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A recent synthesis study found 54% of the high-latitude peatlands have been drying and 32% have been wetting over the past centuries, illustrating their complex ecohydrological dynamics and highly uncertain responses to a warming climate. High-latitude peatlands are changing rapidly in response to climate change, including permafrost thaw. Here, we reconstruct hydrological conditions since the seventeenth century using testate amoeba data from 103 high-latitude peat archives. We show that 54% of the peatlands have been drying and 32% have been wetting over this period, illustrating the complex ecohydrological dynamics of high latitude peatlands and their highly uncertain responses to a warming climate.

Peatlands are valuable archives of information about past environmental conditions and represent a globally-important carbon store. Robust proxy methods are required to reconstruct past ecohydrological dynamics in high-latitude peatlands to improve our understanding of change in these carbon-rich ecosystems. The High Arctic peatlands in Svalbard are at the northern limit of current peatland distribution and have experienced rapidly rising temperatures of 0.81 °C per decade since 1958. We examine the ecology of peatland testate amoebae in surface vegetation samples from permafrost peatlands on Spitsbergen, the largest island of the Svalbard archipelago, and develop new transfer functions to reconstruct water-table depth (WTD) and pH that can be applied to understand past peatland ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change. These transfer functions are the first of their kind for peatlands in Svalbard and the northernmost developed to date. Multivariate statistical analysis shows that WTD and pore water pH are the dominant controls on testate amoeba species distribution. This finding is consistent with results from peatlands in lower latitudes with regard to WTD and supports work showing that when samples are taken across a long enough trophic gradient, peatland trophic status is an important control on the distribution of testate amoebae. No differences were found between transfer functions including and excluding the taxa with weak idiosomic tests (WISTs) that are most susceptible to decay. The final models for application to fossil samples therefore excluded these taxa. The WTD transfer function demonstrates the best performance (R2LOO = 0.719, RMSEPLOO = 3.2 cm), but the pH transfer function also performs well (R2LOO = 0.690, RMSEPLOO = 0.320). The transfer functions were applied to a core from western Spitsbergen and suggest drying conditions ~1750 CE, followed by a trend of recent wetting and increasing pH from ~1920 CE. These new transfer functions allow the reconstruction of past peatland WTD and pH in Svalbard, thereby enabling a greater understanding of long-term ecohydrological dynamics in these rapidly changing ecosystems.

Sediments from an oxbow lake located in the Prosna River valley (Poland) were analysed to investigate the developmental history of the wetland ecosystem and any response to abrupt climatic changes. High resolution plant macrofossil analysis and radiocarbon dating were undertaken on two cores, with lower resolution geochemical analysis conducted on one of these cores. We provide evidence of a palaeolake with a late Glacial origin (older than 12,500 years). Abundant fossil presence of macrophytes (e.g. multiple Potamogeton species) in the studied palaeomeander may indicate that the north–south orientation of the Prosna valley made it an important route for the spreading of aquatic plants during the late Glacial. Chara sp., Batrachium sp. and Potamogeton spp. were the pioneer plants that colonised cold water with a high Ca2+ content. Early Holocene warming trigged a decrease in water level at the oxbow lake and facilitated the expansion of thermophilous water plants, for example, Ceratophyllum demersum, Typha sp. and Lemna trisulca, which usually occur in shallow water. A decreasing water level resulted in the gradual isolation of the study site from the influence of groundwater, leading to acidification of the habitat and the development of a Sphagnum population, with S. contortum and S. teres as dominant species. The presence of S. contortum (the oldest occurrence in the European lowlands) and S. teres during the early Holocene may indicate that river valleys and the peatlands that developed in this region acted as an important habitats (and possibly refugia) for some minerotrophic Sphagnum species.

Permafrost peatlands are found in high-latitude regions and store globally-important amounts of soil organic carbon. These regions are warming at over twice the global average rate, causing permafrost thaw, and exposing previously inert carbon to decomposition and emission to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases. However, it is unclear how peatland hydrological behaviour, vegetation structure and carbon balance, and the linkages between them, will respond to permafrost thaw in a warming climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands follow divergent ecohydrological trajectories in response to recent climate change within the same rapidly warming region (northern Sweden). Whether a site becomes wetter or drier depends on local factors and the autogenic response of individual peatlands. We find that bryophyte-dominated vegetation demonstrates resistance, and in some cases resilience, to climatic and hydrological shifts. Drying at four sites is clearly associated with reduced carbon sequestration, while no clear relationship at wetting sites is observed. We highlight the complex dynamics of permafrost peatlands and warn against an overly-simple approach when considering their ecohydrological trajectories and role as C sinks under a warming climate.

Climate warming and human impacts are thought to be causing peatlands to dry,\ud potentially converting them from sinks to sources of carbon. However, it is unclear\ud whether the hydrological status of peatlands has moved beyond their natural envelope.\ud Here we show that European peatlands have undergone substantial, widespread drying\ud during the last ~300 years. We analyse testate amoeba-derived hydrological\ud reconstructions from 31 peatlands across Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia and continental\ud Europe to examine changes in peatland surface wetness during the last 2000 years.\ud 60% of our study sites were drier during the period CE 1800-2000 than they have been\ud for the last 600 years; 40% of sites were drier than they have been for 1000 years; and\ud 24% of sites were drier than they have been for 2000 years. This marked recent\ud transition in the hydrology of European peatlands is concurrent with compound\ud pressures including climatic drying, warming and direct human impacts on peatlands,\ud although these factors vary between regions and individual sites. Our results suggest\ud that the wetness of many European peatlands may now be moving away from natural\ud baselines. Our findings highlight the need for effective management and restoration of\ud European peatlands.

The response of Arctic wetland ecosystems and their associated organic carbon stores to future warming is uncertain. For the first time in the Canadian High Arctic I use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to test how organic-rich wetlands have responded to pronounced warming since the mid-twentieth century. This approach enables ecological analysis on a timescale beyond that of contemporary studies. An ice-wedge polygon mire was a dual-state system with the raised centre mound showing no response to recent warming, but ~AD 2000 the surrounding trough exhibited a shift to wetter conditions and a transition from sedge and herb-dominated to brown moss-dominated vegetation. The accumulation of this vegetation layer may have the effect of insulating ice-wedges and provide a negative ecological feedback to permafrost degradation, mitigating potential carbon losses. In a valley fen, an increase in growing degree days above 0°C (GDD0) since ~AD 1950 is linked to greater inundation from increased snow and ice melt early in the growing season, coupled with increased drying towards the end of the growing season from elevated evapotranspiration. This may have initiated a pathway to wetland desiccation – although wetland persistence is likely to be determined by future Arctic precipitation patterns. In a coastal fen, greater GDD0 combined with isostatic uplift induced shrubification ~AD 1950 and led to rapid carbon accumulation. After this, increasing bird grazing pressures from ~AD 2000 may have affected vegetation and carbon accumulation. My results illustrate a variety of pathways for change in High Arctic wetlands in response to rapid warming. The results of this study suggest that predictions of the future extent and carbon accumulation rates of northern peatlands should consider the marked, yet complex response of High Arctic wetlands to warming alongside external non-climatic factors such as increased bird grazing pressures.