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Background. Climate change has increased the occurrence of fire-prone weather and extreme weather events in Europe. Improving resilience of forests to reduce fire hazard has become an imperative challenge to tackle. Aims. This study aims to incorporate extreme fire events from future climate projections in developing forest planning and land management scenarios, evaluating fire risk mitigation potential. Methods. Using the wildfire--atmosphere coupled modelling system WRF-SFIRE, land management scenarios for the Lombada Forest Intervention Region (ILMA) in northeast Portugal were assessed under a business-as-usual future climate scenario. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) was used as a predictor of fire danger to select two fire events. Results. Agricultural areas can function as barrier for wildfire conditions under cooler weather. Management of the existing pine forest yielded a reduction in fire spread speed and intensity, namely in lower wind speed regimes, significantly improving suppressive capabilities. Conclusions. Fuel treatment of maritime pine performed best in reducing fire spread rate, intensity and improving suppression capability. Replacing agricultural areas with oak-based land cover can promote higher fire intensity and spread rates in the younger stanges or if left unmanaged. Implications. This framework can be used to provide additional tools for forest management across different landscapes reducing fire hazard and vulnerability and improving forest resilience, under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact on future European large-scale wind energy resource under the latest IPCC CMIP5 future climate projections were analysed. After assessing the models that best reproduce contemporary near-surface wind speeds over Europe, their data was used to assess future changes in the wind energetic resource in Europe. Using a multi-model ensemble composed by the models that showed the best ability to represent contemporary near-surface wind speeds over Europe, the future European large-scale wind energetic resource is projected to increase in Northern-Central Europe (Baltic Sea and surrounding areas), and decrease in the Mediterranean region, mainly by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing scenarios. It is also projected an increase of the intra-annual variability in the Baltic Sea and surrounding areas and a decrease in Mediterranean areas, but no significant changes in the inter-annual variability are expected over Europe. Despite the large uncertainty associated to future climate projections, the findings of this work can serve as background for future downscaling of CMIP5 data to regional-local scales focused on climate change impacts on wind energy, and should be seen as a preliminary warning that a continuous increase of greenhouse gases emissions are expected to impact European wind energy production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change on the future European wind resource were investigated according to two of the latest future climate scenarios of CMIP6. Towards the end of the current century SSP2-4.5 projects that some small localized areas can experience an increase in the future wind energy resource (around 15–30 % in eastern Ukraine and Turkey). However, all other European areas will experience a significant decrease (5–15 %), particularly towards the end of the current century in the British Isles, Poland, western Ukraine and northern Norway (10–20 %). For the same time period, SSP5-8.5 projects a decrease in future wind energy resource in practically all of Europe (10–20 %), particularly at northern Norway, Poland and western Ukraine (25–30 %). There is significant uncertainty in changes in the wind resource inter- and intra-annual variability, although SSP2-4.5 projects an increase of the latter over Iberia and eastern Ukraine. These results reveal that CMIP6 future wind resource projections for Europe show relevant differences when compared to CMIP5. Unlike CMIP5, CMIP6 does not project an increase in wind resource for Northern Europe, showing a strong decline for practically all of Europe by the end of the century (SSP5-8.5). CMIP6 projects a strong increase in wind resource in future summer in some areas of southern Europe, whereas CMIP5 projected the opposite (decrease in southern Europe during summer). Unlike CMIP5, in CMIP6 stronger radiative forcing scenarios not only enhance the differences when compared to milder scenarios, but also change the spatial patterns of changes in the wind resource. • Future European wind resource was investigated with CMIP6 future climate projections. • SSP5-8.5 projects a decrease in future wind resource for practically all of Europe. • However, SSP2-4.5 projects that some areas can witness a slight increase of wind resource. • Changes in the wind resource inter- and intra-annual variability show high uncertainty. • CMIP6 and CMIP5 future wind resource projections for Europe show relevant differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese offshore wind energy sector is experiencing a rapid growth. It is expected that China will become the world leader in terms of installed offshore wind energy capacity in the upcoming years. A multi-model ensemble of eight simulations from CORDEX project was considered to evaluate future offshore wind energy projections along the Chinese coast under the RCP8.5 warming scenario. Furthermore, offshore wind energy resource was classified attending to the richness of the resource, stability of the resource, risk and economic factors. The reliability of the CORDEX multi-model ensemble was analyzed by comparing CORDEX wind speed with two different datasets: in-situ data from oceanic buoys and ERA5 database. A general wind power density decrease was observed for the near future and the far future. At seasonal scale, differences were found depending on the season. Thus, a clear reduction was projected during spring, whilst increases were observed in wide areas during winter or autumn. Regarding the classification of the future offshore wind energy resource for the upcoming decades, most of the Chinese coastal area was defined as good or excellent due to its high offshore wind energy richness that compensate the low values on stability of the resource and risk factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy plays a key role into achieving the international targets for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Considering that these forms of energy are dependent on climate conditions and that their variability occurs at different time scales, it is important to analyze the complementarity to ensure a stable power supply to the grid in the context of climate change. A multi-model ensemble of 10 global climate models from the CMIP6 project was used to analyze the complementarity between wind and solar photovoltaic power in North America from 2025 to 2054 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. This complementarity was evaluated using two indices that account for the similarity between the two resources (Similarity index, S i) and the temporal complementarity (Concurrency index, C i). The combination of the two resources reduced spatial heterogeneity in terms of annual mean power in North America. The highest values of S i were detected west of California and in the Caribbean Sea, and the lowest were found in Mexico. Regarding C i , the highest values were detected in ocean areas north of 30°N. Both indices were divided into four categories to assess the most suitable areas for combining wind and solar photovoltaic power. Coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico and substantial areas in the Caribbean Sea are considered optimal in terms of complementarity. Inland, good complementarity was observed on the US-Canada border (e.g., the Great Lakes) and in northern areas such as Alaska or the Labrador Peninsula. The lowest values of complementarity were detected in Mexico. • Global Climate Models simulate well future wind and solar resource in North America. • Complementarity among resources were studied in terms of similarity and concurrency. • Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are the most suitable areas for combining powers. • Inland, good complementarity was observed on the US-Canada border. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of marine renewable power is a major alternative for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions. In Europe, however, the high penetration of offshore wind brings intermittency and power variability into the existing power grid. Offshore solar photovoltaic power is another technological alternative under consideration in the plans for decarbonization. However, future variations in wind, air temperature or solar radiation due to climate change will have a great impact on both renewable energy resources. In this context, this study focusses on the offshore energy assessment off the coast of Western Iberia, a European region encompassing Portugal and the Northwestern part of Spain. Making use of a vast source of data from 35 simulations of a research project called CORDEX, this study investigates the complementarity of offshore wind and solar energy sources with the aim of improving the energy supply stability of this region up to 2040. Although the offshore wind energy resource has proven to be higher than solar photovoltaic resource at annual scale, both renewable resources showed significant spatiotemporal energy variability throughout the western Iberian Peninsula. When both renewable resources are combined, the stability of the energy resource increased considerably throughout the year. The proposed wind and solar combination scheme is assessed by a performance classification method called Delphi, considering stability, resource, risk, and economic factors. The total index classification increases when resource stability is improved by considering hybrid offshore wind-photovoltaic solar energy production, especially along the nearshore waters. • Regional Climate Models reproduce well wind, air temperature and surface radiation. • Offshore wind and solar resources show high temporal variability during the year. • Hybrid wind-solar system reduces spatial and temporal variability of the resource. • Offshore wind resource was rated at least as good in most of the western Iberia. • Hybrid wind-solar system improves the final classification in several areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Impact of climate change on offshore wind energy is relevant in the decision making. • Regional models properly reproduce offshore wind on the United States coasts. • A decrease of the offshore wind resource is projected along the 21st century. • The central area of both coasts was classified as excellent (present and future) • A slight decrease is projected in the wind energy classification for the east coast. Despite the United States of America offshore wind energy sector is currently ramping up in terms of offshore wind farms projects and investment, installed offshore wind farms are yet scarce in the country (30 MW currently installed). Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the current offshore wind energy resource and the projected future variations since an important development is expected in the next decade for the United States offshore wind energy sector. With this aim, simulations from 12 Regional Climate Models from North America Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling Experiment were used after proving its reliability by comparing the wind speed from simulations with in-situ data. A decrease of the offshore wind energy resource is projected along the 21st century in the United States, especially in the east coast. The central west coast is the only exception to this decrease trend during the near and mid future. In addition, the offshore wind energy resource was classified following a Delphi approach and considering three factors: wind energy, environmental risk and costs. Under this classification, most of the area under scope in both coasts was classified at least as a 4, which is considered as "good" resource. A higher wind energy resource was found for the west coast, with vast coastal areas categorized as 5 ("excellent"). A slight decrease was projected on the United States east coast, mainly caused by a reduction in the indices related to the mean wind speed and the stability of the resource throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increment of the share of renewable energies in the global mix implies that all renewable energies must be exploited. In this sense, it is necessary to make significant research and investment effort in the particular case of wave energy to reach the degree of maturity of other marine energies in the near future. Apart from the inherent factors that hinder the development of wave energy, such as the non-existence of a market-leading type of capturing device, uncertainties about the available future resource also hamper its growth. In this article, a review of the procedures followed in the literature to deal with the future wave energy resources and their subsequent exploitation is described. These procedures include the evaluation of the best future atmospheric models to drive wave models, the different downscaling techniques to evaluate the resource in large regions with high spatial resolution, and the analysis of the variability of the future energy resource and its future exploitability in a certain region taking into account different types of devices. Additionally, the current state of the art of previous studies dealing with future wave energy resources for different locations worldwide is described. Despite the difficulties involved in studying future wave energy resources, the high technological readiness level of the offshore wind industry, the creation of power generation farms with combined technologies, and the growth of marine aquaculture in the coming years could generate synergies that provide the definitive impulse to achieve the necessary technological development. • All renewable energies must be exploited to increase their share in the global mix. • Wave energy has the highest energy density but a low Technologic Readiness Level. • Different approaches to assess the future impact of climate change on wave resource. • Reviewing previous studies focused on future wave climate and wave energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The skill of CORDEX models to reproduce wind over the Iberian Peninsula. • CORDEX RCMs showed a higher skill than CMIP5 GCMs to reproduce in-situ data. • CORDEX wind speed was projected for the 21st century showing an overall decrease. • Wind increase is only projected at some isolated locations. Abstract The accuracy of CORDEX regional models to reproduce wind speed was assessed at 15 wind farms (216 wind turbines) and 13 oceanic buoys covering the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean during 2012. Models were able to reproduce with relative accuracy both the mean wind speed, with a mean error of 19% inland and 10% offshore, and the wind distribution, with an overlap percentage between distributions of 82 ± 5% inland and 83 ± 3% offshore. In addition, CORDEX regional models showed a skill higher than CMIP5 general models. Wind speed and wind power were projected over the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the surrounding ocean for three future periods: near future (2019–2045), midterm (2046–2072) and far future (2073–2099) both at annual and seasonal scales. Both wind speed and wind power will decrease over most of the area with the exception of some regions as: Galicia; the Atlantic coast of Galicia and north of Portugal; the Ebro Valley; the upper Douro Valley; the Guadalquivir Valley; the Strait of Gibraltar and Cape Gata where both will tend to increase. This increase is projected to occur mostly during summer except at the Strait of Gibraltar where it will occur all year long. The change in wind speed and power is higher as farthest the future period is. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different urban resilience measures, such as the increase of urban green areas and the application of white roofs, were evaluated with the WRF-SUEWS modelling system. The case study consists of five heat waves occurring in Porto (Portugal) urban area in a future climate scenario. Meteorological forcing and boundary data were downscaled for Porto urban area from the CMIP5 earth system model MPI-ESM, for the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of different resilience measures on the energy balance components was quantified and compared between each other. Results show that the inclusion of green urban areas increases the evaporation and the availability of surface moisture, redirecting the energy to the form of latent heat flux (maximum increase of + 200 W m − 2 ) rather than to sensible heat. The application of white roofs increases the solar radiation reflection, due to the higher albedo of such surfaces, reducing both sensible and storage heat flux (maximum reductions of − 62.8 and − 35 W m − 2 , respectively). The conjugations of the individual benefits related to each resilience measure shows that this measure is the most effective one in terms of improving the thermal comfort of the urban population, particularly due to the reduction of both sensible and storage heat flux. The obtained results contribute to the knowledge of the surface-atmosphere exchanges and can be of great importance for stakeholders and decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]