12 results on '"Goetz SJ"'
Search Results
2. Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests.
- Author
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Anderegg WRL, Trugman AT, Badgley G, Anderson CM, Bartuska A, Ciais P, Cullenward D, Field CB, Freeman J, Goetz SJ, Hicke JA, Huntzinger D, Jackson RB, Nickerson J, Pacala S, and Randerson JT
- Subjects
- Carbon Sequestration, Droughts, Fires, Policy Making, Climate Change, Forests
- Abstract
Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
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3. Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America.
- Author
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Potter S, Solvik K, Erb A, Goetz SJ, Johnstone JF, Mack MC, Randerson JT, Román MO, Schaaf CL, Turetsky MR, Veraverbeke S, Walker XJ, Wang Z, Massey R, and Rogers BM
- Subjects
- North America, Taiga, Trees, Climate Change, Fires
- Abstract
Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS-derived 'blue sky' albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire-driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of -1.77 ± 1.35 W/m
2 from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971-2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south-north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large-scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long-term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%-28% due to climate change., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)- Published
- 2020
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4. Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska.
- Author
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Pastick NJ, Jorgenson MT, Goetz SJ, Jones BM, Wylie BK, Minsley BJ, Genet H, Knight JF, Swanson DK, and Jorgenson JC
- Subjects
- Alaska, Arctic Regions, Permafrost, Plant Development, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Temperature, Climate Change, Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring methods, Remote Sensing Technology
- Abstract
Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio-environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high-latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time-series analysis of moderate-and high-resolution imagery was used to characterize land- and water-surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land-surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak-growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km
2 ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface-water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high-latitude regions., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)- Published
- 2019
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5. Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data.
- Author
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Rogers BM, Solvik K, Hogg EH, Ju J, Masek JG, Michaelian M, Berner LT, and Goetz SJ
- Subjects
- Arctic Regions, North America, Time Factors, Trees growth & development, Climate Change, Environmental Monitoring methods, Forests, Spacecraft, Trees physiology
- Abstract
Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
- Published
- 2018
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6. Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change.
- Author
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Rogers BM, Jantz P, and Goetz SJ
- Subjects
- Ecosystem, Plants, Climate Change, Forests, Trees
- Abstract
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high-elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
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7. Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site.
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Hobbie JE, Shaver GR, Rastetter EB, Cherry JE, Goetz SJ, Guay KC, Gould WA, and Kling GW
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- Alaska, Arctic Regions, Biodiversity, Biomass, Ecological Parameter Monitoring, Greenland, Plant Physiological Phenomena, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Temperature, Climate Change, Ecosystem
- Abstract
Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3 °C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.
- Published
- 2017
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8. Vegetation controls on northern high latitude snow-albedo feedback: observations and CMIP5 model simulations.
- Author
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Loranty MM, Berner LT, Goetz SJ, Jin Y, and Randerson JT
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- Models, Theoretical, Remote Sensing Technology, Climate Change, Ecosystem, Plant Physiological Phenomena, Snow
- Abstract
The snow-masking effect of vegetation exerts strong control on albedo in northern high latitude ecosystems. Large-scale changes in the distribution and stature of vegetation in this region will thus have important feedbacks to climate. The snow-albedo feedback is controlled largely by the contrast between snow-covered and snow-free albedo (Δα), which influences predictions of future warming in coupled climate models, despite being poorly constrained at seasonal and century time scales. Here, we compare satellite observations and coupled climate model representations of albedo and tree cover for the boreal and Arctic region. Our analyses reveal consistent declines in albedo with increasing tree cover, occurring south of latitudinal tree line, that are poorly represented in coupled climate models. Observed relationships between albedo and tree cover differ substantially between snow-covered and snow-free periods, and among plant functional type. Tree cover in models varies widely but surprisingly does not correlate well with model albedo. Furthermore, our results demonstrate a relationship between tree cover and snow-albedo feedback that may be used to accurately constrain high latitude albedo feedbacks in coupled climate models under current and future vegetation distributions., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
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9. Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia.
- Author
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Berner LT, Beck PS, Bunn AG, and Goetz SJ
- Subjects
- Siberia, Temperature, Climate Change, Larix growth & development, Trees growth & development
- Abstract
Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth-climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km(2) ) in northeastern Siberia using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring-width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts ) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy ). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs ) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub-dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P < 0.05) with Ts across 56% of the watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMIgy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring-width measurements from nine sites revealed that year-to-year (i.e., high-frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P < 0.05) with June temperature (r = 0.40) and prior summer CMI (r = 0.40) from 1938 to 2007. An unexplained multi-decadal (i.e., low-frequency) decline in annual basal area increment (BAI) occurred following the mid-20th century, but over the NDVI record there was no trend in mean BAI (P > 0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVIs (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982-2007). Both satellite and tree-ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
- Published
- 2013
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10. Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift.
- Author
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Beck PS, Juday GP, Alix C, Barber VA, Winslow SE, Sousa EE, Heiser P, Herriges JD, and Goetz SJ
- Subjects
- Alaska, Droughts, History, 20th Century, Climate Change, Ecosystem, Picea growth & development, Trees growth & development
- Abstract
Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline., (© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.)
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
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11. The impacts and implications of an intensifying fire regime on Alaskan boreal forest composition and albedo
- Author
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Beck, PSA, Goetz, SJ, Mack, MC, Alexander, HD, Jin, Y, Randerson, JT, and Loranty, MM
- Subjects
carbon storage ,climate change ,difference Normalized Burn Ratio ,feedback ,Geoscience Laser Altimeter ,IceSat ,Landsat ,LIDAR ,postfire succession ,Ecology ,Biological Sciences ,Environmental Sciences - Abstract
Climate warming and drying are modifying the fire dynamics of many boreal forests, moving them towards a regime with a higher frequency of extreme fire years characterized by large burns of high severity. Plot-scale studies indicate that increased burn severity favors the recruitment of deciduous trees in the initial years following fire. Consequently, a set of biophysical effects of burn severity on postfire boreal successional trajectories at decadal timescales have been hypothesized. Prominent among these are a greater cover of deciduous tree species in intermediately aged stands after more severe burning, with associated implications for carbon and energy balances. Here we investigate whether the current vegetation composition of interior Alaska supports this hypothesis. A chronosequence of six decades of vegetation regrowth following fire was created using a database of burn scars, an existing forest biomass map, and maps of albedo and the deciduous fraction of vegetation that we derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery. The deciduous fraction map depicted the proportion of aboveground biomass in deciduous vegetation, derived using a RandomForest algorithm trained with field data sets (n=69, 71% variance explained). Analysis of the difference Normalized Burn Ratio, a remotely sensed index commonly used as an indicator of burn severity, indicated that burn size and ignition date can provide a proxy of burn severity for historical fires. LIDAR remote sensing and a bioclimatic model of evergreen forest distribution were used to further refine the stratification of the current landscape by burn severity. Our results show that since the 1950s, more severely burned areas in interior Alaska have produced a vegetation cohort that is characterized by greater deciduous biomass. We discuss the importance of this shift in vegetation composition due to climate-induced changes in fire severity for carbon sequestration in forest biomass and surface reflectance (albedo), among other feedbacks to climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
- Published
- 2011
12. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome
- Author
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Berner, L, Massey, R, Jantz, P, Forbes, BC, Macias Fauria, M, Myers-Smith, I, Kumpula, T, Gauthier, G, Andreu-Hayles, L, Gaglioti, BV, Burns, P, Zetterberg, P, D'Arrigo, R, and Goetz, SJ
- Subjects
Arctic Regions ,Science ,Climate Change ,Temperature ,Plant Development ,Plants ,Article ,Soil ,lcsh:Q ,Seasons ,Plant ecology ,Macroecology ,lcsh:Science ,Tundra ,Climate-change impacts ,Ecosystem ,Environmental Monitoring ,Ecological modelling - Abstract
Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades., Satellites provide clear evidence of greening trends in the Arctic, but high-resolution pan-Arctic quantification of these trends is lacking. Here the authors analyse high-resolution Landsat data to show widespread greening in the Arctic, and find that greening trends are linked to summer warming overall but not always locally.
- Published
- 2020
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