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Plant-plant interactions may critically modify the impact of climate change on plant communities. However, the magnitude and even direction of potential future interactions remains highly debated, especially for water-limited ecosystems. Predictions range from increasing facilitation to increasing competition with future aridification., The different methodologies used for assessing plant-plant interactions under changing environmental conditions may affect the outcome but they are not equally represented in the literature. Mechanistic experimental manipulations are rare compared with correlative approaches that infer future patterns from current observations along spatial climatic gradients., Here, we utilize a unique climatic gradient in combination with a large-scale, long-term experiment to test whether predictions about plant-plant interactions yield similar results when using experimental manipulations, spatial gradients or temporal variation. We assessed shrub-annual interactions in three different sites along a natural rainfall gradient (spatial) during 9 years of varying rainfall (temporal) and 8 years of dry and wet manipulations of ambient rainfall (experimental) that closely mimicked regional climate scenarios., The results were fundamentally different among all three approaches. Experimental water manipulations hardly altered shrub effects on annual plant communities for the assessed fitness parameters biomass and survival. Along the spatial gradient, shrub effects shifted from clearly negative to mildly facilitative towards drier sites, whereas temporal variation showed the opposite trend: more negative shrub effects in drier years., Based on our experimental approach, we conclude that shrub-annual interaction will remain similar under climate change. In contrast, the commonly applied space-for-time approach based on spatial gradients would have suggested increasing facilitative effects with climate change. We discuss potential mechanisms governing the differences among the three approaches., Our study highlights the critical importance of long-term experimental manipulations for evaluating climate change impacts. Correlative approaches, for example along spatial or temporal gradients, may be misleading and overestimate the response of plant-plant interactions to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defining species by their climatic niche is the simple and intuitive principle underlying Bioclimatic Envelope Model (BEM) predictions for climate change effects. However, these correlative models are often criticised for neglecting many ecological processes. Here, we apply the same niche principle to entire communities within a medium/long-term climate manipulation study, where ecological processes are inherently included. In a nine generation study in Israel, we manipulated rainfall (Drought −30%; Irrigation +30%; Control natural rainfall) at two sites which differ chiefly in rainfall quantity and variability. We analysed community responses to the manipulations by grouping species based on their climatic rainfall niche. These responses were compared to analyses based on single species, total densities, and commonly used taxonomic groupings. Climate Niche Groups yielded clear and consistent results: within communities, those species distributed in drier regions performed relatively better in the drought treatment, and those from wetter climates performed better when irrigated. In contrast, analyses based on other principles revealed little insight into community dynamics. Notably, most relationships were weaker at the drier, more variable site, suggesting that enhanced adaptation to variability may buffer climate change impacts. We provide robust experimental evidence that using climatic niches – commonly applied in BEMs – is a valid approach for eliciting community changes in response to climate change. However, we also argue that additional empirical information needs to be gathered using experiments in situ to correctly assess community vulnerability. Climatic Niche Groups used in this way, may therefore provide a powerful tool and directional testing framework to generalise and compare climate change impacts across habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting responses of plant communities to environmental changes is a key challenge in ecology. Here we examined climate-related mechanisms regulating seedling dynamics of a common Mediterranean shrub. Our objective was to analyze effects of water availability on seedling survival and to determine whether geographical gradients can serve as proxy for predicting local climate change effects. We conducted a field experiment along a natural rainfall gradient with additional long-term rainfall manipulations at a Mediterranean site, enabling the investigation of the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors on seedling dynamics. Along the natural and artificial rainfall gradient seedling survival increased with increasing soil water availability. However, seedling survival at the Mediterranean site yielded a clear trend of decreasing seedling survival with artificially increasing aridity whereas at the dry end of the geographical gradient seedling survival was relatively high. We attribute this pattern to biotic interactions, which appeared less negative at the dry end. These findings indicate that ignoring biotic interactions is misleading when predicting shifts in the distribution of species under climate change and that because of the complex interplay between abiotic and biotic factors, environmental gradients can be poor proxies for predicting the response of plant species to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]