Search

Recent economic research documents a range of adverse welfare consequences from extreme heat stress, including health, labor productivity, and direct consumption disutility impacts. Without rapid adaptation, climate change will increase the burden of heat stress experienced by much of the world’s population in the coming decades. What will the distributional consequences of this added heat stress be, and how might this affect optimal climate policy? Using detailed survey data of household wealth in 690,745 households across 52 countries, this paper finds evidence suggesting that the welfare impacts of added heat stress caused by climate change may be regressive. Specifically, the analysis finds that poorer households tend to be located in hotter locations across and within countries, and poorer individuals are more likely to work in occupations with greater exposure to the elements not only across but also within countries. These findings—combined with the fact that current social cost of carbon estimates do not include climate damages arising from the productivity impacts of heat stress—suggest that optimal climate policy, especially when allowing for declining marginal utility of consumption, involves more stringent abatement than currently suggested, and that redistributive adaptation policies may be required to reduce the mechanical inequities in welfare impacts arising from climate change.

This report presents the water and climate adaptation plan (WATCAP) developed for the Sava river basin (SRB) as result of a study undertaken by the World Bank. The WATCAP is intended to help to bridge the gap between the climate change predictions for the SRB and the decision makers in current and planned water management investment projects that will be affected by changing climate trends. The purpose of the report is to: (i) assist stakeholders and decision makers in assessing and planning for the risks generated by climate change impacts on water resources; (ii) provide a basis for future plans and studies of adaptation to climate change impacts in the SRB; and (iii) stimulate cooperation and debate across the basin toward additional and more detailed studies on climate change impacts at the regional and basin scale. The SRB is projected to experience small increases in water use by the public water supply, industry, energy, and agricultural and irrigation sectors. However, it is widely expected that new hydropower plants (HPPs) will be constructed in the near future, making energy (primarily through hydropower) the most important water use in the SRB.

This study was jointly undertaken by the Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, and the World Bank. This study had two broad objectives: (1) to assess national vulnerability and impact on major diseases of increased climate variability and extreme events in Bangladesh; and (2) to assess existing institutional and implementation capacity, financial resources at the local level, and existing public programs targeted at climate-sensitive diseases.

This paper identifies key challenges and solutions for carrying out project-level economic analysis of adaptation to climate change, both stand-alone and integrated into broader development projects. Very few projects addressing adaptation thus far have been subject to in-depth and rigorous economic analysis for a variety of reasons, including a lack of guidance on how to deal with assessments of the impacts of climate change, as well as with estimating costs and benefits of adaptation under uncertainty. The paper focus is on the agricultural sector, where the impacts of climate change have the potential to disrupt the livelihoods of rural populations in many regions and where adaptation must be given urgent consideration. Nevertheless, some of the approaches discussed are suitable to projects in other sectors as well. Finally, robust decision making (RDM) can provide an alternative quantitative decision analytic method that avoids subjective probability assessments and scenario predictions. RDM creates hundreds or thousands of plausible futures, in the judgment of the analyst, that are then used to systematically evaluate the performance of alternative actions. This approach facilitates identifying the set of conditions under which any particular alternative adaptation performs well or poorly, according to various evaluation criteria based on the decision maker's judgment. The decision maker can identify 'robust' alternatives that, compared to other alternatives, perform reasonably well across a wide range of plausible futures.