a warmer world would likely increase the risk of forest fires, leading to potentially substantial releases of stored carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current rates of habitat and biodiversity loss, and the threat they pose to ecological and economic productivity, would be considered a global emergency even if they were not occurring during a period of rapid anthropogenic climate change. Diversity at all levels of biological organization, both within and among species, and across genomes and communities, is critical for the resilience of the world's ecosystems in the face of such change. However, it remains an urgent scientific challenge to understand how biodiversity underpins these ecological outputs, how patterns of biodiversity are being affected by current threats, and how and where such biodiversity contributes most directly to human economies, well-being and social justice. In addition, even with such scientific understanding, there is a pressing need for societies to incorporate biodiversity protection into their economies and governance, and to stop subsidizing the loss of humanity's future prosperity for short-term private benefit. We highlight key issues and ways forward in these areas, inspired by the research and career of Dame Georgina Mace FRS, and by our discussions during the Royal Society meeting of June 2023. This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a redefinition of maladaptation to climate change, offering a comprehensive analysis through qualitative content analysis with an inductive approach, supported by focus group discussions. The main goal was to uncover the conceptual dimensions of the unintended and negative impacts of adaptation strategies on socio-ecological systems, particularly forests and natural resources. The findings indicate that some adaptation measures, though initially aimed at mitigating climate change effects, can paradoxically exacerbate long-term vulnerability, leading to environmental degradation and a diminished adaptive capacity of these systems. In response to these outcomes, the study offers strategic recommendations for managing maladaptation risks. These include adopting integrated adaptation management practices, fostering participatory policymaking, and leveraging local knowledge to enhance both social and ecological resilience. By highlighting the critical need to recognize maladaptation's potential, this research equips policymakers and natural resource managers with insights into the unintended consequences of adaptation efforts, enabling them to craft more effective strategies for climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The people of New York have long benefited from the state's diversity of ecosystems, which range from coastal shorelines and wetlands to extensive forests and mountaintop alpine habitat, and from lakes and rivers to greenspaces in heavily populated urban areas. These ecosystems provide key services such as food, water, forest products, flood prevention, carbon storage, climate moderation, recreational opportunities, and other cultural services. This chapter examines how changes in climatic conditions across the state are affecting different types of ecosystems and the services they provide, and considers likely future impacts of projected climate change. The chapter emphasizes how climate change is increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems to existing stressors, such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species, and highlights opportunities for New Yorkers to adapt and build resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In May and June 2024, a die‐off of Mexican mantled howler monkeys (Alouatta palliata mexicana) occurred in southern Mexico. This commentary documents the event, attributing it to extreme heatwaves, drought, wildfires, and habitat impoverishment. Despite their reported resilience to habitat disturbances, mantled howler monkey mortality rate in some areas reached 31%. Key evidence points to heatstroke as the primary cause of death, exacerbated by limited hydration and reduced dietary diversity in disturbed habitats. Immediate responses included community‐led rescues (e.g., hydrating the monkeys), coordination of rescue activities by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) (e.g., managing donations), involvement of scientists (e.g., monitoring of primate populations), and assistance from government officials (e.g., providing legal support for animal management). This event underscores the urgency of developing action plans to prevent and attend future crises. Among other actions, we highlight (i) establishing primate care infrastructure with medical and rehabilitation centers; (ii) developing protocols and training programs to ensure rapid crisis response; (iii) fostering collaboration among government, NGOs, and academic institutions for effective crisis management; and (iv) developing targeted research on climate change impacts, predictive models, and long‐term health monitoring. We emphasize the critical need for coordinated conservation efforts to protect wild primates and maintain natural ecosystem resilience in the face of escalating climate challenges. Summary: In May and June 2024, over 300 howler monkeys died in southern Mexico.Key evidence points to heatstroke as the primary cause of death, exacerbated by limited hydration and reduced dietary diversity in disturbed habitats.This event highlights the critical need for coordinated conservation efforts to protect wild primates in the face of escalating climate challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heatwaves (HWs) are predicted to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change. Yet, there is limited information about how ecological resilience of aquatic communities is going to be impacted by recurrent HWs. Here, we used data from an outdoor freshwater mesocosm experiment where a semi‐natural phytoplankton community was exposed to three subsequent HWs. The data were used to test two different hypotheses regarding community and ecosystem responses to recurrent perturbations: critical slowing down and rescue. Slowing down would determine a reduction in resilience and eventually a community or ecosystem collapse, whereas rescue would increase community or ecosystem resilience and maintain stable community and ecosystem properties. The results of our experiment showed evidence for critical slowing down, but not for community or ecosystem rescue. The recovery capacity of phytoplankton biomass and dissolved oxygen gradually decreased after the first two HWs and sharply declined after the third one. The decline in these community and ecosystem properties were linked to a significant compositional turnover in the phytoplankton community. Although we did not find evidence for a transition into an alternative stable state, our results provide insights into how the overall resilience of a phytoplankton community may decline in the presence of recurrent heatwaves. Thus, we highlight the importance of monitoring the slowing down of recovery of aquatic communities experiencing repeated exposure to severe perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phosphorus is an essential component of numerous macromolecules and is vital for life. Its availability significantly influences primary production, particularly in oligotrophic environments. Marine diazotrophic cyanobacteria, which play key roles in biogeochemical cycles through nitrogen fixation (N2 fixation), have adapted to thrive in phosphate (Pi)‐poor areas. However, the molecular mechanisms that facilitate their adaptation to such conditions remain incompletely understood. Bacteria have evolved various strategies to cope with Pi limitation, including detecting Pi availability, utilising high‐affinity Pi transporters, and hydrolyzing dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) with various enzymes. This review synthesises current knowledge regarding how cyanobacteria adapt to Pi scarcity, with particular emphasis on subtropical marine free‐living diazotrophs and their ability to utilise diverse DOP molecules. Omics approaches, such as (meta)genomics and (meta)transcriptomics, reveal the resilience of marine diazotrophs in the face of Pi scarcity and highlight the need for further research into their molecular adaptive strategies. Adaptation to Pi limitation is often intertwined with the broader response of cyanobacteria to multiple limitations and stresses. This underscores the importance of understanding Pi adaptation to assess the ecological resilience of these crucial microorganisms in dynamic environments, particularly in the context of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oysters (Ostreidae) play a pivotal role in the health and productivity of marine ecosystems. Their unique ability to filter water, provide habitat, and contribute to nutrient cycling has remained underused in many parts of Europe following the destruction of vast oyster beds in the 19th and 20th centuries. The burgeoning field of oyster restoration for aquaculture has recognized the potential of these bivalves in promoting ecosystem resilience and enhancing biodiversity. Restoring oysters to previous levels requires the establishment of ecological baselines that ideally take into account the long-term changes of animal behavior as well as the surrounding environment prior to significant human intervention, an extremely challenging task. Archaeological shell middens are invaluable baseline archives and provide exclusive insights into past ecosystems. Here, we use demographic information from over 2,000 analyzed European oyster (Ostrea edulis) shells dating from ~5,660 to 2,600 cal BCE (calibrated years BCE), the largest archaeological growth rate dataset of mollusks yet. Through the analysis of size as well as ontogenetic age, we decouple anthropogenic from environmental impacts throughout Denmark. Our data show definitive influence of oyster size-age structure through human harvesting during the Mid-Holocene, with older oysters in the Mesolithic (mean: 4.9 y) than the Neolithic (mean: 3.7 y), irrespective of changes in growth rate. Furthermore, we present the metrics for long-term sustainable harvesting of oysters across environmental and socioeconomic transitions, providing demographic targets for current oyster restoration projects and valuable context in mitigating the impact of modern climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is rapidly modifying biodiversity across the Arctic, driving a shift from Arctic to more boreal ecosystem characteristics. This phenomenon, known as borealization, is mainly described for certain functional groups along sub-Arctic inflow shelves (Barents and Chukchi Seas). In this review, we evaluate the spatial extent of such alterations across the Arctic, as well as their effects on ecosystem-level processes and risks. Along the inflow shelves, borealization is driven by long-term strengthened inflow of increasingly warm waters from the south and punctuated by advection and low sea ice extreme events. A growing body of literature also points to an emerging borealization of the other Arctic shelf ecosystems, through a "spillover" effect, as local changes in environmental conditions enable movement or transport of new species from inflow shelves. These modifications are leading to changes across functional groups, although many uncertainties remain regarding under-sampled groups, such as microbes, and technical challenges of consistent, regular monitoring across regions. There is also clear consensus that borealization is affecting phenology, species composition, community traits, population structure and essential habitats, species interactions, and ecosystem resilience. Non-dynamic environmental factors, such as depth and photoperiod, are thought to limit the complete borealization of the system, and may lead to intermediate, "hybrid" ecosystems in the future. We expect current borders of Arctic and boreal ecosystems to progress further northward and ultimately reach an equilibrium state with seasonal borealization. Risks to the system are difficult to estimate, as adaptive capacities of species are poorly understood. However, ice-associated species are clearly most at risk, although some might find temporary refuge in areas with a slower rate of change. We discuss the likely character of future Arctic ecosystems and highlight the uncertainties. Those changes have implications for local communities and the potential to support Blue Growth in the Arctic. Addressing these issues is necessary to assess the full scale of Arctic climate impacts and support human mitigation and adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Societal Impact Statement: Long‐term phenology data is crucial to elucidate the effects of climate change on plants, but such efforts are lacking in the tropics. Historical records at the Singapore Botanic Gardens and ongoing phenological monitoring have allowed us to study leafing behaviour and its association with changing rainfall patterns over nine decades in equatorial Singapore. We found that the leafing behaviour of trees in our tropical site changed between 1927 and 2022. This study was made possible by assiduous past and present record‐keeping, and demonstrates the potential of botanical gardens as sentinels of environmental change, which is especially important in the tropics. Summary: Understanding tropical phenology and the potential impacts of a changing climate requires long‐term monitoring but such efforts are rare in the tropics. We took advantage of the availability of historical phenological and weather records at the Singapore Botanic Gardens and ongoing phenological monitoring to ask whether leafing behaviour has changed over an exceptionally long period of about nine decades, and whether these changes are associated with changing rainfall patterns in supposedly aseasonal Singapore.Records of leaf flush intervals from 1927 to 1939 in the Singapore Botanic Gardens were compared against leaf flush intervals calculated from present‐day phenological monitoring conducted since 2016. Daily rainfall was modelled as a predictor of present‐day leaf flushing events using moving‐window analyses.Leaf flush intervals have shortened considerably for most of the species that were monitored in the two periods. Mean daily rainfall over a window of 1 to 4 months before was negatively associated with probability of leaf flushing for five species and positively associated with four out of a total of 23 species analysed. Long‐term rainfall records from 1929 to 2022 show that February has become drier and May has become wetter since the 1960s.The results consistently support that more distinctive dry and wet periods today compared to nine decades ago have resulted in more frequent leaf flushing, which may have implications for plant‐herbivore interactions, nutrient cycling and consequently plant health and ecosystem resilience. We also demonstrate the potential and importance of supporting long‐term research in botanical gardens in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of rapid environmental change, restoration will need to emphasize innovative approaches that support the long‐term resilience of social and ecological systems. To this end, we highlight the critical, but often overlooked, role of adaptive capacity, which enables restoration practice, governance, and target ecosystems to adapt to directional environmental change. We identify three core attributes of adaptive capacity: (1) diversity, (2) connectivity, and (3) flexibility. For each attribute, we describe key strategies, including enhancing mechanisms of ecological memory, facilitating the generation of beneficial novelty, and developing governance structures that are flexible and anticipatory. These core attributes can also lead to maladaptive outcomes; careful consideration of a social‐ecological system's resilience and vulnerabilities to environmental change will likely be critical to avoid unwanted outcomes. Ultimately, implementing strategies that increase adaptive capacity can bolster restoration efficacy as it seeks to confront the global challenge of rapid environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the West Antarctic Peninsula, global warming has led to severe alterations in community composition, species distribution, and abundance over the last decades. Understanding the complex interplay between structure and stability of marine food webs is crucial for assessing ecosystem resilience, particularly in the context of ongoing environmental changes. In this study, we estimate the interaction strength within the Potter Cove (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica) food web to elucidate the roles of species in its structure and functioning. We use these estimates to calculate food web stability in response to perturbations, conducting sequential extinctions to quantify the importance of individual species based on changes in stability and food web fragmentation. We explore connections between interaction strength and key topological properties of the food web. Our findings reveal an asymmetric distribution of interaction strengths, with a prevalence of weak interactions and a few strong ones. Species exerting greater influence within the food web displayed higher degree and trophic similarity but occupied lower trophic levels and displayed lower omnivory levels (e.g., macroalgae and detritus). Extinction simulations revealed the key role of certain species, particularly amphipods and the black rockcod Notothenia coriiceps, as their removal led to significant changes in food web stability and network fragmentation. This study highlights the importance of considering species interaction strengths in assessing the stability of polar marine ecosystems. These insights have crucial implications for guiding monitoring and conservation strategies aimed at preserving the integrity of Antarctic marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global climate change alters the magnitude and rates of environmental stressors, predicting the extent of ecosystem degradation driven by these rapidly changing conditions becomes increasingly urgent. At the landscape scale, disturbances and stressors can increase spatial variability and heterogeneity — indicators that can serve as potential early warnings of declining ecosystem resilience. Increased spatial variability in salt marshes at the landscape scale has been used to quantify the propagation of ponding in salt marsh interiors, but ponding at the landscape scale follows a state change rather than predicts it. Here, we suggest a novel application of commonly collected surface elevation table (SET) data and explore millimeter-scale marsh surface microtopography as a potential early indicator of ecosystem transition. We find an increase in spatial variability using multiple metrics of microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marsh communities across the North American Atlantic seaboard. Increasing microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marshes mirrored increasing trends in variance when a tipping point is approached in other alternative stable state systems — indicating that early warning signals of marsh drowning and ecosystem transition are observable at small-spatial scales prior to runaway ecosystem degradation. Congruence between traditional and novel metrics of marsh vulnerability suggests that microtopographic metrics can be used to identify hidden vulnerability before widespread marsh degradation. This novel analysis can be easily applied to existing SET records expanding the traditional focus on vertical change to additionally encapsulate lateral processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recognizing the impact of climate change on the temporal and spatial variations in forests is crucial for sustaining them in the face of climate change. Here, we aimed to: (1) analyses the greening and browning trends in HFs based on time-series VIs, focusing on foliage trends observable through remote sensing; (2) explore the temporal and spatial trends of climatic factors; and (3) identify the relationship between the greening and browning of the forests and climate change. In this regard, we generated an 18-year (2003–2020) time series with an 8-day temporal resolution, encompassing MODIS vegetation indices (EVI and NDVI) and four climatic and hydrological factors: day and night temperature (LSTd, LSTn), precipitation (PRE), and actual evapotranspiration (ET). Subsequently, we used spatial statistical methods for analysis. EVI and NDVI trend analyses over the study period revealed greening in 77.02% and 92.32% of the study area, respectively. The statistical test confirmed significance (p < 0.05) for this greening in around 41.59% (EVI trend) and 75.11% (NDVI trend). Regarding the climatic and hydrological factors, PRE exhibited a declining trend, whereas LSTd, LSTn, and ET showed an increasing trend. Conclusively, the results reveal a positive correlation, ranging between 0.7 and 0.9, between temperature (LSTd and LSTn) and vegetation indices, indicating a close association between the greening process in HFs and rising temperatures (LSTd and LSTn). These results contribute to the understanding of the ecological resilience of HFs, aiding in the development of strategies to enhance ecosystems' resilience in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of climate change on hydrological dynamics in the Ruzizi River Basin (RRB) by leveraging a combination of observational historical data and downscaled climate model outputs. The primary objective is to evaluate changes in precipitation, temperature, and water balance components under different climate scenarios. We employed a multi-modal ensemble (MME) approach to enhance the accuracy of climate projections, integrating historical climate data spanning from 1950 to 2014 with downscaled projections for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, covering future periods from 2040 to 2100. Our methodology involved calibrating and validating the SWAT model against observed hydrological data to ensure reliable simulations of future climate scenarios. The model's performance was assessed using metrics such as R2, NSE, KGE, and PBIAS, which closely aligned with recommended standards. Results reveal a significant decline in mean annual precipitation, with reductions of up to 37.86% by mid-century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This decline is projected to lead to substantial reductions in surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and water yield, alongside a marked decrease in mean monthly stream flow, critically impacting agricultural, domestic, and ecological water needs. The study underscores the necessity of adaptive water resource management strategies to address these anticipated changes. Key recommendations include implementing a dynamic reservoir operation system, enhancing forecasting tools, and incorporating green infrastructure to maintain water quality, support ecosystem resilience, and ensure sustainable water use in the RRB. This research emphasizes the need for localized strategies to address climate-driven hydrological changes and protect future water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extant research has documented how coal industries can have devastating impacts on industrial communities. While much of the sociological research on climate change has focused on issues of environmental sustainability and resilience, comparatively less research has centered around the social and emotional consequences of climate change in the context of industrial areas. To attend to this gap in the literature, we investigate how coal communities grieve lost landscapes and how that grief informs responses to future environmental threats. To do this, we build on and extend recent work that has argued for the sociological relevance of the concept of solastalgia in analyzing how communities cope with the impacts of natural and technological disasters at the local level. The term solastalgia describes the distress communities experience as they lose landscapes they once cherished in the wake of events such as expanding extractive activities. Specifically, we analyzed a coal mining region in the Czech Republic to examine how communities experience solastalgia in regions that have been chronically exploited for industrial energy extraction over time. Our findings revealed how solastalgia within industrial and coal communities can translate across time and generations. We use the term intergenerational solastalgia to capture this community-level phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic processes that ensure the recovery and resilience of marine populations are critical as climate change sends an increasing proportion on a trajectory of decline. Yet for some populations, recovery potential remains high. We conducted annual monitoring over 9 years (2012–2020) to assess the recovery of coral populations belonging to the genus Pocillopora. These populations experienced a catastrophic collapse following a severe typhoon in 2009. From the start of the monitoring period, high initial recruitment led to the establishment of a juvenile population that rapidly transitioned to sexually mature adults, which dominated the population within 6 years after the disturbance. As a result, coral cover increased from 1.1% to 20.2% during this time. To identify key demographic drivers of recovery and population growth rates (λ), we applied kernel‐resampled integral projection models (IPMs), constructing eight successive models to examine annual change. IPMs were able to capture reproductive traits as key demographic drivers over the initial 3 years, while individual growth was a continuous key demographic driver throughout the entire monitoring period. IPMs further detected a pulse of reproductive output subsequent to two further Category 5 typhoon events during the monitoring period, exemplifying key mechanisms of resilience for coral populations impacted by disturbance. Despite rapid recovery, (i.e., increased coral cover, individual colony growth, low mortality), IPMs estimated predominantly negative values of λ, indicating a declining population. Indeed, while λ translates to a change in the number of individuals, the recovery of coral populations can also be driven by an increase in the size of surviving colonies. Our results illustrate that accumulating long‐term data on historical dynamics and applying IPMs to extract demographic drivers are crucial for future predictions that are based on comprehensive and robust understandings of ecological change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change-related stressors are becoming more noticeable in the ocean, particularly in coastal marine ecosystems. Yet limited information still exists on the physiological state and ecological resilience of marine fish species, especially during their early life stages (i.e., larvae and juveniles). The present study investigated the effects of chronic exposure to seawater warming (OW; ΔT = +4 °C) and acidification (OA; ΔpH = −0.3 pH units, equivalent to pCO2~1000 µatm), acting alone or combined (OWA), on juvenile zebra seabream (Diplodus cervinus) physiological resilience, considering distinct levels of biological organization (i.e., biochemical, cell, organ and individual levels). After 60 days of exposure, both stressors, in isolation or combination, significantly decreased specific growth rate (−11% in OW, −42% in OA and −49% in OWA) and leukocyte counts (from −29% in OA and OWA up to −37% in OW) in relation to the control treatment. In addition, a decreased Fulton's condition index (K) was observed under warming and acidification in combination (−35% in OWA). At the cell level, OW, OA and OWA triggered different biomarker responses in D. cervinus (i.e., up-regulation, down-regulation, or absence of significant effect). In general, the results are suggestive of an antagonistic effect when warming and acidification are combined. OWA yielded the highest integrated biomarker response (IBR) index value in the whole organism, muscle, brain and gills of D. cervinus juveniles, therefore suggesting that the effects of these stressors are more severe when they act together. The distinct patterns observed in each stress scenario highlight the importance of carrying out further studies adjusted to the specificities of different regions, i.e., accounting not only for the type and degree of severity of environmental stressors already felt and/or projected for that specific area, but also the physiological plasticity of species that inhabit a particular ecosystem. The gathered knowledge will allow one to determine the vulnerability of particular marine species and geographic areas and, most importantly, to draw up effective and tailor-made conservation strategies to overcome climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is interacting with water resource pressures to alter the frequency, severity and spatial extent of drought, which can thus no longer be considered a purely natural hazard. Although particularly severe ecological impacts of drought have occurred in drylands, its effects on temperate ecosystems, including rivers, are also considerable. Extensive research spanning a diverse range of UK rivers offers an opportunity to place the effects of past drought in the context of intensifying climate change and to examine the likely effects of future drought in a typically cool, wet country. Here, drought manifests instream as deficits in surface water, modified flow velocities, and—increasingly—partial or complete drying of previously perennial and naturally non‐perennial reaches. As a result, drought causes declines in the taxonomic and functional biodiversity of freshwater communities including microorganisms, algae, plants, invertebrates and fish, altering ecological processes and associated benefits to people. Although freshwater communities have typically recovered quickly after previous UK droughts, an increase in drought extremity may compromise recovery following future events. The risk of droughts that push ecosystems beyond thresholds to persistent, species‐poor, functionally simplified states is increasing. Research and monitoring are needed to enable timely identification of rivers approaching such thresholds and thus to inform interventions that pull these ecosystems back from the brink. Management actions that support natural flow regimes and promote natural processes that diversify instream habitats, including drought refuges, are also crucial to support biodiversity within functional river ecosystems as they adapt to a changing world. This article is categorized under:Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater EcosystemsWater and Life > Stresses and Pressures on EcosystemsWater and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses significant challenges to ecosystems globally, demanding innovative methods for environmental conservation and restoration. Restoration initiatives require significant amounts of appropriate vegetation that is both adaptive and tolerant to the specific environmental factors. This study introduces an adaptive-vegetation model designed to support ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change. Traditional restoration methods often neglect dynamic environmental conditions and ecosystem interactions, but the model employs real-time data and predictive analytics to adapt strategies to evolving climate variables. The model takes a comprehensive approach, incorporating climate projections, soil health metrics, species adaptability, and hydrological patterns to inform restoration practices. By using a mix of adaptable native species, the model promotes biodiversity. In conclusion, according to the findings of our review, paludiculture and agroforestry could be implemented as models for improving climate resilience, particularly in tropical degraded peat swamp forests. These two models could improve the environment, the economy, and social functions. Finally, improving all three of these factors improves ecological stability. This adaptive-vegetation model represents a significant shift from static, uniform restoration approaches to dynamic, data-driven strategies tailored to specific environments. The future research directions underscore the need for ongoing innovation in conservation practices to safeguard ecosystems amid unprecedented environmental changes. Future efforts will focus on enhancing the model with advanced machine learning techniques and expanding its application to additional ecological contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate crisis has exacerbated many ecological and cultural problems including wildfire and drought vulnerability, biodiversity declines, and social justice and equity. While there are many concepts of social and ecological resilience, the exemplar practices of Indigenous stewardship are recognized in having sustained Indigenous peoples and their countries for millennia and past climate change events. California has been at the crossroads of many of these issues, and the historic and current contributions of Indigenous peoples to addressing these provide an excellent study of ecocultural stewardship and leadership by Indigenous peoples to achieve climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial ecosystems are experiencing notable changes due to global change, making it crucial to determine their future responses under different climate scenarios. In previous theories, it has been proposed that resilience, which reflects the ability of ecosystems to withstand disturbances such as drought and wildfires, can serve as an indicator of the ecosystem structure and function. In this study, we applied ecosystem resilience as a metric to assess the state of terrestrial ecosystems. Our analysis revealed a positive trend in vegetation growth across different climate scenarios. Additionally, SSP5-8.5 having the least masked areas exhibits the smallest uncertainties among the considered scenarios. We further examined the theoretical recovery rates based on variance and lag-1 auto-correlation (AC1) to quantify resilience, considering three future periods (near-term, mid-term, and long-term). The theoretical recovery rates decrease from the near-term to the long-term, while larger uncertainties are observed in the long-term compared to the near-term. Notably, equatorial regions experience a significant degradation in resilience, despite the anticipated increase in vegetation growth. Our study highlights the complex dynamics between vegetation growth and ecosystem resilience, disentangling the resilience change of terrestrial ecosystems in the face of global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) can thrive under environmental conditions that are stressful for vascular plants such as high temperatures and/or extremely low moisture availability. In these settings, and in the absence of disturbance, cover of biocrusts commonly exceeds cover of vascular plants. Arid landscapes are also typically slow to recover from disturbance and prone to altered vegetation and invasion by exotic species. In the sagebrush ecosystems, cover of annual, exotic, invasive grasses are lower where cover of biocrusts and vascular plants are greater, suggesting that biocrusts play a role in helping arid sites avoid conversion to dominance by invasive grasses. The conceptual framework for assessing ecological resistance and resilience (R&R) is used across the region to estimate the risk of invasion by annual grasses and the likelihood of recovery of native plants following disturbance. However, this framework does not currently account for biocrusts. We used data collected by the Bureau of Land Management Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring program to relate biocrusts, specifically the presence of lichens and mosses, to the R&R framework. Lichens frequently occur on warm, dry sites, classified as lower R&R. Mosses frequently occur on sites classified as moderate or moderately low R&R. Without management practices that favor biocrusts in low‐moderate R&R, these areas may be more vulnerable to transitioning from being dominated by shrubs to annual grasses. Under climate change scenarios, the area occupied by lower R&R sites is likely to increase, suggesting that the role of biocrusts in maintaining site resistance to invasion may also increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will disrupt biological processes at every scale. Ecosystem functions and services vital to ecological resilience are set to shift, with consequences for how we manage land, natural resources, and food systems. Increasing temperatures cause morphological shifts, with concomitant implications for biomechanical performance metrics crucial to trophic interactions. Biomechanical performance, such as maximum bite force or running speed, determines the breadth of resources accessible to consumers, the outcome of interspecific interactions, and thus the structure of ecological networks. Climate change-induced impacts to ecosystem services and resilience are therefore on the horizon, mediated by disruptions of biomechanical performance and, consequently, trophic interactions across whole ecosystems. Here, we argue that there is an urgent need to investigate the complex interactions between climate change, biomechanical traits, and foraging ecology to help predict changes to ecological networks and ecosystem functioning. We discuss how these seemingly disparate disciplines can be connected through network science. Using an ant-plant network as an example, we illustrate how different data types could be integrated to investigate the interaction between warming, bite force, and trophic interactions, and discuss what such an integration will achieve. It is our hope that this integrative framework will help to identify a viable means to elucidate previously intractable impacts of climate change, with effective predictive potential to guide management and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change is a multifaceted, unprecedented crisis hitting the life support system of our planet. Among global changes, climate change is regarded as one of the most grave threats to biodiversity because of its direct impacts on species and ecosystems integrity and because of its indirect consequences through synergistic effects with other global change factors such as biological invasions. The challenges presented to either reduce or mitigate this biodiversity crisis derived from climate change require novel synthesis and innovation in ecological and evolutionary theory. Positive species interactions within and between trophic levels can play a key role in the resilience of ecological communities. Depending on the tolerance of nurse species to different aspects of climate change, communities can be more or less resilient to those changes. This knowledge has important implications for both natural communities and agroecosystems. Further, our fundamental understanding of the role of positive interactions can also enable both effective conservation and restoration levers in space and time. This special issue includes studies addressing the role of facilitative interactions on the response of ecological systems to climate change. Key concepts examined included stress, gradients, nurse species, spatial scale, translocation, phylogenetics alongside physiochemicals, and variation in the capacity of species to buffer changes. Alpine, tundra, drylands and temperate forests were directly tested, but salient principles were relevant to all ecosystems including a contribution on soil biota and also a call to more open data and collaborative science. Together, this corpus of work highlighted the significance of facilitative interactions in mitigating many of the effects of climate change on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The escalation of climate change has challenged urban sustainable development, especially in the top globally vulnerable countries. This paper investigates the role of social capital in shaping the resilience of residents in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's first mega urban, based on survey data from 300 households, using a stratified sampling strategy to reflect the urban and suburban population structure of the city-dwellers with the application of PLS-SEM. The study highlights the significant role of bridging social capital, drawing on established research and theories, which emphasizes the importance of diverse social networks in enhancing problem-solving, optimism, material resources, and social resources. Additionally, the study uncovers the impact of bonding social capital, particularly in terms of enhancing material and social resources, underscoring the cultural inclination towards close-knit networks within Vietnamese society. Structural barriers associated with vertical networks are identified, implying the need to promote the role of linking social capital in enhancing resilience. The study confirms the cruciality of addressing socio-economic factors and promoting access to formal support systems for bolstering overall resilience among urban residents in Ho Chi Minh City and beyond. The results enrich the current literature when operationalizing and exploring the nexus of social capital and resilience multi-dimensionally in a mega urban setting of an emerging country for new pathways to achieve sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To reduce the effects of climate change, the current fossil-based energy system must transition to a low-carbon system based largely on renewables. In both academic literature and non-academic discourse concerning the energy transition, resilience is frequently mentioned as an additional objective or requirement. Despite its frequent use, resilience is a very malleable term with different meanings in different contexts. Main text: This paper seeks to identify how resilience is understood in the field of the energy system and whether there are similar aspects in the different ways the term is understood. To this end, we review more than 130 papers for definitions of energy system resilience. In addition, we use different aspects to categorize and examine these. The results paint a diverse picture in terms of the definition and understanding of resilience in the energy system. However, a few definition archetypes can be identified. The first uses a straightforward approach, in which the energy system has one clearly defined equilibrium state. Here, resilience is defined in relation to the response of the energy system to a disturbance and its ability to quickly return to its equilibrium. The second type of resilience allows for different equilibriums, to which a resilient energy system can move after a disruption. Another type of resilience focuses more on the process and the actions of the system in response to disruption. Here, resilience is defined as the ability of the system to adapt and change. In the papers reviewed, we find that the operational definition of resilience often encompasses aspects of different archetypes. This diversity shows that resilience is a versatile concept with different elements. Conclusions: With this paper, we aim to provide insight into how the understanding of resilience for the energy system differs depending on which aspect of the energy system is studied, and which elements might be necessary for different understandings of resilience. We conclude by providing information and recommendations on the potential usage of the term energy system resilience based on our lessons learned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is heavily altering plant distributions, posing significant challenges to conventional agricultural practices and ecological balance. Meanwhile, mixed species planting emerges as a potent strategy to enhance agricultural resilience, counteract climate change, preserve ecological balance, and provide a solution to economic instability. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable area of Citrus reticulata under five climate scenarios and to explore affecting environmental factors. Litchi chinensis, Punica granatum, and Lycium chinense were selected as mixed species to analyze the spatial distribution and centroid migration trend of potentially suitable areas. The research results show the following: (1) The primary environmental factors impacting C. reticulata distribution are annual precipitation (1000–4000 mm), precipitation of driest quarter over 100 mm, and mean temperature of coldest quarter (12–28 °C). Crucially, the mixed species exhibited similar environmental sensitivities, indicating mutual mixing suitability. (2) Currently, the C. reticulata suitable area is of 240.21 × 104 km2, primarily in South, East, Central, and Southwest China, with potential for expansion to 265.41 × 104 km2 under the 2090s SSP1-2.6 scenario. (3) The geometric center of the moderately-to-highly suitable areas for C. reticulata is located in Hunan Province. Future scenarios show the C. reticulata's centroid migrating northwest, with distances of less than 110 km. Mixed planting trends toward higher latitudes, fluctuating from 6 km to 210 km. (4) Mixed planting area planning: C. reticulata and L. chinensis are suitable for mixed planting in South China. C. reticulata and P. granatum, C. reticulata and L. chinense are suitable for mixed planting in most areas of Central, East, Southwest, and South China. This research presents a new perspective on using mixed design principles for ecological adaptation and the sustainable mixed planting of C. reticulata, in response to China's changing climate. This approach is expected to help the economic fruit tree industry enhance ecological resilience and economic stability in the face of future climate change challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Trees that survive disturbances are important biological legacies that facilitate forests' recovery and enhance their structural and species diversity, substantially contributing to the resilience of these ecosystems. The dynamic pattern of legacy syndromes sets the understudied aspects of survivors of wind disturbance into focus. Several factors at tree, stand, and landscape scales alter the susceptibility of the remnant trees, and affect their potential to recover and survive subsequent disturbances. The characteristics of the survivors interact with direct stress and mortality drivers such as changed environmental conditions and pressure by pests and pathogens. Climate change further enhances the post-storm vulnerability of the remaining stand. This literature review analyzes the impact of disturbance parameters (e.g., severity, seasonal timing) and characteristics of the affected forest (e.g., tree species composition, successional stage of a forest stand) on the conditions of survivors through post-windthrow stand development. We attempted to reveal the main agents and processes driving the fate of remnant trees and linked delayed mortality patterns to the main standscale wind disturbance regimes in Eurasian and North American boreal and temperate forests: (1) stand-replacing, (2) partially stand-replacing, and (3) finescale gap disturbance. We found that after stand-replacing wind disturbance, the spatial location of the remaining trees largely determines their onward fate, whereas these survivors are generally more susceptible to subsequent mortality compared to trees that survived less severe events. After partially stand-replacing wind disturbance, the structure of the remnant stand as well as characteristics of the individual remnant trees (e.g., species, age, size) largely determine their survival probability. Following a fine-scale gap disturbance, the trees at the gap edge are more likely to die, compared to the trees situated in the stand interior, but the mortality-causing processes usually operate on a longer time scale. Our findings contribute to the current knowledge on postwindthrow stand development and offer insights into temporal stability of these increasingly important biological legacies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrient limitations play a key regulatory role in plant growth, thereby affecting ecosystem productivity and carbon uptake. Experimental observations identifying the most limiting nutrients are lacking, particularly in Afrotropical forests. We conducted an ecosystem-scale, full factorial nitrogen (N)-phosphorus (P)-potassium (K) addition experiment consisting 32 40 × 40 m plots (eight treatments × four replicates) in Uganda to investigate which (if any) nutrient limits fine root growth. After two years of observations, added N rapidly decreased fine root biomass by up to 36% in the first and second years of the experiment. Added K decreased fine root biomass by 27% and fine root production by 30% in the second year. These rapid reductions in fine root growth highlight a scaled-back carbon investment in the costly maintenance of large fine root network as N and K limitations become alleviated. No fine root growth response to P addition was observed. Fine root turnover rate was not significantly affected by nutrient additions but tended to be higher in N added than non-N added treatments. These results suggest that N and K availability may restrict the ecosystem's capacity for CO2 assimilation, with implications for ecosystem productivity and resilience to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This Special Issue, based on an international conference commemorating 40 years of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (LOSC), Copenhagen, March 2023, examines emerging issues of resilience of the Convention. More than 40 years have passed since the adoption of the LOSC. Currently, the LOSC faces many challenges that were unforeseen at the time of its adoption in 1982. An essential question thus arises as to whether and how it is possible to address these unforeseen issues under the LOSC. Here, resilience of the LOSC must be envisaged. The six articles in this Special Issue provide an insight into the resilience of the LOSC, examining some cutting-edge matters the LOSC faces today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change-related disasters have dramatically escalated throughout the world. Among a range of unexpected calamities, hydrometeorological disasters have come to the fore. This is because, torrential rains, mass flooding events, cyclones, storms, landslides (wet), droughts, heat waves and cold waves are very predominant. In addition to that, global warming, wild/forest fires, and melting down of glacier/ice covers of polar and nearby regions are very serious. This is because community resilience and ecological resilience are dramatically eroding and challenging. The existing situation is very serious due to the inherent nexus between community resilience and ecological resilience. In this context, the study aims to conduct a systematic literature review on the extant literature of resilience and to identify the cardinal variables that are appropriate to measure community resilience to the ongoing global climate change scenarios. Methodologically, the study used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) model to filter the appropriate literature (followed by the identifying, screening, and including process). The study considered the manuscripts and reports published in English. Accordingly, inappropriate literature works were excluded. Finally, the study considered 33 literature works on resilience out of 117. According to the analysis and results revealed, six cardinal resiliency aspects were identified, namely, Socioeconomic resilience, Demographic resilience, Health resilience, Sociopolitical resilience, Social capital resilience, and Ecological resilience. These key resiliency aspects will extremely be important for securing the lives and livelihoods of the human population from the ongoing climate change impasses/crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Republic of Learning (RoL) was an experimental program bringing people together to learn about resilience in times of planetary health crisis, environmental change, and growing uncertainty. Eleven sessions took place between 2019 and 2022, planting seeds for an informal community to emerge with a unique approach to shared learning. RoL combined artistic craft-making with cooperative thinking—slowing down debate to sideline confrontations and argument in favor of more gentle forms of colearning and collaboration. This article explores the methods, outcomes, and opportunities that this process opens up for new forms of action and engagement with issues of climate change, resilience, and reciprocity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between tropical cyclones and wildfires occur widely and can tip closed forests into open-canopy structures that initiate a 'grass–fire' cycle. We examined cyclone–fire interactions in a monodominant tropical montane pine forest in the Dominican Republic using remotely-sensed imagery to quantify damage from fires between 1986 and 2004, a category 1 cyclone in 1998, and an extensive wildfire in 2005. We also measured forest structure and composition 14.7 years after the 2005 fire. The area inside the 2005 burn scars (fire perimeters) totaled 25,206 ha, of which 81% burned and 14% was cyclone damaged. Cyclone damage made the fire markedly more extensive and severe—high-severity fires were > 3 times more frequent with high-severity cyclone damage than no cyclone damage—but these markedly synergistic effects were restricted to areas that had not burned for at least 19 years before the 2005 fire. Though earlier fires from 1986 to 2004 were small and low-severity, they were sufficient, when present, to prevent high-severity fire in 2005 irrespective of cyclone severity. In areas with strong cyclone–fire interactions, there was a complete loss of pine canopies, yet these stands had abundant pine canopy recruitment by 2019 and showed no evidence of compositional shifts toward open-canopy structures with pyrogenic herbaceous understories, illustrating the resilience of this ecosystem to a range of cyclone–fire synergies. However, the future resilience of tropical montane pine forests to cyclone–fire synergies is uncertain as climate change increases the intensity of cyclones and frequency of drought-triggered fires in these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Seagrass, a vital primary producer habitat, is crucial for maintaining high biodiversity and offers numerous ecosystem services globally. The increasing severity and frequency of marine heatwaves, exacerbated by climate change, pose significant risks to seagrass meadows. Aims: This study acknowledges the uncertainty and variability of marine heatwave scenarios and aims to aid managers and policymakers in understanding simulated responses of seagrass to different durations, frequencies and recurrence gaps of marine heatwaves. Materials and Methods: Using expert knowledge and observed data, we refined a global Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model for a specific case study on Halophila ovalis in Leschenault Estuary, Australia. The model evaluates the potential impact of marine heatwaves on seagrass resilience, examining stress resistance, recovery and extinction risk. Results: Simulations of different marine heatwave scenarios reveal significant impacts on seagrass ecosystems. Scenarios ranged from 30‐ to 90‐day heatwaves, with longer durations causing more significant biomass decline, reduced resistance, higher extinction risk and prolonged recovery. For instance, recovery time may increase from 18 to 26 months with four 60‐day and from 24 to 47 months with four 90‐day marine heatwave events. Increasing the frequency of marine heatwaves from one to four annual events, with no gaps between occurrences, could raise extinction risk from 11% to 55% for 60‐day events and from 17% to 83% for 90‐day events. However, introducing gaps between heatwaves enhanced resilience, with spaced events showing lower extinction risks and quicker recovery than consecutive yearly events. Discussion: The study demonstrates the DBN model's utility in simulating the impact of marine heatwaves on seagrass, providing tools for risk‐informed assessment of management and restoration efforts. While these simulations align with existing research on temperature impacts on seagrass, they are not empirical. Conclusion: Further research is necessary to expand our understanding of climate change effects on seagrass ecosystems, guide policy and develop strategies to strengthen marine ecosystem resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological resilience is the capability of an ecosystem to maintain the same structure and function and avoid crossing catastrophic tipping points (i.e. undergoing irreversible regime shifts). While fundamental for management, concrete ways to estimate and interpret resilience in real ecosystems are still lacking. Here, we develop an empirical approach to estimate resilience based on the stochastic cusp model derived from catastrophe theory. The cusp model models tipping points derived from a cusp bifurcation. We extend cusp in order to identify the presence of stable and unstable states in complex natural systems. Our Cusp Resilience Assessment (CUSPRA) has three characteristics: (i) it provides estimates on how likely a system is to cross a tipping point (in the form of a cusp bifurcation) characterized by hysteresis, (ii) it assesses resilience in relation to multiple external drivers and (iii) it produces straightforward results for ecosystem-based management. We validate our approach using simulated data and demonstrate its application using empirical time series of an Atlantic cod population and marine ecosystems in the North Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We show that Cusp Resilience Assessment is a powerful method to empirically estimate resilience in support of a sustainable management of our constantly adapting ecosystems under global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem restoration can increase the health and resilience of nature and humanity. As a result, the international community is championing habitat restoration as a primary solution to address the dual climate and biodiversity crises. Yet most ecosystem restoration efforts to date have underperformed, failed, or been burdened by high costs that prevent upscaling. To become a primary, scalable conservation strategy, restoration efficiency and success must increase dramatically. Here, we outline how integrating ten foundational ecological theories that have not previously received much attention — from hierarchical facilitation to macroecology — into ecosystem restoration planning and management can markedly enhance restoration success. We propose a simple, systematic approach to determining which theories best align with restoration goals and are most likely to bolster their success. Armed with a century of advances in ecological theory, restoration practitioners will be better positioned to more cost-efficiently and effectively rebuild the world's ecosystems and support the resilience of our natural resources. Silliman and colleagues outline how restoration practitioners can leverage insight from ecological theories to increase the scale, success, and resilience of habitat restorations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current ecological communities are in a constant state of flux from climate change and from species introductions. Recent discussion has focused on the positive roles introduced species can play in ecological communities and on the importance of conserving resilient ecosystems, but not how these two ideas intersect. There has been insufficient work to define the attributes needed to support ecosystem resilience to climate change in modern communities. Here, I argue that non‐invasive, introduced plant species could play an important role in supporting the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Using examples from multiple taxonomic groups and ecosystems, I discuss how introduced plants can contribute to ecosystem resilience via their roles in plant and insect communities, as well as their associated ecosystem functions. I highlight the current and potential contributions of introduced plants and where there are critical knowledge gaps. Determining when and how introduced plants are contributing to the resilience of ecosystems to climate change will contribute to effective conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declines in biodiversity generated by anthropogenic stressors at both species and population levels can alter emergent processes instrumental to ecosystem function and resilience. As such, understanding the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function and its response to climate perturbation is increasingly important, especially in tropical systems where responses to changes in biodiversity are less predictable and more challenging to assess experimentally. Using large-scale transplant experiments conducted at five neotropical sites, we documented the impacts of changes in intraspecific and interspecific plant richness in the genus Piper on insect herbivory, insect richness, and ecosystem resilience to perturbations in water availability. We found that reductions of both intraspecific and interspecific Piper diversity had measurable and site-specific effects on herbivory, herbivorous insect richness, and plant mortality. The responses of these ecosystem-relevant processes to reduced intraspecific Piper richness were often similar in magnitude to the effects of reduced interspecific richness. Increased water availability reduced herbivory by 4.2% overall, and the response of herbivorous insect richness and herbivory to water availability were altered by both intra- and interspecific richness in a site-dependent manner. Our results underscore the role of intraspecific and interspecific richness as foundations of ecosystem function and the importance of community and location-specific contingencies in controlling function in complex tropical systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]