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The question of how to derive and present uncertainty information in climate data records (CDRs) has received sustained attention within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (CCI), a programme to generate CDRs addressing a range of essential climate variables (ECVs) from satellite data. Here, we review the nature, mathematics, practicalities, and communication of uncertainty information in CDRs from Earth observations. This review paper argues that CDRs derived from satellite-based Earth observation (EO) should include rigorous uncertainty information to support the application of the data in contexts such as policy, climate modelling, and numerical weather prediction reanalysis. Uncertainty, error, and quality are distinct concepts, and the case is made that CDR products should follow international metrological norms for presenting quantified uncertainty. As a baseline for good practice, total standard uncertainty should be quantified per datum in a CDR, meaning that uncertainty estimates should clearly discriminate more and less certain data. In this case, flags for data quality should not duplicate uncertainty information, but instead describe complementary information (such as the confidence in the uncertainty estimate provided or indicators of conditions violating the retrieval assumptions). The paper discusses the many sources of error in CDRs, noting that different errors may be correlated across a wide range of timescales and space scales. Error effects that contribute negligibly to the total uncertainty in a single-satellite measurement can be the dominant sources of uncertainty in a CDR on the large space scales and long timescales that are highly relevant for some climate applications. For this reason, identifying and characterizing the relevant sources of uncertainty for CDRs is particularly challenging. The characterization of uncertainty caused by a given error effect involves assessing the magnitude of the effect, the shape of the error distribution, and the propagation of the uncertainty to the geophysical variable in the CDR accounting for its error correlation properties. Uncertainty estimates can and should be validated as part of CDR validation when possible. These principles are quite general, but the approach to providing uncertainty information appropriate to different ECVs is varied, as confirmed by a brief review across different ECVs in the CCI. User requirements for uncertainty information can conflict with each other, and a variety of solutions and compromises are possible. The concept of an ensemble CDR as a simple means of communicating rigorous uncertainty information to users is discussed. Our review concludes by providing eight concrete recommendations for good practice in providing and communicating uncertainty in EO-based climate data records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obtaining stable and accurate satellite radiances for climate change research requires extremely high standards for satellite calibration. Many satellite sensors do not currently meet the accuracy criteria, especially heritage sensors such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which shows scene temperature-dependent trends and biases of up to 0.5 K. Recently, however, a detailed study of the AVHRR/3 prelaunch data showed significant problems with both the calibration algorithm and the prelaunch data and indicated that the inherent accuracy of the AVHRR may actually be quite high. A new approach has been suggested that fixed many of the issues with the current (operational) calibration, but has not yet been applied to the in-orbit case. In this paper the behavior of the AVHRR in orbit is examined and compared to the operational AVHRR radiances from the Meteorological Operation ( MetOp)- A with those based on the new calibration to radiances derived from the Infrared Atmosphere Sounding Instrument (IASI). It is shown that the current AVHRR calibration does indeed introduce large (0.5 K) biases, but these biases are remarkably stable. It is further shown that, with some modification related to differences between the prelaunch test environment and the in-orbit environment, a physically based AVHRR calibration can match IASI to better than ~0.05 K, which is an order of magnitude better than what is currently available. Finally, it is shown that, while the new calibration is capable of providing accurate and stable radiances for the nadir view, off-nadir biases of up to 1.5 K still exist at the largest zenith angles and at the coldest scene temperatures (~210 K). For surface temperature determination, however, the scan angle bias is very small (<0.02 K), implying that the new AVHRR calibration will provide a significant improvement to, for example, sea surface temperature measurements, one of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)-designated essential climate variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The AVHRR aerosol optical depth (AOD) is inverted from measured reflectances in the red band using a statistical correlation of surface reflectance with mid-infrared channel reflectances and a modelling climatology of the aerosol type. For such a sensor not specifically designed for AOD retrieval, propagating uncertainties is crucial because the sensitivity of the retrieved AOD to the measured signal varies largely with retrieval conditions (AOD itself, surface brightness, aerosol optical properties/aerosol type, observing geometry). In order to quantify the different contributions to the AOD uncertainties, we have undertaken a thorough analysis of the retrieval operator and its sensitivities to the used input and auxiliary variables. Uncertainties are then propagated from measured reflectances to geophysical retrieved AOD datasets at the super-pixel level and further to gridded daily and monthly products. The propagation uses uncertainty correlations of separate uncertainty contributions from the FIDUCEO easyFCDR level1b products (common fully correlated, independent random, and structured parts) and estimated uncertainty correlation structures of other major effects in the retrieval (surface brightness, aerosol type ensemble, cloud mask). The pixel-level uncertainties are statistically validated against true error estimates versus AERONET ground-based AOD measurements. It is shown that a 10-year time record over Europe compares well to a merged multi-satellite record and that pixel-level uncertainties provide a meaningful representation of error distributions. The study demonstrates the benefits of new recipes for uncertainty characterization from the Horizon-2020 project FIDUCEO ("Fidelity and uncertainty in climate data records from Earth Observations") and extends them further with recent additions developed within the ESA Climate Change Initiative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fundamental and thematic climate data records derived from satellite observations provide unique information for climate monitoring and research. Since any satellite only operates over a relatively short period of time, creating a climate data record also requires the combination of space-borne measurements from a series of several (often similar) satellite sensors. Simply combining calibrated measurements from several sensors can, however, produce an inconsistent climate data record. This is particularly true of older, historic sensors whose behaviour in space was often different from their behaviour during pre-launch calibration and more scientific value can be derived from considering the series of historical and present satellites as a whole. Here, we consider harmonisation as a process that obtains new calibration coefficients for revised sensor calibration models by comparing calibrated measurements over appropriate satellite-to-satellite matchups, such as simultaneous nadir overpasses and which reconciles the calibration of different sensors given their estimated spectral response function differences. We present the concept of a framework that establishes calibration coefficients and their uncertainty and error covariance for an arbitrary number of sensors in a metrologically-rigorous manner. We describe harmonisation and its mathematical formulation as an inverse problem that is extremely challenging when some hundreds of millions of matchups are involved and the errors of fundamental sensor measurements are correlated. We solve the harmonisation problem as marginalised errors in variables regression. The algorithm involves computation of first and second-order partial derivatives using Algorithmic Differentiation. Finally, we present re-calibrated radiances from a series of nine Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensors showing that the new time series has smaller matchup differences compared to the unharmonised case while being consistent with uncertainty statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision makers need accessible robust evidence to introduce new policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. There is an increasing amount of environmental information available to policy makers concerning observations and trends relating to the climate. However, this data is hosted across a multitude of websites often with inconsistent metadata and sparse information relating to the quality, accuracy and validity of the data. Subsequently, the task of comparing datasets to decide which is the most appropriate for a certain purpose is very complex and often infeasible. In support of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) mission to provide authoritative information about the past, present and future climate in Europe and the rest of the world, each dataset to be provided through this service must undergo an evaluation of its climate relevance and scientific quality to help with data comparisons. This paper presents the framework for Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC) of climate data products derived from satellite and in situ observations to be catalogued within the C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). The EQC framework will be implemented by C3S as part of their operational quality assurance programme. It builds on past and present international investment in Quality Assurance for Earth Observation initiatives, extensive user requirements gathering exercises, as well as a broad evaluation of over 250 data products and a more in-depth evaluation of a selection of 24 individual data products derived from satellite and in situ observations across the land, ocean and atmosphere Essential Climate Variable (ECV) domains. A prototype Content Management System (CMS) to facilitate the process of collating, evaluating and presenting the quality aspects and status of each data product to data users is also described. The development of the EQC framework has highlighted cross-domain as well as ECV specific science knowledge gaps in relation to addressing the quality of climate data sets derived from satellite and in situ observations. We discuss 10 common priority science knowledge gaps that will require further research investment to ensure all quality aspects of climate data sets can be ascertained and provide users with the range of information necessary to confidently select relevant products for their specific application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]