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Critical thermal limits (CTLs) gauge the physiological impact of temperature on survival or critical biological function, aiding predictions of species range shifts and climatic resilience. Two recent Drosophila species studies, using similar approaches to determine temperatures that induce sterility (thermal fertility limits [TFLs]), reveal that TFLs are often lower than CTLs and that TFLs better predict both current species distributions and extinction probability. Moreover, many studies show fertility is more sensitive at less extreme temperatures than survival (thermal sensitivity of fertility [TSF]). These results present a more pessimistic outlook on the consequences of climate change. However, unlike CTLs, TFL data are limited to Drosophila, and variability in TSF methods poses challenges in predicting species responses to increasing temperature. To address these data and methodological gaps, we propose 3 standardized approaches for assessing thermal impacts on fertility. We focus on adult obligate sexual terrestrial invertebrates but also provide modifications for other animal groups and life-history stages. We first outline a "gold-standard" protocol for determining TFLs, focussing on the effects of short-term heat shocks and simulating more frequent extreme heat events predicted by climate models. As this approach may be difficult to apply to some organisms, we then provide a standardized TSF protocol. Finally, we provide a framework to quantify fertility loss in response to extreme heat events in nature, given the limitations in laboratory approaches. Applying these standardized approaches across many taxa, similar to CTLs, will allow robust tests of the impact of fertility loss on species responses to increasing temperatures., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Evolutionary Biology.)

Adaptation in new environments depends on the amount of genetic variation available for evolution, and the efficacy by which natural selection discriminates among this variation. However, whether some ecological factors reveal more genetic variation, or impose stronger selection pressures than others, is typically not known. Here, we apply the enzyme kinetic theory to show that rising global temperatures are predicted to intensify natural selection throughout the genome by increasing the effects of DNA sequence variation on protein stability. We test this prediction by (i) estimating temperature-dependent fitness effects of induced mutations in seed beetles adapted to ancestral or elevated temperature, and (ii) calculate 100 paired selection estimates on mutations in benign versus stressful environments from unicellular and multicellular organisms. Environmental stress per se did not increase mean selection on de novo mutation, suggesting that the cost of adaptation does not generally increase in new ecological settings to which the organism is maladapted. However, elevated temperature increased the mean strength of selection on genome-wide polymorphism, signified by increases in both mutation load and mutational variance in fitness. These results have important implications for genetic diversity gradients and the rate and repeatability of evolution under climate change.

Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate the effects of climate change, it is important to understand species' responses to increasing temperatures. This has often been done by studying survival or activity at temperature extremes. Before such extremes are reached, however, effects on fertility may already be apparent.Sex differences in the thermal sensitivity of fertility (TSF) could impact species persistence under climate warming because female fertility is typically more limiting to population growth than male fertility. However, little is known about sex differences in TSF.Here we first demonstrate that the mating system can strongly influence TSF using the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus. We exposed populations carrying artificially induced mutations to two generations of short‐term experimental evolution under alternative mating systems, manipulating the opportunity for natural and sexual selection on the mutations. We then measured TSF in males and females subjected to juvenile or adult heat stress.Populations kept under natural and sexual selection had higher fitness, but similar TSF, compared to control populations kept under relaxed selection. However, females had higher TSF than males, and strikingly, this sex difference had increased over only two generations in populations evolving under sexual selection.We hypothesized that an increase in male‐induced harm to females during mating had played a central role in driving this evolved sex difference, and indeed, remating under conditions limiting male harassment of females reduced both male and female TSF. Moreover, we show that manipulation of mating system parameters in C. maculatus generates intraspecific variation in the sex difference in TSF equal to that found among a diverse set of studies on insects.Our study provides a causal link between the mating system and TSF. Sexual conflict, (re)mating rates and genetic responses to sexual selection differ among ecological settings, mating systems and species. Our study therefore also provides mechanistic understanding for the variability in previously reported TSFs which can inform future experimental assays and predictions of species responses to climate warming. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation in new environments depends on the amount of genetic variation available for evolution, and the efficacy by which natural selection discriminates among this variation. However, whether some ecological factors reveal more genetic variation, or impose stronger selection pressures than others, is typically not known. Here, we apply the enzyme kinetic theory to show that rising global temperatures are predicted to intensify natural selection throughout the genome by increasing the effects of DNA sequence variation on protein stability. We test this prediction by (i) estimating temperature-dependent fitness effects of induced mutations in seed beetles adapted to ancestral or elevated temperature, and (ii) calculate 100 paired selection estimates on mutations in benign versus stressful environments from unicellular and multicellular organisms. Environmental stress per se did not increase mean selection on de novo mutation, suggesting that the cost of adaptation does not generally increase in new ecological settings to which the organism is maladapted. However, elevated temperature increased the mean strength of selection on genome-wide polymorphism, signified by increases in both mutation load and mutational variance in fitness. These results have important implications for genetic diversity gradients and the rate and repeatability of evolution under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]