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Continental margins are disproportionally important for global primary production, fisheries and CO2 uptake. However, across the Northeast Atlantic shelves, there has been an ongoing summertime decline of key biota—large diatoms, dinoflagellates and copepods—that traditionally fuel higher tropic levels such as fish, sea birds and marine mammals. Here, we combine multiple time series with in situ process studies to link these declines to summer nutrient stress and increasing proportions of picophytoplankton that can comprise up to 90% of the combined pico‐ and nanophytoplankton biomass in coastal areas. Among the pico‐fraction, it is the cyanobacterium Synechococcus that flourishes when iron and nitrogen resupply to surface waters are diminished. Our field data show how traits beyond small size give Synechococcus a competitive edge over pico‐ and nanoeukaryotes. Key is their ability to grow at low irradiances near the nutricline, which is aided by their superior light‐harvesting system and high affinity to iron. However, minute size and lack of essential biomolecules (e.g. omega‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and sterols) render Synechococcus poor primary producers to sustain shelf sea food webs efficiently. The combination of earlier spring blooms and lower summer food quantity and quality creates an increasing period of suboptimal feeding conditions for zooplankton at a time of year when their metabolic demand is highest. We suggest that this nutrition‐related mismatch has contributed to the widespread, ~50% decline in summer copepod abundance we observe over the last 60 years. With Synechococcus clades being prominent from the tropics to the Arctic and their abundances increasing worldwide, our study informs projections of future food web dynamics in coastal and shelf areas where droughts and stratification lead to increasing nutrient starvation of surface waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r = −0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a warming climate, differential shifts in the seasonal timing of predators and prey have been suggested to lead to trophic “mismatches” that decouple primary, secondary and tertiary production. We tested this hypothesis using a 25-year time-series of weekly sampling at the Plymouth L4 site, comparing 57 plankton taxa spanning 4 trophic levels. During warm years, there was a weak tendency for earlier timings of spring taxa and later timings of autumn taxa. While this is in line with many previous findings, numerous exceptions existed and only a few taxa (e.g. Gyrodinium spp., Pseudocalanus elongatus , and Acartia clausi ) showed consistent, strong evidence for temperature-related timing shifts, revealed by all 4 of the timing indices that we used. Also, the calculated offsets in timing (i.e. “mismatches”) between predator and prey were no greater in extreme warm or cold years than during more average years. Further, the magnitude of these offsets had no effect on the “success” of the predator, in terms of their annual mean abundance or egg production rates. Instead numerous other factors override, including: inter-annual variability in food quantity, high food baseline levels, turnover rates and prolonged seasonal availability, allowing extended periods of production. Furthermore many taxa, notably meroplankton, increased well before the spring bloom. While theoretically a chronic mismatch, this likely reflects trade-offs for example in predation avoidance. Various gelatinous taxa ( Phaeocystis , Noctiluca , ctenophores, appendicularians, medusae) may have reduced these predation constraints, with variable, explosive population outbursts likely responding to improved conditions. The match–mismatch hypothesis may apply for highly seasonal, pulsed systems or specialist feeders, but we suggest that the concept is being over-extended to other marine systems where multiple factors compensate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]