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Predicting the geographic distribution of plants that provide ecosystem services is essential to understand the adaptation of communities and conserve that group toward climate change. Predictions can be more accurate if changes in physiological characteristics of species due to those changes are included. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the different hierarchical levels of Apuleia leiocarpa (Vogel) J. F. Macbr. (Fabaceae). Therefore, we experimentally evaluate the effect of different temperatures on the initial development (vigor) and estimate the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of the species, using ecological niche approaches. For the experiment, we used 11 temperature intervals of 2 °C ranging from 21 to 41 °C. We used ecological niche modeling techniques (ENM) to predict the species' environmental suitability in future climate scenarios. The association between the experiment and niche models was obtained by testing the relationships of temperature increase on the species vigor and geographic distribution. This conceptual model to determine the direct and indirect effects of temperature was generated using the methodological framework of structural equation models. The experiment showed that the seeds had the highest growth at 31 °C. ENMs indicated that due to climate change, there is a tendency for the plant to migrate to regions with milder temperatures. However, such regions may be unsuitable for the plant since they do not have ideal temperatures to germinate, which may cause a drastic reduction in their availability in a future climate change scenario. The inclusion of seed germination through experimental research allowed us to detect an area that is less suitable for germination despite being climatically suitable for the species. Thus, research that integrates the effect of climate on the different stages of the organism's development is essential to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity.

It is essential to predict areas of losses or exchanges of ecosystem services to adapt communities to the impacts caused by climate change. Particularly for provisioning ecosystem services provided by economically important plant species, understanding the association between climate change impacts and deforestation of native vegetation increases the accuracy of those predictions. Thus, we aim to (i) map the richness of provisioning ecosystem services from economically important native plants; (ii) use forecasts (present and future) of the distribution of ecosystem services to assess areas of changes in the number and type of provisioning ecosystems services. We evaluated provisioning ecosystem services from 110 Cerrado native species of economic importance for the local population. We determined the potential distribution of these plants using ecological niche modeling techniques, which were grouped according to the 21 different services provided. The forecasts for variation in richness and type of service used four future climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070). The service losses detected in our models were associated with variables representing the progress of native vegetation deforestation in the biome due to agricultural expansion. Currently, ecosystem services can be found simultaneously in practically the entire biome. However, changes in the global climate will impact the potential geographic distribution of those plants, causing many areas in the biome to have reduced availability of potential ecosystem services. Moreover, due to the association between exposure to climate change and deforestation of native vegetation, the northern region of the biome will likely have the distribution of ecosystem services severely affected.

We experimentally evaluated how different temperatures affect germination of individual seedlings of Dipteryx alata, and estimated the impact of climate change on the species using ecological niche modeling. A total of 240 seeds were randomly distributed among three different temperature treatments (32 oC, 36 oC, and 40 oC), and monitored for 35 days. We measured seven seed traits and estimated the ecological niche of D. alata using a consensus of four methods. The treatment with the highest temperature produced smaller and lighter seedlings. The consensus of ecological niche modeling indicated that are expected to reduce the areas with climates favorable for D. alata in future scenarios. Thus, our two results (experiment and ecological niche modeling) are concordant, and both indicate the impact of global warming on germination (initial stage of the plant) and potential geographic distribution. Moreover, in geographic context, our experiment and ecological niche modeling indicated that north, northwest and central regions of the “Cerrado” are predicted to have lower morphological traits of germination and loss climate favorable area, since these regions are predicted to have higher temperatures (nearly 40 oC) in future climatic scenarios.

We assess the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea (Arecaceae), commonly called açaí. To construct the ecological niche model of E. oleracea, we used 95 points of occurrence, five bioclimatic variables in current and future climate scenarios and Maxent software. The Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was used to rank the ability of the models (considering ecological, socioeconomic and spatial variables) to explain the variation in productivity of E. oleracea among 200 municipalities. The maps showed that regions with higher environmental suitability for E. oleracea were concentrated in northern and northeastern Brazil, which was similar to the spatial pattern of productivity data of E. oleracea. Future climate conditions tend to promote an increase in the geographical distribution of this species, even though the new regions are in the arch of Amazon deforestation. Only space and the environmental suitability (indicated by the ecological niche model) were important for explaining the productivity of E. oleracea. That is, municipalities that are more productive are located in more suitable environmental regions. Therefore, it is important to use niche models to explain demographic changes and to estimate species demographic attributes.

Aim: Reveal the direction for future studies about eutrophication, or even reveal the preoccupation among the scientific community about this environmental problem. With a systematic synthesis of eutrophication studies, scientists may be able to understand the state of the literature on aquatic ecosystems around the world. This study intends to identify the main factors used to control algal blooms and the eutrophication process, the countries and environments which have more research about this theme or even identify the articles’ subjects in different periods (e.g.: Experimental, theoretic, monitoring, conservation). Methods We analyzed all studies published in the Thomson ISI Web of Science on both eutrophication and phytoplankton between 2001 and 2016. Results During the period analyzed, we observed an increase in concern about this subject. Authors from institutions in the USA and China wrote most of the studies. The most important geographic and socioeconomic aspects to determine the publication number were total area and HDI respectively. However, the main determinant for the publication about this subject was international collaboration. Some of the most actual themes in ecology and conservation (e.g.: functional groups, climate change, experiment, perdition models, regional scales, invasive species) were addressed in the studies analysed. Invasive species such as Tilapia and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii were the most cited species on these keywords. Conclusion Despite the current issues addressed in the studies on phytoplankton and eutrophication, some subjects, such as climate change or spatial pattern, were only common in years more recent. Even though studies focusing in functional diversity are highly relevant for conservation, they were not common in any year studied. The major determinant factor related to the increasing in eutrophication knowledge was the international collaboration Resumo Objetivos: Revelar a direção de futuros estudos ou mesmo a preocupação da comunidade científica sobre esse problema ambiental. Com uma revisão sistemática dos estudos sobre eutrofização cientistas podem ser capazes de entender o estado da literatura sobre ecossistemas aquáticos no mundo. Nesse trabalho pretende se identificar os principais fatores usados para controlar florações e processos de eutrofização, os países e ambientes com mais pesquisar sobre o tema e ainda os principais temas abordados em diferentes períodos. Métodos Nós analisamos todos os estudos publicados na base de dados Thomson ISI Web of Science sobre eutrofização e fitoplâncton entre 2001 e 2016. Resultados Durante o período analisado observamos um aumento no número de publicações. Autores dos EUA e da China escrevam a maior parte dos estudos. Os aspectos socioeconômicos e geográficos mais importantes para determinar o número de publicações foram área total do país e IDH. Entretanto, o principal determinante para publicação nessa área foi o número de colaborações internacionais. Alguns dos temas mais atuais em ecologia e conservação (ex.: grupo funcional, mudanças climáticas, modelos de predição, escalas regionais, espécies invasoras) foram abordados nos estudos analisados. Espécies invasoras como Tilápia e Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii foram as espécies mais citadas nas palavras chaves. Conclusão Apesar das abordagens atuais nos estudos de eutrofização e fitoplâncton, alguns temas foram comuns apenas nos recentes anos como mudanças climáticas e padrões espaciais. Apesar da relevância da diversidade funcional nos estudos de conservação, essa palavra não foi comum em nenhum dos anos estudados. O fator determinante para aumento do conhecimento sobre eutrofização foram as colaborações internacionais.

Climate change and deforestation are suggested to be the main drivers of decline in pollinators. Forest-dependent species are expected to be the most affected and Euglossa marianae Nemesio (Hymenoptera: Apidae), an endemic species of the highly fragmented Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF), is believed to be declining as a consequence of human impact. Over the last 17 years, we carried out field surveys to unveil its distribution, allowing us to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on this species, from the last glacial maximum into the future, using species distribution models. Our main goals were to: (i) identify populations potentially under risk of extinction given future climate change; (ii) quantify the amount of climatically suitable and climatically stable areas for E. marianae within AF; (iii) evaluate the area that are available as natural habitat and under legal protection, in an attempt to indicate priority areas to preserve this species. The most stable areas for maintaining populations of E. marianae were located in southern Bahia and northern Espirito Santo states, a region severely affected by deforestation and with several protected areas. Climate change per se does not seem to be the major problem for E. marianae. It may constitute an indirect problem given the limited dispersal abilities of this species, however. Climatically suitable areas will probably increase southwards in the future, but the extreme fragmentation of AF adds great uncertainty as to whether the species will disperse southwards, to regions such as the ‘Serra do Mar’ in northeastern Sao Paulo.

The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model-ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental).

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species. Neste trabalho, diferentes modelos climáticos, métodos de modelagem e cenários de emissão de carbono foram utilizados para avaliar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição geográfica de espécies de importância econômica e cultural das regiões abrangidas pelo bioma Cerrado. Assim como os resultados de vários trabalhos têm evidenciado ao longo dos anos, ainda há muitas incertezas relacionadas a essas projeções, apesar de os modelos bioclimáticos ainda serem a metodologia mais utilizada e eficaz para avaliar as consequências dessas mudanças climáticas para a biodiversidade. Neste artigo, foi possível observar que 90% dessas incertezas estão relacionadas aos métodos de modelagem. Contudo, independente disso, os resultados revelaram que as espécies estudadas reduzirão, em média, 78% de sua distribuição geográfica no Cerrado. Para que haja trabalho eficaz sobre a conservação dessas espécies, muitos estudos ainda precisam ser executados, apesar de já ser possível prever que as mudanças climáticas terão forte influência no padrão de distribuição dessas espécies.

Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future.

Aim Species distribution modelling (SDM) has increasingly been used to predict palaeodistributions at regional and global scales in order to understand the response of vegetation to climate change and to estimate palaeodistributions for the testing of biogeographical hypotheses. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in SDM that may restrict the ability of models to hindcast palaeo-distributions and provide a basis for hypothesis testing in molecular phylogenetics and phylogeographical studies. Location Seasonally dry forests (SDFs) in South America. Methods We addressed the problem of using palaeodistribution modelling for SDFs based on the projection of their current distribution into past environments (21 ka) using 11 methods for SDMs and five coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) for 16 species. Results We observed considerable uncertainty in the hindcasts, with the most important effects for AOGCM (median 12.2%), species (median 15.6%) and their interaction (median 13.6%). The effects of AOGCMs were stronger in the Amazon region, whereas the species effect occurred primarily in the dry areas of central Brazil. The log-linear model detected significant effects of the three sources of variation and their interaction on the classification of each map in supporting alternative hypotheses. An expansion scenario combining the Pleistocene arc and Amazonian expansion, and Pennington's Amazonian expansion alone, were the most frequently supported palaeodistribution scenarios. Main conclusions As a basis for evaluating a given hypothesis, hindcast distributions must be used in direct association with other evidence, such as molecular variation and the fossil record. We propose an alternative framework concerning hypothesis testing that couples SDM and phylogeographical work, in which palaeoclimatic distributions and other sources of information, such as the pollen fossil record and coalescence modelling, must be weighted equally.

Recognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models, climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles hindcasts/forecasts revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing past and future predictions, a single continuous climatically stable area was identified, which should be considered as a potential improvement for spatial prioritization for conservation.

The purpose of this study is to conduct a scientometric analysis of the global climate change (GCC) literature to identify the patterns, trends and biases in this research field. Data were obtained using the Thomson ISI database. A total of 5,444 articles on GCC were recorded, showing a temporal increase in the number of articles (r = 0.84; P < 0.0001). Most the articles look at the impact of climate change on geophysical variables, humans and vegetation. Few studies look at fungi, amphibians or reptiles (H = 24.6; P < 0.0001, N = 27). Principal component analysis revealed a temporal difference in the keywords associated with each article. In the first years we observed that the most frequent keywords indicated worry about the main causes of global climate change, but this shifted in more recent years towards keywords indicating concern with the effects of climate change on biodiversity. We argue that this scientometric study can help guide future climate change research and contribute to our understanding of several poorly studied areas.

Several recent studies have predicted decreased environmental suitability for species in future scenarios of climate change, which will affect the economy of many municipalities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on environmental suitability for “Pequi” tree (Caryocar brasiliense; an economically important Cerrado fruit tree) and investigate the relationship between environmental suitability (according to an ecological niche model ENM) and production of “Pequi” fruit in Brazilian cities. For the ENM, we used 312 occurrence points of “Pequi” tree and nine climatic variables to model current distribution and project it into future scenarios (scenario A2a for CCCma AOGCM). “Pequi” production averaged 30.89 kg/km2, and the Gross Internal Product at municipal level and “Pequi” production were negatively but marginally correlated (r = -0.16; P = 0.05 using Dutilleul’s correction for spatial autocorrelation), suggesting that poor municipalities tend to have more use of this natural resource. Future scenarios showed large losses of suitable environments for the species in 2050 in Central Brazil. There is also a significant positive correlation between environmental suitability in current time and “Pequi” production across municipalities (r = 0.382, P = 0.032). Our results suggest that municipality currently using “Pequi” fruit will have lower production in the future, because their regions will be less suitable for “Pequi” tree, which in turn may affect the local economies. Thus, it is necessary that governments develop policies that mitigate adverse impacts, enhance positive impacts, and supports adaptation to climate change, together with enhancing local food security.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae). Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Aim One of the longest recognized patterns in macroecology, Bergmann’s rule, describes the tendency for homeothermic animals to have larger body sizes in cooler climates than their phylogenetic relatives in warmer climates. Here we provide an integrative process-based explanation for Bergmann’s rule at the global scale for the mammal order Carnivora. Location Global. Methods Our database comprises the body sizes of 209 species of extant terrestrial Carnivora, which were analysed using phylogenetic autocorrelation and phylogenetic eigenvector regression. The interspecific variation in body size was partitioned into phylogenetic (P) and specific (S) components, and mean P- and S-components across species were correlated with environmental variables and human occupation both globally and for regions glaciated or not during the last Ice Age. Results Three-quarters of the variation in body size can be explained by phylogenetic relationships among species, and the geographical pattern of mean values of the P-component is the opposite of the pattern predicted by Bergmann’s rule. Partial regression revealed that at least 43% of global variation in the mean phylogenetic component is explained by current environmental factors. In contrast, the mean S-component of body size shows large positive deviations from ancestors across the Holarctic, and negative deviations in southern South America, the Sahara Desert, and tropical Asia. There is a moderately strong relationship between the human footprint and body size in glaciated regions, explaining 19% of the variance of the mean P-component. The relationship with the human footprint and the P-component is much weaker in the rest of the world, and there is no relationship between human footprint and S-component in any region. Main conclusions Bergmannian clines are stronger at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere because of the continuous alternation of glacial– interglacial cycles throughout the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, which generated increased species turnover, differential colonization and more intense adaptive processes soon after glaciated areas became exposed. Our analyses provide a unified explanation for an adaptive Bergmann’s rule within species and for an interspecific trend towards larger body sizes in assemblages resulting from historical changes in climate and contemporary human impacts.

Many species are expected to suffer strong shifts in their geographic ranges due to climate changes in the next 50 years, with severe consequences for biodiversity patterns and population structure. We used here an ensemble forecast approach for obtaining species' range in which multiple species distribution models and climatic models were combined to model loss of genetic variability in Baru, Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae), an economically important Neotropical tree native to the Cerrado of Brazil. We estimated a series of genetic parameters (number of alleles per locus, expected heterozygosity under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and mutation-drift equilibrium) for this species based on eight microsatellite loci. We then recalculated these parameters assuming that local populations in areas of low future environmental suitability will go extinct. All genetic parameters remained approximately constant up to a 50% threshold of climatic suitability in the future; after this critical threshold there is an abrupt reduction in all parameters, although the magnitude of shift is only about 10% of current values, on average. Thus, despite the shifts in geographic range and climatically suitable areas towards southeastern Brazil, our analyses do not predict a strong loss of genetic diversity in D. alata because of the broad tolerance of this species, which ensures large future ranges, contrasting with other Cerrado species that have been analyzed in a similar manner.

The effects of climate change on species' ranges have been usually inferred using niche-based models creating bioclimatic envelopes that are projected into geographical space. Here, we apply an ensemble forecasting approach for niche models in the Neotropical grasshopper Tropidacris cristata (Acridoidea: Romalei- dae). A novel protocol was used to partition and map the variation in modelled ranges due to niche models, Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. 2. We used 112 records of T. cristata and four climatic variables to model the spe- cies' niche using five niche models, four AOGCMs and two emission scenarios. Combinations of these effects (50 cross-validations for each of the 15 subsets of the environmental variables) were used to estimate and map the occurrence frequencies (EOF) across all analyses. A three-way ANOVA was used to partition and map the sources of variation. 3. The projections for 2080 show that the range edges of the species are likely to remain approximately constant, but shifts in maximum EOF are forecasted. Suitable climatic conditions tend to disappear from central areas of Amazon, although this depends on the AOGCM and the niche model. Most of the variability around the mapped consensus projections came from using distinct niche models and AOGCMs. 4. Although our analyses are restricted to a single species, they provide new con- ceptual and methodological insights in the application of ensemble forecasting and variance partition approaches to understand the origins of uncertainty in studies assessing species responses to climate change in the tropics.

Background Many species are expected to suffer a strong shift in geographic ranges due to climate changes in the next fifty years, depending on their ecological tolerance and current demographical parameters, which were in turn shaped by their evolutionary history. These shifts may also cause a change in genetic population structure and variability, because local extinctions or reduction in fitness are not expected to be random in geographical space. Here we used an ensemble forecast approach of Species Distribution Modeling (SDM hereafter, also known as niche modeling) to derive current and future geographic distribution of the Neotropical tree Dipteryx alata (“Baru” tree, Fabaceae). We then obtained a series of genetic parameters for the species after generating extinctions in areas of low future habitat suitability.