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In most countries, weather and seasonal climate forecasts are available through national meteorological services (NMSs). However, uptake of NMS forecasts in remote Pacific communities can be limited, particularly those relating to expected impacts. To address this, NMSs need a clearer understanding of the types of information local communities currently use and how this information is received, to enable them to modify their products and their delivery to better meet community needs. Structured community interviews across four Pacific countries (Niue, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu) were undertaken by NMSs and their in-country partners. These interviews highlighted that remote communities mainly relied on weather and climate forecasts based on traditional knowledge (TK) alone or in combination with contemporary (NMS) forecasts. Many who had access to both forecasts systems indicated that they only sourced contemporary forecasts in the lead up to and during extreme events, particularly cyclones, to assist their decision-making. Recent extreme events in the Pacific have shown that self-reliant communities, with knowledge of traditional ways of forecasting, and responding to climate extremes, experience several benefits including reduced social-economic disruption and lower than expected death rates, particularly when combined with contemporary warnings. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the role of local traditional knowledge-based forecasts and for NMSs to work towards improving the content and communication of their forecasts to enable communities to take advantage of all available forecast information. For effective risk reduction, warnings and responses should therefore complement contemporary forecasts, rather than replace, TK-based forecasts.

Designing monitoring programs to detect impending climate change effects on marine vertebrates is challenging, as data sufficient for large-scale power analysis is severely limited, yet sensitivity and response time of potential indicator variables are key uncertainties. In the absence of such data, the experience of researchers can be used to inform decision making on monitoring design to detect impacts of climate change. We used expert elicitation to identify ecological traits of seabirds and marine mammals that have or were expected to respond to climate change. We analyzed the projected biological changes for five general categories of ecological traits that have been shown elsewhere to relate to climate signals: foraging and diet, body mass, breeding phenology, breeding success, and population size. Based on analysis of 106 traits in the five categories, 29 experts rated foraging- and diet-related traits to be the most responsive to climate change, although predictions for traits in this category were also the most variable across experts. Body mass related traits were projected to change almost as frequently, but with much lower variance. The timespan over which experts expected to see change also varied between trait categories. Foraging success was expected to respond most quickly. Considering sensitivity and response rate, we predict that the duration of foraging trips will be the best climate change indicator among the 106 traits. When combined with cost estimates, our results allow managers to choose ecological indicators that deliver information on system response in the most cost-effective manner.

Long-term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are still scarce and often incomplete, challenging adaptation planning and conservation management. Biological data are probably most limited in arid countries and from the oceans, where natural environmental variability (‘noise’) means that long time series are required to detect the ‘signal’ of directional change. Significant national and international investment and collaboration are needed for most southern nations to reliably track biodiversity trends and improve conservation adaptation to rapid climate change. Emerging early warning systems for biodiversity, incorporating regional environmental change drivers, citizen science and regional partnerships, can all help to compensate for existing information gaps and contribute to adaptation planning.

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. We introduce the uniquely cloud-based Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), which provides access to numerous species distribution modelling tools; a large and growing collection of biological, climate, and other environmental datasets; and a variety of experiment types to conduct research into the impact of climate change on biodiversity.Users can upload and share datasets, potentially increasing collaboration, cross-fertilisation of ideas, and innovation among the user community. Feedback confirms that the BCCVL's goals of lowering the technical requirements for species distribution modelling, and reducing time spent on such research, are being met. BCCVL facilitates and expedites modelling of climate change's impact on biodiversity.BCCVL integrates numerous species distribution modelling tools and myriad datasets.BCCVL negates the need for advanced programming and modelling expertise.BCCVL allows for increases in productivity and complexity of experimental design.BCCVL facilitates the sharing of data promoting transparency in the research process.

Adaptation options in response to climate impact scenarios for marine mammals and seabirds were developed based on the IPCC vulnerability framework. Under this framework, vulnerability to the physical effects of climate change can be reduced by adaptation options that reduce exposure of individuals, reduce the sensitivity of individuals, and increase the adaptive capacity of individual/species to cope with climate change. We evaluated options in each vulnerability category with three screening tools collectively forming an approach we term sequential adaptation prioritization for species. These tools were designed to evaluate (i) technical aspects (cost-benefit-risk, CBR), (ii) institutional barriers, and (iii) potential social acceptability. The CBR tool identified which adaptation options were high cost and low benefit, might be discarded, and which were high benefit and low cost, might be rapidly implemented (depending on risk). Low cost and low benefit options might not be pursued, while those that are high cost, but high benefit deserve further attention. Even with technical merit, adaptation options can fail because of institutional problems with implementation. The second evaluation tool, based on the conceptual framework on barriers to effective climate adaptation, identifies where barriers may exist, and leads to strategies for overcoming them. Finally, adaptation options may not be acceptable to society at large, or resisted by vocal opponents or groups. The social acceptability tool identifies potentially contested options, which may be useful to managers charged with implementing adaptation options. Social acceptability, as scored by experts, differed from acceptability scored by the public, indicating the need to involve the public in assessing this aspect. Scores from each tool for each scenario can be combined to rank the suite of adaptation options. This approach provides useful tools to assist conservation managers in selecting from a wide range of adaptation strategies; the methodology is also applicable to other conservation sectors.

Indigenous people in Pacific Island countries (PICs) often use their knowledge of the environment, acquired through generations of holistic observational practices and experimental learning, to make meteorological forecasts. Such knowledge systems are now recognized by several institutions, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as an important participatory forecast approach for decision making, particularly at a farm level. In this article, the authors show that indigenous knowledge of weather and seasonal climate forecasting is a crucial component of a potential strategy for making farming-related decisions and reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards.

Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneously. Here, we consider the influence of climate on nominal abundance trends, and test for evidence of interspecific competition based on 31 yr of count data from 3 co-occurring gull spe- cies in southeastern Tasmania. The silver gull Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae and Pacific gull Larus pacificus are native, while the kelp gull L. dominicanus established in Tasmania from New Zealand in the 1950s. We applied population growth models where either growth rate or carrying capacity was a function of both large-scale climate variables and local conditions. For the kelp gull, a null model without any climate variables was selected, consistent with recent population establishment and increase. For the 2 native species, climate covariates were included, and for both, wind speed was important; for Pacific gulls, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and regional sea surface temperature were also included in the selected model. These results are consistent with bottom-up forcing in the southeastern Tasmanian marine ecosystem; increased wind forcing leads to increased productivity and higher abundance of an important euphausiid prey species (Nyctiphanes australis). In years with lower wind speeds, warmer waters and higher water column stability, N. australis production is reduced. Models allowing competition effects by the kelp gull on the 2 native species performed poorly relative to models with climate covariates. Thus, compe- tition alone is not a sufficient explanatory factor for observed changes in the 2 native species, and management strategies to maintain populations of the endemic Pacific gull should seek to reduce other stressors, including factors related to climate change.

Management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate is constrained by a series of uncertainties, often related to climate change projections, ecological responses, and the effectiveness of strategies in alleviating climate change impacts. Uncertainties can be reduced over time through adaptive management. Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. To successfully implement the adaptive management cycle, different steps (planning, designing, learning and adjusting) need to be systematically implemented to inform earlier steps in an iterative way. Despite the critical role that adaptive management is likely to play in addressing the impacts of climate change on marine mega-fauna few managers have successfully implemented an adaptive management approach. We discuss the approaches necessary to implement each step of an adaptive management cycle to manage marine mega-fauna in a changing climate, highlighting the steps that require further attention to fully implement the process. Examples of sharks and rays (Selachimorpha and Batoidea) on the Great Barrier Reef and little penguins, Eudyptula minor, in south-eastern Australia are used as case studies. We found that successful implementation of the full adaptive management cycle to marine mega-fauna needs managers and researchers to: (1) obtain a better understanding of the capacity of species to adapt to climate change to inform the planning step; (2) identify strategies to directly address impacts in the marine environment to inform the designing step; and (3) develop systematic evaluation and monitoring programs to inform the learning step. Further, legislation needs to flexible to allow for management to respond.

Climate change is acknowledged as an emerging threat for top-order marine predators, yet obtaining evidence of impacts is often difficult. In south-eastern Australia, a marine global warming hotspot, evidence suggests that climate change will profoundly affect pinnipeds and seabirds. Long-term data series are available to assess some species’ responses to climate. Researchers have measured a variety of chronological and population variables, such as laying dates, chick or pup production, colony-specific abundance and breeding success. Here, we consider the challenges in accurately assessing trends in marine predator data, using long-term data series that were originally collected for other purposes, and how these may be driven by environmental change and variability. In the past, many studies of temporal changes and environmental drivers used linear analyses and we demonstrate the (theoretical) relationship between the magnitude of a trend, its variability, and the duration of a data series required to detect a linear trend. However, species may respond to environmental change in a nonlinear manner and, based on analysis of time-series from south-eastern Australia, it appears that the assumptions of a linear model are often violated, particularly for measures of population size. The commonly measured demographic variables exhibit different degrees of variation, which influences the ability to detect climate signals. Due to their generally lower year-to-year variability, we illustrate that monitoring of variables such as mass and breeding chronology should allow detection of temporal trends earlier in a monitoring programme than observations of breeding success and population size. Thus, establishing temporal changes with respect to climate change from a monitoring programme over a relatively short time period requires careful a priori choice of biological variables.

Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investi- gated anticipated impacts of climatic changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island, south- eastern Australia, and the potential economic impact on the associated tourism industry over the next century. We project a small loss of penguin breeding habitat due to sea level rise, although breeding habitat is unlikely to be limiting over this period. However, some erosion in the vicinity of tourism infrastructure will undoubtedly occur which will have economic implications. We anti cipate little direct impact of decreased rainfall and humidity. However, fire risk may increase, and extreme climate events may reduce adult and chick survival slightly. Warmer oceans are likely to improve recruitment into the breeding population but the effect on adult survival is unclear. Overall, many aspects of little penguin biology are likely to be affected by climatic change but no net negative effect on population size is projected from existing analyses. Ocean acidification has the potential to be a highly significant negative influence, but present assess- ments are speculative. Some of the predicted negative impacts can be addressed in the short- term, particularly those resulting from expected changes to the terrestrial environment. Others, particularly in the marine environment, appear to have limited options for mitigation locally. In the absence of evidence indicating population decline, economic impact may be confined to issues for tourism infrastructure due to increased sea-levels during storm events.

Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation ‘hotspots’ as the century unfolds.

Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmental characteristics resulting in novel ecosystems. The ability to predict characteristics of future ecosystems is crucial for environmental planning and the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This paper presents an approach for envisioning novel ecosystems in future climates. Focusing on riparian ecosystems, we use qualitative process models to predict likely abiotic and biotic changes in four case study systems: tropical coastal floodplains, temperate streams, high mountain streams and urban riparian zones. We concentrate on functional groups rather than individual species and consider dispersal constraints and the capacity for genetic adaptation. Our scenarios suggest that climatic changes will reduce indigenous diversity, facilitate non-indigenous invasion (especially C4 graminoids), increase fragmentation and result in simplified and less distinctive riparian ecosystems. Compared to models based on biota-environment correlations, process models built on mechanistic understanding (like Bayesian belief networks) are more likely to remain valid under novel climatic conditions. We posit that predictions based on species’ functional traits will facilitate regional comparisons and can highlight effects of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Ecosystems that have experienced similar modification to that expected under climate change (for example, altered flow regimes of regulated rivers) can be used to help inform and evaluate predictions. By manipulating attributes of these system models (for example, magnitude of climatic changes or adaptation strategies used), implications of various scenarios can be assessed and optimal management strategies identified.

Ocean temperature has been shown to be related to various demographic parameters in several seabird species, but ultimately its influence on breeding success and survival are para- mount. The timing and success of breeding of little penguins Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia have been shown to correlate with local sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the east−west sea-temperature gradient across Bass Strait several months earlier. However, the causal links between ocean temperature and these demographic variables are not readily apparent due to their lagged nature. Using 41 yr of data on little penguins in south-eastern Australia, we carried out a mark-recapture analysis to examine if the changing SST and sea-temperature gradient (east−west difference between 2 locations in Bass Strait) are associated with survival probability in the first year of life. First-year survival is correlated with (1) an east−west sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait in the winter after fledging, with an increased temperature gradient associated with decreased survival and (2) the mean SST in the autumn after fledging, with warmer seas associated with increased survival. SST alone does not provide the best model for explaining first-year survival. Projections suggest that SST in south-eastern Australia and sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait will both increase due to global warming. The net effect of an increased sea-temperature gradient in winter (which has a negative influence) and increased SST in autumn (which has a posi- tive influence) on first-year survival is uncertain, given the current lack of knowledge concerning the relationship between the sea-temperature gradient and SST in Bass Strait.

Climate change has profound implications for biodiversity worldwide. To understand its effects on Australia’s avifauna, we need to evaluate the effects of annual climatic variability and geographical climate gradients. Here, we use national datasets to examine variation in breeding of 16 species of common and widespread Australian landbirds, in relation to four variables: altitude, latitude, year and the Southern Oscillation Index. Analysis of >30 years of nesting records confirmed that breeding was generally later in colder altitudes and latitudes (geographic variation), but was not consistently related to year or the Southern Oscillation Index (temporal variation). However, power to detect expected temporal effects was low. The timing of breeding became significantly earlier with year only in south-eastern Australia. In contrast, an index of breeding activity (the proportion of atlas records for a species for which breeding was reported) increased with increasing winter values of the Southern Oscillation Index (generally wetter conditions) for all 16 species across Australia. This suggests that annual fluctuations in rainfall can have dramatic and immediate effects on breeding, even for largely sedentary, seasonally breeding species. If, as expected, climate change creates drier conditions over much of Australia, we predict a marked negative effect on bird breeding.

Although there is growing evidence of climate warming, for many regions the broader effects of climate variation on marine top predators remains unknown owing to the difficulty in obtaining, for synthesis, long-term and short-term datasets on multiple species. In the Australian region, climatic and oceanographic variability and change have been shown to affect marine species, often with profound consequences. Many seabirds are apex predators for which changes in climatic and oceanic dynamics have driven range movements poleward, reduced breeding success and altered breeding timing for some species. Here we review the literature to assess and determine the vulnerability of Australian seabirds to variation and change in climate and identify which species and ecosystems may be more resilient to future climate warming. It is clear from this synthesis that not all Australian seabirds are affected similarly, with responses varying by species and location. In addition, the paucity of information on the distribution and biology of seabird prey, foraging patterns and movements of seabirds, and the ability of seabirds to switch between prey species or adjust timing of life-cycles make generalisations about potential effects of future climate change and adaptive capacity in seabirds difficult. This applies both within Australia and elsewhere, where data are similarly sparse.

Temporal and climate-related changes in avian phenology were assessed for seven species of south-eastern Australia using data obtained from members of the public, naturalist groups and other organizations. Despite significantly warmer temperatures (∼0.02–0.03°C per year) and reduced rainfall (∼1.6–8.0 mm per year) over much of south-eastern Australia in recent decades, most species showed no corresponding trends in their timing of migration or breeding, the notable exceptions being the grey fantail (Rhipidura fuliginosa) and the flame robin (Petroica phoenicea), which migrate through Melbourne, Victoria, during autumn and spring. In many species, however, migration or breeding timing appeared to be influenced to some extent by local, rather than regional, climate conditions, particularly local daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Whether these species will noticeably change their phenology to match projected changes in climate, perhaps when a currently unknown climate threshold is crossed, or whether these species are sufficiently flexible in their foraging strategies or food sources to be able to maintain their current timing, remains to be seen.

In the version of this Perspective originally published, affiliations 1 and 4 ware incorrect, and should have read: “1Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia” and “4Centre for Water, Climate and Land (CWCL), University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia”. These have been corrected in the online versions of this Perspective.

The peri-urban environment of Langwarrin, near Melbourne, Australia, was used to investigate relationships between local climate and timing of movements in land and waterbirds. From 1976 to 1997, three of 12 species (25%) significantly altered the timing of their arrival, four of 11 species (36%) altered the timing of their departure, and two of 13 (15%) altered the time of their peak abundance. For many species (68%) timing of seasonal movements was significantly correlated with climate, in particular the timing of arrival, peak abundance and for movement in autumn. Minimum temperature appeared to have a greater influence on timing of avian movements than maximum temperature, rainfall or the number of rain-days, and where rainfall or the number of rain-days appeared important it was generally in the season before movement. Although based on a period and location where little warming or drying was observed, the complexity of responses seen by these species indicates that it may not be straightforward to predict the timing of movements of individuals or populations in response to climatic shifts. Given climatic projections of more pronounced warming and drying of this region, this study highlights the need to monitor bird populations continually to determine if species respond predominantly to interannual variability in climate or to, as yet unknown, climatic thresholds.

Climate is known to influence the timing and success of breeding in many bird species. In the northern hemisphere, significant breeding changes have been associated with climate change, with warming temperatures, often, but not always, corresponding to earlier laying. For the critically endangered Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix) of central southern Victoria, Australia, climate also plays a role in the timing and success of breeding. During the period 1989 to 2006, the timing of laying became earlier and there was a possible reduction in the mean number of eggs laid per breeding season. These changes correspond to a reduction in rainfall and mild warming. If these trends continue under projected climate-change regimes, there will be increased risk of further population decline.

Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.

In the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report numerous studies of processes and species associated with regional temperature change were listed for the Northern Hemisphere (107 in North America, 458 in Europe, and 14 in Asia), but only a handful of studies for the Southern Hemisphere and, sadly, none for Australia were included. This article looks at the progress that Australia has made in addressing these knowledge gaps during the last three years. The article highlights the need for a national approach to the study of the associations between climate change and natural systems and suggests ways in which this could be achieved.

Relative to the northern hemisphere, little is known about the effect of climate change on southern hemisphere birds, although the impact could be significant. Here we review the effects of climate change on birds that have been documented or predicted, with particular reference to Australian species. Potential impacts include changes in geographic range, movement patterns, morphology, physiology, abundance, phenology and community composition. The evidence suggests that these changes are already happening, both overseas and in Australia, but more research is needed to determine the extent of these impacts and how to conserve birds in the face of climate change. Management options include promoting adaptation and resilience, intensive management of sensitive species, and improved planning for mitigation techniques and monitoring.

Climate change is already impacting a wide range of marine species around Australia. Australia has a large number of marine mammals and seabirds, particularly when Australian Antarctic and Southern Ocean species are included: 110 species of seabird and 52 species of marine mammal. These iconic species are protected throughout Australia and in some cases are recovering from previous anthropogenic impacts including harvest. The first tool we developed is a simple 'cost-benefit- risk' (CBR) screening tool to evaluate each scenario-specific adaptation option against a number of semi-quantitative attributes. Awareness and identification of potentially contested options would be useful to managers charged with implementing adaptation options. Following on from specific application, testing some of the adaptation options in limited field trials would be a useful next step, further building the experience of researchers and managers charged with securing the status of these iconic species in the future.

Trends in extreme daily temperature and rainfall have been analysed from 1961 to 1998 for Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. This 38-year period was chosen to optimize data availability across the region. Using high-quality data from 91 stations in 15 countries, significant increases were detected in the annual number of hot days and warm nights, with significant decreases in the annual number of cool days and cold nights. These trends in extreme temperatures showed considerable consistency across the region. Extreme rainfall trends were generally less spatially coherent than were those for extreme temperature. The number of rain days (with at least 2 mm of rain) has decreased significantly throughout Southeast Asia and the western and central South Pacific, but increased in the north of French Polynesia, in Fiji, and at some stations in Australia. The proportion of annual rainfall from extreme events has increased at a majority of stations. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has declined at most stations (but not significantly), although significant increases were detected in French Polynesia. Trends in the average intensity of the wettest rainfall events each year were generally weak and not significant. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society.

Submitted by Vitor Silverio Rodrigues (vitorsrodrigues@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2014-05-27T11:30:49Z No. of bitstreams: 0Bitstream added on 2014-05-27T14:38:03Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 2-s2.0-84885053437.pdf: 221253 bytes, checksum: ff52650d1b86b7952e674de15c1d5af4 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-27T11:30:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2013-10-01 Macquarie University National Research Foundation Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. © 2013 Chambers et al. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC Kirstenbosch Research Centre South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape Town CEBC, CNRS - UPR 1934, Villiers en Bois Department of Biological Sciences Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Cape Town Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis Department of Biosciences University of Oslo, Oslo Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science University of Melbourne, Creswick, VIC Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala Laboratorio de Fenologia, Departamento de Botânica Instituto de Biociências UNESP Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo Climate Adaptation Flagship CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Brisbane, QLD International Fund for Animal Welfare, Yarmouth Port, MA Laboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology University of São Paulo, São Paulo Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS Joint Nature Conservation Committee of the UK, Stanley Animal Demography Unit University of Cape Town, Rondebosch Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology DST/NRF Centre of Excellence University of Cape Town, Rondebosch Laboratorio de Fenologia, Departamento de Botânica Instituto de Biociências UNESP Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.

B. Huntley (brian.huntley@durham.ac.uk), D. G. Hole and S. G. Willis, Ecosystem Science Centre, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham Univ., South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK. P. Barnard, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Percy FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. R. Altwegg, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Animal Demography Unit, Dept of Zoology, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. L. Chambers, Centre for Australian Weather & Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia. B. W. T. Coetzee, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Centre for Invasion Biology, Dept of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch Univ., Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa. L. Gibson, Dept of Environment & Conservation, PO Box 51, Wanneroo WA 6946, Australia. P. A. R. Hockey, Percy FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. G. F. Midgley, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa. L. G. Underhill, Animal Demography Unit, Dept of Zoology, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.

We live in an age of increased awareness of climate change and its potential eects on our ecosystems. Here we look at the eect of one aspect of climate, directional wind components, on the survival of Little Penguins Eudyptula minor on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia, using mark-recapture data gathered over a 42 year period since 1968. We apply biologically realistic age structures for the survival and recapture probabilities, and use mean seasonal wind magnitudes from the four cardinal compass directions as covariates in our modelling of the survival probability. Results indicate that rst year survival is most aected by southerly winds in the winter prior to the chick’s

Historical information from the Hobart Botanical Gardens (1864–1885) was used to identify species and phenological phases that were responsive to climatic variations and have the potential to be used as climate change indicators in southern Australia. Of the 49 species considered, 26 (53%) had at least one phenophase that appeared to be driven by changes in rainfall, minimum temperature, or both. This was particularly true for fruiting species, including currants, pears and plums, and for the phenophases harvest commencement, seed ripening or fall, and fruit ripening.