Search

Species ranges are shifting in response to climate change, but most predictions disregard food-web interactions and, in particular, if and how such interactions change through time. Predator-prey interactions could speed up species range shifts through enemy release or create lags through biotic resistance. Here, we developed a spatially explicit model of interacting species, each with a thermal niche and embedded in a size-structured food-web across a temperature gradient that was then exposed to warming. We also created counterfactual single species models to contrast and highlight the effect of trophic interactions on range shifts. We found that dynamic trophic interactions hampered species range shifts across 450 simulated food-webs with up to 200 species each over 200 years of warming. All species experiencing dynamic trophic interactions shifted more slowly than single-species models would predict. In addition, the trailing edges of larger bodied species ranges shifted especially slowly because of ecological subsidies from small shifting prey. Trophic interactions also reduced the numbers of locally novel species, novel interactions and productive species, thus maintaining historical community compositions for longer. Current forecasts ignoring dynamic food-web interactions and allometry may overestimate species' tendency to track climate change.

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km 2 (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km 2 (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support., (© 2020 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Climate shocks can reorganize the social-ecological linkages in food-producing communities, leading to a sudden loss of key products in food systems. The extent and persistence of this reorganization are difficult to observe and summarize, but are critical aspects of predicting and rapidly assessing community vulnerability to extreme events. We apply network analysis to evaluate the impact of a climate shock-an unprecedented marine heatwave-on patterns of resource use in California fishing communities, which were severely affected through closures of the Dungeness crab fishery. The climate shock significantly modified flows of users between fishery resources during the closures. These modifications were predicted by pre-shock patterns of resource use and were associated with three strategies used by fishing community member vessels to respond to the closures: temporary exit from the food system, spillover of effort from the Dungeness crab fishery into other fisheries, and spatial shifts in where crab were landed. Regional differences in resource use patterns and vessel-level responses highlighted the Dungeness crab fishery as a seasonal "gilded trap" for northern California fishing communities. We also detected disparities in climate shock response based on vessel size, with larger vessels more likely to display spatial mobility. Our study demonstrates the importance of highly connected and decentralized networks of resource use in reducing the vulnerability of human communities to climate shocks., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Renewable energy production is necessary to halt climate change and reverse associated biodiversity losses. However, generating the required technologies and infrastructure will drive an increase in the production of many metals, creating new mining threats for biodiversity. Here, we map mining areas and assess their spatial coincidence with biodiversity conservation sites and priorities. Mining potentially influences 50 million km 2 of Earth's land surface, with 8% coinciding with Protected Areas, 7% with Key Biodiversity Areas, and 16% with Remaining Wilderness. Most mining areas (82%) target materials needed for renewable energy production, and areas that overlap with Protected Areas and Remaining Wilderness contain a greater density of mines (our indicator of threat severity) compared to the overlapping mining areas that target other materials. Mining threats to biodiversity will increase as more mines target materials for renewable energy production and, without strategic planning, these new threats to biodiversity may surpass those averted by climate change mitigation.

Cambodian subsistence communities within the Tonle Sap Great Lake area rely on resource extraction from the lake to meet livelihood needs. These fishing communities-many of which consist of dwellings floating on the lake-face potentially profound livelihood challenges because of climate change and changing hydrology due to dam construction for hydroelectricity within the Mekong Basin. We conducted interviews across five village communities, with local subsistence fisher people in the Tonle Sap in 2015, and used thematic analysis methods to reveal a fishery system that is undergoing rapid ecological decline, with local fishing communities increasingly experiencing reductions in available fish stocks. As a result, over 100 000 people living in these communities are experiencing a direct loss of well-being and livelihood. We discuss these losses and consider their implications for the future viability of Cambodian floating village communities.

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

As the terrestrial human footprint continues to expand, the amount of native forest that is free from significant damaging human activities is in precipitous decline. There is emerging evidence that the remaining intact forest supports an exceptional confluence of globally significant environmental values relative to degraded forests, including imperilled biodiversity, carbon sequestration and storage, water provision, indigenous culture and the maintenance of human health. Here we argue that maintaining and, where possible, restoring the integrity of dwindling intact forests is an urgent priority for current global efforts to halt the ongoing biodiversity crisis, slow rapid climate change and achieve sustainability goals. Retaining the integrity of intact forest ecosystems should be a central component of proactive global and national environmental strategies, alongside current efforts aimed at halting deforestation and promoting reforestation.

Drought frequently limits Australian wheat production, and the expected future increase in temperatures and rainfall variability will further challenge productivity. A modelling approach captured plant×environment×management interactions to simulate water-stress patterns experienced by wheat crops at representative locations across the Australian wheatbelt for 33 climate model projections, considering the 'business as usual' emission scenario RCP8.5. The results indicate that projections of future water-stress patterns are region specific. Significant variations in projected impacts were found across climate models, providing local ranges of uncertainty to consider in planning efforts. Most climate models projected an increase in the frequency of severe water-stress conditions in the Western area, the largest producing region, and fewer severe water stresses in other regions. Where found, reductions in water-stress conditions were largely due to shorter crop cycles (a result of warmer temperatures), increased water use efficiency (resulting from increased CO2 levels), and, in some cases, increased local rainfall. Overall, simulations indicate that all areas of the Australian wheatbelt will continue to experience severe water-stress conditions (43.9, 42.6, and 40.2% for 2030, 2050, and 2070 compared with 42.8% for 1990). Given projected frequencies of severe water stress and warmer conditions, efforts towards maintaining or improving yields are essential., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.)

Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses., (© 2017 The Author(s).)

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation., (© 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.)

Conservation of representative facets of geophysical diversity may help conserve biological diversity as the climate changes. We conducted a global classification of terrestrial geophysical diversity and analyzed how land protection varies across geophysical diversity types. Geophysical diversity was classified in terms of soil type, elevation, and biogeographic realm and then compared to the global distribution of protected areas in 2012. We found that 300 (45%) of 672 broad geophysical diversity types currently meet the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 11 of 17% terrestrial areal protection, which suggested that efforts to implement geophysical diversity conservation have a substantive basis on which to build. However, current protected areas were heavily biased toward high elevation and low fertility soils. We assessed 3 scenarios of protected area expansion and found that protection focused on threatened species, if fully implemented, would also protect an additional 29% of geophysical diversity types, ecoregional-focused protection would protect an additional 24%, and a combined scenario would protect an additional 42%. Future efforts need to specifically target low-elevation sites with productive soils for protection and manage for connectivity among geophysical diversity types. These efforts may be hampered by the sheer number of geophysical diversity facets that the world contains, which makes clear target setting and prioritization an important next step., (© 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.)

High levels of species richness and endemism make Myanmar a regional priority for conservation. However, decades of economic and political sanctions have resulted in low conservation investment to effectively tackle threats to biodiversity. Recent sweeping political reforms have placed Myanmar on the fast track to economic development-the expectation is increased economic investments focused on the exploitation of the country's rich, and relatively intact, natural resources. Within a context of weak regulatory capacity and inadequate environmental safeguards, rapid economic development is likely to have far-reaching negative implications for already threatened biodiversity and natural-resource-dependent human communities. Climate change will further exacerbate prevailing threats given Myanmar's high exposure and vulnerability. The aim of this review is to examine the implications of increased economic growth and a changing climate within the larger context of biodiversity conservation in Myanmar. We summarize conservation challenges, assess direct climatological impacts on biodiversity and conclude with recommendations for long-term adaptation approaches for biodiversity conservation.

Species ranges are shifting in response to climate change, but most predictions disregard food-web interactions and, in particular, if and how such interactions change through time. Predator-prey interactions could speed up species range shifts through enemy release or create lags through biotic resistance. Here, we developed a spatially explicit model of interacting species, each with a thermal niche and embedded in a size-structured food-web across a temperature gradient that was then exposed to warming. We also created counterfactual single species models to contrast and highlight the effect of trophic interactions on range shifts. We found that dynamic trophic interactions hampered species range shifts across 450 simulated food-webs with up to 200 species each over 200 years of warming. All species experiencing dynamic trophic interactions shifted more slowly than single-species models would predict. In addition, the trailing edges of larger bodied species ranges shifted especially slowly because of ecological subsidies from small shifting prey. Trophic interactions also reduced the numbers of locally novel species, novel interactions and productive species, thus maintaining historical community compositions for longer. Current forecasts ignoring dynamic food-web interactions and allometry may overestimate species tendency to track climate change.

Global climate change is expected to impact ocean ecosystems through increases in temperature, decreases in pH and oxygen, increased stratification, with subsequent declines in primary productivity. These impacts propagate through the food chain leading to amplified effects on secondary producers and higher trophic levels. Similarly, climate change may disproportionately affect different species, with impacts depending on their ecological niche. To investigate how global environmental change will alter fish assemblages and productivity, we used a spatially explicit mechanistic model of the three main fish functional types reflected in fisheries catches (FEISTY) coupled to an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to make projections out to 2100. We additionally explored the sensitivity of projections to uncertainties in widely used metabolic allometries and their temperature dependence. When integrated globally, the biomass and production of all types of fish decreased under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) compared to mean contemporary conditions. Projections also revealed strong increases in the ratio of pelagic zooplankton production to benthic production, a dominant driver of the abundance of large pelagic fish vs. demersal fish under historical conditions. Increases in this ratio led to a “pelagification” of ecosystems exemplified by shifts from benthic-based food webs toward pelagic-based ones. The resulting pelagic systems, however, were dominated by forage fish, as large pelagic fish suffered from increasing metabolic demands in a warming ocean and from declines in zooplankton productivity that were amplified at higher trophic levels. Patterns of relative change between functional types were robust to uncertainty in metabolic allometries and temperature dependence, though projections of the large pelagic fish had the greatest uncertainty. The same accumulation of trophic impacts that underlies the amplification of productivity trends at higher trophic levels propagates to the projection spread, creating an acutely uncertain future for the ocean’s largest predatory fish.

There are many impediments to conserving threatened birds. Some can be overcome through concerted action across multiple species while others require species-specific research and intensive management. We assess the feasibility of managing 202 threats identified in the Action Plan for Australian Birds across 217 Australian threatened bird taxa against five metrics – financial, technical, temporal, political and social. A higher percentage of all threats to all taxa was assessed as having low or very low financial (43%), technical (32%) or temporal (29%) feasibility than political (9%) or social feasibility (7%). The feasibility of managing the most difficult threat to a taxon was low or very low for 52% of the threats identified. Within Australia, the main impediments to addressing most threats are technical and financial, indicating that research and funding should be domestic conservation priorities. Addressing threats linked to habitat destruction/degradation, climate change, invasive species and pollution is limited by the long timescales required to alleviate them, emphasising the urgency of commencing action. Outside Australia, social and political constraints are the main impediments to Australian conservation managers influencing action on habitat loss, species over-exploitation and climate change, but there are also technical, financial and temporal impediments to reducing threats from pollution, invasive species and climate change. Advocacy is therefore also important for addressing threats facing birds outside Australia. Our study provides a platform upon which to build more explicit and efficient management of threatened birds, prioritise efforts in research, funding and advocacy and contribute to reducing losses from Australia's avifauna. Feasibility analysis can identify the principal constraints on taxon recovery and help shape funding threat-based or species-specific priorities. In Australia, financial and technical deficits are the principal constraints on threat mitigation, emphasising the need for funding and research. Outside Australia, social and political issues are the major problem, requiring diplomacy to effect change. Many threats also face temporal constraints, highlighting the need for sustained funding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most biodiversity monitoring globally tends to concentrate on trends in species' populations and ranges rather than on threats and their management. Here we review the estimated impact of threats and the extent to which their management is understood and implemented for all threats to all Australian threatened bird taxa. The assessment reports the situation in 2020 and how this differs from 2010. The most marked finding was that the impact of climate change has increased greatly over the last decade, and now surpasses invasive species as the threat imposing the heaviest threat load. Climate change has driven recent massive population declines from increased temperatures in tropical montane rainforests and from fire. For both direct climate change impacts and fire management, progress in understanding how to relieve the threats has been slow and patchy. Consequently, little effective management has occurred. By comparison, our analysis showed that the single successful campaign to eradicate introduced mammals from Macquarie Island relieved the total threat load on Australian threatened birds by 5%, and more than halved the load on the birds from oceanic islands. Protection or rehabilitation of habitat, particularly on islands, has also delivered measurable benefit as have, in the longer term, controls on longline fishing. Our approach can be used with other taxonomic groups to understand progress in research and management and to allow quantification of potential benefits from proposed actions, such as the national threatened species plan. Climate change is now the biggest threat to Australian threatened birds, but almost no research or management to mitigate this threat has been undertaken. Most successful threatened species management has been on small islands with invasive species eradication, habitat protection and restoration providing substantial benefits. The approach taken can be used to quantify the benefits of both past conservation interventions and potential interventions. Monitoring trends in threat load complements indices assessing trends in population size and extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the Blue Foods economy—those sectors that gain value from the biological productivity of the oceans such as fisheries and aquaculture—climate shocks pose an existential threat. Species range shifts, harmful algal blooms, marine heatwaves, low oxygen events, coral bleaching, and hurricanes all present a serious economic risk to these industries, and yet there exist few financial tools for managing these risks. This contrasts with agriculture, where financial tools such as insurance are widely available for managing numerous weather-related shocks. Designing financial tools to aid risk management, such as insurance, for equitable resilience against marine climate shocks will give coastal communities access to the necessary means for reducing their sensitivity to climate shocks and improving their long-term adaptive capacity. We suggest that a convergence of the insurance industry and marine sectors, fostered through collaboration with governments, academics, and NGOs will help usher in new forms of insurance, such as ocean-index or parametric insurance. These new risk-management tools have the potential to help incentivize sustainable use of living marine resources, as well as strengthening the economic resilience of coastal communities to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most species were affected by all three categories of fire intensity; 268 threatened species were affected by very-high-intensity fires, 273 were affected by high-intensity fires, and 273 were affected by moderate- and low-intensity fires. The top three actions required by most species were habitat protection (100% of all species; I n i = 290), fire suppression (57% of all species, I n i = 166), and invasive plant management (36% of all species, I n i = 103). To identify threatened species highly affected by the megafire, we used two decision rules for all EPBC Act listed species: >10% of habitat affected by fire + <2000 km SP 2 sp area of occupancy remaining or >10% of habitat affected by fire + <20,000 km SP 2 sp extent of occurrence remaining. The benefit of acting in a location accounts for the number of species being managed there, proportion of fire-affected habitat for each species, and risk of species extinction. [Extracted from the article]

Marine primary productivity is a critical driver of functioning marine ecosystems, providing a foundation for biological diversity and associated economic productivity, and a key component of the oceanic carbon sink. However, it is largely under-represented within the global marine protected area estate and has been widely ignored in global priority assessments for marine conservation. Using global high-resolution data on marine primary productivity and human cumulative impact to marine systems, more than 18.6 million km² of high productivity-low impact areas in the global ocean were identified. These areas occur across all ocean basins and represent the vast majority of marine provinces and ecoregions. Over 80% of these highly productive waters with low levels of human impact lies within national jurisdictions and yet only 11% of the overall identified area is currently safeguarded within designated marine protected areas or sustainable management initiatives, leaving more than 16.5 million km2 of high productivity-low impact areas without those forms of formal protection. The multifaceted contribution of these areas to preserve biodiversity, support human welfare and help mitigating climate change suggest they are an essential, but currently overlooked, conservation priority for consideration in both global nature conservation and human wellbeing policy fora. ● Over 18 million km2 of highly productive waters with low human impact exist globally. ● These areas exist across all ocean basins and most marine provinces and ecoregions. ● Only 11% of these areas lie within marine protected areas and OECMs. ● Over 15 million km2 of these areas occur in waters of national jurisdiction. ● About 3.5 million km2 of these areas occur in areas beyond national jurisdiction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) have been applied worldwide to characterize the critical yet frequently overlooked biodiversity patterns of marine benthic organisms. In order to disentangle the relevance of environmental factors in benthic patterns, here, through standardized metabarcoding protocols, we analyse sessile and mobile (<2 mm) organisms collected using ARMS deployed across six regions with different environmental conditions (3 sites × 3 replicates per region): Baltic, Western Mediterranean, Adriatic, Black and Red Seas, and the Bay of Biscay. A total of 27,473 Amplicon Sequence Variants (ASVs) were observed ranging from 1,404 in the Black Sea to 9,958 in the Red Sea. No ASVs were shared among all regions. The highest number of shared ASVs was between the Western Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea (116) and Bay of Biscay (115). Relatively high numbers of ASVs (103), mostly associated with the genus Amphibalanus, were also shared between the lower salinity seas (Baltic and Black Seas). We found that compositional differences in spatial patterns of rocky‐shore benthos are determined slightly more by dispersal limitation than environmental filtering. Dispersal limitation was similar between sessile and mobile groups, while the sessile group had a larger environmental niche breadth than the mobile group. Further, our study can provide a foundation for future evaluations of biodiversity patterns in the cryptobiome, which can contribute up to 70% of the local biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical tool in assessing ecosystem change is the analysis of long‐term data sets, yet such information is generally sparse and often unavailable for many habitats. Kelp forests are an example of rapidly changing ecosystems that are in most cases data poor. Because kelp forests are highly dynamic and have high intrinsic interannual variability, understanding how regional‐scale drivers are driving kelp populations—and particularly how kelp populations are responding to climate change—requires long‐term data sets. However, much of the work on kelp responses to climate change has focused on just a few, relatively long‐lived, perennial, canopy‐forming species. To understand how kelp populations with different life history traits are responding to climate‐related variability, we leverage 35 yr of Landsat satellite imagery to track the population size of an annual, ruderal kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana, across Oregon. We found high levels of interannual variability in Nereocystis canopy area and varying population trajectories over the last 35 yr. Surprisingly, Oregon Nereocystis population sizes were unresponsive to a 2014 marine heat wave accompanied by increases in urchin densities that decimated northern California Nereocystis populations. Some Oregon Nereocystis populations have even increased in area relative to pre‐2014 levels. Analysis of environmental drivers found that Nereocystis population size was negatively correlated with estimated nitrate levels and positively correlated with winter wave height. This pattern is the inverse of the predicted relationship based on extensive prior work on the perennial kelp Macrocystis pyrifera and may be related to the annual life cycle of Nereocystis. This article demonstrates (1) the value of novel remote sensing tools to create long‐term data sets that may challenge our understanding of nearshore marine species and (2) the need to incorporate life history traits into our theory of how climate change will shape the ocean of the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land‐use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas (PAs), Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and Earth's remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 PAs, 749 KBAs and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in Southeast Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of PAs and KBAs impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intact Forest Landscapes (IFLs) are critical strongholds for the environmental services that they provide, not least for their role in climate protection. On the basis of information about the distributions of IFLs and Indigenous Peoples' lands, we examined the importance of these areas for conserving the world's remaining intact forests. We determined that at least 36% of IFLs are within Indigenous Peoples' lands, making these areas crucial to the mitigation action needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. We also provide evidence that IFL loss rates have been considerably lower on Indigenous Peoples' lands than on other lands, although these forests are still vulnerable to clearing and other threats. World governments must recognize Indigenous Peoples' rights, including land tenure rights, to ensure that Indigenous Peoples play active roles in decision‐making processes that affect IFLs on their lands. Such recognition is critical given the urgent need to reduce deforestation rates in the face of escalating climate change and global biodiversity loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional‐ and local‐scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral–algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5–2.0°C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5°C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the defining force of the Anthropocene, human enterprise is reshaping Earth's surface and climate. As part of that process, growth‐inducing infrastructure, such as electrical transmission lines, export facilities, and roads, presents nonincremental changes in where and how natural resources are exploited. These projects open intact areas, induce or intensify industrial development, and accelerate carbon emissions. The direct impacts of large‐scale infrastructure are widely acknowledged and policy and legislation exists to account for them in environmental decisions. Yet, decision makers often ignore the secondary, growth‐induced effects, even though they can outweigh the impacts of the initial development. Given the extensive area and magnitude of such impacts, we argue that regulatory or funding approvals for growth‐inducing infrastructure represent keystone decisions. Credible approval processes require the consideration of the full range of impacts resulting from the ensuing growth. This will necessitate a shift in assessment thinking, from the traditional focus on the immediate project footprint to one that recognizes the sustainability implications of approving infrastructure that will transform the trajectory of development at regional and national scales. We identify the characteristics of growth‐inducing infrastructure and provide an overview of methods and policy that can facilitate a deliberate assessment of these keystone decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban residents face increasing risk of heat stress due to the combined impact of climate change and intensification of the urban heat island (UHI) associated with urban growth. Considering the combined effect of urban growth and climate change is vital to understanding how temperatures in urban areas will change in the future. This study investigated the impact of urban growth and climate change on the UHI and heat stress in a subtropical city (Brisbane, Australia) in the present day (1991–2000) and medium term (2041–2050; RCP8.5) during summer. A control and urban growth scenario was used to compare the temperature increase from climate change alone with the temperature increase from climate change and urban growth. Average and minimum temperatures increased more with climate change and urban growth combined than with climate change alone, indicating that if urban growth is ignored, future urban temperatures could be underestimated. Under climate change alone, rural temperatures increased more than urban temperatures, decreasing the effect of the UHI by 0.4 °C at night and increasing the urban cool island by 0.8 °C during the day. With climate change, the number of hot days and nights doubled in urban and rural areas in 2041–2050 as compared to 1991–2000. The number of hot nights was higher in urban areas and with urban growth. Dangerous heat stress, defined as apparent temperature above 40 °C, increased with climate change and occurred on average 1–2 days every summer during 2041–2050, even in shaded conditions. There was higher temperature increases with urban growth and climate change than with climate change alone, indicating that reducing the effect of the UHI is vital to ensuring urban growth does not increase the heat stress risks that urban residents will face in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a focus on impacts from mean, long‐term changes in climate is warranted, the vast majority of conservation plans largely ignore another key factor of climate change—changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. A typology of the full range and severity of ecological responses to extreme events would help underpin tracking of their impacts. Location: Global. Methods: Here, we review 519 observational studies of ecological responses to extreme events between 1941 and 2015. We include responses from amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants and reptiles to cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves and heat waves. Results: Negative ecological responses were the most commonly reported, accounting for 57% of all documented responses. There were over 100 cases of a >25% population decline and 31 cases of local extirpation. Sixty per cent of the studies in our review observed ecological responses for more than 1 year, and of the studies that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure to an extreme event, 38% showed species or ecosystems did not recover to pre‐disturbance levels. Main conclusions: Extreme weather and climate events have profound implications for species and ecosystem management. We discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating extreme events into conservation planning efforts, which include how to quantify species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, how to account for interactions between extreme events and other stressors, and how to maximize adaptive capacity to more frequent and intense extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the Global South, community-based adaptation (CBA) projects are increasingly being implemented in an effort to respond effectively and sustainably to the impacts of climate change, with a particular focus on people's livelihoods. Despite an increase in the number of CBA projects being implemented, detailed analysis and evaluation of their efficacy and the barriers faced in achieving successful outcomes is lacking. This study draws on an analysis of grey literature (i.e. project and donor reports) to explore the barriers faced in achieving effective CBA. An extensive global search of online project evaluations yielded 25 documents comprising 69 projects from which this analysis is based. This paper first presents an overview of the 69 projects and highlights any trends. Second, this paper describes the barriers to CBA according to three broad themes: socio-political, resource, and physical systems and processes. Following this is a discussion of the most prevalent barriers: cognitive and behavioural, financial, and human resources. Third, this paper discusses the key findings elucidated from this review. This includes the need for greater sharing of project reports and findings so lessons can be learned across spatial and temporal scales, and the disparity between critical academic literature on CBA and what is implemented in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is causing fish stocks to shift, upending the social-ecological systems that rely on the historic distributions of these stocks and creating or exacerbating fisheries conflicts. The movements of internationally shared stocks between Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) or between EEZs and the high seas are especially concerning because they bring into play a variety of geopolitical factors and equity issues surrounding missing or conflicting regulations of jurisdictional boundary zones. Though many studies have explored the responses to and repercussions of shifting stocks on fisheries management, there is a dearth of interdisciplinary case studies that provide insight into the complexity of conflict formation in shifting transboundary fisheries, and that highlight the initial response stages where inclusion of proactive and cooperative measures can greatly improve a system's resilience to conflict. Our study helps to fill this gap by drawing on the knowledge of a diverse group of experts to analyze four case studies where transboundary stock shifts, geopolitical or governance tensions, and uncertainty regarding the future of the marine environment collide. Through synthesis of case study findings, we create a causal model of fishery conflict, within which we highlight factors that may heighten or mitigate the risk of conflict over shifting resources such as complex histories of power imbalance, unequal access to resources, or a lack of consistent and transparent data collection. Cooperation and equitable decision-making processes are recognized as vital components of internationally shared stock management which can promote lasting, effective, and conflict-resilient fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Conflict over marine fishery resources is a growing security concern. Experts expect that global changes in our climate, food systems and oceans may spark or exacerbate resource conflicts. An initial scan of 803 relevant papers and subsequent intensive review of 31 fisheries conflict studies, focused on subnational and international conflicts, suggests that four substantial scientific gaps need addressing to improve our understanding of the nature and drivers of fisheries conflict. First, fisheries conflict and levels of conflict intensity are not precisely defined. Second, complex adaptive systems thinking is underutilized but has the potential to produce more realistic causal models of fishery conflict. Third, comparative large‐scale data and suitably integrative methodologies are lacking, underscoring the need for a standardized and comparable database of fisheries conflict cases to aid extrapolation beyond single case‐studies. Fourth, there is room for a more widespread application of higher order concepts and associated terminology. Importantly, the four gaps highlight the homogenized nature of current methodological and theoretical approaches to understanding fishery conflict, which potentially presents us with an oversimplified understanding of these conflicts. A more nuanced understanding of the complex and dynamic nature of fishery conflict and its causes is not only scientifically critical, but increasingly relevant for policymakers and practitioners in this turbulent world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds--Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) and cobia (Rachycentron canadum)--is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine social–ecological systems are constantly changing, and fishers who make a living from working the seas are continually adapting in response to different sources of variability. One main way in which fishers can adapt to ecosystem change is to change the fisheries they participate in. This acts to connect fisheries, creating interlinked networks of alternative sources of income for fishers. Here, we synthesize fisheries data and construct fisheries connectivity networks for all major ports in the US California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Fisheries connectivity networks are comprised of nodes, which are fisheries, connected by edges, whose weights are proportional to the number of participating vessels. Fisheries connectivity networks identify central fisheries in the US California Current Large Marine Ecosystem, specifically Dungeness crab and Spiny Lobster, and systematic topological differences, e.g. in network resilience and modularity. These network metrics directly relate to the social vulnerability of coastal fishing communities, especially their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to perturbation. Ultimately, improving knowledge of fisheries connectivity is vital if policy makers are to create governance institutions that allow fishermen to adapt to environmental, technological and management change while at the same time enhancing the social and economic value of fisheries. In doing so, new policies that account for fisheries connectivity, will lead to improved sustainable fisheries management, and enhanced socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Heritage Convention could make a bigger and more systematic contribution to global wilderness conservation by: (1) ensuring the World Heritage List includes full coverage of Earth's wilderness areas with outstanding universal value and (2) more effectively protecting the ecological integrity of existing World Heritage sites. Here, we assess current coverage of global-scale wilderness areas within natural World Heritage sites and identify broad gaps where new wilderness sites should be identified for inclusion in the World Heritage List. We also consider how existing mechanisms under the Convention can improve the ecological integrity of existing sites by expanding or buffering them, and by promoting connectivity between World Heritage sites, between World Heritage sites and other protected areas, or both. We suggest that the Convention should consider a new mechanism called a 'World Heritage Wilderness Complex' to facilitate a wilderness approach. Finally, we map three landscapes and one seascape to illustrate how World Heritage Wilderness Complexes might be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity, conservation strategies must account for the entire range of climate change impacts. A variety of spatial prioritisation techniques have been developed to incorporate climate change. Here, we provide the first standardised review of these approaches. Using a systematic search, we analysed peer-reviewed spatial prioritisation publications (n = 46) and found that the most common approaches (n = 41, 89%) utilised forecasts of species distributions and aimed to either protect future species habitats (n = 24, 52%) or identify climate refugia to shelter species from climate change (n = 17, 37%). Other approaches (n = 17, 37%) used well-established conservation planning principles to combat climate change, aimed at broadly increasing either connectivity (n = 11, 24%) or the degree of heterogeneity of abiotic factors captured in the planning process (n = 8, 17%), with some approaches combining multiple goals. We also find a strong terrestrial focus (n = 35, 76%), and heavy geographical bias towards North America (n = 8, 17%) and Australia (n = 11, 24%). While there is an increasing trend of incorporating climate change into spatial prioritisation, we found that serious gaps in current methodologies still exist. Future research must focus on developing methodologies that allow planners to incorporate human responses to climate change and recognise that discrete climate impacts (e.g. extreme events), which are increasing in frequency and severity, must be addressed within the spatial prioritisation framework. By identifying obvious gaps and highlighting future research needs this review will help practitioners better plan for conservation action in the face of multiple threats including climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Human activities are largely responsible for the processes that threaten biodiversity, yet potential changes in human behaviour as a response to climate change are ignored in most species and site-based vulnerability assessments (VAs). Here we assess how incorporation of the potential impact of climate change on humans alters our view of vulnerability when using well-established site and species VA methodologies. Location Southern Africa. Methods Our baseline was two published studies that used accepted VA methodologies aimed at examining the direct impacts of climate changes on species and sites. The first identified potential shifts in the distributions of 164 restricted-range avian species, the second forecasted species turnover in 331 Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs). We used a published spatially explicit assessment of potential climate change impacts on people to evaluate which species and sites overlap with human populations most likely to be impacted. By doing this, we were able to assess how the integration of potential climate impacts on human populations changes our perception of which species and sites are most vulnerable to climate change. Results We found no correlation between species and sites most likely to be impacted directly by climate change and those where the potential response of human populations could drive major indirect impacts. The relative vulnerability of individual species and sites shifted when potential impacts of climate change on human communities were considered, with more than one-fifth of species and one-tenth of sites moving from 'low' to 'high' risk. Main conclusions Standard VA methodologies that fail to consider how people are likely to respond to climate change will result in systematically biased assessments. This may lead to the implementation of inappropriate management actions, and a failure to address those species or sites that may be uniquely, or additionally, imperilled by the impacts of human responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Resource bottlenecks - periods of severe restriction in resource availability - triggered by increased climate variability represent important and little-understood mechanisms through which climate change will affect biodiversity. In this review, we aim to synthesize the key global change processes that exacerbate the severity of bottlenecks in resource availability on animal populations, and outline how adaptation responses can help buffer the impacts. Location Global. Methods We collate examples from the literature of population-level impacts of resource bottlenecks induced by extreme weather and climate events to explore the types of population impacts that have most frequently been recorded, and the type of extreme events associated with them. We then develop a conceptual framework that captures the factors contributing to species' vulnerability to climate-induced spatial and temporal resource bottlenecks in increasingly variable environments. Results Increases in the frequency, severity and/or duration of extreme weather and climate events can trigger resource bottlenecks that act as powerful demographic constraints on terrestrial fauna, and often exacerbate other human-induced pressures such as land use change. Such phenomena are likely to become more frequent and severe, with potentially nonlinear increases in impact. Forty-nine instances of population-level impacts from climate-induced resource bottlenecks were recorded from the literature, including four extinctions and ten population crashes. Anthropogenic land use change interacts with increasing climatic variability to exacerbate these resource 'crunches', but can sometimes act as a buffer for species. Main Conclusions Resource bottlenecks are likely to be a large class of climate-sensitive stressors whose impacts may play out at the population scale, even well within a species' apparent climatic envelope. More effective conservation responses to climate-related threats include explicit actions, such as managing protected area networks for spatial and temporal resource complementarities, that buffer vulnerable species against bottlenecks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identify policies that would provide a solid foundation in key international negotiations to ensure that primary forests persist into the 21st Century. A novel compilation of primary forest cover and other data revealed that protection of primary forests is a matter of global concern being equally distributed between developed and developing countries. Almost all (98%) of primary forest is found within 25 countries with around half in five developed ones (USA, Canada, Russia, Australia, and NZ). Only ∼22% of primary forest is found in IUCN Protected Areas Categories I-VI, which is approximately 5% of preagriculture natural forest cover. Rates of deforestation and forest degradation are rapid and extensive, and the long-term integrity of primary forest cannot be assumed. We recommend four new actions that could be included in climate change, biodiversity, and sustainable development negotiations: (1) recognize primary forests as a matter of global concern within international negotiations; (2) incorporate primary forests into environmental accounting; (3) prioritize the principle of avoided loss; and (4) universally accept the important role of indigenous and community conserved areas. In the absence of specific policies for primary forest protection, their unique biodiversity values and ecosystem services will continue to erode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]