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Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is renowned for its nutritional and pharmaceutical attributes. A staple in South American (SA) culture, it serves as the foundation for several traditional beverages. Significantly, the pharmaceutical domain has secured numerous patents associated with this plant's distinctive properties. This research delves into the climatic influence on yerba mate by leveraging the CMIP6 model projections to assess potential shifts brought about by climate change. Given its economic and socio-cultural significance, comprehending how climate change might sway yerba mate's production and distribution is pivotal. The CMIP6 model offers insights into future conditions, pinpointing areas that are either conducive or adverse for yerba mate cultivation. Our findings will be instrumental in crafting adaptive and mitigative strategies, thereby directing sustainable production planning for yerba mate. The core objective of this study was to highlight zones optimal for Ilex paraguariensis cultivation across its major producers: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under CMIP6's climate change forecasts. Our investigation encompassed major producing zones spanning the North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil, along with the aforementioned countries. A conducive environment for this crop's growth features air temperatures between 21 to 25 °C and a minimum precipitation of 1200 mm per cycle. We sourced the current climate data from the WorldClim version 2 platform. Meanwhile, projections for future climatic parameters were derived from WorldClim 2.1, utilizing the IPSL-CM6A-LR model with a refined 30-s spatial resolution. We took into account four distinct socio-economic pathways over varying timelines: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2081, and 2081-2100. Geographic information system data aided in the spatial interpolation across Brazil, applying the Kriging technique. The outcomes revealed a majority of the examined areas as non-conducive for yerba mate cultivation, with a scanty 12.25% (1.5 million km 2 ) deemed favorable. Predominantly, these propitious regions lie in southern Brazil and Uruguay, the present-day primary producers of yerba mate. Alarming was the discovery that forthcoming climatic scenarios predominantly forecast detrimental shifts, characterized by escalating average air temperatures and diminishing rainfall. These trends portend a decline in suitable cultivation regions for yerba mate., (© 2024. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.)

Identifying the climatic characterization of a region and its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its changes in the face of climate change events, is essential for agrometeorological studies because they can assist in the planning of strategies that reduce the negative impacts generated in the cultures exposed to critical climatic conditions. Thus, this study aimed to characterize the climatic conditions of the MATOPIBA region and its changes in scenarios of climate change using the classification index of Thornthwaite. Daily time series of rainfall and temperature data in the 1950–1990 period were used, covering 467 points over the studied region. The data set was used to estimate climatological water balance and climate index Thornthwaite (1948), and obtain the trends climatological according to IPCC (2014) climate change projections, with changes in the average air temperature (+ 1.5 °C and − 1.5 °C) and precipitation (+ 30% and − 30%). The MATOPIBA region is characterized by its humid, dry subhumid, and moist subhumid climate, with the rainy seasons, between October and April, and drought, from May to September, well defined. In MATOPIBA climate change scenarios, climatic extreme indices tend to alter the pattern, frequency, and distribution of climate class, which can increase climate risk and impact crop production. Therefore, the results obtained can be used to develop strategies to mitigate the vulnerability of crops to climate change conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate Classification System (CCS) is an important tool for validating climate change models, subsidizing the characterization of new areas suitable or unfit for agricultural activity according to future climate change scenarios. This study aims to classify the climate of the Brazilian territory in the various climate change scenarios of the IPCC through the Thornthwaite system (1948). We used a 30-year historical series (1989–2019) of climatic data of average air temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm), obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources platform (NASA/POWER). Potential evapotranspiration (ETP) was estimated by the method of Camargo (1971); the climatological water balance (CWB) was calculated by the method of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955), using 100 mm of soil water storage capacity. CWB extracts were combined for classification by Thornthwaite (1948). The scenarios used were based on the IPCC (2014) projections and the study of Pirttioja et al. (2015). The Brazilian territory had an average air temperature of 22.20 °C (± 3.20) °C and annual precipitation of 1987 mm (± 725) mm. The climatic classification of Thornthwaite presented 108 climatic classes for the current scenario with a more significant predominance of the classes ArAʹaʹ, B4rAʹaʹ, and B3rAʹaʹ representing 20.54%, 15.62%, and 9.46% of the Brazilian territory, respectively. The climate class ArAʹaʹ had 39.20% in the North and 14.97% in the Midwest. The South region has a predominance of 24.31% for the class ArBʹ3aʹ. In the Southeast and Northeast, the climate classes B2rBʹ3aʹ and DdBʹ2aʹ represented 14.80% and 15.26% of the regions, respectively. The S5 scenario was considered more favorable to establishing crops, with 48.04% of Brazil represented by the climate class ArAʹaʹ. Furthermore, the most catastrophic scenarios for crops were S3 and S4, promoting Brazil a predominance of classes B3rAʹaʹ in 18.02% and B1rAʹaʹ in 21.04%, respectively, favoring the occurrence of arid and dry climates in large part of the Brazilian territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a major problem for humanity, as it can drastically alter the current climate scenario, affecting mainly agriculture. In the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), agribusiness is the main economic activity representing a large part of the state's GDP. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the climatological water balance in the Pantanal regions of Brazil. We used a 30-year historical series (1987–2018) of air temperature data (Tar, °C) and rainfall (P, mm) from the state of MS; climatic data were collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration platform/Prediction of World Wide Energy Resources - (NASA/POWER). Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using the Camargo (1971) method. The water balance (WB) was calculated using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, with soil water storage capacity equal to 100 mm. We calculated the aridity, hydric, and moisture indices for all municipalities in MS, and later classified according to Thornthwaite (1948). The scenarios used were based on the (IPCC 2014) projections. Air temperatures in the MS ranged from 22.5 to 27.6 °C in the current scenario; rainfall and PET have an average of 1400 mm annual−1 and 1188 mm annual−1, respectively. The WB of the state of MS has an EXC and DEF of 197.7 mm annual−1 and 64.2 mm annual−1, respectively. The predominant climatic type is C2 - subhumid. The highest values for SWS and EXC occur in scenarios S5, S10, S15, and S20, which are the most moisture scenarios. The highest DEF occurred in scenarios S1, S11, S16, and S21; these scenarios showed the driest climatic types. The northwestern region of the state, where the Pantanal is located, was the driest. In scenario S21, the climate of the state has a drastic change that makes several crops in the MS unfeasible, thus negatively influencing the fauna and flora of the Pantanal biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improvement of planting season and crop growth time, considering climatic and soil needs of plants, is important to increase cassava (Manihot esculenta) production in Midwestern Brazil. Thus, we sought to develop an agricultural zoning for cassava cultivation in the Midwest of Brazil in different climate change scenarios. Mean air temperature and precipitation data from localities of the Midwest of Brazil were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Clay (%) data from localities of the Midwest of Brazil were obtained from SoilGrids. Regions where the air temperature was within the range from 20 to 27 °C were considered climatically favorable for commercial exploitation of cassava, in addition to precipitation between 1000 and 1500 mm year−1, and clay content was less than ≤ 35%. Moreover, regions with air temperature below 16 °C and above 38 °C, precipitation below 1000 mm and above 1500 mm year−1, and clay content > 35% were considered unsuitable for cassava cultivation. Raster or matrix images, corresponding to mean annual air temperature, annual precipitation, and clay (soil), were superimposed to create cassava suitability classes, according to crop requirements. The climate change scenarios were established by changing the air temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm). The air temperature was increased by 1.5, 3.0, 4.5, and 6.0 °C as adopted by Pirttioja et al. (Clim Res 65:87–105, 2015). We changed in precipitation − 30, − 15, + 15, and 30% according to the future projections simulated by the IPCC (2014). Maps were made using geographic information systems. In the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goiás, mean precipitation was around 1200 to 4000 mm year−1. Northern Mato Grosso showed the highest annual precipitation, with values above 3500 mm. A large extension of the Midwest region of Brazil is climatically and soil favorable for cassava. The Midwest is a region with high rainfall, so we recommend planting in well-drained soils to avoid phytosanitary problems. Producers taking this care can plant cassava in 86.6% of the territory. The climate change scenarios demonstrated different Agriculture zonings for cassava in the Midwest of Brazil. With the increase in air temperature, greater marginal classes occurred, but cassava is resistant to this condition. But, this increase in temperature can reduce the cycle and consequently reduce production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]