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Rice production in coastal wetlands provides critical ecosystem services that range from flood control to wildlife habitat. In the Iberian Peninsula rice was introduced in the 10th Century. Today Iberian rice accounts for about one quarter of the total rice production of the European Union, almost exclusively cultivated in the coastal wetlands of Spain, with permanent flooding. The intensive water management required to produce rice stands at a crucial point since freshwater supply is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate. Here we explore flexible adaptation options to climate change in the Doñana wetlands - a world heritage and biodiversity site - from two points of view: What are the policy options for agricultural water management in view of climate change? How can informed stakeholders contribute to better adaptation? The first question is addressed by simulating water availability to farmers with the WAAPA model under a range of adaptation policy options derived from the view of the local communities. The second question was addressed by means of participatory research. Adaptation options are framed according to the local environmental, social and policy context. Results suggest that perception on the potential role of new water infrastructure and farming subsidies dominates the view of local communities. The choices of the stakeholders that could be simulated with the hydrological model, were quantified in terms of additional water availability for the rice farming, therefore providing a quantitative measure to the qualitative solutions. Information provided during the study shaped the final adaptation options developed. Our research contributes to the definition of sustainable rice production in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming and drying trends in the Mediterranean Basin exacerbate regional water scarcity and threaten agricultural production, putting global food security at risk. This study aimed to review the most significant research on future water availability for the Mediterranean agricultural sector under climate change (CC) scenarios published during 2009–2024. Two searches were performed in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, to which previously identified significant studies from different periods were also added. By applying a methodology duly protocoled in the PRISMA2020-based guideline, a final number of 44 particularly relevant studies was selected for review. A bibliometric analysis has shown that most of the published research was focused on Southwestern European countries (i.e., Spain, Italy, Portugal) and grapevine and olive tree crops. Overall, the reviewed studies state that future Mediterranean water reserves may not meet agricultural water demands, due to reduced reservoir inflows and higher irrigation demands under future CC and socioeconomic scenarios. Regarding adaptation measures to improve water-use management in agriculture, the majority of the reviewed studies indicate that the use of integrated modelling platforms and decision–support systems can significantly contribute to the development and implementation of improved water/land-management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water availability is of paramount importance for sustainable development and environmental planning, specifically in regions such as the Iberian Peninsula, renowned for diverse landscapes and varying climatic conditions. Due to climate change, understanding the potential impacts on water resources becomes essential for effective water management strategies. This research effort aims to assess future potential water availability for the Iberian Peninsula in different climate scenarios, employing cutting-edge water resource modelling techniques integrated within a geographic information system (GIS) framework. In this study, potential water availability is defined as the annual demand for water that can be satisfied at a specific point in the fluvial network with certain reliability. An ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models is utilised to project runoff for the Iberian Peninsula during the mid- and late-twenty-first century periods. These climate projections were subsequently processed using the GIS-based water resource management model, WAAPA, to derive potential water availability under a range of realistic hypotheses. The results indicate that anticipated shifts in precipitation patterns will lead to alterations in hydrological regimes across the region, significantly impacting future water availability. By using GIS-based methodologies, we can facilitate the identification of vulnerable areas susceptible to changes in water availability, offering spatially explicit information along the main rivers of the Iberian Peninsula for decision-makers and stakeholders. High-resolution spatial outputs from this research and detailed water availability estimates serve as valuable input for integrated water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. By combining advanced GIS-based hydrological modelling with climate scenarios, this research presents a robust framework for assessing water resources amidst a changing climate, applicable to other regions struggling with analogous challenges. Ultimately, our study provides vital insights for policymakers and stakeholders, empowering them to make informed decisions and devise adaptive measures to ensure sustainable use of water resources despite uncertain future climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a regional assessment of future blue water availability in Europe under different assumptions. The baseline period (1960 to 1999) is compared to the near future (2020 to 2059) and the long-term future (2060 to 2099). Blue water availability is estimated as the maximum amount of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, taking into account specified reliability requirements. Water availability is computed with the geospatial high-resolution Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment (WAAPA) model. The WAAPA model definition for this study extends over 6 million km2 in Europe and considers almost 4000 sub-basins in Europe. The model takes into account 2300 reservoirs larger than 5 hm3, and the dataset of Hydro 1k with 1700 sub-basins. Hydrological scenarios for this study were taken from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-Comparison Project and included simulations of five global climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. The choice of method is useful for evaluating large area regional studies that include high resolution on the systems´ characterization. The results highlight large uncertainties associated with a set of local water availability estimates across Europe. Climate model uncertainties for mean annual runoff and potential water availability were found to be higher than scenario uncertainties. Furthermore, the existing hydraulic infrastructure and its management have played an important role by decoupling water availability from hydrologic variability. This is observed for all climate models, the emissions scenarios considered, and for near and long-term future. The balance between water availability and withdrawals is threatened in some regions, such as the Mediterranean region. The results of this study contribute to defining potential challenges in water resource systems and regional risk areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated different management alternatives to enhance potential water availability for agriculture under climate change scenarios. The management goal involved maximizing potential water availability, understood as the maximum volume of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, and taking into account specified reliability requirements. We focused on potential water availability for agriculture and assumed two types of demands: urban supply and irrigation. If potential water availability was not enough to satisfy all irrigation demands, management measures were applied aiming at achieving a compromise solution between resources and demands. The methodological approach consisted of estimation and comparison of runoff for current and future period under climate change effects, calculation of water availability changes due to changes in runoff, and evaluation of the adaptation choices that can modify the distribution of water availability, under climate change. Adaptation choices include modifying water allocation to agriculture, increasing the reservoir storage capacity, improving the efficiency of urban water use, and modifying water allocation to environmental flows. These management measures were evaluated at the desired points of the river network by applying the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model. We simulated the behavior of a set of reservoirs that supply water for a set of prioritized demands, complying with specified ecological flows and accounting for evaporation losses. We applied the methodology in six representative basins of southern Europe: Duero-Douro, Ebro, Guadalquivir, Po, Maritsa-Evros, and Struma-Strymon. While in some basins, such as the Ebro or Struma-Strymon, measures can significantly increase water availability and compensate for a fraction of water scarcity due to climate change, in other basins, like the Guadalquivir, water availability cannot be enhanced by applying the management measures analyzed, and irrigation water use will have to be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy sources, due to their direct (e.g., wind turbines) or indirect (e.g., hydropower, with precipitation being the generator of runoff) dependence on climatic variables, are foreseen to be affected by climate change. In this research, two run-of-river small hydropower plants (SHPPs) located at different water districts in Greece are being calibrated and validated, in order to be simulated in terms of future power production under climate change conditions. In doing so, future river discharges derived by the forcing of a hydrology model, by three Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways, are used as inputs for the simulation of the SHPPs. The research concludes, by comparing the outputs of short-term (2031–2060) and long-term (2071–2100) future periods to a reference period (1971–2000), that in the case of a significant projected decrease in river discharges (~25–30%), a relevant important decrease in the simulated future power generation is foreseen (~20–25%). On the other hand, in the decline projections of smaller discharges (up to ~15%) the generated energy depends on the intermonthly variations of the river runoff, establishing that runoff decreases in the wet months of the year have much lower impact on the produced energy than those occurring in the dry months. The latter is attributed to the non-existence of reservoirs that control the operation of run-of-river SHPPs; nevertheless, these types of hydropower plants can partially remediate the energy losses, since they are taking advantage of low flows for hydropower production. Hence, run-of-river SHPPs are designated as important hydro-resilience assets against the projected surface water availability decrease due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent trends suggest that streamflow discharge is diminishing in many rivers of Southern Europe and that interannual variability is increasing. This threatens to aggravate water scarcity problems that periodically arise in this region, because both effects will deteriorate the performance of reservoirs, decreasing their reliable yield. Reservoir storage is the key infrastructure to overcome variability and to enhance water availability in semiarid climates. This paper presents an analysis of the role of reservoir storage in preserving water availability under climate change scenarios. The study is focused on 16 major Southern European basins. Potential water availability was calculated in these basins under current condition and for 35 different climatic projections for the period 2070–2100. The results show that the expected reduction of water availability is comparable to the decrease of the mean annual flow in basins with large storage capacity. For basins with small storage, the expected reduction of water availability is larger than the reduction of mean annual flow. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by replicating the analysis assuming variable reservoir volumes from 25% to 175% of current storage. The results show that increasing storage capacity attenuates the reduction of water availability and reduces its uncertainty under climate change projections. This feature would allow water managers to develop suitable policies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, thus enhancing the resilience of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions is expected to alter the natural availability of water, affecting domestic, agricultural and industrial uses. This work aims at assessing the possible future impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature and runoff, and to simulate the effects on reservoir demand–performance curves. To this aim, a modeling chain is set up, based on the combined use of regional climate models (RCMs) and water supply system simulation models. The methodology is applied to the Pozzillo reservoir, located in Sicily (Italy), which has experienced several droughts in the past. We use an RCM model that, based on a previous study, has proved to be the most reliable in the area, among those of the EURO-CORDEX initiative. RCM precipitation and temperature monthly time series are used to generate future reservoir inflow data, according to two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 (intermediate emissions scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emissions scenario) and a two-step bias correction procedure. Simulation of the reservoir indicated that, due to reservoir inflow reduction induced by climate change, performances of the Pozzillo reservoir are predicted to decrease significantly in the future, with impacts of RCP8.5 generally higher than RCP4.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]