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Measures to reduce lake phosphorus concentrations have been encouragingly successful in many parts of the world. After significant eutrophication in the twentieth century, nutrient concentrations have declined in many natural settings. In addition to these direct anthropogenic impacts, however, climate change is also altering various processes in lakes. Its effects on lacustrine nutrient budgets remain poorly understood. Here we investigate the total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the epilimnion of the meromictic Lake Zug under present and future climatic conditions. Results are compared with those of other deep lakes. Data showed that TP transported from the hypolimnion by convective winter mixing was the most important source of TP for the epilimnion, reaching values more than ten times higher than the external input from the catchment. We found a logarithmic relationship between winter mixing depth (WMD) and epilimnetic TP content in spring. Warming climate affects WMD mainly due to its dependence on autumn stratification. Model simulations predict a reduction of average WMD from 78 (current) to 65 m in 2085 assuming IPCC scenario A2. Other scenarios show similar but smaller changes in the future. In scenario A2, climate change is predicted to reduce epilimnetic TP concentrations by up to 24% during warm winters and may consequently introduce significant year-to-year variability in primary productivity.

Low concentrations of dissolved oxygen remain a global concern regarding the ecological health of lakes and reservoirs. In addition to high nutrient loads, climate-induced changes in lake stratification and mixing represent additional anthropogenic menace resulting in decreased deepwater oxygen levels. The analysis of 43 years of monitoring data from Lake Geneva shows no decreasing trend neither in the areal hypolimnetic mineralization rate nor in the extent of hypoxia. Instead, hypoxic conditions are predominantly controlled by deep mixing in winter and much less by the trophic variations over the past decades. To reproduce winter mixing, the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model SIMSTRAT was specially adapted to deep lakes and run for several climate scenarios. The simulations predicted a decrease in the maximum winter mixing depth from an average of ∼172 m for 1981–2012 to ∼136 m and ∼127 m in response to predicted atmospheric temperatures between 2045–2076 and 2070–2101 according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. Concurrently, events with complete homogenization of temperature and oxygen in winter will decrease by ∼50%. Consequently, the hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations will significantly decrease. These results demonstrate that changes in deep mixing can have stronger impact than eutrophication on the deepwater oxygen levels of oligomictic lakes.

In many countries water quality is a major concern for drinking water management authorities. Freshwater is a limited resource and the demand for good-quality water from natural aquatic systems is therefore high. Additional stress arises from anthropogenic emissions of nutrients, chemicals, pathogens, heat and hydrological alterations as well as from the ongoing global climate change. In this thesis the relevant recent past, present and future factors affecting water quality in the perialpine Lake Biel, used as a source for drinking water, was investigated. Through measurements in the field combined with hydrodynamic logical modelling in one and three dimensions, optimal locations for forthcoming lake water intakes was identified. Water quality properties considered were temperature, oxygen, suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and the risk of subaqueous mass movements. The results identified the forthcoming changes expected in Lake Biel due to the upcoming decommission of the Mühleberg Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP) in 2019. This plant currently release ~700 MW of heat into the upstream Aare River in the form of cooling water. The removal of this anthropogenic thermal source will decrease future lake temperature by ~0.3 °C (volume average). Due to seasonal river discharge patterns, the main impact of the plant closure will occur during winter. Minor effects are expected in summer in the form of moderately weaker lake stratification. Furthermore, the current fate of thermal pollution emitted from MNPP was linked to the hydraulic residence time of Lake Biel. While short-term anthropogenic thermal impacts in Lake Biel can be large, the system is additionally experiencing continuous warming up to ~0.1 °C per decade (volume average) by the ongoing climate change. The climate effect on Lake Biel and its primary tributary, the Aare River, was investigated as well as compared to the much larger Lake Geneva and Rhône River. Climate change causes seasonal river discharge shifts resulting in enhanced river warming in summer and diminished warming in winter, while at the same time SSC increases in winter and decreases in summer. Differences in temperature as well as warming rates between rivers and lakes in turn resulted in a discharge and hydraulic residence time-dependent decrease in climate warming of lakes. Furthermore, deep-water renewal in both lakes is predicted to increase in summer and decreases in winter, possibly influencing the replenishment of deep water oxygen. Additionally, sedimentation patterns in Lake Biel were examined and linked to the historical diversion of the Aare River into the lake. The majority of sediment supplied to Lake Biel (~80 %) came from large SSC events in the Aare. These events resulted in a selective particle settling pattern, which concentrated sedimentation on the shallow shelf area North-East of the Aare delta. Both the large SSC events as well as this selective sedimentation pattern were connected to weather fronts coming in from the Atlantic Ocean. The research performed here opens up for further promising interdisciplinary research between Meteorology, Climatology, Hydrology and Sedimentology. Inland water management would benefit through increased knowledge regarding the propagation of particles and/or anthropogenic heat, from river catchments into downstream lakes and sediments.

In this study, a hydrodynamical model is coupled to a biogeochemical model, and then used to simulate the main physical, chemical and biological characteristics of Lake Geneva. The study period, going from 1981 to 2016 was marked by two major changes with concomitant effects: re-oligotrophication by reducing the phosphorus loading and climate change. Thanks to the calibrated model, changes of the ecosystem related to climate change and re-oligotrophication were disentangled. It resulted in a positive effect of the former on phytoplankton biomass and primary production, and a negative effect of the latter. The combined effects of these two majors changes are negative. However, these results have a large uncertainty related to the capacity of the model to reproduce the biological characters of Lake Geneva. The calibration procedure must be improved to ensure a higher relevance of the results.