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Tracking climatic conditions throughout the year is often assumed to be an adaptive behaviour underlying seasonal migration patterns in animal populations. We investigate this hypothesis using genetic markers data to map migratory connectivity for 27 genetically distinct bird populations from 7 species. We found that the variation in seasonal climate tracking across our suite of populations at a continental scale is more likely a consequence, rather than a direct driver, of migratory connectivity, which is primarily shaped by energy efficiency-i.e., optimizing the balance between accessing available resources and movement costs. However, our results also suggest that regional-scale seasonal precipitation tracking affects population migration destinations, thus revealing a potential scale dependency of ecological processes driving migration. Our results have implications for the conservation of these migratory species under climate change, as populations tracking climate seasonally are potentially at higher risk if they adapt to a narrow range of climatic conditions., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Predicting species' capacity to respond to climate change is an essential first step in developing effective conservation strategies. However, conservation prioritization schemes rarely take evolutionary potential into account. Ecotones provide important opportunities for diversifying selection and may thus constitute reservoirs of standing variation, increasing the capacity for future adaptation. Here, we map patterns of environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei to identify areas with the greatest turnover in genomic composition. We also project patterns of environmentally associated genomic variation under future climate change scenarios to determine where populations may be under the greatest pressure to adapt. While precipitation gradients influence both genomic and craniometric variation, vegetation structure is also an important determinant of craniometric variation. Areas of elevated environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation overlap with zones of rapid ecological transition underlining their importance as reservoirs of evolutionary potential. We also find that populations in the Sanaga river basin, central Cameroon and coastal Gabon are likely to be under the greatest pressure from climate change. Lastly, we make specific conservation recommendations on how to protect zones of high evolutionary potential and identify areas where populations may be the most susceptible to climate change.

Fitzpatrick et al discuss issues that they had with analyses and interpretation in our recent manuscript on genomic correlates of climate in yellow warblers. We provide evidence that our findings would not change with different analysis and maintain that our study represents a promising direction for integrating the potential for climate adaptation as one of many tools in conservation management., (Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies (E. t. extimus) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability - the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype-environment relationships - indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate-associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype-environment relationships into landscape-scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts., (Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Although a number of recent studies suggest that climate associated shifts in agriculture are affecting social and economic systems, there have been relatively few studies of these effects in Africa. Such studies would be particularly useful in Central Africa, where the impacts of climate warming are predicted to be high but coincide with an area with low adaptive capacity. Focusing on plantain (Musa paradisiaca), we assess whether recent climate change has led to reduced yields. Analysis of annual temperature between 1950 and 2013 indicated a 0.8°C temperature increase over this 63-year period - a trend that is also observed in monthly temperatures in the last twenty years. From 1991 to 2011, there was a 43% decrease in plantain productivity in Central Africa, which was explained by shifts in temperature (R 2 =0.68). This decline may have reduced rural household wealth and decreased parental investment in education. Over the past two decades, there was a six month decrease in the duration of school attendance, and the decline was tightly linked to plantain yield (R 2 =0.82). By 2080, mean annual temperature is expected to increase at least 2°C in Central Africa, and our models predict a concomitant decrease of 39% in plantain yields and 51% in education outcomes, relative to the 1991 baseline. These predictions should be seen as a call-to-action for policy interventions such as farmer training programs to enhance the adaptive capacity of food production systems to mitigate impacts on rural income and education., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003-2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector-borne disease under climate change., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th) Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.

Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype-environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest-savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species-specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

Thermal adaptation to habitat variability can determine species vulnerability to environmental change. For example, physiological tolerance to naturally low thermal variation in tropical forests species may alter their vulnerability to climate change impacts, compared with open habitat species. However, the extent to which habitat-specific differences in tolerance derive from within-generation versus across-generation ecological or evolutionary processes are not well characterized. Here we studied thermal tolerance limits of a Central African butterfly (Bicyclus dorothea) across two habitats in Cameroon: a thermally stable tropical forest and the more variable ecotone between rainforest and savanna. Second generation individuals originating from the ecotone, reared under conditions common to both populations, exhibited higher upper thermal limits (CTmax) than individuals originating from forest (∼3°C greater). Lower thermal limits (CTmin) were also slightly lower for the ecotone populations (∼1°C). Our results are suggestive of local adaptation driving habitat-specific differences in thermal tolerance (especially CTmax) that hold across generations. Such habitat-specific thermal limits may be widespread for tropical ectotherms and could affect species vulnerability to environmental change. However, microclimate and within-generation developmental processes (e.g. plasticity) will mediate these differences, and determining the fitness consequences of thermal variation for ecotone and rainforest species will require continued study of both within-generation and across-generation eco-evolutionary processes.This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper.

Predicting species' capacity to respond to climate change is an essential first step in developing effective conservation strategies. However, conservation prioritization schemes rarely take evolutionary potential into account. Ecotones provide important opportunities for diversifying selection and may thus constitute reservoirs of standing variation, increasing the capacity for future adaptation. Here, we map patterns of environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei to identify areas with the greatest turnover in genomic composition. We also project patterns of environmentally associated genomic variation under future climate change scenarios to determine where populations may be under the greatest pressure to adapt. While precipitation gradients influence both genomic and craniometric variation, vegetation structure is also an important determinant of craniometric variation. Areas of elevated environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation overlap with zones of rapid ecological transition underlining their importance as reservoirs of evolutionary potential. We also find that populations in the Sanaga river basin, central Cameroon and coastal Gabon are likely to be under the greatest pressure from climate change. Lastly, we make specific conservation recommendations on how to protect zones of high evolutionary potential and identify areas where populations may be the most susceptible to climate change.

Although a number of recent studies suggest that climate associated shifts in agriculture are affecting social and economic systems, there have been relatively few studies of these effects in Africa. Such studies would be particularly useful in Central Africa, where the impacts of climate warming are predicted to be high but coincide with an area with low adaptive capacity. Focusing on plantain (Musa paradisiaca), we assess whether recent climate change has led to reduced yields. Analysis of annual temperature between 1950 and 2013 indicated a 0.8°C temperature increase over this 63-year period - a trend that is also observed in monthly temperatures in the last twenty years. From 1991 to 2011, there was a 43% decrease in plantain productivity in Central Africa, which was explained by shifts in temperature (R2=0.68). This decline may have reduced rural household wealth and decreased parental investment in education. Over the past two decades, there was a six month decrease in the duration of school attendance, and the decline was tightly linked to plantain yield (R2=0.82). By 2080, mean annual temperature is expected to increase at least 2°C in Central Africa, and our models predict a concomitant decrease of 39% in plantain yields and 51% in education outcomes, relative to the 1991 baseline. These predictions should be seen as a call-to-action for policy interventions such as farmer training programs to enhance the adaptive capacity of food production systems to mitigate impacts on rural income and education.

Central African rainforests are predicted to be disproportionately affected by future climate change. How species will cope with these changes is unclear, but rapid environmental changes will likely impose strong selection pressures. Here we examined environmental drivers of genomic variation in the central African puddle frog (Phrynobatrachus auritus) to identify areas of elevated environmentally-associated turnover. We also compared current and future climate models to pinpoint areas of high genomic vulnerability where allele frequencies will have to shift the most in order to keep pace with future climate change. Neither physical landscape barriers nor the effects of past Pleistocene refugia influenced genomic differentiation. Alternatively, geographic distance and seasonal aspects of precipitation are the most important drivers of SNP allele frequency variation. Patterns of genomic differentiation coincided with key ecological gradients across the forest-savanna ecotone, montane areas, and a coastal to interior rainfall gradient. Areas of greatest vulnerability were found in the lower Sanaga basin, the southeastern region of Cameroon, and southwest Gabon. In contrast with past conservation efforts that have focused on hotspots of species richness or endemism, our findings highlight the importance of maintaining environmentally heterogeneous landscapes to preserve genomic variation and ongoing evolutionary processes in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two categories of evolutionary challenges result from escalating human impacts on the planet. The first arises from cancers, pathogens, and pests that evolve too quickly and the second, from the inability of many valued species to adapt quickly enough. Applied evolutionary biology provides a suite of strategies to address these global challenges that threaten human health, food security, and biodiversity. This Review highlights both progress and gaps in genetic, developmental, and environmental manipulations across the life sciences that either target the rate and direction of evolution or reduce the mismatch between organisms and human-altered environments. Increased development and application of these underused tools will be vital in meeting current and future targets for sustainable development.

Evolutionary principles are now routinely incorporated into medicine and agriculture. Examples include the design of treatments that slow the evolution of resistance by weeds, pests, and pathogens, and the design of breeding programs that maximize crop yield or quality. Evolutionary principles are also increasingly incorporated into conservation biology, natural resource management, and environmental science. Examples include the protection of small and isolated populations from inbreeding depression, the identification of key traits involved in adaptation to climate change, the design of harvesting regimes that minimize unwanted life-history evolution, and the setting of conservation priorities based on populations, species, or communities that harbor the greatest evolutionary diversity and potential. The adoption of evolutionary principles has proceeded somewhat independently in these different fields, even though the underlying fundamental concepts are the same. We explore these fundamental concepts under four main themes: variation, selection, connectivity, and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Within each theme, we present several key evolutionary principles and illustrate their use in addressing applied problems. We hope that the resulting primer of evolutionary concepts and their practical utility helps to advance a unified multidisciplinary field of applied evolutionary biology.

Habitat-specific thermal responses are well documented in various organisms and likely determine the vulnerability of populations to climate change. However, the underlying roles of genetics and plasticity that shape such habitat-specific patterns are rarely investigated together. Here we examined the thermal plasticity of the butterfly Bicyclus dorothea originating from rainforest and ecotone habitats in Cameroon under common garden conditions. We also sampled wild-caught butterflies from forest and ecotone sites and used RADseq to explore genome-wide population differentiation. We found differences in the level of phenotypic plasticity across habitats. Specifically, ecotone populations exhibited greater sensitivity in wing eyespot features with variable development temperatures relative to rainforest populations. Known adaptive roles of wing eyespots in Bicyclus species suggest that this morphological plasticity is likely under divergent selection across environmental gradients. However, we found no distinct population structure of genome-wide variation between habitats, suggesting high level of ongoing gene flow between habitats is homogenizing most parts of the genome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying areas of high evolutionary potential is a judicious strategy for developing conservation priorities in the face of environmental change. For wide‐ranging species occupying heterogeneous environments, the evolutionary forces that shape distinct populations can vary spatially. Here, we investigate patterns of genomic variation and genotype–environment associations in the hermit thrush (Catharus guttatus), a North American songbird, at broad (across the breeding range) and narrow spatial scales (at a hybrid zone). We begin by building a genoscape or map of genetic variation across the breeding range and find five distinct genetic clusters within the species, with the greatest variation occurring in the western portion of the range. Genotype–environment association analyses indicate higher allelic turnover in the west than in the east, with measures of temperature surfacing as key predictors of putative adaptive genomic variation rangewide. Since broad patterns detected across a species' range represent the aggregate of many locally adapted populations, we investigate whether our broadscale analysis is consistent with a finer scale analysis. We find that top rangewide temperature‐associated loci vary in their clinal patterns (e.g., steep clines vs. fixed allele frequencies) across a hybrid zone in British Columbia, suggesting that the environmental predictors and the associated candidate loci identified in the rangewide analysis are of variable importance in this particular region. However, two candidate loci exhibit strong concordance with the temperature gradient in British Columbia, suggesting a potential role for temperature‐related barriers to gene flow and/or temperature‐driven ecological selection in maintaining putative local adaptation. This study demonstrates how patterns identified at the broad (macrogeographic) scale can be validated by investigating genotype–environment correlations at the local (microgeographic) scale. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of considering the spatial distribution of putative adaptive variation when assessing population‐level sensitivity to climate change and other stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global loss of biodiversity has placed new urgency on the need to understand factors regulating species response to rapid environmental change. While specialists are often less resilient to rapid environmental change than generalists, species‐level analyses may obscure the extent of specialization when locally adapted populations vary in climate tolerances. Until recently, quantification of the degree of climate specialization in migratory birds below the species level was hindered by a lack of genomic and tracking information, but recent technological advances have helped to overcome these barriers. Here we take a genome‐wide genetic approach to mapping population‐specific migratory routes and quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct populations of a migratory bird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), which exhibits variation in the severity of population declines across its breeding range. While our sample size is restricted to the number of genetically distinct populations within the species, our results support the idea that locally adapted populations of the willow flycatcher with narrow climatic niches across seasons are already federally listed as endangered or in steep decline, while populations with broader climatic niches have remained stable in recent decades. Overall, this work highlights the value of quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct groups across time and space when attempting to understand the factors that facilitate or constrain the response of locally adapted populations to rapid environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Biotropica is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The northern Andes, with their steep elevational and climate gradients, are home to an exceptional diversity of flora and fauna, particularly rich in avian species that have adapted to divergent ecological conditions. With this diversity comes the opportunity for parasites to exploit a wide breadth of avian hosts. However, little research has focused on examining the patterns of prevalence and lineage diversity of avian parasites in the Andes. Here, we screened a total of 428 birds from 19 species (representing nine families) and identified 133 infections of avian haemosporidia (31%), including lineages of Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, and Leucocytozoon. We document a higher prevalence of haemosporidia at higher elevations and lower temperatures, as well as an overall high diversity of lineages in the northern Andes, including the first sequences of haemosporidians reported in hummingbirds (31 sequences found in 11 species within the family Trochilidae). Double infections were distinguished using PHASE, which enables the separation of distinct parasite lineages. Results suggest that the ecological heterogeneity of the northern Andes that has given rise to a rich diversity of avian hosts may also be particularly conducive to parasite diversification and specialization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Andes are known to have influenced speciation patterns in many taxa, yet whether species diversification occurred simultaneously with their uplift or only after uplift was complete remains unknown. We examined both the phylogenetic pattern and dates of branching in Adelomyia hummingbirds in relation to Andean uplift to determine whether diversification coincides with the chronological phases of the uplift or with recent climatic fluctuations after Andean formation. Results suggest that the genus Adelomyia originated in the central Andes in the Miocene and was found to be comprised of six deeply divergent phylogroups dating between 3.5 and 6 Ma. The most basal splits in the tree, corresponding to the most southerly distributed of the six phylogroups, diverged in the late Miocene, whereas the northern phylogroups originated during the early-to-mid-Pliocene, when the northern Andes reached heights sufficient to support Adelomyia populations. Although we provide evidence for a southern origin for the group, the subsequent diversification of the northern phylogroups did not strictly follow the hypothesized south-to-north orogeny of the Andes. Further genetic structure within phylogroups may have resulted from Pleistocene climate fluctuations after the onset of the six lineages during the Mio-Pliocene. We explore the processes that promoted diversification in the Andes and suggest that in at least some groups, divergence was coupled to Andean orogeny. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hovering flight of hummingbirds is one of the most energetically demanding forms of animal locomotion and is influenced by both atmospheric oxygen availability and air density. Montane Neotropical hummingbirds are expected to shift altitudinally upwards in response to climate change to track their ancestral climatic regime, which is predicted to influence their flight performance. In this study, we use the climate envelope approach to estimate upward elevational shifts for five Andean hummingbird species under two climate change scenarios. We then use field-based data on hummingbird flight mechanics to estimate the resulting impact of climate change on aerodynamic performance in hovering flight. Our results show that in addition to significant habitat loss and fragmentation, projected upwards elevational shifts vary between 300 and 700 m, depending on climate change scenario and original mean elevation of the target species. Biomechanical analysis indicates that such upwards elevational shifts would yield a∼2-5° increase in wing stroke amplitude with no substantial effect on wingbeat frequency. Overall, the physiological impact of elevational shifts of <1000 m in response to climate change is likely to be small relative to other factors such as habitat loss, changes in floristic composition, and increased interspecific competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]