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After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Seasonality in photosynthetic activity is a critical component of seasonal carbon, water, and energy cycles in the Earth system. This characteristic is a consequence of plant's adaptive evolutionary processes to a given set of environmental conditions. Changing climate in northern lands (>30°N) alters the state of climatic constraints on plant growth, and therefore, changes in the seasonality and carbon accumulation are anticipated. However, how photosynthetic seasonality evolved to its current state, and what role climatic constraints and their variability played in this process and ultimately in carbon cycle is still poorly understood due to its complexity. Here, we take the "laws of minimum" as a basis and introduce a new framework where the timing (day of year) of peak photosynthetic activity (DOYPmax) acts as a proxy for plant's adaptive state to climatic constraints on its growth. Our analyses confirm that spatial variations in DOYPmax reflect spatial gradients in climatic constraints as well as seasonal maximum and total productivity. We find a widespread warming‐induced advance in DOYPmax (−1.66 ± 0.30 days/decade, p < 0.001) across northern lands, indicating a spatiotemporal dynamism of climatic constraints to plant growth. We show that the observed changes in DOYPmax are associated with an increase in total gross primary productivity through enhanced carbon assimilation early in the growing season, which leads to an earlier phase shift in land‐atmosphere carbon fluxes and an increase in their amplitude. Such changes are expected to continue in the future based on our analysis of earth system model projections. Our study provides a simplified, yet realistic framework based on first principles for the complex mechanisms by which various climatic factors constrain plant growth in northern ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming in regions of ice‐rich permafrost can result in widespread thermokarst development, which reconfigures the landscape and damages infrastructure. We present multisite time series observations which couple ground temperature measurements with thermokarst development in a region of very cold permafrost. In the Canadian High Arctic between 2003 and 2016, a series of anomalously warm summers caused mean thawing indices to be 150–240% above the 1979–2000 normal resulting in up to 90 cm of subsidence over the 12‐year observation period. Our data illustrate that despite low mean annual ground temperatures, very cold permafrost (<−10 °C) with massive ground ice close to the surface is highly vulnerable to rapid permafrost degradation and thermokarst development. We suggest that this is due to little thermal buffering from soil organic layers and near‐surface vegetation, and the presence of near‐surface ground ice. Observed maximum thaw depths at our sites are already exceeding those projected to occur by 2090 under representative concentration pathway version 4.5. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost is ground that remains at or below 0 °C for two years or longer and it underlies much of the Arctic. Permafrost in Arctic lowland regions is frequently characterized by large volumes of ground ice which, when it melts, causes the ground surface to collapse. As the Arctic warms, ice‐rich permafrost degradation is expected to be widespread. Our data illustrate that very cold permafrost, which has a mean annual ground temperature of −10 °C or lower, is experiencing a rapid increase in active layer thickness at annual time scales. At three permafrost monitoring sites in the Canadian Arctic we have observed that warmer than average summer air temperatures have caused the active layer to deepen, near‐surface ground ice to melt, and the overlying ground surface to subside, in some cases leading to the formation of small thaw ponds. Our results show that very cold permafrost terrain is responding rapidly to ongoing warming. Key Points: Observed thermokarst development in very cold permafrost at three monitoring sites along a 700‐km transect in the Canadian High ArcticRapid landscape response to above average summer warmth is due to limited thermal buffering from overlying ecosystem components and near‐surface ground iceChange was greatest at Mould Bay where thawing index values were 240% above historic normals causing ~90 cm of subsidence in 12 years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soils in Arctic and boreal ecosystems store twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, a portion of which may be released as high-latitude soils warm. Some of the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the permafrost-climate feedback stems from complex interactions between ecosystem properties and soil thermal dynamics. Terrestrial ecosystems fundamentally regulate the response of permafrost to climate change by influencing surface energy partitioning and the thermal properties of soil itself. Here we review how Arctic and boreal ecosystem processes influence thermal dynamics in permafrost soil and how these linkages may evolve in response to climate change. While many of the ecosystem characteristics and processes affecting soil thermal dynamics have been examined individually (e.g., vegetation, soil moisture, and soil structure), interactions among these processes are less understood. Changes in ecosystem type and vegetation characteristics will alter spatial patterns of interactions between climate and permafrost. In addition to shrub expansion, other vegetation responses to changes in climate and rapidly changing disturbance regimes will affect ecosystem surface energy partitioning in ways that are important for permafrost. Lastly, changes in vegetation and ecosystem distribution will lead to regional and global biophysical and biogeochemical climate feedbacks that may compound or offset local impacts on permafrost soils. Consequently, accurate prediction of the permafrost carbon climate feedback will require detailed understanding of changes in terrestrial ecosystem distribution and function, which depend on the net effects of multiple feedback processes operating across scales in space and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production ( NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many areas of the Arctic are simultaneously affected by rapid climate change and rapid industrial development. These areas are likely to increase in number and size as sea ice melts and abundant Arctic natural resources become more accessible. Documenting the changes that have already occurred is essential to inform management approaches to minimize the impacts of future activities. Here, we determine the cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years (1949-2011) of infrastructure- and climate-related changes in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, the oldest and most extensive industrial complex in the Arctic, and an area with extensive ice-rich permafrost that is extraordinarily sensitive to climate change. We demonstrate that thermokarst has recently affected broad areas of the entire region, and that a sudden increase in the area affected began shortly after 1990 corresponding to a rapid rise in regional summer air temperatures and related permafrost temperatures. We also present a conceptual model that describes how infrastructure-related factors, including road dust and roadside flooding are contributing to more extensive thermokarst in areas adjacent to roads and gravel pads. We mapped the historical infrastructure changes for the Alaska North Slope oilfields for 10 dates from the initial oil discovery in 1968-2011. By 2010, over 34% of the intensively mapped area was affected by oil development. In addition, between 1990 and 2001, coincident with strong atmospheric warming during the 1990s, 19% of the remaining natural landscapes (excluding areas covered by infrastructure, lakes and river floodplains) exhibited expansion of thermokarst features resulting in more abundant small ponds, greater microrelief, more active lakeshore erosion and increased landscape and habitat heterogeneity. This transition to a new geoecological regime will have impacts to wildlife habitat, local residents and industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation productivity trends for the Arctic tundra are updated for the 1982-2011 period and examined in the context of land surface temperatures and coastal sea ice. Understanding mechanistic links between vegetation and climate parameters contributes to model advancements that are necessary for improving climate projections. This study employs remote sensing data: Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) sea-ice concentrations, and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) radiometric surface temperatures. Spring sea ice is declining everywhere except in the Bering Sea, while summer open water area is increasing throughout the Arctic. Summer Warmth Index (SWI-sum of degree months above freezing) trends from 1982 to 2011 are positive around Beringia but are negative over Eurasia from the Barents to the Laptev Seas and in parts of northern Canada. Eastern North America continues to show increased summer warmth and a corresponding steady increase in MaxNDVI. Positive MaxNDVI trends from 1982 to 2011 are generally weaker compared to trends from 1982-2008. So to better understand the changing trends, break points in the time series were quantified using the Breakfit algorithm. The most notable break points identify declines in SWI since 2003 in Eurasia and 1998 in Western North America. The Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI, sum of the biweekly growing season values of MaxNDVI) has declined since 2005 in Eurasia, consistent with SWI declines. Summer (June-August) sea level pressure (slp) averages from 1999-2011 were compared to those from 1982-1998 to reveal higher slp over Greenland and the western Arctic and generally lower pressure over the continental Arctic in the recent period. This suggests that the large-scale circulation is likely a key contributor to the cooler temperatures over Eurasia through increased summer cloud cover and warming in Eastern North America from more cloud-free skies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) calculated from coarse-resolution sensors has shown strong increases since the 1980s on Alaska's North Slope. Finer-resolution satellite data and ground studies are needed to understand the changes in the vegetation that are causing these increases. Analysis of an 823 km² area using a Landsat NDVI time series showed that the homogeneous greening at coarser scales was very heterogeneous at 30-m pixel resolution, with a strong influence due to glacial history. Small scattered patches of pixels with significant increases in NDVI occurred throughout the younger, late Pleistocene glacial deposits. On older, mid-Pleistocene deposits, increases occurred in few, larger patches of mostly tussock-sedge, dwarf-shrub, moss tundra, possibly a result of release of nutrients from thawing of ice-rich permafrost. Five percent of pixels had significant linear increases in NDVI from 1985 to 2007 (n = 6, p < 0.05), while 0.4% showed significant decreases, in small patches whose causes were evident when sampled on the ground. Trends in NDVI varied by glacial history, elevation, slope, and the resulting vegetation conditions. This heterogeneity in response to climate change can be expected throughout much of the Arctic, where complex glacial histories determine existing soil and vegetation characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the authors offer insights on the impacts of incorporating research projects, traditional knowledge and education in ecology. The authors present a biocomplexity study which investigated the links between vegetation, biogeochemical cycles and climate to better anticipate the responses of ecosystem to climatic changes. They note that the engagement of public interest in ecological research maintains support for and integrate science in solutions to environmental problems.

Nonsorted circles are relatively barren patterned-ground features common in most arctic tundra regions. We studied how vegetation changes on nonsorted circles might affect cryogenic processes, which is of relevance as arctic vegetation responds to climate change. Twenty-eight circles at a moist nonacidic tundra site in northern Alaska received one of four treatments: (a) vegetation removal; (b) vegetation removal and sedge transplants; (c) vegetation removal and moss transplants; or (d) no manipulation. We monitored soil-surface temperatures, thaw depth, frost heave, and soil-surface instability as indicators of cryogenic processes for three years. Vegetation removal led to 1.5 °C (22.3%) warmer summer soil-surface temperatures, 4.8 cm (6.2%) deeper mean thaw depth, 3.5 cm (26.2%) greater frost heave and a drastic increase in an index of soil instability when compared to the control. In contrast, moss additions lowered soil-surface temperatures by 2.8 °C (41.8%) in the summer, delayed freezing by almost two weeks and thawing by one week, decreased mean thaw depth by 10.3 cm (14.9%), and decreased frost heave by 6.6 cm (52.4%) when compared to the control. The sedge treatment had intermediate effects on thaw and heave. This study indicates that increases in plant cover and particularly moss cover on nonsorted circles due to a warming climate would decrease the heat flux between the atmosphere and the mineral soil and result in shallower thaw and less frost heave, leading to regional reductions in the activities of nonsorted circles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial heterogeneity of recent decadal dynamics in vegetation greenness and biomass in response to changes in summer warmth index (SWI) was investigated along spatial gradients on the Arctic Slope of Alaska. Image spatial analysis was used to examine the spatial pattern of greenness dynamics from 1991 to 2000 as indicated by variations of the maximum normalized difference vegetation index (Peak NDVI) and time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) along latitudinal gradients. Spatial gradients for both the means and temporal variances of the NDVI indices for 0.1° latitude intervals crossing three bioclimate subzones were analyzed along two north–south Arctic transects. NDVI indices were generally highly variable over the decade, with great heterogeneity across the transects. The greatest variance in TI-NDVI was found in low shrub vegetation to the south (68.7–68.8°N) and corresponded to high fractional cover of shrub tundra and moist acidic tundra (MAT), while the greatest variance in Peak-NDVI predominately occurred in areas dominated by wet tundra (WT) and moist nonacidic tundra (MNT). Relatively high NDVI temporal variances were also related to specific transitional areas between dominant vegetation types. The regional temporal variances of NDVI from 1991 to 2000 were largely driven by meso-scale climate dynamics. The spatial heterogeneity of the NDVI variance was mostly explained by the fractional land cover composition, different responses of each vegetation type to climate change, and patterned ground features. Aboveground plant biomass exhibited similar spatial heterogeneity as TI-NDVI; however, spatial patterns are slightly different from NDVI because of their nonlinear relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice-wedge polygons are widespread and conspicuous surficial expressions of ground-ice in permafrost landscapes. Thawing of ice wedges triggers differential ground subsidence, local ponding, and persistent changes to vegetation and hydrologic connectivity across the landscape. Here we characterize spatio-temporal patterns of ice-wedge degradation since circa 1950 across environmental gradients on Alaska’s North Slope. We used a spectral thresholding approach validated by field observations to map flooded thaw pits in high-resolution images from circa 1950, 1982, and 2012 for 11 study areas (1577–4460 ha). The total area of flooded pits increased since 1950 at 8 of 11 study areas (median change +3.6 ha; 130.3%). There were strong regional differences in the timing and extent of degradation; flooded pits were already extensive by 1950 on the Chukchi coastal plain (alluvial-marine deposits) and subsequent changes there indicate pit stabilization. Degradation began more recently on the central Beaufort coastal plain (eolian sand) and Arctic foothills (yedoma). Our results indicate that ice-wedge degradation in northern Alaska cannot be explained by late-20th century warmth alone. Likely mechanisms for asynchronous onset include landscape-scale differences in surficial materials and ground-ice content, regional climate gradients from west (maritime) to east (continental), and regional differences in the timing and magnitude of extreme warm summers after the Little Ice Age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate archives available from deep sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes, and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that, during the last decade (2000s), atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago, when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions during the last 10,000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during the recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to strongly influence both regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. Projections from climate models are investigated to quantify the magnitude and rates of future changes in Greenland temperature, which may be faster than past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Within one century, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland may reach temperatures last time encountered during the last interglacial period, approximately 125,000 years ago. We review and discuss whether analogies between the last interglacial and future changes are reasonable, because of the different seasonal impacts of orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Over several decades to centuries, future Greenland melt may act as a negative feedback, limiting regional warming albeit with global sea level and climatic impacts. WIREs Clim Change 2012 doi: 10.1002/wcc.186 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic vegetation distribution is largely controlled by climate, particularly summer temperatures. Summer temperatures have been increasing in the Arctic and this trend is expected to continue. Arctic vegetation has been shown to change in response to increases in summer temperatures, which in turn affects arctic fauna, human communities and industries. An understanding of the relationship of existing plant communities to temperature is important in order to monitor change effectively. In addition, variation along existing climate gradients can help predict where and how vegetation changes may occur as climate warming continues. In this study we described the spatial relationship between satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST), circumpolar arctic vegetation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). LST, mapped as summer warmth index (SWI), accurately portrayed temperature gradients due to latitude, elevation and distance from the coast. The SWI maps also reflected NDVI patterns, though NDVI patterns were more complex due to the effects of lakes, different substrates and different-aged glacial surfaces. We found that for the whole Arctic, a 5 °C increase in SWI along the climate gradient corresponded to an increase in NDVI of approximately 0.07. This result supports and is of similar magnitude as temporal studies showing increases of arctic NDVI corresponding to increases in growing season temperatures over the length of the satellite record. The strongest positive relationship between NDVI and SWI occurred in partially vegetated and graminoid vegetation types. Recently deglaciated areas, areas with many water bodies, carbonate soil areas, and high mountains had lower NDVI values than predicted by SWI. Plant growth in these areas was limited by substrate factors as well as temperature, and thus is likely to respond less to climate warming than other areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Widespread degradation of ice wedges has been observed during the last decades in numerous areas within the continuous permafrost zone of Eurasia and North America. To study ice-wedge degradation, we performed field investigations at Prudhoe Bay and Barrow in northern Alaska during 2011–2016. In each study area, a 250-m transect was established with plots representing different stages of ice-wedge degradation/stabilization. Field work included surveying ground- and water-surface elevations, thaw-depth measurements, permafrost coring, vegetation sampling, and ground-based LiDAR scanning. We described cryostratigraphy of frozen soils and stable isotope composition, analyzed environmental characteristics associated with ice-wedge degradation and stabilization, evaluated the vulnerability and resilience of ice wedges to climate change and disturbances, and developed new conceptual models of ice-wedge dynamics that identify the main factors affecting ice-wedge degradation and stabilization and the main stages of this quasi-cyclic process. We found significant differences in the patterns of ice-wedge degradation and stabilization between the two areas, and the patterns were more complex than those previously described because of the interactions of changing topography, water redistribution, and vegetation/soil responses that can interrupt or reinforce degradation. Degradation of ice wedges is usually triggered by an increase in the active-layer thickness during exceptionally warm and wet summers or as a result of flooding or disturbance. Vulnerability of ice wedges to thermokarst is controlled by the thickness of the intermediate layer of the upper permafrost, which overlies ice wedges and protects them from thawing. In the continuous permafrost zone, degradation of ice wedges rarely leads to their complete melting; and in most cases wedges eventually stabilize and can then resume growing, indicating a somewhat cyclic and reversible process. Stabilization of ice wedges after their partial degradation makes them better protected than before degradation because the intermediate layer is usually 2 to 3 times thicker on top of stabilized ice wedges than on top of initial ice wedges in undisturbed conditions. As a result, the likelihood of formation of large thaw lakes in the continuous permafrost zone triggered by ice-wedge degradation alone is very low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]