12 results on '"Erauskin, A."'
Search Results
2. Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models
- Author
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Colleen M. Petrik, Travis C. Tai, Jason D. Everett, Nicolas Barrier, Ryan F. Heneghan, Tyler D. Eddy, Eric D. Galbraith, Olivier Maury, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Jeroen Steenbeek, Cheryl S. Harrison, Derek P. Tittensor, Marta Coll, Hubert Du Pontavice, William W. L. Cheung, Julia L. Blanchard, Phoebe A. Woodworth-Jefcoats, Catherine M. Bulman, Anthony J. Richardson, Jan Volkholz, Maite Erauskin-Extramiana, Didier Gascuel, Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador, Jérôme Guiet, Australian Research Council, European Commission, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Jarislowsky Foundation, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Fisheries and Oceans Canada, MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia (UBC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), ANR-17-CE32-0008,CIGOEF,Impacts des changements climatiques sur les écosystèmes et les pêcheries océaniques globaux.(2017), and Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST
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0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Climate change ,Aquatic Science ,Oceanography ,01 natural sciences ,Modelling ,Ecosystem services ,Marine ecology ,Structural uncertainty ,Marine ecosystem ,14. Life underwater ,Organism ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Trophic level ,Biomass (ecology) ,business.industry ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Scale (chemistry) ,Environmental resource management ,Geology ,Redistribution (cultural anthropology) ,15. Life on land ,FishMIP ,Fish MIP ,MIP ,Climatic change ,Climate Action ,Fish ,13. Climate action ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,Environmental science ,business ,Fishery oceanography - Abstract
16 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102659.-- Code and data availability: The experimental protocol in this paper has no code associated with it. Forcing data from CMIP5 used for the protocol, and the FishMIP model outputs presented in this paper are available on the ISIMIP servers (https://www.isimip.org/), Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between −35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, an LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models’ drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts, JDE was funded by Australian Research Council Discovery Projects DP150102656 and DP190102293. MC, JS, NB and OM received financial support by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (Triatlas project). CH received funding from the Open Philanthropy Project. NB and OM also acknowledge the support of the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01). DPT acknowledges funding from the ISI-MIP project to support a workshop on this topic, and the Jarislowsky Foundation. EDG received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 682602, BIGSEA). RFH was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the Acciones de Programación Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). MC acknowledges the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). TDE acknowledges funding from the ISIMIP project to support a workshop on this topic and the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Atlantic Fisheries Fund. All authors declare no conflict of interest with respect to this study. JAFS received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 FutureMARES project (#869300).
- Published
- 2021
3. Historical trends and future distribution of anchovy spawning in the Bay of Biscay
- Author
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Luis Ferrer, Paula Alvarez, Xabier Irigoien, Maite Erauskin-Extramiana, Leire Ibaibarriaga, Andrés Uriarte, Guillem Chust, Anna Cabré, Unai Cotano, Haritz Arrizabalaga, and Maria José Santos
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,biology ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Species distribution ,Climate change ,Oceanography ,biology.organism_classification ,Fish stock ,01 natural sciences ,Sea surface temperature ,Gonadosomatic Index ,Anchovy ,Climate change scenario ,Environmental science ,Bay ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Future scenarios of fish stocks and the impacts of climate variability and change on fisheries are critical to anticipate and minimize potential economic losses in this sector. In this study, we assessed the impact of recent sea warming and future climate change on anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, where sea surface temperature has increased in the last three decades. We analyzed the historical evolution of the anchovy spawning and built species distribution models that are projected under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. The historical analysis of anchovy spawning showed that spawning peak advanced at a rate of 5.5 days/decade from 1987 to 2015, and the gonadosomatic index (as proxy of spawning activity) generally increased, which might be associated to changes in phytoplankton abundance. In addition, the spawning area expanded and contracted depending on the total egg production. In the future, the overall anchovy egg abundance in the Bay of Biscay is expected to increase between 1.05 and 2.66-fold under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario by the mid and end-of-the-21st-century, respectively. Projected environmental changes are expected to induce an expansion of the spawning area (7.8% and 16.4% for mid- and end-of-the-century) and higher egg densities.
- Published
- 2019
4. Changes of potential catches for North-East Atlantic small pelagic fisheries under climate change scenarios
- Author
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Thomas L. Frölicher, Jose A. Fernandes, Maite Erauskin-Extramiana, Louise A. Rutterford, and William W. L. Cheung
- Subjects
Global and Planetary Change ,Atlantic herring ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,biology ,Sprattus sprattus ,Climate change ,Sprat ,010501 environmental sciences ,Blue whiting ,biology.organism_classification ,01 natural sciences ,Fishery ,Herring ,Atlantic mackerel ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,14. Life underwater ,Fisheries management ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Small- and intermediate-size pelagic fisheries are highly impacted by environmental variability and climate change. Their wide geographical distribution and high mobility makes them more likely to shift their distribution under climate change. Here, we explore the potential impact of different climate change scenarios on the four main commercial pelagic species in the North-East Atlantic (NEA): Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou). We used a process-based fisheries model (SS-DBEM), where all the target species were exploited at their maximum sustainable yield (MSY), to project future potential catches under a high- and low-future-greenhouse-gas scenario (RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively). Two ocean biogeochemical models (GDFL and MEDUSA) were used to force the environmental conditions. Mackerel and sprat are projected to have increases in a potential catch under both scenarios. Herring and blue whiting are projected to increase under the RCP2.6, but future projections under RCP8.5 show mixed responses with decreases or no changes forecasted. Overall, the potential catch is projected to increase in the northern area of the NEA but is projected to decrease in the southern area. These projected changes are mainly driven by changes in temperature and primary production. Shifts in the distribution of pelagic resources may destabilize existing international agreements on sharing of straddling resources as exemplified by the dispute in sharing of quota for Atlantic mackerel. Novel climate-ready policy approaches considering full species distribution are needed to complement current stock-based approaches.
- Published
- 2020
5. Are shifts in species distribution triggered by climate change? A swordfish case study
- Author
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Leire Ibaibarriaga, Daniela Rosa, Anna Cabré, Maite Erauskin-Extramiana, Rui Coelho, Haritz Arrizabalaga, Guillem Chust, Eusko Jaurlaritza, European Commission, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal), and Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
- Subjects
education.field_of_study ,Swordfish ,Species distribution ,Population ,Fishing ,Framework ,Climate change ,Species distribution model ,Oceanography ,Spatial distribution ,Sampling bias ,Center of gravity ,Habitat ,Climate change scenario ,Environmental science ,Physical geography ,education ,Future projections - Abstract
Special issue Oceanic biodiversity under climate change: shifts in natural and human systems.-- 11 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.104666.-- This research was conducted as part of the CLIOTOP program. This is a contribution 942 from AZTI Marine Research Division, Species shifts due to climate change are being recorded and reported worldwide. However, the accurate estimation and causal attribution of species shifts using spatial distribution indicators, such as the center of gravity, is challenging. This is particularly problematic for commercially exploited marine species with data from research surveys, commercial fisheries or other data collection methods that are not recorded homogeneously over time and space. Here, we propose a new framework to ascertain whether the changes in the spatial distribution of species are due to changes in habitat conditions, fishing activity or other factors. This approach is developed to help elucidate the main drivers of species shifts and it is based upon the comparison of historical trends in species distribution shifts among raw data and modeled: i) fishing effort, ii) population occurrence and abundance, iii) habitat, and iv) spatio-temporal reconstruction of the species distribution. We apply this new methodology to the case study of swordfish populations worldwide. On a global scale, 2 out of 6 stocks of swordfish shifted latitudinally during 1958–2004. Of those two, only the Mediterranean stock was associated with a linear trend change of its habitat. In two other stocks, the latitudinal center of gravity of populations occurrence varies following their habitats’ interannual variability; however, this shift is not linear. We further developed a worldwide habitat suitability model for swordfish and projected its distribution and abundance into the future under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the highest greenhouse gas concentration scenario, by the end of the century. Future projections estimate an overall swordfish decrease of 22% in CPUE (catch per unit of effort), with substantial decreases in most tropical areas, and a slight increase in its distribution range limits, both in the north and southern hemispheres, This research was funded by the Basque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing, and Food Policy). M. Erauskin-Extramiana has benefited from a Basque Government scholarship through Economic Development and Infrastructures Department. [...] A. Cabre is grateful for the ‘‘Beatriu de Pinos’’ fellowship and the program Marie Curie Actions COFUND of the 7th Framework Program for Research and Technological Development of the European Union. R. Coelho is supported by an Investigador-FCT contract (Ref: IF/00253/2014) from FCT, the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. D. Rosa is supported by a Ph.D. grant from FCT (Ref: SFRH/BD/136074/2018), With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)
- Published
- 2020
6. Lower fishing effort would benefit fish stocks and fisheries profitability in the Gulf of Lion in the Mediterranean Sea.
- Author
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Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite, Chevallier, Adrien, Ernande, Bruno, Shin, Yunne-Jai, and Merino, Gorka
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FISH populations ,FISHERIES ,OVERFISHING ,SEA lions ,FISHERY management ,ANTHROPOGENIC effects on nature ,FISHERY products - Abstract
The increasing pressure on marine resources due to the high demand for fish and fishery products from an increasing population can lead to the overexploitation of fish stocks worldwide. In addition, climate change has already impacted fish populations pushing them towards states never seen before with a risk of irreversible changes. Evaluating the socioeconomic consequences of climate and anthropogenic impacts is challenging due to the large variety of interactions between social, ecological, and economic systems that make future effects difficult to predict. In this study, we develop climate-socioeconomic scenarios for the Gulf of Lion's most important commercial fisheries using the MEFISTO bioeconomic model. Here, the biomass, catches and profit changes for the main commercial species (anchovy, sardine, hake and red mullet) and three fleets (demersal trawlers, gillnets, purse seiners) are modeled. We project the potential future storylines of fisheries under four different climate-driven and socio-political scenarios considering changes along three components: (i) climate change affecting fish stocks' productivity through physiological processes, (ii) economic changes impacting fish price and fishing costs and (iii) technological management (fishing effort). Under alternative assumptions of productivity, market and management changes, our results indicate that fishing mortality reductions would mitigate the impacts of climate change and economic volatility over the GoL fisheries. An improvement in the overfished fisheries' management seems to be the main driver of change by 2050, over the direct impact of climate change. The market volatility (fluctuations in fish and fuel prices) will also be key for the future viability of Mediterranean fisheries. • Lower fishing pressure would mitigate climate change impact on GoL fleets. • Fisheries management will be the main driver of fish population changes by 2050. • Lower fishing pressure would mitigate economic volatility in GoL fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean
- Author
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Maite Erauskin-Extramiana, Anna Cabré, Igor Arregui, Guillem Chust, Hilario Murua, Haritz Arrizabalaga, Leire Ibaibarriaga, Alistair J. Hobday, Eusko Jaurlaritza, Fundación Biodiversidad, and European Commission
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate Change ,Population Dynamics ,Species distribution ,Bigeye tuna ,Climate change ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Exclusive economic zone ,Effects of global warming ,Abundance (ecology) ,Animals ,Environmental Chemistry ,Atlantic Ocean ,Southern Hemisphere ,Ecosystem ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,Future projections ,Global and Planetary Change ,Ecology ,biology ,Albacore ,Tuna ,Species distribution model ,biology.organism_classification ,Fishery ,Environmental science ,Poleward shift - Abstract
18 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables, supporting information https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14630, Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long-term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end-of-the-century changes based on a high-greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long-term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two-step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end-of-the-century (2080–2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management, This research was funded by the Basque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing, and Food Policy) and Fundación Biodiversidad (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture and Fishing, Food and Environment; CLIREMAR project). M. Erauskin has benefited from a Basque Government scholarship through Economic Development and Infrastructures Department. [...] A. Cabre is grateful for the “Beatriu de Pinos” fellowship and the program Marie Curie Actions COFUND of the 7th Framework Program for Research and Technological Development of the European Union
- Published
- 2019
8. Large‐scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean.
- Author
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Erauskin‐Extramiana, Maite, Arrizabalaga, Haritz, Hobday, Alistair J., Cabré, Anna, Ibaibarriaga, Leire, Arregui, Igor, Murua, Hilario, and Chust, Guillem
- Subjects
- *
TUNA , *CLIMATE change , *ECONOMIC zones (Law of the sea) , *SPECIES distribution , *FISH populations - Abstract
Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long‐term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end‐of‐the‐century changes based on a high‐greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long‐term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two‐step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end‐of‐the‐century (2080–2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Historical trends and future distribution of anchovy spawning in the Bay of Biscay.
- Author
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Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite, Alvarez, Paula, Arrizabalaga, Haritz, Ibaibarriaga, Leire, Uriarte, Andrés, Cotano, Unai, Santos, María, Ferrer, Luis, Cabré, Anna, Irigoien, Xabier, and Chust, Guillem
- Subjects
- *
CLIMATE change , *FISH populations , *ANCHOVY fisheries , *FISHERIES , *PHYTOPLANKTON - Abstract
Abstract Future scenarios of fish stocks and the impacts of climate variability and change on fisheries are critical to anticipate and minimize potential economic losses in this sector. In this study, we assessed the impact of recent sea warming and future climate change on anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, where sea surface temperature has increased in the last three decades. We analyzed the historical evolution of the anchovy spawning and built species distribution models that are projected under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. The historical analysis of anchovy spawning showed that spawning peak advanced at a rate of 5.5 days/decade from 1987 to 2015, and the gonadosomatic index (as proxy of spawning activity) generally increased, which might be associated to changes in phytoplankton abundance. In addition, the spawning area expanded and contracted depending on the total egg production. In the future, the overall anchovy egg abundance in the Bay of Biscay is expected to increase between 1.05 and 2.66-fold under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario by the mid and end-of-the-21st-century, respectively. Projected environmental changes are expected to induce an expansion of the spawning area (7.8% and 16.4% for mid- and end-of-the-century) and higher egg densities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. Implications for the global tuna fishing industry of climate change-driven alterations in productivity and body sizes.
- Author
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Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite, Chust, Guillem, Arrizabalaga, Haritz, Cheung, William W.L., Santiago, Josu, Merino, Gorka, and Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A.
- Subjects
- *
FISHERIES , *TUNA fishing , *TUNA , *BODY size , *FISH industry , *CLIMATE change mitigation , *PELAGIC fishes , *CLIMATE change - Abstract
Tunas and billfishes are the main large pelagic commercial fish species. Tunas comprised around 5.5 million t and USD 40 billion in 2018. Climate change studies and projections estimate that overall, global fisheries productivity will decrease due to climate change. However, there are seldom projections of the climate-driven productivity of the higher trophic levels where tunas and billfishes belong. In this work, we use a mechanistic model to evaluate the effects of climate change and fishing for globally distributed and commercially exploited seven tuna species and swordfish which are divided into 30 stocks for management purposes, under a range of climate change (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) and fishing scenarios (from no fishing to 1.5 times the fishing mortality (F) at the Maximum Sustainable Yield, F MSY) from two Earth System Models (IPSL and MEDUSA). The results suggest that high trophic level species will be more impacted by climate change than by fishing pressure under the assumption that they remain nearby their MSY levels. However, no-fishing scenarios project much higher biomass. The overall productivity of the target species will decrease by 36% and only the Pacific bluefin showing a slight increase in the future. Five species; Atlantic and Southern bluefins, swordfish, bigeye, and albacore are estimated to decrease in biomass and size at different rates. These species represent almost a third of the landings in the Atlantic Ocean and 10% in the Pacific Ocean being the bluefins, the highest-valued tuna species. On average, the body size is expected to decrease up to 15% by 2050. Fish price and demand are partially driven by body size and therefore, revenues can be reduced even in stocks with an increase in productivity. The fishing industry can adapt to the changing climate by increasing the value of fish through sustainability certifications and reducing fuel consumption and time at sea with higher digitalization. Reducing fuel consumption would also be an additional mitigation measure to climate change since it would reduce CO 2 emissions. • Most target species will decrease their biomass by the-end-of-the-century. • Tuna species' global potential productivity will decrease by 36% by 2050. • Tuna and swordfish body size will decrease, on average by 15% by 2050. • Body size decrease may reduce revenues for the fishing industry in the future. • Adaptation and mitigation measures should be adopted by the fishing industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Are shifts in species distribution triggered by climate change? A swordfish case study.
- Author
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Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite, Arrizabalaga, Haritz, Cabré, Anna, Coelho, Rui, Rosa, Daniela, Ibaibarriaga, Leire, and Chust, Guillem
- Subjects
- *
SPECIES distribution , *SWORDFISH , *CLIMATE change , *GEOGRAPHICAL distribution of fishes , *FISHERIES , *CENTER of mass - Abstract
Species shifts due to climate change are being recorded and reported worldwide. However, the accurate estimation and causal attribution of species shifts using spatial distribution indicators, such as the center of gravity, is challenging. This is particularly problematic for commercially exploited marine species with data from research surveys, commercial fisheries or other data collection methods that are not recorded homogeneously over time and space. Here, we propose a new framework to ascertain whether the changes in the spatial distribution of species are due to changes in habitat conditions, fishing activity or other factors. This approach is developed to help elucidate the main drivers of species shifts and it is based upon the comparison of historical trends in species distribution shifts among raw data and modeled: i) fishing effort, ii) population occurrence and abundance, iii) habitat, and iv) spatio-temporal reconstruction of the species distribution. We apply this new methodology to the case study of swordfish populations worldwide. On a global scale, 2 out of 6 stocks of swordfish shifted latitudinally during 1958–2004. Of those two, only the Mediterranean stock was associated with a linear trend change of its habitat. In two other stocks, the latitudinal center of gravity of populations occurrence varies following their habitats' interannual variability; however, this shift is not linear. We further developed a worldwide habitat suitability model for swordfish and projected its distribution and abundance into the future under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the highest greenhouse gas concentration scenario, by the end of the century. Future projections estimate an overall swordfish decrease of 22% in CPUE (catch per unit of effort), with substantial decreases in most tropical areas, and a slight increase in its distribution range limits, both in the north and southern hemispheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models.
- Author
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Heneghan, Ryan F., Galbraith, Eric, Blanchard, Julia L., Harrison, Cheryl, Barrier, Nicolas, Bulman, Catherine, Cheung, William, Coll, Marta, Eddy, Tyler D., Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite, Everett, Jason D., Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A., Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Maury, Olivier, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M., du Pontavice, Hubert, Richardson, Anthony J., and Steenbeek, Jeroen
- Subjects
- *
MARINE ecology , *ECOSYSTEMS , *CLIMATE change , *FOOD chains , *BIOMASS , *ECOSYSTEM services - Abstract
• Experimental study identifying uncertainty sources in FishMIP global model ensemble. • Warming and lower trophic level (LTL) impacts on model predictions isolated. • Coupling of lower and higher trophic levels a key driver of model warming response. • LTL impacts driven primarily by each model's choice of LTL driver. • Overall climate projections mostly a linear combination of warming and LTL impacts. Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between −35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, an LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models' drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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