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Climate change profoundly affects water resource allocation by disrupting the availability, distribution, and quality of water across various regions. Optimal allocation of water resources represents a comprehensive strategy for water resource management by addressing the intricate connections between water allocation systems and their repercussions on the environment, society, and economy. In this study, an Optimal Water Resources Management (OWRM) framework was developed, focusing on the optimal allocation of water resources and crop planting structures across various sectors. The Munneru river basin, located in the lower Krishna River region of India, was selected as the study area to validate the proposed framework. Five distinct water-demanding sectors-irrigation, domestic, livestock, industrial, and irrigation water requirements for major agricultural seasons-were identified in the study area, and their sectoral water demands were calculated at the basin level. The crop water and irrigation water requirements for various crops were estimated using the CROPWAT tool, while the framework also optimized crop planting structures to maximize returns and resource efficiency. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) was applied, with two objectives focused on equity and economic value. Superior solutions were then identified using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The OWRM framework was applied after identifying critical cases of water availability in future periods under climate change scenarios. Through this integrated approach, an average annual increase of 52.6% in agricultural sector returns was achieved for the simulation period (2016-17 to 2022-23). For a condition of providing at least 90% water supply to each sector, the optimal crop patterns led to revenue increases of 136.4%, 59.2%, and 74.7% compared to actual revenues for the water years 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. The developed OWRM methodology can be applied to other basins across the world that are impacted by climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly "bend the curve" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets., Competing Interests: Declarations. Conflict of interest: The authors declare to comply with the ethical standards of Ambio and declare to have no conflict of interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The significance of forests in absorbing and storing carbon plays a crucial role in international greenhouse gas policies outlined by the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCC). This study was conducted in a typical tropical moist forest of Ethiopia to assess its carbon stock, a critical issue in climate policy. The study domain was divided into six strata using elevation criteria. Ninety sample plots were used to gather relevant data from all carbon pools (above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, litter, herbs, lying dead woods, and soils) following the standard operating procedure. ANOVA, post hoc analysis and correlation tests were used to analyze the collected data. The finding revealed that carbon stock in Sele-Nono forest varies not only within its carbon pools but also across environmental factors. Moreover, the study indicated that soil, above-ground biomass, and lying dead woods store the majority of the carbon. The forest stored 284.81±107.81 tons of carbon per hectare, which is equivalent to absorbing 157.12 Megatons of CO2 from the atmosphere. This highlights the critical role of the forest in mitigating climate change on a global scale. The finding from this study encourages policymakers to rigorously focus on forest conservation as a strategy for sustainable climate mitigation. Moreover, conserving forests through strengthening UN initiatives like REDD+ is imperative to prevent potential emissions from land use changes, such as deforestation or degradation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Saussurea medusa is a rare alpine plant with significant medicinal value. To better understand the changes in its habitat in the context of climate change, this study used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the current and future habitat of S. medusa under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) across three time periods (current, mid-century, and end-century) based on three climate system models. The results showed that the suitable habitat of S. medusa is mainly located in the southern and eastern parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), exhibiting a fragmented distribution pattern. The future suitable area of S. medusa is projected to decrease significantly by 42.5% to 96.7%, accompanied by a southward shift in its centroid and an upward shift in altitude. The study found that the highest temperature in the warmest month is the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of S. medusa. This species is highly sensitive to climate change and requires urgent protection measures. Priority should focus on strengthening habitat protection in the southeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, where some stable habitats remain outside protected areas. Expanding population monitoring, promoting ex-situ conservation, enhancing public education, and encouraging community involvement are essential. Additionally, as a medicinal plant, alternative strategies are needed to curb overharvesting of wild resources., Competing Interests: Declarations: All authors have read, understood, and have complied as applicable with the statement on “Ethical responsibilities of Authors” as found in the Instructions for Authors. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Rapid urbanization in Lahore has dramatically transformed land use and land cover (LULC), significantly impacting the city's thermal environment and intensifying climate change and sustainable development challenges. This study aims to examine the changes in the urban landscape of Lahore and their impact on the Urban thermal environment between 1990 and 2020. The previous studies conducted on Lahore lack the application of Geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) to quantify land use and land cover, which is successfully covered in this study. This study analyzes how urban sprawl has driven LULC shifts and assesses their direct impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landsat imagery, processed using Google Earth Engine (GEE), was employed for LULC classification and LST calculation, ensuring high accuracy through multi-level change detection and a thorough accuracy assessment. Pearson's correlation was also calculated in this study to assess the impact of decreased green cover on LST. The findings highlight a substantial decrease in green cover, from 1,292.8 km 2 in 1990 to 754 km 2 in 2020, alongside a marked increase in built-up areas, expanding from 262 km 2 to over 550 km 2 . Additionally, barren land showed significant growth, while water bodies diminished. The spatiotemporal analysis of LST indicates a considerable rise in high-temperature zones, specifically the industrial zones, with areas exceeding 40 °C expanding from 2 km 2 to 1,075 km 2 over the study period. A strong positive correlation between increased urbanization and rising LST, particularly in areas within a 10 to 40 km radius of the Central Business District (CBD), is evident. The overall accuracy of LULC classification surpassed 94%, with the kappa coefficient above 92%, ensuring the robustness of the results. Future research should focus on evaluating the long-term socioeconomic impacts of urban sprawl and LST increment while developing heat mitigation strategies. Recommendations include adopting sustainable urban planning practices prioritizing green infrastructure, energy-efficient building designs, and policies promoting environmental preservation. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and underscores the urgency of balancing urban growth with strategies that mitigate thermal stress, combat climate change, and foster sustainable development in Lahore., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval: The authors declare that they followed the ethics in scientific research. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Kelp forests serve as the foundation for shallow marine ecosystems in many temperate areas of the world but are under threat from various stressors, including climate change. To better manage these ecosystems now and into the future, understanding the impacts of climate change and identifying potential refuges will help to prioritize management actions. In this study, we use a long-term dataset of observations of kelp percentage cover for two dominant canopy-forming species off the coast of Victoria, Australia: Ecklonia radiata and Phyllospora comosa. These observations were collected across three scuba sampling programs that extend from 1998 to 2019. We then associated those observations with habitat and environmental variables including depth, seafloor structure, wave climate, currents, temperature, and population connectivity in generalized additive mixed-effects models and used these models to develop predictive maps of kelp cover across the Victorian marine protected areas (MPAs). These models were also used to project kelp coverage into the future by replacing wave climate and temperature with future projections (2090, Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs] 4.5 and 8.5). Once the spatial predictions were compiled, we calculated percent cover change from 1998 to 2019, stability over the same period, and future predicted change in percent cover (2019-2090) to understand the dynamics for each species across the MPAs. We also used the current percentage cover, stability, and future percentage cover to develop a ranking system for classifying the maps into very unlikely refugia, unlikely refugia, neutral, potential refugia, and likely refugia. A management framework was then developed to use those refugia ranking values to inform management actions, and we applied this framework across three case studies: one at the scale of the MPA network and two at the scale of individual MPAs, one where management decisions were the same for both species, and one where the actions were species-specific. This study shows how species distribution models, both contemporary and with future projections, can help to identify potential refugia areas that can be used to prioritize management decisions and future-proof restoration actions., (© 2025 The Ecological Society of America.)

Climate change and human activities have significantly influenced soil loss and the soil conservation service, posed threats to regional ecological sustainability. However, the relationships and underlying driving forces between potential soil loss, actual soil loss, and soil conservation service have not been well understood. Utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, we evaluated the soil conservation service on the Tibetan plateau from 1990 to 2020. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends and examined the driving factors using linear regression, Pearson correlation, and random forest regression. The soil conservation service exhibited a complex pattern of increase followed by a decrease, with a turning point around 2010. Soil conservation service and soil loss demonstrated non-trade-off changes. The potential soil loss dominated the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service on the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic factors significantly influenced the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service, with annual precipitation emerging as the dominant driving factor, contributing approximately 20%. However, the impacts of human activities became more pronounced since 2010, and the contribution of vegetation to changes in soil conservation service was increased. The impact of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on soil conservation service for the grades I, II, and III increased by 13.19%, 3.08%, and 3.41%, respectively. Conversely, in northern Tibet before 2010 and eastern Three-River-Source after 2010, soil conservation service exhibited an increasing trend driven by both climate factors and human activities. Which indicates that the implementation of ecological restoration measures facilitated vegetation improvement and subsequently reduced actual soil loss. This study provides a scientific basis for resource management, land development strategies, and the formulation of ecological restoration measures on the Tibetan Plateau., Competing Interests: Compliance with Ethical Standards. Conflict of Interest: The authors declare no competing interests. Consent to Publish: All authors have approved the manuscript and agree with submission to “Environmental Management”. Ethical Approval: We confirm that this manuscript has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

This review explicitly emphasizes the important yet unnoticed potential of macroalgae, such as seaweeds and kelps, as a powerful nature-based solution for climate change mitigation, with greater focus on the Indian Ocean seaweed diversity and efforts towards their conservation and management. Despite the IPCC's recognition of Blue Carbon ecosystems, seaweed ecosystems remain largely excluded from carbon accounting and policy frameworks. Herein, we specifically focus on the immense capacity of macroalgae globally and in the Indian Ocean coastal communities to sequester carbon, support marine biodiversity, and provide a range of ecosystem services. Through comprehensive analysis of existing literature on the primary productivity, species distribution and carbon sequestration capabilities of seaweeds, we highlight their pivotal role in carbon capture and utilization within a circular economy model. This review explores the ecosystem services provided by both wild and cultivated seaweeds, advocating for innovative applications and responsible management practices to maximize their climate mitigation potential. Our investigation identifies significant knowledge gaps and barriers in the conservation of economically significant, dwindling populations of seaweeds in the Indian Ocean and the integration of seaweed ecosystems into blue carbon policies, including the need for standardized classification, valuation, and long-term conservation strategies. Further, we address the impact of anthropogenic activities on wild seaweed biodiversity and the necessity for reliable carbon removal technologies to support seaweed aquaculture beds. This review urges policy reform, increased research and funding to this critical area. We aim to accentuate the importance of a blue economy in establishing carbon-neutral markets and effective climate change mitigation by improving the classification, finance and governance of seaweed ecosystem services., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Coastal areas face significant challenges due to natural and anthropogenic changes, such as sea level rise, extreme events and coastal erosion. The coastal management requires the consideration of socioeconomic and environmental factors to address these variables. The selection of an appropriate Decision Support Tool (DST) based on decision matrix method plays a crucial role in implementing coastal management strategies to tackle climate change-related issues. This has posed considerable challenges for decision-makers, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This review provides an overview of the practical experience in the application of DSTs for coastal erosion and flood risk, emphasizing the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). DST choice depends on the coastal archetype, including its geographical features and sociocultural context. The purpose is to clarify how the integration of DSTs maximizes flexibility and supports the implementation of future Decision Support System (DSS) tailored to the needs of coastal cities with development pathways (DP). This review assesses different MCDA methods, highlighting their applicability, utility, and integration in coastal management, while evaluating each method's strengths, weaknesses, and specific applications, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. The review highlights the necessity of expert knowledge in accurately defining criteria and weighting factors to ensure that the chosen MCDA method reflects the complexities of the coastal environment. Depending on the scenario, methods like PROMETHEE and ELECTRE are recommended for their flexibility and robustness in handling complex decision-making processes, especially in data-rich and well-structured environments. In contrast, TOPSIS and AHP are suitable for scenarios with limited information or requiring minimal interaction with decision-makers. For more challenging contexts, where computational resources and expertise are constrained, methods like MAUT, VIKOR, and TODAIM emerge as viable alternatives due to their adaptability and reduced reliance on extensive datasets., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:Andres M Enriquez reports a relationship with Fundación WWB para la investigación that includes: funding grants. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2025 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Oyster reef loss represents one of the most dramatic declines of a foundation species worldwide. Oysters provide valuable ecosystem services (ES), including habitat provisioning, water filtration, and shoreline protection. Since the 1990s, a global community of science and practice has organized around oyster restoration with the goal of restoring these valuable services. We highlight ES-based approaches throughout the restoration process, consider applications of emerging technologies, and review knowledge gaps about the life histories and ES provisioning of underrepresented species. Climate change will increasingly affect oyster populations, and we assess how restoration practices can adapt to these changes. Considering ES throughout the restoration process supports adaptive management. For a rapidly growing restoration practice, we highlight the importance of early community engagement, long-term monitoring, and adapting actions to local conditions to achieve desired outcomes.

Climate change is resulting in larger, more frequent, and more severe wildfires which have increasingly negative impacts on people and the environment. Under these circumstances, it is critical to determine whether fire management actions can mitigate biodiversity impacts under future fire regimes. However, it is currently unclear how changing climate and management interact to influence the spatial distribution of risks to biodiversity. We used fire simulations to quantify the influence of 13 fuel management strategies on animal biodiversity in the Otways, southeastern Australia, under four alternative climate scenarios. Our management strategies include combinations of prescribed burning, mulching, and strategic fuel breaks modelled in various spatial configurations and frequencies. We assessed the capacity of treatments to reduce risk of fire to animal biodiversity by quantifying changes to extent burnt, wildfire frequency and wildfire severity. All management strategies reduced the average annual area burnt across the landscape, however, there was considerable variability over time and under different climate models. Similarly, spatial shifts in fire frequency and severity in some cases resulted in the shifting of fires away from some areas of high value to animals. There is no one size fits all management strategy for reducing impacts to biodiversity under variable future climates. However, all the strategies tested here reduced median impacts relative to a do-nothing approach for at least some aspects of the fire regime or for animal biodiversity. We highlight the importance of evaluating fire management effectiveness against a range of metrics to ensure multiple objectives are met under the increasingly unknown climate conditions we can expect going forward., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Erica Marshall reports financial support was provided by Victoria Department of Energy Environment and Climate Action. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Climate change poses an unprecedented threat to forest ecosystems, necessitating innovative adaptation strategies. Traditional assisted migration approaches, while promising, face challenges related to environmental constraints, forestry practices, phytosanitary risks, economic barriers, and legal constraints. This has sparked debate within the scientific community, with some advocating for the broader implementation of assisted migration despite these limitations, while others emphasize the importance of local adaptation, which may not keep pace with the rapid rate of climate change. This opinion paper proposes a novel pollen-based assisted migration strategy as a potential middle ground in this debate. By leveraging existing seed orchard infrastructure for controlled pollen transfer, this approach aims to enhance forest resilience through the introduction of genetic material from climatically suitable sources while acknowledging local adaptation. We assess the genetic implications of the proposed strategy through computer simulation. Additionally, we examine the ecological implications of assisted gene flow, discussing the potential benefits of heterosis and the risks of outbreeding depression in intra-specific hybrid populations. We further explore the advantages of pollen-based migration in mitigating phytosanitary risks, reducing economic barriers, and simplifying legal considerations compared to traditional seed or seedling transfer methods. Regional perspectives on adapting pollen-based assisted migration are provided, with specific examples from Northern and Central Europe. We highlight how this approach could be integrated into existing forestry practices and regulatory frameworks within the European Union. We conclude by advocating for the inclusion of pollen-based assisted migration in future international projects and operational forestry, emphasizing the need for adaptable policies that can support innovative forest management strategies in the face of climate change., (© 2025 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Himalayan forests are facing a range of threats, which are making conservation efforts challenging. Using a mixed-method approach, this study investigated the threats to biodiversity conservation in Buxa Tiger Reserve (BTR), a fragile ecosystem in the Eastern Himalayan foothills. The study found that between 1990 and 2021, BTR experienced rising summer temperatures and decreasing annual precipitation, contributing to forest dryness, water scarcity, and forest fires. Natural disasters such as floods, flash floods, earthquakes, and landslides also caused significant damage to wildlife habitats. Changes in land use and land cover, including encroachment, infrastructure development, fuelwood collection, and grazing practices, were also identified as significant drivers of ecosystem alteration. Besides, hunting and poaching also emerged as threats to wildlife populations in the reserve. By employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study determined that land use change, infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and fuelwood collection pose significant threats to flora conservation outcomes in BTR, while infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and forest fires are the primary threats to wildlife conservation outcomes in the reserve. The study recommends the regulation of land use practices, promotion of sustainable livelihoods for local communities, effective conservation strategies, and public awareness and education programs to promote the value of biodiversity conservation., Competing Interests: Compliance with ethical standards. Conflict of interest: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of Iranian amphibian species and identifies refugia and biodiversity hotspots to inform effective conservation strategies. The study employed ensemble species distribution models to assess the impacts of climate change on 19 Iranian amphibian species. We analyzed future scenarios (2041-2060 & 2081-2100) under a high-emission pathway to identify potential range shifts and refugia (areas with stable or newly suitable climate). Additionally, core habitat overlays were used to map amphibian diversity hotspots and evaluate their coverage within existing protected areas. Climate change is projected to threaten the habitat of most Iranian amphibian species, with potential for some species to expand into new areas. The study differentiates in-situ and potential ex-situ refugia under worst-case climate models (GISS-E2-1-G and MRI-ESM2-0). GISS-E2-1-G suggests expansive refugia encompassing the Hyrcanian forests, Alborz, Zagros, and Kopet Dag mountains, along with the southern coast. MRI-ESM2-0 indicates more restricted refugia in these regions. Importantly, there is an overlap between climatic refugia and existing biodiversity hotspots. However, the overlap between amphibian hotspots and protected areas is currently 7.41%, projected to decrease to 5.30-5.51% by 2081-2100 under both models. This research emphasizes the significance of areas serving as both refugia and biodiversity hotspots for amphibian adaptation and long-term survival. The study proposes a dynamic conservation approach that necessitates continuous assessments and adaptable management strategies to ensure effectiveness in a changing climate., Competing Interests: Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Senna obtusifolia (L.) Irwin & Barneby and Senna tora (L.) Roxb represent important medicinal resources in traditional Chinese medicine for more than two millennia. Sustainable resource utilization and preservation strategies for Senna species necessitate a thorough understanding of the climatic factors governing their distribution patterns. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the key climate variables shaping the current and potential future global distribution of both Senna species. To achieve this, the MaxEnt ecological niche model was employed, integrating species occurrence data with relevant environmental variables. The results indicated that Bio13 and Bio14 were the most critical variables affecting distribution of S. tora, while Bio6 and Bio14 were crucial for S. obtusifolia. The moderate and high suitability habitats of S. obtusifolia and S. tora consist of ca. 189.69 × 10 4 km 2 and 129.07 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively, under current situation. Moreover, the global distribution of both species under various climate scenarios revealed that the suitable habitats of both Senna species will reach the maximum during the 2081-2100 period under the SSP585 scenario. Projections across all four climate scenarios indicate a general northward migration in the core distribution of both Senna species. Intriguingly, the observed high degree of ecological niche overlap between the two species aligns with their close phylogenetic relationship. These findings provide valuable insights into the potential future distribution and ecological niche of Senna species, informing sustainable utilization and preservation strategies for Senna resources., Competing Interests: Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The negative effects of land-use changes on biodiversity significantly contribute to climate change. Primates are among the animals most affected by these changes, because of their high dependence on forest cover where a lack of forest connectivity can limit their dispersal and segregate their populations. In this sense, protected areas (PAs) are crucial for conserving endangered primates, especially endemic species. Using species distribution models, we assessed the impact of climate change and deforestation on the geographic distribution of 35 endangered Brazilian primates. We also evaluated the potential of PAs to retain suitable habitats for primate species under current conditions (baseline) and four future climate scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic, both for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080), as well as the capacity of PAs to preserve species' geographic representation both now and in the future. Our findings indicate that most primate taxa would experience a significant loss of suitable area (> 90%) in both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. For future scenarios, the loss could exceed 98% for 10 taxa, particularly Amazonian species. Regarding PAs potential to retain suitable areas for maintaining the richness of threatened primates, only 8.6% harbor more species than expected by chance (1-6 taxa) in the baseline conditions, with a decrease in future scenarios. Results suggest that taxa already threatened with extinction are inadequately protected by PAs in the baseline conditions and even less so in future scenarios. Given the restricted geographic distribution and current population decline for most taxa, we emphasize the need to increase the number of PAs to ensure population viability and prevent future extinction., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

This study presents an integrated model that addresses the complex interplay between water, land, food, and human health for the optimal design of a BioEnergy Supply Chain (BESC), with a focus on future climate challenges. The model is designed to balance key objectives such as minimizing economic costs, reducing human health impacts, and optimizing water use. By employing a weighted-sum approach, the model identifies the best land allocation for various crops and the most efficient biofuel production pathways. Climate change impacts are analyzed by downscaling projections from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HADGEM) for Qazvin Province, Iran, using two climate scenarios: SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) and SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions). The results indicate that water use for crop cultivation increases significantly under SSP5-8.5, by 14.31 % and 132.97 %, compared to SSP2-4.5 and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, respectively. Economic costs under SSP5-8.5 are found to be 2.5 and 4.1 times higher than those under SSP2-4.5 and BAU, while the avoided human health impacts decrease. These results reveal critical trade-offs between financial investment and human health outcomes under different climate scenarios. The optimal bioenergy pathways include bioethanol from corn and sugar beet, biogas from wheat, biohydrogen from corn, and jet fuel from wheat. The study underscores the necessity of integrating climate change constraints into BESC optimization models, as these significantly affect both economic and health outcomes. The findings provide important insights for policymakers, helping them develop strategies that balance multiple objectives and adapt to the impacts of climate change on bioenergy production and resource allocation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) provide critical services but face threats from human activity and climate change. Ensuring ecosystem health is vital for sustainability and preserving ecosystem services and processes, especially in delicate ecosystems such as the Gannan alpine grasslands. However, there is currently a lack of a comprehensive model that integrates ecosystem structure, function, processes, and socioeconomic factors. This study proposes a comprehensive ecosystem health assessment approach that combines the revised driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework with ecological security patterns (ESPs), overcoming the limitations of previous models that focused primarily on ecosystem structure without sufficiently addressing dynamic ecosystem processes. This method aims to diagnose the health of the Gannan alpine grasslands on the QTP from 2000 to 2020. We found that in the context of global climate change, the ecological health was maintained at a relatively high level (covering 75.41 % of the area) in most areas of Gannan, whereas lower levels (12.09 %), were found in the northern areas of Gannan and southwestern areas of Maqu likely resulting from higher livestock density, increased population density, and weaker landscape connectivity. The results of the driver analysis showed that livestock inventory (with an influence Q-value of 0.70) significantly affected the health of the Gannan alpine grassland ecosystem, suggesting that sustainable livestock management is essential for maintaining ecological corridor connectivity, protecting core zones and promoting regional sustainability., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Thailand aims to achieve high-income status by 2037 through the strategies developed in its 20-year National Strategy Preparation Act. Considerable friction is being generated through climate change and unsustainable natural resources management which are eroding Thailand's natural capital base, resilience and ability to generate wealth and progress toward its target. In this paper, we examine the impacts of ongoing environmental degradation including continued deforestation and climate change-induced impacts on flooding, productivity and sea-level rise. We contrast this future trajectory with the implementation of a policy package aligned with Thailand's National Strategy and Nationally Determined Contributions to counteract environmental degradation and adapt to and mitigate climate change. Where environmental degradation continues unchecked, Gross Domestic Product would decline by US$553 billion. Standing forest stock would be reduced from 8.25 million hectares to 5.43 million hectares and cumulative losses of Provisioning, Cultural and recreational and Regulating ecosystem services would be US$99 billion, US$61 billion and US$17 billion, respectively, by 2050. Policies to arrest environmental degradation would offset some but not all impacts with the loss in Gross Domestic Product 32 % (US$174.9 billion) of what it would be without policy intervention. Wealth, the more appropriate metric of sustainable economic development, would increase by US$54.5 billion. The most effective measure to arrest environmental degradation and build wealth would be to eliminate deforestation. Doing so quickly would reduce ecosystem service losses, maintain carbon in forests and enhance water regulation ecosystem services which are critical for reducing flood hazards, loss of life and infrastructure damage. To advance an effective policy agenda for reaching high-income status, operational plans and cost estimations for mitigating and adapting to climate change and eliminating deforestation are necessary to guide the allocation of public and private investment to meet this formidable challenge., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Most of the world's mountains are distributed across national boundaries. However, due to the sovereignty of national boundaries, conservation plans between neighboring countries are often uncoordinated. Against the backdrop of impending environmental changes, transboundary mountain ecosystems and biodiversity face significant threats. This study employs the MaxEnt model, leveraging data on climate, topography, landscape, and human activities to predict potential distribution areas for mammals and birds, aiming to identify biodiversity hotspots (BHs) and analyze their distribution mechanisms in the Altai Mountains transboundary region (AMTR). Results indicate that BHs are primarily located near the Russian-Mongolian border, significantly influenced by climate variables, elevation, and human activities. The study also highlights changes in key habitat types (KHTs), particularly transitions between grassland and bareland, and the impact of climate-driven land cover change on the distribution of BHs. Furthermore, the research evaluates the coverage of protected areas and emphasizes the importance of identifying key biodiversity areas (KBAs) and establishing transboundary corridors for enhanced species protection and future environmental change adaptation. The findings underscore the necessity of transboundary cooperation and focused strategies for biodiversity conservation to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and human activities., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Yuan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Land use change is crucial to addressing the existential threats of climate change and biodiversity loss while enhancing food security [M. Zurek et al. , Science 376 , 1416-1421 (2022)]. The interconnected and spatially varying nature of the impacts of land use change means that these challenges must be addressed simultaneously [H.-O. Pörtner et al. , Science 380 , eabl4881 (2023)]. However, governments commonly focus on single issues, incentivizing land use change via "Flat-Rate" subsidies offering constant per hectare payments, uptake of which is determined by the economic circumstances of landowners rather than the integrated environmental outcomes that will be delivered [G. Q. Bull et al. , Forest Policy Econ. 9 , 13-31 (2006)]. Here, we compare Flat-Rate subsidies to two alternatives: "Land Use Scenario" allocation of subsidies through consultation across stakeholders and interested parties; and a "Natural Capital" approach which targets subsidies according to expected ecosystem service response. This comparison is achieved by developing a comprehensive decision support system, integrating new and existing natural, physical, and economic science models to quantify environmental, agricultural, and economic outcomes. Applying this system to the United Kingdom's net zero commitment to increase carbon storage via afforestation, we show that the three approaches result in significantly different outcomes in terms of where planting occurs, their environmental consequences, and economic costs and benefits. The Flat-Rate approach actually increases net carbon emissions while Land Use Scenario allocation yields poor economic outcomes. The Natural Capital targeted approach outperforms both alternatives, providing the highest possible social values while satisfying net zero commitments., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:S.F. co-authored (84) with Reviewer #3.

Under accelerating threats from climate-change impacts, marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as climate-adaptation tools to enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems. Yet, debate persists as to whether and how MPAs may promote resilience to climate shocks. Here, we use 38 years of satellite-derived kelp cover to empirically test whether a network of 58 temperate coastal MPAs in Central and Southern California enhances the resistance of kelp forest ecosystems to, and their recovery from, the unprecedented 2014-2016 marine heatwave regime that occurred in the region. We also leverage a 22-year time series of subtidal community surveys to mechanistically understand whether trophic cascades explain emergent patterns in kelp forest resilience within MPAs. We find that fully protected MPAs significantly enhance kelp forests' resistance to and recovery from marine heatwaves in Southern California, but not in Central California. Differences in regional responses to the heatwaves are partly explained by three-level trophic interactions comprising kelp, urchins, and predators of urchins. Urchin densities in Southern California MPAs are lower within fully protected MPAs during and after the heatwave, while the abundances of their main predators-lobster and sheephead-are higher. In Central California, a region without lobster or sheephead, there is no significant difference in urchin or kelp densities within MPAs as the current urchin predator, the sea otter, is protected statewide. Our analyses show that fully protected MPAs can be effective climate-adaptation tools, but their ability to enhance resilience to extreme climate events depends upon region-specific environmental and trophic interactions. As nations progress to protect 30% of the oceans by 2030, scientists and managers should consider whether protection will increase resilience to climate-change impacts given their local ecological contexts, and what additional measures may be needed., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Urban periphery watersheds play a crucial role in providing diverse ecosystem services, especially hydrological services (HES), for society at different temporal and spatial scales; moreover, local populations directly influence ecosystem functionality through their decisions and actions. The interactions between social and ecological factors create social-ecological systems (SESs), whose trajectories continuously change in response to internal factors such as land use cover change (LUCC) and external factors such as climate change (CC). This situation influences the vulnerability of SESs in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capacity. In this study, the social-ecological vulnerability (SEV) of the periphery of Mexico City was investigated based on the Collaborative Protocol for Ecosystem Services Assessment and Social-ecological Vulnerability Mapping (ECOSER) and a quantitative method approach. For this purpose, spatial analysis was performed using the ecological and social spatial data for LUCC tendencies calculated for 1999-2019 and projected for short-term CC scenarios and using LUCC calculated for 2039 in trend-based (TREND) and restrictive (REST) scenarios. The results reveal that increases in the SEV in 2039 will be related to important decreases in the HES; furthermore, the REST scenario suggests decreases in the SEV due to decreases in the HES, assuming that environmental public policy instruments will be preserved in this region. The present work aims to contribute to decision-making for HES preservation at local and regional scales and to help develop adaptation strategies under LUCC and CC scenarios., (© 2024. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.)

A marine heatwave (MHW) is an atypical and relatively short period of warmer Sea Surface Temperature (SST) which may be disruptive to marine life. Changes brought about by MHWs can reshape marine ecosystems in ways that have an economic impact on their users. MHWs are expected to become more frequent, longer, and more intense due to anthropogenic climate change. We leverage high-resolution SST data, and spatially and temporally detailed fish catch data, for an analysis of the impact of MHW events on fish catch in Aotearoa New Zealand's large marine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). We use Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression to assess the spatially heterogenous impact of MHWs on fish catch across different areas within the EEZ. We find that moderate MHWs correlate with increased fish catches; but, as the intensity of MHWs increase, their impact becomes predominantly negative. Intense MHWs are associated with substantial decreases in fish catch, suggesting significant disruptions to fish populations and their habitats. This pattern underscores the vulnerability of marine ecosystems and consequently commercial fisheries to the increasing frequency and severity of MHWs caused by climate change. As MHWs become more frequent and intense, better informed management approaches will be required to ensure the sustainability and viability of fisheries., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Urban Nature-Based Solutions have emerged as sound strategies for urban climate change adaptation, but they lack effective decision-support tools. This paper proposes a decision-support framework that relies on Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO), the consideration of actual space availability, the consideration of the simultaneous objectives of climate change adaptation and water management, the integration of demand for co-benefits, and the participatory exploration of trade-offs for decision-makers. The MOO is applied to the case study of the French city of Bordeaux, to identify the optimal location of Groundwater Recharge Infrastructures (GRI) that include Nature-Based Solutions. It provides decision-makers with spatially explicit solutions for developing GRI, with the objectives of maximizing groundwater recharge, maximizing urban cooling, while minimizing opportunity costs, in the context of urban climate change adaptation. Results indicate an array of solutions between two polar strategies: large scale specialized grey solutions in most effective recharge areas, or diffused Nature-Based Solutions to satisfy citizen demand for multiple benefits. The participatory trade-off analysis proposed in this paper is a novel way to co-design spatial climate change adaptation strategies in urban contexts., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Georges Farina reports financial support was provided by Regional Water Agency Adour-Garonne. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Globally, decision-makers are seeking management levers that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change on ecosystems that have already been transformed from their natural state by the effects of fishing. An important question is whether marine reserves can provide buffering (i.e., population-level resilience) against climate disturbances to fished populations. Here, we examine one aspect of this question, by asking whether marine reserves can reduce the variability in either overall biomass or in fishery yield, in the face of environmental variability. This could happen because greater reproduction of longer-lived, larger fish inside reserves could supplement recruitment to the fished portion of the population. We addressed this question using age-structured population models, assuming a system where some proportion of the coastline is protected in marine reserves (0%-30%), and the remainder is fished (at a range of possible harvest rates). We modeled populations with sedentary adults and dispersal via a larval pool. Since recent extreme climate events (e.g., marine heatwaves) have reduced juvenile survival for some fish species, we assumed that environmental variability affected the survival of the first age class in our model. We viewed population variability as a question of buffering, measured as the proportion of time a simulated population spent below a target reference point, with the idea that marine reserves could prevent the population from reaching low levels in the face of fishing and environmental variability. We found that fisheries with more area in marine reserves always had less variability in biomass. However, adding marine reserves only reduced variability in fisheries yield when the fished part of the population was being harvested at a rate exceeding the maximum sustainable yield. This new result on reducing variability is in line with previous findings that the "spillover" effects of marine reserve benefits to fishery yields only accrue when the fishery outside reserve boundaries is being overharvested., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Although green finance policy is essential for sustainable development, its impact on green development is often underestimated. Using city-level data in China from 2009 to 2022, this study identifies the causal effect of green finance policy on green total factor productivity (GTFP) through an improved synthetic control method. The findings are as follows: First, green finance positively influences GTFP growth, and this effect increases over time. Second, the baseline results remain robust when tested using alternative estimation methods and information criteria. Third, the mechanism analysis shows that green finance policy enhances GTFP through the optimization of energy structure and technological innovation. This study provides new evidence that green finance promotes green development and contributes to addressing global climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Ashanti region in Ghana, abundant in natural resources such as forests and vegetation biomes, significantly supports the livelihoods of a significant portion of the population. The sustainable management of forest resources remains a significant challenge to achieving environmental and economic growth and poverty alleviation. The study aims to identify the drivers of deforestation and assess its impact on the livelihoods of the poor and vulnerable communities in the Ashanti region. The study utilized qualitative and space-based data to examine the patterns of vegetation cover and deforestation from 2000 to 2020. The results revealed moderate to sparse vegetation in Ashanti from 2002, 2005, 2011, 2015, 2017, and 2018, with no vegetation in the northcentral part, attributed to climate change, agricultural practices, government policies, and deforestation-related disasters. The study found a significant correlation (R² = 0.8197) between years and deforestation areas, especially in 2018 at around 16,000 Sqkm, indicating an exponential increase with severe implications for sustainable livelihoods. Much of these changes were reflected in 2020 with a high peak of deforestation towards the southeastern parts of the region. Additionally, the results show that the poor groups are not passive actors but are actively involved in identifying systems and processes through which to build their adaptive capacity and resilience to environmental and climate change-induced changes. The findings provide evidence-based and all-inclusive approaches that would encourage vulnerable and marginalized groups to participate in the co-production and co-creation of policies and strategies. This outcome is geared towards transformative and sustainable communities while ensuring efficient and effective response and recovery capacities of deforested lands., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Intensifying extreme droughts are altering lentic ecosystems and disrupting services provisioning. Unfortunately, drought research often lacks a holistic and intersectoral consideration of drought impacts, which can limit relevance of the insights for adaptive management. This literature review evaluated the current state of lake and reservoir extreme drought research in relation to biodiversity and three ecosystem services. The study findings demonstrated that few articles linked or discussed drought implications with one or more ecosystem services, instead focusing primarily on biodiversity. Drought effects on biodiversity varied among species and taxonomic groups. In the limited literature that included ecosystem service provisioning, droughts had a general negative effect. Drinking water supply can decrease and become more costly. Decreasing water flow and volume can reduce hydropower generation. Degraded water quality can also impact recreation. Future intersectoral collaborations and research on intensifying droughts should support adaptive management efforts in mitigating drought impacts., Competing Interests: Declarations. Conflict of interest: The authors declare there is no conflict of interest., (© 2025. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.)

The emergence of nature-based solutions (NbS) in science, policy, and practice signals a paradigmatic shift in urban climate change adaptation, yet empirical investigations into its impact on adaptation definitions and progress tracking remain scarce. Addressing this gap, we conducted thematic analysis on semi-structured interviews (n = 15) with practitioners responsible for implementing and evaluating urban NbS in different countries. We provide a nuanced understanding of urban adaptation goals within urban NbS according to the insights from these practitioners, extending beyond hazard mitigation and towards cultivating and strengthening relationships between humans and nature. Tracking adaptation progress towards such relational adaptation goals requires acknowledging knowledge pluralism and the diversity of human-nature relations. We propose an alternative definition of adaptation supported by our data that aims to foster a more holistic approach to urban climate adaptation that accounts for the potential benefits of urban NbS across interconnected climate, biodiversity, and social goals., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The interplay of climate change, upstream hydropower development, and local water engineering interventions for agricultural production contributes substantially to the transformation of waterscapes and water scarcity in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. This paper aims to examine how these dynamics are linked to the paradigm shift in water management in An Giang and Ben Tre, the two ecologically distinct provinces that face serious water scarcity in the delta. We used the adaptive management concept to examine how state-led policy directions from food security towards water security enable change in water management that gives priority to water retention. While policy learning is evident, questions remain about how this ad-hoc solution could help address the presently acute water scarcity and water security over the long term. The paper advocates achieving water security should focus not only on diplomatic interventions into upstream climate-development complexities but also local water-livelihood politics., Competing Interests: Declarations. Conflict of interest: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. Ethical approval: The research design was in accordance with institutional ethical procedures, and informed consent was obtained from participants., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Lake management actions are required to protect lake ecosystems that are being threatened by climate change. Freshwater lakes in semiarid regions are of upmost importance to their region. Simulations of the subtropical Lake Kinneret project that rising temperatures will cause change to phytoplankton species composition, including increased cyanobacteria blooms, endangering lake ecosystem services. Using lake ecosystem models, we examined several management actions under climate change, including two alternatives of desalinated water introduction into the lake, hypolimnetic water withdrawal, watershed management changes and low versus high lake water level. To account for prediction uncertainty, we utilized an ensemble of two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical lake models along with 500 realizations of meteorological conditions. Results suggest that supplying desalinated water for local use, thus releasing more natural waters through the Jordan River, increasing nutrient flow, may reduce cyanobacteria blooms, mitigating climate change effects. However, these results are accompanied by considerable uncertainty., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Emission reduction, heat mitigation, and improved access to water and food provision are increasingly critical challenges for urban areas in the context of global climate change adaptation and mitigation. The revival of local agricultural production is often lauded as a potential nature-based solution. However, an expansion of peri-urban agriculture (peri-UA) may entail significant ecosystem trade-offs. This study explores the impacts on the food-water-climate nexus of different scenarios of peri-urban agricultural expansion in a semi-arid, Mediterranean climate, addressing local food provision, freshwater use, local temperature regulation, global climate change mitigation, and the trade-offs thereof. We estimate food provision and irrigation water requirements based on a georeferenced urban metabolism approach along with atmospheric and biosphere models to examine four land-use scenarios in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona. Our study reveals that a 31 % (+17.27 km 2 ) and 115 % (+64.25 km 2 ) increase in the current peri-UA in the AMB, results in an increase in local food production of 24 % (+16,503 tons year -1 ) and 86 % (+58,940 tons year -1 ), and irrigation water requirements by 10.0 % (+3.2 hm 3 ) and 43.5 % (+14.1 hm 3 ), respectively. The expansion of irrigated peri-UA potentially reduces near-surface temperatures by 0.7 °C, albeit temperature reductions in the densest urban areas are minimal. Since the additional peri-UA is achieved by replacing natural non-forested and forest areas, the simulations predict reductions in the net ecosystem productivity of up to 18.5 % and total carbon stocks by 3.3 %. This integrated approach combining urban metabolism and atmospheric modelling to determine the trade-offs appears to be a promising tool for informing land-use decision-making in the context of urban climate adaptation and mitigation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Coral reefs are among the most diverse and valuable ecosystems on the planet, providing numerous benefits to human societies, including fisheries, coastal protection, and biodiversity conservation. In order to effectively manage and conserve coral reefs, it is essential to understand the value of the ecosystem services they provide. The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework offers a comprehensive approach for accounting for ecosystem services, which can be useful for assessing the value of natural environments. While the validity of SEEA for many marine ecosystems is increasingly acknowledged, there remains a scarcity of studies that have investigated SEEA in the context of coral reef ecosystems. To bridge this gap, this study offers extensive examination and investigates the evolution of coral reef ecosystem service research under the SEEA framework in over nearly three decades, providing a rich dataset for understanding trends and gaps. The research findings reveal interdisciplinary methodological integration in coral reef ecosystem research, incorporating remote sensing, environmental science, ecology, environmental economics, ecological economics, computer science, and citizen science. Across different time periods, within the shared focus of coral reef health and sustainability, there has been a transition from concerns about the impacts of human activities to a concentration on climate change, supported by empirical evidence and case studies. These research results contribute to our better understanding of the value of coral reef ecosystems., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Changes driven by both unanticipated human activities and management actions are creating wicked management landscapes in freshwater and marine ecosystems that require new approaches to support decision-making. By linking a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia with observed commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (United States-Canada) over the past century (1928-2022) and climate projections (2030-2099), we show how simple, yet robust models and routine monitoring data can be used to identify tradeoffs associated with nutrient management and guide decision-making in even the largest of aquatic ecosystems now and in the future. Our approach enabled us to assess planned nutrient load reduction targets designed to mitigate nutrient-driven hypoxia and show why they appear overly restrictive based on current fishery needs, indicating tradeoffs between water quality and fisheries management goals. At the same time, our temperature results show that projected climate change impacts on hypoxic extent will require more stringent nutrient regulations in the future. Beyond providing a rare example of bottom hypoxia driving changes in fishery harvests at an ecosystem scale, our study illustrates the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management, which can be informed by simple predictive models that can be readily applied over long time periods, account for tradeoffs across multiple management sectors (e.g., water quality, fisheries), and address ecosystem nonstationarity (e.g., climate change impacts on management targets). Such approaches will be critical for maintaining valued ecosystem services in the many aquatic systems worldwide that are vulnerable to multiple drivers of environmental change., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Climate warming is causing shifts in reproductive phenology, a crucial life history trait determining offspring survival and population productivity. Evaluating these impacts on exploited marine resources is essential for implementing adaptive measures from an ecosystemic approach. This study introduces a statistical model designed to predict fish spawning phenology from sea surface temperature profiles, integrating mortality-corrected hatch-date distributions inferred from fishery-dependent samplings, along with the gonadosomatic index of adult individuals. When applied to different dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) populations across a broad latitudinal range, the model reasonably predicts the spawning phenology across its extensive thermal ranges, elucidating a direct relationship between mean annual temperature and the breadth of the spawning season. Despite the varying thermal profiles, results show a consistent timing of spawning peaks approximately 49 days before the peak in temperature. Importantly, these findings account for the impact of fishery constraints, such as seasonal closures or different sampling schedules, offering a robust tool for adjusting management practices in response to inter-annual temperature variations. These insights are critical for both short-term fishery management, including the strategic planning of seasonal closures, and long-term projections of spawning phenology shifts under changing thermal regimes. By enhancing our ability to predict spawning times, this research contributes significantly to the sustainable management of fish populations and the adaptive response to environmental changes., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Climate change requires major mitigation efforts, mainly emission reduction. Carbon sequestration and avoided deforestation are complementary mitigation strategies that can promote nature conservation and local development but may also have undesirable impacts. We reviewed 246 articles citing impacts, risks, or concerns from carbon projects, and 78 others related to this topic. Most of the impacts cited focus on biodiversity, especially in afforestation projects, and on social effects related to avoided deforestation projects. Concerns were raised about project effectiveness, the permanence of carbon stored, and leakage. Recommendations include accounting for uncertainty, assessing both mitigation and contribution to climate change, defining permanence, creating contingency plans, promoting local projects, proposing alternative livelihoods, ensuring a fair distribution of benefits, combining timber production and carbon sequestration, ensuring sustainable development and minimizing leakage. A holistic approach that combines carbon sequestration, nature conservation, and poverty alleviation must be applied. The potential occurrence of negative impacts does not invalidate carbon projects but makes it advisable to conduct proper environmental impact assessments, considering direct and indirect impacts, minimizing the negative effects while maximizing the positive ones, and weighing the trade-offs between them to guide decision-making. Public participation and transparency are essential. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1812-1838. © 2024 SETAC., (© 2024 SETAC.)

The contours of the collective action necessary to limit climate change remain difficult to discern. In this context, societal corporatist political processes, fueled by crisis narratives, have shown some promise as political devices for mobilizing people. Corporatist processes have, historically, brought political competitors like employers and labor unions together to negotiate compacts that have advanced collective goods during times of crisis. In response to the climate crisis in the Global South, affluent donor groups, state officials, some farmers, and indigenous peoples have begun to assemble corporatist-like coalitions to pursue climate stabilization. A comparative case study of efforts to promote sustainable cattle ranching through the spread of silvopastoral landscapes in Colombia and Ecuador illustrates this political dynamic, its shortcomings, and its accomplishments., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Mesopelagic fishes are a vital component of the biological carbon pump and are, to date, largely unexploited. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in harvesting the mesopelagic zone to produce fish feed for aquaculture. However, great uncertainties exist in how the mesopelagic zone interacts with the climate and food webs, presenting a dilemma for policy. Here, we investigate the consequences of potential policies relating to mesopelagic harvest quotas with a dynamic social-ecological modeling approach, combining system dynamics and global sensitivity analyses informed by participatory modeling. Our analyses reveal that, in simulations of mesopelagic fishing scenarios, uncertainties about mesopelagic fish population dynamics have the most pronounced influence on potential outcomes. The analysis also shows that prioritizing the development of the fishing industry over environmental protection would lead to a significantly higher social cost of climate change to society. Given the large uncertainties and the potential large impacts on oceanic carbon sequestration, a precautionary approach to developing mesopelagic fisheries is warranted., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Nature-based solutions (NbSs) are recognised as relevant to spatial planning in addressing societal challenges, although their uptake is limited and fragmented to some case studies, and difficulties emerge from their implementation and operationalisation. The research developed a literature review to investigate how NbS has been considered for its implementation and operationalisation in spatial planning and how NbS has been included across different policy instruments and used to address climate change adaptation (CCA). The results highlighted: Firstly, the review contributed to bridge the gap in NbS implementation and operationalisation by proposing a novel three-dimensional categorisation system to guide the selection of suitable NbS principles to address societal challenges; secondly, this study still revealed gaps in some policy areas, despite the effort to extensively apply NbS across diverse policy instruments to CCA. Overall, the review further emphasises the need for future research focused on monitoring and evaluating NbS's effectiveness to CCA., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

To shift towards low-fossil carbon economies, making more out of residual biomass is increasingly promoted. Yet, it remains unclear if implementing advanced technologies to reuse these streams really achieves net environmental benefits compared to current management practices. By integrating spatially-explicit resource flow analysis, consequential life cycle assessment (LCA), and uncertainty analysis, we propose a single framework to quantify the residual biomass environmental baseline of a territory, and apply it to the case of France. The output is the environmental threshold that a future large-scale territorial bioeconomy strategy should overpass. For France, we estimate the residual biomass baseline to generate 18.4 ± 2.7 MtCO 2 -eq·y -1 (climate change), 255 ± 35 ktN-eq·y -1 (marine eutrophication), and 12,300 ± 800 disease incidences per year (particulate matter formation). The current use of crop residues and livestock effluents, being essentially a return to arable lands, was found to represent more than 90 % of total environmental impacts and uncertainties, uncovering a need for more certain data. At present, utilizing residual streams as organic fertilizers fulfills over half of France's total phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) demands. However, it only meets 6 % of the nitrogen demand, primarily because nitrogen is lost through air and water. This, coupled with the overall territorial diagnosis, led us to revisit the idea of using the current situation (based on 2018 data) as a baseline for future bioeconomy trajectories. We suggest that these should rather be compared to a projected baseline accounting for ongoing basic mitigation efforts, estimated for France at 8.5 MtCO 2 -eq·y -1 ., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The crises of climate change and biodiversity loss have pushed the aim for increasing the resilience of forest ecosystems high on the agenda of foresters and policymakers. At the same time, synergistic opportunities for restoring forests and biodiversity are emerging to safeguard these ecosystems. Naturalness is a key characteristic of forest ecosystems, which should be considered when estimating benchmarks for resilience and biodiversity conservation. The naturalness of forest ecosystems is highly dependent on the intensity of human activity, as different levels of management intensity can change the original traits of forest ecosystems. This paper presents an archetypal typology of forest ecosystems, describing the association between management and naturalness. Both features are represented as gradients covering the full spectrum observed in European forests. The array of forest ecosystem archetypes was verified using case studies across Europe. The typology provides useful information for setting targets for resilience and restoration of forest ecosystems., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Purpose: The European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) Green Paper aims to address the challenge of environmental sustainability in intensive care and proposes actionable strategies for integrating sustainability into intensive care unit (ICU) stakeholder actions., Methods: The ESICM Executive Committee appointed a task force of topic experts and ESICM committee representatives to develop the ESICM Green Paper. The task force convened biweekly from January to June 2024, identifying key domains for environmental sustainability and prioritizing actions. Drafts were iteratively refined and approved by the ESICM Executive Committee., Results: Climate change will impact activities in intensive care in many ways, but also the impact of ICU activities on the environment is considerable; drivers for this include extensive resource use and waste generation in ICUs from energy consumption, use of disposable items, and advanced therapies for critically ill patients. The ESICM Green Paper outlines a structured approach for ICUs to reduce their environmental impact, emphasizing energy efficiency, waste reduction, and sustainable procurement. Furthermore, it endorses the need for awareness and education among healthcare professionals, integration of sustainability into research, and sustainable policies within scientific societies., Conclusions: The ESICM Green Paper reviewed the relevance of climate change to intensive care and provided suggestions for clinical practice, research, education, and ESICM organizational domains. It underscores that reducing intensive care's ecological footprint can coexist with high-quality patient care. Promoting a resilient, responsible healthcare system is a joint responsibility of all ICU stakeholders., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

By recognizing the role of animals as restoration drivers, we have a unique opportunity to combine climate and biodiversity policy frameworks and meet targets synergistically. About 25% of forest restoration projects could benefit from animals contributing to both frameworks. In 50% of projects, active actions are needed to improve outcomes., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

A critical component of ecosystem restoration projects involves using genetic data to select source material that will enhance success under current and future climates. However, the complexity and expense of applying genetic data is a barrier to its use outside of specialised scientific contexts. To help overcome this barrier, we developed Reef Adapt ( www.reefadapt.org ), an innovative, globally applicable and expandable web platform that incorporates genetic, biophysical and environmental prediction data into marine restoration and assisted gene flow planning. The Reef Adapt tool provides maps that identify areas with populations suited to user-specified restoration/recipient sites under current and future climate scenarios. We demonstrate its versatility and practicality with four case studies of ecologically and evolutionarily diverse taxa: the habitat-forming corals Pocillopora damicornis and Acropora kenti, and macroalgae Phyllospora comosa and Ecklonia radiata. Reef Adapt is a management-ready tool to aid restoration and conservation efforts amidst ongoing habitat degradation and climate change., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Natural climate solutions (NCS) and transitioning to clean energy can reduce greenhouse gases and contribute to mitigating climate change. Private landowners with large holdings, such as conservation organizations like The Nature Conservancy, have set ambitious goals to reduce net emissions and increase sequestration on their lands by implementing NCS. We assessed the potential carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2e) reduction from feasible NCS, specifically implementing new restoration and agricultural management activities, and transitions to clean energy on The Nature Conservancy, California chapter's fee-owned and conservation easement properties. We compared the total CO2e reduction from potential new NCS activities to the impact from ongoing NCS activities, the chapter's 2030 goal, and the state's reduction goal for natural and working lands to understand how the organization can contribute to climate mitigation. We found that implementing NCS on 37 fee-owned properties (63,175 MTCO2e year -1) and clean energy on 10 fee-owned properties (488 MTCO2e year -1) combined would not reach the chapter's 2030 goal (72,000 MTCO2e year -1), and there can be tradeoffs between maximizing CO2e reduction and protecting conservation values. However, ongoing changes to forest management on a single conservation easement property, where another non-profit harvests timber and sells carbon credits, currently contributes 147,749 MTCO2e year -1, more than two times the 2030 goal and representing 7.4% of the state's annual goal. Our results suggest that The Nature Conservancy, California chapter would need to implement NCS on some of the conservation easements or consider future land protection deals with carbon rich ecosystems or high impact NCS to reach their CO2e reduction goal., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Wilson et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Forests are expected to be strongly affected by modifications in climate and disturbance regimes, threatening their ability to sustain the provision of essential services. Promoting drought-tolerant species or functionally diverse stands have recently emerged as management options to cope with global change. Our study aimed at evaluating the impact of contrasting stand-level management scenarios on the resilience of temperate forests in eastern North America and central-western Europe using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. We simulated the evolution of eight stands over 100 years under a future extreme climate according to four management scenarios (business as usual - BAU; climate change adaptation - CC; functional diversity approach - FD; no management - NM) while facing multiple disturbances, resulting in a total of 160 simulations. We found that FD demonstrated the greatest resilience regarding transpiration and tree biomass, followed by CC and then BAU, while these three scenarios were equivalent concerning the net primary production. These results were however dependent on forest type: increasing functional diversity was a powerful option to increase the resilience of coniferous plantations whereas no clear differences between BAU and adaptive management scenarios were detected in broadleaved and mixed stands. The FD promoted a higher level of tree species diversity than any other scenario, and all scenarios of management were similar regarding the amount of harvested wood. The NM always showed the lowest resilience, demonstrating that forest management could be an important tool to mitigate adverse effects of global change. Our study highlighted that tree-level process-based models are a relevant tool to identify suitable management options for adapting forests to global change provided that model limitations are considered, and that alternative management options, particularly those based on functional diversity, are promising and should be promoted from now on., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Biological soil covers (BSCs) play a pivotal role in ecosystem functioning by enhancing soil stability, mediating nutrient cycling, and influencing soil hydrology. Recognized as ecosystem engineers, they can physically modify, maintain, or create habitats, facilitating plant community development. Through these intricate interactions, BSCs contribute significantly to ecological processes, highlighting their importance in the overall health and functionality of the ecosystems of the Iberian Peninsula. Here we present the results obtained from the contributions of the citizen scientists uploaded from November 2019 to January 2021 with eBryoSoil, an app that allows citizens to participate in mapping the BSC communities across the Iberian Peninsula. Here, we emphasize the importance of habitats and consequently, their interaction with climatic variables for the persistence of BSCs (lichens and bryophytes). Conservation efforts targeted at preserving diverse habitats are essential to ensure the continued presence of lichen and bryophyte communities. Despite challenges posed by the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this citizen science project demonstrated success in utilizing a specifically tailored app to gather valuable information on BSC communities, providing insights into their vulnerability to climate change. This program serves as an illustrative example of how citizen science can effectively identify and study vulnerable habitats, offering a blueprint for future studies focused on understudied organisms., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Climate change, mainly caused by the indiscriminate usage of fossil fuels, is an urgent global challenge which endangers lives and livelihood of billions of people, the integrity of environmental well-being and the composition and functioning of terrestrial/marine ecosystems alike. To address this pressing concern, climate mitigation and adaptation solutions that target "carbon neutrality by 2050" becomes a crucial global mission. Yet, numerous emerged broad solutions that support biological approaches, such as tree planting, are less stable under enhanced climate change impacts (e.g., forests go on fire). Targeting to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, a wide range of blue carbon sequestering (BCS) approaches have been suggested, since they may contribute considerably to carbon neutrality. Unfortunately, most biological solutions, neglect the employment of marine animal-forests. Here I discuss the potential significance of a novel approach for marine animal forests' BCS, converting the commonly used coral nursery tool into a carbon sequestering floating reef device, a modular device that may accommodate carbon and biodiversity credits., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The author declares no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Earth observation (EO) provides dynamic scientific methods for tracking and defining ecological parameters in mountainous regions. Open-source platforms are frequently utilized in this context to efficiently collect and evaluate spatial data. In this study, we used Collect Earth (CE), an open-source land monitoring platform, to reveal and assess land cover, land cover change, and relevant ecological parameters such as drought risk. Mountain ecosystems were subject to an evaluation for the first time by combining remote sensing with a hybridization of Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for neutrosophic sets in risk assessment problems of several connected criteria. The high and dispersed high alpine environment of Türkiye accommodates land with relatively less human influence, making it suitable to observe climate change impacts. In the framework of the study, we evaluated more than two decades (2000-2022) of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the mountain regions of the country. Using nine identified ecological parameters, we also evaluated drought risk. The parameters included were the LULC classes and their change, elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), water deficit, and evapotranspiration (ET). The risk map we produced revealed a high to very high drought risk for almost throughout the Türkiye's mountainous areas. We concluded that integrating geospatial techniques with hybridization is promising for mapping drought risk, helping policymakers prepare effective drought mitigation measures to reasonably adapt to climate change impacts., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)