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The retreating behavior of glaciers observed in most of the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region has given rise to the formation and expansion of numerous glacial lakes in the region. The lakes expansion under changing climate usually poses high risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard for the downstream communities. In the present study, the risk of glacial lake outburst flood was investigated in the HKH region of Pakistan using LANDSAT-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) image data of 2013 period coupled with ground information. The results of present study revealed 3044 lakes (surface area about 134.8 km2) in the three HKH ranges, maximum in the Karakoram (1325) and minimum in the Hindu Kush range (722) during 2013. The lakes exhibited an overall increase of about 26% in number and 7% in area in the region during 2001–2013 period. The increase in lake number was 91% within 2500–3500 m, 20% within 3500–4500 m and 31% within 4500–5500 m elevation range. Among total identified lakes during 2013, 36 were characterized as potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) that can pose GLOF hazard in the HKH region. A regular monitoring of cryosphere changes and critical glacial lakes is essential to develop sustainable risk management strategies for this region in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike glaciers in other parts of the world, Karakoram glaciers seem to be stable or gaining in mass in response to global climate change, a phenomenon known as 'the Karakoram anomaly'. Many of the glaciers experience irregular, frequent, and sudden advances (surges) that pose an increasing threat of ice dam lake formation and subsequent outburst flooding throughout the region. In this study, we document 179 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that occurred from 1533 to 2020 in five major valleys. Sixty-four of the events took place after 1970, and 37 of these had remote sensing imagery that covered the GLOF formation to breaching sequence. Thirty-six glaciers were associated with GLOFS due to ice-front advance building ice barriers in rivers. The Kayger and Khurdopin glaciers are the most hazardous examples, being responsible for 31.8% of major GLOFs in the entire Karakoram. Using a cross-correlation feature-tracking technique on remote sensing imagery, we analyzed ten surge glaciers and documented six surge events from 1990 to 2019. Results show periodic surge cycles for the Khurdopin, Kyager, Shishper, and Chilinji glaciers of c. 15–20 years, with a surge velocity in the mid-2010s higher than that of the late 1990s for all studied glaciers. The higher velocity of a glacier increases the risk of flooding downstream of the terminus because the transfer of a huge ice mass towards the terminus during the surge is a key factor for formation and reformation of series of ice-dammed lakes, thus determining the magnitude and frequency of outburst flood events. The response of Karakorum glaciers to global warming and climate forcing, comprising a continuum of glacier mass gain, ice thinning and ice advance, has resulted in lake formation and ice dam failures. We predict the frequency of GLOFs will increase in the future. These findings support the increasing anomalous behavior of glaciers in the Karakoram region. To synthesize the detailed observations, a conceptual model is presented of ice-dammed lake formation and GLOF initiation in response to glacier surging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow and glaciers are very sensitive to changing climate. Glaciers in the central Karakoram, western Himalaya and eastern Hindukush mountain ranges are not responding to global warming in the same manner as their counterparts around the world. Glaciers in this region are behaving differently. Some are retreating, while others are stable or surging. It is important to monitor these changes to protect downstream communities from the negative consequences. This study is conducted to monitor the state of the selected glaciers of Hunza River Basin, such as Batura, Passu, Ghulkin, Gulmit, Baulter, Barpu, Samaiyar Bar, Muchuhar, and Shishper glaciers were analysed using Digital Elevation Model and satellite images for 1972, 1979, 1990, 1998, 2008 and 2018. A semi-automatic approach was adopted to delineate the glacier boundary supplemented by manual editing. These glaciers show different fluctuations over the last fifty years. The Batura glacier showed surge in the 1970s and then retreated followed by quiescence. There is no prominent change in Ghulkin, Barpu, and Samaiyar Bar glaciers while almost 40 m per year retreat was observed in Passu and Gulmit glaciers but Muchuhar retreated at a faster rate. The surge of Shishper results in the formation of glacier-dammed lake which has so far triggered four Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Overall, area of nine glaciers decreased from 596.54 ± 31.02 km2 in 1972 to 568.52 ± 8.51 km2 in 2018, which accounts for 4.8% decrease in area. This decrease will affect landscape development, regional hydrology and people living downstream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐term monitoring of ice‐dammed lakes is important for understanding the process of lake storage, development, and glacial outburst flood (GLOF). Based on remote sensing observations for the period 1972–2020, we obtained what is so far the most detailed reconstruction of the filling and draining of Kyagar Lake, a typical annually ice‐dammed lake in the north Karakoram. We show that annually repeated lake fillings‐drainings were detected by satellite observations during two periods: 1996–2009 and 2015–2020, while between 2009 and 2015 no obvious cycle occurred. These two intermitted periods with regular annual revival of lake outburst were likely related to the long‐term cycle of glacier surge dynamics, namely two remarkable surge‐induced terminus accelerations during 1995–1997 and 2014–2016. Following each surge, the maximum lake areas decreased by about 33% from 1996 to 2009 and by about 88% from 2015 to 2020. Combined with climatic warming and the thinning of the ice‐dam, the storage capacity of Kyagar Lake will likely continue to decrease in the future, and the risk of lake outburst flood thus becomes lower. Repeated drainage following filling exacerbates the depletion of mass at the glacier terminal, leading to the cessation of storage and creating the conditions for the next glacial surge to occur, creating a long‐term iteration of the surge process. Considering the uncertainty and intensified climate changes, it suggests that a close monitoring of the glacial lake development and glacier dynamics would be still important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global cryosphere is experiencing accelerated melting due to climate change. Currently, the Karakoram anomaly is under discussion with a debate about the possibility that the anomaly may have recently ended. This study aims to evaluate the up-to-date changes in snow cover in the western Karakoram region. We observed the snow cover changes in Passu and Ghulkin valleys in the Hunza River basin (HRB) of the Karakoram through multi-temporal Landsat satellite data between 1995 and 2022. We found a significant reduction in snow cover in these valleys, with an average reduction rate of 0.42 km2/yr, resulting in a total reduction of ∼11.46 km2 between 1995 and 2022. This reduction in snow cover is consistent with the mass loss of glaciers in the Karakoram region in recent years. The decline in snow cover in these valleys is also consistent with the meteorological data. The temperature in summer (June) has significantly increased whereas the precipitation in the accumulation season (March) has decreased. These rapid changes suggest that it is crucially important to monitor the snow cover on a regular basis to support downstream management of snowmelt runoff. In addition, there is a need of planning for mitigation and adaptation strategies for snow-related hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Millions of people rely on river water originating from snow- and ice-melt from basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH). One such basin is the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), where the snow- and ice-melt contribution can be more than 80%. Being the origin of some of the world's largest alpine glaciers, this basin could be highly susceptible to global warming and climate change. Field observations and geodetic measurements suggest that in the Karakoram Mountains, glaciers are either stable or have expanded since 1990, in sharp contrast to glacier retreats that are prevalently observed in the Himalayas and adjoining high-altitude terrains of Central Asia. Decreased summer temperature and discharge in the rivers originating from this region are cited as supporting evidence for this somewhat anomalous phenomenon. This study used remote sensing data during the summer months (July–September) for the period 2000 to 2017. Equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for July, August and September have been estimated. ELA trends for July and September were found statistically insignificant. The August ELA declined by 128 m during 2000–2017 at a rate of 7.1 m/year, testifying to the Karakoram Anomaly concomitant with stable to mass gaining glaciers in the Hunza Basin (western Karakoram). Stable glaciers may store fresh water for longer and provide sustainable river water flows in the near to far future. However, these glaciers are also causing low flows of the river during summer months. The Tarbela reservoir reached three times its lowest storage level during June 2019, and it was argued this was due to the low melt of glaciers in the Karakoram region. Therefore, using remote sensing data to monitor the glaciers' health concomitant with sustainable water resources development and management in the HKH region is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-mountain glaciers can be covered with varying degrees of debris. Debris over glaciers (supraglacial debris) significantly alter glacier melt, velocity, ice geometry, and, thus, the overall response of glaciers towards climate change. The accumulated supraglacial debris impedes the automated delineation of glacier extent owing to its similar reflectance properties with surrounding periglacial debris (debris aside the glaciated area). Here, we propose an automated scheme for supraglacial debris mapping using a synergistic approach of deep learning and multisource remote sensing data. A combination of multisource remote sensing data (visible, near-infrared, shortwave infrared, thermal infrared, microwave, elevation, and surface slope) is used as input to a fully connected feed-forward deep neural network (i.e., deep artificial neural network). The presented deep neural network is designed by choosing the optimum number and size of hidden layers using the hit and trial method. The deep neural network is trained over eight sites spread across the Himalayas and tested over three sites in the Karakoram region. Our results show 96.3% accuracy of the model over test data. The robustness of the proposed scheme is tested over 900 km2 and 1710 km2 of glacierized regions, representing a high degree of landscape heterogeneity. The study provides proof of the concept that deep neural networks can potentially automate the debris-covered glacier mapping using multisource remote sensing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Himalayan, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush (HKH-TMHA) are the three main mountain ranges in the high-mountain Asia region, covering the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In this study, we identified glacial lakes in the HKH-TMHA region based on multitemporal Landsat images taken from 1990 to 2020. We analyzed the spatial distribution and evolution of glacial lakes in the HKH-TMHA region from the perspective of their elevation, size, and terrain aspect; then, we described their temporal changes. The results showed that approximately 84.56% of the glacial lakes (84.1% of the total lake area) were located at elevations between 4000 m and 5500 m, and glacial lakes with areas ranging from 0.01–0.5 km2 accounted for approximately 95.21% of the number and 63.01% of the total area of glacial lakes. The number (38.64%) and area (58.83%) of south-facing glacial lakes were largest in HKH-TMHA and expanded significantly over time. There were 5835 (664.84 ± 89.72 km2) glacial lakes in 1990; from 1990 to 2020, the number of glacial lakes in the HKH-TMHA region increased by 5974 (408.93 km2) in total; and the annual average increase in the area of glacial lakes reached 13.63 km2 (11.15%). In 2020, the total number of glacial lake reached to 9673 (899.66 ± 120.63 km2). In addition, most glacial lakes were located in the Eastern Himalayan, China, and the Indus Basin. Based on the precipitation and temperature analyses performed in our study area, we found inconsistent climate characteristics and changes in the three mountain ranges. In general, the daily precipitation (temperature) increased by 1.0766 mm (1.0311 °C), 0.8544 mm (0.8346 °C), and 0.8245 mm (−0.1042 °C) on the yearly, summer, and winter scales, respectively. Glacial melting and climate change are common contributors to glacial lake expansion. The investigation of glacial lakes in this region can provide basic supporting data for research on glacial lake-related disasters, land cover, and climate change in the high-mountain Asia region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal and annual water supplies of the rivers originating in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan are important to manage the Indus basin irrigation system for better agricultural production and its dependent agrarian economy. In this study, we simulated the current and future snowmelt runoff in a poorly gauged river basin of the Hindukush region under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) furnished with satellite snow cover maps and hydro-meteorological data were used to simulate the daily river discharge for the period 2000‒2005. The results indicated that SRM has effectually simulated the runoff in Chitral River with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.85 (0.84) and 0.88 (0.83) in the basin-wide (zone-wise) application during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results obtained under future climate change scenario showed ∼14‒19% increase in mean summer discharge under three mid-21st century RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. While an increase of ∼13‒37% is expected under late-21st century RCP scenarios. This study can help water resource managers to plan and manage peak discharges from the Chitral River Basin in the future and can thus prevent major losses due to floods in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding of climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates in northern Pakistan because they are sought-after hunting trophies. However, both species are threatened due to several human-induced factors, and these factors are expected to aggravate under changing climate in the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations of ibex and blue sheep in the Pamir-Karakoram mountains in order to (i) update and validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts under climate change scenarios; and (iii) predict future habitats to aid long-term conservation planning. Presence records of target species were collected through camera trapping and sightings in the field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model on presence record and six key climatic variables to predict the current and future distributions of ibex and blue sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) and two-time projections (2050 and 2070) were used for future range predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% and 9% of the total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable under current climatic conditions for Himalayan ibex and blue sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation was a key determinant of suitable habitat for both ungulate species. Under changing climate scenarios, both species will lose a significant part of their habitats, particularly in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges. The Pamir-Karakoram ranges will serve as climate refugia for both species. This area shall remain focus of future conservation efforts to protect Pakistan's mountain ungulates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost and glaciers are being degraded by the warming effects of climate change. The impact that this degradation has on slope stability in mountainous terrain is the subject of ongoing research efforts. The relatively new availability of high-resolution (≤ 10 m) imagery with worldwide coverage and short (≤ 30 days) repeat acquisition times, as well as the emerging field of environmental seismology, presents opportunities for making remote, systematic observations of landslides in cryospheric mountainous terrain. I reviewed the literature and evaluated landslide activity in existing imagery to select five ~ 5000-km2 sites where long-term, systematic observations could take place. The five proposed sites are the northern and eastern flanks of the Northern Patagonia Ice Field, the Western European Alps, the eastern Karakoram Range in the Himalayan Mountains, the Southern Alps of New Zealand, and the Fairweather Range in Southeast Alaska. Systematic observations of landslide occurrence, triggers, size, and travel distance at these sites, especially if coupled with observations from in situ instrumental monitoring, could lead to a better understanding of changes in slope stability induced by climate change. The suggested sites are not meant to be absolute and unalterable. Rather, they are intended as a starting point and discussion starter for new work in this expanding landslide research frontier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large numbers of mountain communities in the Himalayan region depend on glacier-fed kuhl system - gravity flow irrigation, for their sustenance. The depletion and retreat of glaciers often result in disruption of melt flows to kuhl system, which ultimately impacts the agriculture as well as livelihood of the local communities. Sustainability of glacial resource was assessed for establishing kuhl irrigation system based on indices of glacier decrease by number (GDN) and glacier depletion by volume (GDV) during the 2001–2013 period. The selected factors are important in terms of understanding point source and reserve potential of glaciers for sustaining glacier-fed kuhl irrigation in this region. The sustainability of glaciers was found good (i.e. a least decrease or rather increase in glacier number and volume) in about 23.6% glaciers (ice reserves about 705.9 km3) under >10 km2 area class of glaciers mainly in Gilgit and Shigar river basins of the Karakoram range. In the 5–10 km2 class of glaciers, sustainability was good in 49 glaciers (ice reserve 26.59 km3) and under 1–5 km2 class, in 558 glaciers (ice reserve 60.189 km3). Overall sustainability of glaciers appears to prevail in the Karakoram basins. The lesser sustainability of glaciers in the Himalaya basins like Astore and Jhelum would apparently be compensated by monsoon and change in rainfall pattern. A regular monitoring of the glacier resource and utilizing advance water conservation techniques would help in coping with negative impacts of down-wasting of glaciers and provide long-term support to kuhl irrigation system in the Himalayan region in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice dammed glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) associated with surge glaciers are increasing in response to climate change. Predicting the phenomenon to protect downstream communities remains challenging around the globe. Surge-type glaciers are characterized by unsteady movements and frequent frontal advances, which cause natural hazards by obstructing river channels, forming ice-dammed lakes, which can cause GLOFs, posing threats downstream. The determination of the surge characteristics, timing and evolution of lakes and GLOFs is fundamental to flood control and disaster management. In this study, the case of the Khurdopin Glacier (Karakoram) is used to elucidate key behavioral characteristics of surging glaciers that usefully can be applied to understand the GLOF hazard from glaciers worldwide. Seven surge periodical cycles associated with the Khurdopin Glacier that occurred at intervals of 19–20 years between 1880 and 2020 were investigated using a GLOF dataset. The ice flow dynamics of three surge events that occurred between 1970 and 2020 were analyzed using high-resolution satellite imagery. The results indicate that the maximum and minimum surge velocities control the conduit development that drains lakes resulting in a number of GLOFs. A surge between 1998 and 2002 generated six GLOFs. A subglacial drainage model was developed to estimate the timing of the peak discharge in GLOF hydrographs. The results show that conduit melt enlargement becomes the dominant drainage process at one-third of the rising limb. These floods' high peak discharges and short durations are primarily due to the higher lake water temperature, which controls the conduit enlargement rate. Based on the current study results, the proposed model can be adopted worldwide for surge-type glaciers. The initiation of the main surge period, which leads to lake formation, can be anticipated, as the pre-surge period can be identified using remote-sensing analysis. The timing of ice-dammed lake formation and GLOFs can be estimated, providing residents and authorities time to take precautionary measures and thus limiting damage downstream. • The study presents the development of the reoccurrence surge cycle between 1880 and 2020 using a GLOF dataset. • Seven reoccurring surge cycles with the interval of 19-20 years developed at the Khurdopin Glacier. • The ice flow dynamics of three surge cycles between 1970-2020 were analyzed using high-resolution satellite imagery. • The glacier ice flow dynamics indicate that the maximum and minimum surge velocities control the number of GLOFs. • Results from the Khurdopin Glacier system can be applied to other surge-type glaciers, both regionally and globally. • Where models of glacier surging, lake formation and GLOFs require detection and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]