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The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean 1-4 . The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century 5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world 6 . However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models 7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which-together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling-may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability.

Northern Iraq was the political and economic center of the Neo-Assyrian Empire (c. 912 to 609 BCE)-the largest and most powerful empire of its time. After more than two centuries of regional dominance, the Neo-Assyrian state plummeted from its zenith (c. 670 BCE) to complete political collapse (c. 615 to 609 BCE). Earlier explanations for the Assyrian collapse focused on the roles of internal politico-economic conflicts, territorial overextension, and military defeat. Here, we present a high-resolution and precisely dated speleothem record of climate change from the Kuna Ba cave in northern Iraq, which suggests that the empire's rise occurred during a two-centuries-long interval of anomalously wet climate in the context of the past 4000 years, while megadroughts during the early-mid seventh century BCE, as severe as recent droughts in the region but lasting for decades, triggered a decline in Assyria's agrarian productivity and thus contributed to its eventual political and economic collapse., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

Precise characterization of hydroclimate variability in Amazonia on various timescales is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity. Here we present absolute-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records that characterize hydroclimate variation in western and eastern Amazonia over the past 250 and 20 ka, respectively. Although our records demonstrate the coherent millennial-scale precipitation variability across tropical-subtropical South America, the orbital-scale precipitation variability between western and eastern Amazonia exhibits a quasi-dipole pattern. During the last glacial period, our records imply a modest increase in precipitation amount in western Amazonia but a significant drying in eastern Amazonia, suggesting that higher biodiversity in western Amazonia, contrary to 'Refugia Hypothesis', is maintained under relatively stable climatic conditions. In contrast, the glacial-interglacial climatic perturbations might have been instances of loss rather than gain in biodiversity in eastern Amazonia, where forests may have been more susceptible to fragmentation in response to larger swings in hydroclimate.

The Indo-Pacific, a vast biogeographic of Earth, is influenced by both the Indian and East Asian monsoons. Despite its geographical importance, this region has been less studied compared to East Asia and India. Here, we present speleothem records from southern Thailand that cover the last 1500 years, including a hiatus during the Little Ice Age, providing insights into the interactions among climate dynamics, human influences, and ecological responses to climate change. Notably, our records lack the characteristic cold and warm periods observed in other regions, such as the Dark Ages Cold Period and Medieval Warm Period, which may reflect the complexity of the tropical climate system or the region's unique topography. The analysis reveals a link between ENSO multi-decadal variability and hydroclimate conditions in southern Thailand, as evidenced by speleothem δ18O. Furthermore, a comparison between speleothem δ13C and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates significant vegetation changes in the last three decades, corresponding with increased atmospheric CO2 levels and expansion of agricultural land due to human activities during the Current Warm Period. Additionally, our study suggests that an abrupt increase in sea surface temperatures may enhance vegetation growth in the Indo-Pacific by influencing atmospheric circulation and increasing precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructing of past hydroclimates at regional scales during the Common Era (CE) is necessary to place the current warming in the context of natural climate variability. Here we present a composite record of oxygen isotope variations during last 2500 years based on eight stalagmites from four caves in the central Pyrenees (NE Spain) dominated by temperature variations, with the amount of precipitation playing a minor role. The dataset is compared with other Iberian reconstructions that show a high degree of internal coherence with respect to variability at the centennial scale. The Roman Period (RP) (especially 0–200 CE), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) represent the warmest periods, while the coldest decades occurred during the Dark Ages (DA) and most of the LIA intervals (e.g., 520–550 CE and 1800–1850 CE). Importantly, the LIA cooling or the MCA warming were not continuous or uniform and exhibited high decadal variability. The Industrial Era (IE) shows an overall warming trend although with marked cycles and partial stabilization during the last 2 decades (1990–2010). The strong coherence between the speleothem data, European temperature reconstructions and global tree-ring data informs about the regional representativeness of this new record as Pyrenean past climate variations. Solar variability, likely through its impact on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and major volcanic eruptions appear to be the two main drivers of climate in southwestern Europe during the past 2.5 millennia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How often have past climates undergone abrupt transitions? While our understanding of millennial variability during the past 130,000 years is well established, with precise dates available, such information on previous climate cycles is limited. To address this question, we identified 196 abrupt transitions in the δ18O record of the well-dated Chinese composite speleothem for the last 640,000 years. These results correspond to abrupt changes in the strength of the East Asian Monsoon, which align with the Greenland stadials and interstadials observed in the North Atlantic region during the last 130,000 years before present. These precise dates of past abrupt climate changes constitute a reliable and necessary benchmark for Earth System models used to study future climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Qunf Cave oxygen isotope (δ18Oc) record from southern Oman is one of the most significant of few Holocene Indian summer monsoon cave records. However, the interpretation of the Qunf δ18Oc remains in dispute. Here we provide a multi-proxy record from Qunf Cave and climate model simulations to reconstruct the Holocene local and regional hydroclimate changes. The results indicate that besides the Indian summer monsoon, the North African summer monsoon also contributes water vapor to southern Oman during the early to middle Holocene. In principle, Qunf δ18Oc values reflect integrated oxygen-isotope fractionations over a broad moisture transport swath from moisture sources to the cave site, rather than local precipitation amount alone, and thus the Qunf δ18Oc record characterizes primary changes in the Afro-Asian monsoon regime across the Holocene. In contrast, local climate proxies appear to suggest an overall slightly increased or unchanged wetness over the Holocene at the cave site. Southern Oman speleothem oxygen isotope and multi-proxy data reveal diverse changes in the Afro-Indian summer monsoon circulations and local hydroclimate conditions during the Holocene, confirming climate model simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is located in northern China, a region climatically dominated by the East Asian monsoon. Speleothem records from this region are crucial to fully understand the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and reconcile the disparity seen between loess records and speleothem δ18O records for the EASM. Here, we present an absolutely dated stalagmite isotope record spanning most of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 to MIS 3 from Xiaotian Cave, southeast CLP. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record is dominated by precessional variations and punctuated by notable millennial‐scale oscillations; in particular, the δ18O values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a were in the same range, consistent with other speleothem δ18O records from the EASM region within quoted errors, verifying the difference between speleothem δ18O and loess records (e.g. magnetic susceptibility) and the proposition that those two archives may record different aspects of the EASM changes. The similar values in MIS 5e, 5c and 5a observed from the speleothem δ18O records in EASM regions, incompatible with the relatively higher North Hemisphere Summer Insolation (NHSI) during MIS 5e, were probably caused by an equivalent or even increased contribution of 18O‐enriched moisture from the South China Sea and North Pacific, implying that an El Niño‐like state existed during MIS 5e. The Xiaotian δ18O values increased abruptly at ~121.7 thousand years (kyr) before the present (bp, present refers to ad 1950), consistent with the trend seen in previously reported Chinese speleothem δ18O records, indicating an abrupt regime shift in atmospheric circulations or hydroclimate conditions in the Asian monsoon systems. It cannot be definitely ruled out that an increase in sea ice extent in the northern North Atlantic, responding to a decrease of NHSI, reached a threshold to have led to abrupt changes in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) through rapid shifts in the position of circulation of the westerlies and/or in the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Here, we hypothesized that sea surface cooling in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean caused by the decreased summer insolation reached a threshold that eventually resulted in an abrupt shift to more positive precipitation δ18O, either through weakened convection over the tropical ocean, or through abrupt shifts in moisture transport and cycling of tropical moisture sources for the ASM. The Xiaotian speleothem δ18O record also shows centennial‐scale variability with amplitude up to 3‰ within MIS 5e. These changes are similar to variations recorded by the speleothem δ18O record from Tianmen Cave on the south‐central Tibetan Plateau and Shangxiaofeng Cave in Shandong Province, northern China, suggesting a heightened sensitivity of precipitation δ18O to climate changes at the marginal zone of the ASM even during the warm and humid MIS 5e interglacial. Climatic oscillations during MIS 5e appear to be comparable to those typical of the Holocene, implying rather unstable climate conditions during the Last Interglacial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity of processes affecting soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover on spatio‐temporal scales often hinders the extrapolation of results from specific sites to larger scales. This study presents Holocene speleothem U‐Th ages paired with 14C ages of carbonate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) through three caves located on a north‐south transect through China. The deviations of speleothem 14CDOC ages from the U‐Th ages show clearly spatial variability, and they are positively correlated with mean ages of modern SOC and soil turnover time, suggesting that deviations can be used to infer the SOC turnover. We further demonstrate that slow SOC turnover (large deviation) was associated with weak monsoon (low temperature/less precipitation) on temporal scales. Our findings reveal that climate dominates the speleothem 14CDOC ages and SOC turnover. As global warming likely will intensify, the accelerated turnover of SOC, particularly at higher latitude areas, may partially offset the existing soil carbon stock. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the controls of the soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover on spatio‐temporal scales is of great significance to predict the soil carbon stock. The current knowledge of SOC turnover on the longer temporal scale is scarce due to a lack of accurate chronology. Here, we present Holocene speleothem U‐Th ages paired with 14C ages of carbonate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) through three caves located on a north‐south transect through China. We found the deviations of speleothem 14CDOC ages from the baseline U‐Th ages positively and negatively correlated with soil turnover time and climate variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation), respectively. Concretely, long turnover time as indicated by large deviations was associated with weaker monsoon (low temperature and less precipitation), and vice versa. It suggests that climate dominates SOC turnover and the speleothem 14CDOC ages. Our study not only provides a compelling approach to diagnose the past cycling of SOC under climate shifts exceeding present‐day variability and but also projects a promising perspective for studying the interactions between SOC turnover rates and climate changes on broad spatio‐temporal scales. Meanwhile, it creates an opportunity to evaluate the changes in SOC turnover rates for the future. Key Points: Using 14C ages of dissolved organic carbon in speleothem as an alternative approach to date the speleothem is questionableThe deviations of speleothem 14CDOC from the U‐Th ages can be used to infer the turnover of the soil organic carbon (SOC)Climate dominates the speleothem 14CDOC ages and SOC turnover on spatio‐temporal scales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 8.2 ka event has been extensively studied, whereas its structure is ambiguous in North China. Here we present a high‐resolution (∼1 year) δ18O record from annual laminated speleothem from Beijing to characterize the detailed variability across this event in North China. Our record indicates a dry 8.2 ka event spanning 8.254–8.107 ka BP with a two‐stage structure superimposed by three prominent high δ18O excursions. The identical structure of speleothem δ18O records between North and central China during the event suggests a common forcing/response in East China, whereas the progressively increased offset between their average values may reflect changes in moisture source or rainout effect. A close comparison with the Greenland ice core records suggests a strong linear response of the Asian summer monsoon to the North Atlantic climate changes across the early and middle stages of the event, but a different mechanism in the termination processes. Plain Language Summary: As the most pronounced abrupt climate event in the Holocene, the 8.2 ka event has been studied using various geological archives worldwide, but its detailed structure in North China and its link to other climate systems remain poorly understood. Since the Beijing speleothem δ18O, a proxy of the precipitation δ18O, is sensitive to the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variations, it allows us to establish precise timing and structure of the 8.2 ka event and estimate the cause of it. Our new speleothem δ18O record from Beijing reveals a two‐stage structure superimposed by three "V‐shape" excursions during the event and almost exactly covaries with another published speleothem record from central China, suggesting coherent climate changes over the east ASM domain in response to the same forcing. The gradually increased offset between them probably results from the changed atmospheric circulations. Our results suggest a fast climatic signal propagation from the North Atlantic to the ASM domain during the early and middle 8.2 ka event, and another forcing mechanism in the termination processes. Key Points: Annual laminated speleothem δ18O record from North China manifests a two‐stage 8.2 ka event superimposed by three positive excursionsHigh consistency in speleothem records from North and central China on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales indicates a common driverThe climate forcing for the termination process is different from the early and middle stages of the 8.2 ka event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical Pacific influences climate patterns across the globe, yet robust constraints on decadal to centennial‐scale climate variations are difficult to extract from sparse instrumental observations in this region. Oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from long‐lived corals enable the quantitative reconstruction of tropical Pacific climate variability and trends over the twentieth century and beyond, but such corals are exceedingly rare. Here, we use multiple short coral δ18O records to create a coral 'ensemble' reconstruction of twentieth century climate in the central tropical Pacific. Ten U/Th‐dated fossil coral δ18O records from Kiritimati Island (2°N, 157°W) span 1891 CE to 2006 CE, with the younger samples enabling quantitative comparison to a large ensemble of modern coral records and instrumental sea surface temperature. A composite record constructed of modern and fossil Kiritimati coral δ18O records shows a shift toward warmer and fresher conditions from 1970 CE onward, consistent with previously published records in this region. Plain Language Summary: The tropical Pacific plays a major role in shaping global temperature and rainfall patterns, but sparse instrumental observations prior to ∼1950 CE hamper the detection of potential anthropogenic climate signals against the rich background of natural variability in this region. This study demonstrates the utility of reconstructing twentieth century climate trends using an ensemble of multiple, short coral records in data‐sparse regions of the tropics. When applied to the central equatorial Pacific, coral data from Kiritimati Atoll resolve a twentieth century shift toward warmer and wetter conditions in this region, in line with evidence from continuous, century‐long coral records previously published from this region. Key Points: Ensembles of short fossil coral δ18O records yield robust estimates of nineteenth‐twentieth century climate variability and trendsSeawater δ18O contributions to Kiritimati coral δ18O are larger on multi‐decadal timescales than on interannual timescalesCoral δ18O records reveal a trend toward warmer and wetter conditions in the central equatorial Pacific over the twentieth century [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Palaeoclimate variability must be constrained to predict the nature and impacts of future climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean. Here, we present a late Holocene high‐resolution multiproxy data set from Kocain Cave, the first of its kind from SW Turkey. Regional fluctuations in effective‐moisture are recorded by variations in magnesium, strontium, phosphorous and carbon isotopes, with oxygen isotopes reacting to changes in precipitation and effective‐moisture. The new record shows a double‐peak of arid conditions at 1150 and 800 BCE, a wet period 330–460 CE followed by a rapid shift to dry conditions 460–830 CE, and a dry/wet Medieval Climate Anomaly/Little Ice Age pattern. Large discrepancies exist between Turkish records and the Kocain record, which shares more similarities with other Eastern Mediterranean coastal records. Heterogeneity of regional climate and palaeoclimate proxy records are emphasized. Plain Language Summary: Records of past climate are essential in the Eastern Mediterranean to understand regional impacts of modern climate change. In combination with archeology, these allow us to examine climatic impacts on people in the past to help us prepare for the future. Here, we examine a stalagmite (Ko‐1) from Kocain Cave, southwest Turkey, which contains information about past climate change in its chemistry. Measurements of trace‐metals and carbon isotope ratios record the amount of water entering the cave, oxygen isotope ratios record rainfall amount. Measurements of uranium are used to date the climate changes. Earthquakes that damaged nearby cities and caused tsunamis changed the angle of the stalagmite, providing more evidence for dating the sample. The Kocain Cave record shows climatic conditions changed frequently in southwest Turkey. Important are dry conditions 1150 and 800 BCE, wet conditions 330–460 CE followed by a rapid shift to dry conditions 460–830 CE, and a dry/wet Medieval Climate Anomaly/Little Ice Age pattern. These climate changes were different to records from elsewhere in Turkey and matched better with coastal records from Greece and Lebanon/Israel. The complex nature of past climate is emphasized due to varied climatic regions in Turkey and the many impacts on each record. Key Points: Stalagmite Ko‐1 record of effective‐moisture from SW Turkey stresses spatial and temporal heterogeneity of Turkish climateClimate changes share more similarities with other Eastern Mediterranean coastal regions, than central or northern TurkeyHeterogeneity of modern climate and proxy records highlight the complexity of historical comparisons [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is conducive to the sustainable development of human beings in karst regions to research the mechanism of karst rocky desertification (KRD) expansion. Whether the large-scale KRD in southwestern China is caused by climate change or human activities is still controversial. In this study, the evolution of the KRD in southwestern China over the past 2000 years was reconstructed through the high-precision δ13C record of stalagmites from Shijiangjun (SJJ) Cave, Guizhou Province, China. The δ13C of the stalagmites from SJJ Cave exhibited heavy values from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Furthermore, the δ13C records of other stalagmites and tufa from southwestern China also showed the same significant heavy trend. Because the stalagmite δ13C could record the change of ecological environment, it indicated that the consistent change of the stalagmites δ13C may record the process of KRD expansion in the karst regions of southwestern China. During the MWP, the stronger Asian summer monsoon and the northward movement of the rain belt led to a dry period in southwestern China and a wet period in northern China. In contrast, it was wet in southwestern China and dry in northern China during the LIA. In addition, after the Jing-Kang event (JK event, AD1127) occurred at the end of the Northern Song dynasty, the political and economic center of China migrated to southern China for the first time, which changed the population distribution pattern of larger population in the north and smaller population in the south. Therefore, the expansion of KRD in southwestern China was exacerbated in the MWP due to the change of climate in southwestern China, the migration of a large number of people, wars, the large-scale reclamation of arable land, and the cultivation of large areas of crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the precise timing of regional-scale climate changes during glacial terminations and the interglacial periods that follow is key to unraveling the mechanisms behind these global climate shifts. Here, we present a high-precision time series of climate changes in the Austrian Alps that coincide with the later portion of Termination III (TIII), the entire penultimate interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7), Termination IIIa (TIIIa), and the penultimate glacial inception (MIS 7–6 transition). Using state-of-the-art mass spectrometry techniques, we have constructed a uranium-series chronology with relative age uncertainties averaging 1.7 ‰ (2 σ) for our study period (247 to 191 thousand years before present, ka). Results reveal the onset of warming in the Austrian Alps associated with TIII at 242.5 ± 0.2 ka and the duration of MIS 7e warming between 241.8 and 236.7 (±0.6) ka. An abrupt shift towards higher δ18O values at 216.8 ka marks the onset of regional warming associated with TIIIa. Two periods of high δ18O values (greater than - 10 ‰ Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB)) between 215.9–213.3 and 204.3–197.5 (±0.4) ka coincide with interglacial substages MIS 7c and 7a, respectively. Multiple fluorescent inclusions suggest a partial retreat of the local Alpine glacier during peak obliquity forcings at 214.3 ± 0.4 ka. Two newly collected stalagmites from Spannagel Cave (SPA146 and 183) provide high-resolution replications of the latter portion of the MIS 7a-to-6e transition. The resulting multi-stalagmite record reveals important chronological constraints on climate shifts in the Austrian Alps associated with MIS 7 while offering new insight into the timing of millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic realm leading up to TIII and TIIIa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comprehensive comparison of paleoclimate change based on records constrained by precise chronology and high-resolution is essential to explore the correlation and interaction within earth climate systems. Here, we propose a new stalagmite-based multidecadal resolved Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record spanning the past thirty-seven thousand years (ka BP, before ad 1950) from Furong Cave, southwestern China. This record is consistent with the published Chinese stalagmite sequences and shows that the dominant controls of the ASM dynamics include not only insolation and solar activity but also suborbital-scale hydroclimate events in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, such as the Heinrich events, Bølling-Allerød (BA), and Younger Dryas (YD). Benefit from the unprecedented accurate chronology, the timings of these events are precisely dated, with uncertainties of, at most, 40 years (2σ). The onset of the weak ASM during the YD began at 12.92 ka BP and lasted for 430 years. The occurrence of the 200-yr Older Dryas during the BA period was dated from 13.87 to 14.06 ka BP. The durations of the three Heinrich (H) events, H1, H2, and H3, are 14.33–18.29, 23.77–24.48, and 28.98–30.46 ka BP, respectively. Furong record shows surprisingly variable onset transitions of 980, 210, and 40 years for the corresponding weak ASM events. These discrepancies suggest different influences of the H events on ASM dynamics. During the periods of H 1–3, the obvious difference between our Furong record and NGRIP δ18O record indicated the decoupling correlation between the mid-low latitudes and high latitudes. On the other hand, synchronous climate change in high and low latitudes suggests another possibility which different to the dominant role of Northern high latitudes in triggering global climate change. Our high quality records also indicate a plausible different correlation between the high and mid-low latitudes under glacial and inter-glacial background, especially for the ASM regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Giant clams (Tridacna) are the largest marine bivalves, and their carbonate shells can be used for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions. In this contribution, δ18O shell was used to estimate climatic variation in the Xisha Islands of the South China Sea. We first evaluate sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) influence on the modern resampled monthly (r -monthly) resolution of Tridacna gigas δ18O shell. The results obtained reveal that δ18O shell seasonal variation is mainly controlled by SST and appears to be insensitive to local SSS change. Thus, the δ18O of Tridacna shells can be roughly used as a proxy of local SST: a 1 ‰ δ18O shell change is roughly equal to 4.41 ∘ C of SST. The r -monthly δ18O of a 40-year-old Tridacna squamosa (3673±28 BP) from the North Reef of the Xisha Islands was analyzed and compared with the modern specimen. The difference between the average δ18O of the fossil Tridacna shell (δ18O =-1.34 ‰) and the modern Tridacna specimen (δ18O =-1.15 ‰) probably implies a warm climate, roughly 0.84 ∘ C, 3700 years ago. The seasonal variation 3700 years ago was slightly lower than that suggested by modern instrumental data, and the transition between warm and cold seasons was rapid. Higher amplitudes of reconstructed r -monthly and r -annual SST anomalies imply an enhanced climate variability during this warm period. Investigation of the El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation (based on the reconstructed SST series) indicates reduced ENSO frequency but increased ENSO-related variability and extreme El Ninõ winter events 3700 years ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stalagmite is one kind of secondary carbonates formed in limestone caves (speleothem). After cave water droplets containing Ca2+ and H C O 3 − drip onto floor, carbonate in the water might become supersaturated due to CO2 degassing under certain conditions, resulting in the formation of stalagmite in a process year after year. Stalagmite is one of important geological archives for paleoclimate research. The advantages include wide spatial distribution, suitable for U-Th and U-Pb dating, enriched in climate proxies, continuity, long time span, comparability and lower sampling cost etc. These factors have propelled stalagmite paleoclimate research to the forefront of global paleoclimatology with an irreplaceable role. The stalagmite paleoclimate study started in the western countries, mainly in Europe and America in 1960s–1970s, while the relevant research in China was progressively developed in the 1980s–1990s after the Reform and Opening up. Although there was a huge gap between the overall research level in China and western countries, a solid research foundation, as well as a number of talent teams were established during the period. In the 21st century, starting from the publication of stalagmite records from Hulu Cave in Nanjing in 2001, the stalagmite paleoclimate research in China has ushered in a flourishing development and a real leap on the basis of international cooperation, resulting in significant international impacts. The landmark achievements, including establishment of the world's longest (640000 years) East Asian monsoon stalagmite record, as well as the longest Indian monsoon (280000 years), South American monsoon (250000 years), North American westerly climate (330000 years), Central Asian westerly climate (135000 years), and northwestern China westerly climate (500000 years), have laid a milestone in the paleoclimate study in these climate domains. Importantly, these stalagmite records have revealed the relationship of Asian monsoon variations with solar insolation climate change in polar regions, and the South American monsoon changes on orbital-suborbital timescales, which have provided new geological observations for the development of orbital-suborbital climate theory; elaborated coupling and differentiation relationships between the Asian monsoon and the westerly climate; reconstructed the history of Asian monsoon changes in the Holocene in detail, and thus the hydrological and climate variances behind Chinese and Indian civilization-cultural evolutions. Furthermore, a large number of high-resolution stalagmite records over the past 2000 years have been reconstructed, which are important for understanding short-term climate variability and magnitude, events, cycles, and thus the future climate projection. The achievements have also involved the improvements of a number of important techniques, such as U-Th dating method, the establishments of various hydroclimatic proxies, as well as the contributions to the reconstruction of the atmosphere 14C variation history over the past ∼54000 years. On the perspective of the future, the Chinese stalagmite community should continue to develop key techniques, further clarify the hydroclimatic significance of stalagmite proxies, impel the integration of related disciplines, and concentrate on key scientific issues in global climate change and major social demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The timing and structure of Termination II (T-II) is still debatable as the number of high-quality records is insufficient. This study presents precisely dated stalagmite δ 18 O data between 133.4 ± 0.3 to 126.6 ± 0.3 ka BP (covering most of T-II) from north China, near the northern limit of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), an area sensitive to climate change. The onset of the last interglacial is constrained at 129.4 ± 0.3 ka BP, consistent with south Chinese speleothem records, further supporting the idea that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation plays an important role in initiating glacial terminations. An extended interval of heavy δ 18 O is observed immediately prior to this abrupt transition, named as the "Weak Monsoon Interval" (WMI) in south Chinese cave records, which was associated with the Heinrich Stadial 11 (H11) in the North Atlantic. A significant millennial-scale interstadial peaking at 132.7 ± 0.3 ka BP is identified preceding the weakest phase of the WMI. A synchronous counterpart is also found in some south Chinese speleothem and North Atlantic alkenone Mg/Ca SST records. It is inferred that the main H11 freshwater penetration possibly occurred after 131.5 ka BP, leaving some aspects of ocean and atmospheric circulation still in interstadial mode from 134 to 131.5 ka BP. Following the onset of the last interglacial, there was a millennial-scale "pause" in our δ 18 O record, synchronized with a "slowdown" in the rate of decrease in δ 18 O in south Chinese cave records. This is possibly a large regional climate oscillation, as it is also identified in some North Atlantic records, but one which is too weak to be a Younger Dryas (YD)-type event. In summary, compared to south Chinese cave records, significant millennial-scale climate oscillations before and after the synchronous onset of the last interglacial is the main feature of our record. Nevertheless, the sequence of these climate events remains very different from Termination I (T-I), which is possibly ascribed to the stronger insolation, higher atmosphere CO 2 , and the resultant faster and greater meltwater pulse to the North Atlantic during T-II than during T-I. Highlights • Termination II (T-II) in north China recorded by a precisely dated stalagmite. • The last interglacial onset was at around 129 ka BP in both north and south China. • Millennial-scale event of T-II in north China is more significant than south China. • Evolution of T-II is different from Termination-I shown by Chinese cave records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paired measurements of 14C/12C and 230Th ages from two Hulu Cave stalagmites complete a precise record of atmospheric 14C covering the full range of the 14C dating method (~54,000 years). Over the last glacial period, atmospheric 14C/12C ranges from values similar to modern values to values 1.70 times higher (42,000 to 39,000 years ago). The latter correspond to 14C ages 5200 years less than calibrated ages and correlate with the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion followed by Heinrich Stadial 4. Millennial-scale variations are largely attributable to Earth’s magnetic field changes and in part to climate-related changes in the oceanic carbon cycle. A progressive shift to lower 14C/12C values between 25,000 and 11,000 years ago is likely related, in part, to progressively increasing ocean ventilation rates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the EOF of reanalysis data being analyzed, a northern-southern dipole is found in the upper troposphere geopotential height field of over the Asian-Australian monsoon region in the winter of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is defined as Asian-Australian dipole (AAD) in this study. Its intensity index is defined as AADI. Correlation and synthetic analysis illustrate that AADI is closely related to the weather and climate of Asian-Australian region in boreal winter. The index can reflect the simultaneous anomalies of temperature and precipitation on interannual and decadal scales in the boreal winter of Asian-Australian region. The superposition of the decadal and interannual signals is significant for the relationship between the AADI and climate change. The index can be used as an indicator of intensity of the Asian-Australian monsoon. In the years of strong AADI, the East Asia major deep trough is stronger, the Subtropical High is weaker and the Alaska ridge and the westerly jet are stronger than those in normal years. Enhanced meridional circulation between high and low latitudes exists in the years of strong AADI. These relationships reflect the intrinsic link between the anomalies in the upper troposphere geopotential height and climate in the Asian-Australian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "4.2 ka event" is frequently described as a major global climate anomaly between 4.2 and 3.9 ka, which defines the beginning of the current Meghalayan age in the Holocene epoch. The "event" has been disproportionately reported from proxy records from the Northern Hemisphere, but its climatic manifestation remains much less clear in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present highly resolved and chronologically well-constrained speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes records between ∼6 and 3 ka from Rodrigues Island in the southwestern subtropical Indian Ocean, located ∼600 km east of Mauritius. Our records show that the 4.2 ka event did not manifest itself as a period of major climate change at Rodrigues Island in the context of our record's length. Instead, we find evidence for a multi-centennial drought that occurred near-continuously between 3.9 and 3.5 ka and temporally coincided with climate change throughout the Southern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last glacial period Northern Hemisphere climate was characterized by extreme and abrupt climate changes, so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. Most clearly observed as temperature changes in Greenland ice-core records, their climatic imprint was geographically widespread. However, the temporal relation between DO events in Greenland and other regions is uncertain due to the chronological uncertainties of each archive, limiting our ability to test hypotheses of synchronous change. In contrast, the assumption of direct synchrony of climate changes forms the basis of many timescales. Here, we use cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be , 36Cl , 14C) to link Greenland ice-core records to U/Th -dated speleothems, quantify offsets between the two timescales, and improve their absolute dating back to 45 000 years ago. This approach allows us to test the assumption that DO events occurred synchronously between Greenland ice-core and tropical speleothem records with unprecedented precision. We find that the onset of DO events occurs within synchronization uncertainties in all investigated records. Importantly, we demonstrate that local discrepancies remain in the temporal development of rapid climate change for specific events and speleothems. These may either be related to the location of proxy records relative to the shifting atmospheric fronts or to underestimated U/Th dating uncertainties. Our study thus highlights the potential for misleading interpretations of the Earth system when applying the common practice of climate wiggle matching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the first well-dated high resolution stable isotope ( δ 18 O and δ 13 C ) and trace element (Mg and Sr) speleothem records from southwestern Morocco covering the last 1000 yrs. Our records reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords with prevailing dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), wetter conditions during the second part of the Little Ice Age (LIA), and a trend towards dry conditions during the current warm period. These coherent regional climate signals suggest common climate controls. Statistical analyses indicate that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over the last millennium. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple proxies using variation in δ18O, δ13C, mineralogy, and petrography in a newly generated high-resolution record of Stalagmite DP1 from Dante Cave indicate a linkage between changes in hydroclimate in northeastern Namibia and changes in solar activity and changes in global temperatures. The record suggests that during solar minima and globally cooler conditions (ca. 1660–1710 and ca. 1790–1830), wetter periods (reflecting longer summer seasons) in northeastern Namibia were linked to advances of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Inter-Ocean Convergence Zone (IOCZ) southwestward. A slight southward push of the Angola–Benguela Front (ABF) during such intervals could also be expected, bringing more rainfall inland. On the other hand, drier and warmer periods in northeastern Namibia, inferred from the increasing δ18O trend in Stalagmite DP1 after AD 1715, coincide with globally warmer conditions, and thus a northeastward migration of the ITCZ, specifically with more warming of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This finding agrees with reducing precipitation observed in the summer rainfall zone of southern Africa since ca. 1900. Therefore, predictions of warming in high-latitude regions of the NH in the next century should suggest that the presently semi-arid climate of northern Namibia may become even drier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Holocene dynamics of the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and Indian Monsoon (IM) are important for understanding the Holocene climate system. To clarify the relationship between EAM and IM subsystems during the mid-Holocene, a 2085-year (6,270-4,185 a BP) high-resolution record from stalagmite (FL4) in Yunnan, China was reconstructed using ICP-MS-Th series dating and carbon and oxygen isotope analysis (δC and δO). In the study period, successive positive δO trends revealed a generally weakening Asian monsoon, with the monsoon climate tending toward gradual drying, especially during three centennial-scale drought events in 6,270-6,126 a BP, 5,347-5,140 a BP, and 4,810-4,620 a BP. On the other hand, the uninterrupted negative trend in δC signified natural improvements in vegetation overlying the cave, and a serious deficit (~2.5 ‰) in δC during 5,519-5,345 a BP implied a heavy rainfall event, in precise phase with δO, demonstrating an enhanced Indian Monsoon subsystem. The dense sawtooth-shaped pattern of the carbon and oxygen isotope records indicates that a series of decadal-scale abrupt climate changes were superimposed on the centennial-scale monsoon climate changes. FL4 stalagmite records in the mid-Holocene reflect a gradually weakening monsoon climate with superimposed decadal-centennial events, but natural improvements in local vegetation through self-adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is now the leading cause of coral-reef degradation and is altering the adaptive landscape of coral populations. Increasing sea temperatures and declining carbonate saturation states are inhibiting short-term rates of coral calcification, carbonate precipitation and submarine cementation. A critical challenge to coral-reef conservation is understanding the mechanisms by which environmental perturbations scale up to influence long-term rates of reef-framework construction and ecosystem function. Here we reconstruct climatic and oceanographic variability using corals sampled from a 6,750-year core from Pacific Panamá. Simultaneous reconstructions of coral palaeophysiology and reef accretion allowed us to identify the climatic and biotic thresholds associated with a 2,500-year hiatus in vertical accretion beginning ∼4,100 years ago. Stronger upwelling, cooler sea temperatures and greater precipitation-indicators of La Niña-like conditions-were closely associated with abrupt reef shutdown. The physiological condition of the corals deteriorated at the onset of the hiatus, corroborating theoretical predictions that the tipping points of radical ecosystem transitions should be manifested sublethally in the biotic constituents. Future climate change could cause similar threshold behaviours, leading to another shutdown in reef development in the tropical eastern Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We analyzed variations in the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, REE/Ca (REE: rare earth element), Zn/Ca, and Pb/Ca ratios preserved in an annually layered stalagmite, XL21, from central China. The stalagmite record spans the 95year period AD 1914–2008. The Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios have a significant positive correlation with the stalagmite's growth rate, suggesting that they were primarily controlled by growth-rate variations. Variations in REE/Ca ratios are consistent with local temperature changes, suggesting temperature influenced REE concentrations in the stalagmite over decadal to annual timescales. Higher temperature in this humid area can increase vegetation cover, microbial activity, and organic decomposition in the soil, resulting in enhanced pCO2, organic matter concentration and reduced pH, and consequently increased REE mobilization from the overlying soil layer and host rock. Higher temperatures may also increase the natural Zn mobilization from the overlying soil mediated by organic matter and consequently may have led to increased Zn retention in XL21. An increasing trend is seen in the Pb/Ca ratios from XL21 since 1985, which is consistent with increased lead production in this area, and indicates an increase in mine-derived lead pollution in the local environment over the past 30years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

ABSTRACT A speleothem record from south-western China characterizes in detail the millennial-scale changes in Asian Monsoon (AM) intensity from 39.3 to 28.7 ka. The calcite δ18O profile, with an average resolution of ∼8 years, shows several strong monsoon events concurrent with Greenland Interstadials (GIS) 8-4. To gain a systematic perspective of AM millennial-scale variability, the new and previously reported data from the same cave are combined, showing that AM variation exhibits a broad similarity with Greenland ice δ18O records and with Antarctica but in an opposite sense. For the interval that encompasses GIS 5 and GIS 4.1, however, our stalagmite δ18O record depicts a sustained strong monsoon with no distinctive oscillation between these interstadials. Another prominent characteristic in our record is a gradual transition into Chinese Interstadial (CIS) 8, which is well constrained by an annually laminated sequence. We find that an initial rise in monsoon intensity, lasting a few centuries, significantly precedes the abrupt onset of CIS 8 in the AM realm. This suggests that atmospheric moisture and heat transport are probably capable of inducing abrupt climate change when a rapid reorganization of ocean/atmosphere circulations passes a tipping point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Speleothem growth requires humid climates sufficiently warm to stimulate soil CO2 production by plants. We compile 283 U/Th dates on 21 stalagmites from six cave systems in the NW coast of Spain to evaluate if there are patterns in stalagmite growth that are evidence of climatic forcing. In the oldest stalagmites, from marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 7–5, growth persists through the glacial period. Hiatuses and major reductions in growth rate occur during extreme minima in summer insolation. Stalagmites active during the last interglaciation cease growth at the MIS 5–4 boundary (74ka), when regional sea-surface temperature cooled significantly. During MIS 3, only two stalagmites grew; rates were highest between 50 and 60ka during the maximum in summer insolation. One stalagmite grew briefly at 41ka, 36.5 and 28.6ka, all during warm phases of the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. A pronounced Holocene optimum in stalagmite growth occurs from 9 to 6ka. The cessation of most growth by 4.1ka, coincident with broad increases in aridity over the Mediterranean and areas influenced by the North African Monsoon, suggest that regions such as NW Spain, with dominant Atlantic moisture sources, also experienced increased aridity at this time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The regional climate correlation within the Northern Hemisphere in the cold/dry mid-Younger Dryas event (YD) remains elusive. A key to unraveling this issue is sufficient knowledge of the detailed climate variability at the low latitudes. Here we present a high-resolution (3-yr) δ18O record of an annually laminated stalagmite from central China that reveals a detailed Asian monsoon (AM) history from 13.36 to 10.99ka. The YD in this record is expressed as three phases, characterized by gradual onsets but rapid ends. During the mid-YD, the AM variability exhibited an increasing trend superimposed by three centennial oscillations, well-correlated to changes in Greenland temperatures. These warming/wetting fluctuations show a periodicity of ~200yr, generally in agreement with centennial changes in cosmogenic nuclides indicated by the 10Be flux from the Greenland ice. This relationship implies that centennial-scale climate changes during the mid-YD are probably caused by solar output and rapidly transported over broad regions through atmosphere reorganization. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The regional monsoons of the world have long been viewed as seasonal atmospheric circulation reversal-analogous to a thermally-driven land-sea breeze on a continental scale. This conventional view of monsoons is now being integrated at a global scale and accordingly, a new paradigm has emerged which considers regional monsoons to be manifestations of global-scale seasonal changes in response to overturning of atmospheric circulation in the tropics and subtropics, and henceforth, interactive components of a singular Global Monsoon (GM) system. The paleoclimate community, however, tends to view 'paleomonsoon' (PM), largely in terms of regional circulation phenomena. In the past decade, many high-quality speleothem oxygen isotope (δO) records have been established from the Asian Monsoon and the South American Monsoon regions that primarily reflect changes in the integrated intensities of monsoons on orbital-to-decadal timescales. With the emergence of these high-resolution and absolute-dated records from both sides of the Equator, it is now possible to test a concept of the 'Global-Paleo-Monsoon' (GPM) on a wide-range of timescales. Here we present a comprehensive synthesis of globally-distributed speleothem δO records and highlight three aspects of the GPM that are comparable to the modern GM: (1) the GPM intensity swings on different timescales; (2) their global extent; and (3) an anti-phased inter-hemispheric relationship between the Asian and South American monsoon systems on a wide range of timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Textural and stable isotopic records of a composite-type speleothem from Gwaneum Cave in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula show prominent paleoenvironmental changes since MIS (marine oxygen isotope stage) 5a. Based on 230Th/234U dating, the speleothem experienced growth from 90.9±6.5ka to 1.2±0.5ka with several hiatuses. Four growth phases (A, B, C and D) are recognized based on speleothem type and texture. Very irregular and laterally discontinuous growth laminae in Phases B and C indicate that the cave coralloids grew over the stalagmite (Phase A) when the supply of dripping water became limited. Variations within the δ 13C time series of Phase A are interpreted as responses to millennial-scale fluctuations of the East Asian monsoon intensity during MIS 5a. The monsoonal interpretation is based on the idea that δ 13C values reflect the isotopic composition of soil-derived CO2, which, in turn, should relate to monsoon-driven changes in terrestrial productivity above the cave during the MIS 5a. Our reconstruction reveals that the significant monsoonal changes on the Korean peninsula occurred in conjunction with changes in sea level and/or oceanic circulations during the transition period from MIS 5a to MIS 4. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An oxygen isotope record of a stalagmite from Huanglong Cave in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau dated with 230Th and 210Pb methods provides variations of the Asian monsoon with an average resolution of 1 year over the past 50 years. This study shows that the δ18O of dripwater in the cave represents the annual mean δ18O of local meteoric precipitation and the stalagmites were deposited in isotopic equilibrium. A comparison of the stalagmite δ18O record with instrumentally meteorological data indicates that shifts of the δ18O are largely controlled by the amount effect of meteoric precipitation conveyed through the southwest monsoon (the Indian monsoon) and less affected by temperature. Therefore, the variations of δ18O record reflect the changes in monsoon precipitation on inter-annual time scales under the influence of the southwest monsoon. Like many other stalagmite δ18O records in the Asian monsoon regions, the δ18O record of the stalagmite from Huanglong Cave also reveals a gradually enriched trend during the past 50 years, i.e. relatively enriched in 18O. This trend may indicate the decline of the Asian monsoon intensity which is consistent with the decrease of monsoon indices. The weakening of the modern Asian monsoon well matched with the temperature changes in stratosphere, which may illustrate that the weakening of the monsoon mainly results from the lowering of solar radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

230Th ages and oxygen isotope data of a stalagmite from Shanbao Cave in Hubei Province characterize the East Asian Monsoon precipitation from 133 to127 ka. The decadal-scale high-resolution δ18O record reveals a detailed transitional process from the Penultimate Glaciation to the Last Interglaciation. As established with 230Th dates, the age of the Termination II is determined to be 129.5±1.0 kaBP, which supports the Northern Hemisphere insolation as the triggers for the ice-age cycles. In our δ18O record, the glacial/ interglacial fluctuation reaches about 4%o, almost the same level as in other Asian Monsoon cave stalagmite δ18O records. The transition of the glacial/interglacial period in our record can be recognized as four stepwise stages, among which, a rapid rise of monsoon precipitation follows the stage of ‘Termination II pause’. The rapid rise is synchronous with the abrupt change of global methane concentration, which reflects that an increase in both Asian Monsoon precipitation and tropical wetland plays an important role in the global climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on MC-ICP-MS U-series dating and stable O-isotope analysis results, a 4–5 years resolution monsoon record over the past 1000 years has been established for two stalagmites from Dongge Cave, Guizhou. The high resolution oxygen isotope record serves as a proxy for variations in rainfall of Asian southwest monsoon over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. A close relation of the δ18O record with the Δ14C record from tree rings largely reflects impact of centennial-scale solar activity on the monsoon climate changes. The conspicuous decrease in the δ18O value at AD 1720 indicates an abrupt increase in monsoon rainfall, suggesting that an atmospheric-oceanic couple over the tropical Indian Ocean plays an important role in rapid increase of the Northern Hemisphere temperature over the last century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global abrupt climate changes have been documented by various climate records, including ice cores, ocean sediment cores, lake sediment cores, cave deposits, bess deposits and pollen records. The climate system prefers to be in one of two stable states, i.e. interstadial or stadial conditions, but not in between. The transition between two states has an abrupt character. Abrupt climate changes are, in general, synchronous in the northern hemisphere and tropical regions. The timescale for abrupt climate changes can be as short as a decade. As the impacts may be poten- tially serious, we need to take actions such as reducing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any assessment of future climate change requires knowledge of the full range of natural variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here we splice together fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific Ocean to provide 30-150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years. The records indicate mean climate conditions in the central tropical Pacific ranging from relatively cool and dry during the tenth century to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century. But the corals also document a broad range of ENSO behaviour that correlates poorly with these estimates of mean climate. The most intense ENSO activity within the reconstruction occurred during the mid-seventeenth century. Taken together, the coral data imply that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSO system itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]