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Marine primary producers are largely dependent on and shape the Earth's climate, although their relationship with climate varies over space and time. The growth of phytoplankton and associated marine primary productivity in most of the modern global ocean is limited by the supply of nutrients, including the micronutrient iron. The addition of iron via episodic and frequent events drives the biological carbon pump and promotes the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) into the ocean. However, the dependence between iron and marine primary producers adaptively changes over different geological periods due to the variation in global climate and environment. In this review, we examined the role and importance of iron in modulating marine primary production during some specific geological periods, that is, the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) during the Huronian glaciation, the Snowball Earth Event during the Cryogenian, the glacial–interglacial cycles during the Pleistocene, and the period from the last glacial maximum to the late Holocene. Only the change trend of iron bioavailability and climate in the glacial–interglacial cycles is consistent with the Iron Hypothesis. During the GOE and the Snowball Earth periods, although the bioavailability of iron in the ocean and the climate changed dramatically, the changing trend of many factors contradicted the Iron Hypothesis. By detangling the relationship among marine primary productivity, iron availability and oceanic environments in different geological periods, this review can offer some new insights for evaluating the impact of ocean iron fertilization on removing CO2 from the atmosphere and regulating the climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-term increase in coccolith size over the Pleistocene has long been discovered in global oceans. Such a long-term and evolutionary change is expected to exert substantial impact on the carbon cycle as coccolithophores are one of the major components of marine carbonate counter pump (CCP). Here, we present coccolith morphological data as well as coccolith calcite export at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1143 in the South China Sea over the past 2 Myr. The results confirm the idea that Earth eccentricity controlled coccolith size diversity and calcite export production in tropical oceans in the Pleistocene. In addition, we consider a possible origin of the long-term increase in coccolith size as a result of increased oceanic alkalinity availability. As coccolithophores evolved simultaneously in global oceans, the increased coccolith calcification may have promoted global marine particulate inorganic carbon production, especially for the interglacial stages. Therefore, the enhanced coccolith-based CCP may account for a stepwise increase in interglacial CO 2 levels over the middle Pleistocene. High CO 2 levels at the onset of the interglacial stages may reduce the glaciation rate, thereby prolonging an entire interglacial-glacial cycle after the middle Pleistocene. • Long-term increase in coccolith size can result from increased availability of oceanic alkalinity. • Long-term increase in coccolith size may promote global PIC production over the Pleistocene. • Increased coccolith calcification may account for a long-term interglacial CO 2 change over the MPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primary productivity (PP) and phytoplankton structure play an important role in regulating oceanic carbon cycle. The unique seasonal circulation and upwelling pattern of the South China Sea (SCS) provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the response of nutrients and phytoplankton dynamics to climate variation. In this study, we used a three-dimensional (3D) physical-biogeochemical coupled model to simulate nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, PP, and functional groups in the SCS from 1958 to 2009. The modeled results showed that the annual mean carbon composition of small phytoplankton, diatoms, and coccolithophores was 33.7, 52.7, and 13.6 %, respectively. Diatoms showed a higher seasonal variability than small phytoplankton and coccolithophores. Diatoms were abundant during winter in most areas of the SCS except for the offshore of southeastern Vietnam, where diatom blooms occurred in both summer and winter. Higher values of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores occurred mostly in summer. Our modeled results indicated that the seasonal variability of PP was driven by the East Asian Monsoon. The northeast winter monsoon results in more nutrients in the offshore area of the northwestern Luzon Island and the Sunda Shelf, while the southwest summer monsoon drives coastal upwelling to bring sufficient nutrients to the offshore area of southeastern Vietnam. The modeled PP was correlated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the interannual scale. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño conditions) corresponded to lower PP and the negative phase of ENSO (La Niña conditions) corresponded to higher PP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The equatorial Pacific underwent a significant climate transition during the late Pliocene, which is characterized by cooling of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and formation of a marked SST gradient between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific. Moreover, this transition was nearly synchronous with the late Pliocene Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Probing the relationship among solar insolation, low and high latitude processes is the key to unravel the mechanism of this climate transition. A series of statistical methods were used in this study to analyze the orbital components of the equatorial Pacific SST and global ice volume records for the past 5 Ma. We found that integrated solar insolation rather than the monthly mean insolation is the primary external forcing of the late Pliocene climate transition, and that on orbital time scale the SSTs of the eastern and western equatorial Pacific display consistent change rather than a "seesaw" pattern. Changes of Earth's orbital configuration have been responsible for this climate transition whereas the feedback effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration have further cooled the global climate since the early Cenozoic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, forecast skill over four different periods of global climate change (1982–1999, 1984–1996, 2000–2018, and 2000–2014) is examined using the hindcasts of five models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble. The deterministic evaluation shows that the forecasting skills of the Niño3.4 and Niño3 indexes are much lower during 2000–2018 than during 1982–1999, indicating that the previously reported decline in forecasting skill continues through 2018. The decreases in skill are most significant for the target months from May to August, especially for medium to long lead times, showing that the forecasts suffer more from the effect of the spring predictability barrier (SPB) post-2000. Relationships between the extratropical Pacific signal and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weakened after 2000, contributing to a reduction in inherent predictability and skills of ENSO, which may be connected with the forecasting skills decline for medium to long lead times. It is a great challenge to predict ENSO using the memory of the local ocean itself because of the weakening intensity of the warm water volume (WWV) and its relationship with ENSO. These changes lead to a significant decrease in the autocorrelation coefficient of the persistence forecast for short to medium lead months. Moreover, for both the Niño3.4 and Niño3 indexes, after 2000, the models tend to further underestimate the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the El Niño developing year but overestimate them in the decaying year. For the probabilistic forecast, the skills post-2000 are also generally lower than pre-2000 in the tropical Pacific, and in particular, they decayed east of 120° W after 2000. Thus, the advantages of different methods, such as dynamic modeling, statistical methods, and machine learning methods, should be integrated to obtain the best applicability to ENSO forecasts and to deal with the current low forecasting skill phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global climate change, ocean iron fertilization (OIF) has been suggested as a potential geoengineering strategy to enhance the growth of marine phytoplankton, subsequently promote the ocean carbon sink, and ultimately regulate atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) and mitigate climate change. However, in past artificial OIF experiments, the elevation of both net primary production and carbon export to the deep ocean is far less than anticipated. This discrepancy can be attributed to several key factors that strongly influence the efficiency of OIF and biological carbon pump (BCP) including iron bioavailability and retention time, the sensitivity of phytoplankton to iron limitation, the influence of viruses and other microorganisms comprising the microbial carbon pump (MCP), and non-biological carbon cycles. Although previous reviews have extensively summarized the outcomes of the past OIF experiments, the mechanisms and key factors that influence climate regulation mediated by OIF have not been elucidated. In this review, we analyze these mechanisms throughout the whole process from OIF, to phytoplankton physiological responses, to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and sequestration in the ocean, and ultimately to CDR in the atmosphere and its impact on climate change. By examining both natural and artificial OIF cases, as well as recent advancements in phytoplankton physiological ecology and carbon pump theory, possible reasons leading to the inconsistencies between OIF and carbon export are explored. These comprehensive analyses are helpful to identify the key issues in regulating climate change by providing a reference and scientific approach to guide potential OIF attempts in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric CO 2 and global climate are closely coupled. Since 800 ka CO 2 concentrations have been up to 50% higher during interglacial compared to glacial periods. Because of its dependence on temperature, humidity, and erosion rates, chemical weathering of exposed silicate minerals was suggested to have dampened these cyclic variations of atmospheric composition. Cooler and drier conditions and lower non-glacial erosion rates suppressed in situ chemical weathering rates during glacial periods. However, using systematic variations in major element geochemistry, Sr–Nd isotopes and clay mineral records from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1143 and 1144 in the South China Sea spanning the last 1.1 Ma, we show that sediment deposited during glacial periods was more weathered than sediment delivered during interglacials. We attribute this to subaerial exposure and weathering of unconsolidated shelf sediments during glacial sealevel lowstands. Our estimates suggest that enhanced silicate weathering of tropical shelf sediments exposed during glacial lowstands can account for ∼9% of the carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere during the glacial and thus represent a significant part of the observed glacial–interglacial variation of ∼80 ppmv. As a result, if similar magnitudes can be identified in other tropical shelf-slope systems, the effects of increased sediment exposure and subsequent silicate weathering during lowstands could have potentially enhanced the drawdown of atmospheric CO 2 during cold stages of the Quaternary. This in turn would have caused an intensification of glacial cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]