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Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change are two major global change factors driving shifts in the location of suitable areas for many species. Here, we assessed if a low‐vagility newt, Triturus marmoratus, can track displacement of suitable areas by 2100, and tested whether climate or LULC changes are primary drivers of the species' future distribution. We combined niche modelling with the process‐based model simRShift to improve biological relevance and simulate species dispersal by 2100 under scenarios of climate and LULC changes at high spatial resolution. Our results show that T. marmoratus could lose a significant part of its current French range in the coming decades, and that the range loss will primarily be driven by climate change, with LULC change playing a secondary role. The species seems unlikely to be able to track the northern shift of its suitable habitat as rapidly as required given the rate of climate warming during the 21st century. This is due to insufficient dispersal ability, which is compounded by the magnitude of habitat fragmentation in the human‐dominated landscape. We highlight the need to assess vulnerability and anticipate threats arising from global change even for species that are not currently considered endangered. We identified areas where the species is most likely to occur and be extinct in the future, which can serve as a guide for population monitoring. Our framework can support conservation strategy development by defining ecological corridors that would assist species to track their required habitats in the face of global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: When modelling future or past geographic distributions of a species, attention should be paid to the possible differentiated responses to climate changes between lineages. Dispersal also plays an important role in the capacity of species to track suitable climate, which is particularly relevant for amphibians with limited dispersal ability. In this study, we included different lineages and dispersal distances into species distribution models to make them more biologically relevant in face of climate change scenarios. Location: Europe. Taxa: Bombina variegata and its lineages. Methods: Using MaxEnt, we fitted correlative niche models for B. variegata lineages and also for the species level (B. variegata sensu lato) that we projected under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5). A comparison of projections was conducted considering both unlimited and limited dispersal abilities. Results: We found that the B. variegata lineages differed in their bioclimatic niches. In general, models run without discriminating the lineages showed reduced suitable areas compared to models run at each lineage, especially those for B. variegata pachypus and B. variegata scabra (southern lineages). Suitable areas identified for the LGM match with the climatic refugia identified in phylogeographic studies. Projections for the mid‐Holocene showed the increase of suitable areas for the lineages B. variegata variegata "Carpathians" and "Western" while they decreased for the southern lineages. In the future (2040–2080), only models under limited dispersal predict the extinction of the Carpathian lineage and a reduction in suitable areas for the other lineages, regardless of periods and scenarios. Main conclusions: We demonstrated important shifts in habitat suitability in Europe suggesting range‐shifts about hundreds of kilometres in response to past climate changes. However, rapid and unprecedented changes in suitability are expected in the future due to the accelerated climate warming during the 21st. According to their limited dispersal abilities, the persistence of all B. variegata lineages over time appears uncertain. We further recommend to integrate the intraspecific levels, when available, in modelling process to catch local variations and obtain more accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The white‐clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only. We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low‐warming and high‐warming conditions.We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France. Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100.Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]