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Globally, marine animal distributions are shifting in response to a changing climate. These shifts are usually considered at the species level, but individuals are likely to differ in how they respond to the changing conditions. Here, we investigate how movement behaviour and, therefore, redistribution, would differ by sex and maturation class in a wide-ranging marine predator. We tracked 115 tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) from 2002 to 2020 and forecast class-specific distributions through to 2030, including environmental factors and predicted occurrence of potential prey. Generalised Linear and Additive Models revealed that water temperature change, particularly at higher latitudes, was the factor most associated with shark movements. Females dispersed southwards during periods of warming temperatures, and while juvenile females preferred a narrow thermal range between 22 and 23 °C, adult female and juvenile male presence was correlated with either lower (< 22 °C) or higher (> 23 °C) temperatures. During La Niña, sharks moved towards higher latitudes and used shallower isobaths. Inclusion of predicted distribution of their putative prey significantly improved projections of suitable habitats for all shark classes, compared to simpler models using temperature alone. Tiger shark range off the east coast of Australia is predicted to extend ~ 3.5° south towards the east coast of Tasmania, particularly for juvenile males. Our framework highlights the importance of combining long-term movement data with multi-factor habitat projections to identify heterogeneity within species when predicting consequences of climate change. Recognising intraspecific variability will improve conservation and management strategies and help anticipate broader ecosystem consequences of species redistribution due to ocean warming., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

The ability to predict animal movement based on environmental change is essential for understanding the dynamic nature of their spatial ecology, and in turn the effectiveness of conservation strategies. We used a large marine predator that displays partial migration (the tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier) as a model to test the role of oceanic conditions in predicting the space-use of different size classes. By using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), we revealed that environmental variables (sea surface temperature, primary productivity, thermal fronts, and bathymetry) had much greater predictive power for the movements of large, migratory tiger sharks than for small, resident individuals. We also found that coverage of tiger shark movements within “shark sanctuaries” (protected areas specifically for sharks) in the northwest Atlantic could be increased from 12 to 52% through inclusion of Bermuda’s waters. However, as large tiger sharks are migratory, over 80% of potential longline fisheries interactions would still occur outside the boundaries of even the expanded protected areas. This emphasises that management of highly migratory species needs to be dynamic and account for changing interactions with fisheries over time, which in a changing climate may rely on predicting movements based on oceanic conditions to be effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]