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Rationale: Multiple studies have demonstrated an increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in heterozygous carriers of the AAT (alpha-1 antitrypsin) Z allele. However, it is not known if MZ subjects with COPD are phenotypically different from noncarriers (MM genotype) with COPD. Objectives: To assess if MZ subjects with COPD have different clinical features compared with MM subjects with COPD. Methods: Genotypes of SERPINA1 were ascertained by using whole-genome sequencing data in three independent studies. We compared outcomes between MM subjects with COPD and MZ subjects with COPD in each study and combined the results in a meta-analysis. We performed longitudinal and survival analyses to compare outcomes in MM and MZ subjects with COPD over time. Measurements and Main Results: We included 290 MZ subjects with COPD and 6,184 MM subjects with COPD across the three studies. MZ subjects had a lower FEV1% predicted and greater quantitative emphysema on chest computed tomography scans compared with MM subjects. In a meta-analysis, the FEV1 was 3.9% lower (95% confidence interval [CI], -6.55% to -1.26%) and emphysema (the percentage of lung attenuation areas

BackgroundAttenuation of transforming growth factor β by blocking angiotensin II has been shown to reduce emphysema in a murine model. General population studies have demonstrated that the use of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis) and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) is associated with reduction of emphysema progression in former smokers and that the use of ACEis is associated with reduction of FEV1 progression in current smokers.Research questionIs use of ACEi and ARB associated with less progression of emphysema and FEV1 decline among individuals with COPD or baseline emphysema?MethodsFormer and current smokers from the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study who attended baseline and 5-year follow-up visits, did not change smoking status, and underwent chest CT imaging were included. Adjusted linear mixed models were used to evaluate progression of adjusted lung density (ALD), percent emphysema (%total lung volume

BackgroundSmokers manifest varied phenotypes of pulmonary impairment.Research questionWhich pulmonary phenotypes are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) in smokers?Study design and methodsWe analyzed data from the University of Pittsburgh COPD Specialized Center for Clinically Oriented Research (SCCOR) cohort (n = 481) and the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort (n = 2,580). Participants were current and former smokers with > 10 pack-years of tobacco exposure. Data from the two cohorts were analyzed separately because of methodologic differences. Lung hyperinflation was assessed by plethysmography in the SCCOR cohort and by inspiratory and expiratory CT scan lung volumes in the COPDGene cohort. Subclinical CAD was assessed as the coronary artery calcium score, whereas clinical CAD was defined as a self-reported history of CAD or myocardial infarction (MI). Analyses were performed in all smokers and then repeated in those with airflow obstruction (FEV1 to FVC ratio, < 0.70).ResultsPulmonary phenotypes, including airflow limitation, emphysema, lung hyperinflation, diffusion capacity, and radiographic measures of airway remodeling, showed weak to moderate correlations (r < 0.7) with each other. In multivariate models adjusted for pulmonary phenotypes and CAD risk factors, lung hyperinflation was the only phenotype associated with calcium score, history of clinical CAD, or history of MI (per 0.2 higher expiratory and inspiratory CT scan lung volume; coronary calcium: OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; P = .02; clinical CAD: OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.3; P = .01; and MI in COPDGene: OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.8; P = .05). FEV1 and emphysema were associated with increased risk of CAD (P < .05) in models adjusted for CAD risk factors; however, these associations were attenuated on adjusting for lung hyperinflation. Results were the same in those with airflow obstruction and were present in both cohorts.InterpretationLung hyperinflation is associated strongly with clinical and subclinical CAD in smokers, including those with airflow obstruction. After lung hyperinflation was accounted for, FEV1 and emphysema no longer were associated with CAD. Subsequent studies should consider measuring lung hyperinflation and examining its mechanistic role in CAD in current and former smokers.

BackgroundPulmonary endothelial damage has been shown to precede the development of emphysema in animals, and vascular changes in humans have been observed in COPD and emphysema.Research questionIs intraparenchymal vascular pruning associated with longitudinal progression of emphysema on CT imaging or decline in lung function over 5 years?Study design and methodsThe Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study enrolled ever smokers with and without COPD from 2008 through 2011. The percentage of emphysema-like lung, or "percent emphysema," was assessed at baseline and after 5 years on noncontrast CT imaging as the percentage of lung voxels < -950 Hounsfield units. An automated CT imaging-based tool assessed and classified intrapulmonary arteries and veins. Spirometry measures are postbronchodilator. Pulmonary arterial pruning was defined as a lower ratio of small artery volume (< 5 mm2 cross-sectional area) to total lung artery volume. Mixed linear models included demographics, anthropomorphics, smoking, and COPD, with emphysema models also adjusting for CT imaging scanner and lung function models adjusting for clinical center and baseline percent emphysema.ResultsAt baseline, the 4,227 participants were 60 ± 9 years of age, 50% were women, 28% were Black, 47% were current smokers, and 41% had COPD. Median percent emphysema was 2.1 (interquartile range, 0.6-6.3) and progressed 0.24 percentage points/y (95% CI, 0.22-0.26 percentage points/y) over 5.6 years. Mean FEV1 to FVC ratio was 68.5 ± 14.2% and declined 0.26%/y (95% CI, -0.30 to -0.23%/y). Greater pulmonary arterial pruning was associated with more rapid progression of percent emphysema (0.11 percentage points/y per 1-SD increase in arterial pruning; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16 percentage points/y), including after adjusting for baseline percent emphysema and FEV1. Arterial pruning also was associated with a faster decline in FEV1 to FVC ratio (-0.04%/y per 1-SD increase in arterial pruning; 95% CI, -0.008 to -0.001%/y).InterpretationPulmonary arterial pruning was associated with faster progression of percent emphysema and more rapid decline in FEV1 to FVC ratio over 5 years in ever smokers, suggesting that pulmonary vascular differences may be relevant in disease progression.Trial registryClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00608764; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

PurposeQuantitative computed tomography (qCT) imaging-based cluster analysis identified clinically meaningful COPD former-smoker subgroups (clusters) based on cross-sectional data. We aimed to identify progression clusters for former smokers using longitudinal data.Patients and methodsWe selected 472 former smokers from SPIROMICS with a baseline visit and a one-year follow-up visit. A total of 150 qCT imaging-based variables, comprising 75 variables at baseline and their corresponding progression rates, were derived from the respective inspiration and expiration scans of the two visits. The COPD progression clusters identified were then associated with subject demography, clinical variables and biomarkers.ResultsCOPD severities at baseline increased with increasing cluster number. Cluster 1 patients were an obese subgroup with rapid progression of functional small airway disease percentage (fSAD%) and emphysema percentage (Emph%). Cluster 2 exhibited a decrease of fSAD% and Emph%, an increase of tissue fraction at total lung capacity and airway narrowing over one year. Cluster 3 showed rapid expansion of Emph% and an attenuation of fSAD%. Cluster 4 demonstrated severe emphysema and fSAD and significant structural alterations at baseline with rapid progression of fSAD% over one year. Subjects with different progression patterns in the same cross-sectional cluster were identified by longitudinal clustering.ConclusionqCT imaging-based metrics at two visits for former smokers allow for the derivation of four statistically stable clusters associated with unique progression patterns and clinical characteristics. Use of baseline variables and their progression rates enables identification of longitudinal clusters, resulting in a refinement of cross-sectional clusters.

COPD is a heterogeneous syndrome. Many COPD subtypes have been proposed, but there is not yet consensus on how many COPD subtypes there are and how they should be defined. The COPD Genetic Epidemiology Study (COPDGene), which has generated 10-year longitudinal chest imaging, spirometry, and molecular data, is a rich resource for relating COPD phenotypes to underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms. In this article, we place COPDGene clustering studies in context with other highly cited COPD clustering studies, and summarize the main COPD subtype findings from COPDGene. First, most manifestations of COPD occur along a continuum, which explains why continuous aspects of COPD or disease axes may be more accurate and reproducible than subtypes identified through clustering methods. Second, continuous COPD-related measures can be used to create subgroups through the use of predictive models to define cut-points, and we review COPDGene research on blood eosinophil count thresholds as a specific example. Third, COPD phenotypes identified or prioritized through machine learning methods have led to novel biological discoveries, including novel emphysema genetic risk variants and systemic inflammatory subtypes of COPD. Fourth, trajectory-based COPD subtyping captures differences in the longitudinal evolution of COPD, addressing a major limitation of clustering analyses that are confounded by disease severity. Ongoing longitudinal characterization of subjects in COPDGene will provide useful insights about the relationship between lung imaging parameters, molecular markers, and COPD progression that will enable the identification of subtypes based on underlying disease processes and distinct patterns of disease progression, with the potential to improve the clinical relevance and reproducibility of COPD subtypes.

Rationale: The decades-long progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) renders identifying different trajectories of disease progression challenging.Objectives: To identify subtypes of patients with COPD with distinct longitudinal progression patterns using a novel machine-learning tool called "Subtype and Stage Inference" (SuStaIn) and to evaluate the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification in COPD.Methods: We applied SuStaIn to cross-sectional computed tomography imaging markers in 3,698 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-4 patients and 3,479 controls from the COPDGene (COPD Genetic Epidemiology) study to identify subtypes of patients with COPD. We confirmed the identified subtypes and progression patterns using ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) data. We assessed the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification by comparing SuStaIn subtypes and stages at baseline with longitudinal follow-up data.Measurements and Main Results: We identified two trajectories of disease progression in COPD: a "Tissue→Airway" subtype (n = 2,354, 70.4%), in which small airway dysfunction and emphysema precede large airway wall abnormalities, and an "Airway→Tissue" subtype (n = 988, 29.6%), in which large airway wall abnormalities precede emphysema and small airway dysfunction. Subtypes were reproducible in ECLIPSE. Baseline stage in both subtypes correlated with future FEV1/FVC decline (r = -0.16 [P

Impaired single breath carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) is associated with emphysema. Small airways disease (SAD) may be a precursor lesion to emphysema, but the relationship between SAD and DLCO is undescribed. We hypothesized that in mild COPD, functional SAD (fSAD) defined by computed tomography (CT) and Parametric Response Mapping methodology would correlate with impaired DLCO. Using data from ever-smokers in the COPDGene cohort, we established that fSAD correlated significantly with lower DLCO among both non-obstructed and GOLD 1-2 subjects. The relationship between DLCO with CT-defined emphysema was present in all GOLD stages, but most prominent in severe disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00608764. Registry: COPDGene. Registered 06 February 2008, retrospectively registered.

BackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Present-day diagnostic criteria are largely based solely on spirometric criteria. Accumulating evidence has identified a substantial number of individuals without spirometric evidence of COPD who suffer from respiratory symptoms and/or increased morbidity and mortality. There is a clear need for an expanded definition of COPD that is linked to physiologic, structural (computed tomography [CT]) and clinical evidence of disease. Using data from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology study (COPDGene®), we hypothesized that an integrated approach that includes environmental exposure, clinical symptoms, chest CT imaging and spirometry better defines disease and captures the likelihood of progression of respiratory obstruction and mortality.MethodsFour key disease characteristics - environmental exposure (cigarette smoking), clinical symptoms (dyspnea and/or chronic bronchitis), chest CT imaging abnormalities (emphysema, gas trapping and/or airway wall thickening), and abnormal spirometry - were evaluated in a group of 8784 current and former smokers who were participants in COPDGene® Phase 1. Using these 4 disease characteristics, 8 categories of participants were identified and evaluated for odds of spirometric disease progression (FEV1 > 350 ml loss over 5 years), and the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was examined.ResultsUsing smokers without symptoms, CT imaging abnormalities or airflow obstruction as the reference population, individuals were classified as Possible COPD, Probable COPD and Definite COPD. Current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria would diagnose 4062 (46%) of the 8784 study participants with COPD. The proposed COPDGene® 2019 diagnostic criteria would add an additional 3144 participants. Under the new criteria, 82% of the 8784 study participants would be diagnosed with Possible, Probable or Definite COPD. These COPD groups showed increased risk of disease progression and mortality. Mortality increased in patients as the number of their COPD characteristics increased, with a maximum hazard ratio for all cause-mortality of 5.18 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.15-6.48) in those with all 4 disease characteristics.ConclusionsA substantial portion of smokers with respiratory symptoms and imaging abnormalities do not manifest spirometric obstruction as defined by population normals. These individuals are at significant risk of death and spirometric disease progression. We propose to redefine the diagnosis of COPD through an integrated approach using environmental exposure, clinical symptoms, CT imaging and spirometric criteria. These expanded criteria offer the potential to stimulate both current and future interventions that could slow or halt disease progression in patients before disability or irreversible lung structural changes develop.

The article addresses the global impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), noting its high prevalence and the significant burden of undiagnosed cases. Topics include the limitations of current screening practices and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's stance against routine spirometry for asymptomatic individuals, despite evidence suggesting that at-risk populations could benefit from early detection.

BackgroundCOPD is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary artery calcification (CAC) provides additional prognostic information. With increasing use of nongated CT scans in clinical practice, this study hypothesized that the visual Weston CAC score would perform as well as the Agatston score in predicting prevalent and incident coronary artery disease (CAD) and CVD in COPD.MethodsCAC was measured by using Agatston and Weston scores on baseline CT scans in 1,875 current and former smokers enrolled in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study. Baseline cardiovascular disease and incident cardiac events on longitudinal follow-up were recorded. Accuracy of the CAC scores was measured by using receiver-operating characteristic analysis, and Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to estimate the risk of incident cardiac events.ResultsCAD was reported by 133 (7.1%) subjects at baseline. A total of 413 (22.0%) and 241 (12.9%) patients had significant CAC according to the Weston (≥ 7) and Agatston (≥ 400) scores, respectively; the two methods were significantly correlated (r = 0.84; P < .001). Over 5 years of follow-up, 127 patients (6.8%) developed incident CVD. For predicting prevalent CAD, c-indices for the Weston and Agatston scores were 0.78 and 0.74 and for predicting incident CVD, they were 0.62 and 0.61. After adjustment for age, race, sex, smoking pack-years, FEV1, percent emphysema, and CT scanner type, a Weston score ≥ 7 was associated with time to first acute coronary event (hazard ratio, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.32 to 3.53]; P = .002), but a Agatston score ≥ 400 was not (hazard ratio, 1.75 [95% CI, 0.99-3.09]; P = .053).ConclusionsA simple visual score for CAC performed well in predicting incident CAD in smokers with and without COPD.Trial registryClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00608764; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

BACKGROUND:Eosinophilic airway inflammation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with exacerbations and responsivity to steroids, suggesting potential shared mechanisms with eosinophilic asthma. However, there is no consistent blood eosinophil count that has been used to define the increased exacerbation risk. OBJECTIVE:We sought to investigate blood eosinophil counts associated with exacerbation risk in patients with COPD. METHODS:Blood eosinophil counts and exacerbation risk were analyzed in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD by using 2 independent studies of former and current smokers with longitudinal data. The Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study was analyzed for discovery (n = 1,553), and the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study was analyzed for validation (n = 1,895). A subset of the ECLIPSE study subjects were used to assess the stability of blood eosinophil counts over time. RESULTS:COPD exacerbation risk increased with higher eosinophil counts. An eosinophil count threshold of 300 cells/μL or greater showed adjusted incidence rate ratios for exacerbations of 1.32 in the COPDGene study (95% CI, 1.10-1.63). The cutoff of 300 cells/μL or greater was validated for prospective risk of exacerbation in the ECLIPSE study, with adjusted incidence rate ratios of 1.22 (95% CI, 1.06-1.41) using 3-year follow-up data. Stratified analysis confirmed that the increased exacerbation risk associated with an eosinophil count of 300 cells/μL or greater was driven by subjects with a history of frequent exacerbations in both the COPDGene and ECLIPSE studies. CONCLUSIONS:Patients with moderate-to-severe COPD and blood eosinophil counts of 300 cells/μL or greater had an increased risk exacerbations in the COPDGene study, which was prospectively validated in the ECLIPSE study.

BackgroundEmphysema has considerable variability in its regional distribution. Craniocaudal emphysema distribution is an important predictor of the response to lung volume reduction. However, there is little consensus regarding how to define upper lobe-predominant and lower lobe-predominant emphysema subtypes. Consequently, the clinical and genetic associations with these subtypes are poorly characterized.MethodsWe sought to identify subgroups characterized by upper-lobe or lower-lobe emphysema predominance and comparable amounts of total emphysema by analyzing data from 9,210 smokers without alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort. CT densitometric emphysema was measured in each lung lobe. Random forest clustering was applied to lobar emphysema variables after regressing out the effects of total emphysema. Clusters were tested for association with clinical and imaging outcomes at baseline and at 5-year follow-up. Their associations with genetic variants were also compared.ResultsThree clusters were identified: minimal emphysema (n = 1,312), upper lobe-predominant emphysema (n = 905), and lower lobe-predominant emphysema (n = 796). Despite a similar amount of total emphysema, the lower-lobe group had more severe airflow obstruction at baseline and higher rates of metabolic syndrome compared with subjects with upper-lobe predominance. The group with upper-lobe predominance had greater 5-year progression of emphysema, gas trapping, and dyspnea. Differential associations with known COPD genetic risk variants were noted.ConclusionsSubgroups of smokers defined by upper-lobe or lower-lobe emphysema predominance exhibit different functional and radiological disease progression rates, and the upper-lobe predominant subtype shows evidence of association with known COPD genetic risk variants. These subgroups may be useful in the development of personalized treatments for COPD.

BackgroundGrowth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), a cytokine associated with cardiovascular mortality, increases during chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, but any role in stable COPD is unknown. We tested associations between GDF-15 and subclinical coronary atherosclerosis, assessed by coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, in COPD subjects free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD).MethodsCross-sectional analysis of COPD participants (GOLD stages 2-4) in the COPDGene cohort without CVD at enrollment, using baseline CAC (from non-EKG-gated chest computed tomography) and plasma GDF-15 (by custom ELISA). We used multinomial logistic modeling of GDF-15 associations with CAC, adjusting for demographics, baseline risk (calculated using the HEART: Personal Heart Early Assessment Risk Tool (Budoff et al. 114:1761-1791, 2006) score), smoking history, measures of airflow obstruction, emphysema and airway disease severity.ResultsAmong 694 participants with COPD (47% women, mean age 63.6 years) mean GDF-15 was 1,304 pg/mL, and mean CAC score was 198. Relative to the lower GDF-15 tertile, higher tertiles showed bivariate association with increasing CAC score (mid tertile odds ratio [OR] 1.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29, 2.51; higher tertile OR 2.86, CI 2.04, 4.02). This association was maintained after additionally adjusting for baseline CVD risk, for co-morbidities and descriptors of COPD severity and impact, markers of cardiac stress (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin T) and of inflammation (Interleukin-6), and in subgroup analysis excluding men, diabetics, current smokers or those with limited ambulation.ConclusionsIn ever-smokers with COPD free of clinical CVD, GDF-15 contributes independently to subclinical coronary atherosclerosis.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00608764 . Registered 28 January 2008.

RationaleAging is associated with reduced FEV1 to FVC ratio (FEV1/FVC), hyperinflation, and alveolar enlargement, but little is known about how age affects small airways.ObjectivesTo determine if chest computed tomography (CT)-assessed functional small airway would increase with age, even among asymptomatic individuals.MethodsWe used parametric response mapping analysis of paired inspiratory/expiratory CTs to identify functional small airway abnormality (PRMFSA) and emphysema (PRMEMPH) in the SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study) cohort. Using adjusted linear regression models, we analyzed associations between PRMFSA and age in subjects with or without airflow obstruction. We subdivided participants with normal spirometry based on respiratory-related impairment (6-minute-walk distance 25, respiratory events requiring treatment [antibiotics and/or steroids or hospitalization] in the year before enrollment).Measurements and main resultsAmong 580 never- and ever-smokers without obstruction or respiratory impairment, PRMFSA increased 2.7% per decade, ranging from 3.6% (ages 40-50 yr) to 12.7% (ages 70-80 yr). PRMEMPH increased nonsignificantly (0.1% [ages 40-50 yr] to 0.4% [ages 70-80 yr]; P = 0.34). Associations were similar among nonobstructed individuals with respiratory-related impairment. Increasing PRMFSA in subjects without airflow obstruction was associated with increased FVC (P = 0.004) but unchanged FEV1 (P = 0.94), yielding lower FEV1/FVC ratios (P

Multidetector row computed tomography (MDCT) is increasingly taking a central role in identifying subphenotypes within chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and other lung-related disease populations, allowing for the quantification of the amount and distribution of altered parenchyma along with the characterization of airway and vascular anatomy. The embedding of quantitative CT (QCT) into a multicenter trial with a variety of scanner makes and models along with the variety of pressures within a clinical radiology setting has proven challenging, especially in the context of a longitudinal study. SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study), sponsored by the National Institutes of Health, has established a QCT lung assessment system (QCT-LAS), which includes scanner-specific imaging protocols for lung assessment at total lung capacity and residual volume. Also included are monthly scanning of a standardized test object and web-based tools for subject registration, protocol assignment, and data transmission coupled with automated image interrogation to assure protocol adherence. The SPIROMICS QCT-LAS has been adopted and contributed to by a growing number of other multicenter studies in which imaging is embedded. The key components of the SPIROMICS QCT-LAS along with evidence of implementation success are described herein. While imaging technologies continue to evolve, the required components of a QCT-LAS provide the framework for future studies, and the QCT results emanating from SPIROMICS and the growing number of other studies using the SPIROMICS QCT-LAS will provide a shared resource of image-derived pulmonary metrics.

RationaleThe small conducting airways are the major site of airflow obstruction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and may precede emphysema development.ObjectivesWe hypothesized a novel computed tomography (CT) biomarker of small airway disease predicts FEV1 decline.MethodsWe analyzed 1,508 current and former smokers from COPDGene with linear regression to assess predictors of change in FEV1 (ml/yr) over 5 years. Separate models for subjects without and with airflow obstruction were generated using baseline clinical and physiologic predictors in addition to two novel CT metrics created by parametric response mapping (PRM), a technique pairing inspiratory and expiratory CT images to define emphysema (PRM(emph)) and functional small airways disease (PRM(fSAD)), a measure of nonemphysematous air trapping.Measurements and main resultsMean (SD) rate of FEV1 decline in ml/yr for GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) 0-4 was as follows: 41.8 (47.7), 53.8 (57.1), 45.6 (61.1), 31.6 (43.6), and 5.1 (35.8), respectively (trend test for grades 1-4; P

Key Points: Question: How is diagnostic accuracy impacted when clinicians are provided artificial intelligence (AI) models with image-based AI model explanations, and can explanations help clinicians when shown systematically biased AI models? Findings: In this multicenter randomized clinical vignette survey study, diagnostic accuracy significantly increased by 4.4% when clinicians reviewed a patient clinical vignette with standard AI model predictions and model explanations compared with baseline accuracy. However, accuracy significantly decreased by 11.3% when clinicians were shown systematically biased AI model predictions and model explanations did not mitigate the negative effects of such predictions. Meaning: AI model explanations did not help clinicians recognize systematically biased AI models. Importance: Artificial intelligence (AI) could support clinicians when diagnosing hospitalized patients; however, systematic bias in AI models could worsen clinician diagnostic accuracy. Recent regulatory guidance has called for AI models to include explanations to mitigate errors made by models, but the effectiveness of this strategy has not been established. Objectives: To evaluate the impact of systematically biased AI on clinician diagnostic accuracy and to determine if image-based AI model explanations can mitigate model errors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Randomized clinical vignette survey study administered between April 2022 and January 2023 across 13 US states involving hospitalist physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. Interventions: Clinicians were shown 9 clinical vignettes of patients hospitalized with acute respiratory failure, including their presenting symptoms, physical examination, laboratory results, and chest radiographs. Clinicians were then asked to determine the likelihood of pneumonia, heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as the underlying cause(s) of each patient's acute respiratory failure. To establish baseline diagnostic accuracy, clinicians were shown 2 vignettes without AI model input. Clinicians were then randomized to see 6 vignettes with AI model input with or without AI model explanations. Among these 6 vignettes, 3 vignettes included standard-model predictions, and 3 vignettes included systematically biased model predictions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinician diagnostic accuracy for pneumonia, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Results: Median participant age was 34 years (IQR, 31-39) and 241 (57.7%) were female. Four hundred fifty-seven clinicians were randomized and completed at least 1 vignette, with 231 randomized to AI model predictions without explanations, and 226 randomized to AI model predictions with explanations. Clinicians' baseline diagnostic accuracy was 73.0% (95% CI, 68.3% to 77.8%) for the 3 diagnoses. When shown a standard AI model without explanations, clinician accuracy increased over baseline by 2.9 percentage points (95% CI, 0.5 to 5.2) and by 4.4 percentage points (95% CI, 2.0 to 6.9) when clinicians were also shown AI model explanations. Systematically biased AI model predictions decreased clinician accuracy by 11.3 percentage points (95% CI, 7.2 to 15.5) compared with baseline and providing biased AI model predictions with explanations decreased clinician accuracy by 9.1 percentage points (95% CI, 4.9 to 13.2) compared with baseline, representing a nonsignificant improvement of 2.3 percentage points (95% CI, −2.7 to 7.2) compared with the systematically biased AI model. Conclusions and Relevance: Although standard AI models improve diagnostic accuracy, systematically biased AI models reduced diagnostic accuracy, and commonly used image-based AI model explanations did not mitigate this harmful effect. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT06098950 This randomized clinical vignette study examines whether providing AI explanations to biased AI models enhances clinician diagnostic accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the challenges of achieving repeatable and accurate quantitative computed tomography (QCT) measurements in pulmonary medicine, particularly in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) studies. It discusses the barriers to widespread adoption of QCT measures, the efforts to standardize QCT acquisition protocols, and the development of key repeatability data through the NIH-funded SPIROMICS cohort.

Rationale: Cigarette smoking contributes to the risk of death through different mechanisms. Objectives: To determine how causes of and clinical features associated with death vary in tobacco cigarette users by lung function impairment. Methods: We stratified current and former tobacco cigarette users enrolled in Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) into normal spirometry, PRISm (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-2 COPD, and GOLD 3-4 COPD. Deaths were identified via longitudinal follow-up and Social Security Death Index search. Causes of death were adjudicated after a review of death certificates, medical records, and next-of-kin interviews. We tested associations between baseline clinical variables and all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Measurements and Main Results: Over a 10.1-year median follow-up, 2,200 deaths occurred among 10,132 participants (age 59.5 ± 9.0 yr; 46.6% women). Death from cardiovascular disease was most frequent in PRISm (31% of deaths). Lung cancer deaths were most frequent in GOLD 1-2 (18% of deaths vs. 9-11% in other groups). Respiratory deaths outpaced competing causes of death in GOLD 3-4, particularly when BODE index ⩾7. St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score ⩾25 was associated with higher mortality in all groups: Hazard ratio (HR), 1.48 (1.20-1.84) normal spirometry; HR, 1.40 (1.05-1.87) PRISm; HR, 1.80 (1.49-2.17) GOLD 1-2; HR, 1.65 (1.26-2.17) GOLD 3-4. History of respiratory exacerbations was associated with higher mortality in GOLD 1-2 and GOLD 3-4, quantitative emphysema in GOLD 1-2, and airway wall thickness in PRISm and GOLD 3-4. Conclusions: Leading causes of death vary by lung function impairment in tobacco cigarette users. Worse respiratory-related quality of life is associated with all-cause mortality regardless of lung function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale and Objectives: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a heterogeneous disease characterized by small airway abnormality and emphysema. We hypothesized that a voxel-wise computed tomography analytic approach would identify patterns of disease progression in smokers.Materials and Methods: We analyzed 725 smokers in spirometric GOLD stages 0-4 with two chest CTs 5 years apart. Baseline inspiration, follow-up inspiration and follow-up expiration images were spatially registered to baseline expiration so that each voxel had correspondences across all time points and respiratory phases. Voxel-wise Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) was then generated for the baseline and follow-up scans. PRM classifies lung as normal, functional small airway disease (PRMfSAD), and emphysema (PRMEMPH).Results: Subjects with low baseline PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH predominantly had an increase in PRMfSAD on follow-up; those with higher baseline PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH mostly had increases in PRMEMPH. For GOLD 0 participants (n = 419), mean 5-year increases in PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH were 0.3% for both; for GOLD 1-4 participants (n = 306), they were 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively. Eighty GOLD 0 subjects (19.1%) had overall radiologic progression (30.0% to PRMfSAD, 52.5% to PRMEMPH, and 17.5% to both); 153 GOLD 1-4 subjects (50.0%) experienced progression (17.6% to PRMfSAD, 48.4% to PRMEMPH, and 34.0% to both). In a multivariable model, both baseline PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH were associated with development of PRMEMPH on follow-up, although this relationship was diminished at higher levels of baseline PRMEMPH.Conclusion: A voxel-wise longitudinal PRM analytic approach can identify patterns of disease progression in smokers with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale and Objectives: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a heterogeneous disease characterized by small airway abnormality and emphysema. We hypothesized that a voxel-wise computed tomography analytic approach would identify patterns of disease progression in smokers.Materials and Methods: We analyzed 725 smokers in spirometric GOLD stages 0-4 with two chest CTs 5 years apart. Baseline inspiration, follow-up inspiration and follow-up expiration images were spatially registered to baseline expiration so that each voxel had correspondences across all time points and respiratory phases. Voxel-wise Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) was then generated for the baseline and follow-up scans. PRM classifies lung as normal, functional small airway disease (PRMfSAD), and emphysema (PRMEMPH).Results: Subjects with low baseline PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH predominantly had an increase in PRMfSAD on follow-up; those with higher baseline PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH mostly had increases in PRMEMPH. For GOLD 0 participants (n = 419), mean 5-year increases in PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH were 0.3% for both; for GOLD 1-4 participants (n = 306), they were 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively. Eighty GOLD 0 subjects (19.1%) had overall radiologic progression (30.0% to PRMfSAD, 52.5% to PRMEMPH, and 17.5% to both); 153 GOLD 1-4 subjects (50.0%) experienced progression (17.6% to PRMfSAD, 48.4% to PRMEMPH, and 34.0% to both). In a multivariable model, both baseline PRMfSAD and PRMEMPH were associated with development of PRMEMPH on follow-up, although this relationship was diminished at higher levels of baseline PRMEMPH.Conclusion: A voxel-wise longitudinal PRM analytic approach can identify patterns of disease progression in smokers with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale and Objectives: The longitudinal relationship between regional air trapping and emphysema remains unexplored. We have sought to demonstrate the utility of parametric response mapping (PRM), a computed tomography (CT)-based biomarker, for monitoring regional disease progression in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, linking expiratory- and inspiratory-based CT metrics over time.Materials and Methods: Inspiratory and expiratory lung CT scans were acquired from 89 COPD subjects with varying Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) status at 30 days (n = 13) or 1 year (n = 76) from baseline as part of the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) clinical trial. PRMs of CT data were used to quantify the relative volumes of normal parenchyma (PRM(Normal)), emphysema (PRM(Emph)), and functional small airways disease (PRM(fSAD)). PRM measurement variability was assessed using the 30-day interval data. Changes in PRM metrics over a 1-year period were correlated to pulmonary function (forced expiratory volume at 1 second [FEV1]). A theoretical model that simulates PRM changes from COPD was compared to experimental findings.Results: PRM metrics varied by ∼6.5% of total lung volume for PRM(Normal) and PRM(fSAD) and 1% for PRM(Emph) when testing 30-day repeatability. Over a 1-year interval, only PRM(Emph) in severe COPD subjects produced significant change (19%-21%). However, 11 of 76 subjects showed changes in PRM(fSAD) greater than variations observed from analysis of 30-day data. Mathematical model simulations agreed with experimental PRM results, suggesting fSAD is a transitional phase from normal parenchyma to emphysema.Conclusions: PRM of lung CT scans in COPD patients provides an opportunity to more precisely characterize underlying disease phenotypes, with the potential to monitor disease status and therapy response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Whether African Americans (AA) are more susceptible to COPD than non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and whether racial differences in disease phenotype exist is controversial. The objective is to determine racial differences in the extent of emphysema and airway remodeling in COPD. Methods: First, 2,500 subjects enrolled in the COPDGene study were used to evaluate racial differences in quantitative CT (QCT) parameters of% emphysema, air trapping and airway wall thickness. Independent variables studied included race, age, gender, education, BMI, pack-years, smoking status, age at smoking initiation, asthma, previous work in dusty job, CT scanner and center of recruitment. Results: Of the 1,063 subjects with GOLD Stage II-IV COPD, 200 self-reported as AA. AAs had a lower mean% emphysema (13.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.005) than NHW and proportionately less emphysema in the lower lung zones. After adjustment for covariates, there was no statistical difference by race in air trapping or airway wall thickness. Measured QCT parameters were more predictive of poor functional status in NHWs compared to AAs. Conclusions: AAs have less emphysema than NHWs but the same degree of airway disease. Additional factors not easily assessed by current QCT techniques may account for the poor functional status in AAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]