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The 2023 Annual Symposium of the Fisheries Society of the British Isles hosted opportunities for researchers, scientists, and policy makers to reflect on the state of art of predicting fish distributions and consider the implications to the marine and aquatic environments of a changing climate. The outcome of one special interest group at the Symposium was a collection of questions, organized under five themes, which begin to capture the state of the field and identify priorities for research and management over the coming years. The five themes were Physiology, Mechanisms, Detect and Measure, Manage, and Wider Ecosystems. The questions, 25 of them, addressed concepts which remain poorly understood, are data deficient, and/or are likely to be impacted in measurable or profound ways by climate change. Moving from the first to the last theme, the questions expanded in the scope of their considerations, from specific processes within the individual to ecosystem-wide impacts, but no one question is bigger than any other: each is important in detecting, understanding, and predicting fish distributions, and each will be impacted by an aspect of climate change. In this way, our questions, particularly those concerning unknown mechanisms and data deficiencies, aimed to offer a guide to other researchers, managers, and policy makers in the prioritization of future work as a changing climate is expected to have complex and disperse impacts on fish populations and distributions that will require a coordinated effort to address., (© 2024 Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

The determinants of the structure, functioning and resilience of pelagic ecosystems across most of the polar regions are not well known. Improved understanding is essential for assessing the value of biodiversity and predicting the effects of change (including in biodiversity) on these ecosystems and the services they maintain. Here we focus on the trophic interactions that underpin ecosystem structure, developing comparative analyses of how polar pelagic food webs vary in relation to the environment. We highlight that there is not a singular, generic Arctic or Antarctic pelagic food web, and, although there are characteristic pathways of energy flow dominated by a small number of species, alternative routes are important for maintaining energy transfer and resilience. These more complex routes cannot, however, provide the same rate of energy flow to highest trophic-level species. Food-web structure may be similar in different regions, but the individual species that dominate mid-trophic levels vary across polar regions. The characteristics (traits) of these species are also different and these differences influence a range of food-web processes. Low functional redundancy at key trophic levels makes these ecosystems particularly sensitive to change. To develop models for projecting responses of polar ecosystems to future environmental change, we propose a conceptual framework that links the life histories of pelagic species and the structure of polar food webs.

In 1997, the Bering Sea ecosystem, a productive, high-latitude marginal sea, demonstrated that it responds on very short time scales to atmospheric anomalies. That year, a combination of atmospheric mechanisms produced notable summer weather anomalies over the eastern Bering Sea. Calm winds, clear skies, and warm air temperatures resulted in a larger-than-normal transfer of heat to surface waters and the establishment of a shallow mixed layer. In spring, significant new production occurred below the shallow pycnocline over the Middle Shelf, depleting the subpycnocline nutrient reservoir that normally exists during summer. Following the depletion of nitrate and silicate from the system, a sustained (≥ 4 months) bloom of coccolithophores (Emiliania huxleyi) was observed - a phenomenon not previously documented in this region. Summer Middle Shelf Domain copepod concentrations were higher for some species in 1997 than in the early 1980s. Warmer surface water and lack of wind mixing also changed the basic distribution of hydrographic regimes on the south-eastern shelf and altered the strength and position of fronts or transition zones where apex predators seek elevated food concentrations. The Inner Front was well inshore of its normal position, and adult euphausiids (the primary prey of short-tailed shearwaters, Puffinus tenuirostris) were unavailable at, and shoreward of, the front in autumn. High shearwater mortality rates followed the period of low euphausiid availability. Some, but not all, of these anomalous conditions re-occurred in 1998. These observations are another demonstration that the structure and function of marine ecosystems are intimately tied to forcing from the atmosphere. Alteration of climatological forcing functions, expressed as weather, can be expected to have large impacts on this ecosystem and its natural resources.

Marine plankton communities form intricate networks of interacting organisms at the base of the food chain, and play a central role in regulating ocean biogeochemical cycles and climate. However, predicting plankton community shifts in response to climate change remains challenging. While species distribution models are valuable tools for predicting changes in species biogeography under climate change scenarios, they generally overlook the key role of biotic interactions, which can significantly shape ecological processes and ecosystem responses. Here, we introduce a novel statistical framework, association distribution modelling (ADM), designed to model and predict ecological associations distribution in space and time. Applied on a Tara Oceans genome-resolved metagenomics dataset, the present-day biogeography of ADM-inferred marine plankton associations revealed four major biogeographic biomes organized along a latitudinal gradient. We predicted the evolution of these biome-specific communities in response to a climate change scenario, highlighting differential responses to environmental change. Finally, we explored the functional potential of impacted plankton communities, focusing on carbon fixation, outlining the predicted evolution of its geographical distribution and implications for ecosystem function. This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is subjected to all-encompassing disruptions in marine ecosystems caused by anthropogenic warming. To provide reliable estimates of how future changes will affect the ecosystems, knowledge of Arctic marine ecosystem responses to past environmental variability beyond the instrumental era is essential. Here, we present a novel approach on how to evaluate the state of benthic marine biotic conditions during the deglacial and Holocene period on the Northeast Greenland shelf. Benthic foraminiferal species were assigned traits (e.g., oxygen tolerance, food preferences) aiming to identify past faunal changes as a response to external forcing mechanisms. This approach was applied on sediment cores from offshore Northeast Greenland. We performed numerical rate-of-change detection to determine significant changes in the benthic foraminiferal traits. That way, the significant abrupt trait changes can be assessed across sites, providing a better understanding of the impact of climate drivers on the traits. Our results demonstrate that during the last ~ 14,000 years, bottom water oxygen is the main factor affecting the variability in the benthic foraminiferal faunas in this area. Our results show that significant changes in the traits correspond to drastic climate perturbations. Specifically, the deglacial-Holocene transition and mid-Holocene warm period exhibited significant change, with several trait turnovers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fjord systems are transition zones between land and sea, resulting in complex and dynamic environments. They are of particular interest in theArctic as they harbour ecosystems inhabited by a rich range of species and provide many societal benefits. The key drivers of change in the European Arctic (i.e., Greenland, Svalbard, and Northern Norway) fjord socio-ecological systems are reviewed here, structured into five categories: cryosphere (sea ice, glacier mass balance, and glacial and riverine discharge), physics (seawater temperature, salinity, and light), chemistry (carbonate system, nutrients), biology (primary production, biomass, and species richness), and social (governance, tourism, and fisheries). The data available for the past and present state of these drivers, aswell as futuremodel projections, are analysed in a companion paper. Changes to the two drivers at the base of most interactions within fjords, seawater temperature and glacier mass balance, will have the most significant and profound consequences on the future of European Arctic fjords. This is because even though governance may be effective at mitigating/adapting to local disruptions caused by the changing climate, there is possibly nothing that can be done to halt the melting of glaciers, the warming of fjord waters, and all of the downstream consequences that these two changes will have. This review provides the first transdisciplinary synthesis of the interactions between the drivers of changewithinArctic fjord socio-ecological systems. Knowledge of what these drivers of change are, and how they interact with one another, should provide more expedient focus for future research on the needs of adapting to the changing Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region is currently experiencing major modifications in sea ice extent and phenology due to global climate and anthropogenic changes. As Arctic marine ecosystems rely greatly on the presence of sea ice and its seasonal dynamics, these changes could have major impacts on Arctic biota. The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) is an endemic Arctic seabird whose populations are declining in Canada and Svalbard. Its affinity for sea ice makes it a good sentinel species of current changes in the high Arctic. We explored the influence of sea-ice-related features and anthropogenic subsidies on the foraging behaviour of ivory gulls during the breeding season. To this end, we analysed the movement of adult ivory gulls in north-east Greenland. We confirmed that ivory gulls use a dual foraging strategy, with birds faithful to their foraging areas at short distances from the colony, but used individual-specific areas during long-distance foraging trips. We highlight that ivory gulls are spatially specialised individuals within a generalist species. We demonstrated that human settlements attracted foraging birds, which shows that human presence in such a remote place may influence the seabird behaviour. Finally, by combining hidden Markov models and resource selection functions, we showed that ivory gulls selected highly concentrated sea ice for foraging during the breeding season. Our study provides key information on the use of space and foraging strategies of ivory gulls during the breeding season, and more broadly, how Arctic seabirds use ice features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical climate change and human exploitation are thought to have played important roles in shaping population dynamics of sub-Antarctic marine predators, such as king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) and Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazelle). For example, Antarctic fur seals on the sub-Antarctic South Georgia Island were nearly hunted to extinction by humans before the early 1900s. However, records of occupation history pre- and post-anthropogenic stress are often sporadic and challenging to interpret. In this study, we investigated paleoecological proxies in sediment cores from South Georgia Island to examine past marine predator population dynamics in the face of climate change and exploitation pressure. Sediment cores representing 1854 CE to present were collected from two sites on South Georgia Island in the South Atlantic and analyzed for geochemical (total carbon, total nitrogen, δ13C and δ15N values) and biological (e.g., seal hairs, penguin feathers) proxies. Proxies in both cores indicated the onset of the recovery of penguin and fur seal populations in the early to mid-1900s, following the cessation of hunting. Additionally, our results suggest marked increases in both penguin and seal populations beginning around 1950 CE. Between the 1950s and 2019, 97% of South Georgia Island's glaciers retreated associated with recent climatic warming. This warming increased the availability of local breeding areas for king penguins, which likely explains the population rise during that time. This study deepens our understanding of the response of sub-Antarctic marine predator populations to past climate change and human exploitation, which may aid in predicting future ecosystem responses to environmental disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the impacts of changing environments on phenotypes in wild populations remains a challenge. Growth, a trait that frequently influences fitness, is difficult to study as it is influenced by many environmental variables. To address this, we used a sliding window approach to determine the time windows when sea-surface and air temperatures have the potential to affect growth of black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) on a colony in the Northeast Pacific. We examined environmental drivers influencing nestling growth using data from a long-term (21-year) study, that food supplements a portion of the colony. The associations between kittiwake growth and climatic conditions in our study indicated that warmer environmental conditions can both positively and negatively impact nestling growth parameters depending on hatching order. We found that first-hatched nestlings had a heavier maximum mass under warm air temperatures and cold sea conditions. Warmer air temperatures negatively affected the second-hatched nestling in a brood. However, when air temperatures were warm, warmer sea-surface temperatures predicted heavy, fast-growing second-hatched nestlings in contrast to what we observed for first-hatched nestlings. Food supplementation alleviated the temperature effects, and competition among nestlings influenced how strongly a variable affected growth. We identified windows that might indicate specific biological pathways through which environmental variation affected growth directly or indirectly. Overall, our windows suggest that nestlings in shared nests will be most affected by warming conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar cod and saffron cod are dominant components of the fish community in the Chukchi Sea and are ecologically important forage fishes linking plankton to upper-level consumers. In 2017, we conducted a study as part of the Arctic Integrated Ecosystem Research Program to characterize the distribution, abundance, and growth of polar cod and saffron cod early life history stages (ELHS) in late spring and late summer in the Chukchi Sea. Ship-based plankton tows showed that polar cod and saffron cod larvae were centered in Kotzebue Sound in the late spring. By late summer, polar cod juveniles were most abundant in the offshore areas of the northern Chukchi Sea, whereas saffron cod were distributed nearshore in the southern Chukchi Sea around Cape Lisburne. Empirical fish collections were paired with an individual-based biophysical transport model to examine connectivity and relate changes in seasonal distribution to potential environmental variables. Modeled drift trajectories and growth in spring for polar cod and saffron cod matched well with empirical observations, especially along the northern coastline of Kotzebue Sound, offshore of Point Hope/Cape Lisburne. Given the coherence between modeled and observed distributions, Kotzebue Sound is likely a source of gadid ELHS in the nearshore areas of the Chukchi Sea and offshore of Cape Lisburne/Point Hope, although it is not the likely source of polar cod over Hanna Shoal in the late summer. This is the first study to examine seasonal distribution, abundance, and growth of polar cod and saffron cod in the US Arctic and provides data necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate change on forage fishes in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of non-breeding distributions is a crucial component to seabird conservation, as conditions during the non-breeding period can play an important role in regulating seabird populations. Specifically, if seabirds from different colonies share the same wintering grounds, conditions in that shared region could have a widespread impact on multiple breeding populations. Red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa brevirostris) are endemic to the Bering Sea and may be especially susceptible to effects of climate change due to a restricted breeding range, small population size, and specialized diet. To examine whether red-legged kittiwakes from different breeding colonies overlapped in winter distribution and activity patterns, we used geolocation loggers to simultaneously track individuals from the two largest red-legged kittiwake breeding colonies in Alaska (separated by over 1000 km) during two consecutive non-breeding periods. We found that non-breeding activity patterns were generally similar between birds originating from the two colonies, but birds employed different migratory strategies during the early winter. Kittiwakes from Buldir Island in the western Aleutian Islands left the colony in September and immediately headed west, spending October through December around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands. In contrast, birds from St. George Island in the Pribilof Islands remained in the eastern Bering Sea or around the eastern Aleutian Islands for a couple months before traveling farther west. During late winter however, from January through March, birds from both colonies converged south of Kamchatka and east of the Kuril Islands over the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench and in the Western Subarctic Gyre before returning to their respective colonies in the spring. This late winter overlap in distributions along the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench suggests the region is a winter hotspot for red-legged kittiwakes and highlights the importance of this region for the global kittiwake population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecologists and fisheries managers are interested in monitoring economically important marine fish species and using this data to inform management strategies. Determining environmental factors that best predict changes in these populations, particularly under rapid climate change, are a priority. I illustrate the application of the least squares-based spline estimation and group LASSO (LSSGLASSO) procedure for selection of coefficient functions in single index varying coefficient models (SIVCMs) on an ecological data set that includes spatiotemporal environmental covariates suspected to play a role in the catches and weights of six groundfish species. Temporal trends in variable selection were apparent, though the selection of variables was largely unrelated to common North Pacific climate indices. These results indicate that the strength of an environmental variable's effect on a groundfish population may change over time, and not necessarily in-step with known low-frequency patterns of ocean-climate variability commonly attributable to large-scale regime shifts in the North Pacific. My application of the LSSGLASSO procedure for SIVCMs to deep water species using environmental data from various sources illustrates how variable selection with a flexible model structure can produce informative inference for remote and hard-to-reach animal populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We synthesize the historical biogeography of non-marine fauna (mammals, birds, fish, non-parasitic and parasitic invertebrates) occurring across Bering Sea islands, considering endemism, species with origins in both North America and Far East Asia, and the impacts of introduced species through the Bering region. Insular communities often constitute assemblages of unique evolutionary lineages that reflect both neutral and selective processes of diversification as a consequence of isolation and through responses to in situ environmental change. However, current knowledge of the basic distribution, ecology, and evolutionary identity of the majority of terrestrial species through the Bering Sea region is still generally lacking. A preponderance of scientific effort associated with these islands has instead focused on conservation and management of marine-associated species and economically viable biological resources. Given the critical role that terrestrial environments play in maintaining evolutionary and ecological linkages between land and sea, a greater understanding of existing biodiversity, and the biological processes that influence community integrity through this remote region is warranted. Resolving responses of resident insular species to rapidly warming Arctic climate and to modern human-associated disturbances provides valuable insight for effective management of future population trajectories and for revealing the dynamics of intra- and inter-specific connectivity across the northern hemisphere and between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The location of this region at a high-latitude cross-roads has led to a preponderance of island taxa having trans-Beringian distributions. Species associated with the Palearctic or the Nearctic occur across a strong longitudinal gradient, reflecting the role of the Bering Sea as a dispersal filter between mainland areas. Aleutian oceanic islands reflect different biogeographic histories among taxonomic groups from land-bridge islands of the Bering Sea. We discuss evidence of recent biodiversity responses to modern environmental perturbations, including continued colonisations and novel species interactions, and call for increased scientific scrutiny of terrestrial fauna across these remote outposts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'The Blob', a mass of anomalously warm water in the Northeast Pacific Ocean peaking from 2014 to 2016, caused a decrease in primary productivity with cascading effects on the marine ecosystem. Among the more obvious manifestations of the event were seabird breeding failures and mass mortality events. Here, we used corticosterone in breast feathers (fCort), grown in the winter period during migration, as an indicator of nutritional stress to investigate the impact of the Blob on two sentinel Pacific auk species (family Alcidae). Feathers were collected from breeding females over 8 years from 2010 to 2017, encompassing the Blob period. Since Pacific auks replace body feathers at sea during the migratory period, measures of fCort provide an accumulated measure of nutritional stress or allostatic load during this time. Changes in diet were also measured using δ15N and δ13C values from feathers. Relative to years prior to the Blob, the primarily zooplanktivorous Cassin's auklets (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) had elevated fCort in 2014–2017, which correlated with the occurrence of the Blob and a recovery period afterwards, with relatively stable feather isotope values. In contrast, generalist rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata) displayed stable fCort values across years and increased δ15N values during the Blob. As marine heatwaves increase in intensity and frequency due to climate change, this study provides insight into the variable response of Pacific auks to such phenomena and suggests a means for monitoring population-level responses to climatological variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the American West has long experienced strong economic growth, variation in natural amenities and mineral resources across the West has produced a diversity of economic outcomes and trends. In this paper, we assess whether there have been recent significant shifts in economic growth across the nonmetropolitan counties of the region. We find significant relative downward growth shifts in areas most abundant in natural amenities. Further analysis suggests the downward growth shifts in high-amenity counties resulted from the capitalization of the amenities into housing costs, not from diminished quality of life in the counties from growth or climate change. Both the shocks and multipliers associated with mineral resource extraction shifted across the periods. The uncertainty surrounding future climate change adjustments and volatility of mineral resource extraction suggests the need for place-based policy to maintain economic vitality in the rural West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied positive associations among seabirds and marine mammals at South Georgia on research cruises during the Austral winters of 1985, 1991 and 1993 and found statistically significant differences. We collected data on abundance and distribution, providing a critical reference for sub-Antarctic conservation in anticipation of future environmental changes. We found significant changes in the abundance of 29% of species surveyed and a consequent change in species diversity. We postulate that the resulting altered community composition may have previously unanticipated population effects on the component species, due to changes in positive interactions among species which use each other as cues to the presence of prey. We found a near threefold reduction in spatial overlap among vertebrate predators, associated with warming sea temperatures. As the strength and opportunity for positive associations decreases in the future, feeding success may be negatively impacted. In this way, environmental changes may disproportionately impact predator abundances and such changes are likely already underway, as Southern Ocean temperatures have increased substantially since our surveys. Of course the changes we describe are not solely due to changing sea temperature or any other single cause—many factors are important and we do not claim to have removed these from consideration. Rather, we report previously undocumented changes in positive associations among species, and argue these changes may continue into the future, given near-certain continued increases in climate-related changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seabirds are higher-order predators in the marine ecosystem and hence good indicators of the marine environment. Although the North Pacific has been the focal area for investigations of seabird faunal dynamics, the Pleistocene seabird fossil record has been scarce in the western North Pacific. Here, remains of 32 species of seabirds and related taxa (Anatidae, Podicipedidae, Gaviidae, Diomedeidae, Hydrobatidae, Procellariidae, Phalacrocoracidae, Scolopacidae, Laridae, and Alcidae) are reported from the middle–late Pleistocene Shiriya local fauna, northeastern Japan (Marine Isotope Stages 9 and 5e, ~ 320 and ~ 120 ka). This is the first substantial Pleistocene seabird fauna reported from the region so far, and includes globally first fossil records for Cepphus carbo and extant species of Aethia. The fauna also includes three extinct species, Shiriyanetta hasegawai, Mancalla? sp., and Uria onoi, the former two of which were flightless. The occurrence of immature individuals indicates that at least two species had nearby breeding sites. The seabird populations had probably been sustained by enhanced oceanic productivity in this area during their age, but oceanographic fluctuations in the subsequent glacial period, including the probable disappearance of a nearby oceanic front, would have seriously affected their subsistence, likely causing local extinctions of some species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a challenge to the management of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Estuarine ecosystems in particular are exposed to a broad range of environmental changes caused by the effects of climate change both on land and in the ocean, and such ecosystems have also had a long history of human disturbance from over-exploitation and habitat changes. In this study, we examine the effects of climate change and fishing on the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) ecosystem using Ecopath with Ecosim. Our results show that changes in net primary production and ocean warming are the dominant climatic factors impacting biomass and fisheries productivity in the PRE. Additionally, physiological changes of fishes and invertebrates that are induced by climate change were projected to be modified by trophic interactions. Overall, our study suggests that the combined effects of climate change and fishing will reduce the potential fisheries catches in the PRE. Reducing fishing efforts can reduce the impacts of climate change on selected functional groups; however, some prey fishes are expected to experience higher predation mortality and consequently decreases in biomass under low fishing intensity scenarios. Thus, our study highlights the non-linearity of the responses of estuarine ecosystems when climate change interacts with other human stressors. In this study, the whole-ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim) is used to examine the effects of climate change and fishing on a highly developed estuarine ecosystem (Pearl River Estuary, PRE) in the subtropical western Pacific. The oceans variables are extracted from the global earth system model (GFDL ESM2M), including changes in sea surface temperature (SST), hydrogen ion concentration (pH), dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and net primary production (NPP) under the two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. We developed a EwE model of the PRE ecosystem and simulated the effects of changing ocean conditions under alternative climate change scenarios as well as three fishing scenarios on the biodiversity and fisheries productivity of the PRE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical environments of high-latitude systems are rapidly changing. For example, the Chukchi Sea has experienced increased water temperatures, advection from the Bering Sea, declines in sea-ice concentration, earlier spring ice retreat, and delayed fall ice formation. This physical restructuring is expected to impact ecosystem structure and function. In this study, a series of bio-oceanographic research surveys were conducted in the summers of 2010, 2011, and 2012 to characterize the physical environment and to examine the influence of physical forcing on zooplankton community distribution and abundance. Results revealed yearly advection from the Bering Sea influenced zooplankton community structure, but this influence became less apparent in the northeastern Chukchi due to changes in current speeds and patterns. Decreased advection and later ice retreat in colder years resulted in zooplankton communities that exhibited more diversity, had higher abundances of the lipid-rich copepod Calanus glacialis, and were less closely related to water masses advected from the south. These findings suggest more localized processes are influencing zooplankton community structure in the Chukchi Sea. Increased inflow of water into the Chukchi is predicted with increased warming in the Arctic and changes in food-web structure and function are likely to result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003–2012) to a future time period (2030–2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale macro-algal blooms of Ulva prolifera (also called green tides) have appeared each summer since 2008 in the western Yellow Sea. In this study, we investigated the temporal variability in zooplankton community in the western Yellow Sea and its possible links to green tides using data from a long-term plankton survey off the coast of Qingdao, China. Environmental conditions observed in the study area during the green tide period (GTP: June-August, 2008-2013) were compared to the non-green tide period (NGTP: June-August, 2005-2007), to support the contention that variations observed in zooplankton community may be attributed to the green tides, as opposed to natural climatic or environmental variations. Zooplankton assemblage structure observed during the GTP was then compared to the NGTP. Significant variations were detected both in zooplankton abundance and assemblage structure between the two defined periods. The abundance of zooplankton, mainly copepods, was significantly decreased during the GTP. Meanwhile, the relative abundance of copepods decreased by approximately 10% and that of gelatinous zooplankton, including appendicularians, chaetognaths, and medusae, almost doubled (ca. increased by 6.4%). The dominant species of meroplankton completely changed, specifically, polychaeta, and echinoderm larvae were more dominant than decapod and bivalve larvae. With regard to zooplankton size structure, the NGTP showed a higher size diversity with more small-sized organisms, while the GTP showed a lower size diversity in the community. According to general linear models, the interannual variation in summer zooplankton abundance was significantly correlated with green tides. These results indicate that the temporal changes in zooplankton community may have a close link to the green tides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of boreal marine species are expected to invade the warming Arctic Ocean with the potential to displace endemic species. We provide first evidence that Pacific sand lance ( Ammodytes hexapterus) is expanding its range in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, a region far outside the species temperate-boreal traditional range south of the Bering Strait. To the best of our knowledge, supported by local Inuit knowledge, the species was not present in the area until the present decade. We observed an increasing density of larval Pacific sand lance with time over the 2011-2016 period, suggesting that environmental conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for the species to reproduce in the Central Canadian Arctic. The northward distribution change of Pacific sand lance is occurring earlier than predicted by current models and could trigger abrupt shifts in Arctic marine food webs if the boreal invader displaces polar cod, a key prey species for top predators in Arctic marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine ecological indicators can be used to assess the condition of the pelagic ecosystems. The bloom onset provides a warning bell for possible changes in trophic interactions and biogeochemical processes. However, depicting the phenology of phytoplankton blooms at high latitudes, where long-term observations are sparse or unavailable, is not a straightforward task. A data-interpolating empirical orthogonal function algorithm was applied to daily satellite-retrieved chlorophyll- a images to produce a long-term (1998-2014) and cloud-free data set over the North Water (NOW) polynya. The seasonal bloom was modeled using a multi-Gaussian approach from which a baseline of phenological characteristics was extracted. The correlation analysis highlights the influence of environmental factors, such as sea surface temperature, cloud fraction, wind stress, and sea-ice concentration, in modulating the bloom start date, its duration, and amplitude. The year-to-year variability in bloom onset appears to be controlled by a delicate balance between oceanographic and meteorological conditions. Blooms last longer during years characterized by a longer open-water period and are shorter during those characterized by greater sea-ice coverage. Noteworthy is the decrease in phytoplankton bloom amplitude over the 17 years examined. Collectively, these outcomes depict the NOW as a climate-sensitive region in which the pelagic marine ecosystem seems to be going toward a decline in chlorophyll- a concentrations. Satellite time series are still too short to differentiate between inter-annual variability, inter-decadal variability, and climate change signal. Should these changes persist; however, the NOW may no longer act as a productive regional oasis supporting thriving populations of zooplankton and top predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beached bird surveys have been widely used to monitor the impact of oil pollution in the oceans. However, separating the combined effects of oil pollution, environmental variables and methodological aspects of beach monitoring on seabird stranding patterns is a challenging task. The effects of a comprehensive set of oceanographic and climatic variables and oil pollution on seabird strandings in a tropical area of Brazil were investigated herein, using two robust and innovative methods: Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Structural Equation Modeling. We assessed strandings of four resident seabird species along 480 km of beaches divided into 11 sampling areas, between November 2010 and September 2013. We found that increasing the distance from the nearest breeding island reduce the seabird stranding events. Storm activity and biological productivity were the most important factors affecting the stranding events of brown boobies Sula leucogaster, Cabot’s terns Thalasseus acuflavidus and kelp gulls Larus dominicanus. These species are also indirectly affected by warm tropical waters, which reduce chlorophyll-a concentrations. Beach surveys are, thus, useful to investigate the mortality rates of resident species near breeding sites, where individuals are more abundant and exposed to local factors associated with at-sea mortality. In contrast, conservation actions and monitoring programs for far-ranging seabird species are needed in more distant foraging areas. Furthermore, beach monitoring programs investigating the impact of oil pollution on seabirds need to account for the effects of environmental factors on stranding patterns. The present study also demonstrated that seabirds inhabiting tropical coastal waters are sensitive to climate conditions such as adverse weather, which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in next decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Narrow foraging specialization may increase the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change. The red-legged kittiwake (Rissa brevirostris) is endemic to the Bering Sea and has experienced drastic population fluctuations in recent decades, presumably due to climate-driven changes in food resources. Red-legged kittiwakes are presumed to be a nocturnal surface-foraging seabird that feed almost entirely on deep water Myctophidae fishes. However, there is little empirical evidence confirming their nocturnal foraging activity during the breeding season. This study investigated the foraging behavior of red-legged kittiwakes by combining GPS tracking, accelerometry, and dietary analyses at the world’s largest breeding colony of red-legged kittiwakes on St. George I. GPS tracking of 5 individuals revealed that 82.5% of non-flight behavior (including foraging and resting) occurred over the ocean basin (bottom depth >1,000 m). Acceleration data from 4 birds showed three types of behaviors during foraging trips: (1) flight, characterized by regular wing flapping, (2) resting on water, characterized by non-active behavior, and (3) foraging, when wing flapping was irregular. The proportions of both foraging and resting behaviors were higher at night (14.1 ± 7.1% and 20.8 ± 14.3%) compared to those during the day (6.5 ± 3.0% and 1.7 ± 2.7%). The mean duration of foraging (2.4 ± 2.9 min) was shorter than that of flight between prey patches (24.2 ± 53.1 min). Dietary analyses confirmed myctophids as the dominant prey (100% by occurrence and 98.4 ± 2.4% by wet-weight). Although the sample size was limited, these results suggest that breeding red-legged kittiwakes concentrated their foraging on myctophids available at the surface during nighttime in deep water regions. We propose that the diel patterns and ephemeral nature of their foraging activity reflected the availability of myctophids. Such foraging specialization may exacerbate the vulnerability of red-legged kittiwakes to climate change in the Bering Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar bears in the Beaufort (SB) and Chukchi (CS) Seas experience different environments due primarily to a longer history of sea ice loss in the Beaufort Sea. Ecological differences have been identified as a possible reason for the generally poorer body condition and reproduction of Beaufort polar bears compared to those from the Chukchi, but the influence of exposure to other stressors remains unknown. We use molecular technology, quantitative PCR, to identify gene transcription differences among polar bears from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas as well as captive healthy polar bears. We identified significant transcriptional differences among a priori groups (i.e., captive bears, SB 2012, SB 2013, CS 2013) for ten of the 14 genes of interest (i.e., CaM, HSP70, CCR3, TGFβ, COX2, THRα, T-bet, Gata3, CD69, and IL17); transcription levels of DRβ, IL1β, AHR, and Mx1 did not differ among groups. Multivariate analysis also demonstrated separation among the groups of polar bears. Specifically, we detected transcript profiles consistent with immune function impairment in polar bears from the Beaufort Sea, when compared with Chukchi and captive polar bears. Although there is no strong indication of differential exposure to contaminants or pathogens between CS and SB bears, there are clearly differences in important transcriptional responses between populations. Further investigation is warranted to refine interpretation of potential effects of described stress-related conditions for the SB population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chukchi Sea shelf is a complex transition zone between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, on which climate variation may have a profound impact. We examined summer zooplankton community structure of the western Chukchi Sea in Alaskan and Russian waters during 2004, 2009, 2010 and 2012 within the ongoing Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic program. The four study years were very different both in water mass properties and in zooplankton community structure. A 'warm' year with an early ice retreat and highest water temperatures occurred in 2004, whereas the years 2009-2012 were 'cold' with a later-than-average ice retreat and colder average water temperatures during the sampling period. The extent and prominence of different water masses (Bering Sea-Anadyr Water, Alaska Coastal Current, Siberian Coastal Current, Resident Chukchi Water) within the Chukchi Sea varied between years, which was in turn reflected within the zooplankton communities. Community structure was highly correlated with water mass properties, with bottom temperature being the most significant factor influencing communities. The 'cold' summers of 2009-2012 had nearly twice the biomass and abundance of zooplankton compared with the 'warm' summer of 2004. Biomass was dominated by the large copepod Calanus glacialis believed to originate from the Bering Sea, and abundance was dominated by small shelf species of copepods, such as Pseudocalanus spp., Acartia spp. and Oithona similis. We discuss the implications of the inter-annual variability of planktonic communities within the Chukchi Sea and the possible effects of longer-term climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complete diet composition structure of the most numerous planktivorous sea bird, little auk ( Alle alle), in the European Arctic, is still not fully recognized. Although regular constituents of little auk chick diets, the copepods, Calanus glacialis and C. finmarchicus have been previously relatively well described, more taxa were frequent ingredients of the bird's meals. Therefore, the role of the little auks supplementary diet components (SDCs) at two colonies in the Svalbard Archipelago, Hornsund and Magdalenefjorden, in 2007-2009, is a main subject of this comparative study. Because the SDCs often consisted of scarce but large zooplankters, this investigation was focused on biomass as a proxy of the SDCs' energy input. Although the total biomass of the food delivered to chicks in both colonies was similar, in Magdalenefjorden, the proportion of SDCs was twice that found in Hornsund. The main SDCs in Hornsund were Decapoda larvae (with predominating Pagurus pubescens) and Thysanoessa inermis, whereas the main SDCs in Magdalenefjorden were C. hyperboreus and Apherusa glacialis. Previous investigations, which indicated lipid richness of SDCs, together with our ecological results from the colonies, suggest that this category might play a compensatory role in little auk chick diets. The ability to forage on diverse taxa may help the birds to adapt to ongoing Arctic ecosystem changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The marine life of Canada's Pacific marine ecosystems, adjacent to the province of British Columbia, may be relatively responsive to rapid oceanographic and environmental change associated with global climate change due to uniquely evolved plasticities and resiliencies as well as particular sensitivities and vulnerabilities, given this dynamic and highly textured natural setting. These marine ecosystems feature complex interfaces of coastal geomorphology, climate, and oceanography, including a dynamic oceanographic and ecological transition zone formed by the divergence of the North Pacific Current into the Alaskan coastal current and the California Current, and by currents transporting warm tropical waters from the south. Despite long-term warming in the region, sea surface temperatures in Canada's Pacific have been anomalously cool since 2007 with La Niña-type conditions prevailing as we enter a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, possibly masking future warming. When warmer El Niño conditions prevail, many southern species invade, strongly impacting local species and reorganizing biological communities. Acidification and deoxygenation are anomalously high in the region due to the weakening ventilation of subsurface waters resulting from increased stratification. A broad spectrum of biological responses to these changes are expected. Non-climate anthropogenic stressors affect the capacity of biota to adapt to climate changes. It will be challenging to forecast the responses of particular species, and to map climate vulnerabilities accurately enough to help prioritize and guide adaptation planning. It will be more challenging to develop forecasts that account for indirect effects within biological communities and the intricate and apparently non-deterministic behaviours of highly complex and variable marine ecosystems, such as those of Canada's Pacific. We recommend and outline national and regional climate assessments in Canada and adaptation planning and implementation including integrated coastal management and marine spatial planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a life-cycle model for the population dynamics of a large marine fish population, Northeast Arctic cod, to disentangle the effects of density-independent and density-dependent processes on early life-stages, and to quantify the strength of compensatory density dependence in the population. The model incorporates information from scientific surveys and commercial harvest, and dynamically links multiple effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on all life-stages, from eggs to spawners. Using a state-space approach we account for observation error and stochasticity in the population dynamics. Our findings highlight the importance of density-dependent survival in juveniles, indicating that this period of the life cycle largely determines the compensatory capacity of the population. Density regulation at the juvenile life-stage dampens the impact of stochastic processes operating earlier in life such as environmental impacts on the production of eggs and climate-dependent survival of larvae. The timing of stochastic versus regulatory processes thus plays a crucial role in determining variability in adult abundance. Quantifying the contribution of environmental stochasticity and compensatory mechanisms in determining population abundance is essential for assessing population responses to climate change and exploitation by humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the last century was associated with spectacular growth of many wild Pacific salmon stocks in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, apparently through bottom-up forcing linking meteorology to ocean physics, water temperature, and plankton production. One species in particular, pink salmon, became so numerous by the 1990s that they began to dominate other species of salmon for prey resources and to exert top-down control in the open ocean ecosystem. Information from long-term monitoring of seabirds in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea reveals that the sphere of influence of pink salmon is much larger than previously known. Seabirds, pink salmon, other species of salmon, and by extension other higher-order predators, are tightly linked ecologically and must be included in international management and conservation policies for sustaining all species that compete for common, finite resource pools. These data further emphasize that the unique 2-y cycle in abundance of pink salmon drives interannual shifts between two alternate states of a complex marine ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temporal and spatial dynamics of primary and secondary biomass/production in the Barents Sea since the late 1990s are examined using remote sensing data, observations and a coupled physical-biological model. Field observations of mesozooplankton biomass, and chlorophyll a data from transects (different seasons) and large-scale surveys (autumn) were used for validation of the remote sensing products and modeling results. The validation showed that satellite data are well suited to study temporal and spatial dynamics of chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea and that the model is an essential tool for secondary production estimates. Temperature, open water area, chlorophyll a, and zooplankton biomass show large interannual variations in the Barents Sea. The climatic variability is strongest in the northern and eastern parts. The moderate increase in net primary production evident in this study is likely an ecosystem response to changes in climate during the same period. Increased open water area and duration of open water season, which are related to elevated temperatures, appear to be the key drivers of the changes in annual net primary production that has occurred in the northern and eastern areas of this ecosystem. The temporal and spatial variability in zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled largely by predation pressure. In the southeastern Barents Sea, statistically significant linkages were observed between chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass, as well as between net primary production and fish biomass, indicating bottom-up trophic interactions in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Walleye pollock is the second most extensively fished species in the world. The major fishing grounds include the Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Large-scale fishing started in the 1960s and continues to date with average annual landings over this 50-year period of 1.5 million tons. Yet over this period catches were characterized by considerable volatility. This volatility makes rational management of stock and planning of annual fishing activities difficult. The changes in annual catches correlate with the changes in the biomass of walleye pollock. Existing data suggest a close link between climate change in the northern Pacific and biomass, which allows quantitative estimates of future trends in the biomass, and consequently annual catch, of walleye pollock. Cooling of the northern Pacific is expected to increase the biomass in the Sea of Japan and decrease it in the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. The opposite is predicted to occur if the northern Pacific experiences warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have reviewed the effects of long-term climatic/oceanic conditions on the growth, survival, production dynamics, and distribution of Hokkaido chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta in Japan during the period 1945-2005 using path analysis, back-calculation, and scale analyses, and applied a prediction method based on the SRES-A1B scenario of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. The populations of Hokkaido chum salmon were found to have had high growth rates at age 1 year since the late 1980s. Path analysis indicated that the growth at age 1 year in the Okhotsk Sea was directly affected by warm sea surface temperature associated with global warming, with the increased growth at age 1 year resulting in higher rates of survival and large population sizes. Predictions on the global warming effects on the chum salmon were (1) decreased carrying capacity and distribution area, (2) occurrence of a strong density-dependent effect, and (3) loss of migration route to the Sea of Okhotsk, especially for Hokkaido chum salmon. We have also outlined the future challenges of establishing a sustainable conservation management scheme for salmon that include adaptive management and precautionary principles, as well as conservation of natural spawning populations and recovery of natural river ecosystems in Japan despite the warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) have experienced substantial changes in the seasonal availability of sea ice habitat in parts of their range, including the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. In this study, we compared the body size, condition, and recruitment of polar bears captured in the Chukchi and Bering Seas ( CS) between two periods (1986-1994 and 2008-2011) when declines in sea ice habitat occurred. In addition, we compared metrics for the CS population 2008-2011 with those of the adjacent southern Beaufort Sea ( SB) population where loss in sea ice habitat has been associated with declines in body condition, size, recruitment, and survival. We evaluated how variation in body condition and recruitment were related to feeding ecology. Comparing habitat conditions between populations, there were twice as many reduced ice days over continental shelf waters per year during 2008-2011 in the SB than in the CS. CS polar bears were larger and in better condition, and appeared to have higher reproduction than SB bears. Although SB and CS bears had similar diets, twice as many bears were fasting in spring in the SB than in the CS. Between 1986-1994 and 2008-2011, body size, condition, and recruitment indices in the CS were not reduced despite a 44-day increase in the number of reduced ice days. Bears in the CS exhibited large body size, good body condition, and high indices of recruitment compared to most other populations measured to date. Higher biological productivity and prey availability in the CS relative to the SB, and a shorter recent history of reduced sea ice habitat, may explain the maintenance of condition and recruitment of CS bears. Geographic differences in the response of polar bears to climate change are relevant to range-wide forecasts for this and other ice-dependent species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article describes a study employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, the study estimated the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity. The study used results of the climate-model CMIP3 dataset developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report to 1) estimate a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, 2) map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and 3) perform a detailed, economy-wide, 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interdependent lower-48 states for the years 2010 through 2050. The analysis determined the interacting industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. When compared to a baseline economic forecast, the calculations produced an average risk of damage of $1 trillion to the U.S. economy from climate change over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Added uncertainty would increase the estimated risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO at a rate of 1% per year until CO reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological studies relating population parameters to climate conditions are limited by a lack of experimental control systems and rely instead on correlative evidence to draw inferences about how populations respond to environmental forcing. Consequently, some correlations turn out to be spurious and not ecologically meaningful. To strengthen inferences, multiple populations may be examined simultaneously to confirm whether relationships can be generalized across multiple systems; however, this assumes that populations respond similarly to climate drivers, ignoring the potential for ecological complexity. Using data on eight sockeye salmon populations from southwestern Alaska, we constructed a series of models based on ecological hypotheses, relating salmon population productivity to climate factors experienced at different life stages. We modeled populations at a range of organizational scales, from distinct populations, to populations grouped by common nursery lake, to all populations within a watershed, and determined the relative statistical support for climate drivers at each scale. In general, warmer lake and sea surface temperatures in the summer coincided with increased productivity of these populations, but the most sensitive life-stage for climate effects varied among populations, particularly among nursery lakes. The best model when considering all populations together, despite strong statistical support, failed to represent the complexity which became evident when populations were modeled by common nursery lake, or independently. These results emphasize that the most appropriate organizational scale to model salmon stocks will depend on specific management, scientific, or conservation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil exploration activities are rapidly increasing in Arctic marine areas with potentially higher risks of oil spills to the environment. Water temperatures in Arctic marine areas are simultaneously increasing as a result of global warming. Potential effects of a combination of increased water temperature and exposure to the PAH pyrene were investigated on fecal pellet and, egg production and hatching success of two copepod species, Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus glacialis, sampled in Disko Bay, Greenland on 23-25 April 2008. The two species were exposed daily to nominal pyrene concentrations of 0-0.01-0.1-1-10-100 nM at water temperatures of 0.5, 5 and 8°C for 9 and 7 days, respectively. Daily measurements of faecal pellet production, egg production and hatching showed different responses of the two species to the applied stressors. When temperature increased, low concentrations of pyrene caused a decrease in faecal pellet production by C. finmarchicus, whereas C. glacialis faecal pellet production showed no negative response to pyrene exposure when temperatures increased. Pyrene exposure decreased egg production of C. finmarchicus at all temperatures, but the species was more sensitive at 0.5 and 8°C. A lag period of 1 day before egg production began was prolonged with several days when warmer water was combined with pyrene exposure. Egg production by C. glacialis was only negatively affected by pyrene in a dose-dependent manner at 0.5°C. Hatching success in both species was not affected by pyrene, where increased water temperatures led to a higher hatching success. In conclusion, C. glacialis seemed to be the less sensitive of the two species to the stress combination of increased water temperature and pyrene exposure. As a consequence of the differential responses of the two species, their competition can be impaired with a consequent impact on energy transfer between trophic levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series of satellite-derived surface chlorophyll- a concentration ( Chl) in 1997-2009 were used to examine for trends in the timing of the annual phytoplankton bloom maximum. Significant trends towards earlier phytoplankton blooms were detected in about 11% of the area of the Arctic Ocean with valid Chl data, e.g. in the Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, Baffin Sea, off the coasts of Greenland, in the Kara Sea and around Novaya Zemlya. These areas roughly coincide with areas where ice concentration has decreased in early summer (June), thus making the earlier blooms possible. In the selected areas, the annual phytoplankton bloom maximum has advanced by up to 50 days which may have consequences for the Arctic food chain and carbon cycling. Outside the Arctic, the annual Chl maximum has become earlier in boreal North Pacific but later in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pattern of occurrence and recent changes in the distribution of macrobenthic organisms in fjordic and coastal (nearshore) Arctic waters are reviewed and future changes are hypothesized. The biodiversity patterns observed are demonstrated to be contextual, depending on the specific region of the Arctic or habitat type. Two major areas of biotic advection are indicated (the North Atlantic Current along Scandinavia to Svalbard and the Bering Strait area) where larvae and adult animals are transported from the species-rich sub-Arctic areas to species-poor Arctic areas. In those Arctic areas, increased temperature associated with increased advection in recent decades brings more boreal-subarctic species, increasing the local biodiversity when local cold-water species may be suppressed. Two other large coastal areas are little influenced by advected waters; the Siberian shores and the coasts of the Canadian Archipelago. There, local Arctic fauna are exposed to increasing ocean temperature, decreasing salinity and a reduction in ice cover with unpredictable effect for biodiversity. One the one hand, benthic species in Arctic fjords are exposed to increased siltation (from glacial meltwater) and salinity decreases, which together may lead to habitat homogenization and a subsequent decrease in biodiversity. On the other hand, the innermost basins of Arctic fjords are able to maintain pockets of very cold, dense, saline water and thus may act as refugia for cold-water species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ic sea ice has changed dramatically, especially during the last decade and continued declines in extent and thickness are expected for the decades to come. Some ice-associated marine mammals are already showing distribution shifts, compromised body condition and declines in production/abundance in response to sea-ice declines. In contrast, temperate marine mammal species are showing northward expansions of their ranges, which are likely to cause competitive pressure on some endemic Arctic species, as well as putting them at greater risk of predation, disease and parasite infections. The negative impacts observed to date within Arctic marine mammal populations are expected to continue and perhaps escalate over the coming decade, with continued declines in seasonal coverage of sea ice. This situation presents a significant risk to marine biodiversity among endemic Arctic marine mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to summarise: (1) observed 20th-century and projected 21st-century changes in key components of the Arctic climate system and (2) probable impacts on the Arctic marine environment, with emphasis on the vulnerabilities of marine and sea ice-based ecosystems. Multi-decadal to century-scale observational data sets of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice indicate that the two pronounced 20th-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. Arctic sea-ice coverage has decreased ~8% in the past quarter century, with record- and near-record low summer ice in observed recent years. A set of coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean global model simulations quantifies the expected changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice through the twenty-first century. Projected are polar-amplified increases in SAT and reductions in sea ice, with a predominantly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer projected before the end of this century. A range of potential consequences of Arctic warming and a shrinking ice cover are foreseen. First, exposure of vast areas of the Arctic Ocean would greatly alter the coastal and shelf marine environment. Second, broad changes in the marine and sea ice-based ecosystem-e.g. changes in plankton due to less ice and greater inflow of melt water-could negatively impact Arctic and sub-Arctic marine biodiversity, not least the vulnerable ice-based mammals such as polar bears. Third, there would be a larger open area for potential Arctic fisheries, as well as increased offshore activities and marine transportation, including the Northern Sea Route north of Siberia. Changes in the physical environment of the Arctic Ocean are thus expected to be dramatic, and although projecting ecosystem changes several decades into twenty-first century is challenging, the impact of diminishing sea ice on Arctic marine and sea ice-based ecosystems will certainly be transformative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering the rate and distribution of primary production in the world's oceans. Primary production is critical to maintaining biodiversity and supporting fishery catches, but predicting the response of populations to primary production change is complicated by predation and competition interactions. We simulated the effects of change in primary production on diverse marine ecosystems across a wide latitudinal range in Australia using the marine food web model Ecosim. We link models of primary production of lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and benthic producers) under climate change with Ecosim to predict changes in fishery catch, fishery value, biomass of animals of conservation interest, and indicators of community composition. Under a plausible climate change scenario, primary production will increase around Australia and generally this benefits fisheries catch and value and leads to increased biomass of threatened marine animals such as turtles and sharks. However, community composition is not strongly affected. Sensitivity analyses indicate overall positive linear responses of functional groups to primary production change. Responses are robust to the ecosystem type and the complexity of the model used. However, model formulations with more complex predation and competition interactions can reverse the expected responses for some species, resulting in catch declines for some fished species and localized declines of turtle and marine mammal populations under primary productivity increases. We conclude that climate-driven primary production change needs to be considered by marine ecosystem managers and more specifically, that production increases can simultaneously benefit fisheries and conservation. Greater focus on incorporating predation and competition interactions into models will significantly improve the ability to identify species and industries most at risk from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central-place foraging seabirds increase food-loads and decrease meal frequency when they forage in areas that are distant from the breeding colony. In 2001–2002, we studied the seasonal changes in at-sea distribution, food-load mass, meal frequency, and fledging mass in rhinoceros auklets ( Cerorhinca monocerata), which forage in coastal waters during the day and feed their chicks at night. In both years, greater numbers of auklets were observed flying in northern waters that are more distant from the colony in June (65 km) and July (65–66 km) than in May (38–47 km). In July of both years, many auklets flew northward across the transect set 65–120 km north of the colony at sunrise; the birds returned south again at sunset, indicating that they foraged in waters outside the study area. This seasonal northward movement of the foraging area may reflect the migration of their main prey item, the Japanese anchovy ( Engraulis japonicus), which move with the Tsushima Warm Current flowing from the southern Sea of Japan. Food-load mass did not increase seasonally. In both years, the estimated daily meal frequency was lower in July than in May or June, partly because of the increased foraging distance in July. Late-hatched chicks also displayed lighter fledging masses than early chicks in both years. We suggest that late breeders are required to forage at great distances for longer periods, which may result in decreased meal frequency and lighter fledging mass of their chicks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  Ireland’s geographic location on the western fringe of the European continent, together with its island status and impoverished avifauna, provides a unique opportunity to observe changes in bird migration and distribution patterns in response to changing climatic conditions. Spring temperatures have increased in western Europe over the past 30 years in line with reported global warming. These have been shown, at least in part, to be responsible for changes in the timing of life cycle events (phenology) of plants and animals. In order to investigate the response of bird species in Ireland to changes in temperature, we examined ornithological records of trans-Saharan migrants over the 31-year period 1969–1999. Analysis of the data revealed that two discrete climatic phenomena produced different responses in summer migrant bird species. Firstly, a number of long-distance migrants showed a significant trend towards earlier arrival. This trend was evident in some species and was found to be a response to increasing spring air temperature particularly in the month of March. Secondly, (1) a step change in the pattern of occurrences of non-breeding migrant bird species, and (2) an increase in the ringing data of migrant species were found to correlate with a step change in temperature in 1987–1988. These results indicate that, for migrant bird species, the impact of a sudden change in temperature can be as important as any long-term monotonic trend, and we suggest that the impact of step change events merits further investigation on a wider range of species and across a greater geographical range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and climate variability affect risk from contaminants by changing exposure to chemicals, either through the alteration of pathways or through alteration of environmental concentrating mechanisms. The alteration of pathways is affected by changing the balance between transport and deposition. Although the influence of temperature on multimedia partitioning can be modelled successfully, estimating alteration in other climate components such as distribution and form of precipitation provides a much greater challenge. To understand how climate change affects contaminant concentrations, we distinguish two types of environmental concentrating processes — solvent switching and solvent depletion. The first process, which is simply chemical partitioning, runs spontaneously toward equilibrium. This process alone can explain hemispheric-scale distributions of hexachlorocyclohexane, which partitions strongly into water, and high concentrations of organochlorines at the bottom of aquatic foodwebs. The latter process involves the maintenance of contaminant burdens during the loss of solvent, with the aquatic foodweb providing one of the better-known examples. Solvent reducing processes can produce contaminant concentrations well above thermodynamic equilibrium with a number of important examples provided by phase changes in water (freezing, snow melting). These solvent-reducing processes, which are poorly studied, provide some of the best circumstances for climate change to produce alteration in persistent organic pollutants exposure pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated whether annual adult survival of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla), a small planktivorous seabird, covaried with large-scale oceanographic conditions in the North Pacific ocean during 1990–2000. Adult Least Auklets (n=358 total) were captured near their nest sites, marked with plastic color bands, and survival estimates were based on color band resightings at their breeding colony. Survival estimates and relationships between survival and three large-scale indices of climatic conditions that correlate with oceanography: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI), and North Pacific Index (NPI) were evaluated using program MARK. The best models included: (1) two groups of birds, defined by ease of resighting, that differed in recapture rate (p) but not survival rate (φ); and (2) models that allowed for survival rates to differ in the year immediately after first capture from all subsequent years (structurally an age-model). Both of these model structures effectively explained (i.e. removed) sources of heterogeneity in the data set. For Least Auklet survival, the best fitting model was a two-age model incorporating the covariate NPI (average value for the period auklets were at sea, August – April), [φ(age1, age2×NPI), p(g)]. The annual survival rate varied from 0.747±0.075 SE in 1992–1993 to 0.953±0.052 in 1991–1992 (based on the model [φ(age1, age2×t), p(g)]) and averaged 0.873±0.037 over the study period. Least Auklet annual survival covaried with continuous variation in large-scale climatic conditions. Our results point to oceanographic conditions that relate to climate change as crucial to the status of auklet populations, notwithstanding conservation measures taken to control introduced predators, oil spills, human disturbance and other anthropogenic sources of mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]