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Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)-study IV was designed to explore whether treatment with imatinib (IM) at 400 mg/day (n=400) could be optimized by doubling the dose (n=420), adding interferon (IFN) (n=430) or cytarabine (n=158) or using IM after IFN-failure (n=128). From July 2002 to March 2012, 1551 newly diagnosed patients in chronic phase were randomized into a 5-arm study. The study was powered to detect a survival difference of 5% at 5 years. After a median observation time of 9.5 years, 10-year overall survival was 82%, 10-year progression-free survival was 80% and 10-year relative survival was 92%. Survival between IM400 mg and any experimental arm was not different. In a multivariate analysis, risk group, major-route chromosomal aberrations, comorbidities, smoking and treatment center (academic vs other) influenced survival significantly, but not any form of treatment optimization. Patients reaching the molecular response milestones at 3, 6 and 12 months had a significant survival advantage. For responders, monotherapy with IM400 mg provides a close to normal life expectancy independent of the time to response. Survival is more determined by patients' and disease factors than by initial treatment selection. Although improvements are also needed for refractory disease, more life-time can currently be gained by carefully addressing non-CML determinants of survival. peerReviewed

Background and Objectives. This study was aimed at examining major cytogenetic response (MCR) as a valid predictor of the course of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) and at assessing the survival of CML patients treated with interferon alpha (IFN) in dependence on the combination of MCR (yes or no) with the baseline risk group of the New CML score. MCR was defined as a reduction of Philadelphia chromosome-positive bone marrow cells to Design and Methods. Data from individual patients with a confirmed diagnosis of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML treated with IFN were collected from 10 prospective studies in Europe and Japan. Stratified for baseline risk group, patients with a major cytogenetic response by 21 months after the start of therapy (n=171) were compared with patients achieving a minor response or less (n=487). Survival probabilities after the landmark at 21 months were compared by using the two-sided log-rank test. Results. MCR was a major predictor for low- and intermediate-risk patients (log-rank test, p Interpretation and Conclusions. Cytogenetic response per se is not a valid surrogate marker, as it is dependent on the baseline prognostic profile. The combination of risk group and cytogenetic response does, however, provide useful clinical information. The survival data presented here can serve as a benchmark for the assessment of the long-term effectiveness of imatinib.

In patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), first-line imatinib treatment leads to 8-year overall survival (OS) probabilities above 80%. Many patients die of reasons unrelated to CML. This work tackled the reassessment of prognosis under particular consideration of the probabilities of dying of CML. Analyses were based on 2290 patients with chronic phase CML treated with imatinib in six clinical trials. 'Death due to CML' was defined by death after disease progression. At 8 years, OS was 89%. Of 208 deceased patients, 44% died of CML. Higher age, more peripheral blasts, bigger spleen and low platelet counts were significantly associated with increased probabilities of dying of CML and determined a new long-term survival score with three prognostic groups. Compared with the low-risk group, the patients of the intermediate- and the high-risk group had significantly higher probabilities of dying of CML. The score was successfully validated in an independent sample of 1120 patients. In both samples, the new score differentiated probabilities of dying of CML better than the Sokal, Euro and the European Treatment and Outcome Study (EUTOS) score. The new score identified 61% low-risk patients with excellent long-term outcome and 12% high-risk patients. The new score supports the prospective assessment of long-term antileukemic efficacy and risk-adapted treatment.