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The subject of the study was the effect of teleconnection patterns on cloudiness in Poland in the period 1990–2020. The analysis was conducted based on daily cloudiness values from 34 measurement stations of Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute and monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavia (SCAND) indices from the collection of Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The course of cloudiness values in winter in the multiannual period was analyzed together with its averaged spatial distrubution for the entire winter and for particular winter months. Next, the coefficient of correlation of cloudiness with a given teleconnection pattern index was calculated. The analysis also covered cloudiness in the positive and negative teleconnection phases. The results confirm a variable course and increasing trend of winter cloudiness in Poland. The average cloudiness reached 76% in the studied multiannual period. The correlation coefficient for the North Atlantic Oscillation primarily adopted negative values, and positive for the Scandinavian circulation. The strongest correlation between the teleconnection pattern and cloudiness was observed in February for NAO and in December for SCAND. Cloudiness showed no considerable differences between the positive and negative teleconnection phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results from high-resolution climate change simulations that permit convection and resolve mesoscale orography at 3-km grid spacing over Fenno-Scandinavia using the HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) model. Two global climate models (GCMs) have been dynamically down-scaled for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios and for both near and far future periods in the 21st century. The warmer and moister climate conditions simulated in the GCMs lead to changes in precipitation characteristics. Higher precipitation amounts are simulated in fall, winter and spring, while in summer, precipitation increases in northern Fenno-Scandinavia and decreases in the southern parts of the domain. Both daily and sub-daily intense precipitation over Fenno-Scandinavia become more frequent at the expense of low-intensity events, with most pronounced shifts in summer. In the Scandinavian mountains, pronounced changes occur in the snow climate with a shift in precipitation falling as snow to rain, reduced snow cover and less days with a significant snow depth. HCLIM at 3-km grid spacing exhibits systematically different change responses in several aspects, e.g. a smaller shift from snow to rain in the western part of the Scandinavian mountains and a more consistent decrease in the urban heat island effect by the end of the 21st century. Most importantly, the high-resolution HCLIM shows a significantly stronger increase in summer hourly precipitation extremes compared to HCLIM at the intermediate 12-km grid spacing. In addition, an analysis of the statistical significance of precipitation changes indicates that simulated time periods of at least a couple of decades is recommended to achieve statistically robust results, a matter of important concern when running such high-resolution climate model experiments. The results presented here emphasizes the importance of using "convection-permitting" models to produce reliable climate change information over the Fenno-Scandinavian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Hazard zone methodology: The paper employs a hazard zone methodology, typically used for managing erosion risk to modern infrastructure, to assess and manage the risk to coastal archaeological heritage. • Coastal archaeological heritage at risk: Coastal archaeological heritage in Aotearoa/New Zealand is under threat from coastal erosion, with accelerated risk due to rising sea levels. • Projected sea-level rise impact: The study predicts that a relatively modest 20 cm of sea-level rise, expected by 2040, may put around 8 % (155) of coastal archaeological sites at risk, and a more significant 1 m of sea-level rise could threaten approximately 19 % (356) of sites. • Connection to indigenous communities: The coastal archaeological heritage is closely tied to Māori, the indigenous ancestral communities of Aotearoa/New Zealand. • Adaptive planning pathways: Scenarios are presented to assist stakeholders in assessing heritage risk, providing an opportunity for coastal managers to incorporate heritage considerations into adaptive planning pathways. Coastal archaeological heritage is in danger of being lost to coastal erosion, the risk of which is amplified by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In Aotearoa/New Zealand, coastal archaeological heritage is closely associated with indigenous ancestral communities, but our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in coastal erosion risk for cultural heritage is limited. Coastal erosion hazard zones have typically been implemented to manage erosion risk to modern infrastructure at regional scales. In this study, we applied a hazard zone methodology in the context of coastal archaeological heritage for a selected region of Aotearoa (Te Tai Tokerau/Northland). Historical coastal change analyses reveal that most beaches in the region have been stable or slightly accretionary over the past ∼80 years, but a reversal of this trend is likely under the projected SLR, which is expressed in the coastal erosion hazard zones. Our analyses indicate that ∼8 % (155) of coastal archaeological sites in Te Tai Tokerau/Northland may be at risk of erosion with a relatively modest 20 cm of SLR, which is expected for the region by 2040, and ∼19 % (356) of sites are threatened by 1 m of SLR. Scenarios are presented that should assist a broad range of stakeholders to assess heritage risk and provide an opportunity for coastal managers to include heritage within adaptive planning pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region is significantly affected by rising temperatures and melting ice due to climate change, which provides immense economic opportunities for stakeholders within and outside the Arctic. China and Russia have already put themselves in a good position regarding these opportunities, while the European Union (EU) struggles to find its place in its Northern periphery. A decade ago, the European Commission issued its first policy paper on the Arctic region. The European Commission developed a northern maritime and Arctic policy that will support cooperation in the Euro-Arctic area and give a voice to, and align with, the Nordic countries in the EU. Ten years later, the general contours of a European Arctic strategy have appeared. The EU's Arctic policy has shifted from a more general Arctic approach, towards the Euro-Arctic region, especially towards the Barents Sea. This paper experiments with the idea of an emerging Barents Governance Mosaic (BGM) that consists of various actors and mechanisms involved in interconnected, but non-hierarchical, areas the EU may further develop to improve its role in the Arctic and Arctic governance as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dramatic climate changes are predicted if present-day social practices in affluent societies are not changed, but the challenge is that scarce knowledge exists about how to motivate people for social practice changes in everyday life. Preconditions for neccesary lifestyle changes seem to be in place: subjective well-being (Subjective well-being comprises in this paper; (1) 'hedonic well-being', characterized by materialistic oriented values, such as; material possessions, -pleasure, -comfort and positive emotions, and (2) 'eudaimonic well-being', such as; meaning in life, feelings of vitality, personal flourishing, and social relations.) in Sweden, for example, has stagnated for the well-off middle and upper classes since the 1980s. In some of the most affluent welfare societies in the world, well-off persons have trouble finding meaning in life, eudaimonic well-being (EWB), although levels of hedonic well-being have grown continuously. Apparently economic prosperity is not a key factor providing meaning and personal flourishing. Based on social constructivist theory, this paper reveals leisure time as a important sources providing EWB in terms of shaping frames for existential meaning, personal flourishing and social interaction. However, the topic is complex; social norms and intrinsic contra extrinsic oriented values are discussed in relation to what people see as the good life and a sustainable everyday living (In terms of lowering present personal CO emission levels with 60-90 % in affluent Scandinavian societies, e.g. by working shorter work hours and practice a less consumption based everyday life. See further definitions under Sect. 3.), as time affluence, leisure time, at the expense of material affluence, provides a smaller personal carbon foot print. Finally it is discussed if sustainable living is a means for increased EWB or if it is correlated the other way around, due to the finding that frames facilitating EWB is an important precondition for transition and learning processes in direction towards a more sustainable everyday living. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seabirds are one of the most at-risk groups, with many species in decline. In Scandinavia, seabirds are at a heightened risk of extinction due to accelerated global warming. Norway is home to significant portion of the European Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations, but Norwegian populations have declined significantly during the last decades. In this paper we use biometric data from modern and archaeological F. arctica specimens to investigate patterns in body size variation over time of this iconic species. We aimed to set out a baseline for our archaeological comparison by firstly investigating whether modern subspecies of F. arctica are reflected in the osteological characters and are enough to distinguish subspecies from the bones alone. We then investigated if archaeological remains of F. arctica differ in size from the modern subspecies. Our results show that the subspecies Fratercula arctica naumanni was distinctly larger than the other subspecies. However, Fratercula arctica arctica and Fratercula arctica grabae were difficult to separate based on size. This generally supports ornithological observations. Post-Medieval F. arctica bones from Måsøy were similar to modern F. a. arctica populations. The mid-Holocene remains from Dollsteinhola overlaps with the modern size ranges of F. a. arctica and F. a. grabae but are generally shorter and more robust. Dollsteinhola is located close to the borders of the modern breeding ranges of both F. a. arctica and F. a. grabae. We consider it therefore likely that given the mid-Holocene climatic oscillations, breeding ranges of the two subspecies shifted north or south accordingly. However, this does not explain the different proportions of the Dollsteinhola specimens. Our data provide the first evidence for shifting distributions in ancient Atlantic Puffins and represent the first osteological analysis of Fratercula arctica subspecies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest structural properties largely govern surface fluxes of moisture, energy, and momentum that strongly affect regional climate and hydrology. Forest structural properties are greatly shaped by forest management activities, especially in the Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland). Insight into transient developments in forest structure in response to management intervention is therefore essential to understanding the role of forest management in mitigating regional climate change. The aim of this study is to present a simple grid-based framework – the Fennoscandic Forest State Simulator (F2S2) -- for predicting time-dependent forest structural trajectories in a manner compatible with land models employed in offline or asynchronously coupled climate and hydrological research. F2S2 enables the prescription of future regional forest structure as a function of: i) exogenously defined scenarios of forest harvest intensity; ii) forest management intensity; iii) climate forcing. We demonstrate its application when applied as a stand-alone tool for forecasting three alternative future forest states in Norway that differ with respect to background climate forcing, forest harvest intensity (linked to two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)), and forest management intensity. F2S2 captures impacts of climate forcing and forest management on general trends in forest structural development over time, and while climate is the main driver of longer-term forest structural dynamics, the role of harvests and other management-driven effects cannot be overlooked. To our knowledge this is the first paper presenting a method to map forest structure in space and time in a way that is compatible with land surface or hydrological models employing sub-grid tiling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation to the impacts of climate change has become a concern in the Nordic countries. Regional responses to climate change impacts are considered to be crucial since they are likely to target specific vulnerabilities with concrete and feasible adaptation measures. The ability of the region to respond to climate change is determined to a large extent by its adaptive capacity that consists of economic, social and political capacity, as well as infrastructure and technological potential. This paper assesses the generic adaptive capacity of Nordic regions by using a set of indicators that reflect five determinants of adaptive capacity. The results of the assessments are presented in maps that illustrate that Nordic regions have high capacity but there are also significant differences between and within countries. Finally, this article also discusses arguments for and against the use of these kinds of assessments in policy-making, and the implications of this for the Nordic countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Nordic countries’ agricultural sector is potentially considered both a winner and loser in relation to climate change. With effective adaptation management, climate change could lead to increased agricultural productivity. Yet if concurrent challenges are left unaddressed, productivity losses may impede gains. Thus, adaptation to climate change is key both to avoid negative consequences and to benefit from opportunities. This paper conducts the first systematic literature review of scientific and grey literature on climate change related opportunities and challenges in Nordic agriculture, resulting in a complex overview of required adaptation actions. The synthesis on suggested adaptation policies and measures shows that farm based adaptation measures appear to be more abundant and more discussed than policy driven adaptation in the scientific literature. This paper identifies a knowledge gap regarding the complexity of adaptation needs and trade-offs in the Nordic agricultural sector. In conclusion, although the agricultural sector in the Nordic region is facing certain benefits from climate change, this review demonstrates profound challenges related directly to climate change. The synthesis of suggested adaptation actions furthermore indicates that adaptation involve trade-offs, however, increased knowledge on this subject is required. Failing to address these challenges might impede Nordic agriculture’s potential gains from climate change in a long-term perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric large‐scale environment determines the occurrence of local extreme precipitation, and it is unclear how climate change affects this relationship. Here we investigate the present‐day relationship between large‐scale circulation types (CTs) and daily precipitation extremes over Scandinavia and its future change. A 50‐member EC‐Earth3 large ensemble is used to assess future changes against internal variability. We show that CTs are related to extreme precipitation over the entire domain. The intensity of extreme daily precipitation increases in all seasons in the future climate, generally following the strength of warming in the six different future scenarios considered. However, no significant future change is found in the relationship between extreme precipitation and the CTs in any season or scenario. The results have important implications for applications that rely on the stability of this relationship, such as statistical and event‐based dynamical downscaling of future weather and climate predictions and long‐term climate projections. Plain Language Summary: The occurrence of local devastating extreme precipitation events is influenced by the large‐scale flow of the atmosphere, that is, high‐ or low‐pressure systems and winds from different directions. Understanding this connection helps us to predict precipitation extremes using more readily available information about the large‐scale flow. However, it is not known if the relationship that we observe in the present climate will hold under future climate conditions. Here we study the present‐day relationship between the large‐scale flow and local precipitation events over Scandinavia and analyze how it will change toward the end of the 21st century. We find that extreme precipitation events become more intense over entire Scandinavia in the future climate, but their connection to the large‐scale environment remains unchanged. Key Points: Large‐scale circulation types (CTs) can be used as precursors of local extreme precipitation events over ScandinaviaThe intensity of extreme precipitation events over Scandinavia increases with the warming strength in the future climateThe relationship between extreme precipitation and CTs remains unchanged over Scandinavia in the future climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses and contrasts two main roles of forestry in light of the debate on the global climate. As the main problem is related to the increases of the CO2-concentration in the atmosphere, forests may be viewed as part of the alleviation of the problem through their function as (i) a source of biomass for energy production, which may replace fossil fuels and thus indirectly reduce CO2-emissions, and as (ii) carbon storage, since a growing forest extracts atmospheric CO2 and fixes it as carbon in biomass. In the Scandinavian forestry, logging residues are increasingly being used for energy production. In this paper the value of forests as a source of bioenergy is added to the traditional timber value. Formulated as a joint production model within the Faustmann framework, the effect of this addition on the optimal rotation length is discussed. Based on data for spruce, the dominant species in the Scandinavian forestry, it is demonstrated that the rotation length is shortened compared to the standard Faustmann model. Shorter rotation length implies less carbon storage. Therefore, in this model without explicit regard to the social carbon storage value of the forest, the gains in terms of the climate problem from utilisation of forest biomass for energy production are being diminished by the value of reduced carbon storage. The carbon value of the forest is then added to complete the model, with the effect of increasing the rotation length, a result that is well known in the literature. Finally, the empirical effects of the interaction of these two climate-related value elements of the forest are discussed. Key words: bioenergy, climate, forestry, joint production [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Space Agency (ESA) has twenty two Member States with common goals of engaging in European space activities. However, the various Member States have a variety of governance structures, strategic priorities regarding space and other sectorial areas depending on their cultural and geopolitical aspirations. The Nordic countries, namely Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, have similarities which result often in common geopolitical and cultural aspects. These in turn shape their respective priorities and interests in setting up their policies in a number of sectorial areas like shipping and fisheries, energy, immigration, agriculture, security and defence, infrastructures, climate change and the Arctic. Space technology, navigation, earth observation, telecommunication and integrated applications can assist the Nordic countries in developing, implementing and monitoring policies of common interest. This paper provides an in-depth overview and a comprehensive assessment of these common interests in policy areas where space can provide support in their realisation. The first part provides a synthesis of the Nordic countries respective priorities through analysing their government programmes and plans. The priorities are classified according to the six areas of sustainability: energy, environment and climate change, transport, knowledge and innovation, natural resources (fisheries, agriculture, forestry, mining, etc), and security and external relations. Although the national strategies present different national perspectives, at the same time, there are a number of similarities when it comes to overall policy objectives in a number of areas such as the Arctic and climate change. In other words, even though the Arctic plays a different role in each country's national context and there are clear differences as regards geography, access to resources and security policies, the strategies display common general interest in sustainable development and management of resources, protection of the environment, international cooperation and regional security. The second part of this paper focuses on the national space strategies and indicates the main priorities and trends. The priorities vary from one country to the other and can include science, navigation, earth observation, human space flight, launchers, technology development, and/or applications. The motivation for investing in space activities also change (e.g. international cooperation, industrial competitiveness, societal benefits, job creation). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent satellite measurements of glacier mass balances show mountain glaciers all over the world had generally negative mass balances in the first decades of the 21st century. Mean summer temperatures all over the world rose from the 1961–1990 period to the 1991–2020 period, implying increasingly negative mass balances. We studied archived annual balances for 38 northern hemisphere glaciers to assess changes within the 1961–2020 period. We used a modified double-mass curve to visualize mass balance changes occurring around 1990. Mean balances in 1961–1990 were already small negative for many of the studied glaciers and became even more negative in 1991–2020 for glaciers in the Alps, at high latitudes and in western North America. The largest mass balance changes were for some glaciers in the Alps. We are unable to explain the lack of change in mean balance for one glacier in High Mountain Asia. We found complex changes for eight glaciers in Scandinavia, even including one glacier with a positive balance. We explain these changes by visualizing the deviations in winter and summer balances from their respective 1961–1990 mean values. High winter balances in the 1990s for Scandinavia partly obscured the emerging trend of increasingly negative summer balances, which we expect to continue in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moisture availability has been identified as one of the most important factors in the context of future climate change. This paper explores the potential of applying a multiproxy approach to dendroclimatology to infer the twentieth-century moisture variability over Fennoscandia. Fields of the warm-season (June-August) standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were developed from a dense network of precipitation-sensitive annually resolved tree-ring width (TRW), maximum density (MXD), and stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope chronologies using a point-by-point local regression technique (PPR). Two different approaches were tested for selecting candidate tree-ring predictors of SPEI for each gridpoint reconstruction: a search radius method and a search spatial correlation contour method. As confirmed by a range of metrics of reconstruction fidelity, both methods produced reconstructions showing a remarkably high accuracy in a temporal sense, but with some minor regional differences. As a whole, the spatial skill of the reconstructed fields was generally quite good, showing the greatest performance in the central and southern parts of the target region. Lower reconstruction skills were observed in northern part of the study domain. Regional-scale moisture anomalies were best captured by the reconstructions, while local-scale features were not as well represented. The authors speculate that a spatially and temporally varying tree-ring proxy response to temperature and precipitation in the region may cause some uncertainties in a Fennoscandian hydroclimatic reconstruction; this needs further investigation. Overall, this study shows a great potential for making long-term spatiotemporal reconstructions of moisture variability for the Fennoscandian region using tree-ring data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transdisciplinary knowledge integration and cross-scale management remain challenges in coastal management after several decades of research and experience with integrated and sustainable coastal management. The aim of this paper is to identify requirements for knowledge integration and development of multi-scale approaches to coastal management through reviewing and re-analysing three Swedish-European research projects: the SUCOZOMA project about sustainable coastal zone management, the FRAP project about conflicts between coastal fishery and species protection, and the SECOA project about solutions to contrasts in coastal metropolitan areas. The strategy of adaptive governance is considered in the light of its ability to assess knowledge requirements for sustainable resource management under conditions of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a global context, the outlook for the Nordic region is relatively favourable, given its relatively stronger resiliency to climate change impacts in comparison to many other geo-political regions of the world. Overall, the projected climatic changes include increases in mean temperatures and in precipitation, although regional variations can be significant. The countries' robust institutions and economies give them a strong capacity to adapt to these changes. Still, the need for adaptation to the changing climate has been and still is substantial, and in most of the region, there has been progress on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits and weaknesses of a Nordic strategy for adaptation? In order to answer these two questions, this paper examines reviews the current national adaptation policies of each Nordic country and discusses the challenges facing a Nordic strategy and finally assesses the potential for common Nordic adaptation policy and further cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing climate and growing human impacts are resulting in globally rising temperatures and the widespread loss of habitats. How species will adapt to these changes is not well understood. The Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) can be found across the Holarctic but is coming under more intense pressure in many places. Studies of recent populations in Finland and Denmark have shown a marked decline in body size of Northern Goshawks over the past century. Here we investigate long‐term changes to Norwegian populations of Northern Goshawk by including material from the Middle Ages. We measured 240 skeletons of modern Northern Goshawks from Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, and 89 Medieval Goshawk bones. Our results show that Norwegian and Swedish female Goshawks have decreased in size over the past century, whilst males showed little decline. Medieval female Goshawks were larger than contemporary females. A decline in forest habitats and a concomitant shift towards smaller prey likely drove a shift to smaller body size in Northern Goshawks. Our study shows that significant body size changes in birds can occur over relatively short time spans in response to environmental factors, and that these effects can sometimes differ between sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency of precipitation extremes is set to change in response to a warming climate. Thereby, the change in extreme precipitation event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions are from either of them (mean or variability) to the change in precipitation extremes is largely unknown. This is, however, relevant for a better understanding of how and why climate extremes change. For this study, two sets of forcing experiments from the regional CRCM5 initial-condition large ensemble are used: a set of 50 members with historical and RCP8.5 forcing and a 35-member (700-year) ensemble of pre-industrial natural forcing. The concept of the probability risk ratio is used to partition the change in extreme-event occurrence into contributions from a change in mean climate or a change in variability. The results show that the contributions from a change in variability are in parts equally important to changes in the mean and can even exceed them. The level of contributions shows high spatial variation, which underlines the importance of regional processes for changes in extremes. While over Scandinavia or central Europe the mean influences the increase in extremes more, the increase is driven by changes in variability over France, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Mediterranean. For annual extremes, the differences between the ratios of contribution of mean and variability are smaller, while on seasonal scales the difference in contributions becomes larger. In winter (DJF) the mean contributes more to an increase in extreme events, while in summer (JJA) the change in variability drives the change in extremes. The level of temporal aggregation (3, 24, 72 h) has only a small influence on annual and winterly extremes, while in summer the contribution from variability can increase with longer durations. The level of extremeness for the event definition generally increases the role of variability. These results highlight the need for a better understanding of changes in climate variability to better understand the mechanisms behind changes in climate extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many authors have claimed that participatory perspectives should be a significant feature of environmental and sustainability education (ESE). This change in ESE practice implies a relocation of the process of environmental knowledge constitution from ‘before’ to ‘in’ the educational event. The aim of this paper is to clarify both the processes of knowledge constitution and the content of the constituted knowledge within participatory ESE practices. Two methods based on John Dewey’s transactional perspective are used in the study: epistemological move analysis and pragmatic discourse analysis. The empirical material consists of video-recorded student discussions about climate change in the setting of a Swedish upper secondary school with a pronounced sustainability approach. In the analyses, six different epistemological moves used by the students are identified. The analyses show how students cooperatively constitute a specific view of climate change by using these moves. A main conclusion of this study is that participatory approaches do not necessarily mean that knowledge becomes more diverse. It is therefore important that teachers pay attention to governing processes among students and occasionally challenge the common view in order to allow for alternative possibilities and views. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We undertake a study in two parts, where the overall aim is to quantitatively compare results from climate proxy data with results from several climate model simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for the mid-Holocene period and the pre-industrial, conditions for the pan-arctic region, north of 60° N. In this first paper, we survey the available published local temperature and precipitation proxy records. We also discuss and quantifiy some uncertainties in the estimated difference in climate between the two periods as recorded in the available data. The spatial distribution of available published local proxies has a marked geographical bias towards land areas surrounding the North Atlantic sector, especially Fennoscandia. The majority of the reconstructions are terrestrial, and there is a large over-representation towards summer temperature records. The available reconstructions indicate that the northern high latitudes were warmer in both summer, winter and the in annual mean temperature at the mid-Holocene (6000 BP±500 yrs) compared to the pre-industrial period (1500AD±500 yrs). For usage in the model-data comparisons (in Part 1), we estimate the calibration uncertainty and also the internal variability in the proxy records, to derive a combined minimum uncertainty in the reconstructed temperature change between the two periods. Often, the calibration uncertainty alone, at a certain site, exceeds the actual reconstructed climate change at the site level. In high-density regions, however, neighbouring records can be merged into a composite record to increase the signal-to-noise ratio. The challenge of producing reliable inferred climate reconstructions for the Holocene cannot be underestimated, considering the fact that the estimated temperature and precipitation fluctuations during this period are in magnitude similar to, or lower than, the uncertainties the reconstructions. We advocate a more widespread practice of archiving proxy records as most of the potentially available reconstructions are not published in digital form. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The melting of the Scandinavian Ice-Sheet in the early Holocene allowed humans to populate the northernmost parts of Europe. Recent excavations of archaeological sites on the riverbank, floodplain and kame terraces of the River Rena, southeast Norway have defined periods of human occupation in riverside environments, which became ice-free during the last deglaciation. In this paper, we extend the scope of previous archaeological work by examining the sedimentology and chronology of five riverside sedimentary sequences along the River Rena. Our aims were to reconstruct the Holocene evolution of part of the river, and determine whether changes in Holocene settlement patterns might be linked to changes in river evolution and/or climate. Results show: (1) widespread draining of the kame terraces of the River Rena occurred shortly before the first consistent human settlement in the area began c. 8 ka BP; (2) human settlement was maintained until the present day, except during a period of previously undocumented abandonment between c. 4 and 3 ka BP, associated with a sustained period of high river discharge. We link the establishment of first undisputable settlement to reduced water levels as glaciers retreated upstream during a 'warmer' phase of the early Holocene, shortly after the 8.2 ka climatic downturn event. The most recent abandonment of the riverbank settlements 4-3 ka BP occurred during the last phase of glacier advance in the River Rena region, which has been linked to the Europe-wide late- Holocene Thermal Decline (Neoglacial) downturn in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the spatio-temporal distribution of NOy species at altitudes between 14 and 31 km as measured with the MIPAS-B instrument on the morning of 21 March 2003 in northern Scandinavia. At lower altitudes (below about 22 km), temperature variations, the distribution of ClONO2, and the tracer N2O reveal the dynamics through the edge of the late arctic polar vortex. At higher altitudes, continuous measurement before, during, and after sunrise provides information about photochemistry illustrating the evolution of the photochemically active gases NO2 and N2O5 around sunrise. The measured temporal evolution of NO2 and N2O5 is compared to box modelling that is run along backward calculated trajectories. While the comparison of measured and modelled N2O5 reveals significant differences, there is a good agreement between the model and observations for NO2 in terms of volume mixing ratios but the simulated decrease shortly after sunrise is underestimated compared to the measurements. The differences are attributed to the photolysis rates used in the box model calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in temperature and moisture resulting from climate change are likely to strongly modify the ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity in high-latitude areas, both through vegetation shifts and via direct warming effects on photosynthesis and decomposition. This paper offers a synthesis of research addressing the potential impacts of climate warming on soil processes and carbon fluxes at the forest--tundra ecotone in Scandinavia. Our results demonstrated higher rates of organic matter decomposition in mountain birch forest than in tundra heath soils, with markedly shallower organic matter horizons in the forest. Field and laboratory experiments suggest that increased temperatures are likely to increase CO2 efflux from both tundra and forest soil providing moisture availability does not become limiting for the decomposition process. Furthermore, colonization of tundra heath by mountain birch forest would increase rates of decomposition, and thus CO2 emissions, from the tundra heath soils, which currently store substantial amounts of potentially labile carbon. Mesic soils underlying both forest and tundra heath are currently weak sinks of atmospheric methane, but the strength of this sink could be increased with climate warming and/or drying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests of Ukraine and the whole world in recent decades are regularly exposed to uncontrolled large wildfires. In Ukraine, huge forest areas were burnt in 2009, 2014 and 2015. In 2018, even the northern Scandinavian countries suffered from forest fires. Global climate change (increasing average temperature and aridity) is expected to contribute to the increasing number and area of fires in the future. The occurrence of fire is impossible without the presence of a source of fire, oxygen and fuel (so-called triangle of fire), but only forest fuel (FF) can be controlled by forestry treatment or by prescribed fire. Effective fire management is impossible without the knowledge of the distribution and qualitative characteristics of FFs. This article provides brief information on the history of research studies on FF in Ukraine and in the countries of the former Soviet Union and the factors that influence the formation of reserves and structure of FF. According to those research articles, the most important factors were soil and climatic conditions and characteristics of plantations. Information about the trends in accumulation of FFs in the Ukrainian pine forests is given. After the evaluation of the research works about FF, it was concluded that the study of fuel in Ukraine is fragmentary, and such studies should be continued, but necessarily after the unification of the methods of sampling and recording data about FF. In the future, this work allows the mapping of FF at the national level. The need to continue collecting field data from forest ecosystems is indicated by the use of new world-class methods for the development of fuel models, taking into account the local conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs' changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs' sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to make predictions on how species distributions may change as a response to climatic change. To assess the reliability of those predictions, they need to be critically validated with respect to what they are used for. While ecologists are typically interested in how and where distributions will change, we argue that SDMs have seldom been evaluated in terms of their capacity to predict such change. Instead, typical retrospective validation methods estimate model's ability to predict to only one static time in future. Here, we apply two validation methods, one that predicts and evaluates a static pattern, while the other measures change and compare their estimates of predictive performance. Location: Fennoscandia. Methods: We applied a joint SDM to model the distributions of 120 bird species in four model validation settings. We trained models with a dataset from 1975 to 1999 and predicted species' future occurrence and abundance in two ways: for one static time period (2013–2016, 'static validation') and for a change between two time periods (difference between 1996–1999 and 2013–2016, 'change validation'). We then measured predictive performance using correlation between predicted and observed values. We also related predictive performance to species traits. Results: Even though static validation method evaluated predictive performance as good, change method indicated very poor performance. Predictive performance was not strongly related to any trait. Main Conclusions: Static validation method might overestimate predictive performance by not revealing the model's inability to predict change events. If species' distributions remain mostly stable, then even an unfit model can predict the near future well due to temporal autocorrelation. We urge caution when working with forecasts of changes in spatial patterns of species occupancy or abundance, even for SDMs that are based on time series datasets unless they are critically validated for forecasting such change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016–2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite—they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article introduces the "Crisis, Conflict, and Climate" research program, spanning 300–700 CE, aiming to investigate the societal effects of climate change, conflict, and crisis in Scandinavia, focusing on Öland island. Topics include the study of ringforts, their utilization phases, and societal roles, utilizing high-resolution data to explore demographics, disease, climate impact, politics, and social change during this specific historical period.

This article examines and describes the nature of lordship in Scandinavia during the Early Medieval period (c.400–1000CE). It counters the assertions of earlier research, which claim that lordship with estates had already developed at the beginning of the period. Earlier arguments have built on assumptions that the development of estates was propelled by the ‘Dust Veil’ and the subsequent climate crisis of the mid-sixth century. Scholars have argued that a more hierarchical society followed, reflected through the emergence of more lavish burial customs. Through a broad comparison with other north-western European regions and peoples, this article demonstrates that these burial customs can be understood differently, and further, that a more hierarchal society was not necessarily the outcome of the crises of the sixth century. The resulting analysis of Scandinavian lordship is then anchored in a detailed case study of the well-preserved settlements, houses, farms and field-systems on the Baltic Island of Öland. It concludes that incentives to create estates in Scandinavia were not present before the Christianization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Vast population movements induced by recurrent climatic cycles have shaped the genetic structure of plant species. During glacial periods species were confined to low‐latitude refugia from which they recolonized higher latitudes as the climate improved. This multipronged recolonization led to many lineages that later met and formed large contact zones.We utilize genomic data from 5000 Picea abies trees to test for the presence of natural selection during recolonization and establishment of a contact zone in Scandinavia.Scandinavian P. abies is today made up of a southern genetic cluster originating from the Baltics, and a northern one originating from Northern Russia. The contact zone delineating them closely matches the limit between two major climatic regions. We show that natural selection contributed to its establishment and maintenance. First, an isolation‐with‐migration model with genome‐wide linked selection fits the data better than a purely neutral one. Second, many loci show signatures of selection or are associated with environmental variables. These loci, regrouped in clusters on chromosomes, are often related to phenology.Altogether, our results illustrate how climatic cycles, recolonization and selection can establish strong local adaptation along contact zones and affect the genetic architecture of adaptive traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While long‐term changes in measures of central tendency of climate elements, that is, mean temperature, are well acknowledged, studies of trends in measures of their variability are much less common. This is despite the fact that trends in variability can have higher effect on climate extremes than trends in mean. Here, four measures of intraseasonal variability are examined: (a) standard deviation of mean daily temperature, (b) the range between the 90th and 10th quantile of mean daily temperature, (c) mean absolute value of day‐to‐day temperature change, and (d) one‐day lagged temporal autocorrelation. ECA&D daily data from 168 stations and linear regression method are utilized to calculate trends of these characteristics in period from 1961 to 2018. Significant trends (positive and negative) are revealed with substantial differences between seasons, regions and measures. The most considerable decreases in temperature variability were recorded in winter, for temporal autocorrelation in eastern Europe and for variance‐based measures in northern Europe. For example, the standard deviation has decreased by more than 10% in the Arctic Ocean. This can indicate a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes in Scandinavia. On the contrary, increasing persistence may suggest a greater likelihood of cold extremes in the East European Plain. Increases in variability prevail only in summer, but not for all measures and not as clearly as decreases in winter. Trends in temporal autocorrelation and day‐to‐day change appear to be sensitive to data issues, such as inhomogeneities and changes in observational procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration, especially of indigenous peoples, related to or influenced by climate change continues to gain increasing research and policy attention. Limited material remains for this topic for Scandinavia's indigenous people, the Saami. This paper contributes to filling this gap by providing a review for the Scandinavian Saami of the possible impacts of climate change on migration. Environmental influences, social influences, and a synthesis through livelihoods impacts, including for reindeer herding, is provided, followed by a discussion of Saami responses to climate change and migration mainly through a governance analysis. Overall, climate change's impacts on the Saami do not necessarily entail abandoning their traditions, livelihoods, or homes. Instead, the most significant impact is likely to be migrants moving into the Arctic to pursue resource opportunities. Working collaboratively with the Saami, policies and practices are needed to ensure that indigenous interests are respected and that indigenous needs are met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abundant centre model (ACM) predicts that the suitability of environmental conditions for a species decreases from the centre of its distribution toward its range periphery and, consequently, its populations will become scarcer, smaller and more isolated, resulting in lower genetic diversity and increased differentiation. However, little is known about whether genetic diversity shows similar patterns along elevational and latitudinal gradients with similar changes in important environmental conditions. Using microsatellite markers, we studied the genetic diversity and structure of 20 populations each of Anthyllis vulneraria along elevational gradients in the Alps from the valleys to the elevational limit (2500 m) and along a latitudinal gradient (2500 km) from Central Europe to the range margin in northern Scandinavia. Both types of gradients corresponded to an 11.5°C difference in mean annual temperature. Genetic diversity strongly declined and differentiation increased with latitude in line with the predictions of the ACM. However, as population size did not decline with latitude and genetic diversity was not related to population size in A. vulneraria, this pattern is not likely to be due to less favorable conditions in the North, but due to serial founder effects during the post‐glacial recolonization process. Genetic diversity was not related to elevation, but we found significant isolation by distance along both gradients, although the elevational gradient was shorter by orders of magnitude. Subarctic populations differed genetically from alpine populations indicating that the northern populations did not originate from high elevational Alpine ones. Our results support the notion that postglacial latitudinal colonization over large distances resulted in a larger loss of genetic diversity than elevational range shifts. The lack of genetic diversity in subarctic populations may threaten their long‐term persistence in the face of climate change, whereas alpine populations could benefit from gene flow from low‐elevation populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synchronized demographic and behavioral patterns among distinct populations is a well-known, natural phenomenon. Intriguingly, similar patterns of synchrony occur among prehistoric human populations. However, the drivers of synchronous human ecodynamics are not well understood. Addressing this issue, we review the role of environmental variability in causing human demographic and adaptive responses. As a case study, we explore human ecodynamics of coastal hunter-gatherers in Holocene northern Europe, comparing population, economic, and environmental dynamics in two separate areas (northern Norway and western Finland). Population trends are reconstructed using temporal frequency distributions of radiocarbondated and shoreline-dated archaeological sites. These are correlated to regional environmental proxies and proxies for maritime resource use. The results demonstrate remarkably synchronous patterns across population trajectories, marine resource exploitation, settlement pattern, and technological responses. Crucially, the population dynamics strongly correspond to significant environmental changes. We evaluate competing hypotheses and suggest that the synchrony stems from similar responses to shared environmental variability. We take this to be a prehistoric human example of the "Moran effect," positing similar responses of geographically distinct populations to shared environmental drivers. The results imply that intensified economies and social interaction networks have limited impact on long-term hunter-gatherer population trajectories beyond what is already proscribed by environmental drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moisture availability has been identified as one of the most important factors in the context of future climate change. This paper explores the potential of applying a multiproxy approach to dendroclimatology to infer the twentieth-century moisture variability over Fennoscandia. Fields of the warm-season (June-August) standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were developed from a dense network of precipitation-sensitive annually resolved tree-ring width (TRW), maximum density (MXD), and stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope chronologies using a point-by-point local regression technique (PPR). Two different approaches were tested for selecting candidate tree-ring predictors of SPEI for each gridpoint reconstruction: a search radius method and a search spatial correlation contour method. As confirmed by a range of metrics of reconstruction fidelity, both methods produced reconstructions showing a remarkably high accuracy in a temporal sense, but with some minor regional differences. As a whole, the spatial skill of the reconstructed fields was generally quite good, showing the greatest performance in the central and southern parts of the target region. Lower reconstruction skills were observed in northern part of the study domain. Regional-scale moisture anomalies were best captured by the reconstructions, while local-scale features were not as well represented. The authors speculate that a spatially and temporally varying tree-ring proxy response to temperature and precipitation in the region may cause some uncertainties in a Fennoscandian hydroclimatic reconstruction; this needs further investigation. Overall, this study shows a great potential for making long-term spatiotemporal reconstructions of moisture variability for the Fennoscandian region using tree-ring data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic changes will influence the possibilities for agricultural production (e.g. longer growing season), agricultural management practices (e.g. changes in tillage, fertilization, increased use of fungicides) and runoff conditions, and thereby the losses of nutrients from agricultural fields to the environment. Nitrogen (N) is of particular interest in the Baltic Sea region because of its adverse effects on water quality. This paper gives an overview of the expected climatic changes in the Nordic–Baltic region, and the possible effects of these changes on runoff and N losses. Downscaled climate scenarios are used as a basis for evaluating the potential effects of climate change on hydrology, runoff and N losses. Examples from selected catchments in Nordic–Baltic water quality monitoring programmes, including data from extreme events, are presented and used for an assessment of the required adaptations. The analysis shows that there is a strong relationship between annual precipitation and runoff, and between runoff and N loss. The seasonality of precipitation, runoff and N loss indicate high losses outside the growing season. With climate change, increased precipitation is expected to occur mainly outside the growing season – in September–March – and result in increased runoff and thereby increased N losses. Existing data show that extreme events of precipitation have occurred in all seasons during the monitoring period, and have caused high runoff and high losses of N. With the expected increases in N losses, there is an urgent need for efficient measures to reduce N losses in order to fulfil the requirements of e.g. the EU Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) and the Nitrates Directive and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was conducted on the territory of the national park Paanayarvi, located in the taiga zone of the European north. The altitude zone common in the territory of the national park is up to 350 m above sea level. The purpose of this work is to study the microbiological and biochemical properties of soils formed under conditions of a gradient of altitude zonation. This work was performed for the first time in this territory. Based on the fatty acid composition of the cell walls of microorganisms, the composition and structure of the microbial community were determined by chemato-mass spectrometry. The dominant microbocenosis of soils of undisturbed territories was revealed. Changes in prokaryotes and microscopic fungi in the gradient of the altitude zone occur in different directions, which is consistent with the work of other researchers. The results suggest that the formation of microbocenosis of soils located in different conditions of the phytocenotic environment depends on the location of the site relative to the height. The latter determines the flow of solar energy into the ecosystem and the hydrothermal regime of soils. The data obtained can be used in monitoring global climate changes, will become the basis for the formation of a general conceptual basis for the functioning of microbial communities of soils of low-mountain landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest landscape covers approximately 10 % of the earth's land area and accounts for almost 30 % of the global annual terrestrial sink of carbon (C). Increased emissions due to climate-change-amplified fire frequency, size, and intensity threaten to remove elements such as C and nitrogen (N) from forest soil and vegetation at rates faster than they accumulate. This may result in large areas within the region becoming a net source of greenhouse gases, creating a positive feedback loop with a changing climate. Meter-scale estimates of area-normalized fire emissions are limited in Eurasian boreal forests, and knowledge of their relation to climate and ecosystem properties is sparse. This study sampled 50 separate Swedish wildfires, which occurred during an extreme fire season in 2018, providing quantitative estimates of C and N loss due to fire along a climate gradient. Mean annual precipitation had strong positive effects on total fuel, which was the strongest driver for increasing C and N losses. Mean annual temperature (MAT) influenced both pre- and postfire organic layer soil bulk density and C : N ratio, which had mixed effects on C and N losses. Significant fire-induced loss of C estimated in the 50 plots was comparable to estimates in similar Eurasian forests but approximately a quarter of those found in typically more intense North American boreal wildfires. N loss was insignificant, though a large amount of fire-affected fuel was converted to a low C : N surface layer of char in proportion to increased MAT. These results reveal large quantitative differences in C and N losses between global regions and their linkage to the broad range of climate conditions within Fennoscandia. A need exists to better incorporate these factors into models to improve estimates of global emissions of C and N due to fire in future climate scenarios. Additionally, this study demonstrated a linkage between climate and the extent of charring of soil fuel and discusses its potential for altering C and N dynamics in postfire recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Climate change is one of the major threats to plant diversity and is expected to force species distributions into latitudinal or altitudinal shifts. The complex biology of orchids, and their many interactions with other organisms, increases their vulnerability in a changing climate. This study focuses on how climatic alterations will affect the distribution of the fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.), one of the most well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, using models that predict the species range changes in the future, based on environmental factors. The orchid's environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards but downhill in the future, experiencing a moderate overall range contraction. More specifically in near- and long-term future, it is expected to be lost in South Europe, especially from the Balkans, while it will gain areas in North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries being among the winners. These results, although conservative since they are based only on abiotic variables, provide useful insights on the fly orchid's response to future climatic change, and can serve as a basis for further studies on a finer scale. Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change is a major strategic issue for insurers, both as a risk and an opportunity. The Geneva Association 1 has therefore urged insurers to move forward in integrating climate-related decisions and actions into day-to-day business, and a framework has been developed to assess insurers' climate change actions. This paper explores the Geneva Association framework for climate change actions in the context of Nordic non-life insurers. This is a four-level framework, ranging from inaction to integration. When the framework was introduced in 2009, the impression was that the insurance industry was reactive in its approach to integrating climate change into the core business. The framework was utilized at the Nordic Insurance Climate Conference in 2009, supporting the Geneva Association notion about the situation. The findings of this case study suggest a difference between two case groups: the Island companies (SMEs), including insurance companies operating in Åland, Faroe Islands and Iceland, and Mainland companies operating in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Island companies are to a large extent inactive, while the Mainland companies are moving forward becoming developed in their approach to dealing with climate-related issues. Company size and outside drivers, including market and social drivers, are two of the factors that account for the difference between the case groups. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change has assisted the northward range expansion of various forest insect pests, increasing the risk of forest damage in Northern Europe. The pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, is common in European pine stands with cyclical outbreaks that have damaged thousands of hectares. In the 1970s, its Finnish northern distribution limit was reported to be 64°N. We re-evaluated the northernmost distribution limit of P. flammea in Finland and studied the effect of temperature sum on its abundance. We used pheromone-based traps throughout Finland in 2019–2020. The number of individuals caught in each trap was coupled with previous year thermal sums from the same location, and the relationship between them was analysed using a generalised linear mixed model. P. flammea had spread into northern Finland to 68°51'N, at ∼10.2 km/year, 50 years ahead of earlier predictions. We found a non-linear correlation between thermal sums and P. flammea abundance, increasing from cold to warm areas. Given the climate change scenarios for Fennoscandia, its range and population could continue to increase, allowing it to become another widespread coniferous-forest insect pest. Understanding the effects of temperature on its populations will allow us to model their probable future distribution and population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timing of germination is a key life‐history trait in plants, which is strongly affected by the strength of seed dormancy. Continental‐wide genetic variation in seed dormancy has been related to differences in climate and the timing of conditions suitable for seedling establishment. However, for predictions of adaptive potential and consequences of climatic change, information is needed regarding the extent to which seed dormancy varies within climatic regions and the factors driving such variation. We quantified dormancy of seeds produced by 17 Italian and 28 Fennoscandian populations of Arabidopsis thaliana when grown in the greenhouse and at two field sites in Italy and Sweden. To identify possible drivers of among‐population variation in seed dormancy, we examined the relationship between seed dormancy and climate at the site of population origin, and between seed dormancy and flowering time. Seed dormancy was on average stronger in the Italian compared to the Fennoscandian populations, but also varied widely within both regions. Estimates of seed dormancy in the three maternal environments were positively correlated. Among Fennoscandian populations, seed dormancy tended to increase with increasing summer temperature and decreasing precipitation at the site of population origin. In the smaller sample of Italian populations, no significant association was detected between mean seed dormancy and climate at the site of origin. The correlation between population mean seed dormancy and flowering time was weak and not statistically significant within regions. The correlation between seed dormancy and climatic factors in Fennoscandia suggests that at least some of the among‐population variation is adaptive and that climate change will affect selection on this trait. The weak correlation between population mean seed dormancy and flowering time indicates that the two traits can evolve independently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60 ∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/ , last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1 / 5 and 1 / 10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonality is an important component in many population systems, and factors such as latitude, altitude and proximity to the coastline affect the extent of the seasonal fluctuations. In this paper, we ask how changes in seasonal fluctuations impact on the population cycles. We use the Fennoscandian vole system as a case study, focusing on variations in the length of the breeding season. We use a predator -- prey model that includes generalist and specialist predation alongside seasonal forcing. Using a combination of bifurcation analysis and direct simulations, we consider the effects of varying both the level of generalist predation and the length of the breeding season; these are the main changes that occur over a latitudinal gradient in Fennoscandia. We predict that varying the breeding season length leads to changes in the period of the multi-year cycles, with a higher period for shorter breeding season lengths. This concurs with the gradient of periodicity found in Fennoscandia. The Fennoscandian vole system is only one of many populations that are affected by geographical and temporal changes in seasonality; thus our results highlight the importance of considering these changes in other population systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To meet the goals of the directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings, the building sector in Europe now faces a transition towards more energy efficient buildings. Research and development of new energy solutions and technology will be necessary for the transition and the importance of analyzing building energy performance increases. This paper aims to review and evaluate different methods that are commonly used to analyze energy performance in residential buildings in Nordic countries, primarily in Sweden, Norway and Finland. A short international review of regulations is also included. The goal is to find commonly used methods and possibilities for the future. The introduced methods are summarized, categorized and compared based on their advantages and disadvantages. Although the three Nordic countries have similar climate conditions and building traditions, the review shows relatively large variations in the definitions of energy performance for residential buildings, as well as variations in how measurements and calculations are used in the methods for energy performance analysis. In the conducted review, methods, or parts of methods, are also found to be used. The methods used to analyze energy performance are found to be more similar than the concepts of energy performance itself in the three countries. These aspects may be considered in further work to develop an international policy practice for energy performance of residential buildings in cold climate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Global perspectives and national approaches have dominated studies of climate-change communication, reflecting the global nature of climate change as well as the traditional research focus on national media systems. In the absence of a global public sphere, however, transnational issue attention is largely dependent on regional media systems, yet the role this regional dimension plays has been largely overlooked. This article presents a comparative study of climate-change coverage in three geo-cultural regions, The Middle East, Scandinavia, and North America, and explores the link between global climate-change communication and regional media systems. It finds that regional variations in climate-change communication carry important communicative implications concerning perceptions of climate change's relevance and urgency. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2°C and +4°C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2°C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1per cent per year in others. At +4°C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Scots pine tree-ring width (TRW) data from Jämtland in the Central Scandinavian Mountains has been used to reconstruct summer temperatures back to 1630 BC. However, it was recently shown that this reconstruction was of limited spatial importance. In this paper, we aim to explain this limitation in the TRW data as a temperature proxy, as well as assess the temperature information from new maximum latewood density (MXD) data. Furthermore, the effect of two standardization methods is evaluated: regional curve standardization (RCS) and a more traditional standardization, termed “non-RCS” standardization. Three TRW and two MXD sites were analyzed. Our results showed that despite the proximity to the Norwegian Sea, the MXD data is a powerful temperature proxy. Difference among sites in TRW data, especially on decadal timescales, together with a lower temperature association, suggests that other factors, such as changes in the local climate regimes, weakens the temperature signal. In general the RCS method overestimates pine growth trends in the latter half of the twentieth century, a feature not seen when using “non-RCS” standardization. This is likely due to an age-bias of older trees in most recent parts of the tree-ring chronologies. This effect will have consequences when reconstructing climate with tree-ring data. To overcome this problem, all age-classes should be represented throughout a chronology. If this is not possible, the use of “non-RCS” standardization is recommended, although this method results in a loss of low-frequency variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seppä, H., Birks, H. J. B., Bjune, A. E. & Nesje, A. 2010: Current continental palaeoclimatic research in the Nordic region (100 years since Gunnar Andersson 1909) - Introduction. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 649-654. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2010.00170.x. ISSN 0300-9483. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]