Search

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969-2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009-2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem.

This publication presents an innovative tower cultivation device designed to significantly increase vertical farming's efficiency. The device divides the cultivation system into separate chambers. One division corresponds to the different growth phases of the plants, while another reflects the daily variation in conditions. Each chamber presents slightly different conditions and cultivation patterns from the others. For the early stages, crops are grown horizontally in trays; once they mature, they are transplanted into mobile cultivation towers. The closed circulation of ventilation and irrigation reduces water consumption by up to 95%. A unique separate day–night division optimises light, temperature, and humidity conditions, mimicking natural growth patterns. This approach not only saves water and energy but also improves cultivation in a three-dimensional space. The presented solution focuses on the often-overlooked aspects of cultivating in vertical farms and makes this method of growing much more cost-effective and feasible to implement on a large scale. Our comparative analysis with other vertical farming solutions is based on publicly available data and provides valuable insights, while acknowledging the potential limitations at play. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water temperature is a fundamental parameter of aquatic ecosystems. It directly influences most processes occurring within them. Hence, knowledge of this parameter's behavior, based on long-term (reliable) observations, is crucial. Gaps in these observations can be filled using contemporary methodological solutions. Difficulties in reconstructing water temperature arise from the selection of an appropriate methodology, and overcoming them involves the proper selection of input data and choosing the optimal modeling approach. This study employed the air2water model and Landsat satellite imagery to reconstruct the water temperature of Lake Miedwie (the fifth largest in Poland), for which field observations conducted by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute ended in the late 1980s. The approach based on satellite images in this case yielded less accurate results than model analyses. However, it is important to emphasize the advantage of satellite images over point measurements in the spatial interpretation of lake thermal conditions. In the studied case, due to the lake's shape, the surface water layer showed no significant thermal contrasts. Based on the model data, long-term changes in water temperature were determined, which historically (1972–2023) amounted to 0.20 °C per decade. According to the adopted climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century (SSP245 and SSP585), the average annual water temperature will be higher by 1.8 °C and 3.2 °C, respectively. It should be emphasized that the current and simulated changes are unfavorable, especially considering the impact of temperature on water quality. From an economic perspective, Lake Miedwie serves as a reservoir of drinking water, and changes in the thermal regime should be considered in the management of this ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake Śniardwy is the largest among more than 7000 Polish lakes. So far, it has not been a subject of detailed investigations concerning long-term changes in water temperature or ice regime. A considerable change in thermal and ice conditions has been observed in the period 1972–2019. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.44°C dec−1 on average, and was higher than an increase in air temperature (0.33°C dec−1). In the monthly cycle, the most dynamic changes occurred in April (0.77°C dec−1). In the case of ice cover, it appeared increasingly later (5.3 days dec−1), and disappeared earlier (3.0 days dec−1). The thickness of ice cover also decreased (2.4 cm dec−1). Statistical analysis by means of a Pettitt test showed that the critical moment for the transformations of the thermal and ice regime was the end of the 1980’s. In addition to the obvious relations with air temperature for both characteristics, it was evidenced that the occurrence of ice cover depended on wind speed and snow cover. The recorded changes in the case of Lake Śniardwy are considered unfavourable, and their consequences will affect the course of physical, chemical, and biological processes in the largest lake in Poland.

The paper discusses changes in the hydrological regime of high mountain Lake Morskie Oko located in the Tatra Mountains, in the Tatra Mountains National Park, a UNESCO biosphere reserve (MaB). According to the research conducted in the years 1971–2015, its water stages decreased by 3.5 cm·dec−1, mean annual water temperature increased by 0.3°C·dec−1 and the duration of ice phenomena and ice cover was reduced by 10 day·dec−1. No considerable changes in maximum values of ice cover thickness were recorded. Such tendencies are primarily caused by long-term changes in climatic conditions – air temperature and atmospheric precipitation. The hydrological regime of the lake was also determined by changes in land use in the lake’s catchment and its location in high mountains.

Lakes are vital components of the Earth's hydrological cycle and are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Understanding the changes in terms of minimum and maximum lake surface temperatures is crucial for assessing the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems. This study focuses on ten lakes in Poland to investigate the impacts of climate change on lake temperatures in different geographical regions. The Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen tests were employed to analyze trends and changes in minimum and maximum water temperatures, respectively. The results reveal significant increases in the minimum and maximum temperatures, particularly in May and June. Different lakes exhibit varying trends and variability in temperature changes over time, indicating the vulnerability of these ecosystems. The current study also examines the magnitude of annual temperature changes and classifies them into different levels. This analysis highlights the complex relationship between air temperature, seasonal cycles, and lake morphometric characteristics in shaping variations in lake surface water temperature. These findings contribute to understanding the impacts of climate change on Poland's lakes and provide valuable insights for developing conservation strategies and adaptive measures to protect freshwater resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an assessment of water level fluctuations in eight lakes located in the Bory Tucholskie National Park (Poland). Mann-Kendall and Sen tests were applied to analyze the extent and direction of lake water level changes. For the purpose of detection of shoreline active zones, digital lake bottom models were developed based on bathymetric measurements. They were integrated with catchment digital terrain model, developed based on data from Airborne Laser Scanning. In analysed period, water levels in the majority of lakes showed a decreasing tendency, as a result of climate change. An increasing tendency was only observed for two lakes caused by the activity of beavers (castor fiber). The study permitted the identification of active shoreline zones with long-term exposure to drying and flooding. These zones are of the highest importance from the point of view of the functioning of water and water-dependent ecosystems, particularly protected species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water temperature in lakes is their basic property that determines many processes. Changes in average values are thoroughly investigated using a long-term approach. Knowledge of extreme situations such as temperature minimums is still insufficient. This paper analyses changes in the minimum temperature in 10 lakes in Poland in the period 1972–2021. The obtained results show variability over the course of the parameter, both at the annual and monthly scale. In the first case, half of the analysed set showed statistically significant increasing trends (on average 0.10 °C per decade). In the latter case, the greatest changes occurred in the months of the warm half-year (on average 0.57 °C per decade). The reported situation is caused by the individual conditions of particular lakes, i.e., their location, morphometric parameters, or the dynamics of the occurrence of ice phenomena. A successive increase in the minimum temperature in lakes has its consequences for biotic and abiotic processes. Exceeding specific thresholds results in the evident transformation of these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the impact of flow changes in the Warta River and water management rules regarding the Jeziorsko dam reservoir on the energy production by the hydropower plant in the period 1995–2021. The Jeziorsko dam reservoir was built in 1986. It is the second largest dam reservoir in Poland in terms of surface area. In 1994, a hydropower plant with an installed capacity of 4.89 MW started operation. The study results show the average annual energy production from 1995 to 2021 at a level of 18,718 MWh. On the other hand, energy production largely changed from year to year, from 12,432 MWh (in 2019) to 26,916 MWh (in 2001). The droughts that have occurred in the Warta River basin over the past two decades have had a major impact on energy production. As a consequence of the drought, it was not possible to maintain the required water level in the reservoir. Moreover, a change in the rules for the reservoir's management that led to lower water levels in the reservoir by 1.5 m between April and June was important from the point of view of energy production. Improving the efficiency of energy production requires changing the rules of water management in the reservoir. More flexible reservoir operation schemes should be considered, including operational management based on meteorological and hydrological forecasts. Moreover, other criteria should also be considered, such as maintaining environmental flows, ensuring protection from flooding, and operating a nature reserve around the reservoir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The progressing development of civilisation and climate change require access to an appropriate quantity of environmental resources. One of the key resources is water. Both its deficit and excess evidently affect human life. Control over water circulation is possible owing to water management, largely involving introduction of hydraulic structures. The paper analyses the effect of the Jeziorsko dam reservoir on the flows of the Warta River, the third largest river in Poland. It analyses water flows in the Warta River in the years 1993–2020 for hydrological stations above and below the reservoir. The conducted research showed that the construction of the Jeziorsko reservoir also substantially contributed to an increase in minimum flows and a decrease in maximum flows. Moreover, the simulation showed that in the case of abscence of the reservoir, the flows of the Warta River would be higher in the period from January to June, and in the period from July to October the opposite situation would occur. In November and December, the flows would be at a similar level. Results obtained in the study, show that hydraulic structures are an effective solution in the context of stabilisation of the hydrological situation in a given region, particularly in terms of hydrological lows occurring with increasing intensity mitigated on sections of rivers below the reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Successively conducted monitoring and inspections allow for the detection of emerging issues and their elimination. The objective of this study is the analysis of the administrative procedures related to the monitoring of the technical condition of small hydraulic structures in Poland. The case study of the Oświecim Weir on the Prosna River presents the parameters subject to assessment and further activities aimed at the elimination of the detected defects. The obtained results showed damage to its concrete structures, including cracks and cavities. The undertaken activities related to the complete remodelling of the Oświecim Weir and the incurred costs generally result from the environmental conditions (water flows in the Prosna River), directly causing the necessity for the stabilisation of water conditions in the area. In the context of the observed climatic changes, the problem is faced by more and more regions around the globe. The proper technical condition of hydraulic structures, resulting from diligent monitoring, provides the basis for the mitigation of this unfavourable situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: River damming inevitably reshapes water thermal conditions that are important to the general health of river ecosystems. Although a lot of studies have addressed the damming's thermal impacts, most of them just assess the overall effects of climate variation and human activities on river thermal dynamics. Less attention has been given to quantifying the impact of climate variation, damming and flow regulation, respectively. In addition, for rivers that have already faced an erosion problem in downstream channels, an adjustment of the hydroelectric power plant operation manner is expected, which reinforces the need for understanding of flow regulation's thermal impact. To fill this gap, an air2stream-based approach is proposed and applied at the Włocławek Reservoir in the Vistula River in Poland. Results: In the years of 1952–1983, downstream river water temperature rose by 0.31 ℃ after damming. Meanwhile, the construction of dam increased the average annual water temperature by 0.55 ℃, while climate change oppositely made it decreased by 0.26 ℃. In addition, for the seasonal impact of damming, autumn was the most affected season with the warming reached 1.14 ℃, and the least affected season was winter when water temperature experienced a warming of 0.1 ℃. The absolute values of seasonal average temperature changes due to flow regulation were less than 0.1 ℃ for all the seasons. Conclusions: The impacts of climate variation, damming, and flow regulation on river water temperatures can be evaluated reasonably on the strength of the proposed methodology. Climate variation and damming led to general opposite impacts on the downstream water temperature at the Włocławek Reservoir before 1980s. It is noted that the climate variation impact showed an opposite trend compared to that after 1980s. Besides, flow regulation below dam hardly affected downstream river water temperature variation. This study extends the current knowledge about impacts of climate variation and hydromorphological conditions on river water temperature, with a study area where river water temperature is higher than air temperature throughout a year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents changes in the ice regime of lakes located in the northern part of Poland. It has been established that in the period 1960–2019, there was a successive decline in the ice extent of lakes, clearly visible in individual parameters; formation of ice cover is delayed by 3.0 days/decade (on average for all lakes), its decline occurred earlier by 3.8 days/decade, and the length of ice cover is shorter by 6.8 days/decade. Moreover, the maximum thickness of the ice cover is becoming thinner, and this process has progressed at an average rate of 2.3 cm/decade. The aforementioned situation shows strong relations with air temperature. It was particularly evident in the late 1980s, when a change in the thermal regime took place, which was documented in most of the analysed parameters, as demonstrated in the study. It has been established that from that period up to now, the decline of ice cover tends to start 19 days earlier, the duration of ice cover is shorter by 22 days, and the ice cover is 8 cm thinner, on average. The observed transformation affects the imbalance of the existing equilibrium in lakes, which can be related to both biotic and abiotic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study presents changes in the elements of the hydrological regime of Lake Hańcza in the period 1960–2019, including water temperature, ice cover characteristics and water level. It was determined that statistically significant changes resulted in an increase in water temperature (0.11°C·dec−1), a decrease in maximum ice thickness (5 cm·dec−1) and an increase in water levels (6.7 cm·dec−1). Changes in water temperature and ice cover in the analysed case are different from those in other lakes of the region. As the tests conducted in this study and in previous research have shown, the lake has resisted global warming for a relatively long time, and the change in thermal conditions occurred a decade later than in other lakes in this part of Europe. The analysed case leads to the conclusion that the morphometric features of lakes significantly modify the influence of overriding factors, such as climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969–2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009–2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of time-related changes in maximum temperatures in lakes. The analysis was carried out on the basis of 9 lakes located in the northern part of Poland. The analysis was based on daily water and air temperatures in the period 1971–2015. Mann–Kendall's and Sen's tests were applied to determine the directions and rates of change of maximum air and water temperatures. The average increase of maximum water temperature in analysed lakes was found to be 0.39 °C dec–1, while the warming trend of the maximum air temperature was 0.48 °C dec–1. Cluster analysis (CA) was used to group lakes characterised by similar changes of maximum water temperature. The first group included five lakes in which the values of the maximum temperature trends were 0.41 °C dec–1. In the second cluster the average value of maximum water temperature increase was smaller than in the first cluster (0.36 °C dec–1). Comparing the results of cluster analysis with morphometric data show that in the first cluster lakes are having a greater average depth, maximum depth and water transparency in comparison to the lakes of the second cluster. The study showed significant changes in the maximum annual water temperatures in post-glacial lakes located in Poland in the years 1971-2015. The highest rate of increase in monthly maximum water temperature was recorded in April and the lowest in January and February. The value of maximum water temperature trends was lower than annual air temperature trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus is the property of Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Rolniczego im. Hugona Kollataja w Krakowie and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Dissolved oxygen in water (DO) is one of the primary parameters determining its quality. It remains in close relation to water temperature. The article presents results of DO and water temperature measurements performed for five stratified lakes in Poland in the years 2007-2014. The measurements were performed with monthly frequency in the summer half-year (May-October) in the deepest place of each of the lakes. The compared data show the complex character of the course of both of the parameters. The analysis of depth profiles revealed the prevalence of a decreasing tendency, or no tendency was recorded - both in the case of DO and water temperature. Due to the incoherent character of the water in the case of stratified lakes, a more detailed comparison was performed, referring to changes occurring in zones developed during summer stratification. It was determined that the temperature of the epilimnion was directly dependent on air temperature, and in all cases it showed an increasing tendency. Simultaneously, along with an increase in temperature, in the majority of cases, DO concentration in the zone decreased. In reference to the waters of the hypolimnion, increasing, decreasing, and no tendencies were recorded. The above distribution is determined by individual factors of the lakes - morphometry, trophic status, groundwater alimentation, etc. Several years of measurements of DO and water temperature in depth profiles of several lakes in Poland constitute valuable information on the current transformations of the environment of this part of Europe. In the future, the information can provide the basis for long-term analyses over the next decades, enriching global knowledge on those parameters of key importance for water ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents thermal-oxygen conditions of Lake Białe Włodawskie in the warm half-year (May-October) in the years 2012-2015. Due to its morphometric parameters, summer stratification develops in the lake. In the period analysed in the paper, the highest temperature was recorded in July 2012 (27.5°C), and the lowest at the bottom in May 2013 (4.2°C). The highest difference in temperature throughout the water column was recorded during measurements in July 2012. It amounted to 22.7°C (27.5°C at the surface and 4.8°C at the bottom). The highest mean temperature throughout the water column (determined as the mean from all of the analysed months) occurred in 2015 (9.7°C), and the lowest in 2013 (7.8°C). The highest water temperature corresponded to the highest air temperature for station Włodawa, located several kilometres north of the lake. The mean concentration of oxygen dissolved in water (as the mean from all of the analysed months) suggests that the highest value 4.7 [mgO2 · dm-3] occurred in 2012, and the lowest 3.0 [mgO2 · dm-3] in 2013. In vertical distribution, the maximum oxygen concentration amounted to 13.5 [mgO2 · dm-3] in May 2013, and the minimum value decreased to zero multiple times. Complete lack of oxygen occurred each time in August, September, and October. It appeared the earliest in June 2013 (at a depth of 26 m), and the latest in August 2015 (at a depth of 28 m). The thickest water layer without oxygen was recorded in August 2013 already at a depth of 11 m. The studied lake is prone to strong anthropopressure. Due to favourable morphometric parameters and high resistance to degradation, however, it still maintains its high recreational values, although such a state may change in the near future in the context of increasing anthropopressure and observed climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the variation in the accumulated heat content of the alpine-type lake Morskie Oko in the highest mountain range of the Carpathians -- the Tatras. The analysis was based on detailed water temperature measurements carried out in 2007 at the deepest site of the lake. Additionally, the changeability of heat content in 1973-2012 was assessed using measurements performed at one site near the shore at a depth of 0.4 m. The highest and the lowest values of accumulated heat content were recorded in August and February, which is typical for lakes in intermediate latitudes. The monthly average accumulated heat content in the studied year amounted to 186,830 GJ. Long-term dynamics of heat content indicated an upward trend, particularly from the late 1990s, which was closely connected with an increase in air temperature. This investigation indicated that mountain lakes -- commonly regarded as cool -- may be a potential source of "clean" energy in hard-to-reach terrain (e.g., for the needs of mountain refuges, holiday camps, etc.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the thermal characteristics of lakes in Poland. In the analysis, the use was made of monthly air temperatures recorded at fifteen meteorological stations, water temperatures of twelve lakes, and Hurrell's winter NAO indices. Over the study period (1971-2010), there was a marked increase in the temperatures of both, air and lake waters. Depending on the NAO phase, water temperatures were observed to depart from mean values, being markedly higher than average (even by 1°C) in the positive winter NAO phase. The differences in water temperatures were statistically significant in the winter-spring season. In turn, in the negative NAODJFM phase lake water temperatures in winter and spring were markedly lower than average (in March even by 1.0°C). The unique response of some lakes depends on their morphometric parameters, including their mean depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Climate change results in a decrease of the ice cover and duration in Northern Hemisphere lakes. • Warming resulted in ice decline and will continue to negatively affect lake ice in the future. • Strong autumnal winds can accelerate ice formation but this effect apparently depends on the mixing. • Rainfalls either enhance freezing in fall or accelerate ice-loss in spring. • Under continuous emissions lakes will further lose their ice and experience ice-free winters more frequently. Northern Hemisphere lakes are losing their ice cover due to climate change. Here we explored six decades of observational data (1961–2017) showing trends in air temperature, wind speed and precipitation over northern Poland, as well as changes in the ice conditions for five lakes with different morphometry. We evaluated whether and to what extent climatic effects, including atmospheric warming, changing wind speed and rainfall during fall and winter, influence ice conditions in morphometrically different lakes in Northern Poland. Our analysis demonstrated that ice cover duration and thickness decreased at rates of 5.4 days decade−1 and 2.5 cm decade−1, respectively. Ice conditions were influenced (65–75%) by the direct effects of air temperature change and to some extent by an interaction of warming with wind speed and precipitation (5–10%). While stronger autumnal winds result in longer ice cover duration, the effect of precipitation is bimodal with either an enhancement of ice formation by autumnal rain or accelerated ice loss during spring. To project future changes in ice conditions, we used a 1D hydrodynamic lake model forced with four climate model projections under low, medium and high Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our simulations demonstrate that current ice conditions will stabilize under the low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) but decrease under both the medium and high emission scenarios (RCP 6.0 and 8.5). During the 21st century, the lakes are projected to lose their ice at a rate between 4.5- and 10-days decade−1 and ice thickness will decrease by between 3.0 and 5.0 cm decade−1. The rate of change will be greater in smaller rather than larger lakes and more so for those situated further inland. The probability of ice-free winters will increase for all lakes and among all future scenarios by between 4 and 69% with the highest potential frequency of ice-free winters in smaller and deeper but relatively wind-exposed lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents long-term changes in water temperature in two rivers, Oder and Neman, with catchments showing different climatic conditions (with dominance of marine climate in the case of the Oder and continental climate in the case of the Neman River). A statistically significant increase in mean annual water temperature was recorded for four observation stations, ranging from 0.17 to 0.39 °C dec−1. At the seasonal scale, for the winter half-year, water temperature increase varied from 0.17 to 0.26 °C dec−1, and for the summer half-year from 0.17 to 0.50 °C dec−1. In three cases (Odra-Brzeg, Odra-Słubice, Niemen-Grodno), the recorded changes referred to the scale of changes in air temperature. For the fourth station on Neman (Smalininkai), an increase in water temperature in the river was considerably slower than air temperature increase. It should be associated with the substantial role of local conditions (non-climatic) affecting the thermal regime in that profile. Short-term forecast of changes in water temperature showed its further successive increase, a situation unfavorable for the functioning of these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study evaluated the effect of environmental conditions and morphometric parameters on lake water temperature changes. The analysis was carried out on the basis of 14 lakes located in northern Poland. The assessment was based on the daily water and air temperatures from 1972 to 2016. It took into account the location of lakes (latitude, longitude, altitude) morphometric parameters (surface area, maximum and mean depth, volume), hydrological processes (rate of water exchange, course of ice phenomena), and trophic status (water transparency) as factors that can modify lake water temperature changes. Direction and rate of air and water temperature changes were analysed by means of Mann–Kendall’s and Sen’s tests. Cluster analysis (CA) was applied to group lakes characterised by similar water temperature changes. The effect of climatic and non-climatic parameters on a lake’s water temperature was assessed on the basis of principal component analysis (PCA). Water temperatures in the lakes in the years 1972–2016 were characterised by a higher rate of increase of 0.43 °C·dec−1 than the air temperature decrease of 0.34 °C·dec−1. The analysis showed a faster rate of heating of waters in western Poland. This can be explained by shorter duration of ice cover. Moreover, the changes of water temperature were affected by other factors, including the location of the lakes, their morphometric parameters, wind speed, water transparency and water exchange time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The model performs good in capturing the seasonal pattern and peak values of river water temperature. • Air temperature and day of year are the major factorson modeling river water temperature. • The model is a promising tool to investigate the impact of climate change on river thermal dynamics. Water temperature is an important physical indicator of rivers because it impacts many other physical and biogeochemical processes and controls the metabolism of aquatic species in rivers. Having a good knowledge of river thermal dynamics is of great importance. In this study, an advanced machine learning based model that is fast, accurate and easy to use, namely the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network, was coupled with Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm for optimizing the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm for the NARX training, to forecast daily river water temperatures (RWT). Long-term observed data from 18 rivers of the Vistula River Basin, one of the largest rivers in Europe, were used for model testing, and model performance was compared with the air2stream model. The results showed that the NARX-based model performs significantly better than the air2stream model in the calibration and validation stages, and can better capture the seasonal pattern and peak values of RWT. Input combinations impact the performance of the NARX-based model in RWT modeling, and air temperature and the day of the year (DOY) are the major inputs, while streamflow and rainfall play a minor role on modeling RWT at the Vistula River Basin. Considering that future times series of air temperatures are easily accessible from climate models and DOY is easy to be considered in the model, the NARX-based model can serve as a promising tool to investigate the impact of climate change on river thermal dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]