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Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Ecosystems provide essential services that form the basis of human well-being. Climate change-induced losses and damages to ecosystem services (l&d-ES) thus have significant impacts on societies. Yet, little of the work on losses and damages (l&d) has focused on ecosystem services. Also in international climate negotiations, where the debate emerged with the establishment of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), there remains space for better understanding and addressing l&d-ES. Part of the explanation of this lies in the challenge of assessing such l&d. To address this gap, this paper reviews scientific literature and data obtained from Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNAs) to explore ways forward for more in depth assessments. The review confirms that little attention has been given to the topic, identifying 27 relevant scientific papers with only 6 providing a disaggregated monetary value for l&d-ES. Also amongst the 64 analyised PDNAs, only 12 report such disaggregated value; valuing just one ecosystem service per impacted ecosystem. The review finds that the majority of both the scientific literature and the PDNAs relies on extrapolating values from the literature. To enhance l&d-ES assessment and, with that, the opportunity for better understanding, recognition and uptake by e.g. the WIM, this paper makes three recommendations: 1. establishing a baseline of ecosystems recognized for their services of disaster risk reduction and/or climate change adaptation, while highlighting the need for an accessible and representative benefit transfer database; 2. enhancing collaboration between scientists and practitioners; and 3. quantitatively increasing data on l&d-ES. Key policy insights There remains space for better understanding and addressing l&d-ES. To facilitate assessing l&d-ES, the establishment of ecological baselines should be encouraged for ecosystem services that can be reported on in other circumstances. Additionally, a benefit transfer database is needed that is that is geographically and ecologically representative, explicitly oriented towards l&d-ES, and easily accessible to both researchers and decision-makers. Considering the divergence of ecosystems addressed by different stakeholders, it may be advisable to encourage the collaboration of a wide stakeholder range, including scientists, to collect data that advance the understanding of l&d-ES. Disaggregated assessment of l&d-ES should be quantitatively increased and the WIM could encourage the reporting of l&d-ES, in order to expand the database and understanding of l&d-ES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Using complex adaptive systems theory allows understanding drivers of change and adaptation pathways of agricultural systems. • A dynamic interplay and feedback of drivers of change at different scales shaped the adaptations in agricultural systems in the Mekong delta. • Some of the land use change decisions such as conversion to shrimp aquaculture in the Mekong delta can lead to "lock-in" effects. • Adaptation pathways which allow for continuous change or that are reversible to avoid lock-ins and address future challenges should be favored. Abstract Agricultural systems are increasingly considered complex adaptive systems. They are dependent on the integrated nature of biophysical and social sub-systems, continuously adapt to changing conditions and often display non-linear responses to various drivers of change at multiple scales. This research applied the lens of complex adaptive systems theory to analyze current and historical drivers of change and adaptation pathways of agricultural systems to increased salinity intrusion in coastal areas of the Red River and Mekong deltas in Vietnam since 1975. The analysis is based on 27 in-depth interviews with officials of local and national authorities as well as 198 semi-structured interviews and 11 focus group discussions conducted with farmers along three salinity transects in both deltas in 2015-2016. The results show that a dynamic interplay and feedback of various drivers of change such as policy intervention, farmers' desire for profit maximization, changing salinity conditions, and technological development at different levels of the deltaic social-ecological system have shaped the changes and adaptations in agricultural systems over the last decades. In response to increased salinity intrusion, as exemplified by the historic salinity levels recorded in the Mekong Delta in 2015–2016, various adaptation options have been considered. These include adaptations that would lock-in agricultural production in particular systems or constrain changes in others, which is potentially problematic in light of the high uncertainty related to future changes. The study recognizes the need to apply both incremental and transformative changes and select adaptation pathways which allow for continuous change or that are reversible in order to avoid lock-ins and address future challenges. Additionally, attention should be drawn to interactions and feedbacks in future changes within and across adaptation pathways in order to prevent further increases in salinity intrusion and lock-in effects in agricultural systems within the deltas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions with wildlife can pose substantial physical risk to humans, as well as damage efforts to protect the species involved. News reports of increasing dangerous interactions with animals indicate climate change may be acting as a risk magnifier for these confrontations, yet its impacts on human-wildlife interactions remain uncertain in the scientific discourse. We analysed 331 media reports on climate change driven human wildlife conflicts involving physically dangerous species and verified the effects found in the media with evidence from scientific literature. Our analysis showed that climate change can increase wildlife-induced physical harm to people. This result was consistent for venomous species, terrestrial-and aquatic carnivorous species and large-bodied terrestrial animals in 44 countries across the globe. We identified four climate driven trends that impact the risk of human casualties: i) increased resource competition between humans and wildlife due to drought; ii) range expansion of dangerous animals due to higher average temperatures; iii) temporary displacement of wildlife due to extreme weather events; iv) and changes in temporal behaviour patterns of wildlife due to higher average temperatures. The identification of overarching trends across different regions and species show the need to bridge the gap between wildlife research and the study of climate-related risks. The existence of, or potential for, wildlife-induced physical harm to people should be taken into account as a component of climate change driven risk. At the same time, we stress the importance of including current and future impacts of climate change into long-term wildlife management- and conservation schemes. • Climate change can increase the risk of wildlife-induced harm to humans. • Trends in climate change driven dangerous WIH are found across regions and species. • There is a need to bridge the gap between wildlife- and climate risk research. • Climate change impacts should be included into wildlife management schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]