1. Predicting Kidney Failure, Cardiovascular Disease and Death in Advanced CKD Patients
- Author
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Chava L. Ramspek, Rosemarijn Boekee, Marie Evans, Olof Heimburger, Charlotte M. Snead, Fergus J. Caskey, Claudia Torino, Gaetana Porto, Maciej Szymczak, Magdalena Krajewska, Christiane Drechsler, Christoph Wanner, Nicholas C. Chesnaye, Kitty J. Jager, Friedo W. Dekker, Maarten G.J. Snoeijs, Joris I. Rotmans, Merel van Diepen, Adamasco Cupisti, Adelia Sagliocca, Alberto Ferraro, Aleksandra Musiała, Alessandra Mele, Alessandro Naticchia, Alex Còsaro, Alistair Woodman, Andrea Ranghino, Andrea Stucchi, Andreas Jonsson, Andreas Schneider, Angelo Pignataro, Anita Schrander, Anke Torp, Anna McKeever, Anna Szymczak, Anna-Lena Blom, Antonella De Blasio, Antonello Pani, Aris Tsalouichos, Asad Ullah, Barbara McLaren, Bastiaan van Dam, Beate Iwig, Bellasi Antonio, Biagio Raffaele Di Iorio, Björn Rogland, Boris Perras, Butti Alessandra, Camille Harron, Carin Wallquist, Carl Siegert, Carla Barrett, Carlo Gaillard, Carlo Garofalo, Cataldo Abaterusso, Charles Beerenhout, Charlotte O'Toole, Chiara Somma, Christian Marx, Christina Summersgill, Christof Blaser, Claudia D'alessandro, Claudia Emde, Claudia Zullo, Claudio Pozzi, Colin Geddes, Cornelis Verburgh, Daniela Bergamo, Daniele Ciurlino, Daria Motta, Deborah Glowski, Deborah McGlynn, Denes Vargas, Detlef Krieter, Domenico Russo, Dunja Fuchs, Dympna Sands, Ellen Hoogeveen, Ellen Irmler, Emöke Dimény, Enrico Favaro, Eva Platen, Ewelina Olczyk, Ewout Hoorn, Federica Vigotti, Ferruccio Ansali, Ferruccio Conte, Francesca Cianciotta, Francesca Giacchino, Francesco Cappellaio, Francesco Pizzarelli, Fredrik Sundelin, Fredrik Uhlin, Gaetano Greco, Geena Roy, Giada Bigatti, Giancarlo Marinangeli, Gianfranca Cabiddu, Gillian Hirst, Giordano Fumagalli, Giorgia Caloro, Giorgina Piccoli, Giovanbattista Capasso, Giovanni Gambaro, Giuliana Tognarelli, Giuseppe Bonforte, Giuseppe Conte, Giuseppe Toscano, Goffredo Del Rosso, Gunilla Welander, Hanna Augustyniak-Bartosik, Hans Boots, Hans Schmidt-Gürtler, Hayley King, Helen McNally, Hendrik Schlee, Henk Boom, Holger Naujoks, Houda Masri-Senghor, Hugh Murtagh, Hugh Rayner, Ilona Miśkowiec-Wiśniewska, Ines Schlee, Irene Capizzi, Isabel Bascaran Hernandez, Ivano Baragetti, Jacek Manitius, Jane Turner, Jan-Willem Eijgenraam, Jeroen Kooman, Joachim Beige, Joanna Pondel, Joanne Wilcox, Jocelyn Berdeprado, Jochen Röthele, Jonathan Wong, Joris Rotmans, Joyce Banda, Justyna Mazur, Kai Hahn, Kamila Jędrzejak, Katarzyna Nowańska, Katja Blouin, Katrin Neumeier, Kirsteen Jones, Kirsten Anding-Rost, Knut-Christian Gröntoft, Lamberto Oldrizzi, Lesley Haydock, Liffert Vogt, Lily Wilkinson, Loreto Gesualdo, Lothar Schramm, Luigi Biancone, Łukasz Nowak, Maarten Raasveld, Magdalena Durlik, Manuela Magnano, Marc Vervloet, Marco Ricardi, Margaret Carmody, Maria Di Bari, Maria Laudato, Maria Luisa Sirico, Maria Stendahl, Maria Svensson, Maria Weetman, Marjolijn van Buren, Martin Joinson, Martina Ferraresi, Mary Dutton, Michael Matthews, Michele Provenzano, Monika Hopf, Moreno Malaguti, Nadja Wuttke, Neal Morgan, Nicola Palmieri, Nikolaus Frischmuth, Nina Bleakley, Paola Murrone, Paul Cockwell, Paul Leurs, Paul Roderick, Pauline Voskamp, Pavlos Kashioulis, Pawlos Ichtiaris, Peter Blankestijn, Petra Kirste, Petra Schulz, Phil Mason, Philip Kalra, Pietro Cirillo, Pietro Dattolo, Pina Acampora, Rincy Sajith, Rita Nigro, Roberto Boero, Roberto Scarpioni, Rosa Sicoli, Rosella Malandra, Sabine Aign, Sabine Cäsar, Sadie van Esch, Sally Chapman, Sandra Biribauer, Santee Navjee, Sarah Crosbie, Sharon Brown, Sheila Tickle, Sherin Manan, Silke Röser, Silvana Savoldi, Silvio Bertoli, Silvio Borrelli, Siska Boorsma, Stefan Heidenreich, Stefan Melander, Stefania Maxia, Stefano Maffei, Stefano Mangano, Stephanie Palm, Stijn Konings, Suresh Mathavakkannan, Susanne Schwedler, Sylke Delrieux, Sylvia Renker, Sylvia Schättel, Szyszkowska Dorota, Teresa Cicchetti, Teresa Nieszporek, Theresa Stephan, Thomas Schmiedeke, Thomas Weinreich, Til Leimbach, Tiziana Rappa, Tora Almquist, Torsten Stövesand, Udo Bahner, Ulrika Jensen, Valentina Palazzo, Walter De Simone, Wolfgang Seeger, Ying Kuan, Zbigniew Heleniak, Zeynep Aydin, Vascular Surgery, MUMC+: MA Med Staf Spec Vaatchirurgie (9), RS: Carim - V03 Regenerative and reconstructive medicine vascular disease, Ramspek, C. L., Boekee, R., Evans, M., Heimburger, O., Snead, C. M., Caskey, F. J., Torino, C., Porto, G., Szymczak, M., Krajewska, M., Drechsler, C., Wanner, C., Chesnaye, N. C., Jager, K. J., Dekker, F. W., Snoeijs, M. G. J., Rotmans, J. I., van Diepen, M., Cupisti, A., Sagliocca, A., Ferraro, A., Musiala, A., Mele, A., Naticchia, A., Cosaro, A., Woodman, A., Ranghino, A., Stucchi, A., Jonsson, A., Schneider, A., Pignataro, A., Schrander, A., Torp, A., Mckeever, A., Szymczak, A., Blom, A. -L., De Blasio, A., Pani, A., Tsalouichos, A., Ullah, A., Mclaren, B., van Dam, B., Iwig, B., Antonio, B., Di Iorio, B. R., Rogland, B., Perras, B., Alessandra, B., Harron, C., Wallquist, C., Siegert, C., Barrett, C., Gaillard, C., Garofalo, C., Abaterusso, C., Beerenhout, C., O'Toole, C., Somma, C., Marx, C., Summersgill, C., Blaser, C., D'Alessandro, C., Emde, C., Zullo, C., Pozzi, C., Geddes, C., Verburgh, C., Bergamo, D., Ciurlino, D., Motta, D., Glowski, D., Mcglynn, D., Vargas, D., Krieter, D., Russo, D., Fuchs, D., Sands, D., Hoogeveen, E., Irmler, E., Dimeny, E., Favaro, E., Platen, E., Olczyk, E., Hoorn, E., Vigotti, F., Ansali, F., Conte, F., Cianciotta, F., Giacchino, F., Cappellaio, F., Pizzarelli, F., Sundelin, F., Uhlin, F., Greco, G., Roy, G., Bigatti, G., Marinangeli, G., Cabiddu, G., Hirst, G., Fumagalli, G., Caloro, G., Piccoli, G., Capasso, G., Gambaro, G., Tognarelli, G., Bonforte, G., Conte, G., Toscano, G., Del Rosso, G., Welander, G., Augustyniak-Bartosik, H., Boots, H., Schmidt-Gurtler, H., King, H., Mcnally, H., Schlee, H., Boom, H., Naujoks, H., Masri-Senghor, H., Murtagh, H., Rayner, H., Miskowiec-Wisniewska, I., Schlee, I., Capizzi, I., Hernandez, I. B., Baragetti, I., Manitius, J., Turner, J., Eijgenraam, J. -W., Kooman, J., Beige, J., Pondel, J., Wilcox, J., Berdeprado, J., Rothele, J., Wong, J., Rotmans, J., Banda, J., Mazur, J., Hahn, K., Jedrzejak, K., Nowanska, K., Blouin, K., Neumeier, K., Jones, K., Anding-Rost, K., Grontoft, K. -C., Oldrizzi, L., Haydock, L., Vogt, L., Wilkinson, L., Gesualdo, L., Schramm, L., Biancone, L., Nowak, L., Raasveld, M., Durlik, M., Magnano, M., Vervloet, M., Ricardi, M., Carmody, M., Di Bari, M., Laudato, M., Sirico, M. L., Stendahl, M., Svensson, M., Weetman, M., van Buren, M., Joinson, M., Ferraresi, M., Dutton, M., Matthews, M., Provenzano, M., Hopf, M., Malaguti, M., Wuttke, N., Morgan, N., Palmieri, N., Frischmuth, N., Bleakley, N., Murrone, P., Cockwell, P., Leurs, P., Roderick, P., Voskamp, P., Kashioulis, P., Ichtiaris, P., Blankestijn, P., Kirste, P., Schulz, P., Mason, P., Kalra, P., Cirillo, P., Dattolo, P., Acampora, P., Sajith, R., Nigro, R., Boero, R., Scarpioni, R., Sicoli, R., Malandra, R., Aign, S., Casar, S., van Esch, S., Chapman, S., Biribauer, S., Navjee, S., Crosbie, S., Brown, S., Tickle, S., Manan, S., Roser, S., Savoldi, S., Bertoli, S., Borrelli, S., Boorsma, S., Heidenreich, S., Melander, S., Maxia, S., Maffei, S., Mangano, S., Palm, S., Konings, S., Mathavakkannan, S., Schwedler, S., Delrieux, S., Renker, S., Schattel, S., Dorota, S., Cicchetti, T., Nieszporek, T., Stephan, T., Schmiedeke, T., Weinreich, T., Leimbach, T., Rappa, T., Almquist, T., Stovesand, T., Bahner, U., Jensen, U., Palazzo, V., De Simone, W., Seeger, W., Kuan, Y., Heleniak, Z., Aydin, Z., Medical Informatics, APH - Aging & Later Life, APH - Methodology, APH - Quality of Care, Nephrology, ACS - Microcirculation, APH - Health Behaviors & Chronic Diseases, APH - Global Health, ACS - Pulmonary hypertension & thrombosis, ACS - Diabetes & metabolism, and Internal Medicine
- Subjects
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being ,external validation ,Nephrology ,cardiovascular disease ,death ,CKD ,kidney failure ,prognostic model - Abstract
Introduction: Predicting the timing and occurrence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), cardiovascular events, and death among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) is clinically useful and relevant. We aimed to externally validate a recently developed CKD G4+ risk calculator for these outcomes and to assess its potential clinical impact in guiding vascular access placement. Methods: We included 1517 patients from the European Quality (EQUAL) study, a European multicentre prospective cohort study of nephrology-referred advanced CKD patients aged ≥65 years. Model performance was assessed based on discrimination and calibration. Potential clinical utility for timing of referral for vascular access placement was studied with diagnostic measures and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The model showed a good discrimination for KRT and “death after KRT,” with 2-year concordance (C) statistics of 0.74 and 0.76, respectively. Discrimination for cardiovascular events (2-year C-statistic: 0.70) and overall death (2-year C-statistic: 0.61) was poorer. Calibration was fairly accurate. Decision curves illustrated that using the model to guide vascular access referral would generally lead to less unused arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) than following estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) thresholds. Conclusion: This study shows moderate to good predictive performance of the model in an older cohort of nephrology-referred patients with advanced CKD. Using the model to guide referral for vascular access placement has potential in combating unnecessary vascular surgeries.
- Published
- 2022
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