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Climate change impacts are pronounced at high latitudes, where warming, reduced sea-ice-cover, and ocean acidification affect marine ecosystems. We review climate change impacts on two major gateways into the Arctic: the Bering and Chukchi seas in the Pacific and the Barents Sea and Fram Strait in the Atlantic. We present scenarios of how changes in the physical environment and prey resources may affect commercial fish populations and fisheries in these high-latitude systems to help managers and stakeholders think about possible futures. Predicted impacts include shifts in the spatial distribution of boreal species, a shift from larger, lipid-rich zooplankton to smaller, less nutritious prey, with detrimental effects on fishes that depend on high-lipid prey for overwinter survival, shifts from benthic- to pelagic-dominated food webs with implications for upper trophic levels, and reduced survival of commercially important shellfish in waters that are increasingly acidic. Predicted changes are expected to result in disruptions to existing fisheries, the emergence of new fisheries, new challenges for managing transboundary stocks, and possible conflicts among resource users. Some impacts may be irreversible, more severe, or occur more frequently under anthropogenic climate change than impacts associated with natural variability, posing additional management challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subarctic shelf of the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is one of the world's most productive marine environments, exposed to drastic climate changes characterized by extreme fluctuations in temperature, sea ice concentration, timing, and duration. These climatic changes elicit profound responses in species distribution, abundance, and community composition. Here, we examined the patterns of alpha and temporal beta diversity of 159 marine taxa (66 vertebrates and 93 invertebrate species) from 29 years (1990–2018) of species observations from the NOAA bottom trawl surveys in the EBS. Based on these data, we identified geographically distinct refugial zones in the northern and southern regions of the middle shelf, defined by high species richness and similarity in community species composition over time. These refugial zones harbor higher frequencies of occurrence for representative taxa relative to the regions outside of refugia. We also explored the primary environmental factors structuring marine biodiversity distributions, which underpinned the importance of the winter sea ice concentration to alpha and temporal beta diversity. The spatial biodiversity distributions between high and low winter sea ice regimes highlighted contrasting signals. In particular, the latter showed elevated species richness compared to the former. Further, the temporal beta diversity between the high and low winter sea ice periods underpinned an overall increase in the compositional similarity of marine communities in the EBS. Despite these spatiotemporal differences in biodiversity distributions, the identified refugia represent safe havens of marine biodiversity in the EBS. Distinguishing these areas can help facilitate conservation and management efforts under accelerated and ongoing climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An international Open Science Meeting entitled Moving in, out, and across the Subarctic and Arctic marine ecosystems: shifting boundaries of water, ice, flora, fauna, people, and institutions, took place 11–15 June 2017 in Tromsø, Norway. Organized by the Ecosystem Studies of Subarctic and Arctic Seas programme and cosponsored by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization, the primary aim of the meeting was to examine past, present, and future ecosystem responses to climate variability and ocean acidification (OA) and their effect on fishing communities, the fishing industry and fisheries management in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the Arctic. This symposium issue contains several papers from the meeting covering topics from climate and OA, ecosystem responses to environmental change, and fisheries management including: a synthesis of the ecosystem responses to the AMO-linked cold period of the 1970s and 1980s; a novel approach to understand responses to OA in northern climes using natural carbonate chemistry gradients, such as CO2 vents, methane cold seeps, and upwelling area; the possibility that warm temperatures are allowing two generations of Calanus finmarchicus per year to be produced; a new hypothesis suggesting that in areas where sea ice disappears there could be an increase of fish species with swim bladders; results from laboratory experiments on the effects of temperature and food on Arctic and boreal fish larvae; the application of ecosystem-based management in northern regions; and a description of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration approach to marine conservation and how it affects fish populations and fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To investigate the species‐specific exposure and distributional responses of marine fish and invertebrate taxa to rapidly shifting climate in the Pacific Arctic, characterized by warming and cooling episodes, over the last 24 years. Location: Pacific Arctic region, eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea. Methods: We examined the variations in the summer (June–July) habitat patterns of 21 marine fish and invertebrate taxa in the eastern Bering Sea using multimodel ensemble predictions of species distribution between 1993 and 2016. Using ensemble model outputs, we examined the rates of predicted (biotic velocities) and expected (bioclimatic velocities) distribution shifts across taxa under four consecutive time periods of distinct climatic regimes. We then compared these species‐specific velocity metrics to the rates of local climatic shifts (climatic velocities) and quantified the potential lags in distributional responses relative to changes in climate across taxa and transitions. Results: Our analyses showed that individual taxa responded to climatic fluctuations at different paces and generally exhibited lags in their predicted distributional responses. Subarctic species revealed higher habitat sensitivity and exposure to climatic changes than Arctic taxa, as they expand their habitat ranges into suitable regions emerging in the north under warmer conditions. Importantly, the actual rates of climate shifts (climatic velocities) were poorly correlated with both the expected and observed shifts in species distributions across taxa. Main conclusions: Our findings underpin the importance of incorporating species‐specific climatic sensitivity and exposure to changes in climatic conditions when predicting range shift responses and evaluating species vulnerability. These insights are critical for conservation and management of fisheries resources in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Saroma Lake is the southernmost lagoon exhibiting seasonal sea ice coverage in the Northern hemisphere and one of the most important aquaculture areas for Japanese scallops (Mizuhopecten yessoensis). Under conditions of adequate food and appropriate temperature, scallops grow well from the time of ice melting in April to harvesting starting in July. However, over the past decade, Saroma Lake frequently has not been completely covered by ice in winter, and the production of Japanese scallops has shown significant changes. Therefore, this study integrated data from satellite remote sensing, buoys, and in situ observations with climatic events [the winter East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño/La Niña–Southern Oscillation events] to investigate the impact of ice coverage variations on scallop growth in Saroma Lake between 2007 and 2015. Daily ice conditions were detected using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer false colour images and an unsupervised classification method. The results indicated that EAM strongly influenced the ice coverage variation in Saroma Lake through their effects on temperature during winter. Ice coverage variations show a strong correlation with water temperature and spring phytoplankton blooms, which are the two most important environmental factors for scallop growth. In addition, extreme climate events could cause water temperature anomalies (as in 2015) which are unfavourable for scallop growth. Monitoring ice conditions should be considered when developing plans and management strategies for scallop aquaculture in Saroma Lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remotely derived environmental variables, including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a (chl-a), eddy kinetic energy (EKE), mixed layer data set of argo float (MLD), Niño 3.4 index, and bigeye tuna catch data for the period 1997-2008, were used to analyse ocean climate variability and how they relate to the hotspots of bigeye tuna catch in the eastern Indian Ocean off Java. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was performed to obtain a more detailed structure of the spatio-temporal ocean variability in the region. The results showed that the first EOF modes of chl-a, SSHA, and SST accounted for 42.8%, 36.5%, and 27.4% of total variance, respectively, and these corresponded to the interannual signal. The maps of spatial patterns of the first EOF modes of SSHA, SST, and chl-a gave very typical values for cold-water SSHA, low SST, and high chl-a concentration along the southern coast of the Indonesian archipelago; and warm-water SSHA, high SST, and low chl-a concentration in the offshore region to make frontal areas along the latitudinal line around 10-12° S. The EOF analysis further revealed a strong relationship between the El Niño event and favourable oceanographic conditions, resulting in a significant increase in bigeye tuna catch. The average hook rate of 0.71 (0.43) was recorded during El Niño (La Niña). Major hotspots were located away from the confluence region and frontal areas around 11-16° S and 110-118° E and were thus demonstrated as the most favourable oceanographic conditions for bigeye tuna fishing in the eastern Indian Ocean off Java. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes affect coastal environments and aquaculture, threatening food security and economic growth. Japanese scallop (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) culture is economically important for the coastal communities of Dalian, China, and Funka Bay, Japan. In this study, we combined satellite remote-sensing data,in situobservations, and a suitable aquaculture site selection model to explore the interactions between marine environments and climate variability over a recent 10-year period (2003–2012). Our selection of appropriate zones in these two Far Eastern regions and our analyses of climatic event (Arctic Oscillation (AO), winter East Asian monsoon (EAM), and El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and meteorological (precipitation, temperature, and wind) data allowed us to determine the impacts of climate change on regional coastal environments and prospects for scallop aquaculture. These analyses showed that AO and EAM strongly influenced the aquaculture areas on the Dalian coast through their effects on temperature during winter. We also determined that wind was the main driving force behind regional environmental changes during spring. Conversely, ocean conditions and suitable areas in Funka Bay changed rapidly relative to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. In Funka Bay, areas appropriate for scallop aquaculture and variations in chlorophyll-aconcentration (which reflect the availability of algal food for scallops) were strongly correlated with ENSO, precipitation, and air temperature. These correlations demonstrate the influence of oceanic and atmospheric parameters on the productivity of scallop aquaculture in Funka Bay.Adaptation to oceanic and atmospheric changes should be considered when developing plans and management strategies for coastal scallop aquaculture in northeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea-surface-height anomaly ISSHA], sea-surface temperature [SST], and chlorophyll-a concentration), and Bigeye Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 1997-2000, which included the 1997-98 El Nino and 1999-2000 La Nina events. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to examine oceano- graphic parameters quantitatively. The relationship of those parameters to variations in catch distribution of Bigeye Tuna was explored with a generalized additive model (GAM). The mean hook rate was 0.67 during El Niño and 0.44 during La Nina, and catches were high where SSHA ranged from -21 to 5 cm, SST ranged from 24°C to 27.5°C, and chlorophyll-a concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.16 mg m-3. The EOF analysis confirmed that the 1997-98 El Niño affected oceanographic conditions in the EIO off Java. The GAM results indicated that SST was better than the other environmental factors (SSHA and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of Bigeye Tuna catches in the region. According to the GAM predictions, the highest probabilities (70-80%) for Bigeye Tuna catch in 1997-2000 occurred during oceanographic conditions during the 1997-98 El Niño event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1997, ocean color satellite images have revealed large-scale blooms of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi in the eastern Bering Sea. The blooms are often sustained over several months and have caused ecosystem changes in the Arctic Ocean, as well as in the Bering Sea. We examined continental shelf sediment profiles of alkenone, a biomarker for E. huxleyi, covering the past ∼70 years. The alkenone records suggest that large E. huxleyi blooms are a novel feature in the Bering Sea as they have occurred only since the late 1970s. Recent changes in alkenone content were closely related to the 1976-77 climatic regime shift in the North Pacific, implying that warming and freshening of Bering Sea waters promoted E. huxleyi blooms. The production rate of diatoms (total valves in sediment samples), the dominant primary producers in the Bering Sea, also increased during the past several decades. However, the ratio of alkenone content to total diatom valves in the sediments increased as E. huxleyi production increased, suggesting that the increase in the E. huxleyi production rate frequently exceeded the increase in the diatom production rate. Overall, our results indicate a possible subarctic region ecosystem shift driven by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is triggering a global reorganization of marine life. Biogeographical transition zones, diversity-rich regions straddling biogeographical units where many species live at, or close to, their physiological tolerance limits (i.e., range distribution edges), are redistribution hotspots that offer a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate-driven thermophilization processes in natural communities. In this context, we examined the impacts of climate change projections in the 21st century (2026–2100) on marine biodiversity in the Eastern Bering and Chukchi seas within the Pacific Arctic, a climatically exposed and sensitive boreal-to-Arctic transition zone. Overall, projected changes in species distributions, modeled using species distribution models, resulted in poleward increases in species richness and functional redundancy, along with pronounced reductions in phylogenetic distances by century's end (2076–2100). Future poleward shifts of boreal species in response to warming and sea ice changes are projected to alter the taxonomic and functional biogeography of contemporary Arctic communities as larger, longer-lived and more predatory taxa expand their leading distributional margins. Drawing from the existing evidence from other Arctic regions, these changes are anticipated to increase the susceptibility and vulnerability of the Arctic ecosystems, as trophic connectance between biological components increases, thus decreasing the modularity of Arctic food webs. Our results demonstrate how integrating multiple diversity facets can provide key insights into the relationships between climate change, species composition and ecosystem functioning across marine biogeographic regions. Unlabelled Image • Profound changes in Pacific Arctic marine communities are projected from warming and sea ice loss. • Future biodiversity redistribution featured intense borealization of Arctic communities. • Influx of boreal taxa to warmer and sea ice-free Arctic drives future community shift. • Borealization could alter Arctic ecosystem properties, increasing its vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]