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Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

Studies of the phenological responses of animals to climate change typically emphasize the initiation of breeding although climatic effects on the cessation and length of the breeding period may be as or more influential of fitness. We quantified links between climate, the cessation and length of the breeding period, and individual survival and reproduction using a 34-year study of a resident song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population subject to dramatic variation in climate. We show that the cessation and length of the breeding period varied strongly across years, and predicted female annual fecundity but not survival. Breeding period length was more influential of fecundity than initiation or cessation of breeding alone. Warmer annual temperature and drier winters and summers predicted an earlier cessation of breeding. Population density, the date breeding was initiated, a female's history of breeding success, and the number of breeding attempts initiated previously also predicted the cessation of breeding annually, indicating that climatic, population, and individual factors may interact to affect breeding phenology. Linking climate projections to our model results suggests that females will both initiate and cease breeding earlier in the future; this will have opposite effects on individual reproductive rate because breeding earlier is expected to increase fecundity, whereas ceasing breeding earlier should reduce it. Identifying factors affecting the cessation and length of the breeding period in multiparous species may be essential to predicting individual fitness and population demography. Given a rich history of studies on the initiation of breeding in free-living species, re-visiting those data to estimate climatic effects on the cessation and length of breeding should improve our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on multiparous species., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Many variables in biological research—from body size to life-history timing to environmental characteristics—are measured continuously (e.g. body mass in kilograms) but analysed as categories (e.g. large versus small), which can lower statistical power and change interpretation. We conducted a mini-review of 72 recent publications in six popular ecology, evolution and behaviour journals to quantify the prevalence of categorization. We then summarized commonly categorized metrics and simulated a dataset to demonstrate the drawbacks of categorization using common variables and realistic examples. We show that categorizing continuous variables is common (31% of publications reviewed). We also underscore that predictor variables can and should be collected and analysed continuously. Finally, we provide recommendations on how to keep variables continuous throughout the entire scientific process. Together, these pieces comprise an actionable guide to increasing statistical power and facilitating large synthesis studies by simply leaving continuous variables alone. Overcoming the pitfalls of categorizing continuous variables will allow ecologists, ethologists and evolutionary biologists to continue making trustworthy conclusions about natural processes, along with predictions about their responses to climate change and other environmental contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declines in body size can be an advantageous physiological response to warming temperatures, or a result of physiological and nutritional stress. Either way, studies often assume that these climate‐induced trait changes have important implications for fitness and demography. We leveraged almost three decades of capture‐mark‐recapture data of 51 bird species in Panama to examine if body size has changed through time, how sensitive body size is to changes in weather, and if body size impacts population demography. We evaluated two metrics of body size, structural size (wing length), and body condition (residual body mass). Over the study, wing length changed in varying directions for 88% of species (23 decrease, 22 increase), but the effects were weak, and change was only significant for two species. Conversely, body condition declined for 88% of species (45), effects were stronger, and that change was significant for 22% of species (11). This suggests that nutritional stress is likely the cause of changes in body size, not an adaptive response to warming. Precipitation metrics impacted body condition across three of our four feeding guilds, while wing length was only impacted by weather metrics for two guilds. This suggests that body condition is more sensitive to change in weather metrics compared to wing length. Lastly, we found that the impact of changes in body size on survival and recruitment was variable across species, but these relationships were in the opposite direction, ultimately resulting in no change in population growth for all but one species. Thus, while different stages (adult survival and recruitment) of populations may be impacted by body size, populations appear to be buffered from changes. The lack of an effect on population growth rate suggests that populations may be more resilient to changes in body size, with implications for population persistence under expected climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual animal fitness can be strongly influenced by the ability to recognize habitat features which may be beneficial. Many studies focus on the effects of habitat on annual reproductive rate, even though adult survival is typically a greater influence on fitness and population growth in vertebrate species with intermediate to long lifespans. Understanding the effects of preferred habitat on individuals over the annual cycle is therefore necessary to predict its influences on individual fitness. This is particularly true in species that are resident and territorial year‐round in the temperate zone, which may face potential trade‐offs between habitat that maximizes reproduction and that which maximizes non‐breeding season (‘over‐winter’) survival. We used a 37‐year study of Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia residing territorially year‐round on a small island to examine what habitat features influenced adult over‐winter survival, how site‐specific variation in adult survival vs. annual reproductive rate influenced long‐term habitat preference, and if preferred sites on average conferred higher individual fitness. Habitat features such as area of shrub cover and exposure to intertidal coastline predicted adult over‐winter survival independent of individual age or sex, population size, or winter weather. Long‐term habitat preference (measured as occupation rate) was better predicted by site‐specific annual reproductive rate than by expected over‐winter survival, but preferred sites maximized fitness on average over the entire annual cycle,. Although adult over‐winter survival had a greater influence on population growth (λ) than did reproductive rate, the influence of reproductive rate on λ increased in preferred sites because site‐specific variation in reproductive rate was higher than variation in expected over‐winter survival. Because preferred habitats tended to have higher mean site‐specific reproductive and adult survival rates, territorial birds in this population do not appear to experience seasonal trade‐offs in preferred habitat but are predicted to incur substantial fitness costs of settling in less‐preferred sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]