1. Potential distributional changes of invasive crop pest species associated with global climate change
- Author
-
Yi-Chen Wang, Chen-Chieh Feng, Peng-Hui Maffee Wan, Klarissa Chang, and Yingwei Yan
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Ecological niche ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Global warming ,Climate change ,Forestry ,Biology ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Poikilotherm ,Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management ,Precipitation ,PEST analysis ,Species richness ,Mean radiant temperature ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
This study investigated the potential global distributional shifts of poikilothermic invasive crop pest species associated with climate change, aiming to understand if their overall global distributions will expand or contract, and how the species distributions will vary across different regions. An ecological niche modelling analysis was conducted for 76 species. The potential distributional changes of the species in 2050 and 2070 were scrutinized for two climate change scenarios, which were further examined across different temperature and precipitation ranges. Results showed that averages of the mean probabilities of presence of the 76 crop pest species were predicted to increase. Higher species turnovers were predicted mostly to occur in areas with increasing predicted species richness. Lower species turnovers, however, were predicted mostly to occur in areas with decreasing predicted species richness. Species richness increases were predicted to occur more often in currently lower temperature (annual mean temperature approximately
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF