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This study first developed a comprehensive semiautomatic data homogenization procedure to produce gap-infilled and homogenized monthly precipitation data series for 425 long-term/critical stations in Canada, which were then used to assess Canadian historical precipitation trends. Data gaps in the 425 series were infilled by advanced spatial interpolation of a much larger dataset. The homogenization procedure repeatedly used multiple homogeneity tests without and with reference series to identify changepoints/inhomogeneities, the results from which were finalized by manual analysis using metadata and visual inspection of the multiphase regression fits. As a result, 298 out of the 425 data series were found to be inhomogeneous. These series were homogenized using quantile matching adjustments. The homogenized dataset shows better spatial consistency of trends than does the raw dataset. The improved gridding and regional mean trend estimation methods also provide more realistic trend estimates. With these improvements, Canadian historical precipitation trends were found to be dominantly positive and significant, except in central-south Canada where the trends are generally insignificant and small with mixed directions. For annual precipitation, the largest increases are seen in southeastern Canada and along the Pacific coast; however, the largest relative increases (in percent of the 1961–90 mean) are seen in northern Canada. The largest trend difference between northern and southern Canada is seen in winter, in which significant increases in the north were matched with significant decreases in the south. Significance Statement: This study aims to produce a homogenized long-term monthly precipitation dataset for Canada, which is then used to assess Canadian historical precipitation trends. The work is important because it developed a comprehensive algorithm for homogenization of precipitation data, and the results provide better representation of precipitation climate and more robust estimates of precipitation trends. It also identified the causes for large biases in the published estimates of precipitation trends over Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has severe and sweeping impacts on mental health. Although research is burgeoning on mental health impacts following climate and weather extremes, less is known about how common these impacts are outside of extreme events. Existing research exploring the prevalence of psychosocial responses to climate change primarily examines university students and uses non-random sampling methods. Herein, our protocol outlines an approach to data collection, processing, and analysis to estimate the population prevalence, magnitude, and distribution of mental health responses to climate change in Canada. A cross-sectional survey of youth and adults aged 13 years and older in Canada will be administered over the course of one year. The questionnaire will take approximately 10 minutes to complete orally and will be administered in English, French, and Inuktitut. The survey will consist of six sections: (1) self-reported past experiences of climate change; (2) self-reported climate-related emotions; (3) self-reported past and current impacts, anticipatory impacts, and vicarious experiences; (4) self-reported subclinical outcomes; (5) self-reported behavioural responses; and (6) demographics. A multi-stage, multi-stratified random probability sampling method will be used to obtain a sample representative of the Canadian population. We will use two different modes of recruitment: an addressed letter sent by postal mail or a telephone call (landlines and cellular). Population-weighted descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, and weighted multivariable regression will be used to analyse the data. The results of this survey will provide the first national prevalence estimates of subclinical mental health responses to climate change outcomes of people living in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing climate change requires societies to transition away from fossil fuels toward low-carbon energy, including renewables. Unfortunately, large wind projects have proven politically controversial, with groups opposing them across advanced economies. To date, there are few large-scale, systematic studies to identify the prevalence and predictors of opposition to wind energy projects. Here, we analyzed a dataset of wind energy projects across the United States and Canada between 2000 and 2016. We found that during this period, in the United States, 17% of wind projects faced significant opposition, and in Canada, 18% faced opposition, with rates in both countries growing over time. Opposition was concentrated regionally in the Northeastern United States and in Ontario, Canada. In both countries, larger projects with more turbines were more likely to be opposed. In the United States, opposition was more likely and more intense in areas with a higher proportion of White people, and a smaller proportion of Hispanic people. In Canada, opposition was more likely and more intense in wealthier communities. The most common tactics used to oppose wind energy were court cases, legislation, and physical protests. The number of people engaging in opposition to wind projects is likely small: Across articles that cited the number of individuals engaging in protests, the median number was 23 in the United States and 34 in Canada. When wealthier, Whiter communities oppose wind projects, this slows down the transition away from fossil fuel projects in poorer communities and communities of color, an environmental injustice we call "energy privilege. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal refuges are becoming increasingly influential for dictating the population status and spatial distribution of cold-water stenotherm salmonids in the mid- to southern extent of their range. The global climate is predicted to continue to warm, and therefore, the overall thermal suitability of freshwater habitats for stream salmonids is predicted to decline in concert. However, stream and river thermal heterogeneity will offer considerable resiliency for these populations. Thermal refuges are formed by many physical processes; common natural refuges include cold tributary plumes, groundwater springs, alcoves, and hyporheic upwellings. However, many anthropogenically formed refuges (such as stratified reservoirs or cold-water tailrace outflows) also exist in hydropower-regulated rivers. The significance of these refuges to stream salmonids depends on their size and temperature differential, but also other habitat characteristics such as their depth, flow velocity, Froude number, and many biotic factors within the refuges. Modern technologies such as drone-mounted thermal infrared cameras and other remote sensing techniques allow for the efficient identification of such refuges, and inexpensive options include the identification of refuges during ice cover using orthophotographs. Behavioural thermoregulation, i.e., salmonids aggregating in cold-water refuges, can be either facultative or obligate and the timing of these events is governed by life stage, species, and population-specific physiologically regulated cumulative thresholds that are inherently related to the recent thermal history, or hysteresis, of each individual. Salmonids appear to have an excellent spatial cognition for locating and relocating cold-water refuges, and their spatial distribution is largely affected by the availability of the cold-water refuges during the warm-water period in many thermally stressed rivers. Gregarious behaviour is the norm for salmonid fishes within the thermal refuges; however, the size/microhabitat hierarchy appears to dictate the within-refuge distribution at the micro-scale. There continues to be a great impetus for protecting—and in carefully determined cases creating—cold-water refuges in the future. A thorough understanding of what a "goldilocks" refuge is for various salmonids and their different life stages will be imperative as cold-water restoration is gaining popularity. Finally, disentangling the roles of the climate-induced and landscape activity-induced warming potential of fluvial freshwater will be important to ensure continued environmentally responsible landscape activities in future waterscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aboveground biomass (AGB) of short-stature shrubs and trees contain a substantial part of the total carbon pool within boreal ecosystems. These ecosystems, however, are changing rapidly due to climate-mediated atmospheric changes, with overall observed decline in woody plant AGB in boreal northwestern Canada. Allometric equations provide a means to quantify woody plant AGB and are useful to understand aboveground carbon stocks as well as changes through time in unmanaged boreal ecosystems. In this paper, we provide allometric equations, regression coefficients, and error statistics to quantify total AGB of shrubs and short-stature trees. We provide species- and genus-specific as well as multispecies allometric models for shrub and tree species commonly found in northwestern boreal forest and peatland ecosystems. We found that the three-dimensional field variable (volume) provided the most accurate prediction of shrub multispecies AGB (R2 = 0.79, p < 0.001), as opposed to the commonly used one-dimensional variable (basal diameter) measured on the longest and thickest stem (R2 = 0.23, p < 0.001). Short-stature tree AGB was most accurately predicted by stem diameter measured at 0.3 m along the stem length (R2 = 0.99, p < 0.001) rather than stem length (R2 = 0.29, p < 0.001). Via the two-dimensional variable cross-sectional area, small-stature shrub AGB was combined with small-stature tree AGB within one single allometric model (R2 = 0.78, p < 0.001). The AGB models provided in this paper will improve our understanding of shrub and tree AGB within rapidly changing boreal environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern boreal forests are characterized by accumulation of accumulation of peat (e.g., known as paludification). The functioning of northern boreal forest species and their capacity to adapt to environmental changes appear to depend on soil conditions. Climate warming is expected to have particularly pronounced effects on paludified boreal ecosystems and can alter current forest species composition and adaptation by changing soil conditions such as moisture, temperature regimes, and soil respiration. In this paper, we review and synthesize results from various reported studies (i.e., 88 research articles cited hereafter) to assess the effects of climatic warming on soil conditions of paludified forests in North America. Predictions that global warming may increase the decomposition rate must be considered in combination with its impact on soil moisture, which appears to be a limiting factor. Local adaptation or acclimation to current climatic conditions is occurring in boreal forests, which is likely to be important for continued ecosystem stability in the context of climate change. The most commonly cited response of boreal forest species to global warming is a northward migration that tracks the climate and soil conditions (e.g., temperature and moisture) to which they are adapted. Yet, some constraints may influence this kind of adaptation, such as water availability, changes in fire regimes, decomposer adaptations, and the dynamic of peat accumulation. In this paper, as a study case, we examined an example of potential effects of climatic warming on future paludification changes in the eastern lowland region of Canada through three different combined hypothetical scenarios based on temperature and precipitation (e.g., unchanged, increase, or decrease). An increase scenario in precipitation will likely favor peat accumulation in boreal forest stands prone to paludification and facilitate forested peatland expansion into upland forest, while decreased or unchanged precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will probably favor succession of forested peatlands to upland boreal forests. Each of the three scenarios were discussed in this study, and consequent silvicultural treatment options were suggested for each scenario to cope with anticipated soil and species changes in the boreal forests. We concluded that, despite the fact boreal soils will not constrain adaptation of boreal forests, some consequences of climatic warming may reduce the ability of certain species to respond to natural disturbances such as pest and disease outbreaks, and extreme weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faced with increasing urbanization and uncertainties linked to climate change, the scientific community has integrated the concept of resilience into urban management practices. Once revolutionary, now a buzzword, resilience is a concept that is difficult to transform into an integrated tool that stakeholders accept and adopt. This paper offers a perspective on the different interpretations of resilience, its difficult implementation and the tools that seek to operationalize it. The underlying questions are how these tools are appropriated by urban managers and territorial decision-makers, and how the theoretical concept can be translated into resilient urban development. This research paper reviews the work on resilience and investigates its use and operationalization, comparing two different approaches – organizational (Canada) and holistic (France) – that aim to clarify and operationalize resilience. These theoretical approaches have been combined to create workshops for urban managers so they can move from theoretical results to practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Osborne, P.D. and Forest, A., 2016. Sediment dynamics from coast to slope - Southern Canadian Beaufort Sea. In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 537-541. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Profound changes in cross-shelf sediment fluxes are anticipated in coming decades in the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea where an accelerated increase in temperature could lead to large changes in Arctic river hydrology and coastal-marine geomorphologic processes. In the past decade sediment exported to the Beaufort Shelf has increased while sea level pressure has increased accelerating the Beaufort Gyre, strengthening coastal upwelling and expanding the Mackenzie River plume offshore. Sea-ice extent has decreased while storminess has increased increasing wave action, coastal downwelling, current surge and resuspension and transport on the shoreface and shelf. This paper investigates mechanisms, quantities and rates of sediment transport operating in this cold continental shelf-slope environment. Past studies from more than 2 decades of research are compared with recent measurements to develop improved estimates of sediment sources, pathways, fate and fluxes across the shelf and slope. In particular, we explore connections between data from a long term mooring observatory deployed over the continental shelf and slope during the ArcticNet-Industry Partnership (2009-2011) and Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment (BREA 2011-2015) to those acquired in studies focusing on nearshore and shoreface. Sediment fluxes from the Mackenzie River and erosion of permafrost coasts are compared with outer shelf-slope measurements of settling particles and near-bottom fluxes. In turn, the role of atmospheric and cryospheric processes in forcing sediment transfer from coast to slope is investigated to assess system response to changing climate and evaluate implications for marine hydrocarbon resource development along the continental margin of the Arctic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle. This paper presents the results of a pilot project for the Yamaska River in Québec. The objective of this project is to evaluate the river's vulnerability to low flows attributable to climate change and to analyze a no-regrets adaptation strategy at locations identified as vulnerable. The vulnerability was evaluated using statistical indicators (low flow indices) based on long-term observations at four locations in the basin. A distributed physically-based hydrological model in use in Québec was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data to properly represent low flows. Hydrological simulations used seven climate projections provided by the north american regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP) s project. Also, five members of the canadian regional climate model (CRCM), nested with the coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario, were run for a reference (1971-2000) period and a future (2041-2070) period. Streamflow simulations indicate a degradation of future low flow conditions, particularly in June and August, when compared to the reference period. In addition, the 7-day low flow value with a 2-year return period (7Q2) and the 7-day low flow value with a 10-year return period (7Q10) decrease by 16-64% and 18-45% respectively. A no-regrets adaptation strategy allowing stakeholders to reduce withdrawal according to alert levels was implemented. Simulations of the application of the no-regrets adaptation strategy reduced the number of days where streamflows are below the Crisis level in the future period by at least 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability assessments (VAs) have been widely used to understand the risks posed by climate change and identify opportunities for adaptation. Few studies, however, have evaluated VAs from the perspective of intended knowledge users or with reference to established best practices. In this paper, we identify and evaluate VAs focusing on the built environment in northern Canada. We document 16 completed VAs, which range from engineering-based studies of the vulnerability of specific infrastructural assets (e.g. building foundations, roads) to community-based assessments characterizing the vulnerability of the built environment in general in specific communities. We then evaluate projects based on the extent to which they incorporate best practices for vulnerability assessment, informed by a review of the scholarship and interviews with practitioners and knowledge users in the north ( n = 21). While completed VAs have increased our understanding of the risks posed by climate change, none perform well across all evaluation criteria, and interviewees identified the need for improvement to VAs to inform decision making. Specifically, there is a need for greater emphasis on stakeholder engagement and effective communication of research findings, and interdisciplinary collaboration to capture the multiple drivers of vulnerability, cost impacts, and examine the performance of infrastructural assets under different climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For over two decades, municipal climate progress has been inventoried and analysed using a common reporting framework. While useful for highlighting the extent of municipal engagement in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, we know little about how comprehensive this reporting framework is. Are municipal governments engaging in mitigation activities outside this framework? And what about climate adaptation activity for which no long-standing milestone reporting framework has existed? Based on results from a national survey of municipal governments in Canada, the paper reveals that municipal governments are engaged in many climate activities and processes that common inventories and reporting systems do not capture. The paper argues that these ‘in between activities’ – the not-yet counted climate actions that take place between and outside of milestone initiation and completion – have practical importance for future climate action and theoretical importance by complementing growing evidence about the nature of municipal climate activities and climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a likely addition to the unpredictable challenges urban communities will face. Enhancing urban forests has gained prominence as a climate adaptation tool in cities. The fact that urban forests are also vulnerable is now starting to emerge. Many urban forest management professionals do not know how to take climate change into account and what aspects of urban forest vulnerability to climate change to prioritize. Bringing climate change to the forefront of the decision-making process in urban forest management, and urban forests to the forefront of urban climate issues, is important to urban forest success. This paper presents an exploratory assessment of vulnerability to climate change in the Canadian urban forests of Halifax, London, and Saskatoon. The objectives of the assessment were to: 1) identify the elements of urban forest exposure and sensitivity to climate change, the nature of the expected impact, and the adaptive capacities that exist in these three urban forests; 2) assess which of these elements contributes more to urban forest vulnerability to climate change; and, 3) elicit adaptive strategies based on this information. The method used was participatory and expert-based and allowed for a systematic evaluation of vulnerability. Exposures related to drought, heat stress, and wind, susceptibility of urban trees to insects and diseases, and the sensitivity of young trees and tree species with specific temperature and moisture requirements, are the main concerns regarding the vulnerability of urban forests to climate change in these three cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale: Intersectoral action (ISA) has been at the forefront of public health policy discussions since the 1970s. ISA incorporates a broader perspective of public health issues and coordinates efforts to address the social, political, economic and environmental contexts from which health determinants operate and are created. Despite being forwarded as a useful way to address and treat complex or 'wicked' problems, such policy issues are still often addressed within, rather than across, disciplinary silos and ISA has been documented to fail more often than it succeeds., Aims and Objectives: This paper contributes to an understanding of ISA by outlining and applying critical systems heuristics (CSH) theory and methods., Methods: CSH theory and methods are described and discussed before applying them to the example of addressing climate change and health equity through public health practice., Results: CSH thinking provides useful tools to engage stakeholders, question relations of power that may exist between collaborating partners, and move beyond power inequalities that guide ISA initiatives., Conclusions: CSH is a compelling framing that can improve an understanding of the collaborative relationships that are a prerequisite for engaging in ISA to address complex or 'wicked' policy problems such as climate change., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is projected to increase fire severity and frequency in the boreal forest, but it could also directly affect post-fire recruitment processes by impacting seed production, germination, and seedling growth and survival. We reviewed current knowledge regarding the effects of high temperatures and water deficits on post-fire recruitment processes of four major tree species (Picea mariana, Pinus banksiana, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera) in order to anticipate the effects of climate change on forest recovery following fire in the boreal biome. We also produced maps of future vulnerability of post-fire recruitment by combining tree distributions in Canada with projections of temperature, moisture index and fire regime for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods. Although our review reveals that information is lacking for some regeneration stages, it highlights the response variability to climate conditions between species. The recruitment process of black spruce is likely to be the most affected by rising temperatures and water deficits, but more tolerant species are also at risk of being impacted by projected climate conditions. Our maps suggest that in eastern Canada, tree species will be vulnerable mainly to projected increases in temperature, while forests will be affected mostly by droughts in western Canada. Conifer-dominated forests are at risk of becoming less productive than they currently are, and eventually, timber supplies from deciduous species-dominated forests could also decrease. Our vulnerability maps are useful for prioritizing areas where regeneration monitoring efforts and adaptive measures could be developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Canadian Journal of Forest Research is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper discusses the application of qualitative scenarios to understand community vulnerability and adaptation responses, based on a case study in the Slave River Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Three qualitative, graphic scenarios of possible alternative futures were developed, focusing on two main drivers: climate change and resource development. These were used as a focal point for discussions with a cross-section of residents from the community during focus groups, interviews and a community workshop. Significant overlap among the areas of perceived vulnerability is evident among scenarios, particularly in relation to traditional land use. However, each scenario also offers insights about specific challenges facing community members. Climate change was perceived to engender mostly negative livelihood impacts, whereas resource development was expected to trigger a mix of positive and negative impacts, both of which may be more dramatic than in the 'climate change only' scenario. The scenarios were also used to identify adaptation options specific to individual drivers of change, as well as more universally applicable options. Identified adaptation options were generally aligned with five sectors-environment and natural resources, economy, community management and development, infrastructure and services, and information and training-which effectively offer a first step towards prioritization of 'no regrets' measures. From an empirical perspective, while the scenarios highlighted the need for bottom-up measures, they also elucidated discussion about local agency in adaptation and enabled the examination of multi-dimensional impacts on different community sub-groups. An incongruity emerged between the suite of technically oriented adaptation options and more socially and behaviourally oriented barriers to implementation. Methodologically, the qualitative scenarios were flexible, socially inclusive and consistent with the Indigenous worldview; allowed the incorporation of different knowledge systems; addressed future community vulnerability and adaptation; and led to the identification of socially feasible and bottom-up adaptation outcomes. Despite some caveats regarding resource requirements for participatory scenario development, qualitative scenarios offer a versatile tool to address a range of vulnerability and adaptation issues in the context of other Indigenous communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of climate change (CC) is affecting and changing the development of the natural environment, biological species, and human society. In order to better understand the influence of climate change and provide convincing evidence, the need to quantify the impact of climate change is urgent. In this paper, a climate change model is constructed by using a radial basis function (RBF) neural network. To verify the relevance between climate change and extreme weather (EW), the EW model was built using a support vector machine. In the case study of Canada, its level of climate change was calculated as being 0.2241 ("normal"), and it was found that the factors of CO2 emission, average temperature, and sea surface temperature are significant to Canada's climate change. In 2025, the climate level of Canada will become "a little bad" based on the prediction results. Then, the Pearson correlation value is calculated as being 0.571, which confirmed the moderate positive correlation between climate change and extreme weather. This paper provides a strong reference for comprehensively understanding the influences brought about by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying a proposed project's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and scrutinizing their effect on climate change are increasingly required in Canadian environmental assessment (EA) processes. This paper investigates to what degree an EA authority's intention for the inclusion of GHG considerations has resulted in implementation into environmental impact statements (EISs) by proponents and how these considerations influence the achievement of GHG reduction targets. Fifteen projects across five Canadian jurisdictions were reviewed. The examination revealed that well-developed intentions by EA authorities did not necessarily result in proponents following guidelines for GHG consideration in their EISs due to the absence of regulation or clearly defined policies. Conversely, even though intentions by an EA authority are underdeveloped in some jurisdictions, EISs sometimes exhibited thorough GHG assessments due to mechanisms in the EA process through which GHG consideration by the proponent could be compelled. The examination did not reveal how GHG consideration in EA currently assists in meeting reduction targets. A GHG emissions limit imposed during the EA process could link EA to success in meeting these targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically an important transportation corridor in the Northwest Territories, climate change has shortened the duration of the Mackenzie River's navigational season. Communities rely increasingly on airlift as the growing volatility affects barging operations, leading to higher overall freight costs. Using an options approach, we present a methodological framework that supports flexible infrastructure decision making, accounting for the impacts of climate change uncertainty. We apply this method to the decision of whether to continue barging on the Mackenzie River, or connect the entire corridor by extending the all-weather Mackenzie Valley Highway, explicitly considering uncertainties in river barging conditions. We first model river open season days as a stochastic process; barging is dependent on the number of open season days, which in turn is affected by climate change. Second, we evaluate the expected cost of barging and airlift each season using a modified Black-Scholes model. Finally, we use real options to determine how long construction of the all-weather highway may be deferred. The results indicate that it is advisable to defer construction nearly a decade, in balancing the costs of construction against climate change uncertainty. This paper demonstrates that when we explicitly incorporate the impact of climate change on project valuations, particularly those in northern and Arctic Canada where these impacts are considerable, project valuations can change significantly such that all-weather road construction is supported, even if it is deferred to future years. This method can assist federal and territorial governments in communicating the impacts of climate change on communities, and provide another tool to support multi-layered, complex transportation infrastructure investment decisions that address these rapidly changing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper is concerned with thermal disturbances in continuous permafrost due to open pit mining and tailings impoundment in the cold regions of Northern Canada. Numerical simulations were conducted to investigate issues of thermal regime changes and permafrost degradation in both the short term and the long term in connection with the proposed Kiggavik project in Nunavut, Canada. The results of numerical simulations indicate that no open talik would form below the East Zone and Center Zone pits during the estimated mining and milling operation period of 14 years, although a thin thawed zone would develop surrounding the open pits. For the Main Zone pit where the excavation would break through permafrost, the open talik remains following an extended operation period of 25 years with a 5 to 30 m thawed zone along the pit side walls. In the long term, with a plausible climate change scenario of 5 °C increase in the mean annual ground surface temperature during the next 100 years, the permafrost surrounding the in-pit tailings management facilities (TMFs) would reduce greatly in about 500 years. However, an approximately 40 m thick permafrost layer would remain on the top of the TMFs, which is impervious and would prevent any tailings pore water from migrating upward to reach the ground surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this paper, the stratigraphic occurrence of n -alkanes (C n) is investigated in three peat cores (Mildred, JPH4 and McMurray) from the ombrotrophic peatlands in northeastern Alberta, Canada, to determine their origin, biomass input, and paleoclimatic significance. The molecular composition of n -alkanes is dominated by the >C 21 medium- to long-chain homologues, with a strong odd over even predominance. A number of n -alkane-based indices (e.g. predominant n -alkane, C 23 /C 29 , C 23 /(C 27 + C 31), P aq , ACL, and CPI), show changing conditions in the organic matter (OM) input from Sphagnum species or terrestrial vascular plants, which increasingly contributed upwards in the peat profiles, and through time. P aq and C 23 /(C 27 + C 31) proxies are similar in the three cores, and allow us to infer vegetation variations that coincide with the climate alternations of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and modern Recent Warming (RW). The utilization of ACL-ket and (C 23 + C 25)/(C 27 + C 29 + C 31)-ket proxies, performed in comparison with n -alkane proxies, further support the biomarker-based reconstructions of paleoclimate variations over recent centuries. This study suggests that n -alkane homologues are sensitive to vegetation and climate changes and thus are reliable biomarkers for tracking past shifts in vegetation and climate variations in peat archives. • Determine organic matter source of peat sediments from n -alkane biomarkers. • C 23 /(C 27 +C 31) n -alkane proxy is proposed and can effectively characterize climate changes. • P aq proxy indication could be misleading when the contribution of Sphagnum fuscum to the peat is large. • n -Alkan-2-one proxy is studied to further confirm the biomarker-based reconstruction of paleoclimatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil respiration is a crucial source of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the atmosphere. The underlying processes involved are multifaceted, sequential chemical reactions associated with the conversion of soil organic carbon to CO 2. In this paper, we present a mechanistic, biogeochemical model to simulate soil CO 2 emissions considering the microbial and sequential chemical processes using the well-established hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the first time. The soil CO 2 emissions from multiple sequential soil chemical reactions were compared with the observed data at three sites in Canada. The results show that the modelled CO 2 emission rates are in good agreement with the observed data with performance statistics: PBIAS: 0.13%–23%; NSE: 0.27 to 0.62; RSR: 0.60 to 0.84; R2: 0.29 to 0.83. This approach could be used in future regional to global-scale models for simulating the soil CO 2 emission and hydrological processes. Image 1 • Modelling of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. • Soil chemical reactions modelling using microbial kinetics and thermodynamics. • Modelling of soil autotrophic respiration and soil heterotrophic respiration. • Modelling of soil CO 2 emissions using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). • Watershed-scale modelling of soil CO 2 emission using SWAT tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses risks to coastal cities due to sea-level rise and changes in storm surge. Using the contingent valuation method and payment card format, this paper seeks to estimate residents of Halifax Regional Municipality's willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding impacts from storm surge. The contribution of this study is the application of this method in a previously unstudied region, to understand individuals' perception of risk and WTP to avoid damage, in order to inform policy aimed at protecting against damage due to sea-level rise and storm surge. WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change, and also for public vs. private goods. Data is analyzed and compared using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. Results suggest that on average, WTP is roughly $12 per month per household over a ten-year period without the expectation of climate change, and roughly $13 per month per household assuming climate change will have negative impacts in the region. Individuals are most often willing to pay to protect against damages to public infrastructure, as well as power outages. Income and education do not play a major role in individuals WTP. Vulnerability to flooding and level of concern related to risky events have a statistically significant impact on WTP in all models, and gender and age have an impact on WTP in some models. • Willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding is estimated in Halifax, Canada. • WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change. • Data is analyzed using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. • WTP is roughly $12–13 per month per household over a ten-year period. • Vulnerability to flooding and concern related to risky events have an impact on WTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Global warming is already affecting the oceans through changes in water temperature, acidification, oxygen content and sea level rise, amongst many others. These changes are having multiple effects on marine species worldwide, with subsequent impacts on marine fisheries, peoples' livelihoods and food security. This work presents a review of the recent literature on the current and projected impacts of climate change on Canada's Pacific marine ecosystem. We find that there is an increasing number of studies in British Columbia focusing on changes in ocean conditions and marine species responses under climate change, including an emerging literature on the socio-economic impacts of these changes considered to be a knowledge gap. According to the literature, it is well established that ocean temperatures are increasing over the long-term, especially, in southern areas of British Columbia. Warming trends are increasing in the spring and are strongest in summer. However, there are important uncertainties regarding other climate drivers, such as oxygen concentration and acidification, stemming mainly from the insufficiency of data. Pacific salmon, elasmobranchs, invertebrates and rockfishes are amongst the most vulnerable species groups to climate change in British Columbia. Also, shifts in stock distribution and fish abundance under climate change may have a significant impact on fish supply affecting the livelihoods and food security of some British Columbians. The magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary according to a latitudinal gradient, with southern coastal areas being more affected than northern and central areas; challenging multiple areas of governance, such as equity and fishing access amongst First Nations; and institutional arrangements for transboundary stocks between the U.S. and Canada. Highlights • Climate change is impacting marine species worldwide, affecting marine fisheries, peoples' livelihoods and food security. • There is an emerging literature on the socio-economic impacts of climate change at the local level. • This paper presents a review of the literature published on these impacts in British Columbia's marine species and fisheries. • Socio-economic impacts will vary according to a latitudinal gradient with unequal distribution of losses in marine catches. • We identify some of the risks that fisheries, communities and the economy are facing in the region due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Storm surges and waves are key climate-driven parameters affecting the design and operation of ports and other infrastructure on the coast. Reliable predictions of future storm surges and waves are not yet available for the west coast of Canada, and this data gap hinders effective climate risk assessment, planning and adaptation. This paper presents numerical simulations of storm surges and waves in British Columbia coastal waters under a future climate (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario (RCP8.5). The numerical models were first forced by wind and surface pressure fields from the ERA-5 global reanalysis, and calibrated and validated using historical wave and water level records. The models were then driven by atmospheric data from four regional climate models (RCMs) to investigate potential changes in the frequency and magnitude of storm surges and extreme waves over the 21st century. The model outputs were analyzed to determine the potential impacts of climate change on storm surges and wave effects at key ports and transportation assets in western Canada. The study is the first of its kind to utilize unstructured, computational models to simulate storm surges and waves for the entire western Canada coastal region, while maintaining the high spatial resolution in coastal sub-basins needed to capture local dynamic responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental sustainability in agriculture is a key component of discussions to address the current climate crisis; unfortunately, many people (including researchers) presume that only certain types of agriculture (e.g., organic, local) are environmentally sustainable. Non-farmers also fail to acknowledge that many farm practices, including grazing animals, mitigate climate change. Farmers' perceptions about environmental sustainability are important because their livelihoods, and those of future generations, depend on their commitment to sustainable environmental practices. The purpose of this qualitative research was to understand Canadian farmers' perceptions of environmental sustainability, how they are implementing strategies that contribute to sustainable food production, and the challenges they face. Fifty-two farmers, representing 48 farms and over 1000 years of farming experience, participated in comprehensive in-depth interviews. Four farms were in British Columbia; 13 in the Prairies; 26 in Central Canada; and five in Eastern Canada. A wide variety of farm types (e.g., fruit/vegetables, livestock, grains) and sizes (2 to 6500 acres) were included in the study. Farmers' perceptions of environmental sustainability coalesced into four main themes: (1) definitions of sustainability and environmental sustainability, (2) current practices, (3) farming as an identity, and (4) challenges. Many participants explained that they already use sustainable practices and technology, contrary to prevailing opinion that entire food systems need to be transformed to be sustainable. As new agricultural policies and educational curricula are developed, information provided to students, policy makers, and the public must be accurate, balanced, evidence-based, and respectfully consider all perspectives, especially those of farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada has undertaken key commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increase adaptation and climate resilience, and realign financial flows, particularly in the country's three successive Nationally Determined Contributions ('NDCs') to the global response to climate change under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Canada and the European Union ('EU') have also launched a new trade agreement, the Canada - EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement ('CETA'), which recognizes that economic development, social development and environmental protection are interdependent and mutually reinforcing components of sustainable development and reaffirms both Canadian and European commitments to promoting trade that contributes to sustainable development for the welfare of present and future generations. In this brief article, several ways in which CETA might contribute to the achievement of Canada's NDC are canvassed. The article discusses whether over time, CETA implementation will clearly commit to climate action and other sustainable development objectives; avoid constraining key laws and policies needed for climate action; intensify cooperation to limit temperature increases, increase the ability to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change, foster climate resilience and lowGHGemissions development and make finance flows consistent with sustainable development; and enhance trade in more climate and nature positive, sustainable goods and services. If so, the article suggests, CETA has the potential to foster rather than frustrate the Parties' commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement, and their work to advance the global Sustainable Development Goals ('SDGs'). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable, long-term records of glacier mass change are invaluable to the glaciological and climate-change communities and used to assess the importance of glacier wastage on streamflow. Here we evaluate the in-situ observations of glacier mass change for Place (1982–2020) and Peyto glaciers (1983–2020) in western Canada. We use geodetic mass balance to calibrate a physically-based mass-balance model coupled with an ice dynamics routine. We find large discrepancies between the glaciological and geodetic records for the periods 1987–1993 (Place) and 2001–2006 (Peyto). Over the period of observations, the exclusion of ice dynamics in the model increased simulated cumulative mass change by ~10.6 (24%) and 7.1 (21%) m w.e. for Place and Peyto glacier, respectively. Cumulative mass loss using geodetic, modelled and glaciological approaches are respectively − 30.5 ± 4.5, − 32.0 ± 3.6, − 29.7 ± 3.6 m w.e. for Peyto Glacier (1982–2017) and − 45.9 ± 5.2, − 43.1 ± 3.1, − 38.4 ± 5.1 m w.e. for Place Glacier (1981–2019). Based on discrepancies noted in the mass-balance records for certain decades (e.g. 1990s), we caution the community if these data are to be used for hydrological model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change threatens northern permafrost environments. This compromises the existence of permafrost landforms, such as palsas and peat plateaus, which have been assessed to be critically endangered habitats. In this study, we integrated geospatial datasets and statistical methods to model the suitable environments for palsas and peat plateaus across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region. The models were calibrated using data from years 1950–2000. The effects of climate change on the suitable environments for the landforms were assessed by using low-, moderate-, and high-emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively) for two periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Hotspots for palsa and peat plateau environments occurred in northern Europe, western Siberia, and subarctic Canada. Climate change was predicted to cause an almost complete loss (decrease of 98.2 %) of suitable environmental spaces under the high-emissions scenario by 2061–2080, while under low- and moderate-emissions scenarios the predicted loss was 76.3 % and 89.3 % respectively. Our modeling results are in line with previously published thermokarst data pointing out areas of recent degradation of palsa and peat plateau environments. Our results provide new insights into the distribution of the permafrost landforms in less studied areas such as central and eastern Siberia. In addition, the predictions provide new understanding of the changing geoecological conditions of the circumpolar region with important implications for greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During a time of rapid urban growth and development, it is becoming ever more important to monitor the carbon fluxes of our cities. Unlike Canada's commercially managed forests that have a long history of inventory and modelling tools, there is both a lack of coordinated data and considerable uncertainty on assessment procedures for urban forest carbon. Nonetheless, independent studies have been carried out across Canada. To improve upon Canada's federal government reporting on carbon storage and sequestration by urban forests, this study builds on existing data to develop an updated assessment of carbon storage and sequestration for Canada's urban forests. Using canopy cover estimates derived from ortho-imagery and satellite imagery ranging from 2008 to 2012 and field-based urban forest inventory and assessment data from 16 Canadian cities and one US city, this study found that Canadian urban forests store approximately 27,297.8 kt C (− 37%, + 45%) in above and belowground biomass and sequester approximately 1497.7 kt C year−1 (− 26%, + 28%). In comparison with the previous national assessment of urban forest carbon, this study suggested that in urban areas carbon storage has been overestimated and carbon sequestration has been underestimated. Maximizing urban forest carbon sinks will contribute to Canada's mitigation efforts and, while being a smaller carbon sink compared to commercial forests, will also provide important ecosystem services and co-benefits to approximately 83% of Canadian people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Rising temperatures due to climate change can significantly impact the freeze–thaw condition of airport pavements in cold regions. This case study investigates the implications of warming temperatures on the freeze–thaw penetration and frost heave of pavements in critical airports across Canada. To this end, different methods were used in the quantification process through climate change simulations considering emission scenario RCP8.5 in 20 and 40 year time horizons. The results show that climate change would have different design implications for airport pavements, depending on their location. The predictions suggest a shallower frost penetration depth, and possibly less frost heave, for the airports not underlain by permafrost, while airports over permafrost areas might experience an increase in thickness of the active layer, ranging from 41 to 57 percent, by 2061. Among the different methods used in this study, it was observed that some methods performed better in predicting the frost depth of fine soils, while others worked better in the frost depth prediction of coarse soils. The results indicate the need for more mechanistic models to provide a more realistic prediction of freeze–thaw penetration, as compared to existing empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many tree species distribution models use black‐box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximizing predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species. Location: Continental United States and Canada. Methods: We develop an innovative procedure using regression trees by stabilizing variance, and mapping dominant rules which we term 'optimized regression tree bagging for interpretation and mapping' (ORTBIM). We apply this technique to understand ecological features influencing the abundance patterns of three eastern (Pinus strobus, Acer saccharum and Quercus montana), and three western (Picea engelmannii, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree species in North America. For these species, we assess and map the dominant climate–terrain interactions that partly determine abundance patterns in the eastern and western regions. In the process, we examine the role of varying responses and scales and explore finer‐scale species climate–terrain niches and non‐linear relationships. Results: Our study emphasizes the prominent role of elevation and heat–moisture variables in the west and the greater importance of seasonal precipitation and seasonal temperature in the east. The abundance patterns under future climate (SSP5‐8.5) show climate–terrain habitats shifting northward and westward into Canada and Alaska for the eastern species, and predominantly north‐westward for the western species. Conclusion: Our interpretative modelling framework can be used to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the abundance patterns across the full species range, formulate better predictive models and facilitate improved management practices under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant functional types (PFTs) are used to represent vegetation distribution in land surface models (LSMs). Previous studies have shown large differences in the geographical distribution of PFTs currently used in various LSMs, which may arise from the differences in the underlying land cover products but also the methods used to map or reclassify land cover data to the PFTs that a given LSM represents. There are large uncertainties associated with existing PFT mapping methods since they are largely based on expert judgement and therefore are subjective. In this study, we propose a new approach to inform the mapping or the cross-walking process using analyses from sub-pixel fractional error matrices, which allows for a quantitative assessment of the fractional composition of the land cover categories in a dataset. We use the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) land cover product produced by the European Space Agency (ESA). Previous work has shown that compared to fine-resolution maps over Canada, the ESA-CCI product provides an improved land cover distribution compared to that from the GLC2000 dataset currently used in the CLASSIC (Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles) model. A tree cover fraction dataset and a fine-resolution land cover map over Canada are used to compute the sub-pixel fractional composition of the land cover classes in ESA-CCI, which is then used to create a cross-walking table for mapping the ESA-CCI land cover categories to nine PFTs represented in the CLASSIC model. There are large differences between the new PFT distributions and those currently used in the model. Offline simulations performed with the CLASSIC model using the ESA-CCI-based PFTs show improved winter albedo compared to that based on the GLC2000 dataset. This emphasizes the importance of accurate representation of vegetation distribution for realistic simulation of surface albedo in LSMs. Results in this study suggest that the sub-pixel fractional composition analyses are an effective way to reduce uncertainties in the PFT mapping process and therefore, to some extent, objectify the otherwise subjective process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this literature review was to compile research findings on climate change and its impacts on crop production in Prairie Provinces of Canada. Our search strategy included finding primary literature articles from various databases. Seven articles reported increases in average and minimum air temperature over time in the Prairie Provinces of Canada. Increases in maximum air temperature were smaller than that forminimum air temperature. Growing degree days and corn heat units also increased over time, which has allowed for potential expansion of corn growth northwards. While overall increases in average annual precipitation and growing season precipitation have occurred in Canada between 1900 and 2021, western Canada showed increases in some regions but decreases in others. Off-season precipitation and snow cover duration in Canada have decreased since 1950. The number of frost-free days has increased across Canada, on the Prairies and southern Saskatchewan since 1900. Annual snowfall has decreased since 1950 and across Canada the annual maximum snow depth has also decreased. Overall, studies focusing on the Prairie Provinces in Canada have shown accelerated changes in several climate parameters over time, affecting cropping areas and crop yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper approaches the intertwining crises of capitalism and climate change from an ecological political economy (EPE) perspective in order to highlight the fundamentally unsustainable character of Canada's contemporary relations of mobility and the possibilities for socio-ecological change. An important component of the nation's broader social relations, the 'relations of mobility' refer to the material and subjective systems governing how Canadian transport infrastructure is produced and how and why people and things move from one place to another. Unfortunately, the capitalist state has played a pivotal role in structuring these relations and as such it has little interest in significantly changing them. This highlights the need for a genuinely democratic, anti-capitalist politics aimed at obtaining power at the level of the 'state' - municipally, provincially, and federally - in order to change the relations of mobility for the better. This paper thus has three objectives falling under the rubric of EPE: First, it demonstrates how Canada's contemporary relations of mobility negatively impact the natural environment. Second, it historicizes the unsustainable origins of such relations within Canada's political economic structure, showing how the neoliberal capitalist state in particular is 'uninterested', 'unwilling' or 'incapable' of altering them. Finally, it makes a normative argument for the mobilization of a democratic, anti-capitalist politics as a means of confronting the unsustainable character of Canada's present relations of mobility and social relations more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calibration and validation of hydrological models is a challenge, particularly in remote regions that are minimally gauged. This paper develops a novel methodology for large-scale (>1000 km2) hydrological model calibration and validation using stable water isotopes founded on the rigorous constraints imposed by the need to conserve both water mass and stable isotopes simultaneously. The isoWATFLOOD model is applied to five basins within the Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories region of northern Canada to simulate stream discharge and oxygen-18 signals over a 3-year period. The isotopic variation of river discharge, runoff components, and evaporative fractionation are successfully simulated on both a seasonal and continual basis over the watershed domain to demonstrate the application of isotope tracers to regional hydrologic calibration. The intended application of this research is to remote, large-scale basins, showing promise for improving predictions in minimally gauged basins and climate change research where traditional, rigorous approaches to constraining parameter uncertainty may be impractical. This coupled isotope-hydrological (i.e. iso-hydrological) approach to modelling reduces the number of possible parameterizations, resulting in potentially more physically-based hydrological predictions. isoWATFLOOD provides a tool for water resource managers and utilities to use operationally for water use, allocation, and runoff generation estimations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal zone and its ecosystems provide numerous provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services. Because of its resources and its hydroelectric potential, Canada's boreal zone is important to the country's resource-based economy. The region presently occupied by Canada's boreal zone has experienced dramatic changes during the past 3 million years as the climate cooled and repeated glaciations affected both the biota and the landscape. For about the past 7000 years, climate, fire, insects, diseases, and their interactions have been the most important natural drivers of boreal ecosystem dynamics, including rejuvenation, biogeochemical cycling, maintenance of productivity, and landscape variability. Layered upon natural drivers are changes increasingly caused by people and development and those related to human-caused climate change. Effects of these agents vary spatially and temporally, and, as global population increases, the demands and impacts on ecosystems will likely increase. Understanding how humans directly affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Canada's boreal zone and how these effects and actions interact with natural disturbance agents is a prerequisite for informed and adaptive decisions about management of natural resources, while maintaining the economy and environment upon which humans depend. This paper reports on the genesis and present condition of the boreal zone and its ecosystems and sets the context for a detailed scientific investigation in subsequent papers published in this journal on several key aspects: carbon in boreal forests; climate change consequences, adaptation, and mitigation; nutrient and elemental cycling; protected areas; status, impacts, and risks of non-native species; factors affecting sustainable timber harvest levels; terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity; and water and wetland resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares three existing Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) formulations for simulating summer moisture variability in western Canada and a preliminary analysis of climate change impacts on summer moisture anomalies. The three models considered are Palmer's original algorithm (orPDSI), the self-calibrating PDSI (scPDSI), and a version modified for Canadian Prairie conditions (cpPDSI). In all formulations, potential evapotranspiration was parameterized by the Penman-Monteith method instead of the traditional Thornthwaite method. The scPDSI was used as a benchmark for evaluation as it is more appropriate for comparing drought severity of diverse climates. The results confirm that orPDSI produces inflated drought statistics as compared to scPDSI, whereas cpPDSI produced more conservative drought statistics than scPDSI. On the basis of results from scPDSI, historical moisture availability in the Canadian Prairies has shown a significant downward trend since 1950 at the 5% level, whereas southern British Columbia has shown a significant increasing trend. No discernible trend was found in the northern parts of the study area. These results were corroborated by trends in annual precipitation and summer temperature over the respective regions. When scPDSI parameters were calibrated using historical climate data, simulations for the 2050s using climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) showed increases in summer moisture deficit relative to the 1961-90 baseline. However, projecting the extent to which the frequency of extreme drought and/or wet spell categories will change is not trivial since the computation of scPDSI is tied to the definition of the frequency of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from large industries the Canadian government proposed using a tradable emissions performance standard approach, where the intensity of emissions, rather than the absolute level, is regulated. Unlike a cap and trade system, an emissions performance standard does not guarantee a certain overall level of emission reductions, a fact that has led to significant criticism. However, because of the dynamics of performance standards, they may reduce concerns over reductions in international competitiveness in cases where a country has climate policies that are more aggressive than those of some of its trade partners. Likewise, a performance standard may mesh more efficiently with existing taxes and therefore cause less overall economic impact than an absolute cap and trade system. This paper considers the theoretical arguments for and against such a performance standard system and evaluates it in comparison to a cap and trade system using a dynamic general equilibrium model applied to Canada.

Despite widespread calls to action from the scientific community and beyond, a concerning climate action gap exists. This paper aims to enhance our understanding of the role of connectedness to nature in promoting individual-level climate action in a unique setting where climate research and action are lacking: Canada's Provincial North. To begin to understand possible pathways, we also examined whether climate worry and talking about climate change with family and friends mediate the relationship between connectedness to nature and climate action. We used data collected via postal surveys in two Provincial North communities, Thunder Bay (Ontario), and Prince George (British Columbia) (n = 628). Results show that connectedness to nature has a direct positive association with individual-level climate action, controlling for gender and education. Results of parallel mediation analyses further show that connectedness to nature is indirectly associated with individual-level climate action, mediated by both climate worry and talking about climate change with family and friends. Finally, results suggest that climate worry and talking about climate change with family and friends serially mediate the relationship between connectedness to nature and with individual-level climate action. These findings are relevant for climate change engagement and action, especially across Canada's Provincial North, but also in similar settings characterized by marginalization, heightened vulnerability to climate change, urban islands within vast rural and remote landscapes, and economies and social identities tied to resource extraction. Drawing on these findings, we argue that cultivating stronger connections with nature in the places where people live, learn, work, and play is an important and currently underutilized leverage point for promoting individual-level climate action. This study therefore adds to the current and increasingly relevant calls for (re-)connecting with nature that have been made by others across a range of disciplinary and sectoral divides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Typically framed as an environmental issue, some suggest this view has contributed to public ambivalence and hence a lack of public engagement. The lack of understanding of climate change as a significant environmental health risk on the part of the lay public represents a significant barrier to behaviour change. We therefore need to think about reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a health issue. This paper builds on calls for increased understanding of the public's views of human health risks associated with climate change, focusing on facilitators and barriers to behaviour change. Methods: Semi-structured in-depth interviews (n = 22) with residents of the Golden Horseshoe region of Southern Ontario were conducted between August 2010 and January 2011. Topics included individual and community health, climate change, and facilitators and barriers to behaviour change. Results: Few participants recognized the role of the environment in the context of either individual and community health. When asked about health concerns specific to their community, however, environmental issues were mentioned frequently. Health effects as possible impacts of global environmental change were mentioned by 77% of participants when prompted, but this link was not described in great detail or within the context of impacting their communities or themselves. Participants were willing to act in environmentally friendly ways, and possible incentives to undertake behaviour change such as decreasing cost were described. Health co-benefits were not identified as incentives to engaging in mitigative or adaptive behaviours. Conclusions: The results support recent calls for reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a public health issue in order to increase public engagement in adaptive and mitigative behaviour change. While previous research has touched on public awareness of the human health risks of climate change, we have further explored the attitude-action link through the examination of facilitators and barriers to behaviour change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and intensity in determining greenhouse gas emissions. This is followed by the presentation of several macroeconomic scenarios using LowGrow, a simulation model of the Canadian economy. The scenarios considered are ‘business as usual’ which is a projection into the future of past trends, ‘selective growth’ in which differential growth rates are applied to parts of the economy according to their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and ‘degrowth’ where the average GDP/capita of Canadians is reduced towards a level more consistent with a world economy the size of which respects global environmental limits. The paper ends with a comparison of the scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents results from a survey on attitudes toward climate change in Alberta, Canada, home to just 10% of Canada's population, but the source of 35% of the country's greenhouse-gas emissions (Environment Canada ). Results show high levels of awareness, but much lower levels of perceived climate change impacts for one's self or region. Women expressed significantly greater awareness and sense of perceived impacts about climate change than men; however, gender differences appear predominantly associated with socioeconomic factors. Indeed, in all, political ideology had the strongest predictive value, with individuals voting for the conservative party significantly less likely to anticipate significant societal climate change impacts. This finding, in turn, is strongly associated with beliefs regarding whether climate change is human induced. Particularly notable is the finding that the gender gap in climate change beliefs and perceived impacts is not attributed to gendered social roles, as indicated by occupational and familial status. Instead, gender distinctions appear to be related to the lower tendency for women to ascribe to a conservative political ideology relative to men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]