5 results on '"Barbero, R."'
Search Results
2. Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin
- Author
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Ruffault, J, Curt, T, Moron, V, Trigo, RM, Mouillot, F, Koutsias, N, Pimont, F, Martin-StPaul, NK, Barbero, R, Dupuy, J-L, Russo, A, Belhadj-Kheder, C, Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Aix Marseille Université (AMU), Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), University of Patras, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Université de la Manouba [Tunisie] (UMA), FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project IMPECAF (PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017), ANR-11-IDEX-0001,Amidex,INITIATIVE D'EXCELLENCE AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITE(2011), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and University of Patras [Patras]
- Subjects
Heat induced ,Ecology ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Fire ecology ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,lcsh:R ,Natural hazards ,lcsh:Medicine ,Climate change ,15. Life on land ,010501 environmental sciences ,Future climate ,01 natural sciences ,Mediterranean Basin ,Article ,Fire weather ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,lcsh:Q ,lcsh:Science ,Climate-change impacts ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
International audience; Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin. Wildfire is a complex phenomenon that occurs when three conditions are met: available fuel, an ignition source (due to lightning or human activities) and weather conditions conducive to fires (fire weather) 1. Climate and weather are important drivers of wildfire activity across a range of timescales 2-5 , and, consequently, current and potential future climate-induced changes in wildfire activity might threaten ecosystems and human well-being 6. In most Euro-Mediterranean countries, wildfire activity has been declining owing to management and suppression measures undertaken since the 1980s 7. However, some recent extreme wildfire events, including those that occurred in 2016 in France 8 , 2017 in Spain and Portugal 9 and 2018 in Greece 10 have highlighted the limits of wildfire suppression capabilities under exceptional fire-weather conditions. Furthermore, studies show that wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin due to climate change 11,12. However, how the combinations of climate and weather conditions that promote the largest wildfires will respond to climate change remain largely unknown. Climate and weather are both drivers of wildfire activity. Soil moisture deficit over days to months increases fuel aridity and flammability 6,13 while a number of synoptic weather conditions associated to different combinations of short-term and instantaneous meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) influence wildfire behaviour 5,14. Most of the largest wildfires occur when these conditions are met 8. For instance, the combination of extreme drought with extreme wind or heatwaves have both been identified as crucial factors in the occurrence of crown wildfires in Mediterranean forests and shrublands 15-17. In this study, we focus on the frequency of current and future weather and climate conditions associated with wildfires in four countries (France, Portugal, Greece, Tunisia) of the Mediterranean basin covering most of its diverse biogeographic and climatic conditions (Supplementary Figs. S1-S3). Building on the insights gained open
- Published
- 2020
3. Temperature‐extreme precipitation scaling: a two‐way causality?
- Author
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Barbero, R., Westra, S., Lenderink, G., and Fowler, H. J.
- Subjects
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CLIMATE change , *ATMOSPHERIC temperature , *METEOROLOGICAL precipitation , *DOWNSCALING (Climatology) , *CLAUSIUS-Clayperon equation - Abstract
ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation events are widely thought to intensify in a warmer atmosphere through the Clausius‐Clapeyron equation. The temperature‐extreme precipitation scaling was proposed to analyse the temperature dependency of short‐duration extreme precipitation and since then, the concept has been widely used in climatology. Bao et al. (2017) suggest that the apparent scaling reflects not only how surface air properties affect extreme precipitation, but also reflects how synoptic conditions and localized cooling due to the storm itself affect the scaling – implying two‐way causality. We address here critical issues of this paper and provide evidence that dew point temperature drives extreme precipitation, with the direction of causality reversed only for the storm's peak intensity. This physical inference may serve as a basis to better quantify scaling rates and to help establish the relationship between extreme precipitation and environmental conditions in the current climate, and thereby provide insights into future changes to precipitation extremes due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Super-Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling of Extreme Hourly Convective Precipitation and Its Relation to Large-Scale Atmospheric Conditions.
- Author
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Lenderink, G., Barbero, R., Loriaux, J. M., and Fowler, H. J.
- Subjects
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CLAUSIUS-Clapeyron relation , *MOISTURE measurement , *HYGROMETRY , *DEW point hygrometers , *METEOROLOGICAL precipitation - Abstract
Present-day precipitation-temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation; for the Netherlands the dependency on surface dewpoint temperature follows 2 times the CC relation (2CC). The authors' hypothesis-as supported by a simple physical argument presented here-is that this 2CC behavior arises from the physics of convective clouds. To further investigate this, the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events are analyzed using surface observations combined with a regional reanalysis. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dewpoint temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dewpoint, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dewpoint temperature range, supporting the theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near-surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dewpoint. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dewpoint temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States.
- Author
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Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J. T., Larkin, N. K., Kolden, C. A., and Stocks, B.
- Subjects
WILDFIRES ,CLIMATE change ,ECOLOGICAL impact ,FOREST fires - Abstract
Very large fires (VLFs) have important implications for communities, ecosystems, air quality and fire suppression expenditures. VLFs over the contiguous US have been strongly linked with meteorological and climatological variability. Building on prior modelling of VLFs (>5000 ha), an ensemble of 17 global climate models were statistically downscaled over the US for climate experiments covering the historic and mid-21st-century periods to estimate potential changes in VLF occurrence arising from anthropogenic climate change. Increased VLF potential was projected across most historically fire-prone regions, with the largest absolute increase in the intermountain West and Northern California. Complementary to modelled increases in VLF potential were changes in the seasonality of atmospheric conditions conducive to VLFs, including an earlier onset across the southern US and more symmetric seasonal extension in the northern regions. These projections provide insights into regional and seasonal distribution of VLF potential under a changing climate, and serve as a basis for future strategic and tactical fire management options. Very large fires (VLFs) have important implications for ecosystems, air quality and fire suppression expenditures. Climate change projections suggest an increase in conditions conducive to VLF potential across most historically fire-prone regions of the US as well as changes in the seasonality of such conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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