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Understanding where species occur using species distribution models has become fundamental to ecology. Although much attention has been paid to invasive species, questions about climate change related range shifts of widespread insect pests remain unanswered. Here, we incorporated bioclimatic factors and host plant availability into CLIMEX models to predict distributions under future climate scenarios of major cereal pests of the Sitobion grain aphid complex (Sitobion avenae, S. miscanthi, and S. akebiae). Additionally, we incorporated the application of irrigation in our models to explore the relevance of a frequently used management practice that may interact with effects of climate change of the pest distributions. RESULTS: Our models predicted that the area potentially at high risk of outbreaks of the Sitobion grain aphid complex would increase from 41.3% to 53.3% of the global land mass. This expansion was underlined by regional shifts in both directions: expansion of risk areas in North America, Europe, most of Asia, and Oceania, and contraction of risk areas in South America, Africa, and Australia. In addition, we found that host plant availability limited the potential distribution of pests, while the application of irrigation expanded it. CONCLUSION: Our study provides insights into potential risk areas of insect pests and how climate, host plant availability, and irrigation affect the occurrence of the Sitobion grain aphid complex. Our results thereby support agricultural policy makers, farmers, and other stakeholders in their development and application of management practices aimed at maximizing crop yields and minimizing economic losses.

Dominance hierarchy, the dominance ranking of members in a community, is determined by the relative population fitness of coexisting species. Climate change can shift dominance hierarchies depending on how species respond to changing climate, but ecological mechanisms underlying such shifts remain largely unknown. Specifically, dominance hierarchy shifts under climate change have rarely been linked to eco-evolutionary responses to thermal extremes, which we consider in this study. We conducted an 8-year field survey to link extreme high-temperature events to the shift in dominance hierarchy of two worldwide cereal aphid species (Rhopalosiphum padi and Sitobion avenae), which may respond rapidly through evolutionary or plastic responses to thermal extremes due to their short generation duration, clonal structure and high thermal sensitivity. To further understand the mechanism involved in this change in species' dominance, we characterised aphid heat tolerance and demography of the two species sourced from relatively mild (Xinxiang) and hot (Wuhan) locations in a common garden design and compared the same measures in up- and down-selected lines of the two aphid species. We found that accumulation of extreme high-temperature events (EHTs) affected per capita growth rate of S. avenae but not R. padi, driving a shift in annual relative dominance of these two common species in wheat fields. Furthermore, evidence from common garden tests and artificial thermal selection revealed that evolutionary and plastic changes in thermal tolerance under EHTs were species-dependent; R. padi evolved higher heat tolerance without reducing fitness while S. avenae did not evolve heat tolerance but showed detrimental transgenerational plastic changes under thermal extremes. Rhopalosiphum padi may take over the dominant position of S. avenae in a warmer future, due to a higher evolutionary potential of heat tolerance and less detrimental plasticity following selection. Field surveys and laboratory experiments together point to a shift in species dominance related to interspecific differences in species' evolutionary rates and transgenerational plasticity of thermal traits during selection events associated with extreme climatic conditions. This study highlights that eco-evolutionary dynamics can contribute to community responses to natural thermal extremes. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

International audience; Global change includes a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which influence insects at almost all levels. The number of studies showing the ecological importance of EHTs has risen in recent years, but the knowledge is rather dispersed in the contemporary literature. In this article, we review the biological and ecological effects of EHTs actually experienced in the field, i.e., when coupled to fluctuating thermal regimes. First, we characterize EHTs in the field. Then, we summarize the impacts of EHTs on insects at various levels and the processes allowing insects to buffer EHTs. Finally, we argue that the mechanisms leading to positive or negative impacts of EHTs on insects can only be resolved from integrative approaches considering natural thermal regimes. Thermal extremes, perhaps more than the gradual increase in mean temperature , drive insect responses to climate change, with crucial impacts on pest management and biodiversity conservation.

Climate change facilitates biological invasions globally. Predicting potential distribution shifts of invasive crop pests under climate change is essential for global food security in the context of ongoing world population increase. However, existing predictions often omit the capacity of crop pests to mitigate the impacts of climate change by using microclimates, as well as through thermoregulation, life history variation and evolutionary responses. Microclimates provide refugia buffering climate extremes. Thermoregulation and life history variation can reduce the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variability. Evolutionary responses allow insects to adapt to long-term climate change. Neglecting these ecological processes may lead to overestimations in the negative impacts of climate change on invasive pests whereas in turn cause underestimations in their range expansions. To improve model predictions, we need to incorporate the fine-scale microclimates experienced by invasive crop pests and the mitigation responses of insects to climate change into species distribution models.

Global climate warming has been exerting impacts on agricultural pests. Pests also take some strategies to adapt to climate change. Understanding such adaptation could benefit more accurate predictions and integrated management of pest. However, adaptation to climate change has not been widely investigated in agricultural pests but has been well documented in model species, Drosophila, and reviewed by Hoffmann before 2003. To provide recent progress and references for agricultural entomologists who interested in thermal biology, here we have reviewed literatures since 2003 about adaptation to temperature changes under climate change. We mainly summarized thermal adaptation of Drosophila (especially to high temperatures) from three aspects, behaviors, plastic responses and micro-evolution and discussed how Drosophila increases their heat tolerance through these three mechanisms. Finally, we summarized the measures of thermotolerance and concluded the main progress in recent decade about the behavioral thermoregulation, mortality risks driven by limited evolutionary and plastic response under climate change, geographic distribution based on basal rather than plastic thermotolerance. We propose future work focus on better understanding adaptation of organisms including agricultural pests to climate change.

Climate warming is characterized by increase in extreme heat events (EHEs). EHEs and mild temperature periods alternate with each other and form complex climate scenarios. Among these scenarios, low-frequency and short-duration extreme heat events during long mild periods (sporadic short EHEs) and low-frequency and short-duration mild periods during long extreme heat events (sporadic short mild periods) commonly occur in nature. The biological effects of these two types of temperature events have not been thoroughly elucidated to date. To clarify the biological effects of these temperature events on organisms, we selected the English grain aphid, a globally important cereal pest, as our model system. We exposed aphids to simulated 24-h diurnal fluctuating temperatures, inserted these events during the wheat growing season and then investigated development, adult longevity, fecundity, survival, and demographic parameters. We found that sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE could improve their life history traits. Increasing the duration of mild periods from 1 day to 2 days did not significantly change their demographic performance. Sporadic short EHEs during a long mild period did not significantly affect vital rates, while increasing the duration of EHEs from 1 day to 2 days worsened the aphids’ performance. We found that short mild episodes in the hot season may benefit small insects to buffer long duration heatwaves. We discussed how sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE supplied aphids a chance to recover from heat stress. Thus, we suggest that sporadic temperature events should be considered in population prediction of small insects under climate change and should be integrated into pest management.

Climate change has the potential to change the distribution of pests globally and their resistance to pesticides, thereby threatening global food security in the 21st century. However, predicting where these changes occur and how they will influence current pest control efforts is a challenge. Using experimentally parameterised and field-tested models, we show that climate change over the past 50 years increased the overwintering range of a global agricultural insect pest, the diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella), by ~2.4 million km2 worldwide. Our analysis of global data sets revealed that pesticide resistance levels are linked to the species’ overwintering range: mean pesticide resistance was 158 times higher in overwintering sites compared to sites with only seasonal occurrence. By facilitating local persistence all year round, climate change can promote and expand pesticide resistance of this destructive species globally. These ecological and evolutionary changes would severely impede effectiveness of current pest control efforts and potentially cause large economic losses. Climate-driven range shifts may affect pesticide resistance. Here, the authors analyse experimentally parameterised and field-tested models to show that a cosmopolitan insect pest, the diamondback moth, is acquiring resistance against local pesticides through expanding overwintering range.

Although climate warming can increase both mean temperature and its variability, it is often the effects of climate warming on short periods of extreme temperatures that are expected to have particularly large physiological and ecological consequences. Understanding the vulnerability of organisms at various latitudes to climate extremes is thus critical for understanding warming effects on regional biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. While previous studies have shown that thermal responses depend on temperature regimes that organisms have previously experienced, this issue has not been considered much when comparing the effects of temperature extremes at different latitudes. To fill this gap, here we manipulated different combinations of amplitude and duration of daily high temperature extremes to simulate conditions at different latitudes. We tested the effects of those regimes on life-history traits and fitness of a globally-distributed aphid species, Rhopalosiphum padi. We compared our results with previous studies to better understand the extent to which these regimes affect conclusions based on comparisons under different mean temperatures. As a consequence of asymmetrical thermal performance curves, we hypothesized that the temperature regimes with higher daily maximum temperatures at higher latitudes would cause strong negative effects. Our results showed that these regimes with thermal extremes caused substantial decreases in life-history traits and fitness relative to the predictions from different mean temperatures. Specifically, the regime with higher daily maximum temperature reflecting a higher mid-latitude location had larger impacts on development, reproduction and population fitness than the regime representing a lower mid-latitude location. These findings have implications for understanding the vulnerability of organisms across latitudes to increasingly frequent extreme heat events under ongoing climate warming.

International audience; This book is the first to integrate biological control into a conceptual framework – ecostacking - uniting all aspects of biological control and ecosystem services. In 2018 the "First International Congress of Biological Control" was organised and held in Beijing, China. The chapters highlight some of the achievements presented at the congress, worldwide. Of particular significance are the numerous contributions by Chinese researchers illustrating the remarkable progress made on developing and adopting multiple biological control strategies over vast agricultural areas, largely replacing chemical pesticides for sustainable agricultural and horticultural production. In many parts of the world including Europe, fragmented research based on short-term funding has been unable to answer to the needs to develop sustainable long-term solutions to crop protection, while colleagues in China have been successful in implementing programs that exemplify the power of the ecostacking approach.Key contributions by European and US specialists combined with the expertise and experiences by the Chinese contributors comprise the building blocks for the integration of biological control approaches into the overall frame of ecostacking. This book will lead the way to a broader, integrated adoption of biological control techniques in sustainable pest, disease and weed management supporting also the functioning of other key ecosystem services.

Climate warming provides a challenge for small insects persisting in cold seasons through diapause because they fail to accumulate and maintain adequate reserves to complete this stage successfully. One way of understanding this challenge is to follow physiological changes in these insects under higher temperatures, including the consumption and allocation of energy reserves during and after diapause. We simulated autumn and spring warming conditions to study carbohydrate consumption dynamics during diapause-post-diapause periods by monitoring shifts in carbohydrate levels in a facultative diapause species, the peach fruit moth Carposina sasakii Matsumura (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae). We found carbohydrates were rapidly consumed in the post-diapause phase, which might lead to a trade-off in the allocation of energy reserves between diapause maintenance and post-diapause development. This suggests that temperature increases in autumn and spring may alter diapause maintenance and post-diapause development through changing carbohydrate levels.

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are predicted to increase under future climate change. Despite recent advancements, we still lack a detailed understanding of how changes in the frequency and amplitude of extreme climate events are linked to the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities. To answer this question, we used a combination of laboratory experiments, field experiments, and analysis of multi-year field observations to reveal the effects of extreme high temperature events on the demographic rates and relative dominance of three co-occurrence aphid species which differ in their transmission efficiency of different agricultural pathogens. We then linked the geographical shift in their relative dominance to frequent extreme high temperatures through a meta-analysis. We found that both frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures altered demographic rates of species. However, these effects were species-specific. Increasing the frequency and amplitude of extreme temperature events altered which species had the highest fitness. Importantly, this change in relative fitness of species was consistent with significant changes in the relative dominance of species in natural communities in a 1 year long field heating experiment and 6 year long field survey of natural populations. Finally, at a global spatial scale, we found the same relationship between relative abundance of species and frequency of extreme temperatures. Together, our results indicate that changes in frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures can alter the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities, and that these changes are driven by asymmetric effects of high temperatures on the demographic rates and fitness of species. They also highlight the importance of understanding how extreme events affect the life-history of species for predicting the impacts of climate change at the individual and community level, and emphasize the importance of using a broad range of approaches when studying climate change.

Dropping off is considered an anti-predator behavior for aphids since previous studies have shown that it reduces the risk of predation. However, little attention is paid to dropping behavior triggered by other external stresses such as daytime high temperatures which are predicted to become more frequent in the context of climate warming. Here we defined a new parameter, drop-off temperature (DOT), to describe the critical temperature at which an aphid drops off its host plant when the ambient temperature increases gradually and slowly. Detailed studies were conducted to reveal effects of short-term acclimation (temperature, exposure time at high-temperature and starvation) on DOT of an aphid species, Sitobion avenae. Our objectives were to test if the aphids dropped off host plant to avoid high temperatures and how short-term acclimation affected the aphids' dropping behavior in response to heat stress. We suggest that dropping is a behavioral thermoregulation to avoid heat stress, since aphids started to move before they dropped off and the dropped aphids were still able to control their muscles prior to knockdown. The adults starved for 12 h had higher DOT values than those that were unstarved or starved for 6 h, and there was a trade-off between behavioral thermoregulation and energy acquisition. Higher temperatures and longer exposure times at high temperatures significantly lowered the aphids' DOT, suggested that the aphids avoid heat stress by dropping when exposed to high temperatures. Climate warming may therefore increase the aphids' dropping probabilities and consequently affect the aphids' individual development and population growth.

An aphid usually stays at one feeding site for a long time to achieve its development and reproduction, while high temperatures can make it decide to escape from heat stress. Climate warming increases daily high-temperature both in degree and time. However, it remains unknown whether such heat-escape behavior will be influenced by those daily temperature changes. In this study, a wheat-leaf temperature gradient was created based on field microhabitat temperatures. We defined a parameter, heat-escape temperature (HET) to describe the critical temperature at which an aphid turns back when it walks along the gradient from mild temperature to high temperatures. HET indicates behavioral responses of the aphids to heat stress. Two aphid species, Sitobion avenae and Rhopalosiphum padi, main economic pests in temperate areas were selected as test insects. Detailed studies were conducted on the temperature gradient to reveal effects of acclimation temperature, time, and condition (temperature×time) on HET of both species. Results showed that HET decreased non-linearly (S. avenae: 41.4-38.6°C, R. padi: 41.3-39.4°C), when acclimation temperature increased from 25 to 36°C. For both species, HET declined linearly (S. avenae: 40.1-38.0°C, R. padi: 41.3-38.5°C) as acclimation time increased from 0.5 to 6h at 35°C, whereas HET descended non-linearly with reduction of acclimation time at 10°C. HET for both species acclimated under constantly warm conditions (future daily temperature) were significantly lower than those acclimated under gradually warm conditions (current daily temperature). These results suggest that aphids' heat-escape behavior is significantly influenced by brief thermal history, implying that aphids make decision to avoid heat stress based on the combination of temperature and exposure time and escape before they were hurt by high temperatures under the conditions of climate warming. Avoiding high temperatures may cost a lot of time and resources of aphids and thus potentially reduced growth, development, and reproduction. Changes in insect behaviors caused by ongoing climate warming and their ecological consequences should be more concerned.

Organisms in natural environments experience diel temperature fluctuations rather than constant temperatures, including sporadic extreme conditions. Studies based mainly on model organisms have tended to focus on responses to average temperatures or short-term heat stress, which overlooks the potential impact of daily fluctuations including stressful daytime periods and milder nighttime periods. Here we focus on daily maximum temperatures, while holding nighttime temperatures constant, to specifically investigate high temperature effects on demographic parameters and fitness in the English grain aphid, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius). We then compared the observed effects of different daily maximum temperatures with predictions from constant temperature-performance expectations. Moderate daily maximum temperatures depressed aphid performance while extreme conditions had dramatic effects even when mean temperatures were below the critical maximum. Predictions based on daily average temperature underestimated negative effects of temperature on performance by ignoring daily maximum temperature, while predictions based on daytime maximum temperatures overestimated detrimental impacts by ignoring recovery under mild nighttime temperatures. Our findings suggest that daily maximum temperature will play an important role in regulating natural population dynamics and should be considered in predictions. These findings have implications for natural population dynamics particularly when considering the expected increase in extreme temperature events under climate change.

The frequency and duration of periods with high temperatures are expected to increase under global warming. Thus, even short-lived organisms are increasingly likely to experience periods of hot temperatures at some point of their life-cycle. Despite recent progress, it remains unclear how various temperature experiences during the life-cycle of organisms affect demographic traits. We simulated hot days (daily mean temperature of 30 °C) increasingly experienced under field conditions and investigated how the timing and duration of such hot days during the life cycle of Plutella xylostella affects adult traits. We show that hot days experienced during some life stages (but not all) altered adult lifespan, fecundity, and oviposition patterns. Importantly, the effects of hot days were contingent on which stage was affected, and these stage-specific effects were not always additive. Thus, adults that experience different temporal patterns of hot periods (i.e., changes in timing and duration) during their life-cycle often had different demographic rates and reproductive patterns. These results indicate that we cannot predict the effects of current and future climate on natural populations by simply focusing on changes in the mean temperature. Instead, we need to incorporate the temporal patterns of heat events relative to the life-cycle of organisms to describe population dynamics and how they will respond to future climate change.

Hot days in summer (involving a few hours at particularly high temperatures) are expected to become more common under climate change. How such events at different life stages affect survival and reproduction remains unclear in most organisms. Here, we investigated how an exposure to 40 °C at different life stages in the global insect pest, Plutella xylostella, affects immediate survival, subsequent survival and reproductive output. First-instar larvae showed the lowest survival under heat stress, whereas 3rd-instar larvae were relatively heat resistant. Heat exposure at the 1st-instar or egg stage did not influence subsequent maturation success, while exposure at the 3rd-instar larval stage did have an effect. We found that heat stress at developmental stages closer to adult stage caused greater detrimental effects on reproduction than heat stress experienced at earlier life stages. The effects of hot events on insect populations can therefore depend critically on the timing of the event relative to an organism’s life-cycle.

Climate warming is expected to increase the exposure of insects to hot events (involving a few hours at extreme high temperatures). These events are unlikely to cause widespread mortality but may modify population dynamics via impacting life history traits such as adult fecundity and egg hatching. These effects and their potential impact on population predictions are still largely unknown. In this study, we simulated a single hot event (maximum of 38°C lasting for 4 h) of a magnitude increasingly found under field conditions and examined its effect in the oriental fruit moth, Grapholitha molesta. This hot event had no impact on the survival of G. molesta adults, copulation periods or male longevity. However, the event increased female lifespan and the length of the oviposition period, leading to a potential increase in lifetime fecundity and suggesting hormesis. In contrast, exposure of males to this event markedly reduced the net reproductive value. Male heat treatment delayed the onset of oviposition in the females they mated with, as well as causing a decrease in the duration of oviposition period and lifetime fecundity. Both male and female stress also reduced egg hatch. Our findings of hormetic effects on female performance but concurrent detrimental effects on egg hatch suggest that hot events have unpredictable consequences on the population dynamics of this pest species with implications for likely effects associated with climate warming.

An asymmetric increase in night-time temperatures (NTs) on hot days is one of the main features of global climate change. But the biological effects of an increased night-time temperature combined with high daytime temperature are unclear. We used six thermal regimens to simulate NTs on hot days and investigated the effects of night warming on life-history traits of the English grain aphid Sitobion avenae. Experimental temperatures fluctuated in continuous diurnal cycles, increasing from 27 °C to a maximum 35 °C and then declining to 27 °C gradually before further dropping to different minima (13, 16, 19, 21, 23 or 25 °C) representing NTs. When compared to expectations based on constant temperatures, night warming raised the optimum temperature for development by 3 °C, in contrast to results from experiments where temperature variability was altered symmetrically or in a parallel manner. Night warming also reduced aphid survival under heat from 75% to 37% and depressed adult performance by up to 50%. Overall, night warming exacerbated the detrimental effects of hot days on the intrinsic rate of population increase, which was predicted to drop by 30% when night-time minimum temperatures exceeded 20 °C. Our novel findings on development challenge the 'Kaufmann effect', suggesting this is inapplicable to night warming likely to be encountered in nature. Although many average temperature models predict increasing pest outbreaks, our results suggest that outbreaks of some species might decrease due to the effects of night warming on population dynamics.