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The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked 1-3 , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently 4,5 . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice) 4 . The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

The demand for more food is increasing fertilizer and land use, and the demand for more energy is increasing fossil fuel combustion, leading to enhanced losses of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to the environment. Many thresholds for human and ecosystem health have been exceeded owing to Nr pollution, including those for drinking water (nitrates), air quality (smog, particulate matter, ground-level ozone), freshwater eutrophication, biodiversity loss, stratospheric ozone depletion, climate change and coastal ecosystems (dead zones). Each of these environmental effects can be magnified by the 'nitrogen cascade': a single atom of Nr can trigger a cascade of negative environmental impacts in sequence. Here, we provide an overview of the impact of Nr on the environment and human health, including an assessment of the magnitude of different environmental problems, and the relative importance of Nr as a contributor to each problem. In some cases, Nr loss to the environment is the key driver of effects (e.g. terrestrial and coastal eutrophication, nitrous oxide emissions), whereas in some other situations nitrogen represents a key contributor exacerbating a wider problem (e.g. freshwater pollution, biodiversity loss). In this way, the central role of nitrogen can remain hidden, even though it actually underpins many trans-boundary pollution problems.

Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land-atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission-deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28-67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45-85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89-179) Tg by 2100.

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We modelled the effects of past and expected future changes in climate (temperature, precipitation), CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition (N) and ozone (O 3 ) exposure (phytotoxic ozone dose, POD) on carbon (C) sequestration by European forest ecosystems for the period 1900–2050. Tree C sequestration was assessed by using empirical response functions, while soil C sequestration was simulated with the process-based model VSD, combined with the RothC model. We evaluated two empirical growth responses to N deposition (linear and non-linear) and two O 3 exposure relationships (linear function with total biomass or net annual increment). We further investigated an ‘interactive model’ with interactions between drivers and a ‘multiplicative model’, in which the combined effect is the product of individual drivers. A single deposition and climate scenario was used for the period 1900–2050. Contrary to expectations, growth observations at European level for the period 1950–2010 compared better with predictions by the multiplicative model than with the interactive model. This coincides with the fact that carbon responses in kg C ha − 1 yr − 1 per unit change in drivers, i.e. per °C, ppm CO 2 , kg N ha − 1 yr − 1 and mmol m − 2 yr − 1 POD, are more in line with literature data when using the multiplicative model. Compared to 1900, the estimated European average total C sequestration in both forests and forest soils between 1950 and 2000 increased by 21% in the interactive model and by 41% in the multiplicative model, but observed changes were even higher. This growth increase is expected to decline between 2000 and 2050. The simulated changes between 1950 and 2000 were mainly due to the increase in both N deposition and CO 2 , while the predicted increases between 2000 and 2050 were mainly caused by the increase in CO 2 and temperature, and to lesser extent a decrease in POD, counteracted by reduced N deposition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Of a wide variety of international forest research and monitoring networks, several networks are dedicated to the effects of climate change on forests, while the effects of anthropogenic pollutants on forests have been a major area for both monitoring and research for decades. The large amounts of data already obtained within existing monitoring programmes and large-scale international projects can be used to increase understanding of the state and potential of forest mitigation and adaptation to climate change in a polluted environment, and a major challenge now is to evaluate and integrate the presently available databases. We present a meta-database with the main goal to highlight available data and integrate the information about research and monitoring of selected European Research and Monitoring Networks (ERMNs). Depending on the selected ERMNs, the list of variables and the measurement units differ widely in the databases. As a result, activities related to the identification, evaluation and integration of the presently available databases are important for the scientific community. Furthermore, and equally important, the recognition of current knowledge gaps and future needed research is made easier. This analysis suggests that: ground-level ozone is under-investigated, although it is one of the pollutants of greatest concern to forests; in addition to CO2, long-term other greenhouse gasses (GHG) flux measurements should be carried out; there is still a need of improving links between monitoring of atmospheric changes and impacts on forests; research-oriented manipulative experiments in the forests are missing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In the climate change discussion, the possibility of carbon sequestration of forests plays an important role. Therefore, research on the effects of environmental changes on net primary productivity is interesting. In this study we investigated the influence of changing temperature, precipitation and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds on forest growth. The database consisted of 654 plots of the European intensive monitoring program (Level II plots) with 5-year growth data for the period 1994–1999. Among these 654 plots only 382 plots in 18 European countries met the requirements necessary to be used in our analysis. Our analysis was done for common beech (Fagus sylvatica), oak (Quercus petraea and Q. robur), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). We developed an individual tree growth model with measured basal area increment of each individual tree as responding growth factor and tree size (diameter at breast height), tree competition (basal area of larger trees and stand density index), site factors (soil C/N ratio, temperature), and environmental factors (temperature change compared to long-term average, nitrogen and sulphur deposition) as influencing parameters. Using a mixed model approach, all models for the tree species show a high goodness of fit with Pseudo-R 2 between 0.33 and 0.44. Diameter at breast height and basal area of larger trees were highly influential variables in all models. Increasing temperature shows a positive effect on growth for all species except Norway spruce. Nitrogen deposition shows a positive impact on growth for all four species. This influence was significant with p <0.05 for all species except common beech. For beech the effect was nearly significant (p =0.077). An increase of 1kgNha−1 yr−1 corresponds to an increase in basal area increment between 1.20% and 1.49% depending on species. Considering an average total carbon uptake for European forests near 1730kg per hectare and year, this implies an estimated sequestration of approximately 21–26kg carbon per kg nitrogen deposition. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time requirements to minimize yield losses or realize yield gains. The main objective of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of climate change impacts on European crop yields, land use, production and environmental variables to adaptations in crops sowing dates and varieties' thermal time requirements. A crop, economic and environmental model were coupled in an integrated assessment modelling approach for six important crops, for 27 countries of the European Union (EU27) to assess results of three SRES climate change scenarios to 2050. Crop yields under climate change were simulated considering three different management cases; (i) no change in crop management from baseline conditions (NoAd), (ii) adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements to give highest yields to 2050 (Opt) and (iii) a more conservative adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements (Act). Averaged across EU27, relative changes in water-limited crop yields due to climate change and increased CO 2 varied between − 6 and + 21% considering NoAd management, whereas impacts with Opt management varied between + 12 and + 53%, and those under Act management between − 2 and + 27%. However, relative yield increases under climate change increased to + 17 and + 51% when technology progress was also considered. Importantly, the sensitivity to crop management assumptions of land use, production and environmental impacts were less pronounced than for crop yields due to the influence of corresponding market, farm resource and land allocation adjustments along the model chain acting via economic optimization of yields. We conclude that assumptions about crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements affect impact variables but to a different extent and generally decreasing for variables affected by economic drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate, technology, policy and prices affect agricultural and rural development. To evaluate whether this development is sustainable, impacts of these multiple drivers need to be assessed for multiple indicators. In a case study area in the Netherlands, a bio-economic farm model, an agent-based land-use change model, and a regional emission model have been used to simulate rural development under two plausible global change scenarios at both farm and landscape level. Results show that in this area, climate change will have mainly negative economic impacts (dairy gross margin, arable gross margin, economic efficiency, milk production) in the warmer and drier W + scenario, while impacts are slightly positive in the G scenario with moderate climate change. Dairy farmers are worse off than arable farmers in both scenarios. Conversely, when the W + scenario is embedded in the socio-economic Global Economy (GE) scenario, changes in technology, prices, and policy are projected to have a positive economic impact, more than offsetting the negative climate impacts. Important is, however, that environmental impacts (global warming, terrestrial and aquatic eutrophication) are largely negative and social impacts (farm size, number of farms, nature area, odour) are mixed. In the G scenario combined with the socio-economic Regional Communities (RC) scenario the average dairy gross margin in particular is negatively affected. Social impacts are similarly mixed as in the GE scenario, while environmental impacts are less severe. Our results suggest that integrated assessments at farm and landscape level can be used to guide decision-makers in spatial planning policies and climate change adaptation. As there will always be trade-offs between economic, social, and environmental impacts stakeholders need to interact and decide upon most important directions for policies. This implies a choice between production and income on the one hand and social and environmental services on the other hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable crops; the CAPRI model to estimate impacts on global agricultural markets, specifically product prices; the bio-economic farm model FSSIM to calculate the future changes in cropping patterns and farm net income at the farm and regional level; and the environmental model INTEGRATOR to calculate nitrogen (N) uptake and losses to air and water. First, the four linked models were applied to analyse the effect of climate change only or a most likely baseline (i.e. B1) scenario for 2050 as well as for two alternative scenarios with, respectively, strong (i.e. A1-b1) and weak economic growth (B2) for five regions/countries across Europe (i.e. Denmark, Flevoland, Midi Pyrenées, Zachodniopomorski and Andalucia). These analyses were repeated but assuming in addition to climate change impacts, also the effects of changes in technology and management on crop yields, the effects of changes in prices and policies in 2050, and the effects of all factors together. The outcomes show that the effects of climate change to 2050 result in higher farm net incomes in the Northern and Northern–Central EU regions, in practically unchanged farm net incomes in the Central and Central–Southern EU regions, and in much lower farm net incomes in Southern EU regions compared to those in the base year. Climate change in combination with improved technology and farm management and/or with price changes towards 2050 results in a higher to much higher farm net incomes. Increases in farm net income for the B1 and A1-b1 scenarios are moderately stronger than those for the B2 scenario, due to the smaller increases in product prices and/or yields for the B2 scenario. Farm labour demand slightly to moderately increases towards 2050 as related to changes in cropping patterns. Changes in N 2 O emissions and N leaching compared to the base year are mainly caused by changes in total N inputs from the applied fertilizers and animal manure, which in turn are influenced by changes in crop yields and cropping patterns, whereas NH 3 emissions are mainly determined by assumed improvements in manure application techniques. N emissions and N leaching strongly increase in Denmark and Zachodniopomorski, slightly decrease to moderately increase in Flevoland and Midi-Pyrenées, and strongly decrease in Andalucia, except for NH 3 emissions which zero to moderately decrease in Flevoland and Denmark. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]