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The fate of soil organic carbon (SOC) in boreal forests is dependent on the integrative ecosystem response to climate change. For example, boreal forest productivity is often nitrogen (N) limited, and climate warming can enhance N cycling and primary productivity. However, the net effect of this feedback on the SOC reservoir and its longevity with climate change remains unclear. Here, we (1) applied lignin biomarkers to assess the diagenetic alteration of SOC in boreal forest organic soils across a climate gradient; and (2) investigated the coupling of soil C and N cycling and the influence of enhanced N availability on soil C stocks along this boreal forest climate transect. The lignin diagenetic state remained constant with climate warming, indicating a balance between the input and removal of lignin in these mesic boreal forests. When combined with previous knowledge of these forest ecosystems, including the diagenetic state of soil organic nitrogen and direct measures of carbon fluxes and stocks, the results indicate a coupled increase in carbon and nitrogen cycling with climate warming that supports forest productivity and maintains SOC stocks. Our observations are consistent with several lines of evidence in other biomes not limited by water availability, although the mechanisms for the maintenance of SOC stocks during climate warming appear to be ecosystem dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The boreal forest is one of the largest biomes on earth, supporting thousands of species. The global climate fluctuations in the Quaternary, especially the ice ages, had a significant influence on the distribution of boreal forest, as well as the divergence and evolution of species inhabiting this biome. To understand the possible effects of on-going and future climate change it would be useful to reconstruct past population size changes and relate such to climatic events in the past. We sequenced the genomes of 32 individuals from two forest inhabiting bird species, Hazel Grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) and Chinese Grouse (T. sewerzowi) and three representatives of two outgroup species from Europe and China. Results: We estimated the divergence time of Chinese Grouse and Hazel Grouse to 1.76 (0.46-3.37) MYA. The demographic history of different populations in these two sibling species was reconstructed, and showed that peaks and bottlenecks of effective population size occurred at different times for the two species. The northern Qilian population of Chinese Grouse became separated from the rest of the species residing in the south approximately 250,000 years ago and have since then showed consistently lower effective population size than the southern population. The Chinese Hazel Grouse population had a higher effective population size at the peak of the Last Glacial Period (approx. 300,000 years ago) than the European population. Both species have decreased recently and now have low effective population sizes. Conclusions: Combined with the uplift history and reconstructed climate change during the Quaternary, our results support that cold-adapted grouse species diverged in response to changes in the distribution of palaeo-boreal forest and the formation of the Loess Plateau. The combined effects of climate change and an increased human pressure impose major threats to the survival and conservation of both species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Application of paleoenvironmental approaches provides insight into the magnitude and timing of responses to climate warming in aquatic-ecosystems of northern Canada. We examined subfossil biological (Diptera:Chironomidae) and geochemical indicators (organic carbon and elemental nitrogen and stable isotope composition) in a sediment core from Buckland Lake, northern Manitoba, to assess the influence of recent warming (1981–2011) in the central subarctic region of Canada. The earlier part of the paleolimnological record (1830–1980) was characterized by relatively low chironomid diversity (N2 ~ 6), consisting primarily of profundal taxa (Orthocladius consobrinus and Chironomus), low organic matter content of sediments (< 12%), low C:N ratios (< 9), and high δ15N values (> 3‰), indicative of a cold-water environment with low nitrogen demand. Between 1910 and 1980, there was a decline in profundal taxa, with small gradual increases in littoral taxa, such as Cladotanytarsus mancus-group. Post-1980 sediment core intervals had distinct geochemistry, with declines in δ13Corg from − 27.5‰ to almost − 29‰, consistent with warming, increased terrestrial influence, and increased snowfall and runoff. We found substantial inferred warming (+ 1–2 °C), with several chironomid-inferred temperatures nearly 3 °C warmer than typical pre-1980 inferences. Concurrently, several warm-water-adapted littoral chironomid taxa (Cladopelma, Cryptochironomus, Polypedilum) recorded increases. The post-1990 records reflected continued increases in warm-water taxa, changes in the benthic:pelagic trophic structure, and reversal of previous trends in the δ13Corg, %Organic Carbon, and δ15N profiles, suggestive of increased aquatic productivity. The meteorological station at Gillam, Manitoba, also recorded warming (1.5 °C) and a reduction in snowfall during that time period. A reduction in spring recharge may have increased littoral habitat associated with lake-level drawdown. The climate-driven shift observed ~ 1980 is in generally good agreement with other regional analyses, which show regime shifts occurred ~ 1995. The earlier lake response (~ 1980), however, demonstrates the role of increased catchment-mediated influences on northern boreal lake productivity that may only appear in records with sufficiently high resolution and multiple paleolimnological indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest is a major contributor to the global climate system, therefore, reducing uncertainties in how the forest will respond to a changing climate is critical. One source of uncertainty is the timing and drivers of the spring transition. Remote sensing can provide important information on this transition, but persistent foliage greenness, seasonal snow cover, and a high prevalence of mixed forest stands (both deciduous and evergreen species) complicate interpretation of these signals. We collected tower‐based remotely sensed data (reflectance‐based vegetation indices and Solar‐Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence [SIF]), stem radius measurements, gross primary productivity, and environmental conditions in a boreal mixed forest stand. Evaluation of this data set shows a two‐phased spring transition. The first phase is the reactivation of photosynthesis and transpiration in evergreens, marked by an increase in relative SIF, and is triggered by thawed stems, warm air temperatures, and increased available soil moisture. The second phase is a reduction in bulk photoprotective pigments in evergreens, marked by an increase in the Chlorophyll‐Carotenoid Index. Deciduous leaf‐out occurs during this phase, marked by an increase in all remotely sensed metrics. The second phase is controlled by soil thaw. Our results demonstrate that remote sensing metrics can be used to detect specific physiological changes in boreal tree species during the spring transition. The two‐phased transition explains inconsistencies in remote sensing estimates of the timing and drivers of spring recovery. Our results imply that satellite‐based observations will improve by using a combination of vegetation indices and SIF, along with species distribution information. Plain Language Summary: The boreal forest is one of the most sensitive regions on the planet to climate change, yet its sensitivity remains poorly understood. In particular, the timing and drivers of the spring transition, as the forest changes from a winter adapted state to a summer adapted state, carry significant uncertainties. Remote sensing metrics can be used to characterize the spring transition, but their interpretation is complicated by persistent greenness, frequent snow cover, and a high prevalence of forests containing both deciduous and evergreen species. We collected tower‐based remotely sensed metrics, stem radius, and carbon uptake measurements and show that the spring transition occurs in two distinct phases. The first phase is a reactivation of photosynthesis in evergreens and is triggered by thawed stems, warm air temperature, and moist soil. The second phase is a change in evergreen photoprotective pigment levels and the leaf‐out of deciduous species. It is triggered by soil thaw. Both phases were detected with different remote sensing metrics that depended on species type. Our results illustrate how satellite measurements could be improved to capture the spring transition over diverse landscapes and what environmental factors control the spring transition. Key Points: Spring physiological changes are examined using tower remote sensing data in a boreal mixed forestEvergreens reactivate in two phases. The second phase is synchronous with deciduous leaf‐outTransition phases are controlled by air temperature, available soil water content, and soil thaw [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used bioproxies from paleosoils buried within two aeolian dunes to test hypotheses concerning the origin of dry sandy boreal forests in Canada. These forests are dominated today by Pinus banksiana Lamb. One hypothesis is that too frequent Holocene stand-replacing fires would have transformed the original vegetation through extirpation of susceptible species to fire in water stress habitat. Alternatively, the ecosystem would have not changed since the dunes stabilized enough to support forest establishment. The vegetation composition and richness were determined by identification of charcoal and macroremains and radiocarbon dating for the chronology. Both sites revealed a similar history covering 6400 years. Half of the charcoal layers were less than 2500 years old in both sites, indicating that they had been subjected to the same fire history. Data indicated a stable plant composition and richness, although the percentage of Pinus decreased slightly over 4000 years (decreasing rate 1% per century). The fungus Cenococcum geophilum was consistently present, with a stochastic abundance. The vegetation grew under natural fire conditions and soil dryness since 6000 years. The ecosystem was probably not stressed by late-Holocene fires or climate changes, as the multi-millennial steady state reveals a resistant and resilient ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change is expected to influence boreal bird communities significantly, notably through changes in forest habitat (composition and age structure), in the coming decades. How these changes will accumulate and interact with anthropogenic disturbances remains an open question for most species. Location: Northeastern Alberta, Canada. Methods: We used the LANDIS‐II forest landscape model to project changes in forest landscapes, and associated bird populations (72 passerine species), according to three climatic scenarios (baseline, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three forest harvesting scenarios of differing intensity. Results: Both forest harvesting and climate‐related drivers were projected to have large impacts on bird communities in this region. As a result of climate‐induced increases in fire activity as well as decreased conifer productivity, our simulations projected that an important proportion of Alberta's boreal forests would transition to treeless habitat (i.e. grass‐ or shrub‐dominated vegetation) while many conifer‐dominated stands would likely be replaced by broadleaf tree cover. Consequently, the abundance of bird species associated with open and deciduous habitats were projected to increase. With a strong anthropogenic climate‐forcing scenario (RCP 8.5), sharp declines in abundance of coniferous trees were also projected, particularly in mature and old forest stands, triggering major declines for bird species associated with coniferous and mixedwood forest types. Main conclusions: As the most comprehensive simulation of climate change and harvesting impacts on avian habitats in the North American boreal region to date, our study stresses the importance of considering key habitat characteristics like forest age structure and composition through forest landscape modelling and identifies 18 bird species particularly sensitive to climate change. Our simulations suggest that a change in forest management practices could play an important role in the conservation of boreal bird species vulnerable to climate change. The intensive forest harvesting simulated accelerated declines in bird abundance compared to a "no harvesting" scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern boreal peatlands are important ecosystems in modulating global biogeochemical cycles, yet their biological communities and related carbon dynamics are highly sensitive to changes in climate. Despite this, the strength and recent direction of these feedbacks are still unclear. The response of boreal peatlands to climate warming has received relatively little attention compared with other northern peatland types, despite forming a large northern hemisphere‐wide ecosystem. Here, we studied the response of two ombrotrophic boreal peatlands to climate variability over the last c. 200 years for which local meteorological data are available. We used remains from plants and testate amoebae to study historical changes in peatland biological communities. These data were supplemented by peat property (bulk density, carbon and nitrogen content), 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs analyses and were used to infer changes in peatland hydrology and carbon dynamics. In total, six peat cores, three per study site, were studied that represent different microhabitats: low hummock (LH), high lawn and low lawn. The data show a consistent drying trend over recent centuries, represented mainly as a change from wet habitat Sphagnum spp. to dry habitat S. fuscum. Summer temperature and precipitation appeared to be important drivers shaping peatland community and surface moisture conditions. Data from the driest microhabitat studied, LH, revealed a clear and strong negative linear correlation (R2 =.5031; p <.001) between carbon accumulation rate and peat surface moisture conditions: under dry conditions, less carbon was accumulated. This suggests that at the dry end of the moisture gradient, availability of water regulates carbon accumulation. It can be further linked to the decreased abundance of mixotrophic testate amoebae under drier conditions (R2 =.4207; p <.001). Our study implies that if effective precipitation decreases in the future, the carbon uptake capacity of boreal bogs may be threatened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole‐nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well‐understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N‐mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate‐sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here, we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High‐productivity, low‐vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 Tg CO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 yr of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above‐ and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding drivers of variation and trends in biodiversity change is a general scientific challenge, but also crucial for conservation and management. Previous research shows that patterns of increase and decrease are not always consistent at different spatial scales, calling for approaches combining the latter. We here explore the idea that functional traits of species may help explaining divergent population trends.Complementing a previous community level study, we here analyse data about breeding waterbirds on 58 wetlands in boreal Fennoscandia, covering gradients in latitude as well as trophic status. We used linear mixed models to address how change in local abundance over 25 years in 25 waterbird species are associated with life history traits, diet, distribution, breeding phenology, and habitat affinity.Mean abundance increased in 10 species from 1990/1991 to 2016, whereas it decreased in 15 species. Local population increases were associated with species that are early breeders and have small clutches, an affinity for luxurious wetlands, an herbivorous diet, and a wide breeding range rather than a southern distribution. Local decreases, by contrast, were associated with species having large clutches and invertivorous diet, as well as being late breeders and less confined to luxurious wetlands. The three species occurring on the highest number of wetlands all decreased in mean abundance.The fact that early breeders have done better than late fits well with previous research about adaptability to climate change, that is, response to earlier springs. We found only limited support for the idea that life history traits are good predictors of wetland level population change. Instead, diet turned out to be a strong candidate for an important driver of population change, as supported by a general decrease of invertivores and a concomitant increase of large herbivores.In a wider perspective, future research needs to address whether population growth of large‐bodied aquatic herbivores affects abundance of co‐occurring invertivorous species, and if so, if this is due to habitat alteration, or to interference or exploitative competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to "equivalent land capability," implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a climate change context, the sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in forests is key for achieving emission targets. It is thus critical to understand how large-scale disturbances are affecting the overall forest C stocks. C dynamics in North American boreal forest ecosystems are strongly affected by the defoliation and mortality that occurs during a spruce budworm (SBW) outbreak. We used forest inventory geospatial databases, monthly climate data, spatially explicit defoliation sequence data, and the TRIPLEX-Insect model to simulate C dynamics with and without SBW disturbances in stands with different vulnerability to the SBW in the boreal forest of Quebec. Our results showed that SBW defoliation and related mortality decreased the average aboveground biomass and belowground biomass by 5.96% and 6.94% by 2017, respectively. At the same time, 21,046 km2 of forest were converted from a C sink to a source. This study provides the first quantitative analysis of the effect of a SBW outbreak on carbon dynamics for three different boreal stand types (that is, fir, spruce, and mixed fir-spruce) at a regional scale. Our results suggested that younger fir forests lost less C than either fir-spruce or spruce forests during SBW attacks between 2007 and 2017 in Quebec. This highlights the importance of considering species composition when assessing vulnerability or resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐term monitoring is critical to determine the stability and sustainability of wildlife populations, and if change has occurred, why. We have followed population density changes in the small mammal community in the boreal forest of the southern Yukon for 46 years with density estimates by live trapping on 3–5 unmanipulated grids in spring and autumn. This community consists of 10 species and was responsible for 9% of the energy flow in the herbivore component of this ecosystem from 1986 to 1996, but this increased to 38% from 2003 to 2014. Small mammals, although small in size, are large in the transfer of energy from plants to predators and decomposers. Four species form the bulk of the biomass. There was a shift in the dominant species from the 1970s to the 2000s, with Myodes rutilus increasing in relative abundance by 22% and Peromyscus maniculatus decreasing by 22%. From 2007 to 2018, Myodes comprised 63% of the catch, Peromyscus 20%, and Microtus species 17%. Possible causes of these changes involve climate change, which is increasing primary production in this boreal forest, and an associated increase in the abundance of 3 rodent predators, marten (Martes americana), ermine (Mustela ermine) and coyotes (Canis latrans). Following and understanding these and potential future changes will require long‐term monitoring studies on a large scale to measure metapopulation dynamics. The small mammal community in northern Canada is being affected by climate change and cannot remain stable. Changes will be critically dependent on food–web interactions that are species‐specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Adirondack Park in New York State contains a unique and limited distribution of boreal ecosystem types, providing habitat for a number of birds at the southern edge of their range. Species are projected to shift poleward in a warming climate, and the limited boreal forest of the Adirondacks is expected to undergo significant change in response to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we expand upon a previous analysis to examine changes in occupancy patterns for eight species of boreal birds over a decade (2007–2016), and we assess the relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our analysis identifies patterns of declining occupancy for six of eight species, including some declines which appear to have become more pronounced since a prior analysis. Although non-climate drivers such as wetland area, connectivity, and human footprint continue to influence colonization and extinction rates, we find that for most species, occupancy patterns are best described by climate drivers. We modeled both average and annual temperature and precipitation characteristics and find stronger support for species' responses to average climate conditions, rather than interannual climate variability. In general, boreal birds appear most likely to colonize sites that have lower levels of precipitation and a high degree of connectivity, and they tend to persist in sites that are warmer in the breeding season and have low and less variable precipitation in the winter. It is likely that these responses reflect interactions between broader habitat conditions and temperature and precipitation variables. Indirect climate influences as mediated through altered species interactions may also be important in this context. Given climate change predictions for both temperature and precipitation, it is likely that habitat structural changes over the long term may alter these relationships in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixed‐wood boreal forests are characterized by a heterogeneous landscape dominated by coniferous or deciduous species depending on stand moisture and fire activity. Our study highlights the long‐term drivers of these differences between landscapes across mixed‐wood boreal forests to improve simulated vegetation dynamics under predicted climate changes. We investigate the effects of main climate trends and wildfire activities on the vegetation dynamics of two areas characterized by different stand moisture regimes during the last 9000 years. We performed paleofire and pollen analyses in the mixed‐wood boreal forest of north‐western Ontario, derived from lacustrine sediment deposits, to reconstruct historical vegetation dynamics, which encompassed both the Holocene climatic optimum (ca. 8000–4000 a bp) and the Neoglacial period (ca. 4000 a bp). The past warm and dry period (Holocene climatic optimum) promoted higher fire activity that resulted in an increase in coniferous species abundance in the xeric area. The predicted warmer climate and an increase in drought events should lead to a coniferization of the xeric areas affected by high fire activity while the mesic areas may retain a higher broadleaf abundance, as these areas are not prone to an increase in fire activity. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐term trends in ecosystem resource use efficiencies (RUEs) and their controlling factors are key pieces of information for understanding how an ecosystem responds to climate change. We used continuous eddy covariance and microclimate data over the period 1999–2017 from a 120‐year‐old black spruce stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada, to assess interannual variability, long‐term trends, and key controlling factors of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and the RUEs of carbon (CUE = net primary production [NPP]/GEP), light (LUE = GEP/absorbed photosynthetic radiation [APAR]), and water (WUE = GEP/evapotranspiration [E]). At this site, annual GEP has shown an increasing trend over the 19 years (p < 0.01), which may be attributed to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Interannual variability in GEP, aside from its increasing trend, was most strongly related to spring temperatures. Associated with the significant increase in annual GEP were relatively small changes in NPP, APAR, and E, so that annual CUE showed a decreasing trend and annual LUE and WUE showed increasing trends over the 19 years. The long‐term trends in the RUEs were related to the increasing CO2 concentration. Further analysis of detrended RUEs showed that their interannual variation was impacted most strongly by air temperature. Two‐factor linear models combining CO2 concentration and air temperature performed well (R2~0.60) in simulating annual RUEs. LUE and WUE were positively correlated both annually and seasonally, while LUE and CUE were mostly negatively correlated. Our results showed divergent long‐term trends among CUE, LUE, and WUE and highlighted the need to account for the combined effects of climatic controls and the 'CO2 fertilization effect' on long‐term variations in RUEs. Since most RUE‐based models rely primarily on one resource limitation, the observed patterns of relative change among the three RUEs may have important implications for RUE‐based modeling of C fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in‐depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N‐mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972–2013) of mallard Anas platyrhynchos breeding population survey, band‐recovery and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth, and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We then forecasted a decrease in mallard breeding population density in the south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area, indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population dynamics in the presence of global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change represents one of the most significant threats to human and wildlife communities on the planet. Populations at range margins or transitions between biomes can be particularly instructive for observing changes in biological communities that may be driven by climate change. Avian communities in lowland boreal habitats in the Adirondack Park, located at the North American boreal-temperate ecotone, have been the focus of long-term monitoring efforts since 2007. By documenting long-term changes in community structure and composition, such datasets provide an opportunity to understand how boreal species are responding differently to climate change, and which habitat characteristics may be best able to retain boreal avian communities. We examined three specific questions in order to address how well current biological communities in Adirondack boreal wetland habitats are being maintained in a changing climate: (1) how do trends in occupancy vary across species, and what guilds or characteristics are associated with increasing or decreasing occupancy? (2) how is avian community composition changing differently across sites, and (3) what distinguishes sites which are retaining boreal birds to a higher degree than other sites? Our analysis revealed that (1) boreal species appear to exhibit the largest changes in occupancy among our study locations as compared to the larger avian community, (2) dynamics of community change are not uniform across sites and habitat structure may play an important role in driving observed changes, and (3) the particular characteristics of large open peatlands may allow them to serve as refugia for boreal species in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

See also the Commentary on this article by Hättenschwiler et al., 223: 5–7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Previous analyses of remotely sensed data detected the multimodality of the tree‐cover distribution of the boreal forest, and identified areas with potentially alternative tree‐cover states. This paper aims at investigating the causes of multimodality and multistability of the boreal forest, their influence on the asymmetric tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America, and whether multistability could be associated with recent greening trends in leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Location: Eurasian and North American boreal forests. Time period: 2000–2010. Major taxa studied: Boreal forest plant functional types. Methods: We employ a conceptual model based on tree species competition to simulate the sensitivity of tree cover to stochastic disturbances and to changes in environmental factors. We include different plant functional types based on survival adaptations, and force the model with remotely sensed environmental data. We analyse the model as a dynamical system. We use metrics from statistics and information theory to compare the detection of alternative tree‐cover states and greening trends in LAI and NDVI. Results: We find that multimodality and multistability can emerge through competition between different plant functional types. Additionally, our model is able to reproduce the asymmetry in tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America. Moreover, changes in permafrost distribution can be associated with phenomenological bifurcation points of the model. Finally, we find that the detection of multistable areas is not affected by recent vegetation trends, whereas shifts between alternative states could have affected the greening trends. Main conclusions: Tree‐cover multistability in the boreal region can emerge through competition between species subject to periodic disturbances. Changes in permafrost thaw and distribution could be responsible for the asymmetry in tree species distribution between North America and Eurasia. Climate change and permafrost degradation could cause shifts in tree‐cover states and dominant species. Recent vegetation greening trends in multistable areas could have been affected by shifts between alternative states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Uncertainties in estimation of albedo-related radiative forcing cause ambiguity in evaluation of net climate effects of forests and forest management. Numerous studies have reported local relations between forest structure and albedo in the boreal zone. However, more research is needed to establish these relations for geographically extensive areas, and to examine seasonal courses of albedo to understand the effects of forest structure on mean annual shortwave energy balance. Remote sensing is a viable option for accomplishing these goals, but there are many challenges related to e.g. long periods of cloud cover and low solar elevations in high latitudes. We used the new MODIS Collection 6 (MCD43A3) daily albedo product, and analyzed MODIS albedo dependence on airborne LiDAR-based forest structure in 22 study sites in Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and Russia (57°–69° N, 12°–57° E). Wall-to-wall LiDAR data allowed us to take into account the effective spatial resolution of MODIS, which notably improved correlations between albedo and forest structure. Use of the best quality backup algorithm (magnitude inversion) together with main algorithm results in the MODIS albedo product did not reduce the correlations compared to using main algorithm only. We quantified the effects of landscape-level forest structure (forest height, canopy cover, fraction of young forest) and fraction of broadleaved deciduous forest on mean annual albedo. We showed that because the forest structure-albedo relations are the strongest in snow-covered periods, and because the snow-covered period is longest in the north, the effect of forest structure on mean annual albedo increases towards the north. On the other hand, the effect of broadleaved fraction did not show such latitudinal trend. Our results indicate that even within a single climatic zone the optimal forest management solution to mitigate climate change depends on geographic location. Highlights • Linking daily MODIS albedo and forest structure in a large geographic area • Airborne LiDAR used for deriving forest structure wall-to-wall for each MODIS pixel • Accounting for MODIS effective resolution strengthened albedo-structure relations • Albedo-forest structure relations stronger in snow covered than snow-free seasons • Effects of snow and forest structure on mean annual albedo increased towards north [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Ecological properties governed by threshold relationships can exhibit heightened sensitivity to climate, creating an inherent source of uncertainty when anticipating future change. We investigated the impact of threshold relationships on our ability to project ecological change outside the observational record (e.g., the 21st century), using the challenge of predicting late‐Holocene fire regimes in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems. Location : Boreal forest and tundra ecosystems of Alaska. Time period : 850–2100 CE. Major taxa studied : Not applicable. Methods: We informed a set of published statistical models, designed to predict the 30‐year probability of fire occurrence based on climatological normals, with downscaled global climate model data for 850–1850 CE. To evaluate model performance outside the observational record and the implications of threshold relationships, we compared modelled estimates with mean fire return intervals estimated from 29 published lake‐sediment palaeofire reconstructions. To place our results in the context of future change, we evaluate changes in the location of threshold to burning under 21st‐century climate projections. Results: Model–palaeodata comparisons highlight spatially varying accuracy across boreal forest and tundra regions, with variability strongly related to the summer temperature threshold to burning: sites closer to this threshold exhibited larger prediction errors than sites further away from this threshold. Modifying the modern (i.e., 1950–2009) fire–climate relationship also resulted in significant changes in modelled estimates. Under 21st‐century climate projections, increasing proportions of Alaskan tundra and boreal forest will approach and surpass the temperature threshold to burning, with > 50% exceeding this threshold by > 2 °C by 2070–2099. Main conclusions : Our results highlight a high sensitivity of statistical projections to changing threshold relationships and data uncertainty, implying that projections of future ecosystem change in threshold‐governed ecosystems will be accompanied by notable uncertainty. This work also suggests that ecological responses to climate change will exhibit high spatio‐temporal variability as different regions approach and surpass climatic thresholds over the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The timing of bud phenology is the result of internal and external cues. • Bud burst and bud set mirror the temperature of their provenance. • Ecotypes with later growth in spring could be sensitive to autumn frosts. • Ecotypes selection can aim to avoid early or late frosts, but not both. Abstract Forest managers use artificial regeneration to influence tree species composition and productivity. The selection of plant material could assume a leading role in forest planning, mainly when aiming to increase the adaptation of stands within a context of climate change. In this study, we investigated the timing of bud burst and bud set in five black spruce [ Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] ecotypes growing in a common garden and originating from a latitudinal range in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. Bud phenology was monitored weekly during the 2015, 2017 and 2018 growing seasons. On average, the bud burst process lasted 23 days, occurring 1.2 days later for each degree Celsius of increase in mean annual temperature at the provenance site. Bud set duration was 55 days and occurred 1.8 days later for each degree Celsius of increase in mean annual temperature at the provenance site. We demonstrated that both bud burst and bud set occurred earlier in individuals from colder sites, which resulted in similar lengths of the growing season among provenances. This clinal variation in the timings of growth resumption and cessation confirms the ecotypic differentiation of black spruce populations and reflects a long-lasting adaptation to the local temperatures in the sites of origin. The findings of this study demonstrate that ecotype selection in black spruce can aim to avoid damage from either early or late frosts, but not both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-frequency mowing has been proposed to be an effective strategy for the restoration and management of boreal fens after abandonment of traditional haymaking. This study investigates how mowing affects long-term vegetation change in both oceanic and continental boreal rich-fen vegetation. This will allow evaluation of the effectiveness of mowing as a management and restoration tool in this ecosystem in the face of climate change. At two nature reserves in Central Norway (Tågdalen, 63° 03’ N, 9° 05 E, oceanic climate and Sølendet, 62° 40’ N, 11° 50’ E, continental climate), we used permanent plot data from the two sites to compare plant species composition from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with that recorded in 2012–2015 in abandoned and mown fens. Changes in species composition and frequency were analysed by multivariate and univariate methods in relation to environmental variables and modelled climate and groundwater data. Mowing resulted in a decline in shrub and Molinia caerulea cover at the continental and oceanic sites respectively, and the total cover of specialist fen species had increased to a significantly greater extent in the mown plots than the unmown at the continental site. However, mowing did not have an effect on the cover of specialist bryophyte species, and some specialist species declined regardless of mowing treatment. Temperature sums had increased at both sites, but precipitation had not changed significantly. Mowing was shown to be the most important determinant of plant community composition at both sites, with local environmental conditions being of secondary importance. In conclusion, the abandonment of traditional management practices results in the loss of characteristic fen species. In order to encourage the restoration of typical rich-fen vegetation, particularly in oceanic areas, additional management measures, such as more intensive mowing, may be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The Canadian boreal forest provides valuable ecosystem services that are regionally and globally significant. Despite its importance, the future of the Canadian boreal forest is highly uncertain because potential impacts of future climate change on ecosystem processes and biomass stocks are poorly understood.Objectives: We investigate how anticipated climatic changes in coming decades could trigger abrupt changes in the biomass of dominant species in Canada's boreal forests.Methods: Using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which was parameterized for the dominant tree genera in Canada's boreal forests (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus) and driven by a large range of climate scenarios grouped by two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), we simulated forest composition, biomass, and the frequency of disturbance, including wildfire, from Manitoba to Newfoundland.Results: Results suggest that responses of this region to a warmer future climate will be very important, especially in southern boreal areas and under the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario. In these areas, reductions of total aboveground biomass incurred by fire and heat-induced tree mortality events are projected; the fertilizing effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 on forest productivity is unlikely to compensate for these losses. Decreases in total forest stocks would likely be associated with forest cover loss and a shift in composition in particular from needleleaf evergreen (softwood) to broadleaf deciduous (hardwood) taxa.Conclusion: The simulated future reduction in softwood biomass suggests that forest management strategies will have to be adapted to maintain a sustainable level of forest harvest and tree density that meets demands for wood products, while maintaining other ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differences in habitat associations or responses to environmental stressors among broadly co-distributed species can result in local variation in community composition. As a result, ongoing environmental change may drive shifts in community composition, especially at range peripheries. In the present study, we describe regional variation in avian community composition at the southern extent of the boreal zone. Boreal bird communities are disproportionally influenced by ongoing climate change and contain several declining species. Here we observe the habitat associations for 13 boreal bird species, and assess the link between species' habitat associations and community composition. We conducted standardized point counts at 20 boreal forest sites in northeastern United States and Canada, and quantified the vegetation structure and composition as well as the climate at each site. We found large variation in the habitat associations among co-distributed boreal birds, both in terms of the specific variables important for each species and in the breadth of habitat types occupied. These findings suggest that species within this community will vary in their responses to environmental change, potentially resulting in changes to the boreal avian community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We are bound to large uncertainties when considering impacts of climate change on forest productivity. Studies formally acknowledging and determining the relative importance of different sources of this uncertainty are still scarce, although the choice of the climate scenario, and e.g. the assumption of the CO 2 effects on tree water use can easily result in contradicting conclusions of future forest productivity. In a large scale, forest productivity is primarily driven by two large fluxes, gross primary production (GPP), which is the source for all carbon in forest ecosystems, and heterotrophic respiration. Here we show how uncertainty of GPP projections of Finnish boreal forests divides between input, mechanistic and parametric uncertainty. We used the simple semi-empirical stand GPP and water balance model PRELES with an ensemble of downscaled global circulation model (GCM) projections for the 21 st century under different emissions and forcing scenarios (both RCP and SRES). We also evaluated the sensitivity of assumptions of the relationships between atmospheric CO 2 concentration ( C a ), photosynthesis and water use of trees. Even mean changes in climate projections of different meteorological variables for Finland were so high that it is likely that the primary productivity of forests will increase by the end of the century. The scale of productivity change largely depends on the long-term C a fertilization effect on GPP and transpiration. However, GCM variability was the major source of uncertainty until 2060, after which emission scenario/pathway became the dominant factor. Large uncertainties with a wide range of projections can make it more difficult to draw ecologically meaningful conclusions especially on the local to regional scales, yet a thorough assessment of uncertainties is important for drawing robust conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract There is a consensus that the spring phenology of deciduous forests is advancing in response to global warming. Since the late 1990s, however, this tendency of spring phenology advancement has been weakened in over 60% of boreal forests, particularly in Siberia (−0.58 day yr−1 for 1982–1997 vs. −0.17 day yr−1 for 1982–2013) and northwestern North America (NWNA; −0.42 day yr−1 for 1982–1997 vs. 0.07 day yr−1 for 1982–2013). This study investigated the major factor in the weakening trends in the advancement of the start of the growing season (SOS) based on the satellite-observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in two regions by quantifying the effects of four climatic fields—winter duration (WD; the number of freezing days), pre-season temperature (PT; accumulated temperature from late winter to early spring), green-up temperature (GT; accumulated temperature around the green-up date), and pre-season precipitation (PR; accumulated precipitation before the green-up date)—on changes in the spring green-up trend. The GT explained the majority of the slowdown in the SOS trends in recent decades. In Siberia, the GT increases contributed to the advancement of the SOS during the 1980s and 1990s; however, the GT increase reduced to less than half of these periods resulting in a slowdown of the SOS advancing trend since the early 2000s. In NWNA, GT increases and WD shortening drove the SOS advancement until the late 1990s; however, both effects have been diminished to near zero to result in no further SOS advancements. This study demonstrates that the recent slowdown of the SOS advancing trends over Siberia and NWNA was largely attributed to the weakening of the warming trends, rather than the sensitivity changes of spring phenology to climate variables. This study suggests that the natural climate variability strongly affects the decadal variations in the boreal forest spring phenology. Highlights • Satellite data reveals a shift in large-scale spring phenology trends. • The advancing of spring phenology weakened in boreal forests after the late 1990s. • We assessed the influence of climate variables on the slowdown of phenology trends. • This slowdown is attributed to weakened warming rather than changes in sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The accumulation of soil carbon (C) is regulated by a complex interplay between abiotic and biotic factors. Our study aimed to identify the main drivers of soil C accumulation in the boreal forest of eastern North America. Ecosystem C pools were measured in 72 sites of fire origin that burned 2–314 years ago over a vast region with a range of ∆ mean annual temperature of 3°C and one of ∆ 500 mm total precipitation. We used a set of multivariate a priori causal hypotheses to test the influence of time since fire (TSF), climate, soil physico‐chemistry and bryophyte dominance on forest soil organic C accumulation. Integrating the direct and indirect effects among abiotic and biotic variables explained as much as 50% of the full model variability. The main direct drivers of soil C stocks were: TSF >bryophyte dominance of the FH layer and metal oxide content >pH of the mineral soil. Only climate parameters related to water availability contributed significantly to explaining soil C stock variation. Importantly, climate was found to affect FH layer and mineral soil C stocks indirectly through its effects on bryophyte dominance and organo‐metal complexation, respectively. Soil texture had no influence on soil C stocks. Soil C stocks increased both in the FH layer and mineral soil with TSF and this effect was linked to a decrease in pH with TSF in mineral soil. TSF thus appears to be an important factor of soil development and of C sequestration in mineral soil through its influence on soil chemistry. Overall, this work highlights that integrating the complex interplay between the main drivers of soil C stocks into mechanistic models of C dynamics could improve our ability to assess C stocks and better anticipate the response of the boreal forest to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest and steppe communities in the Altai region of Central Asia are threatened by changing climate and anthropogenic pressure. Specifically, increasing drought and grazing pressure may cause collapses of moisture-demanding plant communities, particularly forests. Knowledge about past vegetation and fire responses to climate and land use changes may help anticipating future ecosystem risks, given that it has the potential to disclose mechanisms and processes that govern ecosystem vulnerability. We present a unique paleoecological record from the high-alpine Tsambagarav glacier in the Mongolian Altai that provides novel large-scale information on vegetation, fire and pollution with an exceptional temporal resolution and precision. Our palynological record identifies several late-Holocene boreal forest expansions, contractions and subsequent recoveries. Maximum forest expansions occurred at 3000–2800 BC, 2400–2100 BC, and 1900–1800 BC. After 1800 BC mixed boreal forest communities irrecoverably declined. Fires reached a maximum at 1600 BC, 200 years after the final forest collapse. Our multiproxy data suggest that burning peaked in response to dead biomass accumulation resulting from forest diebacks. Vegetation and fire regimes partly decoupled from climate after 1700 AD, when atmospheric industrial pollution began, and land use intensified. We conclude that moisture availability was more important than temperature for past vegetation dynamics, in particular for forest loss and steppe expansion. The past Mongolian Altai evidence implies that in the future forests of the Russian Altai may collapse in response to reduced moisture availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth of high-latitude temperature-limited boreal forest ecosystems is projected to become more constrained by soil water availability with continued warming. The purpose of this study was to document ongoing shifts in tree growth sensitivity to the evolving local climate in unmanaged black spruce (Picea mariana (Miller) B.S.P.) forests of eastern boreal North America (49°N-52°N, 58°W-82°W) using a comparative study of field and modeled data. We investigated growth relationships to climate (gridded monthly data) from observed (50 site tree-ring width chronologies) and simulated growth data (stand-level forest growth model) over 1908-2013. No clear strengthening of moisture control over tree growth in recent decades was detected. Despite climate warming, photosynthesis (main driver of the forest growth model) and xylem production (main driver of radial growth) have remained temperature-limited. Analyses revealed, however, a weakening of the influence of growing season temperature on growth during the mid- to late twentieth century in the observed data, particularly in high-latitude (> 51.5°N) mountainous sites. This shift was absent from simulated data, which resulted in clear model-data desynchronization. Thorough investigations revealed that desynchronization was mostly linked to the quality of climate data, with precipitation data being of particular concern. The scarce network of weather stations over eastern boreal North America (> 51.5°N) affects the accuracy of estimated local climate variability and critically limits our ability to detect climate change effects on high-latitude ecosystems, especially at high altitudinal sites. Climate estimates from remote sensing could help address some of these issues in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims The impact of global warming on belowground processes, especially on fine root production, is poorly understood in comparison with its aboveground counterpart. Methods Here, we compiled 227 measurements to assess the influence of temperature and precipitation on fine root biomass of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst) forest ecosystems in the Eurasia boreal region. Important Findings We found that fine root biomass decreased significantly with latitudes. There was a biomass increase of 0.63 Mg ha-1 and 0.32 Mg ha-1 for fine roots <2 and <1 mm in diameter, respectively, with 1°C increase of mean annual temperature. There was an increase of 0.5 and 0.1 Mg ha-1 per 100 mm year-1 precipitation for the two size classes of fine roots. If the adaption of root production can match the pace of global warming and water is not a limiting factor for plant growth, fine root biomass would be expected to increase by 40-140% in response to the predicted increase in temperature (3-10°C) over the next century. Our analyses highlighted the strongly positive influences of temperature and precipitation on belowground function, suggesting that predicted future climate change could substantially enhance belowground biomass in the boreal region where the greatest warming is anticipated. This potential increase of belowground biomass, coupled with aboveground biomass, may provide a better understanding of climate-ecosystem feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, scattered disjunct stands of two temperate species, yellow birch and white pine, are present north of their continuous distributional range in southern Quebec (Canada) at topographical locations that offer protection from severe fires. This study tested whether these species had populations more numerous and widespread millennia ago when the climate was presumably warmer. Specifically, this research involved the analyses of pollen, plant macrofossils, and charcoal fragments of two sites within the western part of Quebec's balsam fir - paper birch bioclimatic domain: a forest humus deposit from a yellow birch stand (local scale), and a peatland (regional scale). Fossil data suggest that white pine was more abundant regionally between 7500 and 5000 cal. BP, before coming rare under subsequent cooler conditions. Likewise, yellow birch was more abundant regionally between 7700 and 1500 cal BP. Its subsequent decline and the local disappearance of white pine by ∼200 cal. BP may both be explained by the severe fires that occurred in recent centuries, as well as the rarity of suitable habitats for these species. The sustained presence of temperate species in mixed boreal forests is the result of the combined action of climate, natural disturbances and habitat characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mosses contribute an average of 20 % of upland boreal forest net primary productivity and are frequently observed to degrade slowly compared to vascular plants. If this is caused primarily by the chemically complexity of their tissues, moss decomposition could exhibit high temperature sensitivity (measured as Q10) due to high activation energy, which would imply soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks derived from moss remains are especially vulnerable to decomposition with warming. Alternatively, the physical structure of the moss cell wall biochemical matrix could inhibit decomposition, resulting in low decay rates and low temperature sensitivity. We tested these hypotheses by incubating mosses collected from two boreal forests in Newfoundland, Canada, for 959 days at 5 and 18 °C, while monitoring changes in the moss tissue composition using total hydrolysable amino acid (THAA) analysis and 13C NMR spectroscopy. Less than 40 % of C was respired in all incubations, revealing a large pool of apparently recalcitrant C. The decay rate of the labile fraction increased in the warmer treatment, but the total amount of C loss increased only slightly, resulting in low Q10 values (1.23-1.33) compared to L horizon soils collected from the same forests. NMR spectra were dominated by O-alkyl C throughout the experiment, indicating the persistence of potentially labile C. Accumulation of hydroxyproline (derived primarily from plant cell wall proteins) and aromatic C indicates selective preservation of biochemicals associated with the moss cell wall. This was supported by scanning electron microscope (SEM) images of the moss tissues, which revealed few changes in the physical structure of the cell wall after incubation. This suggests the moss cell wall matrix protected labile C from microbial decomposition, accounting for the low temperature sensitivity of moss decomposition despite low decay rates. Climate drivers of moss biomass and productivity, therefore, represent a potentially important regulator of boreal forest SOC responses to climate change that needs to be assessed to improve our understanding of carbon-climate feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of near ground air temperature to changing precipitation regimes has received extensive attentions in climate change studies. In semi-arid and arid regions, the mean annual temperature correlates negatively with precipitation. However, it remains unclear to what extent one unit change of precipitation can trigger temperature change (i.e., the temperature sensitivity to precipitation). Taking a semi-arid region in Northwest China as a study area, we quantitatively investigated the temperature sensitivity to precipitation change. Further analysis shows that the temperature sensitivity correlates well with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), indicating that vegetation plays an important role in controlling the long-term temperature sensitivity to precipitation change. Specifically, different land covers show significant differences in temperature sensitivity, with bare soil generally having a higher sensitivity while more densely vegetated areas such as forest and grassland having lower sensitivity values. This implies that vegetation contributes to reducing the temperature sensitivity to precipitation change through the land surface-atmosphere interaction in semi-arid and arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using tree data from permanent sample plots and climate data from the ClimateWNA model, mixed-effects height to live crown (HTC) models were developed for three boreal tree species in Alberta, Canada: trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). Three model forms, the Wykoff model, a logistic model and an exponential model, were evaluated for each species. Tree height was the most significant predictor of HTC and was used in all models. In addition, we investigated the effects of competition and climatic variables on HTC modelling. Height-diameter ratio and either total stand basal area or basal area of coniferous trees were used as competition measures in the models. Different climate variables were evaluated, and spring degree-days below 0 °C, mean annual precipitation and summer heat-moisture index were incorporated into the aspen, lodgepole pine and white spruce models, respectively. Site index was only significant in lodgepole pine models. Residual variances were modelled as functions of tree height to account for heteroscedasticity still present in the mixed-effects models after the inclusion of random parameters. Based on model fitting and validation results as well as biological realism, the mixed-effects Wykoff models were the best for aspen and white spruce, and the mixed-effects logistic model was the best for lodgepole pine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal ecoregion supports about one-third of the world’s forest. Over 90% of boreal forest streams are found in headwaters, where terrestrial-aquatic interfaces are dominated by organic matter (OM)-rich riparian zones (RZs). Because these transition zones are key features controlling catchment biogeochemistry, appropriate RZ conceptualizations are needed to sustainably manage surface water quality in the face of a changing climate and increased demands for forest biomass. Here we present a simple, yet comprehensive, conceptualization of RZ function based on hydrological connectivity, biogeochemical processes, and spatial heterogeneity. We consider four dimensions of hydrological connectivity: (1) laterally along hillslopes, (2) longitudinally along the stream, (3) vertically down the riparian profile, and (4) temporally through event-based and seasonal changes in hydrology. Of particular importance is the vertical dimension, characterized by a ‘Dominant Source Layer’ that has the highest contribution to solute and water fluxes to streams. In addition to serving as the primary source of OM to boreal streams, RZs shape water chemistry through two sets of OM-dependent biogeochemical processes: (1) transport and retention of OM-associated material and (2) redox-mediated transformations controlled by RZ water residence time and availability of labile OM. These processes can lead to both retention and release of pollutants. Variations in width, hydrological connectivity, and OM storage drive spatial heterogeneity in RZ biogeochemical function. This conceptualization provides a useful theoretical framework for environmental scientists and ecologically sustainable and economically effective forest management in the boreal region and elsewhere, where forest headwaters are dominated by low-gradient, OM-rich RZs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was −4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981–2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple‐ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid warming and changes in water availability at high latitudes alter resource abundance, tree competition, and disturbance regimes. While these changes are expected to disrupt the functioning of boreal forests, their ultimate implications for forest composition are uncertain. In particular, recent site‐level studies of the Alaskan boreal forest have reported both increases and decreases in productivity over the past few decades. Here, we test the idea that variations in Alaskan forest growth and mortality rates are contingent on species composition. Using forest inventory measurements and climate data from plots located throughout interior and south‐central Alaska, we show significant growth and mortality responses associated with competition, midsummer vapor pressure deficit, and increased growing season length. The governing climate and competition processes differed substantially across species. Surprisingly, the most dramatic climate response occurred in the drought tolerant angiosperm species, trembling aspen, and linked high midsummer vapor pressure deficits to decreased growth and increased insect‐related mortality. Given that species composition in the Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests is projected to shift toward early‐successional angiosperm species due to fire regime, these results underscore the potential for a reduction in boreal productivity stemming from increases in midsummer evaporative demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Insects, diseases, fire and drought and other disturbances associated with global climate change contribute to forest decline and mortality in many parts of the world. Forest decline and mortality related to drought or insect outbreaks have been observed in North American aspen forests. However, little research has been done to partition and estimate their relative contributions to growth declines. In this study, we combined tree‐ring width and basal area increment series from 40 trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) sites along a latitudinal gradient (from 52° to 58°N) in western Canada and attempted to investigate the effect of drought and insect outbreaks on growth decline, and simultaneously partition and quantify their relative contributions. Results indicated that the influence of drought on forest decline was stronger than insect outbreaks, although both had significant effects. Furthermore, the influence of drought and insect outbreaks showed spatiotemporal variability. In addition, our data suggest that insect outbreaks could be triggered by warmer early spring temperature instead of drought, implicating that potentially increased insect outbreaks are expected with continued warming springs, which may further exacerbate growth decline and death in North America aspen mixed forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across Canada's boreal forest, linear disturbances, including cutlines such as seismic lines and roads, crisscross the landscape to facilitate resource exploration and extraction; many of these linear disturbances cross peatland ecosystems. Changes in tree canopy cover and the compression of the peat by heavy equipment alter local thermal, hydrological, and ecological conditions, likely changing carbon exchange on the disturbance, and possibly in the adjacent peatland. We measured bulk density, water table, soil temperature, plant cover, and CO2 and CH4 flux along triplicate transects crossing a winter road through a wooded fen near Peace River, Alberta, Canada. Sample plots were located 1, 5, and 10 m from the road on both sides with an additional three plots on the road. Productivity of the overstory trees, when present, was also determined. The winter road had higher bulk density, shallower water table, higher graminoid cover, and thawed earlier than the adjacent peatland. Tree productivity and CO2 flux varied between the plots, and there was no clear pattern in relation to distance from the road. The plots on the winter road acted as a greater CO2 sink and greater CH4 source compared to the adjacent peatland with plots on the winter road emitting on average (standard error) 479 (138) compared to 41 (10) mg CH4 m−2 day−1 in the adjacent peatland. Considering both gases, global warming potential increased from 70 to 250 g CO2e m−2 year−1 in the undisturbed area to 2100 g CO2e m−2 year−1 on the winter road. Although carbon fluxes on any given cutline through peatland will vary depending on level of compaction, line width and vegetation community shifts, the large number of linear disturbances in Canada's boreal forest and slow recovery on peatland ecosites suggest they could represent an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under a warming climate, the boreal forest could become one of the largest terrestrial net CO 2 sources, as increasing disturbances and soil organic matter decomposition rates (heterotrophic respiration, Rh) could offset net primary production. Since soil represents the boreal forest's largest C pool, it is critical of correctly predicting future changes in Rh, as well as its sensitivity to temperature (Q 10 of Rh). We simulated a soil warming by transplanting soil cores from boreal balsam fir ( Abies balsamea , BF) and black spruce ( Picea mariana, BS) stands to a more southern Eastern hemlock stand ( Tsuga canadensis , EH). We measured Rh and soil properties over 3 years, from June to October. Over three snow-free seasons, soil temperature (first 10 cm, including the FH organic layers) and Rh increased for BF (+3.2 °C, +60% of Rh) and BS cores (+2.3 °C, +27% of Rh). Microbial C concentration decreased by 54–73% in the FH layers of warmed and control cores relative to initial values, despite unchanged chemically labile C, probably due to excised roots and mycorrhizal hyphae. This suggests a possible underestimation of Rh during the experiment. In BF soils only, the increase in Rh was accompanied by an increase in its sensitivity to temperature. Under a +5 °C soil warming, mean predicted Rh of BF soils would increase by 83% rather than by 56%. Relative to BS soils, such increase in sensitivity could be partly due to a higher fraction of chemically labile C (+52%) in the FH layers and a higher mean warming effect. It suggests that for BF forest soils, predicting decomposition rates for a warmer climate based on current temperature sensitivities could be inadequate. However, longer-term studies are needed to see if this increase in Q 10 of Rh for BF soils would be maintained for longer periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes have induced the northward migration of outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.), one of the most dangerous pests in the taiga. The initial outbreak of the Siberian silk moth began in 2014 in Siberian pine-fir stands within the Yenisei Plain on the southwestern flat slopes at elevations up to 200 m above sea level. Further, the outbreak extended to the parts of the forest with higher humidity, the northern slopes, and Yenisei Ridge at low and middle elevations. The northern limit of the outbreak zone shifted to 50 km (to 60°26' N) northward from the historical boundary of formerly observed outbreaks. The outbreak was incited by an increase in aridity, the sum of positive temperatures (t > +10°C), and a decrease in soil moisture. It extended to an area of 800000 ha. Stand mortality was accompanied by the activation of secondary pests, including aggressive bark beetle species Polygraphus proximus. The outbreak under study is part of the panzonal outbreak that occurred in 2014-2017 on the territory of Siberia in Krasnoyarsk krai and Tomsk, Kemerovo, and Irkutsk oblasts. The increase in warming, aridity, and vegetative period provides opportunities for the Siberian silk moth to migrate to the northern dark-conifer taiga. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lack of snow cover due to winter climate change has great potential to impact winter soil nitrogen cycling in boreal forests. A snow manipulation was conducted in a Tibetan spruce forest to explore the effects of snow absence on winter soil nitrogen dynamics by shelter method. Snow absence on average reduced soil temperatures at the depths of 0 cm and 5 cm by 1.44 °C and 0.33 °C, respectively, throughout the winter. Moreover, snow absence increased soil frost and freeze-thaw cycles. Soil net nitrogen mineralization and labile nitrogen pools (ammonium, nitrate and dissolved organic nitrogen) were higher in the snow absence plots compared to control plots. Snow absence increased soil microbial biomass carbon but did not affect microbial biomass nitrogen. Nevertheless, soil enzyme activities involved in nitrogen cycles were often lowered by snow absence over the winter. The results noted in this study suggest that warming-induced absence in seasonal snowpack may stimulate winter soil nitrogen availabilities by changing soil microhabitats, which has important implications for soil biogeochemical cycles in the subalpine forest ecosystems on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is not clear how climate change in combination with increasing soil nitrogen availability and herbivory affects boreal forests, the largest terrestrial biome in the world. In this study, Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ) seedlings were exposed to moderate warming (ca. 1 °C), 1.5 × ambient ozone (O 3 ) concentration, fertilizer addition (120 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ) and shoot herbivory by pine sawfly ( Acantholyda posticalis ) alone and in combination. We measured fine root morphology, mycorrhizal colonization level, root fungal biomass (ergosterol), rhizosphere emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and microbial biomass (PLFAs) in the rhizosphere soil as well as seedling above- and below-ground growth. Warming and fertilization effects on fine root proportions or root fungal biomass occurred in combination with other factors, combination effects being usually negative on the studied variables, or then warming and fertilization in combination cancelled some other factors’ effects. O 3 effects on needle growth, root fungal biomass and BVOCs were more often seen after the third exposure year, and sometimes only in combination with other studied factors. Of abiotic factors, fertilizer addition had reducing effect on rhizosphere BVOCs. Though increased nitrogen availability and warming increased both shoot and root dry masses, growth allocation to above- and below-ground parts was not equally increased in the combined exposures. Thus, we conclude that climate change factors together with increased nitrogen availability and herbivory are likely to affect the below-ground compartments negatively, more often than shoots, and ultimately change in growth allocation pattern which may affect overall seedling growth and survival in later years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In northeastern Canadian boreal forests, a coarse-filter approach was adopted to provide sustainable ecosystem services in order to maintain a balance between biodiversity, ecosystem function and timber production. An old forest (>100 years) maintenance target was established considering the range of historical variability in the proportion of this forest stage. However, the estimation of the harvesting rate that maintains the target level in old forests did not consider explicitly the impact of current and future, i.e. possibly higher, fire frequency. In this context, we compared historical, current, and future age structures according to recorded or projected fire activity and the current level of harvesting in western Quebec's boreal forest. Results show that under the current rates of harvesting and fire, the proportion of old forests could reach a minimum level rarely seen in the natural landscape in the past. The situation could become even more critical with the projected increase in fire activity under climate change. Numerous forest and fire management solutions exist, such as increasing rotation length, implementing a diversified silviculture, using a fire-smart approach or reaching a better balance between intensive management and conservation. We advocate their rapid implementation to reverse the projected decrease in the proportion of old forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is rapidly altering many aquatic systems, and life history traits and physiological diversity create differences in organism responses. In addition, habitat diversity may be expressed on small spatial scales, and it is therefore necessary to account for variation among both species and locations when evaluating climate impacts on biological communities. Here, we investigated the effects of temperature and spatial heterogeneity on long-term community composition in a large boreal lake. We used a five-decade time series of water temperature and relative abundance of fish species captured in the littoral zone throughout the summer at 10 discrete locations around the lake. We applied a spatial dynamic factor analysis ( SDFA) model to this time series, which estimates the sensitivity of each species to changing water temperature while accounting for spatiotemporal variation. This analysis described the trend in community composition at each sampling location in the lake, given their different trends in temperature over time. The SDFA indicated different magnitude and direction of species responses to temperature; some species increased while others decreased in abundance. The model also identified five unique trends in species abundance across sites and time, indicating residual dynamics in abundance after accounting for temperature effects. Thus, different regions in the lake have experienced different trajectories in community change associated with different rates of temperature change. These results highlight the importance of considering habitat heterogeneity in explaining and predicting future species abundances, and our model provides a means of visualizing spatially-explicit temporal variation in species' dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which better represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties - including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity - are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50% in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10% in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insufficient chilling resulting from rising winter temperatures associated with climate warming has been an area of particular interest in boreal and temperate regions where a period of cool temperatures in fall and winter is required to break plant dormancy. In this study, we examined the budburst and growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud.) seedlings subjected to typical northern Ontario, Canada, spring conditions in climate chambers after different exposures to natural chilling. Results indicate that chilling requirements (cumulative weighted chilling hours) differed substantially among the seven species, ranging from 300 to 500 h for spruce seedlings to more than 1100 h for trembling aspen and lodgepole pine. Only spruce seedlings had fulfilled their chilling requirements before December 31, whereas the other species continued chilling well into March and April. Species with lower chilling requirements needed more heat accumulation for budburst and vice versa. Insufficient chilling delayed budburst but only extremely restricted chilling hours (<400) resulted in abnormal budburst and growth, including reduced needle and shoot expansion, early budburst in lower crowns, and erratic budburst on lower stems and roots. Effects, however, depended on both the species' chilling requirements and the chilling-heat relationship. Among the seven tree species examined, trembling aspen is most likely to be affected by reduced chilling accumulation possible under future climate scenarios, followed by balsam poplar, white birch, lodgepole pine, and jack pine. Black and white spruce are least likely to be affected by changes in chilling hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide ( CO2) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO2 exchange ( NEELAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity ( GPP) and ecosystem respiration ( ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEELAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEELAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEELAND (−20 g C m−2) and wetland NEE (−24 g C m−2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEELAND. In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEELAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO2 uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO2 uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m−2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m−2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO2 uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO2 uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO2 sources under continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We conclude that NEELAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]