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With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals' persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes., (© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Spatial gradients in population growth, such as across latitudinal or elevational gradients, are often assumed to primarily be driven by variation in climate, and are frequently used to infer species' responses to climate change. Here, we use a novel demographic, mixed-model approach to dissect the contributions of climate variables vs. other latitudinal or local site effects on spatiotemporal variation in population performance in three perennial bunchgrasses. For all three species, we find that performance of local populations decreases with warmer and drier conditions, despite latitudinal trends of decreasing population growth toward the cooler and wetter northern portion of each species' range. Thus, latitudinal gradients in performance are not predictive of either local or species-wide responses to climate. This pattern could be common, as many environmental drivers, such as habitat quality or species' interactions, are likely to vary with latitude or elevation, and thus influence or oppose climate responses., (© 2020 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Ecological restoration often relies on disturbance as a tool for establishing target plant communities, but disturbance can be a double‐edged sword, at times initiating invasion and unintended outcomes. Here we test how fire disturbance, designed to enhance restoration seeding success, combines with climate and initial vegetation conditions to shift perennial versus annual grass dominance and overall community diversity in Pacific Northwest grasslands. We seeded both native and introduced perennial grasses and native forbs in paired, replicated burned‐unburned plots in three sites along a latitudinal climate gradient from southern Oregon to central‐western Washington. Past restoration and climate manipulations at each site had increased the variation of starting conditions between plots. Burning promoted the expansion of extant forbs and perennial grasses across all sites. Burning also enhanced the seeding success of native perennial grass and native forbs at the northern and central site, and the success of introduced perennial grasses across all three sites. Annual grass dominance was driven more by latitude than burning, with annuals maintaining their dominance in the south and perennials in the north. At the same time, unrestored grasslands surrounding all sites remained dominated by perennial grasses, suggesting that initial plot clearing may have allowed for annual grass invasion in the southern site. When paired with disturbance, further warming may increase the risk of annual grass dominance, a potentially persistent state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting species' range shifts under future climate is a central goal of conservation ecology. Studying populations within and beyond multiple species' current ranges can help identify whether demographic responses to climate change exhibit directionality, indicative of range shifts, and whether responses are uniform across a suite of species.We quantified the demographic responses of six native perennial prairie species planted within and, for two species, beyond their northern range limits to a 3‐year experimental manipulation of temperature and precipitation at three sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We estimated population growth rates (λ) using integral projection models and tested for opposing responses to climate in different demographic vital rates (demographic compensation).Where species successfully established reproductive populations, warming negatively affected λ at sites within species' current ranges. Contrarily, warming and drought positively affected λ for the two species planted beyond their northern range limits. Most species failed to establish a reproductive population at one or more sites within their current ranges, due to extremely low germination and seedling survival. We found little evidence of demographic compensation buffering populations to the climate treatments.Synthesis. These results support predictions across a suite of species that ranges will need to shift with climate change as populations within current ranges become increasingly vulnerable to decline. Species capable of dispersing beyond their leading edges may be more likely to persist, as our evidence suggests that projected changes in climate may benefit such populations. If species are unable to disperse to new habitat on their own, assisted migration may need to be considered to prevent the widespread loss of vulnerable species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parasite damage strongly affects dynamics of boreal forests. Damage levels may be affected by climate change, either directly or indirectly through changes in properties of host trees. We examined how herbivore and pathogen damage in Alnus viridis subsp. fruticosa (Rupr.) Nym. depend on leaf morphology and chemistry, tree size, and tree neighborhood. Damage and tree properties were measured in 2003 and 2004 on eight trees at each of 20 sites in Interior Alaska. Damage varied significantly among sites and among trees within sites, but Cartesian distances between sites were not correlated with similarity in damage levels. Compared with middle leaves, terminal leaves experienced less damage from phloem-feeding insects and pathogens, whereas leaf-roller damage was largely confined to terminal leaves. Summer drought in 2004 strongly reduced damage from phloem-feeding insects, while damage from chewing insects increased. Overall, herbivore damage was best explained by leaf morphology and chemistry, and pathogen damage by the proximity of other trees; the two damage types were not correlated with each other. Reproduction was negatively correlated with herbivore damage, but positively with pathogen damage. The contrasting relationships found for individual feeding guilds suggest that they must be studied separately in assessing impacts of climate change on parasite damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenology—recurring seasonal events in an organism's life cycle—is largely driven by local climates <1 km2 (microclimates), and changes in phenology are frequently used to indicate a species' or community response to climate change. Phenological shifts can result in trophic asynchrony, population declines of higher‐level consumers, and reduction of plant fitness. While timing of phenological events is often correlated with elevation, studies have shown that microclimates created by areas of heterogeneous topography can be decoupled from regional climate patterns and that the distribution of microclimates does not always follow the elevation gradient. To examine the interaction between regional weather patterns and microclimate, and the subsequent effect of microclimate on phenology, we conducted standardized weekly spring phenology surveys of 18 native forest plants at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the Western Cascades from 2009 to 2016. We saw a high degree of inter‐annual variability of microclimate within and across sites, resulting in a changing pattern of microclimate diversity across the landscape from year to year. Most importantly, we saw that years with regional conditions predicted by continued climate change showed a loss of diversity in both microclimate and phenological events, with a more rapid advancement in bud break occurring at higher elevation sites. This study highlights the importance of understanding the interactions between regional and local processes that determine microclimate conditions and how those conditions influence patterns of plant phenology within forest communities, across mountain landscapes and over time, with implications for the capacity of mountainous regions to buffer local communities against the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]