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Background: According to the 2019 Global Competitiveness Index (CGI) by the World Economic Forum, the infrastructure growth of Indonesia is placed on number 72 out of 141 countries and ranked 5th in the ASEAN countries. The growth of infrastructure in Indonesia is a result of the imbalance increase of developments of 10-55% annually with only a 1.9% annual increase in road length. There was a delay of 11.95%, with the high investment in the construction of this toll road and the low-interest rate of return of around 7.79%. Objective: The expected goal in this research is to have cost and time efficiency in implementing infrastructure on the toll road project. Materials and Methods: This research is using a combination of case studies and statistical analysis; the case studies and the implementation of the M-PERT and VE on the object. Statistical analysis using simulation tools Relative Importance Index (RII) analysis based on research instruments to the success of the implementation of Manual Program Evaluation and Review Technique (M-PERT) and Value Engineering (VE) on toll road projects. Conclusion: The results of research with the analysis RII reveals that 10 important factors are affecting the performance of a project. The case study using the M-PERT method obtains a value of time accuracy of 98.87% of the real duration needed on site, while the VE method results in a revenue contribution outside of the toll income of 9.38% of the construction cost.

Despite strong interest in toll finance, the process of decision making and revenue allocation is not well understood. This study examined toll road data over 10 years, to understand how revenue was spent, and whether there were differences by governance structure. A representative sample of 60 toll roads across 20 US states was catalogued, selected based on their governance structure, centerline miles, and rate of toll increase since 2007. Archival sources were examined to identify whether/how much tolls had increased/decreased, and the question of how governance methods affected spending outcomes was addressed through interviews with staff and elected officials from four toll road authorities. The study found strong incentives toward profit in private and public–private partnership roads, but weak incentives to encourage transparency. The study identified barriers to using revenue toward expenditures intended to soften the impact of toll increases on low-income populations. This was because of debt covenants and incentives to distribute money toward new projects within an agency’s outer boundaries, thus failing to address the equity concerns that hamper public confidence in tolls as a revenue source. Nesting a toll road within a multimodal transportation authority could mitigate this, providing incentives to subsidize public transit, and taxing powers that make debt less necessary—an institutional design which could mitigate equity concerns that have hampered public acceptance of tolls as a revenue source.

Limited access facility wrong-way driving (WWD) crashes are typically more severe than other crashes. Deploying advanced WWD countermeasures, such as rectangular flashing beacon (RFB) and light-emitting diode (LED) technologies, at exit ramps can reduce WWD crashes, injuries, and fatalities. No previous research has developed a methodology to quantify the potential fatality and injury savings because of future countermeasure deployments. This paper developed such a methodology and applied it to Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise (FTE) toll road network. From 2011–2016, there were 53 FTE WWD crashes, resulting in 16 fatalities and annual injury costs of $37 million. The proportion of these crashes occurring during night-time was 87%. RFB and LED life-cycle injury savings and costs were determined for all 216 FTE exits. The total savings were $424 million for RFBs (benefit–cost [B/C] ratio of 23.20) and $144 million for LEDs (B/C ratio of 13.13). Deploying countermeasures at the 103 exits with the highest B/C ratios would provide 70% of the total possible savings by equipping 40% of the ramps. For the same capital investment, RFBs provide more savings than LEDs. Spending $1 million to deploy RFBs will provide similar savings as spending $3.4 million to deploy LEDs. Evaluating the existing FTE RFB and LED ramps shows that RFBs are more effective at night-time and can provide three times the savings of LEDs. The results of this paper show the improved performance of RFBs over LEDs and provide an example that other agencies could follow to identify savings and cost-effectively deploy advanced WWD countermeasures.

To relieve road congestion, a variety of transport demand management measures (TDM) have been implemented all over the world. The success of these measures has been found to depend at least partially on users’ perception about them. Several articles have jointly addressed the acceptability of public transport improvement (carrot policies) and road pricing (stick policies). However, these research works have not considered discounts on existing toll roads to relieve congestion on free alternative expressways. The objective of this paper is to study the combined acceptance of different congestion-calming policies at the suburban level, including the promotion of toll roads and measures to foster the use of transit. To that end, a survey was conducted among travelers on a commuting transport corridor in the region of Madrid aimed at exploring their perceptions towards four TDM measures, and a choice modeling framework was conducted. The scenarios considered are “carrot” policies, and the results of the analysis indicate that enhancing public transportation enjoys more support among respondents than toll promotions. Motorists using the free highway are more willing to use transit improvements than to opt for a toll road as an alternative regardless of the proposed toll discounts. Among the TDM measures explored, the least supported is the promotion of toll discounts associated with non-household carpooling. Furthermore, according to the results, the adoption of these TDM measures is more influenced by trip-related factors, in particular, the trip frequency and the mode of transport, than by socio-economic characteristics of the traveler. Finally, some geodemographic attributes of the residential location are also found to be statistically significant.

This study was designed to discuss the minimum distance of access and exit in terms of road safety aspects. The safety aspect reviewed is looking for the relationship between the geometric aspects of the toll road to the level of accidents that occur. Accidents that occur are divided into three categories, namely; accidents that caused the death of the world, caused injuries and total accidents. The prediction model that will be made is a comparison of the three types of accidents with the geometric aspects of the toll road. Geometric data on toll roads, traffic volumes and accidents are taken from toll roads between the cities of Jagorawi, Jakarta-Tangerang, Padaleunyi, and Palikanci. The accident level model was developed using generalized linear modeling (GLM), and calibrated using statistical techniques. Some conclusions that can be drawn are: (1) The distance between the ramp entered and ramp out has a significant coefficient value for all prediction models; (2) The minimum road distance generated for the case of a 2 lanes in the death accident model is 9000 m, for accidental injuries is 6000 m and the total accident is 5000 m; (3) The minimum road distance generated for the case of a 3 lanes in the death accident model is 9000 m, for accidental injuries is 5500 m and the total accident is 5000 m; (4) The minimum road distance generated for the case of a 4 lanes in the death accident model is 6000 m, for accidental injuries is 5000 m and the total accident is 4000 m.

The literature on public-private partnership (PPP) agreements suggests that variation renegotiation places the public sector authority at a disadvantage, because the authority has to pay ex...

In recent years, rectangular flashing beacons (RFBs) and other technologies have been used as wrong-way driving (WWD) countermeasures on limited access facilities. Studies have shown that these devices effectively reduce WWD, but no research has compared the financial benefits and costs of these countermeasures. Three different methodologies were used to conduct benefit–cost analyses for RFB WWD countermeasures installed on Central Florida toll road exit ramps. The studied benefits included savings from reductions in WWD crashes, non-crash events, and injuries, whereas costs included equipment, installation, and maintenance costs. For the first two methodologies, the reduction in WWD crash risk (WWCR) at the RFB-equipped ramps was determined. This WWCR considered non-crash WWD events, interchange design, and traffic volumes. Different measures of effectiveness (turn-around percentage of detected wrong-way vehicles at the RFB ramps and reduction in WWD 911 calls and citations at the RFB interchanges compared with similar comparison interchanges without RFBs) were used in these two methodologies to estimate the WWCR reduction and associated savings. For the third methodology, the relationship between WWD crashes and non-crash events was used to determine the average savings for WWD 911 calls and citations. Before–after analyses were then conducted to determine the individual reductions in WWD 911 calls and citations. Applying these three methods resulted in life-cycle benefit–cost ratios ranging from 2.49 to 4.10 (crash savings) and from 4.77 to 7.20 (injury savings). Other agencies could use these methodologies to determine the benefits of WWD countermeasures or other technologies with limited crash data.

We develop an econometric procedure to estimate the operational costs of toll road projects. To show its usefulness for planning future tolls, we test its predictive power on out-of-the sample observations. Thus, the rationale for the paper is that previous studies have utilized less succinct econometric frameworks to derive factors that significantly explain the operational costs of toll roads and have provided little evidence regarding the predictive power of the models used. Panel data on 33 Norwegian toll road projects observed during the period 2011–2015 are used for the purpose, resulting in a total of 165 observations. The results reveal the following: (i) Toll operations are heterogeneous, so that individual characteristics matter; ceteris paribus, this should be accounted for when estimating operational costs. (ii) The average operational cost per vehicle (AVC) processed at tolls is approximately 4 NOK (≈ US$ 0.44). (iii) The volume of vehicle throughput reduces operational costs, demonstrating the existence of scale economies; the number of lanes served increases operational costs; the use of an Open Road Toll (ORT) charging system reduces operational costs; the tendering of toll collections reduces operational costs; and the share of vehicles that use On Board Units (OBU) reduces operational costs. It is shown that the econometric model developed here has high predictive power and can be used to predict the operational costs of future tolls. These results reaffirm the results of some earlier studies but serve to warn that one should not be indifferent to the framework of analysis used, as the results may not be statistically significant and robust. The econometric framework developed here is an advance due to its predictive power.

Safety at the location of road works is an important part that is often overlooked in the construction and maintenance of roads. Management of the safety of the road work location is the responsibility of the road manager. In general, knowledge about Occupational Health and Safety (OSH) is very broad, but there are several OHS components that are considered important to be used as a benchmark for understanding OSH. These components are K3 Definition and Initiation, K3 Management System (SMK3), Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), K3 Facilities and Infrastructure, OHS Risk. Research on the influence of occupational safety and health knowledge on occupational health on construction worker behavior was carried out to determine the effect of K3 knowledge variables together on the behavior of construction workers. And to know the effect of K3 knowledge variables partially on the behavior of construction workers. From the results of the study, it can be concluded that there is a relationship or a low level of correlation between K3 Knowledge and Workers' Behavior while the value of the Determination Coefficient (adjusted r square) is 0.033, which means only 3.3% of K3 Knowledge aspects that affect Construction Worker Behavior and the remaining 96.7% is influenced by other variables. Based on the results of the T-test calculation using the method of calculation of Multiple Linear Regression the value of t count t table, there is no significant effect of K3 knowledge variables (Definition and Initiation, Management Systems, Personal Protective Equipment, Facilities and Infrastructure, Risk) jointly towards Construction Worker Behavior on the Toll Road Development Project.

Even though no toll road project delivery alternative is perfect in handling the variability of project characteristics, a specific delivery approach is better suited than another based on ...

This paper provides insight into how variations in Level of Service (LoS) of a toll road, socio-economic attributes, and latent factors simultaneously affect residential location, route, and mode choices across population segments in the Jakarta – Bandung region in Indonesia. Three discrete choice models were developed based on a stated-revealed preference survey on residential location, route, and mode choices. Our analysis shows that toll road usage affects both residential location preferences and travel behaviour. This influence varies across income groups and used travel mode and also depends on trip characteristics. Overall, the respondents in our survey prefer toll road options, as also shown by positive attitudes towards the toll road, except for low-income respondents and bus users. Furthermore, we found a significant association between residential location preference and route and mode choices for frequent users of the toll road, low-income respondents and residents who live close to the toll road. It means that self-selection exists between residential location choice and mode-route choice, and it is linked to the distance to the toll gate and frequency of using the toll road. Furthermore, we found that high-income car users are the most sensitive to increased travel costs.

We describe the anatomy of electric car ownership in Norway, the country with the highest market share of low-emission vehicles, using matched administrative micro data covering the entire population of private car owners. Our results show that socioeconomic characteristics are strong predictors of the car portfolio. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) ownership is increasing in wealth, income and education. While early BEV owners differed from other car owners, over time BEV owners have become more similar to other car owners. We document a strong association between BEV privileges on the travel to work (like toll road exemptions and bus lane access) and BEV ownership. We show that BEV buyers are less likely than other car buyers to sell their old car, but this difference has diminished over time.

Infrastructure has been discovered to be the backbone of an economy due to its influence on business and productivity. However, a significant investment funding gap was observed in infrastr...

The development of road capacity is not in line with the development of the population and the increase in the number of vehicles. This has become a classic problem of transportation in the big cities of Indonesia, including in East Java Province. The existence of road capacity in accommodating vehicles must be resolved. One way to accommodate the number of vehicles is through the toll road. But comfortable conditions of the toll road can cause accidents. One factor causing this is the driver's behavior factors, as the toll road is a freeway, they tend to drive carelessly. On the other hand, high planning standards make the difference between toll roads and ordinary highways. Yet barrier-free road does not mean that the traffic accident problem can be resolved properly. This study aims to determine how significant is the influence of driver behavior factor in causing accidents. The methodology is done by analyzing the data using statistical methods. Based on the accident data obtained, a mathematical model with multiple linear regression analysis is made. The model connects the number of traffic accidents on the Surabaya-Gempol toll road with the number of accidents caused by driver factors. The results showed that the factors causing the accident were caused by less anticipated driver factors, carelessness, drowsiness, drunkenness, distance, etcetera. This variable has a significant effect on traffic accidents at Surabaya-Gempol Toll Road by 54%.

The Mamminasata Urban Area which is centered in Makassar City has a fivesection crossroads at the north gate of the city, where two of which, the Sutami toll and Perintis Kemerdekaan non-toll road sections lead to the city center while the gate is accessed by 18 districts and all provinces in Sulawesi. As alternative roads, the two is generally described as follows: The distance of the gate to the city by the toll road is 17 km while that of by Jalan Perintis Kemerdekaan is 24 Km or 7 km longer than the toll road. The toll road is smooth during the day while the Perintis Kemerdekaan non-toll road section is congested at the peak hours in the morning, afternoon and evening with the potential resulting in far different costs and travel time. The results of the survey indicate 2: 5 in average ratio suggesting that 5 vehicles enter the city center through Perintis Kemerdekaan Non-Toll Road while 2 vehicles opt for Sutami Toll Road. This study was aimed at (1) comparing the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) from and to the city center through toll roads or non-toll roads, and (2) analyzing the tendency of the number of travellers to choose through toll roads and non-toll roads based on their orientation to the unit of cost to incur. The mathematical and statistical analysis process was done by considering all components of fixed and variable costs. The analysis also considers the use of the elemental mode of driving mode, the average speed model and the trans-log and Cobb-Douglas models. The results obtained illustrate that the value of vehicle operating costs derived from the two road sections amount to Rp. 25,462 and Rp. 25,500 suggesting insignificant difference. Despite similar travel cost between the two, the toll road is considered more beneficial in terms of the value of time and energy for motorists travelling to the city center of Makassar.

Public private partnerships are rationalized on shared value creation by combining public sector management and oversight with private sector resources for a direct provision of a public good or service. Yet little is known about what are the sources of value and the effects of contract control mechanisms for value appropriation. This paper explores this issue from the perspectives of both public sector agencies and private sector firms involved in the provision of toll roads. Using data collected from a stated choice experiment on toll road participation to obtain a composite measure of resource values, we find that resource values have little influence on decisions to form a partnership, while partner’s (un)trustworthiness and social activism by external stakeholders have a discernible effect on their decisions. Mitigating controls moderate these influences. An internal coordination framework within the public organization and the enactment of institutional policy can help to reap the most from the combined resources for shared value creation, particularly when trust is yet to be established during the contracting phase.

Government guarantees are frequently used in public-private partnership (PPP) toll road projects to attract private sector partners. In this paper, we propose a multi-objective programming model for Pareto-optimal decision in which the toll, quantity demanded, private firm’s profit and social welfare are investigated, and compare the effectiveness of exclusivity guarantees and minimum demand guarantees in PPP contracts. Under certain assumptions, we find that for any government guarantee, the Pareto-optimal toll lies in between the toll set by private firms and socially optimal toll; in addition, the Pareto-optimal toll is higher and monopoly power is stronger under minimum demand guarantee if the relative negotiating power of private firms is sufficiently high. Both the private firm’s profit and social welfare depend on relative negotiating power, buyback price, marginal social cost and minimum quantity demanded. In particular, if the minimum quantity demanded and the buyback price are sufficiently high, the government will tend to provide exclusivity guarantee but not minimum demand guarantee. A policy implication of this result is that it is not always the best choice for the government to provide a minimum demand guarantee to private firms.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to deal with the maximum interest rate guarantees (MIRGs), and develop a methodology for setting the optimal value of the interest rate cap, namely the maximum interest rate above which the private investor will obtain reimbursement from the government, which balances the interests of the parties involved in the project. Design/methodology/approach The mechanism underlying the MIRG is modeled through real options. Monte Carlo simulation is employed as the option-pricing method. The resulting real option-based model is applied to the case of the “Camionale di Bari” toll road (Southern Italy). Findings The application provides some insights for the policy maker called to define the proper forms of guarantees. Furthermore, the results support the negotiation process, allowing the different actors to structure the guarantee in a way that satisfies all the parties and fairly allocates risks between them according to different operational and financial conditions. Originality/value The novelty of the contribution is triple. First, the authors advance the state of the art on government supports by focusing on the interest rate guarantee. Second, the authors enrich the existing studies on MIRG by proposing a quantitative model to set the guarantee in compliance with the public–private win-win principle. The developed real option-based model supports the decision maker in finding the optimal value of the interest rate cap, which is able to satisfy the interests of the parties involved in the project. Third, the authors consider not only the private sponsor and the government, as traditionally made by the models developed for other guarantees, but also the lender.

In greenfield toll-road projects, financial sustainability has been a major issue. Many toll roads cannot be operated. Although most of Indonesia's 24 toll road concessions have already been signed by the Toll Road Authority, most of them were caused by financing problems. Three problems have been identified as potential sources of this unsustainability, such as the uncertainty of long-term project revenues, budget constraints provided by the government, and inadequate government support for land acquisitions. This paper aims to investigate the state-of-the-art innovative financing models recently introduced to address financial problems by using a desk study and meta-analysis. The findings are an earmarked tax revenue system, deep discount bonds, take-out financing, tax increment financing, land leases, deferred debts, and private donations.

Providing the users of a dynamic tolling system with predictions of tolling prices and the travel time difference between the toll road and the alternative routes enables them to make their travel decisions before starting their trip. This study aims to provide accurate predictions of tolling price through training and testing random forest, multilayer perceptron, and long short-term memory models and compare them with the current situation that the best prediction is extending the current toll to the next timesteps. The prediction time horizon includes five 6-minute time intervals ahead of the present time. The prediction performance of models over the testing set reveals that while all the models were significantly better than the base model, the random forest outperforms all models. For instance, while in the trained models, the mean absolute error range is from $1.5 to $2.5 for the next six minutes to the next 30 minutes, respectively, the same measure in the base model is in the range of $2.5 to $6. The prediction of travel time difference along the toll road and its alternative route with the shortest travel time revealed that the multilayer perceptron performs marginally better than the base model. However, due to a relatively stable travel time difference, the current travel time difference is an acceptable prediction for the next 30 minutes prediction horizon.

Indonesia has serious traffic jams. This study uses data from 19 Indonesian toll roads over 2008–2015 to calculate the effects of Indonesia’s historic recent fuel subsidy reforms on motor vehicle travel. The timing of the reforms was determined by budgetary and political factors, providing a suitable setting for estimating a causal effect. We control for a broad set of other factors potentially influencing traffic flows. Estimates using monthly data suggest an immediate fuel price elasticity of motor vehicle flows on the roads in our study of –0.1, increasing to –0.2 when responses over a year are considered. We estimate that Indonesia’s fuel subsidy reforms of 2013 and 2014 had reduced traffic pressure on these roads in the second half of 2015 by around 10% relative to the counterfactual without reform. A move to an adequate fuel excise system could contribute to more free-flowing traffic, while generating revenue for infrastructure and other investment.

Autonomous and connected vehicles are expected to enable new tolling mechanisms, such as auction-based tolls, for allocating the limited roadway capacity. This research examines the public perception of futuristic auction-based tolling systems, with a focus on the public acceptance of such systems over current tolling practices on highways (e.g., dynamic and fixed tolling methodologies). Through a stated-preference survey, responses from 159 road-users residing in Virginia are elicited to understand route choice behavior under a descending price auction implemented on a hypothetical two-route network. Analysis of the survey data shows that there is no outright rejection of the presented auction-based tolling among those who are familiar with the current tolling methods. While males strongly support the new method, no clear pattern emerges among other demographic variables such as income and education level, and age. While high income respondents and regular commuters are more likely to pay higher tolls, no statistical significance between different genders, age groups, household sizes, and education levels is found. Based on the modeling results and the hypothetical road network, it is found that descending price tolling method yields higher average toll rates, and generates at least 70% more revenue when travel time saving is 30 min, and improves capacity utilization of the toll road significantly compared to fixed tolls.

This study assesses the accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts in Norway. This study contributes to extant literature regarding transportation economics and policy because few studies have analyzed the accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts and current studies on this topic do not use a succinct econometric framework to infer the forecast’s bias and efficiency, which are determinants of the accuracy of forecasts. The data for this study include 68 toll road projects where forecasts and actual out-turns were available. All projects that are included in this study were opened for traffic during 1975–2014. Transport models were made mandatory for forecasting toll traffic in 2006. The results of this study reveal the following: (i) Norwegian toll road traffic forecasts are underestimated but are close to accurate because the mean percentage error is a mere 4%. This result sharply contrasts international studies that resulted in large overestimations at more than −20%. (ii) The accuracy of forecasts has not improved since transport models became mandatory. (iii) The Norwegian toll road traffic forecasts are unbiased, which implies that they do not tend to be one-sided. (iv) Norwegian forecasts are efficient, which implies that available information is used adequately when making forecasts. Our conclusion is that the toll traffic forecasts in Norway perform fairly well compared to the forecasts of other countries. In addition, we recommend that the assessment of forecasts in the transportation sector should be based on succinct econometric frameworks; otherwise, the conclusions may lack important information regarding the bias and efficiency of the forecasts.

The determination of the pricing for tolled facilities always involves consideration of multiple objectives, e.g., efficiency, safety, pollution, reliability, and economy. Simulations are widely used to evaluate the performance of transportation systems as to the various objectives in response to different travel demand management policies. However, transportation simulation is usually associated with high computation costs and non-closed-form objective functions. This paper builds a simulation based optimization framework, and uses surrogate models to approximate the true simulation function. A significant amount of computation time can be saved with this method. To solve real world application problems, we develop infill strategies for multiobjective and constrained optimization problems. Using DynusT as the simulator, we optimize the toll rates for a five-segment toll road in Maryland, and successfully update the Pareto front based on initial samples for the multiobjective optimization problem. The method works even more efficiently for the constrained optimization problem. By adjusting the toll rates for the five segments, the network-wide average travel time can be reduced by 20% compared to the currently implemented toll scheme: A total of 22,250 hours can be saved in travel time for all network users in the three-hour morning peak period. Also, the toll revenue is increased by 50% compared to the baseline case.

Purpose While the success of the toll road projects procured through public private partnerships (PPPs) routes are widely confined to the cost, time and quality performance in the delivery context, considerable evidence suggests that such success criteria are not sufficient when the toll road projects are assessed in relation to meeting the long-run community expectations. The purpose of this paper is to examine the key factors associated with the success of the toll road projects from a societal perspective in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach Based on the input from 12 experts and a rigorous literature review, a questionnaire survey was designed and a total of 206 respondents from three broad stakeholders’ groups, namely, government, private and end-users’ communities were surveyed to measure the performance of eight toll road projects. The data were primarily analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and reliability test using SPSS Software. Findings Four significant factors associated with the project social benefit were established as a measure of the overall success criteria in toll road projects. It is expected these can be used as guidance to deliver project social benefit to the community in the overall project lifecycle. Research limitations/implications This research contributes to the incorporation of social project benefit attributes to the the toll road projects’ success criteria in overall project lifecycle. Practical implications This study can be used as guidance for the overall stakeholders, such as the government and the project manager to address the current social problems and better navigate the project direction in order to achieve the overall toll road project success in the overall project lifecycles. Social implications The research highlights how the Indonesian government’s program of developing toll road projects using the PPP procurement routes can be supported for complete social inclusivity by considering the social dimension to achieve long-term success. Originality/value Identification of the key project social factors based on the data set with a wide representation of the stakeholders has made the research original and unique.

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are widely used to achieve sustainable infrastructure provision. The purpose of this research is to monitor the effects of PPPs in practice. This study calculated the operational efficiency of toll roads in Mainland China and examined the effect of the transformation from government operations to concession on their operational efficiency. The results showed that toll road operations were inefficient in terms of cost savings and that there were significant regional differences in the impact of concession on operational efficiency among three regions. Concession played a positive role in improving the operational efficiency in the eastern region; on the contrary, the influence was significantly negative in the western region. The effect on the central region was not significant. The results indicated that the efficiency advantages of concession were not given full play. The governments of economies in transition should pay more attention to the implementation environment of PPPs to make infrastructure operations more sustainable.

Recent publications have shown the role that options play in addressing the uncertainty, risk, and fairness in public–private partnership (PPP or P3) agreements in toll road projects. Typic...

This paper studies four Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) models that the government is a leader, and the private sector is a follower. They decide road capacity and franchise price either jointly or sequentially. We find that both the government and the private sector prefer to decide the franchise price. Social welfare can be maximized if the government decides the price, and the private sector decides capacity. We further find that the private sector does not always prefer a more extended franchise period, and the profit of the private sector is concave in the length of the concession period. Nevertheless, the government prefers a more extended concession period because of the inefficient operation cost.

Electronic payment is increasing inexorably as a means of paying for the use of toll roads worldwide. However, it is necessary to increase the effectiveness and expediency of this mechanism, as well as improve policy issues such as privacy or data management. The state of the art in this field typically analyzes users’ perceptions and willingness to pay to use toll roads. However, research addressing drivers’ attitudes toward the use of electronic toll collection (ETC) systems is not sufficiently developed. The aim of this paper is to identify the explanatory variables influencing toll road users’ use of ETC technologies. For that purpose, based on a nationwide survey directed toward road users of interurban toll roads in Spain, a binomial logit model was developed to explore users’ attitudes toward the use of ETC systems. The research concludes that drivers’ tag ownership is related mainly to trip-related attributes, while personal socioeconomic characteristics play a minor role. In addition, free tags would be an effective policy measure to increase toll road use, given that a majority of respondents show a positive response.

The study leveraged modern portfolio theory and stochastic time series models to develop a risk management strategy for future traffic projections along brownfield toll facilities. Uncertainty in future traffic forecasts may raise concerns about performance reliability and revenue potential. Historical time series traffic data from brownfield corridors were used for developing econometric forecast estimates, and Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify a priori risks or variance to develop optimal forecasts by using mean-variance optimization strategies. Numerical analysis is presented with historical toll transactions along the Massachusetts Turnpike system. Suggested diversification strategies were found to achieve better long-term forecast efficiencies with improved trade-offs between anticipated risks and returns. Planner and agency forecast performance expectations and risk propensity are thus jointly captured.

Travel time is the main factor affecting individuals’ travel-related decisions. Understanding the way people experience and estimate travel time is critical for a better insight regarding travel behavior and consequently for planning transport projects and guiding new policies. Whereas most travel-demand models employ objective time data, the use of subjective time data was proposed to improve model estimation. This study draws on fundamental as well as on recent psychological theories, investigating the discrepancy between subjective and objective travel times. According to one of these theories, the return trip effect, travelers tend to report shorter travel times for return trips compared to outbound trips. In a questionnaire, 174 respondents provided pre-trip time estimates. One group estimated travel times from home to local shopping areas, whereas a second group estimated times of the reverse trips. For comparison, objective times were obtained from Waze, a navigation application providing real-time information. Whereas 48% of time estimates were found accurate, over-estimates were 2.5 times more frequent than under-estimates. A return trip effect was found only for trips to/from poorly familiar shopping areas, highlighting the role of destination familiarity. Interestingly, respondents accurately estimated toll-trips but over-estimated non-toll trips. Presumably, merely thinking about paying the toll led individuals to form expectations of travel time savings in exchange. Linear and non-linear regression models for predicting subjective estimates revealed significant effects for trip frequency, trip direction, destination familiarity, toll-road and gender, amongst other variables. The results offer a fertile basis for incorporating subjective time in demand models.

The current practice of forecasting the demand for new tolled roads typically assumes that car users are prepared to pay a higher toll for a shorter journey, and they will keep doing so as long as the toll cost is not higher than their current value of travel time savings. Practice ignores the possibility that there could be a point when motorists stop driving on toll roads due to a toll budget constraint. The unconstrained toll budget assumption may be valid in networks where the addition of a new toll road does not result in a binding budget constraint that car users may have for using toll roads (although it could also be invoked for existing tolled routes through a reduction in use of a tolled route). In a road network like Sydney which offers a growing number of (linked) tolled roads, the binding budget constraint may be invoked, and hence including additional toll links might in turn reduce the car users’ willingness to pay for toll roads to save the same amount of travel time. When this occurs, car users are said to reach a toll saturation point (or threshold) and begin to consider avoiding one or more toll roads. Whilst toll saturation has important implications for demand forecasting and planning of toll roads, this type of behaviour has not been explored in the literature. We investigate the influence that increasing toll outlays has on preferences of car commuters to use one or more tolled roads as the number of tolled roads increases. The Sydney metropolitan area offers a unique laboratory to test this phenomenon, with nine tolled roads currently in place and another five in planning. The evidence supports the hypothesis that the value of travel time savings decreases as a consequence of toll saturation.

This paper examines the profit maximizing behavior of a private firm which operates a toll road competing against a free alternative in presence of cars and trucks. Trucks differ from cars in value of time (VOT), congestion externality, pavement damage, and link travel time function. We find that the firm takes either a car-strategy or a truck-strategy for profit maximization. For a traffic mix with relatively large car volume and small truck volume, the car-strategy results in no trucks using the toll road, while the truck-strategy results in all trucks using the toll road. We derive the equilibrium flow pattern under any combination of car-toll and truck-toll, based on which we identify a profit-maximizing frontier and a strategy-switching frontier in the car-toll and truck-toll two-dimensional space. By geometrically comparing the two frontiers, we establish general conditions under which each strategy will be taken, which suggest that the truck-to-car VOT ratio, the total traffic demand, and the difference in travel distance between the two roads are critical in shaping the firm's strategy.

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely applied in infrastructure projects in developing countries. However, many projects have been abandoned or canceled owing to an insufficien...

International audience; Transport concession contracts are commonly said to be standardized and too rigid. They would not allow public authorities to adapt them to evolving context and circumstances. This paper aims at challenging this view and, more particularly, the view that contractual rigidity for transport concessions is exogenous. Using a transaction cost framework, we disentangle between three main determinants of contractual rigidity: traffic uncertainty; connivance between contracting parties; quality of the institutional environment. Using an original and unique database of mostly French toll road concession contracts, we observe a great variety of provisions for toll adjustment. While our results point out a positive impact of future traffic uncertainty on the propensity to resort to flexible contracts, they also highlight that higher trust between the contracting parties and more reliable institutional environments foster contractual flexibility. These results and the associated policy implications can be helpful in implementing the conditions under which the public and private partners are able to cope with the intrinsic incompleteness of these contracts.

A pilot program in Austin, Texas, tested the practicality of integration of a real-time ridesharing application with a toll operator to process toll discounts for carpools. The toll discounts appeared on monthly toll transaction statements. The program lasted for almost a year on the 183A Toll Road and the US-290 Manor Expressway. Travelers used a smartphone application to track, record, and submit their trips for discounts. Two-person carpools that used the application received a 50% discount, and carpools of three or more people could travel toll free. The program was a partnership between the Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority, the local toll system operator, and a private ridesharing vendor. Back-office processes matched trip data from the smartphone application to transactions recorded by the toll systems. A total of 95 unique drivers were provided toll rebates for 2,213 trips during the 10.5-month period of the pilot program. During the pilot program, rebates were provided for most trips by two-person carpools. Individual driver behavior varied considerably. A select few drivers had a high number of carpool trips, whereas others took a sporadic trip or infrequent trips. Drivers took a median of seven trips during the pilot program. Future ridesharing programs should consider showing higher-dollar-value rebates that represent annual savings to incentivize ridesharing behavior. Timely feedback to users was found to be an important goal for success. In addition, program sponsors should provide positive customer service and engage users when problems that are not under their direct purview exist.

Congestion pricing has been proposed and investigated as an effective means of optimizing traffic assignment, alleviating congestion, and enhancing traffic operation efficiencies. Meanwhile, advanced traffic information dissemination systems, such as Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS), have been developed and deployed to provide real-time, accurate, and complete network-wide traffic information to facilitate travelers’ trip plans and routing selections. Recent advances in ATIS technologies, especially telecommunication technology, allow dynamic, personalized, and multimodal traffic information to be disseminated and impact travelers’ choices of departure times, alternative routes, and travel modes in the context of congestion pricing. However, few studies were conducted to determine the impact of traffic information dissemination on toll road utilizations. In this study, the effects of the provisions of traffic information on toll road usage are investigated and analyzed based on a stated preference survey conducted in Texas. A Bayesian Network (BN)-based approach is developed to discover travelers’ opinions and preferences for toll road utilization supported by network-wide traffic information provisions. The probabilistic interdependencies among various attributes, including routing choice, departure time, traffic information dissemination mode, content, coverage, commuter demographic information, and travel patterns, are identified and their impacts on toll road usage are quantified. The results indicate that the BN model performs reasonably well in travelers’ preference classifications for toll road utilization and knowledge extraction. The BN Most Probable Explanation (MPE) measurement, probability inference and variable influence analysis results illustrate travelers using highway advisory radio and internet as their primary mode of receiving traffic information are more likely to comply with routing recommendations and use toll roads. Traffic information regarding congested roads, road hazard warnings, and accident locations is of great interest to travelers, who tend to acquire such information and use toll roads more frequently. Travel time formation for home-based trips can considerably enhance travelers’ preferences for toll road usage. Female travelers tend to seek traffic information and utilize toll roads more frequently. As expected, the information provided at both pre-trip and en-route stages can positively influence travelers’ preferences for toll road usage. The proposed methodology and research findings advance our previous study and provide insight into travelers’ behavioral tendencies concerning toll road utilization in support of traffic information dissemination.

Users’ acceptability is considered one of the key drivers for the successful implementation of transport policy measures. This is especially crucial in the case of toll roads since they are financed through drivers’ contributions. Previous literature in this field has mainly focused on measuring users’ attitudes towards urban congestion pricing strategies. However limited research has been developed concerning interurban toll roads. Previous research shows that socioeconomic variables are not conclusive to explain users’ perceptions towards tolls. By contrast, other drivers such as regional differences seem to play a more important role, especially when charging conditions within the same nation greatly vary across regions. This paper analyzes regional differences in users’ attitudes within an asymmetrical distribution of the toll road network across regions. Based on a nationwide survey conducted to road users in interurban toll roads in Spain, we develop both a binomial logit and a censored regression (tobit) model to explore drivers’ perceptions and willingness to pay. The research concludes that users from regions with a more extensive tolled network generally show a more negative attitude towards charges, but not necessarily a lower willingness to pay. The paper also points out that an asymmetrical distribution of toll roads across regions may result in negative perceptions among those users perceiving to be unfairly treated when compared to citizens in other regions.

Decision making about transport infrastructure investment is based on the net impacts and risks to the community. The private sector is often involved in toll road projects, including vario...

In recent year, rapid population growth and urban development were observed in Bogor City as a satellite city of Jakarta. In this study, we predicted the city expansion and land surface temperature (LST) in the future. Landsat images of 1997, 2007, and 2017 were used to detect the land use changes. Land use maps in 2007 and 2017 were used for land use prediction in 2027. Slope, distance from the roads, distance from the toll road, and elevation were also used as variables which influenced the land use change. The combination of Multi-Layer Perceptron and Markov Chain (MLP-MC) were applied to forecast the city expansion. We found that the urbanized area will expand by 3759.6 ha between 2017 and 2027. Based on the land use prediction of 2027, we predicted the future LST of 2027. The average LST of the analyzed area in 2027 increased compared to 2017. The future city expansion will increase the area with high LST. This study gives information to the city planners for making a comfortable and sustainable city.

Choosing a route is a complex task, especially since the roads’ capacities are limited and road users non-cooperatively seek to optimize their own trip. This article present the results of three in-laboratory route choice experiments. In all experiments the participants had to choose repeatedly between a high-capacity toll-road and a toll-free main road. We investigate the role of pre-trip information on the resulting route usage dynamics. Besides the absence of a stable equilibrium point (Wardrop’s User Equilibrium), we found that the participants improve their decisions over the course of time as a result of learning. Additional information appears only useful if only a limited number of participants possess such information. Moreover, we found gender-related differences in the observed road usage patterns: female participants were more likely to choose the toll road than male participants.

Recently there has been a trend among toll road agencies to index their tolls to inflation, giving rise to the question of how past tolls compared with inflation. To answer that question, a database including all toll roads in the United States since 1950 was developed. The database was used to analyze historical national average per mile toll rates for passenger cars and commercial vehicles and to compare these rates with rates of inflation. Historical toll road operation trends, including the annual number of agencies and centerline mileage since 1950, were also analyzed and discussed in the context of changing federal highway policies over time. To consider inflation from the perspective of drivers and toll agencies, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' national-level all urban consumers consumer price index (CPI) and FHWA construction price indexes were used for comparison. It was found that considering typical published electronic or cash toll rates, the national average annual toll increase since 19...

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to compare revenue guarantee programs in a build-operation-transfer project (BOT). Two types of revenue guarantee programs are formulated: a payment-based annual revenue guarantee program and a period-extension-based cumulative revenue guarantee program. Design/methodology/approach – Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the real option approach. This method is applied to a toll road project in the Philippines wherein the expected payoffs of the government and the concessionaire are simulated over an evaluation period that includes the concession period. The condition under which the expected government return in one program is equal to that in the other program is shown. These programs are then evaluated by incorporating a project risk factor into the project return. Findings – The results show that the cumulative revenue guarantee program is preferred to the annual revenue guarantee program. However, the optimal solution depends on the government's return-risk preference. Research limitations/implications – The simulation was implemented with limited cases of discrete input with respect to the cost-sharing parameter, the annual guarantee rate, and the guaranteed cumulative revenue. A simulation with more input values should be performed to achieve results that are more general and sophisticated. Practical implications – It is indicated that the simple reduction of risk does not necessarily mean that government expected payoff will increase. Originality/value – It is expected that this method contributes to the proper decisions made by the governments with respect to the choice of a revenue guarantee mechanism in BOT projects.

With rare exception, actual tollroad traffic in many countries has failed to reproduce forecast traffic levels, regardless of whether the assessment is made after an initial year of operation or as long as 10 years after opening. Pundits have offered many reasons for this divergence, including optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, the promise to equity investors of early returns on investment, errors in land use forecasts, and specific assumptions underlying the traffic assignment models used to develop traffic forecasts. One such assumption is the selection of a behaviourally meaningful value of travel time savings (VTTS) for use in a generalised cost or generalised time user benefit expression that is the main behavioural feature of the traffic assignment (route choice) model. Numerous empirical studies using stated choice experiments have designed choice sets of alternatives as if users choose a tolled route or a free route under the (implied) assumption that the tolled route is tolled for the entire trip. Reality is often very different, with a high incidence of use of a non-tolled road leading into and connecting out of a tolled link. In this paper we recognise this feature of route choice and redesign the stated choice experiment to account for it. Furthermore, this study is a follow up to a previous study undertaken before a new toll road was in place, and it benefits from real exposure to the new toll road. We find that the VTTS is noticeably reduced, and if the VTTS is a significant contributing influence on errors on traffic forecasts, then the lower estimates make sense behaviourally. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

PurposeThe present paper aims to introduce a new methodology taking risk behavior of decision maker into account to fine‐tune the value of a risky public‐private‐partnership (PPP) project and the corresponding cost of capital based on the target rate of return set by the project sponsor and the degree of project risks.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed methodology combines the cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to characterize the risk preference of the project sponsor and the Monte Carlo simulation to assess the project riskiness. The methodology requires a pre‐set target rate of return that will define the relative gains and losses for a prospect theory project sponsor. The application was illustrated using a build/operate/transfer toll road project as a case study.FindingsAs the project sponsor sets a greater target return, the probability of the project not meeting the target is accordingly greater. Given that losses have greater impact than gains on the decision, other things being equal, a higher target return leads to a higher value correction. It has also been demonstrated that the corresponding project's cost of capital can be up‐ or downadjusted depending on the project's riskiness which may result in a reverse preference to favor a higher risk scenario.Research limitations/implicationsThe methodology uses the CPT parameters that need to be further confirmed and validated if applied to value large risky projects like PPP investments.Originality/valueThe proposed methodology offers a different approach to correctly value a risky PPP project by extending the application of the cumulative prospect theory that well explains the irrationality of human decision behavior under risk into a financial decision‐making process. It takes the full benefit of simulation to understand project risks and also assists financial decision‐making.

Pricing of road use in the form of tolls, congestion charges, kilometre tax and other similar schemes, is becoming increasingly common. Each toll road operator has so far decided on its own how to design and implement systems for collecting road user charges, causing a plethora of system and scheme designs. As a measure to reduce the drawbacks of such differences, the European Union has passed legislation aiming at making available interoperable road charging services, valid across all charging systems a vehicle might pass during a European journey. This legislation is setting the bar high, requiring that virtually every charging system in the Union be covered. We analyse the costs and benefits caused by this regulation, and if an adjusted regulation can improve these results. We conclude that the new legislation yields a social loss ranging from 100 to just above 500 million Euros annually. Policy suggestions to improve this result are also provided.

This paper argues that because of the irreversibility and uncertainty associated with Build - Operate - Transfer (BOT) infrastructure projects, their financial evaluation should also routinely include the determination of the value of the option to defer the construction start-up. This ensures that project viability is comprehensively assessed before any revenue or loan guarantees are considered by project sponsors to support the project. This paper shows that the framework can be used even in the context of the intuitive binomial lattice model. This requires estimating volatility directly from the evolution of the net operating income while accounting for the correlation between the revenue and costs functions. This approach ensures that the uncertainties usually associated with toll revenues, in particular, are thoroughly investigated and their impact on project viability is thoroughly assessed. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the framework with data from an actual (BOT) toll road project. The results show that by postponing the project for a couple of years the project turns out to be viable, whereas it was not without the deferral. The evaluation approach proposed therefore provides a better framework for determining when and the extent of government financial support, if any, that may be needed to support a BOT project on the basis of project economics. The analysis may also be applicable to private sector investment projects, which are characterized by irreversibility and a high rate of uncertainty.

User acceptability has become a critical issue for the successful implementation of transport pricing measures and policies. Although several studies have addressed the public acceptability of road pricing, little evidence can be found of the effects of pricing strategies. The acceptability of alternative schemes for a toll network already in operation is an issue to be tackled. This paper contributes to the limited literature in this field by exploring perceptions toward road-pricing schemes among toll road users. On the basis of a nationwide survey of toll road users in Spain, the study developed several binomial logit models to analyze user acceptability of three approaches: express toll lanes, a time-based pricing approach, and a flat fee (vignette) system. The results show notable differences in user acceptability by the type of charging scheme proposed. Express toll lanes were more acceptable by travelers who perceived greater benefits from saving travel time. The acceptability of time-based approaches (peak versus off-peak) decreased for users who felt forced to use the toll road, whereas this was not an aspect that significantly influenced users’ support for flat fee schemes. In addition, a flat fee strategy was more acceptable for long-distance trips and truck drivers who regularly used the toll facilities. The results from this analysis can inform policy makers and planners for the promotion of more efficient, socially inclusive, and publicly acceptable road-pricing schemes.

Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) systems are based on tags, on-board units associated to personal bank accounts, used for paying tolls electronically. Despite the benefits associated to their use, acknowledged by public authorities among other stakeholders, these systems are relentlessly penetrating as a means for paying the use of roads worldwide. However, governments and infrastructure operators still have a great potential to increase the effectiveness and expediency of these mechanisms. Previous literature in this field has focused on analyzing users’ perceptions and willingness to pay to use toll roads. However, there is still room for addressing additional aspects such as drivers’ adoption of ETC systems in these road networks allowing the payment of tolls electronically. The aim of this paper is to identify the explanatory factors influencing the adoption of ETC technologies by toll road drivers. To that end, we exploit a nationwide survey conducted to road users in interurban toll roads in Spain, and develop a multilevel logit framework to explore users’ adoption and position towards the use of electronic tolling. The research concludes that drivers’ tag ownership is mainly related to trip-related attributes, while personal socioeconomic characteristics play a minor role. Then, it is not possible to establish specific socioeconomic user market segments to direct policy efforts aimed at increasing the penetration of ETC. Furthermore, according to the results, delivering tag devices for free would be an effective policy measure to encourage individuals adopting electronic tolling and making additional use of toll roads, due to the benefits provided by ETC systems.

This paper investigates the effects of the provision of traffic information on toll road usage based on a stated preference survey conducted in central Texas. Although many researchers have studied congestion pricing and traffic information dissemination extensively, most of them focused on the effects that these instruments individually produce on transportation system performance. Few studies have been conducted to elaborate on the impacts of traffic information dissemination on toll road utilization. In this study, 716 individuals completed a survey to measure representative public opinions and preferences for toll road usage in support of various traffic information dissemination classified by different modes, contents, and timeliness categories. A nested logit model was developed and estimated to identify the significant attributes of traffic information dissemination, traveler commuting patterns, routing behavior, and demographic characteristics, and analyze their impacts on toll road utilization. The results revealed that the travelers using dynamic message sign systems as their primary mode of receiving traffic information are more likely to choose toll roads. The potential toll road users also indicated their desire to obtain traffic information via internet. Information regarding accident locations, road hazard warnings, and congested roads is frequently sought by travelers. Furthermore, high-quality congested road information dissemination can significantly enhance travelers’ preferences of toll road usage. Specifically the study found that travelers anticipated an average travel time saving of about 11.3 min from better information; this is about 30 % of travelers’ average one-way commuting time. The mean value of the time savings was found to be about $11.82 per hour, close to ½ of the average Austin wage rate. The model specifications and result analyses provide in-depth insights in interpreting travelers’ behavioral tendencies of toll road utilization in support of traffic information. The results are also helpful to shape and develop future transportation toll system and transportation policy.