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Aim To develop an integrative framework to evaluate variation in aboveground carbon storage ( AGC). A model that can be applied to understand and predict how global-change drivers influence tropical carbon sinks. Location Old-growth tropical forests world-wide. Methods Using structural equation modelling ( SEM), we propose an a priori model to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of climate, stand variables (basal area, tree diameter and wood density at plot level) and liana abundance on AGC. Our model indicated that stand variables increased AGC while liana abundance decreased AGC indirectly via negative effects on stand variables. We used a multigroup SEM to test the generality of our framework using a standardized dataset of 145 plots (0.1 ha) in dry, moist and wet tropical forests. Results Our model explained over 85% variation in AGC and showed a positive and consistent relationship between stand variables and AGC across forests types. The effects of climate on AGC were indirect rather than direct, with negative effects of temperature in all forests. Liana abundance reduced tree diameter and basal area in moist forests, but did not affect AGC in wet or dry forests. Main conclusions Our results suggest that climate affects AGC indirectly, via its direct influence on stand variables and liana abundance. The effects of lianas on AGC result from reductions in stand variables and are as important as climate for moist forests, which harbour the greatest tropical carbon pools. Our model was consistent across forest types. This highlights the usefulness of an integrative framework to improve predictions of the effects of drivers of global change on tropical carbon sinks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Variation in the leaf optical properties imposed by variation in genetics and location has been addressed in recent literature, but those stemming from forest seasonality and phenology have been less well explored. Here, we explore the effect of inter-seasonal spectral variation on the potential for automated classification methods to accurately discern species of trees and lianas from high-resolution spectral data collected at the leaf level at two tropical forest sites. Through the application of a set of data reduction techniques and classification methods to leaf-level spectral data collected at both rainforest and seasonally dry sites in Panama, we found that in all cases the structure and organization of spectrally-derived taxonomies varied substantially between seasons. Using principle component analysis and a non-parametric classifier, we found at both sites that species-level classification was possible with a high level of accuracy within a given season. Classification across season was not, however, with accuracy dropping on average by a factor of 10. This study represents one of the first systematic investigations of leaf-level spectro-temporal variability, an appreciation for which is crucial to the advancement of species classification methods, with broad applications within the environmental sciences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Increasing dominance of lianas in many tropical forests is considered a fingerprint of global environmental change. Despite the key role they play in ecosystem functioning, lianas remain one of the least studied life forms in tropical environments. This paper contrasts leaf traits and spectral properties (400–1100 nm) of liana and tree communities from a tropical dry forest and a tropical rainforest in Panama, Central America. Differences between lianas and tree leaf traits were analyzed using spectroscopy, leaf histology and pigment extractions. Results from this study indicate that many of the biochemical, structural, and optical properties of lianas and trees are different in the dry forest site but not in rainforest sites. In the dry forest site, liana leaves exhibited significantly lower chlorophyll and carotenoid contents and were thinner than the leaves of their host trees. Specific leaf area, dry to fresh mass ratio, and mean water content of liana leaves were significantly higher when compared with tree leaves. The differences observed in the tropical dry forest site indicate that lianas may have a higher rate of resource acquisition and usage, whereas trees tend to conserve acquired resources. We suggest that our results may be indicative of the presence of a liana syndrome related to water availability and thus best exhibited in tropical dry forests. Our findings have important implications for using remote sensing to accurately map the distribution of liana communities at regional scales and for the continued expansion of lianas in tropical environments as a result of global change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • Low-cloud cover in cloud forests is declining. • Low-cloud trends over 23 years in 521 cloud forests were evaluated. • Seventy percent of the cloud forests experienced a decrease in low-clouds. • Cloud forests experience steeper declines in low-clouds than in tropical landmasses. • Low-cloud trends indicate potential threats to species and ecosystem services. Clouds are critical to the biodiversity and function of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCF) as they control water regimes and sunlight that can be perceived by plants. These ecosystems provide a key role in ecosystem services to humanity and are considered hotspots of endemism, given that the number of species is restricted to their microclimates. The cloudiness in these ecosystems is projected to decline owing to global warming, but recent temporal trends remain unclear. Here, we evaluated trends in low-cloud fractions (CF) (e.g., the proportion of an area covered by low-cloud) and other Essential Climatic Variables (ECV) (e.g., surface temperature, pressure, soil moisture, and precipitation) for 521 sites worldwide with TMFCs from 1997 to 2020. We hypothesize that recent traces of global warming over the last few decades have led to decreases in CF on TMCFs. The previous was also assessed globally and among biogeographic realms to identify regional trends. We calculated trends by aggregating hourly observations from ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS into annual averages and then using linear regressions to calculate slopes (i.e., rate of change) (Δ, year−1). Our results suggest that CF trends at the TMCFs range between −64.7×10−4 and 51.4×10−4 CF year−1, revealing that 70 % of the assessed sites have experienced reductions in CF. Declines in low-clouds in these ecosystems are 253 % more severe than tropical landmasses when peak values of density distribution are compared (TMCFs: −7.8×10−4 CF year−1; tropical landmasses −2.3×10−4 CF year−1). Despite this, CF trends differ among biogeographic realms, as those TMCFs from the Neotropics and Indomalayan realms have the most pronounced declines. Decreases in CF were also associated with increases in surface temperature and pressure and decreases in soil moisture, revealing that the TMCF's climate is changing to warmer environments. These climatic shifts may represent imprints of global change on TMCFs, highlighting a current threat to species and essential ecosystem services that these ecosystems provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with ‘very high confidence’ (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alford et al. question the working model underlying our test for a link between global warming and amphibian disappearances, and Di Rosa et al. criticize our emphasis on a single proximate agent, the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Both teams report key pieces of the amphibian-decline puzzle and new evidence from different parts of the world that climate change is a factor in these losses. Here we show why our working model was appropriate and highlight the complexity of the imminent threat to species survival that results as global warming conspires with various other agents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]