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The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation and behavioural thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs Rana temporaria along elevational gradients. Furthermore, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. Our analyses revealed that high-elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favour more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioural adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioural thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates., (© 2020 British Ecological Society.)

Insights into the causal mechanisms that limit species distributions are likely to improve our ability to anticipate species range shifts in response to climate change. For species with complex life histories, a mechanistic understanding of how climate affects different lifecycle stages may be crucial for making accurate forecasts. Here, we use mechanistic niche modeling (NicheMapR) to derive "proximate" (mechanistic) variables for tadpole, juvenile, and adult Rana temporaria. We modeled the hydroperiod, and maximum and minimum temperatures of shallow (30 cm) ponds, as well as activity windows for juveniles and adults. We then used those ("proximate") variables in correlative ecological niche models (Maxent) to assess their role in limiting the species' current distribution, and to investigate the potential effects of climate change on R. temporaria across Europe. We further compared the results with a model based on commonly used macroclimatic ("distal") layers (i.e., bioclimatic layers from WorldClim). The maximum temperature of the warmest month (a macroclimatic variable) and maximum pond temperatures (a mechanistic variable) were the most important range-limiting factors, and maximum temperature thresholds were consistent with the observed upper thermal limit of R. temporaria tadpoles. We found that range shift forecasts in central Europe are far more pessimistic when using distal macroclimatic variables, compared to projections based on proximate mechanistic variables. However, both approaches predicted extensive decreases in climatic suitability in southern Europe, which harbors a significant fraction of the species' genetic diversity. We show how mechanistic modeling provides ways to depict gridded layers that directly reflect the microenvironments experienced by organisms at continental scales, and to reconstruct those predictors without extrapolation under novel future conditions. Furthermore, incorporating those predictors in correlative ecological niche models can help shed light on range-limiting processes, and can have substantial impacts on predictions of climate-induced range shifts., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Accurate forecasts of biological invasions are crucial for managing invasion risk but are hampered by niche shifts resulting from evolved environmental tolerances (fundamental niche shifts) or the presence of novel biotic and abiotic conditions in the invaded range (realized niche shifts). Distinguishing between these kinds of niche shifts is impossible with traditional, correlative approaches to invasion forecasts, which exclusively consider the realized niche. Here we overcome this challenge by combining a physiologically mechanistic model of the fundamental niche with correlative models based on the realized niche to study the global invasion of the cane toad Rhinella marina. We find strong evidence that the success of R. marina in Australia reflects a shift in the species' realized niche, as opposed to evolutionary shifts in range-limiting traits. Our results demonstrate that R. marina does not fill its fundamental niche in its native South American range and that areas of niche unfilling coincide with the presence of a closely related species with which R. marina hybridizes. Conversely, in Australia, where coevolved taxa are absent, R. marina largely fills its fundamental niche in areas behind the invasion front. The general approach taken here of contrasting fundamental and realized niche models provides key insights into the role of biotic interactions in shaping range limits and can inform effective management strategies not only for invasive species but also for assisted colonization under climate change.

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions., (© 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Aim: Geographic range size varies greatly across species. Climate, along with aspects of a species' biology, may influence its spatial extent. We investigate intrinsic and extrinsic predictors of range size in Australian skinks. We predicted that larger body size, longer limbs, and larger clutch sizes would be associated with larger ranges, and that ranges would be larger in colder, more arid, and more seasonal climates. Location: Mainland Australia. Taxon: Skinks (Scincidae). Methods: We test for climatic and geographic correlates of range size of Australian skink species (417 of 462 described species), as well as investigate the effects of body size and clutch size (259 species). We compare detailed morphological measurements of 1,324 specimens across nine pairs of widespread and narrow‐ranged congeneric species to investigate the roles of intrinsic (body size, clutch size, morphology) and extrinsic (mean temperature and precipitation) factors in determining range size. Results: In the broader analysis, large range sizes were associated with the presence of fully developed limbs, low precipitation seasonality, high temperatures, and high precipitation. Ranges of species traversing the Great Dividing Range are larger by an order of magnitude than those east of the range, with western ranges being intermediate. Affinity to specific biomes explained less variation than climatic variables. For the nine species pairs, wide‐ranging species share similar morphologies and clutch sizes with overlapping narrow‐ranging congeners, but generally inhabit more arid regions. Main conclusions: We found several extrinsic, but few intrinsic, factors were correlated with range size. The narrow mesic belts in Australia compared with the extensive expanse of arid and semi‐arid regions may explain why desert species have larger ranges. This interpretation agrees with the notion that the size of the domain, here a climatic domain rather than a physical one, may exert strong influence on species' range sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Climatic oscillations throughout the Quaternary had profound effects on temperate biodiversity, but the extent of Quaternary climate change was more severe in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. We sought to determine whether this geographic disparity differentially influenced the timing of intraspecific diversification events within ectothermic and endothermic vertebrate species. Using published phylogenetic hypotheses, we gathered data on the oldest intraspecific diversification event within mammal, bird, freshwater fish, amphibian, and reptile species from temperate-zone areas. We then tested whether the timing of diversification events differed between hemispheres. Results Our analyses provide strong evidence that vertebrates from temperate regions of the northern hemisphere are younger than those from the southern hemisphere. However, we find little evidence to suggest that this relationship differs between endotherms versus ectotherms, or that it varies widely across the five classes of vertebrates that we considered. In addition, we find that on average, endothermic species are much younger than ectothermic species. Conclusion Our findings suggest that geographic variation in the magnitude of climatic oscillations during the Quaternary led to substantial disparity in the timing of intraspecific diversification events between northern and southern hemisphere vertebrates, and that the magnitude of this divergence is largely congruent across vertebrate taxa.

Aim: Climatic variation has long been regarded as a primary source of morphological variation. However, there is mixed support for the adherence of reptiles to ecogeographical hypotheses, such as Bergmann's rule (body size decreases with temperature) and Allen's rule (limb length increases with temperature). We quantified body and limb morphology among the diverse Australian gecko fauna (4 families, 30 genera, 226 of the 231 described species) to investigate environmental correlates of morphological variation in this radiation. Location: Australia. Major taxa studied: Geckos (Squamata: Gekkota; the families Gekkonidae, Carphodactylidae, Diplodactylidae and Pygopodidae). Methods: We measured 20 external features of ethanol‐preserved museum specimens. We investigated whether principal component axes of morphology were correlated with three key environmental variables, and the microhabitat occupied by each species. Results: Morphology varied greatly among Australian gecko families and genera, although there was a strong phylogenetic signal in morphology. After accounting for phylogeny, morphology was correlated with a species' microhabitat use. Saxicolous species and species with variable microhabitat requirements (i.e., generalists) had larger body dimensions than terrestrial species. Saxicolous species also had longer proportional forelimbs and hindlimbs than terrestrial species. Main conclusions: Our results highlight the importance of phylogeny and microhabitat use in shaping the morphology of Australian geckos. We find little evidence that Australian geckos adhere to Bergmann's rule or Allen's rule, suggesting that these ecogeographical hypotheses provide limited insight into the adaptive potential of lizard species to altered environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of realized niche shifts in alien species typically ignore the potential effects of intraspecific niche variation and different invaded-range environments on niche lability. We incorporate our detailed knowledge of the native-range source populations and global introduction history of the delicate skink Lampropholis delicata to examine intraspecific variation in realized niche expansion and unfilling, and investigate how alternative niche modelling approaches are affected by that variation. We analyzed the realized niche dynamics of L. delicata using an ordination method, ecological niche models (ENMs), and occurrence records from 1) Australia (native range), 2) New Zealand, 3) Hawaii, 4) the two distinct native-range clades that were the sources for the New Zealand and Hawaii introductions, and 5) the species' global range (including Lord Howe Island, Australia). We found a gradient of realized niche change across the invaded ranges of L. delicata: niche stasis on Lord Howe Island, niche unfilling in New Zealand (16%), and niche unfilling (87%) and expansion (14%) in Hawaii. ENMs fitted to native-range data generally identified suitable climatic conditions at sites where the species has established non-native populations, whereas ENMs based on native-range source clades and non-native populations had lower spatial transferability. Our results suggest that the extent to which realized niches are maintained during invasion does not depend on species-level traits. When realized niche shifts are predominately due to niche unfilling, fully capturing species' responses along climatic gradients by basing ENMs on native distributions may be more important for accurate invasion forecasts than incorporating phylogenetic differentiation, or integrating niche changes in the invaded range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the factors that determine rates of range expansion is not only crucial for developing risk assessment schemes and management strategies for invasive species, but also provides important insight into the ability of species to disperse in response to climate change. However, there is little knowledge on why some invasions spread faster than others at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we examine the effects of human activities, species traits and characteristics of the invaded range on spread rates using a global sample of alien reptile and amphibian introductions. We show that spread rates vary remarkably among invaded locations within a species, and differ across biogeographical realms. Spread rates are positively related to the richness of native congeneric species and human-assisted dispersal in the invaded range but are negatively correlated with topographic heterogeneity. Our findings highlight the importance of environmental characteristics and human-assisted dispersal in developing robust frameworks for predicting species' range shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The microclimate experienced by organisms is determined by local weather conditions. Yet the environmental data available for predicting the effect of climate on the distribution and abundance of organisms are typically in the form of long-term average monthly climate measured at standardized heights above the ground., Here, we demonstrate how hourly microclimates can be modelled mechanistically over decades at the continental scale with biologically suitable accuracy., We extend the microclimate model of the software package niche mapper to capture spatial and temporal variation in soil thermal properties and integrate it with gridded soil and weather data for Australia at 0·05° resolution., When tested against historical observations of soil temperature, the microclimate model predicted 85% of the variation in hourly soil temperature across 10 years from the surface to 1 m deep with an accuracy of 2-3·3 °C ( c. 10% of the temperature range at a given depth) across an extremely climatically diverse range of sites., This capacity to accurately and mechanistically predict hourly local microclimates across continental scales creates new opportunities for understanding how organisms respond to changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensification of the use of natural resources is a world-wide trend driven by the increasing demand for water, food, fibre, minerals and energy. These demands are the result of a rising world population, increasing wealth and greater global focus on economic growth. Land use intensification, together with climate change, is also driving intensification of the global hydrological cycle. Both processes will have major socio-economic and ecological implications for global water availability. In this paper we focus on the implications of land use intensification for the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems using Australia as an example. We consider this in the light of intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change, and associated hydrological scenarios that include the occurrence of more intense hydrological events (extreme storms, larger floods and longer droughts). We highlight the importance of managing water quality, the value of providing environmental flows within a watershed framework and the critical role that innovative science and adaptive management must play in developing proactive and robust responses to intensification. We also suggest research priorities to support improved systemic governance, including adaptation planning and management to maximise freshwater biodiversity outcomes while supporting the socio-economic objectives driving land use intensification. Further research priorities include: i) determining the relative contributions of surface water and groundwater in supporting freshwater ecosystems; ii) identifying and protecting freshwater biodiversity hotspots and refugia; iii) improving our capacity to model hydro-ecological relationships and predict ecological outcomes from land use intensification and climate change; iv) developing an understanding of long term ecosystem behaviour; and v) exploring systemic approaches to enhancing governance systems, including planning and management systems affecting freshwater outcomes. A major policy challenge will be the integration of land and water management, which increasingly are being considered within different policy frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]