Search

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change-related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N = 426 species) under a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Generalized linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst-case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest-dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species' ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis, we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning., (© 2017 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

Uncovering the temporal and spatial dynamics of biological communities in response to biotic and abiotic drivers is essential to predict the effects of environmental change on biodiversity. Similarly, estimating species vulnerability in the face of such dynamics is crucial for implementing effective conservation actions. We explored how bat diversity changes over the year across an altitudinal gradient and identified the environmental drivers that shape bat communities. By analysing species' marginality within the biophysical niche space, we evaluated bats' vulnerability to foreseeable environmental changes. Our results suggest that altitude, the proportion of forest cover and shrub cover are the main drivers shaping bat communities year‐round. Additionally, while some bat species are restricted to a single ecological assemblage (or ecological preferences group), others show greater plasticity throughout the year. Importantly, we found that although bats associated with highland habitats and forests could be particularly vulnerable to environmental changes (in particular Myotis mystacinus), this vulnerability correlates poorly with their national conservation status. We suggest that species' ecological plasticity is critical for the resilience of biological communities exposed to environmental changes and should be considered when planning tailored conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological conditions play a major influence on the indoor conditions of buildings, especially in southern European countries, where the hygrothermal requirements are systematically neglected, on contrast to northern European countries. Outdoor conditions will greatly differ with a building's location, even more if climate change is considered. Designing or retrofitting should take the climate requirements and, if necessary, adapt appropriately. This paper presents a methodology that can easily assess the variance of the indoor climate or even the performance of a retrofit measure in accordance with location. The methodology encompasses five steps: 1) Set meteorological data ; 2) Build outdoor weather files ; 3) Obtain interface soil/slab temperature ; 4) Obtain simulation outputs ; and 5) Build map. This methodology is flexible in terms of location/region, computational model, requirements and weather data. A model of a historic church was used to compute current and future climates' distribution for Portugal. It was shown that the indoor climates are more moderate on locations near the coast than on those in the interior of the country, and that the buffering effect is higher in the west coast than in the south coast. A significant increase in terms of indoor temperature from scenario RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5 is expected. In most of the coastal zones, an increase in RH is expected in the near future, whilst in some interior regions, a decrease is expected. Finally, it was shown that when using an adequate interpolation function, the coarser grid can correctly simulate the geographical distribution of the indoor conditions. • Proposed and implemented a flexible multi-step mapping methodology. • This tool allows to detect which locations are more susceptible to climate change. • In Portugal, the indoor temperature will increase, but relative humidity will vary. • Coarser grids can be used if they are coupled to adequate interpolation functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate change assessments are largely based on correlative species distribution models ( SDMs) that are sensible to spatial biases or incompleteness of input distribution data. We tested whether changes on the species' climatic niche resulting from recent human-induced range contractions have a significant influence on SDM predictions of future species distributions. Location Africa. Methods For this study, we selected two highly detectable species with acknowledged human-induced range contractions, namely the African savanna elephant ( Loxodonta africana) and giraffe ( Giraffa camelopardalis). We used presence data until the 1970s to describe each species' historical distribution, while more recent data characterized the contemporary distribution. We compared the temporal variation between these species distributions using multivariate analyses and the combination of four different SDM algorithms to predict historical, contemporary and future distributional ranges under climate change scenarios. Results We show how range contraction differentially reduces the climatic variability associated with the species niche and has an important influence on the predictions of suitable climatic space and species vulnerability trend under climate change scenarios. Future predictions of the distribution of the elephant were mainly affected by the loss of occupied area at the margins of the historical distributions, resulting in a lesser predicted extent when using the contemporary dataset. As for the giraffe models, there were more dramatic consequences with large areas of West Africa failing to be predicted as suitable in the contemporary models, probably as a result from the loss of climatic information due to the species almost complete disappearance from that region. Main conclusions Our findings support the importance of considering historical distributional ranges of species in climate change studies in order to account for their full climatic niche and to derive more reliable predictions of future distribution. This is particularly important in species for which distributional ranges have been strongly affected by human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Deserts and arid regions are generally perceived as bare and rather homogeneous areas of low diversity. The Sahara is the largest warm desert in the world and together with the arid Sahel displays high topographical and climatic heterogeneity, and has experienced recent and strong climatic oscillations that have greatly shifted biodiversity distribution and community composition. The large size, remoteness and long-term political instability of the Sahara- Sahel, have limited knowledge on its biodiversity. However, over the last decade, there have been an increasing number of published scientific studies based on modern geomatic and molecular tools, and broad sampling of taxa of these regions. This review tracks trends in knowledge about biodiversity patterns, processes and threats across the Sahara- Sahel, and anticipates needs for biodiversity research and conservation. Recent studies are changing completely the perception of regional biodiversity patterns. Instead of relatively low species diversity with distribution covering most of the region, studies now suggest a high rate of endemism and larger number of species, with much narrower and fragmented ranges, frequently limited to micro-hotspots of biodiversity. Molecular-based studies are also unravelling cryptic diversity associated with mountains, which together with recent distribution atlases, allows identifying integrative biogeographic patterns in biodiversity distribution. Mapping of multivariate environmental variation (at 1 km × 1 km resolution) of the region illustrates main biogeographical features of the Sahara- Sahel and supports recently hypothesised dispersal corridors and refugia. Micro-scale water-features present mostly in mountains have been associated with local biodiversity hotspots. However, the distribution of available data on vertebrates highlights current knowledge gaps that still apply to a large proportion of the Sahara- Sahel. Current research is providing insights into key evolutionary and ecological processes, including causes and timing of radiation and divergence for multiple taxa, and associating the onset of the Sahara with diversification processes for low-mobility vertebrates. Examples of phylogeographic patterns are showing the importance of allopatric speciation in the Sahara- Sahel, and this review presents a synthetic overview of the most commonly hypothesised diversification mechanisms. Studies are also stressing that biodiversity is threatened by increasing human activities in the region, including overhunting and natural resources prospection, and in the future by predicted global warming. A representation of areas of conflict, landmines, and natural resources extraction illustrates how human activities and regional insecurity are hampering biodiversity research and conservation. Although there are still numerous knowledge gaps for the optimised conservation of biodiversity in the region, a set of research priorities is provided to identify the framework data needed to support regional conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the study on how the climatic variables influence the activity and mortality of bats at wind farms in Portugal. It states that the highest level of activity and mortality happens during August to October and are highly influenced by climatic variables. The activity and mortality are related with wind speed, temperature, and humidity. The study suggests that the operations of wind turbines should be stopped whenever there are conditions leading to higher bat mortality specifically during autumn migrations.

The article presents the study on how climate change affect the 16 types of bat species in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. It states that the population of bats residing in the glacial refugia will greatly reduce which will affect their genetic variability. The bat genus Pipistrellus will benefit from the predicted climate change because they are known to adapt to a wide array of ecological conditions while Rhinopoma genus adopts to the desert and arid conditions. It also mentions that the changes in biodiversity are economically damaging.

There has been considerable recent interest concerning the impact of climate change on a wide range of taxa. However, little is known about how the biogeographic affinities of taxa may affect their responses to these impacts. Our main aim was to study how predicted climate change will affect the distribution of 28 European bat species grouped by their biogeographic patterns as determined by a spatial Principal Component Analysis. Using presence-only modelling techniques and climatic data (minimum temperature, average temperature, precipitation, humidity and daily temperature range) for four different climate change scenarios (IPCC scenarios ranging from the most extreme A1FI, A2, B2 to the least severe, B1), we predict the potential geographic distribution of bat species in Europe grouped according to their biogeographic patterns for the years 2020–2030, 2050–2060 and 2090–2100. Biogeographic patterns exert a great influence on a species' response to climate change. Bat species more associated with colder climates, hence northern latitudes, could be more severely affected with some extinctions predicted by the end of the century. The Mediterranean and Temperate groups seem to be more tolerant of temperature increases, however, their projections varied considerably under different climate change scenarios. Scenario A1FI was clearly the most detrimental for European bat diversity, with several extinctions and declines in occupied area predicted for several species. The B scenarios were less damaging and even predicted that some species could increase their geographical ranges. However, all models only took into account climatic envelopes whereas available habitat and species interactions will also probably play an important role in delimiting future distribution patterns. The models may therefore generate ‘best case’ predictions about future changes in the distribution of European bats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increases in the frequency and severity of droughts are expected in the Mediterranean region under ongoing climatic change, but their potential effects on bat populations still remain largely unstudied. Here we address this issue, by using data from a monitoring program of Tadarida teniotis to assess the reproductive consequences of a severe drought event. Unusually dry conditions occurred in the first of the 2 years under study (2012–2013), when the annual precipitation was the lowest on record during three decades, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was well below the long term median, particularly during the pre-breeding season. A total of 1304 individuals were captured between May–October 2012 and 2013, and their body condition index (BCI), gender, age, and reproductive status were assessed. In both years, the BCI of adults increased throughout the year, reaching its maximum in October. BCI in May was significantly lower in 2012 than 2013, but converged thereafter to similar values. The sex-ratio varied throughout the year, but the proportion of females was consistently higher in both years. The number of pregnant or lactating females and the proportion of juveniles were significantly lower in 2012 than in 2013. Overall, our results suggest that the drought event largely impaired the reproduction of T. teniotis , though it only affected body condition early in the pre-breeding season. Possibly, dry conditions in 2012 resulted in reduced food resources during pre-breeding, limiting individuals’ ability to restore their body condition after the winter and before breeding season. As a consequence, most individuals did not produce offspring, probably using the food resources available during the dry breeding season to restore body condition before winter. This is in line with the view that long-lived species reduce investment in reproduction to maximize adult survival during stressful periods, and suggest that multiyear droughts may result in population declines due to recurrent reproductive failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]