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In the modern northern Indian Ocean, biological productivity is intimately linked to near-surface oceanographic dynamics forced by the South Asian, or Indian, monsoon. In the late Pleistocene, this strong seasonal signal is transferred to the sedimentary record in the form of strong variance in the precession band (19–23 kyr), because precession dominates low-latitude insolation variations and drives seasonal contrast in oceanographic conditions. In addition, internal climate system feedbacks (e.g. ice-sheet albedo, carbon cycle, topography) play a key role in monsoon variability. Little is known about orbital-scale monsoon variability in the pre-Pleistocene, when atmospheric CO 2 levels and global temperatures were higher. In addition, many questions remain open regarding the timing of the initiation and intensification of the South Asian monsoon during the Miocene, an interval of significant global climate change that culminated in bipolar glaciation. Here, we present new high-resolution (<1 kyr) records of export productivity and sediment accumulation from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1443 in the southernmost part of the Bay of Bengal spanning the late Miocene (9 to 5 million years ago). Underpinned by a new orbitally tuned benthic isotope stratigraphy, we use X-ray fluorescence-derived biogenic barium variations to discern productivity trends and rhythms. Results show strong eccentricity-modulated precession-band productivity variations throughout the late Miocene, interpreted to reflect insolation forcing of summer monsoon wind strength in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On long timescales, our data support the interpretation that South Asian monsoon winds were already established by 9 Ma in the equatorial sector of the Indian Ocean, with no apparent intensification over the latest Miocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Atmospheric mineral dust aerosols affect Earth’s radiative balance and are an important climate forcing and feedback mechanism. Dust is argued to have played an important role in past natural climate changes through glacial cycles, yet temporal and spatial dust variability remain poorly constrained, with scientific understanding of uncertainties associated with radiative perturbations due to mineral dust classified as “very low”. To advance understanding of the dust cycle, we present a high-resolution dust record from the Red Sea, sourced principally from Arabia, with a precise chronology relative to global sea level/ice volume variability. Our record correlates well with a high-resolution Asian dust record from the Chinese Loess Plateau. Importing our age model from the Red Sea to the Chinese Loess Plateau provides a first detailed millennial-scale age model for the Chinese loess, which has been notoriously difficult to date at this resolution and provides a basis for inter-regional correlation of Chinese dust records. We observe a high baseline of dust emissions from Arabia and China, even through interglacials, with strong superimposed millennial-scale variability. Conversely, the distal EPICA Dome C Antarctic ice core record, which is widely used to calculate the radiative impact of dust variations, appears biased to sharply delineated glacial/interglacial contrasts. Calculations based on this Antarctic dust record will therefore overestimate the radiative contrast of atmospheric dust loadings on glacial/interglacial timescales. Additional differences between Arabian/Asian and circum-Saharan records reveal that climate models could be improved by avoiding ‘global mean’ dust considerations and instead including large-scale regions with different dust source variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Studies of past glacial cycles yield critical information about climate and sea-level (ice-volume) variability, including the sensitivity of climate to radiative change, and impacts of crustal rebound on sea-level reconstructions for past interglacials. Here we identify significant differences between the last and penultimate glacial maxima (LGM and PGM) in terms of global volume and distribution of land ice, despite similar temperatures and radiative forcing. Our analysis challenges conventional views of relationships between global ice volume, sea level, seawater oxygen isotope values, and deep-sea temperature, and supports the potential presence of large floating Arctic ice shelves during the PGM. The existence of different glacial ‘modes’ calls for focussed research on the complex processes behind ice-age development. We present a glacioisostatic assessment to demonstrate how a different PGM ice-sheet configuration might affect sea-level estimates for the last interglacial. Results suggest that this may alter existing last interglacial sea-level estimates, which often use an LGM-like ice configuration, by several metres (likely upward). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]