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High‐latitude Asia (above 60°N) is highly sensitive to global climate change. Warming has led to frequent extreme climate events and has produced important impacts on both the ecological environment and social economy. However, station observations are scarce and there is limited climate change research in the region. Reanalysis data is a potential alternative to scarce observations, but its suitability in high‐latitude Asia has not been well evaluated. In this study, we systematically evaluate the abilities of five reanalysis datasets (MERRA‐2, CFSR, ERA‐Interim, JRA‐55, and ERA5) and one gridded observation dataset (CPC) to characterize mean/extreme temperature and precipitation in high‐latitude Asia through comparison with GHCN‐D station observations. All six datasets reasonably reproduce spatial and temporal variations in mean/extreme temperature and precipitation over the region and match well with the observed climatology. Of these datasets, CPC shows the best performance for mean/extreme temperature and precipitation in high‐latitude Asia, because it is produced through interpolation of station observations. Among the five reanalysis datasets, ERA5 overall shows the best agreement with observed spatiotemporal changes in mean/extreme temperature and precipitation, although it is not superior for all variables. Temperature is generally characterized better than precipitation in these datasets. These results will be helpful for the selection and improvement of reanalyses and thus further climate research in high‐latitude Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation extremes and associated hazards often cause agricultural losses and infrastructure damage and even exert negative impacts on human health. It is thus crucial to assess future changes in precipitation extremes and exposure under future warming scenarios to improve the mitigation of climate change. On the basis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 simulations, we find that occurring probabilities of precipitation extremes that exceed the 99th percentile threshold are projected to increase over global lands in the coming century, especially under the no‐mitigation scenario of SSP5‐8.5. Under this scenario, by the end of this century, occurrences of aggregations of precipitation extremes over global lands are expected to increase by approximately 1.8 times. Increases are also expected even if early mitigation is conducted via SSP1‐2.6. Accordingly, global aggregate exposure would increase by at least 50% in the future under SSP5‐8.5. Changes in precipitation extremes will exert a substantial influence on population exposure, of which contribution will be up to 46% under SSP5‐8.5 by the end of this century. The future maximum centers of exposure are concentrated over East Asia, South Asia, the Mediterranean basin, and eastern North America, as in the current state. However, the rapid increase in population over some parts of Africa plays a larger role than climate change and significantly increases the exposure in these regions. As a result, regions of Africa will become other high‐exposure global centers in the future. Climate change mitigation should be thus the key policy response to reduce population exposure in the future over most global regions. Plain Language Summary: Risks of precipitation extremes and associated hazards have been reported to increase in the past decades around the world, which often caused agricultural losses, food shortages, infrastructure damage, and even human deaths. With further warming in the future, results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 simulations show that the occurring risks of precipitation extremes are expected to obviously increase across the world over the coming century, especially under the no‐mitigation scenario of SSP5‐8.5. Correspondingly, there would be more population exposures to precipitation extremes across the world in the future, with the high exposure mainly centering over East Asia, South Asia, the Mediterranean basin, Eastern North America, and Africa. By the end of this century, the global aggregate exposure would increase by at least 50% with respect to the current climate under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. Further analyses reveal that climate change exerts a substantial influence on the increased exposure though it varies from region and scenario. Climate change mitigation should be thus the key policy response to reduce population exposure to precipitation extremes in the future. Additionally, population growth also plays a great role in the increase of exposure over some regions, such as Africa. Key Points: The occurring probabilities of precipitation extremes are projected to significantly increase over the coming century across the worldThe global aggregate exposure is expected to increase by at least 50% in the future if there is no mitigation to climate changeClimate change exerts an increased influence on future exposure across the world and population growth also plays a great role in some regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the synoptic‐scale circulation patterns favorable for regional extreme precipitation events over southwest China (SWC) from 1979 to 2018 occurring during the rainy seasons. The whole SWC is regionalized into two subregions, western SWC and eastern SWC, according to the spatial distribution of two extreme precipitation indices. Furthermore, the atmospheric patterns associated with the independent regional extreme precipitation events (REPEs) that occurred over the two subregions are categorized into two types using k‐means clustering. For type 1, a Rossby wave train originating from the Northeast Atlantic almost a week before REPEs leads to an anomalous low over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), inducing upper‐troposphere divergence and ascending motion over SWC. Moreover, anomalous convective activities over India and the Bay of Bengal (the enhanced and westward‐extended western Pacific subtropical high) are critical precursors of REPEs over western (eastern) SWC. For type 2, an anomalous high is developed over the Ural Mountains at least a week prior to REPEs. The subsequent anomalous low over Lake Baikal and eastward‐shifted South Asian high are conducive to forming updrafts over SWC. An anomalous anticyclone at the middle‐to‐lower troposphere south of the TP is the main moisture contributor. Discrepancies in the zonal location of the Lake Baikal low and the strength of the Ural Mountain high, as well as the intensity of atmospheric circulation anomalies at low latitudes, are the major differences between the type 2 events occurring in western and eastern SWC. Key Points: Two types of atmospheric circulation anomalies are favorable for extreme precipitation events over southwest China during rainy seasonsRossby wave trains from the Northeast Atlantic and the Ural Mountains are critical precursors of the extreme precipitation eventsThe low‐latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies mainly determine the spatial differences and the extremeness of the events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changes in occurring probability of exceeding historically observed climate extreme events under the future warming scenario of SSP5-8.5. The probability ratios are estimated relative to the current state of 1995–2014. Maps in the left column show the probability changes for the period 2046–2065 and the mid column displays the results for the period 2081–2100. The projected changes in regional frequencies of climate extreme events are also displayed in the right panels for the future years. The shaded areas show the interquartile model spread, i.e., the range between the 25th and 75th percentiles of model ensemble, representing the confidence level. Climate change has exerted substantial influence on climate extreme events. To what degree anthropogenic influence has increased the risks of climate extreme events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. We find that the observed trends have exerted substantial influences on the severity and probability of the unprecedented hot, cold, wet, and dry events during the past decades across China. Attribution analyses based on different forcing simulations of CMIP6 indicate that humans have increased probabilities of historical hot and wet extremes, including in more than 75% and 56% of the areas in China, respectively. Particularly for the hottest day, the probability has increased by more than two times in over 20% of the area, while the probability of historical clod events decreases over most of China. Increasing emissions in the future are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than tenfold for the hottest day and twofold for the extreme wet events by the end of this century. For example, the observed hottest day would occur for each year over 80% of China from 2080, while the observed coldest night would never occur, and the driest events would markedly decrease by the end of this century. Therefore, it is now urgent for governments and the public to properly adopt effective strategies to mitigate anthropogenic influence on climate change in the future. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lake area in the Inner Mongolian Plateau (IMP) has experienced a rapid reduction in recent decades. Previous studies have highlighted the important role of intensive human activities in IMP lake shrinkage. However, this study found that climate change–induced summer precipitation variations can exert great influences on the IMP lake area variations. The results suggest that the decadal shift in the IMP summer precipitation may be the predominant contributor to lake shrinkage. Further analysis reveals that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) play important roles in the IMP summer precipitation variations. The AMO seems to provide beneficial large-scale circulation fields for the decadal variations in the IMP summer precipitation, and the Arctic SIC decline is favorable for weakening the IMP summer precipitation intensity after the late 1990s. Evidence indicates that the vorticity advection related to the Arctic SIC decline can result in the generation of Rossby wave resources in the midlatitudes. Then, the strengthened wave resources become favorable for enhancing the stationary wave propagation across Eurasia and inducing cyclonic circulation over the Mongolia–Baikal regions, which might bring more rainfall northward and weaken the IMP summer precipitation intensity. Consequently, due to the decreased rainfall and gradual warming after the late 1990s, the lake area in the IMP has experienced a downward trend in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite data, characterized by extensive regional coverage and relatively high spatial resolution, have a distinct advantage for examining elevation‐dependent warming (EDW) across rugged topography in mountain regions where there are sparse in situ observations. Based on recent (2001–2015) comprehensive satellite‐based data sets (2 m air temperature, land surface temperature, snow cover, and daytime and nighttime cloud), this study finds that annual mean 2 m  air temperature warming rates show rapid decrease above 4,500 m despite increasing from 2,000 to 4,500 m. This indicates a reversal in EDW at the highest elevations on the Tibetan Plateau, which is somehow different from the EDW derived from short‐term land surface temperature presented in earlier research. The decrease of warming rate above 4,500 m coincides with the elevation at which most of the current solid water resources reside. Thus, their decline may be less rapid than previously thought. Trends in nighttime cloud and snow cover are both correlated with patterns of EDW on the Tibetan Plateau, but the leading factor varies on an annual and seasonal basis. These results provide important evidence for understanding EDW and its controlling mechanisms in an extreme high‐elevation context. Key Points: The warming rate of satellite‐based 2 m air temperatures rapidly decreases above 4,500 m despite an increase from 2,000 to 4,500 m over the Tibetan PlateauThe decrease of warming rate above 4,500 m is conducive to less rapid decline of 83% of the current plateau solid water resourcesChanges in nighttime cloud cover and snow cover have a strong control on EDW patterns on the plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake ice phenology, as an indicator for climate variability and change, exerts a great influence on regional climate and hydrometeorology. In this study, the changing characteristics of lake ice phenology at Lake Qinghai (LQH) are investigated using retrieved historical datasets during 1979–2016. The results show that the variation of the lake freeze-up date over LQH is characterized by a strong interannual variability. Further analysis has revealed that November sea ice concentration (SIC) variation in the Kara Sea can exert a great impact on the freeze-up date at LQH. During the low sea ice years, the open sea serves as a strong diabatic heating source, largely contributing to the enhanced Arctic Eliassen–Palmer flux, which then results in the deceleration of zonal wind in the middle and high latitudes. In addition to this, accompanied with the decreasing Kara SIC, the enhanced stationary Rossby wave flux propagating along the high-latitude regions may further exert remarkable influences in deepening the East Asian trough, which provides a favorable atmospheric circulation pattern for cold air intrusion from the Arctic and Siberian regions to mainland China. The decreased surface air temperature would thus advance the freezing date over LQH. Furthermore, the close relationship between atmospheric circulation anomalies and Kara SIC variations is validated by a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model, and the atmospheric circulation patterns induced by the SIC anomalies are reproduced to some extent. Therefore, the November Kara Sea ice anomaly might be an important predictor for the variation in the freeze-up date at LQH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have indicated that the relationship between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) weakened significantly after the late 1970s. In this study, the relationship is further analysed based on the impact of different ENSO types. It is found that the relationship between ENSO and the EAWM is related to the ENSO's types. The relationship with the EAWM is strong for eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO but weak for central Pacific (CP) ENSO. The blend of EP and CP ENSO events in the Niño3 index results in a weakened statistical relationship between ENSO and the EAWM. If the pure CP ENSO events are removed from the Niño3 index, the results show that EP ENSO still exerts influence on the EAWM after the late 1970s via its strong connections with the Philippine Sea anticyclone (PSAC) and East Asian trough (EAT), similar to the period before the late 1970s. In contrast, the connections between CP ENSO and the PSAC and EAT are relatively weak, consequently resulting in a weakened relationship between CP ENSO and the EAWM. The influence of mixed (MIX) ENSO on the EAWM is similar to that of EP ENSO. Thus, the EP and MIX ENSO events have had a stable influence on the East Asian winter climate over the past half century, which is significant for the prediction of the East Asian winter climate. Scatterplot of the normalized EAWMI‐1 and Niño3 indices during the period after the late 1970s. The light‐coloured circles represent the normal years. The dark‐coloured rectangles and diamonds represent the EP and CP ENSO events, respectively. A symbol overlaid with a pentagram represents a MIX ENSO event. The results indicate that the EP and MIX ENSO (CP ENSO) events have a strong (weak) influence on the East Asian winter climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This study reveals that the winter East Asian jet stream ( EAJS) shows a strong variability in its zonal location; this topic has received less attention compared with the EAJS intensity and meridional location variability in previous studies. We show that the mid-to-high latitude climate system is mainly responsible for the EAJS eastward shift and the tropical system is closely related with the EAJS westward shift. In the EAJS east-located years, North Pacific Oscillation undergoes a positive phase, which can enhance the eastern part of the EAJS over the North Pacific, favouring the eastward shift of the EAJS. In the west-located years, the tropical convection over the Indian Ocean is strong, which can strengthen the zonal angular momentum transport from the Tropics to subtropical westerly belt. Consequently, the western part of the EAJS enhances and the EAJS shifts westward. In addition, the east-located EAJS is related to the intensified Aleutian Low and East Asian trough, and thus, Northeast China, Korean Peninsula, and Japan experience low temperatures. On the other hand, the west-located EAJS is associated with the weakened mid-Asian ridge and cold-temperature advection over southern East Asia, and thus, regions from mid-Asia southeastward to southern China experience cold temperatures. Therefore, the zonal location of the EAJS is a potentially good index of the northern or southern East Asian anomalous temperature pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades, including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate. Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era, as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response (e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use reconstructed data and multi-centennial integrations performed with the Bergen Climate Model Version 2 to investigate the impact of natural external forcing factors on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the potential relationship between the ISM rainfall and the winter NAO on decadal to inter-decadal timescales. The model simulations include a 600-year control integration (CTL600) and a 600-year integration with time-varied natural external forcing factors from 1400 to 1999 (EXT600). Both reconstructed data and the simulation showed increased ISM rainfall 2-3 years after strong volcanic eruptions. Strong volcanic eruptions decrease the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), which increases the strength of the southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea. With negative externally-forced radiative anomaly, the lower stratospheric pole-to-equator winter temperature gradient is enhanced, leading to a positive winter NAO anomaly with a time lag of 1 year. There is no significant correlation between the winter NAO and ISM rainfall in CTL600. However, the ISM rainfall is significantly positively correlated with the winter NAO in EXT600, with the NAO leading by 2-4 years, which is consistent with the NAO-ISM rainfall relationship in the reconstructed data. We suggest that natural external forcing factors regulate the inter-decadal variability of both the winter NAO and the ISM rainfall and thus likely lead to an increased statistical but not causal relationship between them on the inter-decadal timescale over the past centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of precipitation-related extremes and to increase drought and flood risk. Thus, future changes in dryness and wetness over global land areas are analysed using future climate simulations from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 forcing scenario. Model reproducibility is evaluated first, and it is shown that high performance can be achieved in present-day climate simulations by models, particularly in multi-model ensemble (MME) results. For future climate simulations, the highest reliability regarding changes in precipitation and its related extremes is found over Northern high latitudes, while the lowest confidence levels are mainly localized over the tropics. The projections indicate a high likelihood that there will be a shift to fewer dryness but to more extreme precipitation events or/and flood events in future over Northern high latitudes. Among populated areas, Mediterranean basin is highlighted as displaying a relatively high reliability of increases in both dryness and wetness indicators, implying increased probabilities of both drought and flood events, despite the fact that there would be less precipitation. In North America and Asian monsoon areas, dryness indictors show no obvious changes, while markedly increases are found in wetness indicators, concurrent with a high model agreement. In contrast, southern Africa, Australia, and the Amazon basin show relatively high reliability regarding increases in dryness, but a low confidence level in wetness. The severity of these changes is not uniform across annual and seasonal scales and is region dependent. Two sources of uncertainty in projections are investigated in this study: internal and inter-model variability. The analysis indicates that internal and inter-model variability are the dominant sources of uncertainty in extreme climate projections, and inter-model variability is much larger and increases with time. Further analysis shows that both sources of uncertainty generally perform lower on annual and global scales than on seasonal and regional ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the 'Green Great Wall' project and future climate change, the vegetation in the Northwest Hetao Plain (NWHP) of China is expected to undergo considerable changes. In this study, the climatic response to prescribed changes in vegetation is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. When the vegetation is changed from 'bare or sparsely vegetated' category to 'grassland' in the NWHP, the climate shows both local and remote responses. Locally, the temperature increases in the winter but decreases in the summer. The precipitation level increases substantially in the summer while increases slightly in the winter, which is mainly caused by the increase in the amount of water-vapour and circulation adjustment. Additionally, atmospheric circulation anomalies also lead to remote circulation responses, including a decrease in precipitation over Central North China and an increase in precipitation over Central and South China. The results of this study bring to light the local and remote climatic responses to changes in vegetation in the NWHP using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on hindcasts obtained from the 'Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction' (DEMETER) project, this study proposes a statistical downscaling (SD) scheme suitable for global precipitation forecasting. The key idea of this SD scheme is to select the optimal predictors that are best forecast by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and that have the most stable relationships with observed precipitation. Developing the prediction model and further making predictions using these predictors can extract useful information from the CGCMs. Cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate that this SD scheme can significantly improve the prediction capability of CGCMs during the boreal summer (June-August), even over polar regions. The predicted and observed precipitations are significantly correlated, and the root-mean-square-error of the SD scheme-predicted precipitation is largely decreased compared with the raw CGCM predictions. An inter-model comparison shows that the multi-model ensemble provides the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble with the SD scheme can improve the prediction skill for precipitation globally, which is valuable for current operational precipitation prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses projections of heavy rainfall events in China during the 21st century based on daily precipitation data from the Fourth Assessment Report's (AR4) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM). Results show that all three experimental scenarios (scenarios A2, A1B, and B1) project consistent changes in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century. In the regions of Northeast China and North China, there are no significant changes in frequency but there are remarkable increases in intensity of heavy rainfall, indicating that enhanced intensity is the main contributor to increased ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation in these regions. In regions of the lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China, increases in the amount of heavy rainfall are closely associated with increased frequency and increased intensity. Projected frequencies of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century increase by 30.9 ∼ 56.6% in the Yangtze River and 35.9 ∼ 50.2% in South China compared to the period of 1980-1999, and projected intensities increase by 1.0 ∼ 5.7% and 2.8 ∼ 6.3%, respectively. Additionally, the ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation increase by 2.3 ∼ 5.4% in the Yangtze River and 1.8 ∼ 3.8% in South China. The significant increases of heavy rainfall ratios indicate that as the climate warms, heavy rainfall events are expected to increase at rates that are much faster than increases in total precipitation amounts, indicating that China will experience increased amounts of flooding. These results are substantially consistent among the three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios. The increased probability of heavy rainfall events in China is closely connected with increased transportation of water vapour from the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea. Additionally, atmosphere stratification has become increasingly unstable, which has provided a favorable background for the initiation of heavy rainfall at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate prediction using a coupled model with a one-tier scheme is an important research direction. In this study, based on 1974-2001 hindcasts obtained from the 'Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction' (DEMETER) project, the capability of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to predict six climatic factors that have a close relationship with the western North Pacific typhoon activity is investigated over summer (June-October). Results indicate that all six DEMETER CGCMs well predict the six factors. Using the statistical relationship between these six factors and the typhoon frequency, the ability of the CGCMs to predict typhoon frequency is further explored. It is found that the six CGCMs also well predict the variability in typhoon frequency. Comparison analysis shows that the prediction skill of the statistical downscaling method is much better than that of the raw CGCMs. In addition, the six-model ensemble has the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble and statistical downscaling greatly improves the CGCM prediction skill, and will be an important research direction for typhoon prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of external forcings on the various summer hot drought events (SHDEs) over northeastern China (NEC). SHDEs are represented by the probability‐based index (PI), which considers precipitation and temperature anomalies. The results show that SHDEs over NEC increased from 1961 to 2005, and the experiments for historical forcing (ALL), increased greenhouse gases emission forcing (GHG), and anthropogenic forcing (ANT) can largely reproduce the spatial and temporal features of the trends of SHDEs over NEC. Based on the optimal fingerprinting method, the impact of increased anthropogenic activities can be detected at the 90% confidence level. In addition, the attributable changes of PI in response to GHG and ANT forcings resemble the observation, implying that the increasing trends of SHDEs over NEC are primarily attributed to the increased anthropogenic activity. Furthermore, the occurrence probability of SHDEs over NEC will be further increased under different Representative Concentration Pathways in the future. Additional strict control regulations on GHG emissions are thus suggested to mitigate its impact on regional climate changes. Key Points: Summer hot drought events over northeastern China are observed to increase in recent decadesEffects of anthropogenic activity emerge as an important factor to increase the summer hot drought events over northeastern ChinaThe frequency and the intensity of summer hot drought events over northeastern China will be further strengthened in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future climate change is crucial for securing and managing water supplies necessary for agricultural activities in China, particularly in rainfed agriculture regions. This paper evaluates the projected climate change for nine major agricultural zones in China, using ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) simulated under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-East Asia second phase (CORDEX-EA-II) framework. The simulations were conducted for two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at a 25 km grid spacing, with three RCMs (RegCM4, REMO, and WRF) driven by multiple CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The study compares the RCM simulations to the driving CMIP5 and the recent CMIP6 ensembles, focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, and surface relative humidity for the present day (1981–2010), mid-future (2036–2065), and far future (2070–2099) periods. The model evaluations indicate that the GCM and RCM simulations are consistent with observations, with RCMs showing better performance than the driving GCMs. The results show that both GCMs and RCMs project increased temperature and precipitation in most agricultural zones of China in the future, with the CMIP6 ensembles projecting the largest temperature increase and the CORDEX-EA-II ensemble showing the finest spatial details. Relative humidity is projected to decrease over major rice-producing areas of South China in the CORDEX-EA-II, CMIP5, and CMIP6 ensembles. This study provides valuable information to support climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts in China, particularly in the agricultural sectors. • CORDEX-EA-II simulations demonstrate better model performance over China. • Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. • Relative humidity is projected to decrease over South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]