107 results on '"Bi, Peng"'
Search Results
2. Climate change and infectious disease surveillance in Nepal: qualitative study exploring social, cultural, political and institutional factors influencing disease surveillance.
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Bhandari D, Bi P, Sherchand JB, von Ehrenstein OS, Lokmic-Tomkins Z, Dhimal M, and Hanson-Easey S
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- Humans, Nepal epidemiology, Public Health, Risk Factors, Climate Change, Communicable Diseases epidemiology
- Abstract
Background: To explore the impacts of contextual issues encompassing social, cultural, political and institutional elements, on the operation of public health surveillance systems in Nepal concerning the monitoring of infectious diseases in the face of a changing climate., Methods: Semi-structured interviews (n = 16) were conducted amongst key informants from the Department of Health Services, Health Information Management System, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, World Health Organization, and experts working on infectious disease and climate change in Nepal, and data were analysed using thematic analysis technique., Results: Analysis explicates how climate change is constructed as a contingent risk for infectious diseases transmission and public health systems, and treated less seriously than other 'salient' public health risks, having implications for how resources are allocated. Further, analysis suggests a weak alliance among different stakeholders, particularly policy makers and evidence generators, resulting in the continuation of traditional practices of infectious diseases surveillance without consideration of the impacts of climate change., Conclusions: We argue that along with strengthening systemic issues (epidemiological capacity, data quality and inter-sectoral collaboration), it is necessary to build a stronger political commitment to urgently address the influence of climate change as a present and exponential risk factor in the spread of infectious disease in Nepal., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
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- 2024
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3. Short-Term Effects of Climate Variability on Childhood Diarrhoea in Bangladesh: Multi-Site Time-Series Regression Analysis.
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Rahaman MR, Dear K, Satter SM, Tong M, Milazzo A, Marshall H, Varghese BM, Rahman M, and Bi P
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- Humans, Child, Child, Preschool, Bangladesh epidemiology, Hospitalization, Temperature, Regression Analysis, Diarrhea epidemiology, Climate Change
- Abstract
The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of climate on childhood diarrhoea hospitalisations across six administrative divisions in Bangladesh and to provide scientific evidence for local health authorities for disease control and prevention. Fortnightly hospital admissions (August/2013-June/2017) for diarrhoea in children under five years of age, and fortnightly average maximum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall recordings for six administrative divisions were modelled using negative binomial regression with distributed lag linear terms. Flexible spline functions were used to adjust models for seasonality and long-term trends. During the study period, 25,385 diarrhoea cases were hospitalised. Overall, each 1 °C rise in maximum temperature increased diarrhoea hospitalisations by 4.6% (IRR = 1.046; 95% CI, 1.007-1.088) after adjusting for seasonality and long-term trends in the unlagged model. Using lagged effects of maximum temperature, and adjusting for relative humidity and rainfall for each of the six administrative divisions, the relationship between maximum temperature and diarrhoea hospitalisations varied between divisions, with positive and negative effect estimates. The temperature-diarrhoea association may be confounded by seasonality and long-term trends. Our findings are a reminder that the effects of climate change may be heterogeneous across regions, and that tailored diarrhoea prevention strategies need to consider region-specific recommendations rather than relying on generic guidelines.
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- 2023
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4. Understanding current and projected emergency department presentations and associated healthcare costs in a changing thermal climate in Adelaide, South Australia.
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Wondmagegn BY, Xiang J, Dear K, Williams S, Hansen A, Pisaniello D, Nitschke M, Nairn J, Scalley B, Xiao A, Jian L, Tong M, Bambrick H, Karnon J, and Bi P
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- Emergency Service, Hospital, Health Care Costs, Humans, South Australia epidemiology, Climate Change, Hot Temperature
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Background: Exposure to extreme temperatures is associated with increased emergency department (ED) presentations. The resulting burden on health service costs and the potential impact of climate change is largely unknown. This study examines the temperature-EDs/cost relationships in Adelaide, South Australia and how this may be impacted by increasing temperatures., Methods: A time series analysis using a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to explore the exposure-response relationships. The net-attributable, cold-attributable and heat-attributable ED presentations for temperature-related diseases and costs were calculated for the baseline (2014-2017) and future periods (2034-2037 and 2054-2057) under three climate representative concentration pathways (RCPs)., Results: The baseline heat-attributable ED presentations were estimated to be 3600 (95% empirical CI (eCI) 700 to 6500) with associated cost of $A4.7 million (95% eCI 1.8 to 7.5). Heat-attributable ED presentations and costs were projected to increase during 2030s and 2050s with no change in the cold-attributable burden. Under RCP8.5 and population growth, the increase in heat-attributable burden would be 1.9% (95% eCI 0.8% to 3.0%) for ED presentations and 2.5% (95% eCI 1.3% to 3.7%) for ED costs during 2030s. Under the same conditions, the heat effect is expected to increase by 3.7% (95% eCI 1.7% to 5.6%) for ED presentations and 5.0% (95% eCI 2.6% to 7.1%) for ED costs during 2050s., Conclusions: Projected climate change is likely to increase heat-attributable emergency presentations and the associated costs in Adelaide. Planning health service resources to meet these changes will be necessary as part of broader risk mitigation strategies and public health adaptation actions., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)
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- 2022
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5. Is there an association between hot weather and poor mental health outcomes? A systematic review and meta-analysis.
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Liu J, Varghese BM, Hansen A, Xiang J, Zhang Y, Dear K, Gourley M, Driscoll T, Morgan G, Capon A, and Bi P
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- Humans, Morbidity, Outcome Assessment, Health Care, Temperature, Climate Change, Hot Temperature
- Abstract
Background: Mental health is an important public health issue globally. A potential link between heat exposure and mental health outcomes has been recognised in the scientific literature; however, the associations between heat exposure (both high ambient temperatures and heatwaves) and mental health-related mortality and morbidity vary between studies and locations., Objective: To fill gaps in knowledge, this systematic review aims to summarize the epidemiological evidence and investigate the quantitative effects of high ambient temperatures and heatwaves on mental health-related mortality and morbidity outcomes, while exploring sources of heterogeneity., Methods: A systematic search of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies on heat exposure and mental health outcomes published between January 1990 and November 2020 was conducted using five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and PsycINFO). We included studies that examined the association between high ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and mental health-related mortality and morbidity (e.g. hospital admissions and emergency department visits) in the general population. A range of mental health conditions were defined using ICD-10 classifications. We performed random effects meta-analysis to summarize the relative risks (RRs) in mental health outcomes per 1 °C increase in temperature, and under different heatwaves definitions. We further evaluated whether variables such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, and climate zone may explain the observed heterogeneity., Results: The keyword search yielded 4560 citations from which we identified 53 high temperatures/heatwaves studies that comprised over 1.7 million mental health-related mortality and 1.9 million morbidity cases in total. Our findings suggest associations between heat exposures and a range of mental health-related outcomes. Regarding high temperatures, our meta-analysis of study findings showed that for each 1 °C increase in temperature, the mental health-related mortality and morbidity increased with a RR of 1.022 (95%CI: 1.015-1.029) and 1.009 (95%CI: 1.007-1.015), respectively. The greatest mortality risk was attributed to substance-related mental disorders (RR, 1.046; 95%CI: 0.991-1.101), followed by organic mental disorders (RR, 1.033; 95%CI: 1.020-1.046). A 1 °C temperature rise was also associated with a significant increase in morbidity such as mood disorders, organic mental disorders, schizophrenia, neurotic and anxiety disorders. Findings suggest evidence of vulnerability for populations living in tropical and subtropical climate zones, and for people aged more than 65 years. There were significant moderate and high heterogeneities between effect estimates in overall mortality and morbidity categories, respectively. Lower heterogeneity was noted in some subgroups. The magnitude of the effect estimates for heatwaves varied depending on definitions used. The highest effect estimates for mental health-related morbidity was observed when heatwaves were defined as "mean temperature ≥90th percentile for ≥3 days" (RR, 1.753; 95%CI: 0.567-5.421), and a significant effect was also observed when the definition was "mean temperature ≥95th percentile for ≥3 days", with a RR of 1.064 (95%CI: 1.006-1.123)., Conclusions: Our findings support the hypothesis of a positive association between elevated ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and adverse mental health outcomes. This problem will likely increase with a warming climate, especially in the context of climate change. Further high-quality studies are needed to identify modifying factors of heat impacts., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)
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- 2021
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6. Increasing impacts of temperature on hospital admissions, length of stay, and related healthcare costs in the context of climate change in Adelaide, South Australia.
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Wondmagegn BY, Xiang J, Dear K, Williams S, Hansen A, Pisaniello D, Nitschke M, Nairn J, Scalley B, Xiao A, Jian L, Tong M, Bambrick H, Karnon J, and Bi P
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- Aged, Health Care Costs, Hospitals, Humans, Length of Stay, South Australia, Temperature, Climate Change, Hot Temperature
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Background: A growing number of studies have investigated the effect of increasing temperatures on morbidity and health service use. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature-attributable cost burden., Objectives: This study examines the relationship of daily mean temperature with hospital admissions, length of hospital stay (LoS), and costs; and estimates the baseline temperature-attributable hospital admissions, and costs and in relation to warmer climate scenarios in Adelaide, South Australia., Method: A daily time series analysis using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) was used to explore exposure-response relationships and to estimate the aggregated burden of hospital admissions for conditions associated with temperatures (i.e. renal diseases, mental health, diabetes, ischaemic heart diseases and heat-related illnesses) as well as the associated LoS and costs, for the baseline period (2010-2015) and different future climate scenarios in Adelaide, South Australia., Results: During the six-year baseline period, the overall temperature-attributable hospital admissions, LoS, and associated costs were estimated to be 3915 cases (95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 235, 7295), 99,766 days (95% eCI: 14,484, 168,457), and AU$159 million (95% eCI: 18.8, 269.0), respectively. A climate scenario consistent with RCP8.5 emissions, and including projected demographic change, is estimated to lead to increases in heat-attributable hospital admissions, LoS, and costs of 2.2% (95% eCI: 0.5, 3.9), 8.4% (95% eCI: 1.1, 14.3), and 7.7% (95% eCI: 0.3, 13.3), respectively by mid-century., Conclusions: There is already a substantial temperature-attributable impact on hospital admissions, LoS, and costs which are estimated to increase due to climate change and an increasing aged population. Unless effective climate and public health interventions are put into action, the costs of treating temperature-related admissions will be high., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2021
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7. The impact of climate change on kidney health.
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Borg MA and Bi P
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- Acute Kidney Injury etiology, Delivery of Health Care, Health Care Costs, Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome etiology, Humans, Kidney Diseases economics, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic etiology, Climate Change, Kidney Diseases etiology
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- 2021
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8. Local actions to health risks of heatwaves and dengue fever under climate change: Strategies and barriers among primary healthcare professionals in southern China.
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Yang L, Liu C, Bi P, Vardoulakis S, and Huang C
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- China epidemiology, Cross-Sectional Studies, Humans, Primary Health Care, Climate Change, Dengue epidemiology
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Background: Climate change and extreme weather poses significant threats to community health, which need to be addressed by local health workforce. This study investigated the perceptions of primary healthcare professionals in Southern China on individual and institutional strategies for actions on health impacts of climate change and the related barriers., Methods: A mixed methodological approach was adopted, involving a cross-sectional questionnaire survey of 733 primary healthcare professionals (including medical doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, allied health workers and managers) selected through a multistage cluster randomized sampling strategy, and in-depth interviews of 25 key informants in Guangdong Province, China. The questionnaire survey investigated the perceptions of respondents on the health impacts of climate change and the individual and institutional actions that need to be taken in response to climate change. Multivariate logistic regression models were established to determine sociodemographic factors associated with the perceptions. The interviews tapped into coping strategies and perceived barriers in primary health care to adapt to tackle challenges of climate change. Contents analyses were performed to extract important themes., Results and Conclusion: The majority (64%) of respondents agreed that climate change is happening, but only 53.6% believed in its human causes. Heat waves and infectious diseases were highly recognized as health problems associated with climate change. There was a strong consensus on the need to strengthen individual and institutional capacities in response to health impacts of climate change. The respondents believed that it is important to educate the public, take active efforts to control infectious vectors, and pay increased attention to the health care of vulnerable populations. The lack of funding and limited local workforce capacity is a major barrier for taking actions. Climate change should be integrated into primary health care development through sustainable governmental funding and resource support., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2020
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9. Climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal: Are the available prerequisites supportive enough to researchers?
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Bhandari D, Bi P, Sherchand JB, Dhimal M, and Hanson-Easey S
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- Animals, Foodborne Diseases epidemiology, Humans, Nepal, Public Health, Research Personnel, Biomedical Research, Climate Change, Communicable Diseases epidemiology
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Although Nepal has been identified as a country highly vulnerable to adverse health and socioeconomic impacts arising from climate change, extant research on climate sensitive infectious diseases has yet to develop the evidence base to adequately address these threats. In this opinion paper we identify and characterise basic requirements that are hindering the progress of climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal. Our opinion is that immediate attention should be given to strengthening Nepal's public health surveillance system, promoting inter-sectoral collaboration, improving public health capacity, and enhancing community engagement in disease surveillance. Moreover, we advocate for greater technical support of public health researchers, and data sharing among data custodians and epidemiologists/researchers, to generate salient evidence to guide relevant public health policy formulation aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change on human health in Nepal. International studies on climate variability and infectious diseases have clearly demonstrated that climate sensitive diseases, namely vector-borne and food/water-borne diseases, are sensitive to climate variation and climate change. This research has driven the development and implementation of climate-based early warning systems for preventing potential outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases across many European and African countries. Similarly, we postulate that Nepal would greatly benefit from a climate-based early warning system, which would assist in identification or prediction of conditions suitable for disease emergence and facilitate a timely response to reduce mortality and morbidity during epidemics., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
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- 2020
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10. The 2019 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress.
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Beggs PJ, Zhang Y, Bambrick H, Berry HL, Linnenluecke MK, Trueck S, Bi P, Boylan SM, Green D, Guo Y, Hanigan IC, Johnston FH, Madden DL, Malik A, Morgan GG, Perkins-Kirkpatrick S, Rychetnik L, Stevenson M, Watts N, and Capon AG
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- Australia, Economics, Environmental Exposure, Extreme Heat, Federal Government, Healthcare Financing, Humans, Local Government, Mosquito Vectors, Politics, Renewable Energy, State Government, Vector Borne Diseases, Wildfires, Climate Change, Environmental Policy, Health, Health Planning, Health Policy
- Abstract
The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017 and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018. It examined 41 indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. It found that, overall, Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In this report we present the 2019 update. We track progress on health and climate change in Australia across the same five broad domains and many of the same indicators as in 2018. A number of new indicators are introduced this year, including one focused on wildfire exposure, and another on engagement in health and climate change in the corporate sector. Several of the previously reported indicators are not included this year, either due to their discontinuation by the parent project, the Lancet Countdown, or because insufficient new data were available for us to meaningfully provide an update to the indicator. In a year marked by an Australian federal election in which climate change featured prominently, we find mixed progress on health and climate change in this country. There has been progress in renewable energy generation, including substantial employment increases in this sector. There has also been some progress at state and local government level. However, there continues to be no engagement on health and climate change in the Australian federal Parliament, and Australia performs poorly across many of the indicators in comparison to other developed countries; for example, it is one of the world's largest net exporters of coal and its electricity generation from low carbon sources is low. We also find significantly increasing exposure of Australians to heatwaves and, in most states and territories, continuing elevated suicide rates at higher temperatures. We conclude that Australia remains at significant risk of declines in health due to climate change, and that substantial and sustained national action is urgently required in order to prevent this., (© 2019 AMPCo Pty Ltd.)
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- 2019
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11. The impact of climate variability on infectious disease transmission in China: Current knowledge and further directions.
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Yi L, Xu X, Ge W, Xue H, Li J, Li D, Wang C, Wu H, Liu X, Zheng D, Chen Z, Liu Q, Bi P, and Li J
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- China, Humans, Humidity, Incidence, Temperature, Climate Change, Communicable Diseases, Dengue, Environmental Exposure
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Background: Climate change may lead to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and pose public health challenges to human health and the already overloaded healthcare system. It is therefore important to review current knowledge and identify further directions in China, the largest developing country in the world., Methods: A comprehensive literature review was conducted to examine the relationship between climate variability and infectious disease transmission in China in the new millennium. Literature was identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: climatic variables [temperature, precipitation, rainfall, humidity, etc.] and infectious disease [viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases]., Results: Fifty-eight articles published from January 1, 2000 to May 30, 2018 were included in the final analysis, including bacterial diarrhea, dengue, malaria, Japanese encephalitis, HFRS, HFMD, Schistosomiasis. Each 1 °C rise may lead to 3.6%-14.8% increase in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease in south China. A 1 °C rise was corresponded to an increase of 1.8%-5.9% in the weekly notified HFMD cases in west China. Each 1 °C rise of temperature, 1% rise in relative humidity and one hour rise in sunshine led to an increase of 0.90%, 3.99% and 0.68% in the monthly malaria cases, respectively. Climate change with the increased temperature and irregular patterns of rainfall may affect the pathogen reproduction rate, their spread and geographical distribution, change human behavior and influence the ecology of vectors, and increase the rate of disease transmission in different regions of China., Conclusion: Exploring relevant adaptation strategies and the health burden of climate change will assist public health authorities to develop an early warning system and protect China's population health, especially in the new 1.5 °C scenario of the newly released IPCC special report., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
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- 2019
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12. Dengue control in the context of climate change: Views from health professionals in different geographic regions of China.
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Tong MX, Hansen A, Hanson-Easey S, Xiang J, Cameron S, Liu Q, Liu X, Sun Y, Weinstein P, Han GS, Williams C, Mahmood A, and Bi P
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- Adult, China epidemiology, Cross-Sectional Studies, Demography, Dengue prevention & control, Female, Humans, Male, Surveys and Questionnaires, Young Adult, Attitude of Health Personnel, Climate Change, Dengue epidemiology
- Abstract
Background: Dengue is a significant climate-sensitive disease. Public health professionals play an important role in prevention and control of the disease. This study aimed to explore dengue control and prevention in the context of climate change in China., Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 public health professionals in 2015. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were performed., Results: More than 80% of participants from southwest and central China believed climate change would affect dengue. However, participants from northeast China were less likely to believe so (65%). Sixty-nine percent of participants in Yunnan perceived that dengue had emerged/re-emerged in recent years, compared with 40.6% in Henan and 23.8% in Liaoning. Less than 60% of participants thought current prevention and control programs had been effective. Participants believed mosquitoes in high abundance, imported cases and climate change were main risk factors for dengue in China., Conclusion: There were varying views of dengue in China. Professionals in areas susceptible to dengue were more likely to be concerned about climate change and dengue. Current prevention and control strategies need to be improved. Providing more information for staff in lower levels of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may help in containing a possible increase of dengue., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
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- 2019
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13. The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives.
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Zhang Y, Beggs PJ, Bambrick H, Berry HL, Linnenluecke MK, Trueck S, Alders R, Bi P, Boylan SM, Green D, Guo Y, Hanigan IC, Hanna EG, Malik A, Morgan GG, Stevenson M, Tong S, Watts N, and Capon AG
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- Australia, Conservation of Natural Resources, Environmental Biomarkers, Humans, Climate Change, Global Health, Health Policy
- Abstract
Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.
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- 2018
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14. Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index.
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Nairn J, Ostendorf B, and Bi P
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- Climate, Forecasting, Humans, Risk, Climate Change, Infrared Rays
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The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor ( EHF ) has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to publicly release 7-day heatwave severity maps since 2014. National meteorological agencies in the UK and the United States are evaluating global 7-day and multi-week EHF heatwave severity probability forecasts, whilst the Bureau contributes to a Copernicus project to supply the health sector with global EHF severity heatwave projection scenarios. In an evaluation of impact skill within global forecast systems, EHF intensity and severity is reviewed as a predictor of human health impact, and extended using climate observations and human health data for sites around the globe. Heatwave intensity, determined by short and long-term temperature anomalies at each locality, is normalized to permit spatial analysis and inter-site comparison. Dimensionless heatwave event moments of peak severity and accumulated severity are shown to correlate with noteworthy events around the globe, offering new insights into current and future heatwave variability and vulnerability. The EHF severity metric permits the comparison of international heatwave events and their impacts, and is readily implemented within international heatwave early warning systems.
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- 2018
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15. China's capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change.
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Tong MX, Hansen A, Hanson-Easey S, Xiang J, Cameron S, Liu Q, Liu X, Sun Y, Weinstein P, Han GS, and Bi P
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- Adult, Capacity Building, China, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Health Care Surveys, Humans, Male, Personnel, Hospital statistics & numerical data, Young Adult, Attitude of Health Personnel, Climate Change, Communicable Diseases therapy, Hospital Administration, Personnel, Hospital psychology
- Abstract
Objectives: Infectious diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in China. The capacity of hospitals to deal with the challenge from emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change is of great importance to population health. This study aimed to explore the capacity of hospitals in China to deal with such challenges., Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was utilized to gauge information regarding capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change among 611 clinical professionals whose roles pertained to infectious disease diagnosis, treatment and management in Anhui Province of China. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed on the data., Results: More than 90% of participants believed climate change would have an adverse influence on population health and infectious disease control in China. Most indicated that their hospitals were well prepared for emerging infectious diseases at present, and they considered that logistical support in hospitals (e.g. administrative and maintenance services) should be strengthened for future capacity building. The majority of participants suggested that effective prevention and control measures, more interdisciplinary collaborations, more funding in rural areas for health care, and improved access to facilities enabling online reporting of infectious diseases, were extremely important strategies in building capacity to curb the population health impact of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change in China., Conclusions: Clinical professionals recognized that climate change will likely increase the transmission of infectious diseases. Although rural health care and hospitals' logistical support need to be improved, most professionals believed their hospitals to be capable of dealing with emerging diseases. They thought that interdisciplinary and cross-regional collaborations, together with necessary resource support (e.g. improved facilities for rural health care) would be important control strategies., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
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- 2018
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16. Does hot weather affect work-related injury? A case-crossover study in Guangzhou, China.
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Sheng R, Li C, Wang Q, Yang L, Bao J, Wang K, Ma R, Gao C, Lin S, Zhang Y, Bi P, Fu C, and Huang C
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- Adult, Age Factors, Aged, China, Cities, Construction Industry, Cross-Over Studies, Female, Humans, Male, Manufacturing Industry, Middle Aged, Occupational Health, Seasons, Sex Factors, Transportation, Workers' Compensation, Young Adult, Climate Change, Hot Temperature adverse effects, Industry, Occupational Exposure adverse effects, Occupational Injuries etiology, Work, Workplace
- Abstract
Background: Despite increasing concerns about the health effects of climate change, the extent to which workers are affected by hot weather is not well documented. This study aims to investigate the association between high temperatures and work-related injuries using data from a large subtropical city in China., Methods: We used workers' compensation claims to identify work-related injuries in Guangzhou, China during 2011-2012. To feature the heat effect, the study period was restricted to the warm seasons in Guangzhou (1 May-31 October). We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between ambient outdoor temperatures, including daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and cases of work-related injury. The relationships were assessed using conditional Poisson regression models., Results: Overall, a total of 5418 workers' compensation claims were included over the study period. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were significantly associated with work-related injuries, but associations varied by subgroup. One °C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a 1.4% (RR = 1.014, 95%CIs 1.012-1.017) increase in daily injury claims. Significant associations were seen for male and middle-aged workers, workers in small and medium-sized enterprises, and those working in manufacturing sector. And 1 °C increase in minimum temperature was associated with 1.7% (RR = 1.017, 95%CIs 1.012-1.021) increase in daily injury claims. Significant associations were observed for female and middle-aged workers, workers in large-sized enterprises, and those working in transport and construction sectors., Conclusions: We found a higher risk of work-related injuries due to hot weather in Guangzhou, China. This study provides important epidemiological evidence for policy-makers and industry that may assist in the formulation of occupational safety and climate adaptation strategies., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)
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- 2018
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17. Perceptions of malaria control and prevention in an era of climate change: a cross-sectional survey among CDC staff in China.
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Tong MX, Hansen A, Hanson-Easey S, Cameron S, Xiang J, Liu Q, Liu X, Sun Y, Weinstein P, Han GS, Williams C, and Bi P
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- Adult, Attitude of Health Personnel, China, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Government Agencies, Humans, Malaria epidemiology, Male, Middle Aged, Surveys and Questionnaires, Young Adult, Climate Change, Communicable Disease Control methods, Communicable Disease Control organization & administration, Disease Transmission, Infectious prevention & control, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Health Personnel psychology, Malaria prevention & control
- Abstract
Background: Though there was the significant decrease in the incidence of malaria in central and southwest China during the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a re-emergence of malaria since 2000., Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst the staff of eleven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China to gauge their perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission and its control and prevention. Descriptive analysis was performed to study CDC staff's knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and suggestions for malaria control in the face of climate change., Results: A majority (79.8%) of CDC staff were concerned about climate change and 79.7% believed the weather was becoming warmer. Most participants (90.3%) indicated climate change had a negative effect on population health, 92.6 and 86.8% considered that increasing temperatures and precipitation would influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases including malaria. About half (50.9%) of the surveyed staff indicated malaria had re-emerged in recent years, and some outbreaks were occurring in new geographic areas. The main reasons for such re-emergence were perceived to be: mosquitoes in high-density, numerous imported cases, climate change, poor environmental conditions, internal migrant populations, and lack of health awareness., Conclusions: This study found most CDC staff endorsed the statement that climate change had a negative impact on infectious disease transmission. Malaria had re-emerged in some areas of China, and most of the staff believed that this can be managed. However, high densities of mosquitoes and the continuous increase in imported cases of malaria in local areas, together with environmental changes are bringing about critical challenges to malaria control in China. This study contributes to an understanding of climate change related perceptions of malaria control and prevention amongst CDC staff. It may help to formulate in-house training guidelines, community health promotion programmes and policies to improve the capacity of malaria control and prevention in the face of climate change in China.
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- 2017
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18. Workers' perceptions of climate change related extreme heat exposure in South Australia: a cross-sectional survey.
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Xiang J, Hansen A, Pisaniello D, and Bi P
- Subjects
- Adult, Age Factors, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Heat Stress Disorders psychology, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Occupational Exposure legislation & jurisprudence, Occupational Health legislation & jurisprudence, Safety, South Australia, Workplace legislation & jurisprudence, Workplace statistics & numerical data, Young Adult, Climate Change, Extreme Heat adverse effects, Heat Stress Disorders prevention & control, Occupational Exposure statistics & numerical data, Occupational Health statistics & numerical data, Workplace psychology
- Abstract
Background: Occupational exposure to extreme heat without sufficient protection may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise economic productivity. With predictions of more frequent and intense bouts of hot weather, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers' health and safety. This study aims to investigate workers' perceptions and behavioural responses towards extreme heat exposure in a warming climate., Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2012 in South Australia among selected outdoor industries. Workers' heat risk perceptions were measured in the following five aspects: concerns about heat exposure, attitudes towards more training, policy and guideline support, the adjustment of work habits, and degree of satisfaction of current preventive measures. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors significantly associated with workers' heat perceptions., Results: A total of 749 respondents participated in this survey, with a response rate of 50.9 %. A little more than half (51.2 %) of respondents were moderately or very much concerned about workplace heat exposure. Factors associated with workers' heat concerns included age, undertaking very physically demanding work, and the use of personal protective equipment, heat illness history, and injury experience during hot weather. Less than half (43.4 %) of the respondents had received heat-related training. Workers aged 25-54 years and those with previous heat-related illness/injury history showed more supportive attitudes towards heat-related training. The provision of cool drinking water was the most common heat prevention measure. A little more than half (51.4 %) of respondents were satisfied with the current heat prevention measures. About two-thirds (63.8 %) of respondents agreed that there should be more heat-related regulations and guidelines for working during very hot weather. More than two-thirds (68.8 %) of the respondents were willing to adjust their current work habits to adapt to the likely increasing extreme heat, especially those with previous heat illness experience., Conclusions: The findings suggest a need to strengthen workers' heat risk awareness and refine current heat prevention strategies in a warming climate. Further heat educational programmes and training should focus on those undertaking physically demanding work outdoors, in particular young workers and those over 55 years with low education levels.
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- 2016
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19. Perceptions of capacity for infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenges of dengue fever in the face of climate change: A survey among CDC staff in Guangdong Province, China.
- Author
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Tong MX, Hansen A, Hanson-Easey S, Xiang J, Cameron S, Liu Q, Liu X, Sun Y, Weinstein P, Han GS, Williams C, and Bi P
- Subjects
- Adult, China, Communicable Diseases, Female, Health Personnel, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Surveys and Questionnaires, Young Adult, Climate Change, Communicable Disease Control, Dengue prevention & control, Government Agencies, Perception
- Abstract
Background: Dengue fever is an important climate-sensitive mosquito-borne viral disease that poses a risk to half the world's population. The disease is a major public health issue in China where in 2014 a major outbreak occurred in Guangdong Province. This study aims to gauge health professionals' perceptions about the capacity of infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenge of dengue fever in the face of climate change in Guangdong Province, China., Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was administered among staff in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) in Guangdong Province. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods and logistic regression., Results: In total, 260 questionnaires were completed. Most participants (80.7%) thought climate change would have a negative effect on population health, and 98.4% of participants reported dengue fever had emerged or re-emerged in China in recent years. Additionally, 74.9% of them indicated that the capability of the CDCs to detect infectious disease outbreak/epidemic at an early stage was excellent; 86.3% indicated laboratories could provide diagnostic support rapidly; and 83.1% believed levels of current staff would be adequate in the event of a major outbreak. Logistic regression analysis showed higher levels of CDCs were perceived to have better capacity for infectious disease control and prevention. Only 26.8% of participants thought they had a good understanding of climate change, and most (85.4%) thought they needed more information about the health impacts of climate change. Most surveyed staff suggested the following strategies to curb the public health impact of infectious diseases in relation to climate change: primary prevention measures, strengthening the monitoring of infectious diseases, the ability to actively forecast disease outbreaks by early warning systems, and more funding for public health education programs., Conclusion: Vigilant disease and vector surveillance, preventive practice and health promotion programs will likely be significant in addressing the threat of dengue fever in the future. Further efforts are needed to strengthen the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to minimize the health burden of infectious diseases in a changing climate. Results will be critical for policy makers facing the current and future challenges associated with infectious disease prevention and control in China., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2016
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20. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.
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Tong MX, Hansen A, Hanson-Easey S, Cameron S, Xiang J, Liu Q, Sun Y, Weinstein P, Han GS, Williams C, and Bi P
- Subjects
- China epidemiology, Disease Outbreaks, Epidemiological Monitoring, Humans, Population Growth, Public Health, Climate Change, Communicable Diseases epidemiology, Communicable Diseases, Emerging epidemiology, Urbanization
- Abstract
China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.
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- 2015
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21. The impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission: perceptions of CDC health professionals in Shanxi Province, China.
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Wei J, Hansen A, Zhang Y, Li H, Liu Q, Sun Y, Xue S, Zhao S, and Bi P
- Subjects
- Adult, China epidemiology, Communicable Diseases epidemiology, Epidemiological Monitoring, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Young Adult, Climate Change, Communicable Diseases transmission, Government Agencies, Health Personnel psychology, Perception
- Abstract
There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change.
- Published
- 2014
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22. Perception, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change: a survey among CDC health professionals in Shanxi province, China.
- Author
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Wei J, Hansen A, Zhang Y, Li H, Liu Q, Sun Y, and Bi P
- Subjects
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S., China, Humans, Surveys and Questionnaires, United States, Climate Change, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Health Personnel
- Abstract
Background: A better understanding of public perceptions, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change will provide an important foundation for government׳s policy-making, service provider׳s guideline development and the engagement of local communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the perception towards climate change, behavior change, mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the central government among the health professionals in the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China., Methods: In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 CDC health professionals in various levels of CDC in Shanxi Province, China. Descriptive analyses were performed., Results: More than two thirds of the respondents believed that climate change has happened at both global and local levels, and climate change would lead to adverse impacts to human beings. Most respondents (74.8%) indicated the emission of greenhouse gases was the cause of climate change, however there was a lack of knowledge about greenhouse gases and their sources. Media was the main source from which respondents obtained the information about climate change. A majority of respondents showed that they were willing to change behavior, but their actions were limited. In terms of mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the Chinese Government, respondents׳ perception showed inconsistency between strategies and relevant actions. Moreover, although the majority of respondents believed some strategies and measures were extremely important to address climate change, they were still concerned about economic development, energy security, and local environmental protection., Conclusion: There are gaps between perceptions and actions towards climate change among these health professionals. Further efforts need to be made to raise the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to address climate change in the context of the proposed policies with local sustainable development., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2014
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23. Association between high temperature and mortality in metropolitan areas of four cities in various climatic zones in China: a time-series study.
- Author
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Li Y, Cheng Y, Cui G, Peng C, Xu Y, Wang Y, Liu Y, Liu J, Li C, Wu Z, Bi P, and Jin Y
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Child, Child, Preschool, China epidemiology, Cities, Endocrine System Diseases etiology, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Metabolic Diseases etiology, Middle Aged, Respiratory Tract Diseases etiology, Sex Factors, Young Adult, Air Pollutants toxicity, Climate Change, Endocrine System Diseases mortality, Hot Temperature adverse effects, Metabolic Diseases mortality, Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality
- Abstract
Background: Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat., Methods: A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution., Results: The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations., Conclusions: Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics.
- Published
- 2014
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24. Heat waves and climate change: applying the health belief model to identify predictors of risk perception and adaptive behaviours in adelaide, australia.
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Akompab DA, Bi P, Williams S, Grant J, Walker IA, and Augoustinos M
- Subjects
- Adult, Aged, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Logistic Models, Male, Middle Aged, Psychological Theory, Risk, Socioeconomic Factors, South Australia, Surveys and Questionnaires, Adaptation, Psychological physiology, Climate Change, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Hot Temperature adverse effects
- Abstract
Heat waves are considered a health risk and they are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and duration as a consequence of climate change. The effects of heat waves on human health could be reduced if individuals recognise the risks and adopt healthy behaviours during a heat wave. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of risk perception using a heat wave scenario and identify the constructs of the health belief model that could predict adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. A cross-sectional study was conducted during the summer of 2012 among a sample of persons aged between 30 to 69 years in Adelaide. Participants' perceptions were assessed using the health belief model as a conceptual frame. Their knowledge about heat waves and adaptive behaviours during heat waves was also assessed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the predictors of risk perception to a heat wave scenario and adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Of the 267 participants, about half (50.9%) had a high risk perception to heat waves while 82.8% had good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Multivariate models found that age was a significant predictor of risk perception. In addition, participants who were married (OR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07-0.62), who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.17-0.94) and without a fan (OR = 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11-0.79) were less likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. Those who were living with others (OR = 2.87; 95% CI, 1.19-6.90) were more likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. On the other hand, participants with a high perceived benefit (OR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.00-4.58), a high "cues to action" (OR = 3.71; 95% CI, 1.63-8.43), who had additional training or education after high school (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.25-5.58) and who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.07-6.56) were more likely to have good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. The health belief model could be useful to guide the design and implementation of interventions to promote adaptive behaviours during heat waves.
- Published
- 2013
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25. Awareness of and attitudes towards heat waves within the context of climate change among a cohort of residents in Adelaide, Australia.
- Author
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Akompab DA, Bi P, Williams S, Grant J, Walker IA, and Augoustinos M
- Subjects
- Adult, Aged, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Seasons, South Australia, Surveys and Questionnaires, Attitude, Climate Change, Hot Temperature
- Abstract
Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%), radio (71.2%), newspapers (45.3%) were the main sources from which respondents received information about heat waves. The majority of the respondents (73.0%) followed news about heat waves very or somewhat closely. About 26.6% of the respondents were extremely or very concerned about the effects of heat waves on them personally. The main issues that were of personal concern for respondents during a heat wave were their personal comfort (60.7%), their garden (48.7%), and sleeping well (47.6%). Overall, respondents were more concerned about the impacts of heat waves to the society than on themselves. There was a significant association between gender (χ² = 21.2, df = 3, p = 0.000), gross annual household income (p = 0.03) and concern for the societal effects of heat waves. Less than half (43.2%) of the respondents believed that heat waves will extremely or very likely increase in Adelaide according to climate projections. Nearly half (49.3%) believed that the effects of heat waves were already being felt in Adelaide. These findings may inform the reframing and communication strategies for heat waves in Adelaide in the context of climate change.
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- 2012
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26. Projected burden of disease for Salmonella infection due to increased temperature in Australian temperate and subtropical regions.
- Author
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Zhang Y, Bi P, and Hiller JE
- Subjects
- Absenteeism, Australia epidemiology, Disabled Persons statistics & numerical data, Forecasting, Health Policy, Humans, Public Health, Climate Change, Salmonella Infections epidemiology
- Abstract
Objective: This study aimed to project the future disability burden of Salmonella infection associated with increased temperature in future in temperate and subtropical regions of Australia in order to provide recommendations for public health policy to respond to climate change., Methods: Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of the burden of disease in this study. Regions in temperate and subtropical Australia were selected for this study. Future temperature change scenarios in the study were based on Australian projections, developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2000 were calculated as the baseline data. YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2030 and 2050 under future temperature change scenarios were projected based on the quantitative relationship between temperature and disease examined in previously published regression models. Future demographic change was also considered in this analysis., Results: Compared with the YLDs in 2000, increasing temperature and demographic changes may lead to a 9%-48% increase in the YLDs for Salmonella infection by 2030 and a 31%-87% increase by 2050 in the temperate region, and a 51%-100% increase by 2030 and an 87%-143% increase by 2050 in the subtropical region, if other factors remain constant., Conclusion: Temperature-related health burden of Salmonella infection in Australia may increase in the future due to change in climate and demography in the absence of effective public health interventions. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2012
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27. The impact of summer temperatures and heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Perth, Australia 1994-2008.
- Author
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Williams S, Nitschke M, Weinstein P, Pisaniello DL, Parton KA, and Bi P
- Subjects
- Air Pollutants, Emergency Service, Hospital statistics & numerical data, Hospitalization statistics & numerical data, Hot Temperature, Humans, Morbidity, Public Health, Seasons, Western Australia epidemiology, Climate Change, Extreme Heat, Mortality trends
- Abstract
Climate change projections have drawn attention to the risks of extreme heat and the importance of public health interventions to minimise the impact. The city of Perth, Western Australia, frequently experiences hot summer conditions, with recent summers showing above average temperatures. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, mortality, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions data were acquired for Perth for the period 1994 to 2008. Using an observed/expected analysis, the temperature thresholds for mortality were estimated at 34-36°C (maximum) and 20°C (minimum). Generalised estimating equations (GEEs) were used to estimate the percentage increase in mortality and morbidity outcomes with a 10°C increment in temperature, with adjustment for air pollutants. Effect estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). The health impact of heatwave days (three or more days of ≥35°C) was also investigated. A 9.8% increase in daily mortality (IRR 1.098; 95%CI: 1.007-1.196) was associated with a 10°C increase in maximum temperature above threshold. Total ED presentations increased by 4.4% (IRR 1.044; 95%CI: 1.033-1.054) and renal-related ED presentations by 10.2% (IRR 1.102; 95%CI: 1.071-1.135) per 10°C increase in maximum temperature. Heatwave days were associated with increases in daily mortality and ED presentations, while total hospital admissions were decreased on heatwave days. Public health interventions will be increasingly important to minimise the adverse health impacts of hot weather in Perth, particularly if the recent trend of rising average temperatures and more hot days continues as projected., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2012
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28. Projected Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) for bacillary dysentery related to increased temperature in temperate and subtropical cities of China.
- Author
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Zhang Y, Bi P, Sun Y, and Hiller JE
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, China epidemiology, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Population Growth, Temperature, Time, Tropical Climate, Young Adult, Absenteeism, Climate Change, Dysentery, Bacillary epidemiology
- Abstract
The impact of climate change on enteric infection has been a concern in recent years. This study aims to project disability burdens of bacillary dysentery (BD) associated with increasing temperature in different climatic zones in China. Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of burden of bacillary dysentery in this study. A temperate city in northern China and a subtropical city in southern China were selected as the study areas. The quantitative relationship between temperature and the number of cases in each city was base on the regression models developed in our previous studies. YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2000 were used as the baseline data. Projection of YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2020 and 2050 under future temperature scenarios were conducted. Demographic changes over the next 20 to 50 years in study cities were considered in the projections. Under the temperature scenarios alone, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may increase by up to 80% by 2020 and 174% by 2050 in the temperate city and up to 75% increase in the YLDs by 2020 and a 147% increase by 2050 in the tropical city. Considering potential changes in both temperature and population size and structure, if other factors remain constant, compared with the YLDs observed in 2000, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may double by 2020 and triple by 2050 in both the temperate and subtropical cities in China. The temperature-related health burden of enteric infection in China may greatly increase in the future if there is no effective intervention. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an earlier stage to prevent and reduce the impact of infectious disease associated with climate change.
- Published
- 2012
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29. Heat and health in Adelaide, South Australia: assessment of heat thresholds and temperature relationships.
- Author
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Williams S, Nitschke M, Sullivan T, Tucker GR, Weinstein P, Pisaniello DL, Parton KA, and Bi P
- Subjects
- Humans, Ozone analysis, Particulate Matter analysis, Patient Admission statistics & numerical data, Seasons, South Australia epidemiology, Air Pollutants analysis, Climate Change, Hot Temperature, Morbidity, Mortality
- Abstract
Background: Climate change projections have highlighted the need for public health planning for extreme heat. In Adelaide, South Australia, hot weather is characteristic of summer and heatwaves can have a significant health burden. This study examines the heat thresholds and temperature relationships for mortality and morbidity outcomes in Adelaide., Methods: Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily mortality, ambulance call-outs, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions were obtained for Adelaide, between 1993 and 2009. Heat thresholds for health outcomes were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate the percentage increase in mortality and morbidity outcomes above the threshold temperatures, with adjustment for the effects of ozone (O(3)) and particulate matter<10 μm in mass median aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)). Effect estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRRs)., Results: Heat-related mortality and morbidity become apparent above maximum and minimum temperature thresholds of 30 °C and 16 °C for mortality; 26 °C and 18 °C for ambulance call-outs; and 34 °C and 22 °C for heat-related ED presentations. Most health outcomes showed a positive relationship with daily temperatures over thresholds. When adjusted for air pollutants, a 10 °C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a 4.9% increase in daily ambulance call-outs (IRR 1.049; 95% CI 1.027-1.072), and a 3.4% increase in mental health related hospital admissions (IRR 1.034; 95% CI 1.009-1.059) for the all-age population. Heat-related ED presentations increased over 6-fold per 10 °C increase in maximum temperature. Daily temperatures were also associated with all-cause and mental health related ED presentations. Associations between temperature over thresholds and daily mortality and renal hospital admissions were not significant when adjusted for ozone and PM(10); however at extreme temperatures mortality increased significantly with increasing heat duration., Conclusions: Heat-attributable mortality and morbidity are associated with elevated summer temperatures in Adelaide, particularly ambulance call-outs, mental health and heat-related illness., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2012
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30. Older persons and heat-susceptibility: the role of health promotion in a changing climate.
- Author
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Hansen A, Bi P, Nitschke M, Pisaniello D, Newbury J, and Kitson A
- Subjects
- Aged, Australia epidemiology, Conservation of Natural Resources, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Heat Stress Disorders physiopathology, Hot Temperature, Humans, Risk Factors, Climate Change, Health Promotion organization & administration, Heat Stress Disorders prevention & control
- Abstract
Issue Addressed: Many studies world wide have provided evidence that older persons are a sub-population at increased risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. This article gives an overview of the current state of knowledge of risk factors and provides commentary on the role of health promotion in the prevention of a climate change-related increase in elderly heat casualties., Methods: A search of peer-reviewed medical and epidemiological literature and community health websites was conducted in order to gain an in-depth understanding of heat-susceptibility in the elderly and preventive strategies. Key search words included: elderly, aged, older, heat, thermoregulation, heat wave, mortality, heat effects, dehydration, heat-related illness, adaptation, adaptive capacity., Results: The reasons underlying reduced heat tolerance in this group are multi-faceted, comprising physiological, social and behavioural limitations, with comorbidities and polypharmacy being contributing factors. Additionally, some older persons may be unable or reluctant to undertake adaptations necessary to maintain thermal homeostasis due to diminished awareness of the heat, lowered thirst sensation, mobility or cognitive impairments, a lowered perception of risk, or economic concerns., Conclusion: With older persons in poor health being particularly vulnerable to heat, preventive messages need to promote protective behaviours and help build resilience as temperatures rise.
- Published
- 2011
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31. Preparing health services for climate change in Australia.
- Author
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Blashki G, Armstrong G, Berry HL, Weaver HJ, Hanna EG, Bi P, Harley D, and Spickett JT
- Subjects
- Australia, Health Policy, Humans, Public Health, Climate Change, Health Planning organization & administration
- Abstract
Although the implications of climate change for public health continue to be elucidated, we still require much work to guide the development of a comprehensive strategy to underpin the adaptation of the health system. Adaptation will be an evolving process as impacts emerge. The authors aim is to focus on the responses of the Australian health system to health risks from climate change, and in particular how best to prepare health services for predicted health risks from heat waves, bushfires, infectious diseases, diminished air quality, and the mental health impacts of climate change. In addition, the authors aim to provide some general principles for health system adaptation to climate change that may be applicable beyond the Australian setting. They present some guiding principles for preparing health systems and also overview some specific preparatory activities in relation to personnel, infrastructure, and coordination. Increases in extreme weather-related events superimposed on health effects arising from a gradually changing climate will place additional burdens on the health system and challenge existing capacity. Key characteristics of a climate change-prepared health system are that it should be flexible, strategically allocated, and robust. Long-term planning will also require close collaboration with the nonhealth sectors as part of a nationwide adaptive response.
- Published
- 2011
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32. The effects of extreme heat on human mortality and morbidity in Australia: implications for public health.
- Author
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Bi P, Williams S, Loughnan M, Lloyd G, Hansen A, Kjellstrom T, Dear K, and Saniotis A
- Subjects
- Australia epidemiology, Environmental Exposure adverse effects, Environmental Exposure statistics & numerical data, Humans, Climate Change mortality, Extreme Heat adverse effects, Morbidity, Public Health
- Abstract
Most regions of Australia are exposed to hot summers and regular extreme heat events; and numerous studies have associated high ambient temperatures with adverse health outcomes in Australian cities. Extreme environmental heat can trigger the onset of acute conditions, including heat stroke and dehydration, as well as exacerbate a range of underlying illnesses. Consequently, in the absence of adaptation, the associated mortality and morbidity are expected to increase in a warming climate, particularly within the vulnerable populations of the elderly, children, those with chronic diseases, and people engaged in physical labour in noncooled environments. There is a need for further research to address the evidence needs of public health agencies in Australia. Building resilience to extreme heat events, especially for the most vulnerable groups, is a priority. Public health professionals and executives need to be aware of the very real and urgent need to act now.
- Published
- 2011
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33. Climate change and infectious diseases in Australia: future prospects, adaptation options, and research priorities.
- Author
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Harley D, Bi P, Hall G, Swaminathan A, Tong S, and Williams C
- Subjects
- Australia epidemiology, Biomedical Research, Forecasting, Health Policy, Health Priorities, Humans, Climate Change, Communicable Diseases epidemiology
- Abstract
Climate change will have significant and diverse impacts on human health. These impacts will include changes in infectious disease incidence. In this article, the authors review the current situation and potential future climate change impacts for respiratory, diarrheal, and vector-borne diseases in Australia. Based on this review, the authors suggest adaptive strategies within the health sector and also recommend future research priorities.
- Published
- 2011
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34. Using the excess heat factor to indicate heatwave-related urinary disease: a case study in Adelaide, South Australia
- Author
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Borg, Matthew, Nitschke, Monika, Williams, Susan, McDonald, Stephen, Nairn, John, and Bi, Peng
- Published
- 2019
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35. Heat adaptation and place: experiences in South Australian rural communities
- Author
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Williams, Susan, Hanson-Easey, Scott, Robinson, Guy, Pisaniello, Dino, Newbury, Jonathan, Saniotis, Arthur, and Bi, Peng
- Published
- 2017
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36. Association between high temperature and work-related injuries in Adelaide, South Australia, 2001-2010
- Author
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Xiang, Jianjun, Bi, Peng, Pisaniello, Dino, Hansen, Alana, and Sullivan, Thomas
- Published
- 2014
37. Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high ambient temperature across climate zones: methodological framework with a case study.
- Author
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Liu, Jingwen, Hansen, Alana, Varghese, Blesson M, Dear, Keith, Tong, Michael, Prescott, Vanessa, Dolar, Vergil, Gourley, Michelle, Driscoll, Timothy, Zhang, Ying, Morgan, Geoffrey, Capon, Anthony, and Bi, Peng
- Subjects
HIGH temperatures ,ZONE melting ,RISK exposure ,CLIMATE change - Abstract
Background With high temperature becoming an increasing health risk due to a changing climate, it is important to quantify the scale of the problem. However, estimating the burden of disease (BoD) attributable to high temperature can be challenging due to differences in risk patterns across geographical regions and data accessibility issues. Methods We present a methodological framework that uses Köppen–Geiger climate zones to refine exposure levels and quantifies the difference between the burden observed due to high temperatures and what would have been observed if the population had been exposed to the theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution (TMRED). Our proposed method aligned with the Australian Burden of Disease Study and included two parts: (i) estimation of the population attributable fractions (PAF); and then (ii) estimation of the BoD attributable to high temperature. We use suicide and self-inflicted injuries in Australia as an example, with most frequent temperatures (MFTs) as the minimum risk exposure threshold (TMRED). Results Our proposed framework to estimate the attributable BoD accounts for the importance of geographical variations of risk estimates between climate zones, and can be modified and adapted to other diseases and contexts that may be affected by high temperatures. Conclusions As the heat-related BoD may continue to increase in the future, this method is useful in estimating burdens across climate zones. This work may have important implications for preventive health measures, by enhancing the reproducibility and transparency of BoD research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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38. Climate Variability and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Transmission in Northeastern China
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Zhang, Wen-Yi, Guo, Wei-Dong, Fang, Li-Qun, Li, Chang-Ping, Bi, Peng, Glass, Gregory E., Jiang, Jia-Fu, Sun, Shan-Hua, Qian, Quan, Liu, Wei, Yan, Lei, Yang, Hong, Tong, Shi-Lu, and Cao, Wu-Chun
- Published
- 2010
39. Climate Change and Disability–Adjusted Life Years
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Zhang, Ying, Bi, Peng, and Hiller, Janet E.
- Published
- 2007
40. Engaging stakeholders in an adaptation process: governance and institutional arrangements in heat-health policy development in Adelaide, Australia
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Akompab, Derick A., Bi, Peng, Williams, Susan, Saniotis, Arthur, Walker, Iain A., and Augoustinos, Martha
- Published
- 2013
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41. Southern Oscillation Index and Transmission of the Barmah Forest Virus Infection in Queensland, Australia
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Bi, Peng, Tong, Shilu, Donald, Ken, Parton, Kevin, and Hobbs, Jack
- Published
- 2000
42. Using ecological variables to predict Ross River virus disease incidence in South Australia.
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Liu, Jingwen, Hansen, Alana, Cameron, Scott, Williams, Craig, Fricker, Stephen, and Bi, Peng
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LYME disease ,DISEASE incidence ,VIRUS diseases ,BOX-Jenkins forecasting ,DISEASE clusters ,PUBLIC health - Abstract
Background Ross River virus (RRV) disease is Australia's most widespread vector-borne disease causing significant public health concern. The aim of this study was to identify the ecological covariates of RRV risk and to develop epidemic forecasting models in a disease hotspot region of South Australia. Methods Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to predict the incidence of RRV disease in the Riverland region of South Australia, an area known to have a high incidence of the disease. The model was developed using data from January 2000 to December 2012 then validated using disease notification data on reported cases for the following year. Results Monthly numbers of the mosquito Culex annulirostris (β=0.033, p<0.001) and total rainfall (β=0.263, p=0.002) were significant predictors of RRV transmission in the study region. The forecasted RRV incidence in the predictive model was generally consistent with the actual number of cases in the study area. Conclusions A predictive model has been shown to be useful in forecasting the occurrence of RRV disease, with increased vector populations and rainfall being important factors associated with transmission. This approach may be useful in a public health context by providing early warning of vector-borne diseases in other settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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43. The adaptive capacity of migrants to climate change in Australia
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Saniotis Arthur, Benson Jill, Han Gil-Soo, Tan Yan, Mwanri Lillian, Hansen Alana, Wilson Leigh, Bi Peng, Smyth Val, and Nitschke Monika
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education.field_of_study ,Adaptive capacity ,Geography ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Multiculturalism ,Immigration ,Population ,Development economics ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Climate change ,education ,General Environmental Science ,media_common - Abstract
Background: In Australia, increasing immigration has contributed to a highly multicultural society where more than 25% of the population were born overseas. In accordance with projections, record-b...
- Published
- 2013
44. Heatwaves differentially affect risk of Salmonella serotypes.
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Milazzo, Adriana, Giles, Lynne C., Zhang, Ying, Koehler, Ann P., Hiller, Janet E., and Bi, Peng
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ANIMAL experimentation ,CHAOS theory ,HEAT ,HOSPITAL care ,HOSPITAL emergency services ,REGRESSION analysis ,SALMONELLA ,SEASONS ,TEMPERATURE ,PHENOMENOLOGICAL biology ,SALMONELLA diseases ,SEROTYPES ,PHYSIOLOGY - Abstract
Objectives: Given increasing frequency of heatwaves and growing public health concerns associated with foodborne disease, we examined the relationship between heatwaves and salmonellosis in Adelaide, Australia.Methods: Poisson regression analysis with Generalised Estimating Equations was used to estimate the effect of heatwaves and the impact of intensity, duration and timing on salmonellosis and specific serotypes notified from 1990 to 2012. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature during heatwaves on Salmonella cases.Results: Salmonella typhimurium PT135 notifications were sensitive to the effects of heatwaves with a twofold (IRR 2.08, 95% CI 1.14-3.79) increase in cases relative to non-heatwave days. Heatwave intensity had a significant effect on daily counts of overall salmonellosis with a 34% increase in risk of infection (IRR 1.34, 95% CI 1.01-1.78) at >41 °C. The effects of temperature during heatwaves on Salmonella cases and serotypes were found at lags of up to 14 days.Conclusion: This study confirms heatwaves have a significant effect on Salmonella cases, and for the first time, identifies its impact on specific serotypes and phage types. These findings will contribute to the understanding of the impact of heatwaves on salmonellosis and provide insights that could mitigate their impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2016
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45. Workers' perceptions of climate change related extreme heat exposure in South Australia: a cross-sectional survey.
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Jianjun Xiang, Hansen, Alana, Pisaniello, Dino, Peng Bi, Xiang, Jianjun, and Bi, Peng
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SENSORY perception ,CLIMATE change ,CROSS-sectional method ,MULTIVARIATE analysis ,BIVARIATE analysis ,REGRESSION analysis ,INDUSTRIAL hygiene laws ,WORK environment & psychology ,WORK environment laws ,OCCUPATIONAL hazard laws ,AGE distribution ,PHYSIOLOGICAL effects of heat ,HEAT ,INDUSTRIAL hygiene ,SAFETY ,WORK environment ,OCCUPATIONAL hazards ,ENVIRONMENTAL exposure ,PHENOMENOLOGICAL biology ,PSYCHOLOGY ,PREVENTION - Abstract
Background: Occupational exposure to extreme heat without sufficient protection may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise economic productivity. With predictions of more frequent and intense bouts of hot weather, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers' health and safety. This study aims to investigate workers' perceptions and behavioural responses towards extreme heat exposure in a warming climate.Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2012 in South Australia among selected outdoor industries. Workers' heat risk perceptions were measured in the following five aspects: concerns about heat exposure, attitudes towards more training, policy and guideline support, the adjustment of work habits, and degree of satisfaction of current preventive measures. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors significantly associated with workers' heat perceptions.Results: A total of 749 respondents participated in this survey, with a response rate of 50.9 %. A little more than half (51.2 %) of respondents were moderately or very much concerned about workplace heat exposure. Factors associated with workers' heat concerns included age, undertaking very physically demanding work, and the use of personal protective equipment, heat illness history, and injury experience during hot weather. Less than half (43.4 %) of the respondents had received heat-related training. Workers aged 25-54 years and those with previous heat-related illness/injury history showed more supportive attitudes towards heat-related training. The provision of cool drinking water was the most common heat prevention measure. A little more than half (51.4 %) of respondents were satisfied with the current heat prevention measures. About two-thirds (63.8 %) of respondents agreed that there should be more heat-related regulations and guidelines for working during very hot weather. More than two-thirds (68.8 %) of the respondents were willing to adjust their current work habits to adapt to the likely increasing extreme heat, especially those with previous heat illness experience.Conclusions: The findings suggest a need to strengthen workers' heat risk awareness and refine current heat prevention strategies in a warming climate. Further heat educational programmes and training should focus on those undertaking physically demanding work outdoors, in particular young workers and those over 55 years with low education levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2016
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46. Speaking of Climate Change: A Discursive Analysis of Lay Understandings.
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Hanson-Easey, Scott, Williams, Susan, Hansen, Alana, Fogarty, Kathryn, and Bi, Peng
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CLIMATE change & society ,PUBLIC understanding of science ,RISK communication ,DISCOURSE analysis ,CLIMATE change in mass media ,CLIMATE change & politics ,RHETORIC - Abstract
Representations of climate change have been a recurrent motif in media and political domains spanning over 20 years. However, relatively scant scholarly work has addressed how laypeople make sense of this phenomenon in talk. The current study, employing a discursive approach, demonstrates how the salience of climate change, as a social issue, is accounted for and made contingent on social, financial, and political factors. Moreover, the issue of climate change was accounted for as an intergenerational issue, and moral considerations were mobilized in arguing for why the issue should be provided increased attention. We argue that science communication research could fruitfully examine the discursive building blocks underpinning taken-for-granted ways of talking about climate change, informing the design of alternative discourses. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
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- 2015
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47. The Effect of Meteorological Variables on the Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Four Major Cities of Shanxi Province, China: A Time Series Data Analysis (2009-2013).
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Wei, Junni, Hansen, Alana, Liu, Qiyong, Sun, Yehuan, Weinstein, Phil, and Bi, Peng
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FOOT & mouth disease ,PUBLIC health ,MOVING average process ,CLIMATE change - Abstract
Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
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48. The impact of heatwaves on workers׳ health and safety in Adelaide, South Australia.
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Xiang, Jianjun, Bi, Peng, Pisaniello, Dino, and Hansen, Alana
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TIME series analysis , *GENERALIZED estimating equations , *HEAT waves (Meteorology) , *TEAMS in the workplace - Abstract
This study aims to investigate the impact of heatwaves on worker׳s health and safety; to identify workers at higher risk of prevalent illnesses and injuries due to heatwaves; and to provide evidence for policy-makers and service providers. South Australian workers׳ compensation claims data for 2001–2010 were transformed into time series format, merged with meteorological data and analysed using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. For total injury claims there was no significant difference detected between heatwave and non-heatwave periods. However, for outdoor industries, daily claims increased significantly by 6.2% during heatwaves. Over-represented in hot weather were male labourers and tradespersons aged ≥55 years, and those employed in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ and ‘electricity, gas and water’. Occupational burns, wounds, lacerations, and amputations as well as heat illnesses were significantly associated with heatwaves. Similarly, moving objects, contact with chemicals, and injuries related to environmental factors increased significantly during heatwaves, especially among middle-aged and older male workers. With the predicted increase of extremely hot weather, there is a need for relevant adaptation and prevention measures at both practice and policy levels for vulnerable work groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
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49. Meteorological variables and malaria in a Chinese temperate city: A twenty-year time-series data analysis
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Zhang, Ying, Bi, Peng, and Hiller, Janet E.
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SEASONAL variations of diseases , *CLIMATE change , *MALARIA , *TEMPERATE climate , *CHINESE people , *DIURNAL variations in meteorology , *PHYSIOLOGICAL effects of temperature , *TIME series analysis , *DATA analysis , *DISEASES - Abstract
Abstract: Objectives: This study aimed to examine the impact of climate variation on malaria in a temperate region of China. Methods: A 20-year historical time-series data analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between meteorological variables, including maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, humidity, and cases of malaria in Jinan, a temperate city in northern China. Data were retrieved from 1959 and 1979 and analyzed on a monthly basis. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify time lag values between each meteorological variable and the number of malaria cases. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and malaria cases. Results: The SARIMA models indicate that a 1°C rise in maximum temperature may be related to a 7.7% to 12.7% increase and a 1°C rise in minimum temperature may result in approximately 11.8% to 15.8% increase in the number of malaria cases. A clear association between malaria and other selected weather variables, including rainfall and humidity, has not been detected in this study. Conclusions: Temperature could play an important role in the transmission of malaria in temperate regions of China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2010
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50. Climate variations and Salmonella infection in Australian subtropical and tropical regions
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Zhang, Ying, Bi, Peng, and Hiller, Janet E.
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- *
CLIMATE change , *SALMONELLA diseases , *REGRESSION analysis , *POISSON processes , *STATISTICAL correlation - Abstract
Abstract: This study aims to quantify the relationship between climate variations and cases of Salmonella infection in subtropical and tropical areas in Australia. Brisbane in a subtropical area and Townsville in a tropical area of Queensland were selected as the study regions. Local meteorological variables and notified cases of Salmonella infection from January 1990 to July 2005 were provided by local authorities. Spearman correlation and time-series adjusted Poisson regression were applied controlling for autoregression, lag effects, seasonal variation and long-term trend. Natural cubic spline and Hockey Stick model were used to estimate a potential threshold temperature. Spearman correlation indicated that maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity at 9am and 3pm, and rainfall were all positively correlated with the number of cases in both Brisbane and Townsville, with the lag values of the effects up to 2weeks in Brisbane and 2months in Townsville. Only temperature and rainfall were significantly included in the regression models in both regions. The models suggested that a potential 1°C rise in maximum or minimum temperature may cause a very similar increase in the number of cases in the two regions. No threshold for the effect of maximum or minimum temperature on Salmonella infection was detected in either region. The association between climate variations and Salmonella infection could be very similar in subtropical and tropical regions in Australia. Temperature and rainfall may be used as key meteorological predictors for the number of cases in both regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
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